2013 Positional Power Rankings: Shortstop.
2013 Positional Power Rankings: Center Field.
2013 Positional Power Rankings: Right Field.
2013 Positional Power Rankings: Left Field.
2013 Positional Power Rankings: Designated Hitter.
A note on what you’re going to see below. Below, in accordance with the series, you’ll see all the teams ranked 1 through 30, based on projected shortstop WAR. The team ranked #1 will be in a much better position than the team ranked #30. That’s how rankings work. However, how much separation is there? Between #1 and #30, a lot. Between #1 and #2, a lot. Between #2 and…well here’s a chart I made:
In terms of projected shortstop WAR in 2013, the gap between #1 and #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and #15. This isn’t, of course, great science, even if it is science. This isn’t, of course, how things are actually going to work out. But this gives you a sense of the spread, and it gives you a sense you shouldn’t care about the ranking as much as you care about the WAR. This, as you might realize, is one of the issues with prospect lists — the slope is never perfectly linear. As long as you know that going in, you won’t misinterpret what you see. Let’s get on now with the actual list, so you can see who’s #1, and who isn’t.
#1 Rockies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Troy Tulowitzki 525 .297 .371 .538 .384 21.1 -0.3 4.0 5.0
Reid Brignac 140 .238 .297 .337 .277 -6.4 0.0 0.4 0.0
Josh Rutledge 35 .286 .325 .459 .337 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .285 .354 .493 .360 14.8 -0.2 4.3 5.2
This is, probably, not going to be a very special year for the Colorado Rockies. If this is to be a special year for the Colorado Rockies, however, it’ll have to do in large part with this position. Last year, due to injury, Tulowitzki got into just 47 games. This year, recovered in spring, he’s experienced no setbacks, and over the course of his career this is a guy who’s averaged nearly 5 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Since 2009, he’s averaged nearly 6 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Tulo is amazing, and he gives the Rockies something no other team has. There are questions about the depth behind him, but there are questions about the depth behind every starting shortstop, and if the Rockies are lucky, they won’t need to call on this depth that much.
#2 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jose Reyes 490 .293 .350 .447 .341 9.6 1.6 -2.3 3.2
Maicer Izturis 175 .266 .330 .368 .307 -1.3 0.1 -0.5 0.6
Emilio Bonifacio 35 .256 .321 .336 .291 -0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .285 .344 .421 .330 7.5 1.9 -3.1 3.9
Jose Reyes just played in 160 games. Historically, he hasn’t been quite that durable, but Izturis is a hell of a substitute, and of course when Reyes is healthy and playing, there aren’t a lot of things he can’t do. He just tripled a dozen times while drawing more walks than he had strikeouts. The Blue Jays are being talked about as a potential American League East favorite, and the trade with the Marlins is a big reason why, because Reyes is a big-time player at a big-time position. Having R.A. Dickey doesn’t hurt, and having all the other talent doesn’t hurt either, but there aren’t many shortstops like Reyes, and the Blue Jays are banking on that.
#3 Nationals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ian Desmond 595 .270 .317 .432 .323 4.0 0.8 0.3 3.3
Danny Espinosa 56 .237 .311 .400 .308 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3
Steve Lombardozzi 49 .265 .316 .367 .299 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2
Total 700 .267 .317 .425 .320 3.1 0.8 0.8 3.7
Desmond was just a 5.4-WAR player, in only 130 games. That is outstanding! He also doubled his power output and struck out nearly four times for every unintentional walk. So the forecasts are seeing a step back, even though they still think Desmond is a hell of a player. Of note is that his swing rate jumped from 45% to 54%. There was a change in approach, behind Desmond’s change in performance, and that might lead one to think it’s more sustainable. If it is, the Nationals will be even better. If Desmond regresses, the Nationals’ shortstop situation will be only quite good.
#4 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Asdrubal Cabrera 595 .271 .336 .423 .330 9.1 0.0 -4.5 3.2
Mike Aviles 91 .260 .296 .392 .299 -0.9 0.0 0.3 0.4
Juan Diaz 14 .234 .276 .350 .275 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .269 .330 .418 .324 7.8 0.0 -4.1 3.6
There’s not much question about Cabrera’s offensive level. However, shortstops don’t only play offense, and Cabrera’s defending is a little more of a mystery. According to UZR, for his career, he’s been about 34 runs below average. According to DRS, for his career, he’s been about one run above average. What you’re seeing here is a negative defensive projection, but depending on your belief, you might think he should be more negative or more positive. So this 4th ranking comes with error bars, but what’s most important is that, for the Indians, shortstop isn’t a problem. Cabrera swings a solid bat, and that establishes a high baseline.
#5 Cubs
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Starlin Castro 595 .293 .337 .440 .333 6.8 -0.1 -0.9 3.4
Brent Lillibridge 56 .220 .283 .336 .273 -2.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0
Luis Valbuena 49 .246 .322 .381 .308 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.2
Total 700 .284 .332 .428 .327 4.3 -0.1 -1.2 3.6
Castro seldom walks, he’s prone to lapses in the field, and he isn’t much of an effective stolen-base threat. It is beyond easy to focus on the things that Starlin Castro doesn’t do well. But he’s a contact hitter with increasing power who plays a fine shortstop and who’s days away from turning just 23 years old. Last season he played in every game, and the season before he very nearly did the same. Castro might be one of those guys who frustrates because he doesn’t perform at his perceived ceiling, but his actual performance level is great, even if he doesn’t improve. And there’s reason to believe he’s improving.
#6 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Elvis Andrus 651 .277 .349 .366 .318 -3.7 1.9 5.6 3.4
Leury Garcia 28 .255 .296 .349 .281 -1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Jurickson Profar 21 .255 .327 .399 .315 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .276 .346 .367 .317 -4.9 2.0 5.7 3.5
The Rangers project very well at shortstop, and their top prospect — one of the very top prospects in baseball — is a shortstop, and the prospect isn’t far off. The Rangers, in this way, are fortunate ones. Andrus owns a career major-league OPS of .695. He owns a career minor-league OPS of .704. There exists some possibility that his offense has already more or less topped out. But he’s still just 24, so there could be more power, and even with things as is, Andrus isn’t a guy to complain about. Andrus, rather, is a competitive advantage, and a core part of a solid team.
#7 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yunel Escobar 595 .260 .329 .359 .304 -2.1 -0.5 2.6 2.8
Ben Zobrist 70 .261 .363 .441 .348 2.2 0.0 0.3 0.6
Sean Rodriguez 35 .232 .310 .380 .303 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2
Total 700 .259 .331 .368 .308 0.0 -0.5 3.1 3.5
We know that Escobar is durable, and we know that Escobar is well above average in the field. Those are the certainties, but Escobar’s offense has been all over the map and of course there’s the rest of the package to take into consideration. If you figure that, at the plate, Escobar splits the middle, he’ll be fine, and the Rays won’t have to worry about their shortstop performance. They’ll have to worry about their shortstop’s other things, but here we’re not projecting attitude. Here we care about numbers, and the Rays care about numbers, and the Rays acquired Escobar on purpose. There are far worse shortstops, probably.
#8 Dodgers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Hanley Ramirez 490 .269 .341 .444 .337 11.3 0.6 -5.4 2.9
Dee Gordon 105 .255 .300 .316 .271 -3.1 0.5 -1.0 0.1
Nick Punto 105 .230 .323 .316 .288 -1.7 0.1 0.6 0.4
Total 700 .261 .332 .406 .320 6.5 1.1 -5.7 3.4
At issue here is how much Hanley Ramirez actually plays at shortstop, given the Dodgers’ third-base situation. Behind Ramirez, Gordon is a player people have loved who doesn’t project well at all, because he hasn’t performed well at all. Punto is adequate defensively and versatile and can’t hit for any beans. Ramirez is clearly a bat-first player who isn’t going to slug in the .500s anymore, but as someone who can post a well above-average wRC+, he works as an offense-first shortstop. And there might be something to his playing better away from the Marlins, in a more competitive setting.
#9 Phillies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jimmy Rollins 595 .255 .322 .412 .318 1.3 1.8 0.3 3.1
Freddy Galvis 70 .253 .290 .370 .289 -1.5 -0.1 0.6 0.2
Yuniesky Betancourt 35 .257 .286 .388 .287 -0.8 0.0 -0.4 0.0
Total 700 .255 .317 .406 .313 -1.0 1.6 0.5 3.4
What we have here is a contact-hitting starting shortstop with some power and terrific defense. Rollins was just a five-win player, and before that he was a four-win player. One concern is that his strikeout rate just jumped. A bigger concern is that he’s 34 years old, which is the oldest he’s ever been. You can’t predict when an aging middle infielder is going to start going downhill in a hurry. But most recently Rollins was great, and what matters the most is what happened most recently. Rollins could realistically be better than this, which would help propel the Phillies into legitimate contention.
#10 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
J.J. Hardy 595 .255 .304 .422 .312 -3.2 -0.6 6.3 3.0
Alexi Casilla 84 .249 .306 .339 .283 -2.4 0.3 -0.2 0.1
Manny Machado 21 .252 .312 .415 .315 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .254 .305 .412 .309 -5.7 -0.3 6.2 3.3
This is a somewhat lofty standing for a team whose starting shortstop just posted a .282 OBP. But the first time Hardy posted a wRC+ in the 70s, he came back with a wRC+ of 103. The next time Hardy posted a wRC+ in the 70s, he came back with a wRC+ of 94. His career level is 95, he’s not old, and his profile isn’t different. Hardy’s a good defensive shortstop with power, and that gives the Orioles an above-average position player at a critical position. Even without walks, even without a good BABIP, Hardy makes it work. And he just played in 158 games, easing some concerns about his durability.
#11 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Hiroyuk Nakajima 420 .272 .328 .377 .308 -1.2 -0.6 0.3 1.8
Jed Lowrie 245 .250 .330 .418 .325 2.7 -0.2 -0.8 1.3
Adam Rosales 35 .236 .298 .363 .288 -0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .263 .327 .390 .313 0.9 -0.9 -0.6 3.2
On one hand, this is tricky — Nakajima is a fresh import, and we don’t know what he’s going to do as an everyday player. At present, his stock in spring training is sinking, but it’s just spring training, and Ichiro didn’t impress in his first spring training, either. So Nakajima might be perfectly fine. If he isn’t, that would be bad news, but the A’s have Lowrie as positional insurance. If Nakajima is a disaster, the A’s won’t play that much Nakajima at shortstop, helping to mitigate their downside. Not that Lowrie has historically been the most durable, reliable player, and after him things get messy, but this isn’t an awful setup. And Nakajima could hit, and/or field.
#12 Braves
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Andrelton Simmons 595 .276 .324 .384 .308 -3.2 -0.8 5.5 2.9
Paul Janish 84 .231 .301 .320 .277 -2.6 0.0 0.4 0.2
Ramiro Pena 21 .238 .296 .310 .268 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .270 .321 .375 .303 -6.5 -0.8 6.0 3.1
Here’s a case with a lot of upside, because just last season Simmons was worth 2.2 WAR in fewer than 200 plate appearances. He didn’t hit a lot in the minors, and the projections foresee an offensive decline from last year’s level, but offense also isn’t Simmons’ calling card. This defensive projection is likely modest, as Simmons might be the best defensive shortstop in baseball. Right now, he might be a defensive +15, raising him another win. And if he actually hits a little, suddenly he’s a borderline star player at a young age. This is one of the reasons why the Braves might be able to keep up with the Nationals.
#13 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Erick Aybar 595 .276 .320 .395 .311 0.5 1.4 -0.6 2.9
Andrew Romine 91 .244 .302 .319 .276 -2.5 0.0 -0.1 0.2
Luis Rodriguez 14 .252 .328 .354 .300 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .271 .318 .385 .306 -2.0 1.4 -0.8 3.1
Aybar’s not a mystery. He’s going to make contact with almost everything, he’s going to put balls in play on the ground, and he’s going to run. He’s going to field his position with competence, and he’s going to play most of the time, which is good, given the lack of ability behind him. That Aybar doesn’t walk is offset by the fact that Aybar doesn’t really strike out, and his modest power/speed combo makes him acceptably solid. Aybar is a very classically Angels player, and, classically, the Angels were good.
#14 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jhonny Peralta 595 .259 .322 .406 .315 -1.1 -1.7 2.8 2.7
Ramon Santiago 105 .249 .316 .347 .292 -2.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .257 .321 .397 .312 -3.3 -1.8 2.8 3.0
The Tigers spent some of the offseason searching for a shortstop upgrade, but ultimately they settled on keeping the guy they already had. The guy they already had is perfectly adequate, and though there are questions about his defense, he has reportedly worked himself into better shape at a reduced weight. There’s nothing outstanding about Jhonny Peralta, but there’s also nothing disastrous, so an upgrade wasn’t necessary for a team that plans to contend. Peralta ought to be a player who doesn’t hold the Tigers back.
#15 Reds
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Zack Cozart 595 .251 .299 .396 .301 -7.9 0.6 4.4 2.4
Jason Donald 105 .240 .308 .368 .299 -1.6 0.0 -0.5 0.3
Total 700 .249 .300 .392 .301 -9.5 0.6 3.9 2.7
Cozart is projected to be just about identical to what he was last season, when he was worth 2.7 WAR in 600 plate appearances. There’s not a lot of discipline here — Cozart finished with 113 strikeouts and 31 walks — and that’s reflected in his low projected OBP, but Cozart does make above-average contact and he helps himself and the team in the field. We’re at the section of these rankings where the players are fine without being super helpful or super troublesome. That describes Cozart, and thus that describes the Reds’ shortstop situation. If Cozart gets injured, look out. If just about any starting shortstop in the league gets injured, look out.
#16 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alexei Ramirez 595 .267 .309 .391 .304 -8.5 0.0 3.9 2.3
Angel Sanchez 105 .261 .324 .344 .295 -2.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.2
Total 700 .266 .312 .384 .303 -10.8 -0.1 3.5 2.5
There was a time that Ramirez was a legitimate star, even if nobody knew about it. Dave Cameron once wrote about how Ramirez might’ve been the best shortstop in the American League. But last year, though Ramirez was healthy, he lost almost all of his walks and he additionally lost a chunk of his power without making any gains. Now he’s more into his 30s and we may simply be observing the decline of a quality player. The projections see a bit of an offensive bounceback, which the White Sox would appreciate, but Ramirez probably isn’t the player he was. Eventually, they never are. Ramirez is simply fine enough.
#17 Padres
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Everth Cabrera 525 .241 .315 .324 .285 -7.8 3.4 -1.4 1.8
Logan Forsythe 105 .242 .330 .355 .304 0.0 0.1 -0.8 0.4
Alexi Amarista 70 .252 .294 .369 .288 -0.9 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .242 .315 .333 .288 -8.7 3.4 -2.3 2.4
Cabrera isn’t a great defender, he doesn’t make a ton of contact, and he doesn’t hit for power since he puts almost everything on the ground. He’s not all that young, and he’s saved by the fact that he can walk and that he gets a park adjustment from Petco. He’s also saved by the fact that he doesn’t have a quality backup, as Forsythe isn’t a shortstop for a good team. Cabrera has averaged 1.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances over his modest career, and I think that gets the right point across. If you don’t know a lot about Everth Cabrera, you probably won’t need to.
#18 Mets
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ruben Tejada 560 .267 .328 .340 .296 -6.1 -0.3 2.3 2.2
Omar Quintanilla 119 .241 .305 .353 .285 -2.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.2
Brandon Hicks 21 .207 .282 .356 .279 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .261 .323 .343 .294 -9.1 -0.4 1.9 2.4
Young shortstop, contact, limited power, defensive adequacy. I’m getting tired of writing about this although in fairness I’ve been sitting in one spot in a hotel lobby for hours and I might be in need of a break. (Ed. note: upon updating this post, the ranking order shifted, so the caption order shifted, so that explains why this caption began as it did. I have chosen to include this note instead of just changing the caption into something else.) Last season Tejada doubled his career home-run total, by hitting one. He had some injury problems but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be fragile or not down the road. He is patient, so he has the ability to draw a walk, but pitchers don’t have many reasons to walk him. Tejada’s a startable player who’s also an upgrade-able player.
#19 Brewers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jean Segura 595 .272 .321 .388 .307 -4.1 1.5 -2.3 2.2
Alex Gonzalez 70 .238 .280 .380 .286 -1.6 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Jeff Bianchi 35 .256 .304 .342 .282 -0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .268 .316 .385 .303 -6.7 1.4 -2.3 2.4
Last year, Segura was legitimately above average in double-A at 22. But he was in double-A, and his major-league experience was far from particularly impressive. He put two-thirds of his balls in play on the ground, and he doesn’t have much power or extraordinary defensive ability. Segura is something of a low-ceiling shortstop, made more remarkable by his age and historical prospect hype. That he makes contact keeps him from being an offensive nightmare but this year, at shortstop, the Brewers are striving for adequacy.
#20 Pirates
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Clint Barmes 560 .237 .292 .359 .283 -12.5 -0.7 6.0 1.8
Josh Harrison 105 .262 .303 .380 .298 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.3
Jordy Mercer 35 .241 .294 .373 .292 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .241 .294 .363 .286 -14.2 -0.8 5.8 2.3
One year Clint Barmes posted a .342 wOBA. The next year he knocked 23 dingers. Barmes isn’t on the Rockies anymore, and now he’s 34 years old. His last three years look like Brendan Ryan’s last three years, and you’ll notice you haven’t yet seen Brendan Ryan and the Mariners on this list. Barmes is gifted in the field, and that’s the reason he stays in the lineup, but you wonder how much more he might’ve been able to accomplish had he not elected to play all the time with a partially broken bat. You can use another bat, Clint Barmes. Some bats aren’t broken and terrible. For the record, this is a substantial projected wOBA bounceback. Last year was really bad.
#21 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alcides Escobar 595 .271 .315 .370 .298 -8.4 2.0 -0.8 2.0
Elliot Johnson 91 .246 .303 .366 .294 -1.6 0.0 -0.5 0.2
Irving Falu 14 .266 .309 .351 .289 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .268 .313 .369 .297 -10.3 2.0 -1.3 2.2
Young shortstop, contact, groundballs, defensive adequacy. We’ve already talked about this sort of player, and it’s a safe sort of player without wild, lofty upside. Escobar should be steady for the Royals, and he should stay on the field, but he’ll be as good as his batting average and his career mark is .266. Considered a part of the Royals’ young core, Escobar isn’t about to make or break what the Royals hope will be a competitive season. He’s a guy at a critical spot, but he’s not a critical player.
#22 Giants
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brandon Crawford 595 .238 .302 .353 .286 -10.7 -1.4 4.5 2.0
Joaquin Arias 70 .259 .294 .360 .282 -1.5 0.1 -0.2 0.2
Tony Abreu 35 .255 .289 .373 .289 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .241 .300 .354 .286 -12.8 -1.4 4.3 2.2
Young shortstop, limited power, below-average contact offset by above-average defense. Crawford is a defensive specialist who isn’t a complete offensive black hole, thanks to his ability to draw the occasional walk and drill the occasional extra-base hit. Crawford did get better at the plate in the second half, jumping from a .271 wOBA to a .300 wOBA. That wasn’t a BABIP thing, so Crawford might have a little life. But his strengths and his weaknesses are very well known. This is not the guy who’s going to carry the Giants’ lineup, nor would anyone ever make that accusation.
#23 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Derek Jeter 490 .283 .342 .378 .316 -0.9 -0.5 -4.2 1.7
Eduardo Nunez 175 .266 .309 .366 .294 -3.5 0.5 -1.3 0.3
Jayson Nix 35 .226 .293 .387 .296 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .276 .331 .375 .310 -5.0 0.0 -5.7 2.1
It’s Derek Jeter! Now 38 years old and recovering from injury. He’s still projected to be a decent bat, but he’s projected to be a worse bat, and his defense isn’t improving. Note the playing time, as well — Jeter might see significant time at designated hitter, with Eduardo Nunez filling in. There’s life in Nunez’s bat but there isn’t a lot else to his overall skillset. Nix is a guy who might be on the team at some point. If Jeter comes back and looks something like his old self it’ll be laughable that they once ranked #23 on this list, but he is old and he was just hurt, and he’s Derek Jeter in the field. This probably isn’t a team strength.
#24 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Stephen Drew 490 .249 .325 .391 .313 -3.7 -0.7 -0.8 1.7
Pedro Ciriaco 154 .263 .284 .358 .277 -5.6 0.2 0.4 0.2
Jose Iglesias 56 .253 .302 .315 .274 -2.2 0.1 0.6 0.1
Total 700 .252 .314 .377 .302 -11.4 -0.4 0.2 2.0
One time, Drew slugged .502. One other time, Drew was worth 5.1 WAR. One of those times was 2008, and the other of those times was 2010. The forecasts haven’t completely forgotten about Drew’s performance upside, but it’s been a while, and Drew also doesn’t have durability on his side. Behind Drew, Ciriaco doesn’t have much of anything on his side, and as much as the Red Sox love Iglesias’ defense, that’s how much nobody likes Iglesias’ bat. You could say this is a volatile position for Boston, but this spot in the rankings seems just about appropriate. Other teams have far better situations, even if Boston’s isn’t the worst.
#25 Diamondbacks
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Cliff Pennington 560 .256 .319 .374 .304 -8.5 0.5 1.0 1.9
Willie Bloomquist 91 .264 .304 .350 .286 -2.7 -0.3 -0.8 0.0
Didi Gregorius 49 .264 .303 .384 .296 -1.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .258 .316 .371 .301 -12.2 0.1 0.4 2.0
A big deal was made about the Diamondbacks trading for Gregorius, but right now he’s not going to be their starter. He’s also presumably not ready to be their starter, which makes it a good thing they have Pennington around. Pennington just slugged .311, which is awful, and he had Brendan Ryan’s wRC+, but that was basically all BABIP so Pennington should bounce back some. He stands to be an uninteresting part of a very interesting team, but at least he shouldn’t be a black hole. Willie Bloomquist is now 35 years old. He just got caught stealing ten times in 17 attempts. Now you know those things about Willie Bloomquist.
#26 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brendan Ryan 560 .225 .295 .307 .268 -17.0 0.7 7.1 1.6
Robert Andino 119 .230 .295 .322 .275 -3.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.2
Carlos Triunfel 21 .246 .287 .336 .273 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .226 .295 .310 .270 -20.5 0.6 6.6 1.8
As it was with Clint Barmes, so it is with Brendan Ryan. Ryan is a fantastic defensive shortstop, even at his age, but he offers nothing at the plate aside from his occasional ability to coax a walk. There will be stretches where he looks productive because he hits for a decent average, but his average will be empty, and unless tweaks to his swing make a real difference, he’s going to hit a maddening amount of pop-ups. The Mariners like Andino some and he’ll get time if and when Eric Wedge finds Ryan obnoxious, but if the Mariners could tolerate Ryan’s bat before because of his defense, then he’ll find time with something of a bounceback. Half of the time, Ryan is a real treat to watch. Half of the time, Ryan’s when you get up to use the restroom or make a phone call.
#27 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ronny Cedeno 385 .241 .295 .355 .282 -9.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.7
Marwin Gonzalez 245 .252 .299 .346 .282 -6.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.4
Jake Elmore 70 .256 .338 .331 .299 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.2
Total 700 .246 .301 .350 .284 -16.7 -0.6 -0.4 1.4
The original blurb here talked about a brewing competition between Marwin Gonzalez and Tyler Greene. Since then, the Astros have grabbed Cedeno, and it looks like Greene won’t make the roster. Cedeno was dropped by the Cardinals, who prefer Pete Kozma. So that says a lot about Ronny Cedeno. Gonzalez is pretty much exactly what you think he is, and he might end up getting a lot of time. Whatever happens, shortstop isn’t going to be a strength for the Astros, because the Astros aren’t going to have strengths. They’ll have relative strengths, to the rest of the positions on the Astros. So there’s that going for them.
#28 Marlins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adeiny Hechavarria 560 .251 .292 .353 .281 -15.2 -0.6 0.7 1.0
Donovan Solano 70 .258 .304 .341 .283 -1.8 0.0 0.2 0.2
Nick Green 70 .238 .290 .357 .280 -2.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.1
Total 700 .251 .293 .352 .282 -18.9 -0.6 0.4 1.2
Hechavarria’s young and he’s been a decent prospect, but his triple-A numbers are inflated by the ballpark environment and his approach is going to limit his offensive upside. He posted a .637 OPS in double-A, and a .509 OPS in single-A, and he just put up a .645 OPS in a big-league cup of coffee. As always, there’s upside for Hechavarria to be a half-decent non-power hitter, but without incredible defense he looks like he could be fringey, so, basically, hey, the Marlins are near the bottom at another position. Stop the internet presses. Additionally, move minor-league teams away from Las Vegas.
#29 Cardinals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Pete Kozma 525 .227 .285 .322 .265 -19.3 -0.2 2.2 0.6
Daniel Descalso 175 .253 .324 .360 .298 -1.9 0.0 -0.7 0.5
Total 700 .233 .295 .331 .273 -21.1 -0.2 1.5 1.2
The Cardinals insist they’re happy with Kozma for the time being, what with Rafael Furcal now unavailable. Kozma is coming off an impressive cup of coffee. Something I didn’t know is that Kozma is a former first-round pick, having been selected 18th in 2007, but something I did know is that Kozma posted a .610 OPS in triple-A over nearly a thousand trips to the plate. He’s at .652 in his minor-league career, with decent power but not much else. He’s not a whiz, laterally or with the glove, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Cardinals shortly re-enter the shortstop trade market. They could potentially be stubborn, or Kozma could potentially impress, because what we’re thinking about are averages and half the time the average is beat. But Kozma’s short-term track record doesn’t match up with his long-term track record, and it’s the long-term track records that are most meaningful. The Cardinals intend to be good, and shortstop could easily be a real problem for them.
#30 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Pedro Florimon 525 .234 .290 .333 .275 -16.4 -0.8 -0.5 0.6
Jamey Carroll 105 .267 .341 .330 .301 -1.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4
Eduardo Escobar 70 .242 .285 .337 .273 -2.3 -0.1 0.3 0.1
Total 700 .239 .297 .333 .279 -19.9 -1.0 0.0 1.0
Florimon was once a waiver grab, and he’s a 26-year-old with a .675 minor league OPS. He didn’t hit in the majors, but he did field a bit and the Twins don’t have superior options so here’s Florimon again, standing to get a ton of playing time. He’s coming off one home run and 58% groundballs, which tells you plenty. To his credit, he’s not a hacker, and he is good with the glove, but this is another low-OBP, low-slugging middle infielder who’s going to look okay during the stretches when he’s hitting .275. Try not to think about when he isn’t in one of those stretches.
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In terms of projected shortstop WAR in 2013, the gap between #1 and #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and #15. This isn’t, of course, great science, even if it is science. This isn’t, of course, how things are actually going to work out. But this gives you a sense of the spread, and it gives you a sense you shouldn’t care about the ranking as much as you care about the WAR. This, as you might realize, is one of the issues with prospect lists — the slope is never perfectly linear. As long as you know that going in, you won’t misinterpret what you see. Let’s get on now with the actual list, so you can see who’s #1, and who isn’t.
#1 Rockies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Troy Tulowitzki 525 .297 .371 .538 .384 21.1 -0.3 4.0 5.0
Reid Brignac 140 .238 .297 .337 .277 -6.4 0.0 0.4 0.0
Josh Rutledge 35 .286 .325 .459 .337 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .285 .354 .493 .360 14.8 -0.2 4.3 5.2
This is, probably, not going to be a very special year for the Colorado Rockies. If this is to be a special year for the Colorado Rockies, however, it’ll have to do in large part with this position. Last year, due to injury, Tulowitzki got into just 47 games. This year, recovered in spring, he’s experienced no setbacks, and over the course of his career this is a guy who’s averaged nearly 5 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Since 2009, he’s averaged nearly 6 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Tulo is amazing, and he gives the Rockies something no other team has. There are questions about the depth behind him, but there are questions about the depth behind every starting shortstop, and if the Rockies are lucky, they won’t need to call on this depth that much.
#2 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jose Reyes 490 .293 .350 .447 .341 9.6 1.6 -2.3 3.2
Maicer Izturis 175 .266 .330 .368 .307 -1.3 0.1 -0.5 0.6
Emilio Bonifacio 35 .256 .321 .336 .291 -0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .285 .344 .421 .330 7.5 1.9 -3.1 3.9
Jose Reyes just played in 160 games. Historically, he hasn’t been quite that durable, but Izturis is a hell of a substitute, and of course when Reyes is healthy and playing, there aren’t a lot of things he can’t do. He just tripled a dozen times while drawing more walks than he had strikeouts. The Blue Jays are being talked about as a potential American League East favorite, and the trade with the Marlins is a big reason why, because Reyes is a big-time player at a big-time position. Having R.A. Dickey doesn’t hurt, and having all the other talent doesn’t hurt either, but there aren’t many shortstops like Reyes, and the Blue Jays are banking on that.
#3 Nationals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ian Desmond 595 .270 .317 .432 .323 4.0 0.8 0.3 3.3
Danny Espinosa 56 .237 .311 .400 .308 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3
Steve Lombardozzi 49 .265 .316 .367 .299 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2
Total 700 .267 .317 .425 .320 3.1 0.8 0.8 3.7
Desmond was just a 5.4-WAR player, in only 130 games. That is outstanding! He also doubled his power output and struck out nearly four times for every unintentional walk. So the forecasts are seeing a step back, even though they still think Desmond is a hell of a player. Of note is that his swing rate jumped from 45% to 54%. There was a change in approach, behind Desmond’s change in performance, and that might lead one to think it’s more sustainable. If it is, the Nationals will be even better. If Desmond regresses, the Nationals’ shortstop situation will be only quite good.
#4 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Asdrubal Cabrera 595 .271 .336 .423 .330 9.1 0.0 -4.5 3.2
Mike Aviles 91 .260 .296 .392 .299 -0.9 0.0 0.3 0.4
Juan Diaz 14 .234 .276 .350 .275 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .269 .330 .418 .324 7.8 0.0 -4.1 3.6
There’s not much question about Cabrera’s offensive level. However, shortstops don’t only play offense, and Cabrera’s defending is a little more of a mystery. According to UZR, for his career, he’s been about 34 runs below average. According to DRS, for his career, he’s been about one run above average. What you’re seeing here is a negative defensive projection, but depending on your belief, you might think he should be more negative or more positive. So this 4th ranking comes with error bars, but what’s most important is that, for the Indians, shortstop isn’t a problem. Cabrera swings a solid bat, and that establishes a high baseline.
#5 Cubs
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Starlin Castro 595 .293 .337 .440 .333 6.8 -0.1 -0.9 3.4
Brent Lillibridge 56 .220 .283 .336 .273 -2.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0
Luis Valbuena 49 .246 .322 .381 .308 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.2
Total 700 .284 .332 .428 .327 4.3 -0.1 -1.2 3.6
Castro seldom walks, he’s prone to lapses in the field, and he isn’t much of an effective stolen-base threat. It is beyond easy to focus on the things that Starlin Castro doesn’t do well. But he’s a contact hitter with increasing power who plays a fine shortstop and who’s days away from turning just 23 years old. Last season he played in every game, and the season before he very nearly did the same. Castro might be one of those guys who frustrates because he doesn’t perform at his perceived ceiling, but his actual performance level is great, even if he doesn’t improve. And there’s reason to believe he’s improving.
#6 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Elvis Andrus 651 .277 .349 .366 .318 -3.7 1.9 5.6 3.4
Leury Garcia 28 .255 .296 .349 .281 -1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Jurickson Profar 21 .255 .327 .399 .315 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .276 .346 .367 .317 -4.9 2.0 5.7 3.5
The Rangers project very well at shortstop, and their top prospect — one of the very top prospects in baseball — is a shortstop, and the prospect isn’t far off. The Rangers, in this way, are fortunate ones. Andrus owns a career major-league OPS of .695. He owns a career minor-league OPS of .704. There exists some possibility that his offense has already more or less topped out. But he’s still just 24, so there could be more power, and even with things as is, Andrus isn’t a guy to complain about. Andrus, rather, is a competitive advantage, and a core part of a solid team.
#7 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yunel Escobar 595 .260 .329 .359 .304 -2.1 -0.5 2.6 2.8
Ben Zobrist 70 .261 .363 .441 .348 2.2 0.0 0.3 0.6
Sean Rodriguez 35 .232 .310 .380 .303 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2
Total 700 .259 .331 .368 .308 0.0 -0.5 3.1 3.5
We know that Escobar is durable, and we know that Escobar is well above average in the field. Those are the certainties, but Escobar’s offense has been all over the map and of course there’s the rest of the package to take into consideration. If you figure that, at the plate, Escobar splits the middle, he’ll be fine, and the Rays won’t have to worry about their shortstop performance. They’ll have to worry about their shortstop’s other things, but here we’re not projecting attitude. Here we care about numbers, and the Rays care about numbers, and the Rays acquired Escobar on purpose. There are far worse shortstops, probably.
#8 Dodgers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Hanley Ramirez 490 .269 .341 .444 .337 11.3 0.6 -5.4 2.9
Dee Gordon 105 .255 .300 .316 .271 -3.1 0.5 -1.0 0.1
Nick Punto 105 .230 .323 .316 .288 -1.7 0.1 0.6 0.4
Total 700 .261 .332 .406 .320 6.5 1.1 -5.7 3.4
At issue here is how much Hanley Ramirez actually plays at shortstop, given the Dodgers’ third-base situation. Behind Ramirez, Gordon is a player people have loved who doesn’t project well at all, because he hasn’t performed well at all. Punto is adequate defensively and versatile and can’t hit for any beans. Ramirez is clearly a bat-first player who isn’t going to slug in the .500s anymore, but as someone who can post a well above-average wRC+, he works as an offense-first shortstop. And there might be something to his playing better away from the Marlins, in a more competitive setting.
#9 Phillies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jimmy Rollins 595 .255 .322 .412 .318 1.3 1.8 0.3 3.1
Freddy Galvis 70 .253 .290 .370 .289 -1.5 -0.1 0.6 0.2
Yuniesky Betancourt 35 .257 .286 .388 .287 -0.8 0.0 -0.4 0.0
Total 700 .255 .317 .406 .313 -1.0 1.6 0.5 3.4
What we have here is a contact-hitting starting shortstop with some power and terrific defense. Rollins was just a five-win player, and before that he was a four-win player. One concern is that his strikeout rate just jumped. A bigger concern is that he’s 34 years old, which is the oldest he’s ever been. You can’t predict when an aging middle infielder is going to start going downhill in a hurry. But most recently Rollins was great, and what matters the most is what happened most recently. Rollins could realistically be better than this, which would help propel the Phillies into legitimate contention.
#10 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
J.J. Hardy 595 .255 .304 .422 .312 -3.2 -0.6 6.3 3.0
Alexi Casilla 84 .249 .306 .339 .283 -2.4 0.3 -0.2 0.1
Manny Machado 21 .252 .312 .415 .315 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .254 .305 .412 .309 -5.7 -0.3 6.2 3.3
This is a somewhat lofty standing for a team whose starting shortstop just posted a .282 OBP. But the first time Hardy posted a wRC+ in the 70s, he came back with a wRC+ of 103. The next time Hardy posted a wRC+ in the 70s, he came back with a wRC+ of 94. His career level is 95, he’s not old, and his profile isn’t different. Hardy’s a good defensive shortstop with power, and that gives the Orioles an above-average position player at a critical position. Even without walks, even without a good BABIP, Hardy makes it work. And he just played in 158 games, easing some concerns about his durability.
#11 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Hiroyuk Nakajima 420 .272 .328 .377 .308 -1.2 -0.6 0.3 1.8
Jed Lowrie 245 .250 .330 .418 .325 2.7 -0.2 -0.8 1.3
Adam Rosales 35 .236 .298 .363 .288 -0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .263 .327 .390 .313 0.9 -0.9 -0.6 3.2
On one hand, this is tricky — Nakajima is a fresh import, and we don’t know what he’s going to do as an everyday player. At present, his stock in spring training is sinking, but it’s just spring training, and Ichiro didn’t impress in his first spring training, either. So Nakajima might be perfectly fine. If he isn’t, that would be bad news, but the A’s have Lowrie as positional insurance. If Nakajima is a disaster, the A’s won’t play that much Nakajima at shortstop, helping to mitigate their downside. Not that Lowrie has historically been the most durable, reliable player, and after him things get messy, but this isn’t an awful setup. And Nakajima could hit, and/or field.
#12 Braves
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Andrelton Simmons 595 .276 .324 .384 .308 -3.2 -0.8 5.5 2.9
Paul Janish 84 .231 .301 .320 .277 -2.6 0.0 0.4 0.2
Ramiro Pena 21 .238 .296 .310 .268 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .270 .321 .375 .303 -6.5 -0.8 6.0 3.1
Here’s a case with a lot of upside, because just last season Simmons was worth 2.2 WAR in fewer than 200 plate appearances. He didn’t hit a lot in the minors, and the projections foresee an offensive decline from last year’s level, but offense also isn’t Simmons’ calling card. This defensive projection is likely modest, as Simmons might be the best defensive shortstop in baseball. Right now, he might be a defensive +15, raising him another win. And if he actually hits a little, suddenly he’s a borderline star player at a young age. This is one of the reasons why the Braves might be able to keep up with the Nationals.
#13 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Erick Aybar 595 .276 .320 .395 .311 0.5 1.4 -0.6 2.9
Andrew Romine 91 .244 .302 .319 .276 -2.5 0.0 -0.1 0.2
Luis Rodriguez 14 .252 .328 .354 .300 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .271 .318 .385 .306 -2.0 1.4 -0.8 3.1
Aybar’s not a mystery. He’s going to make contact with almost everything, he’s going to put balls in play on the ground, and he’s going to run. He’s going to field his position with competence, and he’s going to play most of the time, which is good, given the lack of ability behind him. That Aybar doesn’t walk is offset by the fact that Aybar doesn’t really strike out, and his modest power/speed combo makes him acceptably solid. Aybar is a very classically Angels player, and, classically, the Angels were good.
#14 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jhonny Peralta 595 .259 .322 .406 .315 -1.1 -1.7 2.8 2.7
Ramon Santiago 105 .249 .316 .347 .292 -2.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .257 .321 .397 .312 -3.3 -1.8 2.8 3.0
The Tigers spent some of the offseason searching for a shortstop upgrade, but ultimately they settled on keeping the guy they already had. The guy they already had is perfectly adequate, and though there are questions about his defense, he has reportedly worked himself into better shape at a reduced weight. There’s nothing outstanding about Jhonny Peralta, but there’s also nothing disastrous, so an upgrade wasn’t necessary for a team that plans to contend. Peralta ought to be a player who doesn’t hold the Tigers back.
#15 Reds
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Zack Cozart 595 .251 .299 .396 .301 -7.9 0.6 4.4 2.4
Jason Donald 105 .240 .308 .368 .299 -1.6 0.0 -0.5 0.3
Total 700 .249 .300 .392 .301 -9.5 0.6 3.9 2.7
Cozart is projected to be just about identical to what he was last season, when he was worth 2.7 WAR in 600 plate appearances. There’s not a lot of discipline here — Cozart finished with 113 strikeouts and 31 walks — and that’s reflected in his low projected OBP, but Cozart does make above-average contact and he helps himself and the team in the field. We’re at the section of these rankings where the players are fine without being super helpful or super troublesome. That describes Cozart, and thus that describes the Reds’ shortstop situation. If Cozart gets injured, look out. If just about any starting shortstop in the league gets injured, look out.
#16 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alexei Ramirez 595 .267 .309 .391 .304 -8.5 0.0 3.9 2.3
Angel Sanchez 105 .261 .324 .344 .295 -2.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.2
Total 700 .266 .312 .384 .303 -10.8 -0.1 3.5 2.5
There was a time that Ramirez was a legitimate star, even if nobody knew about it. Dave Cameron once wrote about how Ramirez might’ve been the best shortstop in the American League. But last year, though Ramirez was healthy, he lost almost all of his walks and he additionally lost a chunk of his power without making any gains. Now he’s more into his 30s and we may simply be observing the decline of a quality player. The projections see a bit of an offensive bounceback, which the White Sox would appreciate, but Ramirez probably isn’t the player he was. Eventually, they never are. Ramirez is simply fine enough.
#17 Padres
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Everth Cabrera 525 .241 .315 .324 .285 -7.8 3.4 -1.4 1.8
Logan Forsythe 105 .242 .330 .355 .304 0.0 0.1 -0.8 0.4
Alexi Amarista 70 .252 .294 .369 .288 -0.9 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .242 .315 .333 .288 -8.7 3.4 -2.3 2.4
Cabrera isn’t a great defender, he doesn’t make a ton of contact, and he doesn’t hit for power since he puts almost everything on the ground. He’s not all that young, and he’s saved by the fact that he can walk and that he gets a park adjustment from Petco. He’s also saved by the fact that he doesn’t have a quality backup, as Forsythe isn’t a shortstop for a good team. Cabrera has averaged 1.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances over his modest career, and I think that gets the right point across. If you don’t know a lot about Everth Cabrera, you probably won’t need to.
#18 Mets
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ruben Tejada 560 .267 .328 .340 .296 -6.1 -0.3 2.3 2.2
Omar Quintanilla 119 .241 .305 .353 .285 -2.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.2
Brandon Hicks 21 .207 .282 .356 .279 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .261 .323 .343 .294 -9.1 -0.4 1.9 2.4
Young shortstop, contact, limited power, defensive adequacy. I’m getting tired of writing about this although in fairness I’ve been sitting in one spot in a hotel lobby for hours and I might be in need of a break. (Ed. note: upon updating this post, the ranking order shifted, so the caption order shifted, so that explains why this caption began as it did. I have chosen to include this note instead of just changing the caption into something else.) Last season Tejada doubled his career home-run total, by hitting one. He had some injury problems but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be fragile or not down the road. He is patient, so he has the ability to draw a walk, but pitchers don’t have many reasons to walk him. Tejada’s a startable player who’s also an upgrade-able player.
#19 Brewers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jean Segura 595 .272 .321 .388 .307 -4.1 1.5 -2.3 2.2
Alex Gonzalez 70 .238 .280 .380 .286 -1.6 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Jeff Bianchi 35 .256 .304 .342 .282 -0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .268 .316 .385 .303 -6.7 1.4 -2.3 2.4
Last year, Segura was legitimately above average in double-A at 22. But he was in double-A, and his major-league experience was far from particularly impressive. He put two-thirds of his balls in play on the ground, and he doesn’t have much power or extraordinary defensive ability. Segura is something of a low-ceiling shortstop, made more remarkable by his age and historical prospect hype. That he makes contact keeps him from being an offensive nightmare but this year, at shortstop, the Brewers are striving for adequacy.
#20 Pirates
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Clint Barmes 560 .237 .292 .359 .283 -12.5 -0.7 6.0 1.8
Josh Harrison 105 .262 .303 .380 .298 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.3
Jordy Mercer 35 .241 .294 .373 .292 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .241 .294 .363 .286 -14.2 -0.8 5.8 2.3
One year Clint Barmes posted a .342 wOBA. The next year he knocked 23 dingers. Barmes isn’t on the Rockies anymore, and now he’s 34 years old. His last three years look like Brendan Ryan’s last three years, and you’ll notice you haven’t yet seen Brendan Ryan and the Mariners on this list. Barmes is gifted in the field, and that’s the reason he stays in the lineup, but you wonder how much more he might’ve been able to accomplish had he not elected to play all the time with a partially broken bat. You can use another bat, Clint Barmes. Some bats aren’t broken and terrible. For the record, this is a substantial projected wOBA bounceback. Last year was really bad.
#21 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alcides Escobar 595 .271 .315 .370 .298 -8.4 2.0 -0.8 2.0
Elliot Johnson 91 .246 .303 .366 .294 -1.6 0.0 -0.5 0.2
Irving Falu 14 .266 .309 .351 .289 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .268 .313 .369 .297 -10.3 2.0 -1.3 2.2
Young shortstop, contact, groundballs, defensive adequacy. We’ve already talked about this sort of player, and it’s a safe sort of player without wild, lofty upside. Escobar should be steady for the Royals, and he should stay on the field, but he’ll be as good as his batting average and his career mark is .266. Considered a part of the Royals’ young core, Escobar isn’t about to make or break what the Royals hope will be a competitive season. He’s a guy at a critical spot, but he’s not a critical player.
#22 Giants
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brandon Crawford 595 .238 .302 .353 .286 -10.7 -1.4 4.5 2.0
Joaquin Arias 70 .259 .294 .360 .282 -1.5 0.1 -0.2 0.2
Tony Abreu 35 .255 .289 .373 .289 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .241 .300 .354 .286 -12.8 -1.4 4.3 2.2
Young shortstop, limited power, below-average contact offset by above-average defense. Crawford is a defensive specialist who isn’t a complete offensive black hole, thanks to his ability to draw the occasional walk and drill the occasional extra-base hit. Crawford did get better at the plate in the second half, jumping from a .271 wOBA to a .300 wOBA. That wasn’t a BABIP thing, so Crawford might have a little life. But his strengths and his weaknesses are very well known. This is not the guy who’s going to carry the Giants’ lineup, nor would anyone ever make that accusation.
#23 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Derek Jeter 490 .283 .342 .378 .316 -0.9 -0.5 -4.2 1.7
Eduardo Nunez 175 .266 .309 .366 .294 -3.5 0.5 -1.3 0.3
Jayson Nix 35 .226 .293 .387 .296 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .276 .331 .375 .310 -5.0 0.0 -5.7 2.1
It’s Derek Jeter! Now 38 years old and recovering from injury. He’s still projected to be a decent bat, but he’s projected to be a worse bat, and his defense isn’t improving. Note the playing time, as well — Jeter might see significant time at designated hitter, with Eduardo Nunez filling in. There’s life in Nunez’s bat but there isn’t a lot else to his overall skillset. Nix is a guy who might be on the team at some point. If Jeter comes back and looks something like his old self it’ll be laughable that they once ranked #23 on this list, but he is old and he was just hurt, and he’s Derek Jeter in the field. This probably isn’t a team strength.
#24 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Stephen Drew 490 .249 .325 .391 .313 -3.7 -0.7 -0.8 1.7
Pedro Ciriaco 154 .263 .284 .358 .277 -5.6 0.2 0.4 0.2
Jose Iglesias 56 .253 .302 .315 .274 -2.2 0.1 0.6 0.1
Total 700 .252 .314 .377 .302 -11.4 -0.4 0.2 2.0
One time, Drew slugged .502. One other time, Drew was worth 5.1 WAR. One of those times was 2008, and the other of those times was 2010. The forecasts haven’t completely forgotten about Drew’s performance upside, but it’s been a while, and Drew also doesn’t have durability on his side. Behind Drew, Ciriaco doesn’t have much of anything on his side, and as much as the Red Sox love Iglesias’ defense, that’s how much nobody likes Iglesias’ bat. You could say this is a volatile position for Boston, but this spot in the rankings seems just about appropriate. Other teams have far better situations, even if Boston’s isn’t the worst.
#25 Diamondbacks
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Cliff Pennington 560 .256 .319 .374 .304 -8.5 0.5 1.0 1.9
Willie Bloomquist 91 .264 .304 .350 .286 -2.7 -0.3 -0.8 0.0
Didi Gregorius 49 .264 .303 .384 .296 -1.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .258 .316 .371 .301 -12.2 0.1 0.4 2.0
A big deal was made about the Diamondbacks trading for Gregorius, but right now he’s not going to be their starter. He’s also presumably not ready to be their starter, which makes it a good thing they have Pennington around. Pennington just slugged .311, which is awful, and he had Brendan Ryan’s wRC+, but that was basically all BABIP so Pennington should bounce back some. He stands to be an uninteresting part of a very interesting team, but at least he shouldn’t be a black hole. Willie Bloomquist is now 35 years old. He just got caught stealing ten times in 17 attempts. Now you know those things about Willie Bloomquist.
#26 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brendan Ryan 560 .225 .295 .307 .268 -17.0 0.7 7.1 1.6
Robert Andino 119 .230 .295 .322 .275 -3.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.2
Carlos Triunfel 21 .246 .287 .336 .273 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .226 .295 .310 .270 -20.5 0.6 6.6 1.8
As it was with Clint Barmes, so it is with Brendan Ryan. Ryan is a fantastic defensive shortstop, even at his age, but he offers nothing at the plate aside from his occasional ability to coax a walk. There will be stretches where he looks productive because he hits for a decent average, but his average will be empty, and unless tweaks to his swing make a real difference, he’s going to hit a maddening amount of pop-ups. The Mariners like Andino some and he’ll get time if and when Eric Wedge finds Ryan obnoxious, but if the Mariners could tolerate Ryan’s bat before because of his defense, then he’ll find time with something of a bounceback. Half of the time, Ryan is a real treat to watch. Half of the time, Ryan’s when you get up to use the restroom or make a phone call.
#27 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ronny Cedeno 385 .241 .295 .355 .282 -9.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.7
Marwin Gonzalez 245 .252 .299 .346 .282 -6.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.4
Jake Elmore 70 .256 .338 .331 .299 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.2
Total 700 .246 .301 .350 .284 -16.7 -0.6 -0.4 1.4
The original blurb here talked about a brewing competition between Marwin Gonzalez and Tyler Greene. Since then, the Astros have grabbed Cedeno, and it looks like Greene won’t make the roster. Cedeno was dropped by the Cardinals, who prefer Pete Kozma. So that says a lot about Ronny Cedeno. Gonzalez is pretty much exactly what you think he is, and he might end up getting a lot of time. Whatever happens, shortstop isn’t going to be a strength for the Astros, because the Astros aren’t going to have strengths. They’ll have relative strengths, to the rest of the positions on the Astros. So there’s that going for them.
#28 Marlins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adeiny Hechavarria 560 .251 .292 .353 .281 -15.2 -0.6 0.7 1.0
Donovan Solano 70 .258 .304 .341 .283 -1.8 0.0 0.2 0.2
Nick Green 70 .238 .290 .357 .280 -2.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.1
Total 700 .251 .293 .352 .282 -18.9 -0.6 0.4 1.2
Hechavarria’s young and he’s been a decent prospect, but his triple-A numbers are inflated by the ballpark environment and his approach is going to limit his offensive upside. He posted a .637 OPS in double-A, and a .509 OPS in single-A, and he just put up a .645 OPS in a big-league cup of coffee. As always, there’s upside for Hechavarria to be a half-decent non-power hitter, but without incredible defense he looks like he could be fringey, so, basically, hey, the Marlins are near the bottom at another position. Stop the internet presses. Additionally, move minor-league teams away from Las Vegas.
#29 Cardinals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Pete Kozma 525 .227 .285 .322 .265 -19.3 -0.2 2.2 0.6
Daniel Descalso 175 .253 .324 .360 .298 -1.9 0.0 -0.7 0.5
Total 700 .233 .295 .331 .273 -21.1 -0.2 1.5 1.2
The Cardinals insist they’re happy with Kozma for the time being, what with Rafael Furcal now unavailable. Kozma is coming off an impressive cup of coffee. Something I didn’t know is that Kozma is a former first-round pick, having been selected 18th in 2007, but something I did know is that Kozma posted a .610 OPS in triple-A over nearly a thousand trips to the plate. He’s at .652 in his minor-league career, with decent power but not much else. He’s not a whiz, laterally or with the glove, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Cardinals shortly re-enter the shortstop trade market. They could potentially be stubborn, or Kozma could potentially impress, because what we’re thinking about are averages and half the time the average is beat. But Kozma’s short-term track record doesn’t match up with his long-term track record, and it’s the long-term track records that are most meaningful. The Cardinals intend to be good, and shortstop could easily be a real problem for them.
#30 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Pedro Florimon 525 .234 .290 .333 .275 -16.4 -0.8 -0.5 0.6
Jamey Carroll 105 .267 .341 .330 .301 -1.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4
Eduardo Escobar 70 .242 .285 .337 .273 -2.3 -0.1 0.3 0.1
Total 700 .239 .297 .333 .279 -19.9 -1.0 0.0 1.0
Florimon was once a waiver grab, and he’s a 26-year-old with a .675 minor league OPS. He didn’t hit in the majors, but he did field a bit and the Twins don’t have superior options so here’s Florimon again, standing to get a ton of playing time. He’s coming off one home run and 58% groundballs, which tells you plenty. To his credit, he’s not a hacker, and he is good with the glove, but this is another low-OBP, low-slugging middle infielder who’s going to look okay during the stretches when he’s hitting .275. Try not to think about when he isn’t in one of those stretches.
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2013 Positional Power Rankings: Center Field.
Center field is one of the most star-laden positions in baseball at the moment, but a whole lot of those stars are dealing with injuries or coming off down years or trying to change positions. It also hurts that arguably the best player in the game figures to spend most of his time in left field this summer, but so be it. There is still plenty of center field talent — third base was the only position with more 5+ WAR players in 2012 — with a few interesting youngsters due to get regular playing time this year.
The league average center fielder hit .264/.328/.414 (101 wRC+) last summer, so the offensive bar is low compared to the corner spots. Defense is a big separator between the good and great players, though I feel like no position is more prone to the surprise 4+ WAR season. We’ve seen quite a few players pop-up out of nowhere to post star-caliber seasons driven largely by their center field defensive ratings, which can be a sketchy proposition. The established center field stars are among the best players in the world and perennial MVP candidates, so it’s no surprise teams with those players dominate the top of our rankings.
#1 Pirates
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Andrew McCutchen 665 .288 .377 .490 .370 31.7 0.2 -0.8 5.8
Starling Marte 35 .270 .319 .432 .322 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2
Total 700 .287 .374 .487 .368 32.0 0.3 -0.5 6.0
Not many positions in this series will be easier to cover than Pittsburgh’s center field situation. The 26-year-old McCutchen is one of the ten best players in the world and since he’s in the non-DH league, he’ll play as many innings in the field as humanly possible. This one ain’t rocket science. Marte, 24, will slide into center field whenever McCutchen takes a day off — he’s played 577 of 595 possible games since being called up in early-June 2009 — but otherwise he’s slated to be the everyday left fielder.
#2 Dodgers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Kemp 595 .288 .362 .520 .370 29.5 0.7 -6.1 4.8
Skip Schumaker 70 .263 .325 .338 .292 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 0.1
Tony Gwynn 35 .243 .307 .323 .277 -0.9 0.1 0.3 0.1
Total 700 .283 .356 .491 .357 27.7 0.7 -6.4 5.0
Injuries sabotaged Kemp a year ago, including a left shoulder issue — his power shoulder as a right-handed batter — that required offseason surgery. The 28-year-old also dealt with hamstring problems in 2012, which took away from his stolen base total. If healthy, Kemp is baseball’s premier power-speed threat, someone who is legitimately capable of going 40-40 and carrying a lineup. I have some concerns about his power in the immediate aftermath of the surgery, but not enough to consider him a big risk.
Schumaker, 33, is likely to open the season on the Dodgers’ bench and give Kemp the occasional day off. Gwynn, 30, is the emergency guy in Triple-A who will resurface should the starter’s shoulder or hamstring continue to bark. Schumaker can hold his own against righties and has become a little underrated in recent years, but he and Gwynn are enormous steps down from Kemp. The difference between Los Angeles’ starting and backup center fielder is arguably the biggest of any team in the game.
#3 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Peter Bourjos 490 .252 .311 .402 .310 0.0 1.2 7.6 2.8
Mike Trout 175 .290 .370 .503 .373 8.9 1.3 2.2 2.0
Vernon Wells 21 .248 .297 .439 .316 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Kole Calhoun 14 .245 .311 .408 .315 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .261 .325 .428 .326 9.0 2.4 9.9 4.9
The Halos have arguably the best two-player center field tandem in baseball, so one of them will have to spend time in left. That would be Trout, leaving Bourjos and his brilliant defense at the more premium position. The 25-year-old has a slightly below-average offensive game built on speed, both stealing bases and stretching singles into doubles (and doubles into triples). I happen to think Bourjos has gotten overrated these last two years — this goes back to what I said earlier about surprise 4+ WAR seasons — but he’s certainly a big league player thanks to defense. If he’s going to play regularly, center field is the place to do it.
Trout, 21, will ply his trade in left and fill-in at center against tough righties on occasion. He’s a star even if his performance figures to take a slight step back following one of the best rookie seasons we’ll ever see. Wells is just kinda hanging around in his age-34 season and doesn’t figure to see much time in center without a series of injuries. Kalhoun, 25, is a personal fave who is more of a corner guy than someone capable of playing center everyday. Given the depth chart ahead of him, he’ll again be an up-and-down player in 2013.
#4 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jacoby Ellsbury 455 .284 .339 .437 .336 5.2 1.4 4.0 2.9
Shane Victorino 175 .270 .339 .422 .330 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.9
Jackie Bradley 70 .259 .343 .387 .320 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3
Total 700 .278 .339 .429 .333 6.2 2.0 4.6 4.0
The Red Sox have one of the most volatile center field situations in baseball because the 29-year-old Ellsbury has been both an MVP candidate and injury bust in the last few seasons. He’s missed significant time in two of the last three years but the one exception was outstanding, a 9.4 WAR effort in 2011. That said, he’s been something less than a three-win player in three of the last four years. Ellsbury’s good but injury prone, and we don’t know if the power spike — 16.7% HR/FB — from 2011 is actually real. He’ll try to prove it was this summer before heading to free agency.
Victorino, 32, will be the primary right fielder and backup center fielder as Bradley gets some time in Triple-A. The 22-year-old is the obvious successor to Ellsbury and is a safe bet to debut at some point this season, even if it’s just a September call-up. I do believe that if Ellsbury got hurt and missed a bunch of time again, Bradley would be the guy they stick in center everyday. Not Victorino. There’s a lot of volatility here, this unit could live up to its billing as one of the best in baseball or complete tank and be one of the ten worst.
#5 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Austin Jackson 630 .270 .346 .418 .333 7.9 -0.1 4.8 3.7
Quintin Berry 35 .234 .307 .312 .277 -1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
Avisail Garcia 35 .252 .281 .373 .283 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .267 .341 .410 .328 5.8 0.1 4.8 3.8
The Tigers tweaked Jackson’s swing mechanics prior to last season, and the result was a breakout 135 wRC+ and 16 homers in 617 plate appearances. Mechanical tweaks don’t translate well in projection systems, especially after just one year, so the 26-year-old gives Detroit perhaps the best chance of any team to outperform their ranking.
Berry, 28, is a spare part who rode an early-season hot streak to plenty of playing time last year, but he’s cut from the same cloth as Campana — speedy without the guarantee of doing anything else particularly well. The 21-year-old Garcia is more of a corner guy who would only wind up in center in an emergency of blowout. Jackson is the clear starter here.
#6 Cardinals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jon Jay 574 .285 .346 .406 .329 8.2 0.1 2.3 3.3
Shane Robinson 70 .254 .317 .373 .301 -0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3
Adron Chambers 35 .261 .337 .361 .307 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Oscar Taveras 21 .279 .332 .446 .331 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .280 .342 .402 .325 7.9 0.2 2.5 3.8
I was a big Colby Rasmus guy and I thought the Cardinals made a mistake by trading him for a few weeks of Edwin Jackson and miscellaneous relievers, but St. Louis clearly made the right decision by keeping the 28-year-old Jay. He’s turned into nearly the exact opposite of what I expected (doubles-heavy corner outfielder) and is now a legitimate leadoff type with strong center field defense. He’s quite the player. Jay didn’t show any ill-effects from the shoulder separation that cost him nearly 40 games last season, but there’s always a little concern that will linger going forward.
Robinson, 28, is the clear backup now that Schumaker is in Los Angeles while Chambers, 26, seems destined to spend another year in Triple-A. His left-handed bat could land him a bench job, however. Taveras, 20, is arguably the best prospect in baseball and likely to at least start the season in the minors. If Jay did suffer any kind of long-ish term injury, I do believe the Cardinals would plug Taveras into the lineup everyday rather than play Robinson or Chambers (or even Carlos Beltran for that matter) regularly.
#7 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Desmond Jennings 595 .250 .326 .392 .315 3.2 3.5 2.3 3.2
Sam Fuld 70 .241 .318 .343 .293 -0.8 0.0 0.5 0.2
Ben Zobrist 35 .260 .363 .442 .349 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.3
Total 700 .249 .327 .389 .315 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.8
The Upton era is over in Tampa Bay, but the 26-year-old Jennings will slide right over and assume center field duties. He underwhelmed offensively (98 wRC+) last summer but remains useful because he steals bases (31-for-33, 93.9%), hits for a little bit of pop (.143 ISO), and plays the hell out of the outfield. Jennings is an injury risk though, so our playing time projection might be a tad optimistic. Super Sam Fuld, 31, is the obvious backup while Ben Zobrist, also 31, figures to see most of his action at second base and in right field. He’s always available in the pinch though.
#8 Diamondbacks
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam Eaton 560 .290 .369 .413 .344 9.3 0.8 0.2 3.2
Gerardo Parra 105 .277 .339 .407 .320 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.4
Tony Campana 35 .262 .309 .322 .281 -1.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .286 .362 .407 .337 7.9 1.0 0.4 3.7
Arizona made some very … controversial? poorly received? all of the above? … moves this winter, including trading a bonafide center fielder in Chris Young. That opened the door for the 24-year-old Eaton, who put together an impressive big league debut in September (117 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in 22 games) after a monster minor league season. The D’Backs handed him the reins to the starting job this winter and expect his combination of on-base skills, speed, and defense to prove more valuable than Young’s power, speed, and defense.
Eaton’s primary backup is the 25-year-old Parra, who has been very useful as a heavily-used reserve outfielder these last two years. He figures to see most of his action as a platoon partner for Cody Ross and a defensive replacement for Jason Kubel than as Eaton’s fill-in. Campana, 26, will start the year in Triple-A and is a pure speed guy. He won’t hit or even be an overwhelmingly great defender, so he’s the clear third-in-line.
#9 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Curtis Granderson 455 .241 .332 .472 .344 9.3 0.4 -5.5 2.2
Brett Gardner 210 .260 .356 .367 .322 0.6 1.3 3.9 1.4
Melky Mesa 35 .220 .276 .382 .286 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .245 .336 .436 .335 9.0 1.7 -1.5 3.7
If the Yankees had their way, the 29-year-old Gardner would be manning center field full-time this season. He is one of the game’s best defenders while 31-year-old Granderson is below-average, so flipping the two makes sense. That was the plan until Granderson had his forearm broken by an errant pitch a few weeks ago, prompting the team to say they were scraping their defensive change. They want to focus on getting Granderson’s bat back in the lineup as soon as possible rather than giving him time to adjust to left field. The Yankees are sacrificing quite a bit of (theoretical) value by sticking with their current lineup.
Mesa, 26, could open the year with the team as Granderson’s injury replacement but is an up-and-down guy more than anything. Gardner’s the oh so logical sub.
#10 Padres
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Cameron Maybin 525 .250 .319 .378 .305 0.5 2.2 4.8 2.8
Will Venable 105 .246 .320 .400 .311 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5
Chris Denorfia 70 .267 .327 .404 .317 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.3
Total 700 .252 .320 .384 .307 1.9 2.5 4.7 3.7
Maybin’s follow-up to his breakout 2011 campaign was solid but disappointing, as his stolen base production basically got cut in half and his power slid slightly. Then again, a .331 BABIP with a 22.0% strikeout rate maybe wasn’t the most sustainable thing in the world. The 25-year-old can still play the hell out of center field, plus his age and contract — owned $24.4 million through 2017 — ensure he’ll have the job for the foreseeable future.
Venable, 30, and Denorfia, 32, are capable of playing center on a regular basis if need be, the former moreso than the latter. They’re great role players who will see most of their action as a right field platoon. Maybin’s the clear everyday guy here despite San Diego’s center field depth.
#11 Reds
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Shin-Soo Choo 595 .273 .367 .449 .355 17.8 0.3 -9.4 3.2
Chris Heisey 70 .256 .313 .437 .324 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3
Xavier Paul 35 .261 .317 .414 .317 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .271 .359 .446 .350 18.1 0.4 -9.4 3.7
Cincinnati made arguably the boldest move of the offseason, acquiring a long-time right fielder in Choo and sticking him in center to fill a need. He can really hit (righties, anyway) and will be a great catalyst atop a powerhouse lineup, but transitioning to center could be very messy. Choo hasn’t rated as a strong defender in right in recent years and the shift to the up-the-middle spot could lead to a lot more base hits for the opposition. It’s a risky but incredibly gutsy move.
Heisey, 28, could see quite a bit more playing in center than we’re projecting if manager Dusty Baker platoons Choo — who really struggles against lefties — liberally this summer. It would improve the defense for sure, and likely the offense if the aforementioned platoon is deployed properly. The 28-year-old Paul is an extra part who will fill-in during injuries or serve as a warm body in September.
#12 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Bourn 630 .264 .335 .361 .307 -1.6 3.5 7.6 3.4
Drew Stubbs 70 .226 .302 .355 .290 -1.2 0.3 0.1 0.2
Total 700 .260 .332 .360 .306 -2.7 3.9 7.7 3.6
Michael Brantley’s stint as the everyday center fielder didn’t last much more than one season, as he’s now just the third best player at the position on Cleveland’s depth chart. He’ll man left field with Bourn in center and Stubbs in right under the team’s new “three center fielders” outfield with Nick Swisher sliding in at first base.
Bourn, 30, had to wait quite a while before landing his big contract, but he brings elite speed, base-running, and defense to the Indians’ lineup. Given his fat new $48 million contract, expect the former Brave to play as many innings as possible in center while the 28-year-old Stubbs utilizes his four-tool package in right field. He has every tool but the most important one, the ability to make contact. Stubbs is a more than capable center field replacement, meaning Brantley will need to get some breaks to return to his old position regularly.
#13 Braves
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
B.J. Upton 630 .248 .324 .443 .331 8.2 1.8 -0.5 3.4
Reed Johnson 35 .256 .304 .373 .295 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Jose Constanza 35 .270 .321 .344 .291 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .250 .323 .434 .327 7.0 1.8 -0.4 3.6
The Braves spent an awful lot of money on the 28-year-old Upton and seem at least somewhat hopeful pairing him with his brother will bring out the best in the two players. The elder Upton has been both pretty good and disappointing in recent years, rattling off 3+ win seasons for the last half-decade. People just expected more and that’s led to him being underrated. Upton’s going to hit for power, steal a ton of bases, and play serviceable at worst defense. That’s a pretty darn good player, arguably better than what they got out of Michael Bourn last year given the general work-in-progress nature of defensive metrics.
Both Johnson, 36, and Costanza, 29, are platoon bats and more emergency center fielders than someone you’d feel comfortable running out there on an everyday basis. I do wonder if Atlanta would use Justin Upton in center should B.J. get hurt, but we have no reason to believe they would right now.
#14 Giants
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Angel Pagan 630 .276 .332 .410 .320 5.5 1.8 0.3 3.2
Andres Torres 70 .238 .325 .373 .307 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3
Total 700 .272 .331 .406 .318 5.4 1.9 0.7 3.5
GM Brian Sabean has shown these last three years that he’s happy to bring back players who helped his team win the World Series, though some (Aubrey Huff and Freddy Sanchez) haven’t worked out as well as others (Javier Lopez). The 31-year-old Pagan has settled in as a slightly above-average offensive player (108 wRC+) who will steal lots of bases but has mixed defensive reviews. Seriously, his UZR has gone from fantastic (9.0 in 2010) to awful (-14.3 in 2011) to average (0.1 in 2012) the last three years. DRS went from great in 2010 to solidly below-average these last two seasons, so believe whichever you want.
Torres, 35, returns in a platoon role and figures to see most of his action in left field alongside Gregor Blanco. His defense is his strength though, so he’s a more than solid backup center fielder. Just don’t ever expect him to repeat his 2010 performance as well.
#15 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Coco Crisp 525 .263 .328 .399 .316 2.1 3.5 -0.7 2.6
Chris Young 175 .229 .322 .402 .317 0.8 0.2 1.8 1.0
Total 700 .255 .326 .400 .317 3.0 3.6 1.2 3.5
The Athletics are one of the few teams with two legitimate center fielders on their roster, but the club has already announced their plans to use the 29-year-old Young as a utility outfielder. After a brief experiment last year, Yoenis Cespedes isn’t on the center field radar.
Crisp, 33, will start in center even though he’s an inferior player, but there’s a good chance he’ll wind up as trade bait at some point. As a legitimate leadoff-type center fielder who is owned just $7 million this year with a $7.5 million club option for next year, he should have pretty good trade value. Young would then step right in and play everyday. Oakland has some nice flexibility at a key up-the-middle position.
#16 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam Jones 630 .279 .329 .473 .344 12.5 0.2 -4.7 3.3
Nate McLouth 63 .234 .324 .387 .312 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.2
Xavier Avery 7 .236 .304 .339 .285 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .274 .328 .464 .340 11.9 0.3 -5.0 3.5
Only four players played in all 162 games last year, including the 27-year-old Jones. His upward power trend continued with a career-high .218 ISO, and he’s entering what should be the peak of his career. Considering how much Jones figures to play — nearly every inning of the season with the 31-year-old McLouth and 23-year-old Avery filling in on the rarest of occasions– and the chances of him outshooting his projection (pretty good, in my opinion), we might be underrating the Orioles a bit in center field.
#17 Rockies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Dexter Fowler 630 .273 .368 .450 .355 10.8 1.0 -6.2 3.0
Tyler Colvin 35 .260 .304 .483 .334 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Eric Young 35 .267 .343 .380 .318 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .272 .364 .448 .352 10.3 1.2 -6.1 3.3
Fowler, 26, had a breakout offensive season that was at least due in part to Coors Field — 142 wRC+ at home vs. 98 wRC+. Road stats don’t represent a player’s true talent level — almost all players hit better at home than on the road — but it’s a certainty that Fowler benefited from playing in Colorado. How much exactly? We don’t really know.
Behind Fowler are two 27-year-olds in Colvin and Young. Colvin will see plenty of time in the corner outfield spots and at first base, but Young’s spot is a little more up in the air. Fowler dealt with nagging wrist and ankle injuries last season after spending time on the DL in both 2010 and 2011, so more health issues would presumably put Young in the field on a more regular basis.
#18 Nationals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Denard Span 595 .270 .332 .368 .308 -3.0 0.9 6.9 2.8
Roger Bernadina 105 .250 .322 .385 .309 -0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4
Total 700 .267 .330 .371 .308 -3.5 1.2 6.9 3.2
There’s a pretty great case to be made that the Nationals acquiring Span was the single best move off the offseason. The 29-year-old rebounded a bit last summer following two injury-bothered seasons, but I don’t think he’ll ever get back to the 119 wRC+ form he showed from 2008-2009. Still, a bat-control hitter with speed is a pretty useful player, especially when he’s among the best defenders at a premium position. Add in a contract that will pay Span just $11.25 million over the next two years with a $9 million club option for a third year and you wonder how GM Mike Rizzo acquired him for one Single-A pitching prospect.
Bernadina, 28, finally started to put it all together last season, though I’m not sold on the idea of a .359 BABIP being his true talent level given a strikeout rate that resides north of 20%. Regardless, he’s a very useful left-handed hitter for the bench and a more than capable center field fill-in. Bryce Harper is always a possibility in center, but he’s pushed down the depth chart.
#19 Brewers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Gomez 665 .248 .303 .410 .308 -3.6 3.3 4.8 3.0
Logan Schafer 35 .262 .315 .390 .307 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .249 .303 .409 .308 -3.8 3.3 4.9 3.2
The Brewers just signed the 27-year-old Gomez to what amounts to a four-year, $28.3 million extension about a week ago, which struck me as a pretty great deal given his age and upward-trending power numbers. His defense and stolen base ability alone make him a legitimate starting center fielder even though he strikes out a ton and rarely walks. Gomez has a starting job locked down for the first time since his age-22 season with the Twins, and he’s in a much better position to handle that role right now.
Schafer, 26, is finally in the position to get a legitimate crack at a big league bench job. He’s a left-handed hitter with a strong defensive reputation, so pretty much the typical NL reserve outfielder. Milwaukee is a little thin after Schafer, with Norichika Aoki the fallback.
#20 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alejandro De Aza 665 .273 .337 .406 .324 1.2 0.3 1.8 2.9
DeWayne Wise 35 .242 .285 .403 .296 -0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .272 .334 .406 .323 0.5 0.4 1.8 3.0
The ChiSox have a knack for turning nothing into something, but usually on the pitching side. De Aza, 28, went from Triple-A fodder and up-and-down guy to everyday center fielder last summer, stealing bases (26-for-38, 68.4%) and drawing walks (8.0 BB%) offensively and playing the position with aplomb on defense. The 34-year-old Wise is the obvious backup since the team seems committed to keeping Alex Rios in center, so De Aza is the clear starter unless he suddenly reverts back to his pre-2011 form. That would make things a little messy on the south side.
#21 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Leonys Martin 455 .274 .334 .432 .331 2.1 -1.1 0.2 1.9
Craig Gentry 210 .264 .326 .355 .301 -4.1 0.7 4.6 0.9
Julio Borbon 35 .272 .318 .370 .300 -0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .271 .331 .406 .320 -2.8 -0.3 4.9 2.9
With Josh Hamilton in an Angels uniform, the center field position in Arlington is a little more open than it had been in the past. Martin, 24, had a strong (164 wRC+) but injury-shortened (thumb) season in Triple-A last year, but he’s poised to play the position regularly as the left-handed half of a platoon with the 29-year-old Gentry. Gentry proved his worth last summer by destroying southpaws (136 wRC+) and playing strong defense, making him the obvious candidate for the right-handed half. Borbon is out of options and I suppose he could wind up starting over Martin, but that would surprise me. The Rangers didn’t give Martin $15.5 million not to play center when the job opened up.
#22 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Lorenzo Cain 560 .265 .321 .398 .314 -0.7 0.8 2.2 2.4
Jarrod Dyson 140 .253 .315 .333 .286 -3.4 1.4 0.6 0.4
Total 700 .263 .320 .385 .309 -4.0 2.2 2.8 2.8
I’m not going to say it’s now or never time for Cain, but he’ll turn 27 about two weeks after Opening Day and needs to establish himself this season if he wants to be a big leaguer long-term. Groin and hamstring issues sabotaged his 2012 season, but Cain has proven all he’s needed to prove in Triple-A these last three years. At the very least he’ll steal some bases and play strong defense. Dyson, 28, is a classic one-tool guy who will use his speed to steal bases and run down balls in the outfield. That’s it.
#23 Phillies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ben Revere 630 .282 .326 .343 .296 -9.7 2.9 6.3 2.4
John Mayberry 70 .250 .309 .422 .316 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3
Total 700 .279 .324 .351 .298 -9.7 2.9 6.0 2.6
The Twins traded not one, but two legitimate starting center fielder this winter. Span went to the Nationals and the 24-year-old Revere went to the Phillies, bringing his speed and defense combination to a team that really doesn’t have much of that outside of Jimmy Rollins. Revere won’t hit for any power — zero homers in 1,064 big league plate appearances and just five in 1,755 minor league plate appearances — or draw walks, but he’s going to slap the ball around the infield like nobody’s business.
Mayberry, 29, is going to platoon in one of the corner outfield spots (maybe even first base? nah) and will fill-in at center when necessary. the job is Revere’s, no questions asked.
#24 Cubs
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
David DeJesus 525 .264 .345 .401 .327 3.6 -1.3 -1.2 2.1
Dave Sappelt 105 .269 .318 .388 .307 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 0.3
Brett Jackson 35 .231 .319 .402 .314 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Brent Lillibridge 35 .220 .283 .336 .273 -1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .261 .337 .396 .321 1.1 -1.5 -0.8 2.6
DeJesus, 33, is in the final year of his contract and is prime trade bait for the rebuilding Cubbies. It’s safe to say his hold on the center field job is temporary. Sappelt, 26, is the spare part who could sub into center in a pinch but is not a long-term answer. Lillibridge, 29, is the journeyman on a minor league contract who serves as depth and nothing more.
The real prize here is Jackson, the team’s 24-year-old top-ish prospect who looks an awful lot like a left-handed Stubbs clone. He’s got power, will draw a walk, and can play a mean center field, but his contact issues are extreme. The Cubs did overhaul his swing a bit over the winter, but that kind of stuff is in “best shape of his life” territory coming into Spring Training. We’ll need to see it in action during the regular season before we declare him cured of career-long strikeout issues (26.4 K% in over 1,800 minor league plate appearances). The job will be his to lose at some point in the next 12 months.
#25 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Colby Rasmus 420 .243 .317 .440 .325 2.9 0.2 -1.3 1.8
Emilio Bonifacio 70 .257 .322 .338 .292 -1.4 0.4 -0.4 0.1
Rajai Davis 70 .259 .308 .369 .295 -1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.2
Anthony Gose 140 .234 .307 .352 .292 -2.7 0.9 0.6 0.4
Total 700 .244 .314 .405 .312 -2.5 1.9 -1.3 2.5
Like I said before, I was a big Rasmus guy but he hasn’t been able to put it all together yet. The 26-year-old has very legitimate power, but he’s a big-time fly ball hitter who doesn’t drew enough walks to offset the damage they do to his batting average and by extension, on-base percentage. Rasmus has a lot of talent and could really breakout at any given moment, but I’m no longer on the bandwagon.
The Blue Jays have plenty of center field depth should they need to go in another direction for whatever reason. Gose, 22, has speed and some power to go along with good defense, but he’s likely ticketed for Triple-A to start the year. The 27-year-old Bonifacio figures to see most of his time at second base and as a supersub than anything while Davis, 32, could wind up getting a lot more playing time than projected as a platoon bat. Melky Cabrera is another center field alternative, but he’s way down on the depth chart now.
#26 Marlins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Ruggiano 350 .259 .323 .418 .322 1.9 -0.3 1.5 1.7
Gorkys Hernandez 140 .237 .305 .339 .288 -3.1 0.0 0.5 0.3
Alfredo Silverio 105 .247 .284 .394 .291 -2.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.1
Christian Yelich 105 .247 .302 .376 .296 -1.6 0.1 -0.3 0.2
Total 700 .251 .311 .393 .307 -4.8 -0.5 1.1 2.3
Ruggiano, 30, went from journeyman to 146 wRC+ last season, meaning he’ll open this year with a full-time big league job for the first time in his career. Is he going to repeat a .401 BABIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate? Not a chance. But the power has always been legit, especially against southpaws. Ruggiano is miscast as an everyday player, but he would be useful in the right situation.
Hernandez and Silverio are both 25 and former top prospects who have lost some luster over the years, the latter due to injuries sustained during a car accident. Silverio is a Rule 5 Draft pick and could hang around on the roster for a while given the team’s situation. The 21-year-old Yelich is one of the best prospects in baseball, but he has zero plate appearances above High-A and is more of a second half candidate than anything. At the very least, expect the Marlins to delay his arbitration and free agency clocks.
#27 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Maxwell 490 .220 .307 .408 .311 -0.8 0.2 1.9 2.0
Brandon Barnes 175 .228 .282 .361 .279 -4.8 -0.2 0.2 0.2
Rick Ankiel 21 .224 .292 .387 .296 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Trevor Crowe 14 .244 .307 .353 .293 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .223 .300 .394 .302 -6.2 0.0 1.9 2.3
The Astros found a useful piece in the 29-year-old Maxwell, who hits lefties hard (144 wRC+) and plays a strong center field. He’s a role player on a contending team but a full-timer for Houston, who is in the middle of a massive rebuilding process. Barnes, 26, and Crowe, 29, are up-and-down types while the 33-year-old Ankiel could wind up making the team as a bench or platoon player. Maxwell serves a role but the rest of the guys are just placeholders until George Springer is ready.
#28 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Franklin Gutierrez 420 .243 .301 .359 .287 -6.3 0.2 2.5 1.3
Michael Saunders 210 .233 .307 .384 .302 -0.6 0.3 -0.8 0.7
Casper Wells 70 .223 .305 .395 .305 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3
Total 700 .238 .303 .370 .294 -6.9 0.4 2.1 2.2
It’s been two years since the 30-year-old Gutierrez stayed healthy for a full season, so meeting the projection would be his most playing time since 2010. The defensive projection isn’t as strong as his track record and reputation suggest, which is a problem since basically his entire game is built around his glove. Saunders is a fine backup plan given his breakout season a year ago (108 wRC+), though the 26-year-old is not much defensively in center. Seattle doesn’t seem to like the 28-year-old Wells all that much and he could change teams before the start of the season since he’s out of options.
#29 Mets
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 315 .237 .304 .383 .300 -2.6 -0.1 0.3 1.0
Collin Cowgill 280 .252 .316 .366 .299 -2.5 0.2 0.0 0.8
Jordany Valdespin 105 .253 .291 .386 .293 -1.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.2
Total 700 .245 .307 .377 .298 -6.5 -0.2 -0.2 2.0
The Mets have the worst outfield in baseball and maybe the worst of the last decade, so it’s no surprised they’re right near the bottom of our rankings. Nieuwenhuis, 25, is the best defender of the group but he struggles to make contact and can’t hit lefties. Cowgill, 26, could fit in as a right-handed platoon partner while the 25-year-old Valdespin is more of an infielder than an outfielder. He’s had some highlight reel moments and the team seems to like him, but it’s tough to see him spending any time regularly in center.
#30 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Aaron Hicks 490 .234 .316 .356 .296 -7.3 -0.1 1.6 1.3
Darin Mastroianni 210 .244 .314 .326 .285 -5.0 1.1 0.6 0.5
Total 700 .237 .316 .347 .292 -12.3 0.9 2.2 1.8
I’m a Hicks fan despite his somewhat slow climb up the minor league ladder, though the Twins appear poised to jump the 23-year-old over Triple-A and use him as their everyday center fielder in the wake of the Span and Revere trades. Hicks is a tools machine and will do pretty much everything aside from hit for power, so he’s a younger version of Span with more long-term upside. His rookie year could be ugly though.
Mastroianni, 27, is a speedster who could wind up playing everyday in a corner spot depending on the health of Josh Willingham and production of Chris Parmalee. The injury prone Joe Benson is the only other legitimate center field option Minnesota has beyond Hicks and Mastroianni.
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The league average center fielder hit .264/.328/.414 (101 wRC+) last summer, so the offensive bar is low compared to the corner spots. Defense is a big separator between the good and great players, though I feel like no position is more prone to the surprise 4+ WAR season. We’ve seen quite a few players pop-up out of nowhere to post star-caliber seasons driven largely by their center field defensive ratings, which can be a sketchy proposition. The established center field stars are among the best players in the world and perennial MVP candidates, so it’s no surprise teams with those players dominate the top of our rankings.
#1 Pirates
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Andrew McCutchen 665 .288 .377 .490 .370 31.7 0.2 -0.8 5.8
Starling Marte 35 .270 .319 .432 .322 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2
Total 700 .287 .374 .487 .368 32.0 0.3 -0.5 6.0
Not many positions in this series will be easier to cover than Pittsburgh’s center field situation. The 26-year-old McCutchen is one of the ten best players in the world and since he’s in the non-DH league, he’ll play as many innings in the field as humanly possible. This one ain’t rocket science. Marte, 24, will slide into center field whenever McCutchen takes a day off — he’s played 577 of 595 possible games since being called up in early-June 2009 — but otherwise he’s slated to be the everyday left fielder.
#2 Dodgers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Kemp 595 .288 .362 .520 .370 29.5 0.7 -6.1 4.8
Skip Schumaker 70 .263 .325 .338 .292 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 0.1
Tony Gwynn 35 .243 .307 .323 .277 -0.9 0.1 0.3 0.1
Total 700 .283 .356 .491 .357 27.7 0.7 -6.4 5.0
Injuries sabotaged Kemp a year ago, including a left shoulder issue — his power shoulder as a right-handed batter — that required offseason surgery. The 28-year-old also dealt with hamstring problems in 2012, which took away from his stolen base total. If healthy, Kemp is baseball’s premier power-speed threat, someone who is legitimately capable of going 40-40 and carrying a lineup. I have some concerns about his power in the immediate aftermath of the surgery, but not enough to consider him a big risk.
Schumaker, 33, is likely to open the season on the Dodgers’ bench and give Kemp the occasional day off. Gwynn, 30, is the emergency guy in Triple-A who will resurface should the starter’s shoulder or hamstring continue to bark. Schumaker can hold his own against righties and has become a little underrated in recent years, but he and Gwynn are enormous steps down from Kemp. The difference between Los Angeles’ starting and backup center fielder is arguably the biggest of any team in the game.
#3 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Peter Bourjos 490 .252 .311 .402 .310 0.0 1.2 7.6 2.8
Mike Trout 175 .290 .370 .503 .373 8.9 1.3 2.2 2.0
Vernon Wells 21 .248 .297 .439 .316 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Kole Calhoun 14 .245 .311 .408 .315 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .261 .325 .428 .326 9.0 2.4 9.9 4.9
The Halos have arguably the best two-player center field tandem in baseball, so one of them will have to spend time in left. That would be Trout, leaving Bourjos and his brilliant defense at the more premium position. The 25-year-old has a slightly below-average offensive game built on speed, both stealing bases and stretching singles into doubles (and doubles into triples). I happen to think Bourjos has gotten overrated these last two years — this goes back to what I said earlier about surprise 4+ WAR seasons — but he’s certainly a big league player thanks to defense. If he’s going to play regularly, center field is the place to do it.
Trout, 21, will ply his trade in left and fill-in at center against tough righties on occasion. He’s a star even if his performance figures to take a slight step back following one of the best rookie seasons we’ll ever see. Wells is just kinda hanging around in his age-34 season and doesn’t figure to see much time in center without a series of injuries. Kalhoun, 25, is a personal fave who is more of a corner guy than someone capable of playing center everyday. Given the depth chart ahead of him, he’ll again be an up-and-down player in 2013.
#4 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jacoby Ellsbury 455 .284 .339 .437 .336 5.2 1.4 4.0 2.9
Shane Victorino 175 .270 .339 .422 .330 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.9
Jackie Bradley 70 .259 .343 .387 .320 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3
Total 700 .278 .339 .429 .333 6.2 2.0 4.6 4.0
The Red Sox have one of the most volatile center field situations in baseball because the 29-year-old Ellsbury has been both an MVP candidate and injury bust in the last few seasons. He’s missed significant time in two of the last three years but the one exception was outstanding, a 9.4 WAR effort in 2011. That said, he’s been something less than a three-win player in three of the last four years. Ellsbury’s good but injury prone, and we don’t know if the power spike — 16.7% HR/FB — from 2011 is actually real. He’ll try to prove it was this summer before heading to free agency.
Victorino, 32, will be the primary right fielder and backup center fielder as Bradley gets some time in Triple-A. The 22-year-old is the obvious successor to Ellsbury and is a safe bet to debut at some point this season, even if it’s just a September call-up. I do believe that if Ellsbury got hurt and missed a bunch of time again, Bradley would be the guy they stick in center everyday. Not Victorino. There’s a lot of volatility here, this unit could live up to its billing as one of the best in baseball or complete tank and be one of the ten worst.
#5 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Austin Jackson 630 .270 .346 .418 .333 7.9 -0.1 4.8 3.7
Quintin Berry 35 .234 .307 .312 .277 -1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
Avisail Garcia 35 .252 .281 .373 .283 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .267 .341 .410 .328 5.8 0.1 4.8 3.8
The Tigers tweaked Jackson’s swing mechanics prior to last season, and the result was a breakout 135 wRC+ and 16 homers in 617 plate appearances. Mechanical tweaks don’t translate well in projection systems, especially after just one year, so the 26-year-old gives Detroit perhaps the best chance of any team to outperform their ranking.
Berry, 28, is a spare part who rode an early-season hot streak to plenty of playing time last year, but he’s cut from the same cloth as Campana — speedy without the guarantee of doing anything else particularly well. The 21-year-old Garcia is more of a corner guy who would only wind up in center in an emergency of blowout. Jackson is the clear starter here.
#6 Cardinals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jon Jay 574 .285 .346 .406 .329 8.2 0.1 2.3 3.3
Shane Robinson 70 .254 .317 .373 .301 -0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3
Adron Chambers 35 .261 .337 .361 .307 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Oscar Taveras 21 .279 .332 .446 .331 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .280 .342 .402 .325 7.9 0.2 2.5 3.8
I was a big Colby Rasmus guy and I thought the Cardinals made a mistake by trading him for a few weeks of Edwin Jackson and miscellaneous relievers, but St. Louis clearly made the right decision by keeping the 28-year-old Jay. He’s turned into nearly the exact opposite of what I expected (doubles-heavy corner outfielder) and is now a legitimate leadoff type with strong center field defense. He’s quite the player. Jay didn’t show any ill-effects from the shoulder separation that cost him nearly 40 games last season, but there’s always a little concern that will linger going forward.
Robinson, 28, is the clear backup now that Schumaker is in Los Angeles while Chambers, 26, seems destined to spend another year in Triple-A. His left-handed bat could land him a bench job, however. Taveras, 20, is arguably the best prospect in baseball and likely to at least start the season in the minors. If Jay did suffer any kind of long-ish term injury, I do believe the Cardinals would plug Taveras into the lineup everyday rather than play Robinson or Chambers (or even Carlos Beltran for that matter) regularly.
#7 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Desmond Jennings 595 .250 .326 .392 .315 3.2 3.5 2.3 3.2
Sam Fuld 70 .241 .318 .343 .293 -0.8 0.0 0.5 0.2
Ben Zobrist 35 .260 .363 .442 .349 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.3
Total 700 .249 .327 .389 .315 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.8
The Upton era is over in Tampa Bay, but the 26-year-old Jennings will slide right over and assume center field duties. He underwhelmed offensively (98 wRC+) last summer but remains useful because he steals bases (31-for-33, 93.9%), hits for a little bit of pop (.143 ISO), and plays the hell out of the outfield. Jennings is an injury risk though, so our playing time projection might be a tad optimistic. Super Sam Fuld, 31, is the obvious backup while Ben Zobrist, also 31, figures to see most of his action at second base and in right field. He’s always available in the pinch though.
#8 Diamondbacks
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam Eaton 560 .290 .369 .413 .344 9.3 0.8 0.2 3.2
Gerardo Parra 105 .277 .339 .407 .320 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.4
Tony Campana 35 .262 .309 .322 .281 -1.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .286 .362 .407 .337 7.9 1.0 0.4 3.7
Arizona made some very … controversial? poorly received? all of the above? … moves this winter, including trading a bonafide center fielder in Chris Young. That opened the door for the 24-year-old Eaton, who put together an impressive big league debut in September (117 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in 22 games) after a monster minor league season. The D’Backs handed him the reins to the starting job this winter and expect his combination of on-base skills, speed, and defense to prove more valuable than Young’s power, speed, and defense.
Eaton’s primary backup is the 25-year-old Parra, who has been very useful as a heavily-used reserve outfielder these last two years. He figures to see most of his action as a platoon partner for Cody Ross and a defensive replacement for Jason Kubel than as Eaton’s fill-in. Campana, 26, will start the year in Triple-A and is a pure speed guy. He won’t hit or even be an overwhelmingly great defender, so he’s the clear third-in-line.
#9 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Curtis Granderson 455 .241 .332 .472 .344 9.3 0.4 -5.5 2.2
Brett Gardner 210 .260 .356 .367 .322 0.6 1.3 3.9 1.4
Melky Mesa 35 .220 .276 .382 .286 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .245 .336 .436 .335 9.0 1.7 -1.5 3.7
If the Yankees had their way, the 29-year-old Gardner would be manning center field full-time this season. He is one of the game’s best defenders while 31-year-old Granderson is below-average, so flipping the two makes sense. That was the plan until Granderson had his forearm broken by an errant pitch a few weeks ago, prompting the team to say they were scraping their defensive change. They want to focus on getting Granderson’s bat back in the lineup as soon as possible rather than giving him time to adjust to left field. The Yankees are sacrificing quite a bit of (theoretical) value by sticking with their current lineup.
Mesa, 26, could open the year with the team as Granderson’s injury replacement but is an up-and-down guy more than anything. Gardner’s the oh so logical sub.
#10 Padres
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Cameron Maybin 525 .250 .319 .378 .305 0.5 2.2 4.8 2.8
Will Venable 105 .246 .320 .400 .311 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5
Chris Denorfia 70 .267 .327 .404 .317 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.3
Total 700 .252 .320 .384 .307 1.9 2.5 4.7 3.7
Maybin’s follow-up to his breakout 2011 campaign was solid but disappointing, as his stolen base production basically got cut in half and his power slid slightly. Then again, a .331 BABIP with a 22.0% strikeout rate maybe wasn’t the most sustainable thing in the world. The 25-year-old can still play the hell out of center field, plus his age and contract — owned $24.4 million through 2017 — ensure he’ll have the job for the foreseeable future.
Venable, 30, and Denorfia, 32, are capable of playing center on a regular basis if need be, the former moreso than the latter. They’re great role players who will see most of their action as a right field platoon. Maybin’s the clear everyday guy here despite San Diego’s center field depth.
#11 Reds
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Shin-Soo Choo 595 .273 .367 .449 .355 17.8 0.3 -9.4 3.2
Chris Heisey 70 .256 .313 .437 .324 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3
Xavier Paul 35 .261 .317 .414 .317 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .271 .359 .446 .350 18.1 0.4 -9.4 3.7
Cincinnati made arguably the boldest move of the offseason, acquiring a long-time right fielder in Choo and sticking him in center to fill a need. He can really hit (righties, anyway) and will be a great catalyst atop a powerhouse lineup, but transitioning to center could be very messy. Choo hasn’t rated as a strong defender in right in recent years and the shift to the up-the-middle spot could lead to a lot more base hits for the opposition. It’s a risky but incredibly gutsy move.
Heisey, 28, could see quite a bit more playing in center than we’re projecting if manager Dusty Baker platoons Choo — who really struggles against lefties — liberally this summer. It would improve the defense for sure, and likely the offense if the aforementioned platoon is deployed properly. The 28-year-old Paul is an extra part who will fill-in during injuries or serve as a warm body in September.
#12 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Bourn 630 .264 .335 .361 .307 -1.6 3.5 7.6 3.4
Drew Stubbs 70 .226 .302 .355 .290 -1.2 0.3 0.1 0.2
Total 700 .260 .332 .360 .306 -2.7 3.9 7.7 3.6
Michael Brantley’s stint as the everyday center fielder didn’t last much more than one season, as he’s now just the third best player at the position on Cleveland’s depth chart. He’ll man left field with Bourn in center and Stubbs in right under the team’s new “three center fielders” outfield with Nick Swisher sliding in at first base.
Bourn, 30, had to wait quite a while before landing his big contract, but he brings elite speed, base-running, and defense to the Indians’ lineup. Given his fat new $48 million contract, expect the former Brave to play as many innings as possible in center while the 28-year-old Stubbs utilizes his four-tool package in right field. He has every tool but the most important one, the ability to make contact. Stubbs is a more than capable center field replacement, meaning Brantley will need to get some breaks to return to his old position regularly.
#13 Braves
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
B.J. Upton 630 .248 .324 .443 .331 8.2 1.8 -0.5 3.4
Reed Johnson 35 .256 .304 .373 .295 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Jose Constanza 35 .270 .321 .344 .291 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .250 .323 .434 .327 7.0 1.8 -0.4 3.6
The Braves spent an awful lot of money on the 28-year-old Upton and seem at least somewhat hopeful pairing him with his brother will bring out the best in the two players. The elder Upton has been both pretty good and disappointing in recent years, rattling off 3+ win seasons for the last half-decade. People just expected more and that’s led to him being underrated. Upton’s going to hit for power, steal a ton of bases, and play serviceable at worst defense. That’s a pretty darn good player, arguably better than what they got out of Michael Bourn last year given the general work-in-progress nature of defensive metrics.
Both Johnson, 36, and Costanza, 29, are platoon bats and more emergency center fielders than someone you’d feel comfortable running out there on an everyday basis. I do wonder if Atlanta would use Justin Upton in center should B.J. get hurt, but we have no reason to believe they would right now.
#14 Giants
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Angel Pagan 630 .276 .332 .410 .320 5.5 1.8 0.3 3.2
Andres Torres 70 .238 .325 .373 .307 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3
Total 700 .272 .331 .406 .318 5.4 1.9 0.7 3.5
GM Brian Sabean has shown these last three years that he’s happy to bring back players who helped his team win the World Series, though some (Aubrey Huff and Freddy Sanchez) haven’t worked out as well as others (Javier Lopez). The 31-year-old Pagan has settled in as a slightly above-average offensive player (108 wRC+) who will steal lots of bases but has mixed defensive reviews. Seriously, his UZR has gone from fantastic (9.0 in 2010) to awful (-14.3 in 2011) to average (0.1 in 2012) the last three years. DRS went from great in 2010 to solidly below-average these last two seasons, so believe whichever you want.
Torres, 35, returns in a platoon role and figures to see most of his action in left field alongside Gregor Blanco. His defense is his strength though, so he’s a more than solid backup center fielder. Just don’t ever expect him to repeat his 2010 performance as well.
#15 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Coco Crisp 525 .263 .328 .399 .316 2.1 3.5 -0.7 2.6
Chris Young 175 .229 .322 .402 .317 0.8 0.2 1.8 1.0
Total 700 .255 .326 .400 .317 3.0 3.6 1.2 3.5
The Athletics are one of the few teams with two legitimate center fielders on their roster, but the club has already announced their plans to use the 29-year-old Young as a utility outfielder. After a brief experiment last year, Yoenis Cespedes isn’t on the center field radar.
Crisp, 33, will start in center even though he’s an inferior player, but there’s a good chance he’ll wind up as trade bait at some point. As a legitimate leadoff-type center fielder who is owned just $7 million this year with a $7.5 million club option for next year, he should have pretty good trade value. Young would then step right in and play everyday. Oakland has some nice flexibility at a key up-the-middle position.
#16 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam Jones 630 .279 .329 .473 .344 12.5 0.2 -4.7 3.3
Nate McLouth 63 .234 .324 .387 .312 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.2
Xavier Avery 7 .236 .304 .339 .285 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .274 .328 .464 .340 11.9 0.3 -5.0 3.5
Only four players played in all 162 games last year, including the 27-year-old Jones. His upward power trend continued with a career-high .218 ISO, and he’s entering what should be the peak of his career. Considering how much Jones figures to play — nearly every inning of the season with the 31-year-old McLouth and 23-year-old Avery filling in on the rarest of occasions– and the chances of him outshooting his projection (pretty good, in my opinion), we might be underrating the Orioles a bit in center field.
#17 Rockies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Dexter Fowler 630 .273 .368 .450 .355 10.8 1.0 -6.2 3.0
Tyler Colvin 35 .260 .304 .483 .334 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Eric Young 35 .267 .343 .380 .318 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .272 .364 .448 .352 10.3 1.2 -6.1 3.3
Fowler, 26, had a breakout offensive season that was at least due in part to Coors Field — 142 wRC+ at home vs. 98 wRC+. Road stats don’t represent a player’s true talent level — almost all players hit better at home than on the road — but it’s a certainty that Fowler benefited from playing in Colorado. How much exactly? We don’t really know.
Behind Fowler are two 27-year-olds in Colvin and Young. Colvin will see plenty of time in the corner outfield spots and at first base, but Young’s spot is a little more up in the air. Fowler dealt with nagging wrist and ankle injuries last season after spending time on the DL in both 2010 and 2011, so more health issues would presumably put Young in the field on a more regular basis.
#18 Nationals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Denard Span 595 .270 .332 .368 .308 -3.0 0.9 6.9 2.8
Roger Bernadina 105 .250 .322 .385 .309 -0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4
Total 700 .267 .330 .371 .308 -3.5 1.2 6.9 3.2
There’s a pretty great case to be made that the Nationals acquiring Span was the single best move off the offseason. The 29-year-old rebounded a bit last summer following two injury-bothered seasons, but I don’t think he’ll ever get back to the 119 wRC+ form he showed from 2008-2009. Still, a bat-control hitter with speed is a pretty useful player, especially when he’s among the best defenders at a premium position. Add in a contract that will pay Span just $11.25 million over the next two years with a $9 million club option for a third year and you wonder how GM Mike Rizzo acquired him for one Single-A pitching prospect.
Bernadina, 28, finally started to put it all together last season, though I’m not sold on the idea of a .359 BABIP being his true talent level given a strikeout rate that resides north of 20%. Regardless, he’s a very useful left-handed hitter for the bench and a more than capable center field fill-in. Bryce Harper is always a possibility in center, but he’s pushed down the depth chart.
#19 Brewers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Gomez 665 .248 .303 .410 .308 -3.6 3.3 4.8 3.0
Logan Schafer 35 .262 .315 .390 .307 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .249 .303 .409 .308 -3.8 3.3 4.9 3.2
The Brewers just signed the 27-year-old Gomez to what amounts to a four-year, $28.3 million extension about a week ago, which struck me as a pretty great deal given his age and upward-trending power numbers. His defense and stolen base ability alone make him a legitimate starting center fielder even though he strikes out a ton and rarely walks. Gomez has a starting job locked down for the first time since his age-22 season with the Twins, and he’s in a much better position to handle that role right now.
Schafer, 26, is finally in the position to get a legitimate crack at a big league bench job. He’s a left-handed hitter with a strong defensive reputation, so pretty much the typical NL reserve outfielder. Milwaukee is a little thin after Schafer, with Norichika Aoki the fallback.
#20 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alejandro De Aza 665 .273 .337 .406 .324 1.2 0.3 1.8 2.9
DeWayne Wise 35 .242 .285 .403 .296 -0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .272 .334 .406 .323 0.5 0.4 1.8 3.0
The ChiSox have a knack for turning nothing into something, but usually on the pitching side. De Aza, 28, went from Triple-A fodder and up-and-down guy to everyday center fielder last summer, stealing bases (26-for-38, 68.4%) and drawing walks (8.0 BB%) offensively and playing the position with aplomb on defense. The 34-year-old Wise is the obvious backup since the team seems committed to keeping Alex Rios in center, so De Aza is the clear starter unless he suddenly reverts back to his pre-2011 form. That would make things a little messy on the south side.
#21 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Leonys Martin 455 .274 .334 .432 .331 2.1 -1.1 0.2 1.9
Craig Gentry 210 .264 .326 .355 .301 -4.1 0.7 4.6 0.9
Julio Borbon 35 .272 .318 .370 .300 -0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .271 .331 .406 .320 -2.8 -0.3 4.9 2.9
With Josh Hamilton in an Angels uniform, the center field position in Arlington is a little more open than it had been in the past. Martin, 24, had a strong (164 wRC+) but injury-shortened (thumb) season in Triple-A last year, but he’s poised to play the position regularly as the left-handed half of a platoon with the 29-year-old Gentry. Gentry proved his worth last summer by destroying southpaws (136 wRC+) and playing strong defense, making him the obvious candidate for the right-handed half. Borbon is out of options and I suppose he could wind up starting over Martin, but that would surprise me. The Rangers didn’t give Martin $15.5 million not to play center when the job opened up.
#22 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Lorenzo Cain 560 .265 .321 .398 .314 -0.7 0.8 2.2 2.4
Jarrod Dyson 140 .253 .315 .333 .286 -3.4 1.4 0.6 0.4
Total 700 .263 .320 .385 .309 -4.0 2.2 2.8 2.8
I’m not going to say it’s now or never time for Cain, but he’ll turn 27 about two weeks after Opening Day and needs to establish himself this season if he wants to be a big leaguer long-term. Groin and hamstring issues sabotaged his 2012 season, but Cain has proven all he’s needed to prove in Triple-A these last three years. At the very least he’ll steal some bases and play strong defense. Dyson, 28, is a classic one-tool guy who will use his speed to steal bases and run down balls in the outfield. That’s it.
#23 Phillies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ben Revere 630 .282 .326 .343 .296 -9.7 2.9 6.3 2.4
John Mayberry 70 .250 .309 .422 .316 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3
Total 700 .279 .324 .351 .298 -9.7 2.9 6.0 2.6
The Twins traded not one, but two legitimate starting center fielder this winter. Span went to the Nationals and the 24-year-old Revere went to the Phillies, bringing his speed and defense combination to a team that really doesn’t have much of that outside of Jimmy Rollins. Revere won’t hit for any power — zero homers in 1,064 big league plate appearances and just five in 1,755 minor league plate appearances — or draw walks, but he’s going to slap the ball around the infield like nobody’s business.
Mayberry, 29, is going to platoon in one of the corner outfield spots (maybe even first base? nah) and will fill-in at center when necessary. the job is Revere’s, no questions asked.
#24 Cubs
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
David DeJesus 525 .264 .345 .401 .327 3.6 -1.3 -1.2 2.1
Dave Sappelt 105 .269 .318 .388 .307 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 0.3
Brett Jackson 35 .231 .319 .402 .314 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Brent Lillibridge 35 .220 .283 .336 .273 -1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .261 .337 .396 .321 1.1 -1.5 -0.8 2.6
DeJesus, 33, is in the final year of his contract and is prime trade bait for the rebuilding Cubbies. It’s safe to say his hold on the center field job is temporary. Sappelt, 26, is the spare part who could sub into center in a pinch but is not a long-term answer. Lillibridge, 29, is the journeyman on a minor league contract who serves as depth and nothing more.
The real prize here is Jackson, the team’s 24-year-old top-ish prospect who looks an awful lot like a left-handed Stubbs clone. He’s got power, will draw a walk, and can play a mean center field, but his contact issues are extreme. The Cubs did overhaul his swing a bit over the winter, but that kind of stuff is in “best shape of his life” territory coming into Spring Training. We’ll need to see it in action during the regular season before we declare him cured of career-long strikeout issues (26.4 K% in over 1,800 minor league plate appearances). The job will be his to lose at some point in the next 12 months.
#25 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Colby Rasmus 420 .243 .317 .440 .325 2.9 0.2 -1.3 1.8
Emilio Bonifacio 70 .257 .322 .338 .292 -1.4 0.4 -0.4 0.1
Rajai Davis 70 .259 .308 .369 .295 -1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.2
Anthony Gose 140 .234 .307 .352 .292 -2.7 0.9 0.6 0.4
Total 700 .244 .314 .405 .312 -2.5 1.9 -1.3 2.5
Like I said before, I was a big Rasmus guy but he hasn’t been able to put it all together yet. The 26-year-old has very legitimate power, but he’s a big-time fly ball hitter who doesn’t drew enough walks to offset the damage they do to his batting average and by extension, on-base percentage. Rasmus has a lot of talent and could really breakout at any given moment, but I’m no longer on the bandwagon.
The Blue Jays have plenty of center field depth should they need to go in another direction for whatever reason. Gose, 22, has speed and some power to go along with good defense, but he’s likely ticketed for Triple-A to start the year. The 27-year-old Bonifacio figures to see most of his time at second base and as a supersub than anything while Davis, 32, could wind up getting a lot more playing time than projected as a platoon bat. Melky Cabrera is another center field alternative, but he’s way down on the depth chart now.
#26 Marlins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Ruggiano 350 .259 .323 .418 .322 1.9 -0.3 1.5 1.7
Gorkys Hernandez 140 .237 .305 .339 .288 -3.1 0.0 0.5 0.3
Alfredo Silverio 105 .247 .284 .394 .291 -2.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.1
Christian Yelich 105 .247 .302 .376 .296 -1.6 0.1 -0.3 0.2
Total 700 .251 .311 .393 .307 -4.8 -0.5 1.1 2.3
Ruggiano, 30, went from journeyman to 146 wRC+ last season, meaning he’ll open this year with a full-time big league job for the first time in his career. Is he going to repeat a .401 BABIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate? Not a chance. But the power has always been legit, especially against southpaws. Ruggiano is miscast as an everyday player, but he would be useful in the right situation.
Hernandez and Silverio are both 25 and former top prospects who have lost some luster over the years, the latter due to injuries sustained during a car accident. Silverio is a Rule 5 Draft pick and could hang around on the roster for a while given the team’s situation. The 21-year-old Yelich is one of the best prospects in baseball, but he has zero plate appearances above High-A and is more of a second half candidate than anything. At the very least, expect the Marlins to delay his arbitration and free agency clocks.
#27 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Maxwell 490 .220 .307 .408 .311 -0.8 0.2 1.9 2.0
Brandon Barnes 175 .228 .282 .361 .279 -4.8 -0.2 0.2 0.2
Rick Ankiel 21 .224 .292 .387 .296 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Trevor Crowe 14 .244 .307 .353 .293 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .223 .300 .394 .302 -6.2 0.0 1.9 2.3
The Astros found a useful piece in the 29-year-old Maxwell, who hits lefties hard (144 wRC+) and plays a strong center field. He’s a role player on a contending team but a full-timer for Houston, who is in the middle of a massive rebuilding process. Barnes, 26, and Crowe, 29, are up-and-down types while the 33-year-old Ankiel could wind up making the team as a bench or platoon player. Maxwell serves a role but the rest of the guys are just placeholders until George Springer is ready.
#28 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Franklin Gutierrez 420 .243 .301 .359 .287 -6.3 0.2 2.5 1.3
Michael Saunders 210 .233 .307 .384 .302 -0.6 0.3 -0.8 0.7
Casper Wells 70 .223 .305 .395 .305 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3
Total 700 .238 .303 .370 .294 -6.9 0.4 2.1 2.2
It’s been two years since the 30-year-old Gutierrez stayed healthy for a full season, so meeting the projection would be his most playing time since 2010. The defensive projection isn’t as strong as his track record and reputation suggest, which is a problem since basically his entire game is built around his glove. Saunders is a fine backup plan given his breakout season a year ago (108 wRC+), though the 26-year-old is not much defensively in center. Seattle doesn’t seem to like the 28-year-old Wells all that much and he could change teams before the start of the season since he’s out of options.
#29 Mets
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 315 .237 .304 .383 .300 -2.6 -0.1 0.3 1.0
Collin Cowgill 280 .252 .316 .366 .299 -2.5 0.2 0.0 0.8
Jordany Valdespin 105 .253 .291 .386 .293 -1.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.2
Total 700 .245 .307 .377 .298 -6.5 -0.2 -0.2 2.0
The Mets have the worst outfield in baseball and maybe the worst of the last decade, so it’s no surprised they’re right near the bottom of our rankings. Nieuwenhuis, 25, is the best defender of the group but he struggles to make contact and can’t hit lefties. Cowgill, 26, could fit in as a right-handed platoon partner while the 25-year-old Valdespin is more of an infielder than an outfielder. He’s had some highlight reel moments and the team seems to like him, but it’s tough to see him spending any time regularly in center.
#30 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Aaron Hicks 490 .234 .316 .356 .296 -7.3 -0.1 1.6 1.3
Darin Mastroianni 210 .244 .314 .326 .285 -5.0 1.1 0.6 0.5
Total 700 .237 .316 .347 .292 -12.3 0.9 2.2 1.8
I’m a Hicks fan despite his somewhat slow climb up the minor league ladder, though the Twins appear poised to jump the 23-year-old over Triple-A and use him as their everyday center fielder in the wake of the Span and Revere trades. Hicks is a tools machine and will do pretty much everything aside from hit for power, so he’s a younger version of Span with more long-term upside. His rookie year could be ugly though.
Mastroianni, 27, is a speedster who could wind up playing everyday in a corner spot depending on the health of Josh Willingham and production of Chris Parmalee. The injury prone Joe Benson is the only other legitimate center field option Minnesota has beyond Hicks and Mastroianni.
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2013 Positional Power Rankings: Right Field.
Right field seems like a place you put slow-footed sluggers that can murder the ball at the plate, and yet I remember playing a lot of right field because it was thought that I would do the least amount of defensive damage at the position. The combination of big offense and bad defense at the position might be changing — look closely at this year’s crop and you could be underwhelmed by the bats, and you’ll also see some players that produce despite low-powered plate production. And yet, one of the most exciting young (and, yes, powerful) players in baseball is atop the chart at the position — at least the Marlins have one thing going for them.
Right field — maybe not as sexy as your father’s right field, but still fairly attractive.
#1 Marlins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Giancarlo Stanton 630 .280 .365 .591 .400 42.7 -1.3 6.2 6.5
Austin Kearns 70 .228 .331 .343 .302 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .275 .362 .567 .390 42.0 -1.4 6.0 6.5
The batting average could be a little generous for a guy that struck out more than 28% of the time last year, but Stanton just turned 23. He’s still pre-peak when it comes to most plate discipline peripherals, and he could be expected to improve his strikeout rate. Elite power can also turn outs into hits, and he certainly has elite power. Since he entered the league, his .282 isolated slugging percentage is second only to Jose Bautista over the same time frame. Elite power, good patience, and decent fielding — that makes you the best at your position. Even if the skinflint team you’re on can’t afford to provide you with a decent backup.
#2 Braves
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jason Heyward 630 .266 .350 .475 .355 20.4 0.9 11.5 4.9
Reed Johnson 35 .256 .304 .373 .295 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Jose Constanza 35 .270 .321 .344 .291 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .266 .346 .463 .349 19.2 0.9 11.6 5.0
Jason Heyward. He’s good! Really, really good. And… done. Obviously Heyward made some progress last season, and much of it was in the power department. A positive for Heyward is the fact that he hit fewer ground balls this season — fly balls are good for the power stroke. Maybe less positive is the fact that his ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio regressed closer to career norms as the season went on, but still, if you look at his season as a whole, he hit fewer ground balls and showed more power. Seems like he can do that again, especially once you consider his frame and swing. He probably won’t get platooned with Jose Constanza again, as crazy as that was, and while there would be a massive drop off in talent if he was hurt, a Constanza/Reed Johnson partnership could do a decent job of filling in for a while.
#3 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jose Bautista 490 .266 .393 .545 .396 31.5 -0.1 -3.1 4.1
Rajai Davis 105 .259 .308 .369 .295 -1.8 0.6 -0.3 0.1
Moises Sierra 105 .248 .305 .385 .299 -1.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .262 .367 .491 .366 28.3 0.2 -3.6 4.3
Given his age (32) and injury history, it’s probably good for the Blue Jays that Jose Bautista’s backups are slightly better than Heyward’s. And you could say that Rajai Davis is a better corner outfield defender than he’s shown. With Anthony Gose still in the system, there are a few different configurations that could either serve to fill in for an injured Bautista or keep him healthy with periodic rests. And it’s worth trying to keep that bat in the lineup — even in a down year that was ended prematurely with a wrist injury, Bautista showed his customary power and patience to the tune of park-adjusted offense that was 40% better than the league average. He’s still got some great years in him.
#4 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Josh Hamilton 595 .273 .340 .494 .351 19.6 0.7 1.8 3.7
Mark Trumbo 70 .261 .312 .476 .335 1.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.3
Kole Calhoun 35 .245 .311 .408 .315 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .270 .336 .488 .347 21.1 0.7 1.5 4.1
Josh Hamilton might not have the best approach at the plate. And one of his best skills — making contact on bad pitches outside the zone — ages more poorly than other skills. But he’s only 32 and he does offer value with his base running and defense that will help mitigate any negatives that come from a rising strikeout rate. A few nicks and cuts shouldn’t hurt the team too much, either. Mark Trumbo, with all his flaws, is pretty powerful for a backup. This group of outfielders is deep and has elite upside.
#5 Reds
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jay Bruce 630 .258 .341 .498 .354 18.3 -1.0 -0.4 3.3
Chris Heisey 35 .256 .313 .437 .324 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Xavier Paul 35 .261 .317 .414 .317 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .258 .339 .491 .351 18.4 -1.0 -0.4 3.4
Jay Bruce is 26. He’s only 26! His power is trending upwards, his patience has settled in at an above-average rate, and he’s not a terrible defender or baserunner, at least not at this point in his career. With a little bit of BABIP love and a slight defensive bounce-back, he could return to his three-plus win days. With a lot of BABIP love, he could have a career year. But of course, the prudent thing is to forecast him for negative defense, some hiccups on the basepaths, and enough patience and power to be comfortably above average. Behind him a platoon of Paul and Heisey could provide power, patience and defense, but just not all in one place at one time.
#6 Cardinals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Beltran 581 .268 .352 .463 .346 16.4 -0.8 -2.1 2.8
Matt Carpenter 35 .264 .354 .395 .328 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Oscar Taveras 70 .279 .332 .446 .331 1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.3
Allen Craig 14 .289 .346 .494 .359 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .269 .350 .459 .344 18.5 -0.9 -2.5 3.2
Because he is 36, age has to be the first thing that is discussed with Carlos Beltran. He has averaged over 600 plate appearances over his last two seasons, but that does feel like a coup after the two seasons he lost to knee injury. Now that he’s battling a toe thing in the spring, it’s a little easier to remember that at one point it was fair to wonder how much time he had left in a starting role. When he’s in there, he’ll still have power and patience and he won’t cost the team anywhere either. When he’s not, the team has good depth to make up for his absence. If it’s not Matt Carpenter — he might win the starting role at second base — it’s probably Matt Adams, who is projected for an above-average wOBA based mostly on his power. He would add to depth at the position by playing first base and pushes Allen Craig to the outfield, where he was a neutral defender with a great bat. Or the Cardinals call up Oscar Taveras, perhaps the best prospect in the minors. This is a deep team.
#7 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ben Zobrist 245 .260 .363 .442 .349 7.9 0.0 1.1 1.5
Wil Myers 350 .253 .322 .439 .328 5.7 -0.2 0.0 1.4
Sam Fuld 35 .241 .318 .343 .293 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1
Brandon Guyer 35 .257 .311 .407 .311 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 665 .255 .336 .433 .333 13.2 -0.2 1.4 3.1
It’s so… Ben Zobrist that Ben Zobrist is atop the depth chart in right field and is projected for the bulk of his plate appearances at other positions. Or maybe it’s Rays-ian. In any case, it’s not a surprise to see a deep chart at this position given the Rays platoon-heavy versatility-first philosophy. Zobrist is above-average in all facets of the game, but when super prospect Wil Myers is ready, he’ll probably move back to second base most days, unless he’s needed at shortstop. Myers should show power and patience in his debut, even if the contact rate is a question, but if he struggles, Brandon Guyer might even be able to give above-average production if he’s limited to facing lefties — provided his shoulder is fine after surgery last year. Hopefully the Rays won’t have to run their designated hitter out there in right field very often, or need defensive replacement Sam Fuld a ton.
#8 Dodgers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Andre Ethier 595 .270 .348 .437 .337 13.8 -1.1 -0.9 2.7
Jerry Hairston 70 .258 .329 .376 .311 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1
Alex Castellanos 35 .243 .310 .393 .306 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .267 .344 .429 .333 13.9 -1.2 -1.1 2.9
Andre Ethier doesn’t think he’s a platoon player — just a few more hits versus southpaws every season and people would be off his back, he said recently — and his manager agrees, saying that Ethier will be out there as an everyday player. And that he’d sit him occasionally against a tough left-hander. It’s not just a few singles that separate Ethier from being a platoon-neutral player, however. He walks less, strikes out more, and loses a fair amount of his power against lefties (.215 ISO vs RHP, .115 ISO vs LHP), and with power that’s more ‘above-average’ than ‘no-doubt,’ that’s significant. But even if he’s a punch-and-judy guy against 1/3 of the league, Ethier has power and patience and the ability to make contact against the other 2/3 of the league. He’s not a statue out in right field, either. It might be nice if a team as deep as the Dodgers didn’t have to go to a backup middle infielder or an untested rookie when their outfielder was out of the lineup, though.
#9 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Josh Reddick 525 .242 .304 .437 .316 2.1 -0.2 6.3 2.1
Chris Young 175 .229 .322 .402 .317 0.8 0.2 1.8 0.7
Total 700 .239 .308 .429 .317 2.9 -0.1 8.1 2.8
The Oakland depth chart was a frequent topic of conversation at the FanGraphs retreat, at least in circles where this correspondent was included. The team is known for its love of the platoon and belief in roster depth, and they have multiple options at each position. While the infield might be kicking the ball around during spring training, the outfield has four excellent defenders with decent bats. All things equal, you’ll probably want to start Josh Reddick for his power most days, since Chris Young’s defense is less important in right field. But Reddick may find himself at designated hitter some days. Or it might Yoenis Cespedes or even Coco Crisp at DH as they nurse a nick or cut. There is no consensus on which outfielder is the best defensive center fielder — if you think it’s Chris Young you won’t be alone — so this depth chart may need some reworking depending on what the team thinks of Coco Crisp’s glove. In any case, Oakland has good-but-not great outfielders, and great depth, and that’s how they ended up above the fold.
#10 Nationals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jayson Werth 630 .257 .353 .425 .337 11.5 0.6 -4.9 2.3
Bryce Harper 35 .269 .343 .470 .349 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.2
Roger Bernadina 35 .250 .322 .385 .309 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .257 .351 .425 .336 12.3 0.7 -4.6 2.5
The mountain man turns 34 this year, and he’s returning from a year marred by injury. Even if the wrist injury affects his power, he’s shown enough patience and defense that he should be close to a league-average player. He’s a high-percentage base stealer even into his thirties, and his double-digit walk rates have followed him into even the worst of seasons. It’s probably folly to believe in his recent improvement in swinging strike and strikeout rates — given his age — but in a full year, it would be a good idea to forecast him for scratch or better defense, good work on the basebaths, and elite patience. The power is an open question mark. When he’s out, and Bryce Harper is needed in left, it’ll be the Shark (Roger Bernandina) taking his iffy plate discipline and good corner-outfield defense to the field.
#11 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nick Markakis 630 .285 .356 .440 .344 12.5 -0.3 -4.7 2.3
Nate McLouth 70 .234 .324 .387 .312 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.1
Total 700 .280 .353 .435 .341 12.2 -0.1 -5.0 2.4
When you compare the production of the right fielders in Baltimore to their counterparts in Boston, it might be tempting to say that Boston’s are being under-rated. After all, Victorino has accrued six more career wins than Markakis, and in fewer plate appearances. But you have to remember that Victorino put up those wins as a center fielder, and his defensive value is lessened in right field. Once you put them on level playing fields, they’re much more comparable. Markakis doesn’t quite provide the same level of production when it comes to his athleticism — his fielding has eroded and he’s not quite the baserunner he used to be — but the Oriole can still make a lot of contact with above-average power and patience. And he’s not quite a negative in other facets of the game. Nate McLouth is a wild card at this point in the game, but as a two-week replacement, he should be able to field his position and run into a few powerful drives.
#12 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Torii Hunter 595 .279 .342 .433 .335 8.6 -0.6 0.6 2.3
Avisail Garcia 105 .252 .281 .373 .283 -2.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Total 700 .275 .333 .423 .328 5.7 -0.7 0.7 2.3
Yes, Torii Hunter had a .389 batting average on balls in play last year and that’s not likely to continue. But! Hunter has been hitting more and more ground balls and fewer and fewer fly balls and infield fly balls as he’s aged. These changes in his game are more conducive to better BABIPs, especially when they are paired with improvements in his line drive rate as they have been. These might all be conscious alterations to his game — after all, he’s not as fast or as powerful as he used to be, so ground balls make more sense. Now a full-time corner outfielder, his glove is likely to be an asset, and even if his speed has waned, he shouldn’t be a negative on the basepaths. He’s just around league average when it comes to walk and strikeout rates, and if you add it all up, you get a slightly better than league average right fielder. Now the Tigers just have to hope that the veteran won’t go down to injury — he’s been very resilient over his career — or that backup Avisail Garcia shows some improvement in his plate discipline. Otherwise the team will feel a little light on days where their new number two hitter is out of the lineup.
#13 Brewers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Norichika Aoki 630 .288 .349 .396 .326 5.5 -0.4 0.1 2.0
Caleb Gindl 70 .255 .316 .423 .322 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2
Total 700 .285 .346 .399 .326 5.9 -0.4 0.2 2.2
Even if the 31-year-old Norichika Aoki’s work was a surprise to some, it seems likely he can provide a reasonable facsimilie of his 2012 work. If you focus on his defense in the corners — Carlos Gomez was recently extended and looks like the everyday center fielder these days — he was an asset. The former center fielder should have been good with the glove in right field. He isn’t the most powerful bat — the league-average isolated slugging percentage might have been the most surprising aspect of his production last season. It might be best to forecast some regression there. The contact rate and the baserunning were both strengths of his game in Japan that seem likely to translate well (and did). So if you add a little value with the glove and take a little away with the bat, and leave the contact rate and speed, you still end up with the fact that Aoki is one of the league’s best bargains, and an average major leaguer. Outfield prospect Kris Davis may slug his way on to the roster this spring, but it’s more likely the team will use the stout non-prospect Caleb Gindl to fill in during those rare stints during which Aoki needs a breather. The little man has some pop.
#14 Giants
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Hunter Pence 630 .266 .329 .426 .326 9.0 -0.3 -3.3 2.1
Gregor Blanco 35 .232 .325 .331 .294 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1
Andres Torres 35 .238 .325 .373 .307 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .263 .329 .419 .324 8.5 -0.1 -2.8 2.2
This ranking might have angered some, so including the park factors and pushing it up to #14 from #20 will hopefully calm the reflux. Hunter Pence could certainly push the Giants up a few spots higher on sheer willpower and weirdness alone, but if you look closely at his peripherals, the news isn’t good. He just put up the worst strikeout rate of his career, built on the second-worst swinging strike rate of his career. Both numbers are in the midst of a three-year decline. He never had much patience, and now his power is trending downwards. His wheels are fading, and his defense — which was always iffy when it came to routes — is suffering. The last two years he’s been a negative in the field, and last season his bat was only two percent above league average. He’s never been a line drive hitter, or never once hit them at a rate that was league-average or better, and that usually manifests itself in a bad batting average that has been propped up to respectable by a streaky month or two. Last year that streak never came, and with the rest of his decline in mind, it makes sense to wonder if Pence is a great asset in right field any more. If he isn’t, Blanco should give enough patience and defense to hold the entire unit steady, but he doesn’t have the upside you might want coming up behind the Human Praying Mantis.
#15 Padres
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Will Venable 420 .246 .320 .400 .311 2.4 1.3 0.6 1.4
Chris Denorfia 245 .267 .327 .404 .317 2.7 -0.2 -0.8 0.8
Mark Kotsay 35 .255 .318 .356 .295 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .254 .322 .399 .312 4.9 1.0 -0.4 2.2
Will Venable is 30 years old. Is that surprising? He’s spent many years on sleeper lists, but it looks like he won’t ever wake up to his full potential at this point. The tools that made him so alluring are a little duller these days, and though he has gradually whittled away at his strikeout rate, he never ironed out the platoon problems, and so his upside has been limited. Some of his nascent patience never really came to fruition either, and by now his defense is starting to fade. He’ll still be at least two thirds of an above-average player, most likely, and now that the fences in right field will be a little closer, the lefty might even have a career year. The breakable Denorfia offers some security blanket, at least against lefties, but Mark Kotsay wishes he was thirty.
#16 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nelson Cruz 595 .265 .327 .482 .345 9.5 -0.8 -2.2 2.1
Julio Borbon 70 .272 .318 .370 .300 -1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Leonys Martin 35 .274 .334 .432 .331 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .266 .326 .469 .340 8.3 -0.8 -2.1 2.2
The first comment on this piece when it originally pubbed was a reaction to this ranking and the Rockies’ ranking. Well, kudos. The Rangers dropped to #16 from #8 once the park was factored in. Nelson Cruz is no longer as athletic as he used to be, as judged by his value added by fielding and baserunning metrics. He still steals some bases, but as you can see from his Bill James four-component speed score, his wheels are no longer the asset they used to be. He never took a lot of walks really, and he strikes out a little much. But he’s got enough power to be above average when you take the whole package into account, and he’s got decent backups on a team with good depth. That’s actually fairly important — last season was the first in the 33-year-old’s seven-year career in which he crossed the 600-plate-appearance threshhold. It might be surprising to see him come in below the likes of Michael Cuddyer and the right fielders in Colorado, but his relative frailty has to factor in on some level. His best backup, Leonys Martin, will probably see the bulk of his time in center field, leaving the flawed Julio Borbon as the backup plan.
#17 Pirates
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Travis Snider 455 .264 .328 .434 .329 6.5 -0.4 -0.8 1.6
Garrett Jones 105 .258 .321 .458 .332 1.8 -0.2 -0.5 0.4
Josh Harrison 105 .262 .303 .380 .298 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Jose Tabata 35 .268 .337 .381 .317 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .263 .324 .427 .324 7.4 -0.7 -1.5 2.2
After a challenge trade saw Snider land in Pittsburgh, he began the tough, post-hype task of attempting to secure a major league starting role. He did manage to improve his plate discipline in 2012, but the power he showed in 2011 has not returned to the big leagues with him since. He still looks like a monster with many-tooled upside, as his highlight-real catches and tape-measure power suggest. And at 25, he could put in a peak year performance this year. But he still strikes out too much, and even the projections as they currently stand might seem optimistic once the season is over. Garrett Jones is a bit old, and also a lefty, so it’s not a natural platoon, but they may pick the veteran over the rook from time to time. There’s only so many whiffs a manager can take before he changes the lineup, if only to make a temporary point. Jose Tabata also looks resurgent in camp and could push the young southpaw.
#18 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Shane Victorino 525 .270 .339 .422 .330 3.3 1.9 0.5 1.8
Daniel Nava 175 .249 .340 .384 .319 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.3
Total 700 .265 .339 .413 .327 2.8 1.7 0.4 2.2
The Red Sox drop from #10 to #18 after the park factors were put back in. Shane Victorino is 33 years old, too, and has less power than Cruz, but he has the benefit of falling from a more well-rounded peak. He’s still good on the basepaths, and he can still play center. Do you believe his platoon splits are a problem? Maybe not. Even if he’s not a natural platoon partner, Jonny Gomes can mash taters off lefties in his sleep. The Boston outfield will probably be a work in progress all year, though. If the team isn’t competitive in the middle of the summer, they’ll likely jettison their current center fielder for longer-term assets, and either move Victorino to center field or audition prospect Jackie Bradley, Jr in center. Ryan Kalish just had another shoulder surgery and his career could be in trouble, or he could come back healthy and provide at least platoon-worthy production at one of the corners. In any case, with all of these possible moving parts, it’s nice to have an outfielder that can hit in a couple spots in the lineup and play all three outfield positions, even if he’s not quite the high-flyer he used to be.
#19 Rockies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Cuddyer 490 .280 .342 .487 .354 7.7 0.0 -5.7 1.4
Tyler Colvin 175 .260 .304 .483 .334 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.4
Eric Young 35 .267 .343 .380 .318 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .274 .333 .481 .347 7.3 0.3 -5.8 1.8
Every other year or so, Cuddyer lays a stinker. He’s been injured (2012), and bad (2010) and both (200
. Sometimes his defense undoes much of the good his bat has in it, like it did in 2009 when he hit 32 home runs and still didn’t crack three wins of value. But now relegated mostly to outfield and first base, his defense has been more ‘meh’ than ‘yuck’ the last couple of years, and that allows his average patience and above-average power to push the full package past the average right fielders. Behind him, Tyler Colvin is all power (against-right handers) and not much else, but along with the speed-first Eric Young, he provides the team with a decent backup plan. Colvin may even end up playing most of the year if the team finally trades their veteran, in which case you’d downgrade the positional ranking slightly, but not by much. It’s still not this position that’s going to cause the Rockies heartburn this season, even if the extreme park factors in Colorado dropped this ranking from #7 to #19.
#20 Phillies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Delmon Young 385 .278 .314 .442 .323 2.4 -0.6 -2.4 0.8
Domonic Brown 140 .266 .338 .447 .336 2.4 -0.2 -0.7 0.5
Laynce Nix 105 .241 .304 .421 .311 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.2
John Mayberry 70 .250 .309 .422 .316 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .267 .317 .438 .323 4.5 -1.0 -2.9 1.7
At 27, Delmon Young is ostensibly headed into his prime years, but you’d be forgiven for not noticing. His power — his greatest asset — already looks like it’s in a decline from a peak that came three years ago, and he’s a minus in every other facet of the game. His defense has never been a positive in a full season, and his baserunning has been a negative more often than it’s been a positive. Young’s walk rate since 2010 is only better than three qualified batters over that time frame, and none of those three players have regular jobs any more. One is Yuniesky Betancourt. His character doesn’t seem like it makes up for any of his on-field failings, either. At least the Phillies have other options. Domonic Brown is projected for another 400+ plate appearances in left field, but with the varied cast of characters behind the two players, it makes sense that there will be some mixing and matching in Philadelphia. Hopefully for their fans, that mixing and matching will gradually phase out the rotund one.
#21 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alex Rios 665 .271 .313 .437 .321 -0.7 0.9 -0.1 1.6
Jordan Danks 35 .235 .314 .374 .304 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .270 .313 .434 .320 -1.2 0.9 0.1 1.6
Alex Rios has had a roller coaster of a career. Both the hero and the goat and sometimes for the same team, he’s now coming off a strong showing in the World Baseball Classic if that means anything to you. It’s hard to put stock in these things, even if he put up a career-best 125 wRC+ last year, because all you have to do is remember back to 2011, when his offense was a career-worst 41% worse than league average. And it’s not easy to see why Rios goes in and out of the tank — some years he has good power, some years he has little power. It might all be less worrisome if he had some patience to fall back on (he doesn’t), or if he was a positive in the field no matter what was going on at the plate (he isn’t). He should be good — in which case he could outproduce this ranking fairly easily — but if he isn’t, Jordan Danks and his strikeouts won’t be enough to make the Chicago faithful forget. There’s a lot of risk here.
#22 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Chris Parmelee 525 .255 .332 .407 .321 3.0 -0.9 -0.2 1.4
Darin Mastroianni 140 .244 .314 .326 .285 -3.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
Ryan Doumit 35 .260 .319 .414 .314 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .253 .328 .391 .314 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.6
Appropriately, the Twins will be handing their right field job to a player with less than 400 plate appearances in the big leagues. That isn’t to say that Parmelee doesn’t have some upside. He could walk at a double-digit rate, and he should have above-average power. But the strikeout rate is a question, and on defense he looks like the first baseman in right field that he is. If his minor league strikeout rates are to be believed, and not the contact rate he put up in 288 plate appearances last year, Parmelee the manatee could swim up the charts a few spots. But if the strikeout rate is closer to last year’s rate, and the power is only about league average, he won’t add value with his glove or his feet, and he could begin losing playing time to someone like Darin Mastroianni or Joe Benson, especially if center field goes to someone like Aaron Hicks. The personnel is here to improve upon this ranking, but it’s probably not going to do so this season.
#23 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Fernando Martinez 420 .250 .307 .430 .318 1.7 -0.6 2.4 1.4
J.D. Martinez 175 .259 .321 .395 .313 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 0.3
Jimmy Paredes 70 .253 .287 .372 .285 -1.6 0.0 -0.3 0.0
Brandon Barnes 35 .228 .282 .361 .279 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .252 .307 .412 .312 -0.9 -0.9 1.4 1.6
Fernando Martinez is 24 years old, has been around for ever, and has never once managed to put up a combined 600 plate appearances in one season. If he was a better player, we might lament that poor run of health. But he strikes out too much, never added patience, and hasn’t capitalized on his former promise. While he keeps the seat warm for better prospects like George Springer, the other Martinez will show some power and be scratch on the basepaths and in the field. It’s not the kind of thing that will net him a long-term starting job in the bigs, and though J.D. Martinez will be needed in left field, there is a way to construct this roster that puts Fernando on the bench from the get-go without bringing prospects up too early. That still might not improve the Astros’ left field situation much, considering the flaws the other Martinez owns.
#24 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Drew Stubbs 525 .226 .302 .355 .290 -8.6 2.5 0.5 0.7
Nick Swisher 175 .255 .356 .442 .347 5.1 -0.4 0.3 0.9
Total 700 .233 .315 .376 .304 -3.5 2.2 0.8 1.6
Moving Drew Stubbs to right field saps much of his value, as he’s a good defensive center fielder. But is he a Michael Bourn? Probably not. And so Stubbs moves to right field, where his strikeouts conspire with his defense to rob him of most of his value. A little bounce back in power and patience — he showed more of both in the past than he did this eason — would improve his ranking some, but probably not much. And asking him to up his power when he’s moving from Cincinnati to Cleveland might be a little much, too. Nick Swisher is a good player and we know all about him, but if you move him to the outfield full time, you’d need a replacement at first base, and none of the characters the Indians have tried there recently have proven they belong.
#25 Diamondbacks
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Cody Ross 560 .259 .325 .440 .329 2.5 -0.5 -2.0 1.3
Gerardo Parra 105 .277 .339 .407 .320 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2
A.J. Pollock 35 .269 .317 .386 .308 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .262 .327 .432 .326 1.8 -0.5 -2.1 1.6
Cody Ross is nearly 50% better (with respect to the league) against lefties than he is against righties! That screams platoon player. There’s another way to put it, though. Against righties, Cody Ross is nearly average, as his weighted runs created are only eight percent worse than league average. He’s crazlebeans against lefties, where his offense is 41% better than the league, and his isolated slugging percentage (.290) would rank with the elite sluggers in the game. So you don’t have to strictly platoon him, particularly when the guy behind him doesn’t have much better than league average offensive upside anyway. So Ross should start most days, and Parra will be somewhat of a platoon partner and a little bit more of a defensive replacement and injury caddy. Adjusting for the park slid this group down from #17 to their current ranking.
#26 Cubs
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nate Schierholtz 455 .261 .324 .423 .320 0.5 -0.3 0.0 1.1
Scott Hairston 210 .253 .308 .456 .327 1.4 -0.3 -1.4 0.5
Brent Lillibridge 35 .220 .283 .336 .273 -1.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Total 700 .257 .317 .428 .320 0.6 -0.5 -1.5 1.5
Despite the platoon splits that Nate Schierholtz has put up to date (minor), this looks like it will be almost a straight platoon. It’s not so much that Schierholtz is bad against lefties (10% worse than league average), it’s that Scott Hairston loves southpaws. He’s almost a Cody-Ross-lite, with an .224 ISO against lefties. The Chin adds value on defense and the basepaths, too, but just can’t hack it against righties enough (86 wRC+) to be a full-time answer at the position. There are plenty of outfielders coming up in the system, but none of the corner outfielders are ready just yet. That means Theo and company will cobble together a right fielder out of their scraps. It might not be as ugly as some expect, but you shouldn’t call it pretty.
#27 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Saunders 490 .233 .307 .384 .302 -1.5 0.7 -1.8 0.9
Casper Wells 175 .223 .305 .395 .305 -0.1 -0.2 0.9 0.5
Raul Ibanez 35 .241 .304 .400 .301 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0
Total 700 .231 .306 .388 .303 -1.7 0.4 -1.2 1.4
If Saunders seems too decent to have here, at this point in the list, it’s partially because he’s been getting credit for some time in center field in the past. It’s also partially because of the projection systems — all of them see Saunders taking a step back from some of his career highs last season, particularly in the power department. But Saunders has shown more patience in the past, and could walk more in the future. He also should show positive defensive numbers in the corner outfield, as long as the center fielder stays healthy. And the 26-year-old doesn’t necessarily need to step back, power-wise, especially in a year where the fences are moving in. Saunders could easily move the Mariners up in the rankings, even with Raul Ibanez and Casper Wells dragging the team down. He was, after all, the MVP of pool D in the WBC.
#28 Mets
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mike Baxter 490 .249 .331 .381 .310 0.2 -0.6 -0.1 1.1
Andrew Brown 175 .231 .302 .390 .298 -1.7 -0.4 -0.6 0.1
Total 665 .244 .323 .383 .307 -1.5 -0.9 -0.7 1.2
This probably will get ugly. The idea is the same as it is in Chicago — pick up two platoon bats and make it work — but the players involved are that much less established. Mike Baxter is patient. He can take a walk. It’s unclear if he has other skills to bring to the table. Against righties at least, he has representative power, and his defense and baserunning look like they can be scratch. But he’s probably not a great everyday player. Andrew Brown was a waiver wire scrap heap pickup that was picked up for his platoon splits against lefties. Some of those splits came in really nice offensive parks. He hasn’t really shown anything in the bigs, even against lefties. This probably will get ugly.
#29 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ichiro Suzuki 560 .286 .318 .386 .301 -7.7 1.6 1.5 0.8
Brennan Boesch 105 .257 .313 .413 .313 -0.5 0.0 -1.1 0.1
Juan Rivera 35 .254 .310 .403 .307 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .280 .317 .391 .303 -8.5 1.5 0.3 1.0
It sounds like Ichiro will be needed in left field some in the early going, since the home ground in that part of the park is bigger and Brennan Boesch is not a good defender. But once Teixeira returns, it won’t be long until Curtis Granderson is back in the fold, and by then it should be Ichiro full time in right field. We know that Ichiro is old, but this ranking feels a little light. He’s still an asset defensively on the corners, he still adds value on the basepaths, and he can still make contact with the best of them. If his new home stadium and division help arrest the decline in his power stats — and his short time as a Yankee last season seemed to suggest it could — Ichiro could easily outpace this projection. Even at 39 years old. Behind him, Boesch could benefit from a short porch in right and a fresh start, and is a decent pickup that could help push this ranking north despite his plate discipline and defensive issues.
#30 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jeff Francoeur 630 .257 .310 .410 .307 -4.4 -1.3 -4.3 0.4
Lorenzo Cain 70 .265 .321 .398 .314 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2
David Lough 35 .262 .304 .402 .306 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 735 .258 .310 .408 .308 -4.8 -1.1 -4.0 0.7
Frenchy arrives, and he rakes. Perhaps the pitchers don’t know how he’ll swing at everything, or maybe he is just driven by the need to impress new coworkers. We can’t know these things. But at some point in every honeymoon, Frenchy reverts. He starts reaching, he stops walking, and he runs his team out of an inning or ten. His arm — always impressive — can’t make up for the circus routes he takes in the outfield. The smile becomes a grimace. It’s just a weird yo-yo. In his career, he’s had three seasons where he’s been healthily above average, four where he was basically a replacement player, and one (2012) where he was the worst everyday player in baseball. He obviously has decent upside, since he’s done it three times before, but at 29, The Artist Formerly Known As The Natural seems far removed from his upside-heavy days. It’ll be tough, at times, to forget the name Wil Myers in Kansas City, but this year, and this year alone, it’s no fait accompli that the Frenchman ends up at the bottom of this list at the end of the season. All he has to do is reverse most of the trends in his peripherals — ground-ball rate, reach rate, isolated slugging percentage, speed score, strikeout rate, and defensive metrics. Simple!
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Right field — maybe not as sexy as your father’s right field, but still fairly attractive.
#1 Marlins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Giancarlo Stanton 630 .280 .365 .591 .400 42.7 -1.3 6.2 6.5
Austin Kearns 70 .228 .331 .343 .302 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .275 .362 .567 .390 42.0 -1.4 6.0 6.5
The batting average could be a little generous for a guy that struck out more than 28% of the time last year, but Stanton just turned 23. He’s still pre-peak when it comes to most plate discipline peripherals, and he could be expected to improve his strikeout rate. Elite power can also turn outs into hits, and he certainly has elite power. Since he entered the league, his .282 isolated slugging percentage is second only to Jose Bautista over the same time frame. Elite power, good patience, and decent fielding — that makes you the best at your position. Even if the skinflint team you’re on can’t afford to provide you with a decent backup.
#2 Braves
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jason Heyward 630 .266 .350 .475 .355 20.4 0.9 11.5 4.9
Reed Johnson 35 .256 .304 .373 .295 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Jose Constanza 35 .270 .321 .344 .291 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .266 .346 .463 .349 19.2 0.9 11.6 5.0
Jason Heyward. He’s good! Really, really good. And… done. Obviously Heyward made some progress last season, and much of it was in the power department. A positive for Heyward is the fact that he hit fewer ground balls this season — fly balls are good for the power stroke. Maybe less positive is the fact that his ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio regressed closer to career norms as the season went on, but still, if you look at his season as a whole, he hit fewer ground balls and showed more power. Seems like he can do that again, especially once you consider his frame and swing. He probably won’t get platooned with Jose Constanza again, as crazy as that was, and while there would be a massive drop off in talent if he was hurt, a Constanza/Reed Johnson partnership could do a decent job of filling in for a while.
#3 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jose Bautista 490 .266 .393 .545 .396 31.5 -0.1 -3.1 4.1
Rajai Davis 105 .259 .308 .369 .295 -1.8 0.6 -0.3 0.1
Moises Sierra 105 .248 .305 .385 .299 -1.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .262 .367 .491 .366 28.3 0.2 -3.6 4.3
Given his age (32) and injury history, it’s probably good for the Blue Jays that Jose Bautista’s backups are slightly better than Heyward’s. And you could say that Rajai Davis is a better corner outfield defender than he’s shown. With Anthony Gose still in the system, there are a few different configurations that could either serve to fill in for an injured Bautista or keep him healthy with periodic rests. And it’s worth trying to keep that bat in the lineup — even in a down year that was ended prematurely with a wrist injury, Bautista showed his customary power and patience to the tune of park-adjusted offense that was 40% better than the league average. He’s still got some great years in him.
#4 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Josh Hamilton 595 .273 .340 .494 .351 19.6 0.7 1.8 3.7
Mark Trumbo 70 .261 .312 .476 .335 1.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.3
Kole Calhoun 35 .245 .311 .408 .315 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .270 .336 .488 .347 21.1 0.7 1.5 4.1
Josh Hamilton might not have the best approach at the plate. And one of his best skills — making contact on bad pitches outside the zone — ages more poorly than other skills. But he’s only 32 and he does offer value with his base running and defense that will help mitigate any negatives that come from a rising strikeout rate. A few nicks and cuts shouldn’t hurt the team too much, either. Mark Trumbo, with all his flaws, is pretty powerful for a backup. This group of outfielders is deep and has elite upside.
#5 Reds
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jay Bruce 630 .258 .341 .498 .354 18.3 -1.0 -0.4 3.3
Chris Heisey 35 .256 .313 .437 .324 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Xavier Paul 35 .261 .317 .414 .317 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .258 .339 .491 .351 18.4 -1.0 -0.4 3.4
Jay Bruce is 26. He’s only 26! His power is trending upwards, his patience has settled in at an above-average rate, and he’s not a terrible defender or baserunner, at least not at this point in his career. With a little bit of BABIP love and a slight defensive bounce-back, he could return to his three-plus win days. With a lot of BABIP love, he could have a career year. But of course, the prudent thing is to forecast him for negative defense, some hiccups on the basepaths, and enough patience and power to be comfortably above average. Behind him a platoon of Paul and Heisey could provide power, patience and defense, but just not all in one place at one time.
#6 Cardinals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Beltran 581 .268 .352 .463 .346 16.4 -0.8 -2.1 2.8
Matt Carpenter 35 .264 .354 .395 .328 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Oscar Taveras 70 .279 .332 .446 .331 1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.3
Allen Craig 14 .289 .346 .494 .359 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .269 .350 .459 .344 18.5 -0.9 -2.5 3.2
Because he is 36, age has to be the first thing that is discussed with Carlos Beltran. He has averaged over 600 plate appearances over his last two seasons, but that does feel like a coup after the two seasons he lost to knee injury. Now that he’s battling a toe thing in the spring, it’s a little easier to remember that at one point it was fair to wonder how much time he had left in a starting role. When he’s in there, he’ll still have power and patience and he won’t cost the team anywhere either. When he’s not, the team has good depth to make up for his absence. If it’s not Matt Carpenter — he might win the starting role at second base — it’s probably Matt Adams, who is projected for an above-average wOBA based mostly on his power. He would add to depth at the position by playing first base and pushes Allen Craig to the outfield, where he was a neutral defender with a great bat. Or the Cardinals call up Oscar Taveras, perhaps the best prospect in the minors. This is a deep team.
#7 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ben Zobrist 245 .260 .363 .442 .349 7.9 0.0 1.1 1.5
Wil Myers 350 .253 .322 .439 .328 5.7 -0.2 0.0 1.4
Sam Fuld 35 .241 .318 .343 .293 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1
Brandon Guyer 35 .257 .311 .407 .311 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 665 .255 .336 .433 .333 13.2 -0.2 1.4 3.1
It’s so… Ben Zobrist that Ben Zobrist is atop the depth chart in right field and is projected for the bulk of his plate appearances at other positions. Or maybe it’s Rays-ian. In any case, it’s not a surprise to see a deep chart at this position given the Rays platoon-heavy versatility-first philosophy. Zobrist is above-average in all facets of the game, but when super prospect Wil Myers is ready, he’ll probably move back to second base most days, unless he’s needed at shortstop. Myers should show power and patience in his debut, even if the contact rate is a question, but if he struggles, Brandon Guyer might even be able to give above-average production if he’s limited to facing lefties — provided his shoulder is fine after surgery last year. Hopefully the Rays won’t have to run their designated hitter out there in right field very often, or need defensive replacement Sam Fuld a ton.
#8 Dodgers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Andre Ethier 595 .270 .348 .437 .337 13.8 -1.1 -0.9 2.7
Jerry Hairston 70 .258 .329 .376 .311 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1
Alex Castellanos 35 .243 .310 .393 .306 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .267 .344 .429 .333 13.9 -1.2 -1.1 2.9
Andre Ethier doesn’t think he’s a platoon player — just a few more hits versus southpaws every season and people would be off his back, he said recently — and his manager agrees, saying that Ethier will be out there as an everyday player. And that he’d sit him occasionally against a tough left-hander. It’s not just a few singles that separate Ethier from being a platoon-neutral player, however. He walks less, strikes out more, and loses a fair amount of his power against lefties (.215 ISO vs RHP, .115 ISO vs LHP), and with power that’s more ‘above-average’ than ‘no-doubt,’ that’s significant. But even if he’s a punch-and-judy guy against 1/3 of the league, Ethier has power and patience and the ability to make contact against the other 2/3 of the league. He’s not a statue out in right field, either. It might be nice if a team as deep as the Dodgers didn’t have to go to a backup middle infielder or an untested rookie when their outfielder was out of the lineup, though.
#9 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Josh Reddick 525 .242 .304 .437 .316 2.1 -0.2 6.3 2.1
Chris Young 175 .229 .322 .402 .317 0.8 0.2 1.8 0.7
Total 700 .239 .308 .429 .317 2.9 -0.1 8.1 2.8
The Oakland depth chart was a frequent topic of conversation at the FanGraphs retreat, at least in circles where this correspondent was included. The team is known for its love of the platoon and belief in roster depth, and they have multiple options at each position. While the infield might be kicking the ball around during spring training, the outfield has four excellent defenders with decent bats. All things equal, you’ll probably want to start Josh Reddick for his power most days, since Chris Young’s defense is less important in right field. But Reddick may find himself at designated hitter some days. Or it might Yoenis Cespedes or even Coco Crisp at DH as they nurse a nick or cut. There is no consensus on which outfielder is the best defensive center fielder — if you think it’s Chris Young you won’t be alone — so this depth chart may need some reworking depending on what the team thinks of Coco Crisp’s glove. In any case, Oakland has good-but-not great outfielders, and great depth, and that’s how they ended up above the fold.
#10 Nationals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jayson Werth 630 .257 .353 .425 .337 11.5 0.6 -4.9 2.3
Bryce Harper 35 .269 .343 .470 .349 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.2
Roger Bernadina 35 .250 .322 .385 .309 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .257 .351 .425 .336 12.3 0.7 -4.6 2.5
The mountain man turns 34 this year, and he’s returning from a year marred by injury. Even if the wrist injury affects his power, he’s shown enough patience and defense that he should be close to a league-average player. He’s a high-percentage base stealer even into his thirties, and his double-digit walk rates have followed him into even the worst of seasons. It’s probably folly to believe in his recent improvement in swinging strike and strikeout rates — given his age — but in a full year, it would be a good idea to forecast him for scratch or better defense, good work on the basebaths, and elite patience. The power is an open question mark. When he’s out, and Bryce Harper is needed in left, it’ll be the Shark (Roger Bernandina) taking his iffy plate discipline and good corner-outfield defense to the field.
#11 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nick Markakis 630 .285 .356 .440 .344 12.5 -0.3 -4.7 2.3
Nate McLouth 70 .234 .324 .387 .312 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.1
Total 700 .280 .353 .435 .341 12.2 -0.1 -5.0 2.4
When you compare the production of the right fielders in Baltimore to their counterparts in Boston, it might be tempting to say that Boston’s are being under-rated. After all, Victorino has accrued six more career wins than Markakis, and in fewer plate appearances. But you have to remember that Victorino put up those wins as a center fielder, and his defensive value is lessened in right field. Once you put them on level playing fields, they’re much more comparable. Markakis doesn’t quite provide the same level of production when it comes to his athleticism — his fielding has eroded and he’s not quite the baserunner he used to be — but the Oriole can still make a lot of contact with above-average power and patience. And he’s not quite a negative in other facets of the game. Nate McLouth is a wild card at this point in the game, but as a two-week replacement, he should be able to field his position and run into a few powerful drives.
#12 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Torii Hunter 595 .279 .342 .433 .335 8.6 -0.6 0.6 2.3
Avisail Garcia 105 .252 .281 .373 .283 -2.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Total 700 .275 .333 .423 .328 5.7 -0.7 0.7 2.3
Yes, Torii Hunter had a .389 batting average on balls in play last year and that’s not likely to continue. But! Hunter has been hitting more and more ground balls and fewer and fewer fly balls and infield fly balls as he’s aged. These changes in his game are more conducive to better BABIPs, especially when they are paired with improvements in his line drive rate as they have been. These might all be conscious alterations to his game — after all, he’s not as fast or as powerful as he used to be, so ground balls make more sense. Now a full-time corner outfielder, his glove is likely to be an asset, and even if his speed has waned, he shouldn’t be a negative on the basepaths. He’s just around league average when it comes to walk and strikeout rates, and if you add it all up, you get a slightly better than league average right fielder. Now the Tigers just have to hope that the veteran won’t go down to injury — he’s been very resilient over his career — or that backup Avisail Garcia shows some improvement in his plate discipline. Otherwise the team will feel a little light on days where their new number two hitter is out of the lineup.
#13 Brewers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Norichika Aoki 630 .288 .349 .396 .326 5.5 -0.4 0.1 2.0
Caleb Gindl 70 .255 .316 .423 .322 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2
Total 700 .285 .346 .399 .326 5.9 -0.4 0.2 2.2
Even if the 31-year-old Norichika Aoki’s work was a surprise to some, it seems likely he can provide a reasonable facsimilie of his 2012 work. If you focus on his defense in the corners — Carlos Gomez was recently extended and looks like the everyday center fielder these days — he was an asset. The former center fielder should have been good with the glove in right field. He isn’t the most powerful bat — the league-average isolated slugging percentage might have been the most surprising aspect of his production last season. It might be best to forecast some regression there. The contact rate and the baserunning were both strengths of his game in Japan that seem likely to translate well (and did). So if you add a little value with the glove and take a little away with the bat, and leave the contact rate and speed, you still end up with the fact that Aoki is one of the league’s best bargains, and an average major leaguer. Outfield prospect Kris Davis may slug his way on to the roster this spring, but it’s more likely the team will use the stout non-prospect Caleb Gindl to fill in during those rare stints during which Aoki needs a breather. The little man has some pop.
#14 Giants
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Hunter Pence 630 .266 .329 .426 .326 9.0 -0.3 -3.3 2.1
Gregor Blanco 35 .232 .325 .331 .294 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1
Andres Torres 35 .238 .325 .373 .307 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .263 .329 .419 .324 8.5 -0.1 -2.8 2.2
This ranking might have angered some, so including the park factors and pushing it up to #14 from #20 will hopefully calm the reflux. Hunter Pence could certainly push the Giants up a few spots higher on sheer willpower and weirdness alone, but if you look closely at his peripherals, the news isn’t good. He just put up the worst strikeout rate of his career, built on the second-worst swinging strike rate of his career. Both numbers are in the midst of a three-year decline. He never had much patience, and now his power is trending downwards. His wheels are fading, and his defense — which was always iffy when it came to routes — is suffering. The last two years he’s been a negative in the field, and last season his bat was only two percent above league average. He’s never been a line drive hitter, or never once hit them at a rate that was league-average or better, and that usually manifests itself in a bad batting average that has been propped up to respectable by a streaky month or two. Last year that streak never came, and with the rest of his decline in mind, it makes sense to wonder if Pence is a great asset in right field any more. If he isn’t, Blanco should give enough patience and defense to hold the entire unit steady, but he doesn’t have the upside you might want coming up behind the Human Praying Mantis.
#15 Padres
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Will Venable 420 .246 .320 .400 .311 2.4 1.3 0.6 1.4
Chris Denorfia 245 .267 .327 .404 .317 2.7 -0.2 -0.8 0.8
Mark Kotsay 35 .255 .318 .356 .295 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .254 .322 .399 .312 4.9 1.0 -0.4 2.2
Will Venable is 30 years old. Is that surprising? He’s spent many years on sleeper lists, but it looks like he won’t ever wake up to his full potential at this point. The tools that made him so alluring are a little duller these days, and though he has gradually whittled away at his strikeout rate, he never ironed out the platoon problems, and so his upside has been limited. Some of his nascent patience never really came to fruition either, and by now his defense is starting to fade. He’ll still be at least two thirds of an above-average player, most likely, and now that the fences in right field will be a little closer, the lefty might even have a career year. The breakable Denorfia offers some security blanket, at least against lefties, but Mark Kotsay wishes he was thirty.
#16 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nelson Cruz 595 .265 .327 .482 .345 9.5 -0.8 -2.2 2.1
Julio Borbon 70 .272 .318 .370 .300 -1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Leonys Martin 35 .274 .334 .432 .331 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .266 .326 .469 .340 8.3 -0.8 -2.1 2.2
The first comment on this piece when it originally pubbed was a reaction to this ranking and the Rockies’ ranking. Well, kudos. The Rangers dropped to #16 from #8 once the park was factored in. Nelson Cruz is no longer as athletic as he used to be, as judged by his value added by fielding and baserunning metrics. He still steals some bases, but as you can see from his Bill James four-component speed score, his wheels are no longer the asset they used to be. He never took a lot of walks really, and he strikes out a little much. But he’s got enough power to be above average when you take the whole package into account, and he’s got decent backups on a team with good depth. That’s actually fairly important — last season was the first in the 33-year-old’s seven-year career in which he crossed the 600-plate-appearance threshhold. It might be surprising to see him come in below the likes of Michael Cuddyer and the right fielders in Colorado, but his relative frailty has to factor in on some level. His best backup, Leonys Martin, will probably see the bulk of his time in center field, leaving the flawed Julio Borbon as the backup plan.
#17 Pirates
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Travis Snider 455 .264 .328 .434 .329 6.5 -0.4 -0.8 1.6
Garrett Jones 105 .258 .321 .458 .332 1.8 -0.2 -0.5 0.4
Josh Harrison 105 .262 .303 .380 .298 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Jose Tabata 35 .268 .337 .381 .317 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .263 .324 .427 .324 7.4 -0.7 -1.5 2.2
After a challenge trade saw Snider land in Pittsburgh, he began the tough, post-hype task of attempting to secure a major league starting role. He did manage to improve his plate discipline in 2012, but the power he showed in 2011 has not returned to the big leagues with him since. He still looks like a monster with many-tooled upside, as his highlight-real catches and tape-measure power suggest. And at 25, he could put in a peak year performance this year. But he still strikes out too much, and even the projections as they currently stand might seem optimistic once the season is over. Garrett Jones is a bit old, and also a lefty, so it’s not a natural platoon, but they may pick the veteran over the rook from time to time. There’s only so many whiffs a manager can take before he changes the lineup, if only to make a temporary point. Jose Tabata also looks resurgent in camp and could push the young southpaw.
#18 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Shane Victorino 525 .270 .339 .422 .330 3.3 1.9 0.5 1.8
Daniel Nava 175 .249 .340 .384 .319 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.3
Total 700 .265 .339 .413 .327 2.8 1.7 0.4 2.2
The Red Sox drop from #10 to #18 after the park factors were put back in. Shane Victorino is 33 years old, too, and has less power than Cruz, but he has the benefit of falling from a more well-rounded peak. He’s still good on the basepaths, and he can still play center. Do you believe his platoon splits are a problem? Maybe not. Even if he’s not a natural platoon partner, Jonny Gomes can mash taters off lefties in his sleep. The Boston outfield will probably be a work in progress all year, though. If the team isn’t competitive in the middle of the summer, they’ll likely jettison their current center fielder for longer-term assets, and either move Victorino to center field or audition prospect Jackie Bradley, Jr in center. Ryan Kalish just had another shoulder surgery and his career could be in trouble, or he could come back healthy and provide at least platoon-worthy production at one of the corners. In any case, with all of these possible moving parts, it’s nice to have an outfielder that can hit in a couple spots in the lineup and play all three outfield positions, even if he’s not quite the high-flyer he used to be.
#19 Rockies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Cuddyer 490 .280 .342 .487 .354 7.7 0.0 -5.7 1.4
Tyler Colvin 175 .260 .304 .483 .334 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.4
Eric Young 35 .267 .343 .380 .318 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .274 .333 .481 .347 7.3 0.3 -5.8 1.8
Every other year or so, Cuddyer lays a stinker. He’s been injured (2012), and bad (2010) and both (200
. Sometimes his defense undoes much of the good his bat has in it, like it did in 2009 when he hit 32 home runs and still didn’t crack three wins of value. But now relegated mostly to outfield and first base, his defense has been more ‘meh’ than ‘yuck’ the last couple of years, and that allows his average patience and above-average power to push the full package past the average right fielders. Behind him, Tyler Colvin is all power (against-right handers) and not much else, but along with the speed-first Eric Young, he provides the team with a decent backup plan. Colvin may even end up playing most of the year if the team finally trades their veteran, in which case you’d downgrade the positional ranking slightly, but not by much. It’s still not this position that’s going to cause the Rockies heartburn this season, even if the extreme park factors in Colorado dropped this ranking from #7 to #19.#20 Phillies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Delmon Young 385 .278 .314 .442 .323 2.4 -0.6 -2.4 0.8
Domonic Brown 140 .266 .338 .447 .336 2.4 -0.2 -0.7 0.5
Laynce Nix 105 .241 .304 .421 .311 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.2
John Mayberry 70 .250 .309 .422 .316 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .267 .317 .438 .323 4.5 -1.0 -2.9 1.7
At 27, Delmon Young is ostensibly headed into his prime years, but you’d be forgiven for not noticing. His power — his greatest asset — already looks like it’s in a decline from a peak that came three years ago, and he’s a minus in every other facet of the game. His defense has never been a positive in a full season, and his baserunning has been a negative more often than it’s been a positive. Young’s walk rate since 2010 is only better than three qualified batters over that time frame, and none of those three players have regular jobs any more. One is Yuniesky Betancourt. His character doesn’t seem like it makes up for any of his on-field failings, either. At least the Phillies have other options. Domonic Brown is projected for another 400+ plate appearances in left field, but with the varied cast of characters behind the two players, it makes sense that there will be some mixing and matching in Philadelphia. Hopefully for their fans, that mixing and matching will gradually phase out the rotund one.
#21 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alex Rios 665 .271 .313 .437 .321 -0.7 0.9 -0.1 1.6
Jordan Danks 35 .235 .314 .374 .304 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .270 .313 .434 .320 -1.2 0.9 0.1 1.6
Alex Rios has had a roller coaster of a career. Both the hero and the goat and sometimes for the same team, he’s now coming off a strong showing in the World Baseball Classic if that means anything to you. It’s hard to put stock in these things, even if he put up a career-best 125 wRC+ last year, because all you have to do is remember back to 2011, when his offense was a career-worst 41% worse than league average. And it’s not easy to see why Rios goes in and out of the tank — some years he has good power, some years he has little power. It might all be less worrisome if he had some patience to fall back on (he doesn’t), or if he was a positive in the field no matter what was going on at the plate (he isn’t). He should be good — in which case he could outproduce this ranking fairly easily — but if he isn’t, Jordan Danks and his strikeouts won’t be enough to make the Chicago faithful forget. There’s a lot of risk here.
#22 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Chris Parmelee 525 .255 .332 .407 .321 3.0 -0.9 -0.2 1.4
Darin Mastroianni 140 .244 .314 .326 .285 -3.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
Ryan Doumit 35 .260 .319 .414 .314 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .253 .328 .391 .314 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.6
Appropriately, the Twins will be handing their right field job to a player with less than 400 plate appearances in the big leagues. That isn’t to say that Parmelee doesn’t have some upside. He could walk at a double-digit rate, and he should have above-average power. But the strikeout rate is a question, and on defense he looks like the first baseman in right field that he is. If his minor league strikeout rates are to be believed, and not the contact rate he put up in 288 plate appearances last year, Parmelee the manatee could swim up the charts a few spots. But if the strikeout rate is closer to last year’s rate, and the power is only about league average, he won’t add value with his glove or his feet, and he could begin losing playing time to someone like Darin Mastroianni or Joe Benson, especially if center field goes to someone like Aaron Hicks. The personnel is here to improve upon this ranking, but it’s probably not going to do so this season.
#23 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Fernando Martinez 420 .250 .307 .430 .318 1.7 -0.6 2.4 1.4
J.D. Martinez 175 .259 .321 .395 .313 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 0.3
Jimmy Paredes 70 .253 .287 .372 .285 -1.6 0.0 -0.3 0.0
Brandon Barnes 35 .228 .282 .361 .279 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .252 .307 .412 .312 -0.9 -0.9 1.4 1.6
Fernando Martinez is 24 years old, has been around for ever, and has never once managed to put up a combined 600 plate appearances in one season. If he was a better player, we might lament that poor run of health. But he strikes out too much, never added patience, and hasn’t capitalized on his former promise. While he keeps the seat warm for better prospects like George Springer, the other Martinez will show some power and be scratch on the basepaths and in the field. It’s not the kind of thing that will net him a long-term starting job in the bigs, and though J.D. Martinez will be needed in left field, there is a way to construct this roster that puts Fernando on the bench from the get-go without bringing prospects up too early. That still might not improve the Astros’ left field situation much, considering the flaws the other Martinez owns.
#24 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Drew Stubbs 525 .226 .302 .355 .290 -8.6 2.5 0.5 0.7
Nick Swisher 175 .255 .356 .442 .347 5.1 -0.4 0.3 0.9
Total 700 .233 .315 .376 .304 -3.5 2.2 0.8 1.6
Moving Drew Stubbs to right field saps much of his value, as he’s a good defensive center fielder. But is he a Michael Bourn? Probably not. And so Stubbs moves to right field, where his strikeouts conspire with his defense to rob him of most of his value. A little bounce back in power and patience — he showed more of both in the past than he did this eason — would improve his ranking some, but probably not much. And asking him to up his power when he’s moving from Cincinnati to Cleveland might be a little much, too. Nick Swisher is a good player and we know all about him, but if you move him to the outfield full time, you’d need a replacement at first base, and none of the characters the Indians have tried there recently have proven they belong.
#25 Diamondbacks
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Cody Ross 560 .259 .325 .440 .329 2.5 -0.5 -2.0 1.3
Gerardo Parra 105 .277 .339 .407 .320 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2
A.J. Pollock 35 .269 .317 .386 .308 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .262 .327 .432 .326 1.8 -0.5 -2.1 1.6
Cody Ross is nearly 50% better (with respect to the league) against lefties than he is against righties! That screams platoon player. There’s another way to put it, though. Against righties, Cody Ross is nearly average, as his weighted runs created are only eight percent worse than league average. He’s crazlebeans against lefties, where his offense is 41% better than the league, and his isolated slugging percentage (.290) would rank with the elite sluggers in the game. So you don’t have to strictly platoon him, particularly when the guy behind him doesn’t have much better than league average offensive upside anyway. So Ross should start most days, and Parra will be somewhat of a platoon partner and a little bit more of a defensive replacement and injury caddy. Adjusting for the park slid this group down from #17 to their current ranking.
#26 Cubs
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nate Schierholtz 455 .261 .324 .423 .320 0.5 -0.3 0.0 1.1
Scott Hairston 210 .253 .308 .456 .327 1.4 -0.3 -1.4 0.5
Brent Lillibridge 35 .220 .283 .336 .273 -1.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Total 700 .257 .317 .428 .320 0.6 -0.5 -1.5 1.5
Despite the platoon splits that Nate Schierholtz has put up to date (minor), this looks like it will be almost a straight platoon. It’s not so much that Schierholtz is bad against lefties (10% worse than league average), it’s that Scott Hairston loves southpaws. He’s almost a Cody-Ross-lite, with an .224 ISO against lefties. The Chin adds value on defense and the basepaths, too, but just can’t hack it against righties enough (86 wRC+) to be a full-time answer at the position. There are plenty of outfielders coming up in the system, but none of the corner outfielders are ready just yet. That means Theo and company will cobble together a right fielder out of their scraps. It might not be as ugly as some expect, but you shouldn’t call it pretty.
#27 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Saunders 490 .233 .307 .384 .302 -1.5 0.7 -1.8 0.9
Casper Wells 175 .223 .305 .395 .305 -0.1 -0.2 0.9 0.5
Raul Ibanez 35 .241 .304 .400 .301 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0
Total 700 .231 .306 .388 .303 -1.7 0.4 -1.2 1.4
If Saunders seems too decent to have here, at this point in the list, it’s partially because he’s been getting credit for some time in center field in the past. It’s also partially because of the projection systems — all of them see Saunders taking a step back from some of his career highs last season, particularly in the power department. But Saunders has shown more patience in the past, and could walk more in the future. He also should show positive defensive numbers in the corner outfield, as long as the center fielder stays healthy. And the 26-year-old doesn’t necessarily need to step back, power-wise, especially in a year where the fences are moving in. Saunders could easily move the Mariners up in the rankings, even with Raul Ibanez and Casper Wells dragging the team down. He was, after all, the MVP of pool D in the WBC.
#28 Mets
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mike Baxter 490 .249 .331 .381 .310 0.2 -0.6 -0.1 1.1
Andrew Brown 175 .231 .302 .390 .298 -1.7 -0.4 -0.6 0.1
Total 665 .244 .323 .383 .307 -1.5 -0.9 -0.7 1.2
This probably will get ugly. The idea is the same as it is in Chicago — pick up two platoon bats and make it work — but the players involved are that much less established. Mike Baxter is patient. He can take a walk. It’s unclear if he has other skills to bring to the table. Against righties at least, he has representative power, and his defense and baserunning look like they can be scratch. But he’s probably not a great everyday player. Andrew Brown was a waiver wire scrap heap pickup that was picked up for his platoon splits against lefties. Some of those splits came in really nice offensive parks. He hasn’t really shown anything in the bigs, even against lefties. This probably will get ugly.
#29 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ichiro Suzuki 560 .286 .318 .386 .301 -7.7 1.6 1.5 0.8
Brennan Boesch 105 .257 .313 .413 .313 -0.5 0.0 -1.1 0.1
Juan Rivera 35 .254 .310 .403 .307 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .280 .317 .391 .303 -8.5 1.5 0.3 1.0
It sounds like Ichiro will be needed in left field some in the early going, since the home ground in that part of the park is bigger and Brennan Boesch is not a good defender. But once Teixeira returns, it won’t be long until Curtis Granderson is back in the fold, and by then it should be Ichiro full time in right field. We know that Ichiro is old, but this ranking feels a little light. He’s still an asset defensively on the corners, he still adds value on the basepaths, and he can still make contact with the best of them. If his new home stadium and division help arrest the decline in his power stats — and his short time as a Yankee last season seemed to suggest it could — Ichiro could easily outpace this projection. Even at 39 years old. Behind him, Boesch could benefit from a short porch in right and a fresh start, and is a decent pickup that could help push this ranking north despite his plate discipline and defensive issues.
#30 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jeff Francoeur 630 .257 .310 .410 .307 -4.4 -1.3 -4.3 0.4
Lorenzo Cain 70 .265 .321 .398 .314 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2
David Lough 35 .262 .304 .402 .306 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 735 .258 .310 .408 .308 -4.8 -1.1 -4.0 0.7
Frenchy arrives, and he rakes. Perhaps the pitchers don’t know how he’ll swing at everything, or maybe he is just driven by the need to impress new coworkers. We can’t know these things. But at some point in every honeymoon, Frenchy reverts. He starts reaching, he stops walking, and he runs his team out of an inning or ten. His arm — always impressive — can’t make up for the circus routes he takes in the outfield. The smile becomes a grimace. It’s just a weird yo-yo. In his career, he’s had three seasons where he’s been healthily above average, four where he was basically a replacement player, and one (2012) where he was the worst everyday player in baseball. He obviously has decent upside, since he’s done it three times before, but at 29, The Artist Formerly Known As The Natural seems far removed from his upside-heavy days. It’ll be tough, at times, to forget the name Wil Myers in Kansas City, but this year, and this year alone, it’s no fait accompli that the Frenchman ends up at the bottom of this list at the end of the season. All he has to do is reverse most of the trends in his peripherals — ground-ball rate, reach rate, isolated slugging percentage, speed score, strikeout rate, and defensive metrics. Simple!
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2013 Positional Power Rankings: Left Field.
The importance of the left field position has been on the rise in recent years. In 2012, left fielders accounted for more than 109 WAR, which is the highest total since 2004 when some guy named Barry Bonds produced almost 12 WAR. But the contributions last season were typically with the bat. The prototypical big bat/weak glove left fielder seems to hold true in 2012 as the -16.1 fielding rating for left fielders lags considerably behind center and right at 36.3 and 0.3, respectively (even in a year when Alfonso Soriano comes in at 11.8!). While left field doesn’t typically feature players quite as dynamic as those often found in center, as you’ll see below, there are definitely some of the league’s better hitters who occupy the “seven”.
To steal a line from the contemplative Bradley Woodrum, “(T)he danger of ordinal rankings is that we intrinsically assume the distance between each point is the same or close to the same,” which is an excellent point. Some rankings have a good deal of separation while others are tightly packed with very subtle (and perhaps tenuous) advantages. The power rankings aren’t long term, they are for 2013.
#1 Brewers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Braun 665 .301 .374 .539 .387 38.3 1.6 1.1 5.9
Logan Schafer 35 .262 .315 .390 .307 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .299 .371 .531 .383 38.1 1.5 1.1 5.9
Since this is left field specific, Ryan Braun and the Brewers emerge as the #1, if only because we expect Mike Trout to see some time in center. But that’s not to suggest Braun doesn’t belong in the conversation among the game’s elite hitters. For six consecutive seasons, Braun has demonstrated the rare combination of commodities including exceptional power and speed with great plate discipline. He followed up his 7.6 WAR MVP 2011 season with 7.9 WAR 2012. Entering his age-29 season, the projection sees a slight step back in the power department, reflecting a slugging percentage and wOBA just shy of his career averages. Braun is unquestionably an elite talent and despite some of the tangential tomfoolery that has rubbed a little shine off his star, there’s no reason to expect he won’t continue to perform like one in 2013.
#2 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mike Trout 490 .290 .370 .503 .373 24.8 3.6 6.2 4.8
Mark Trumbo 105 .261 .312 .476 .335 2.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.4
Vernon Wells 70 .248 .297 .439 .316 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.2
Kole Calhoun 35 .245 .311 .408 .315 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .279 .351 .487 .358 27.5 3.5 5.9 5.5
The statistical community consensus AL MVP and real-world runner up, Mike Trout is projected here to produce at an elite level, but not quite otherworldly as he was in 2012. Before you grab your pitchforks, be sure to understand that the 490 plate appearances assumes that Trout will be also featured in center field a good deal. Just 21-years-old, it would probably be foolish to project a repeat of one of the greatest offensive performances in recent history, but the projection above only sees moderate regression across the board.
Mark Trumbo put together a solid 2012 campaign but the projection above accurately represents some mash up of his first half and second half where he was an All-Star in the former and fell apart in the latter. For being rather heavy-footed, he was surprisingly not terrible in the outfield last season, and although his time will be mostly spent at DH, it’s likely he sees some time in left where he’ll provide a decent amount of value to the Angels. Vernon Wells might see a handful of innings in left field if only because it’s difficult to pay him $21 million dollars to look pretty.
#3 Cardinals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Holliday 630 .286 .373 .484 .368 28.8 -0.7 -1.5 4.3
Matt Carpenter 35 .264 .354 .397 .330 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Allen Craig 35 .289 .347 .491 .358 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2
Total 700 .285 .371 .480 .366 30.7 -0.8 -1.7 4.6
One of the most consistently productive left fielders in baseball for the last six seasons, Matt Holliday just keeps plugging along, producing 36 WAR since 2007. He just turned 33 so what we know about aging curves suggests his best years are probably in the rear view mirror, and the projection reflects that, as the .368 wOBA would be the lowest since his debut in 2004. He no longer runs and his defense has been in pretty sharp decline over the past three seasons. Even so, Holliday will pack enough in his bat to give the Cardinals great production in left field, likely weighing in with another 25 home runs and 100 RBI.
Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig could fill in if disaster strikes and it actually might be Craig that would take over if they needed a longer term replacement with Matt Adams an option at first base. Carpenter can fill in at first and third and might even open the season as the starting second baseman.
#4 Braves
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Upton 630 .275 .361 .473 .357 21.7 0.2 1.9 4.0
Reed Johnson 35 .256 .304 .373 .295 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Jose Constanza 35 .270 .321 .344 .291 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .274 .356 .461 .351 20.5 0.3 1.9 4.0
The better half of the Upton family attack in Atlanta, Justin Upton might not ever reproduce his fantastic 6.4 WAR season from 2011, but the projection likes him quite a bit better than his 2012 2.5 WAR season. He’s still young, so there’s warranted optimism that he can regain a power stroke that should produce a goodly number home runs to go with 20 steals while playing plus defense. A change of scenery and opportunity to play with his brother B.J. could certainly help in the mental category and he’s young enough to prove that he can still be a superstar.
There’s not much depth behind him in Reed Johnson and Jose Costanza. Although they could probably fill in aptly in a platoon role, there’s no doubt the Braves brass would want it to be brief.
#5 Rockies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Gonzalez 630 .301 .369 .536 .381 23.5 1.4 -2.5 3.8
Eric Young 70 .267 .343 .380 .318 -0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .298 .367 .521 .374 22.6 1.8 -2.3 4.0
Carlos Gonzalez has seen his WAR go from 6.2 to 3.9 to 2.7 over the last three seasons and according to UZR, his defense has a lot to do with it. If he could convince the league to play the entirety of their schedule at home, he’d be up with the Braun’s and Trouts of the world as his home split was .368/.437/.609 versus .234/.301/.405 on the road. He started developing hamstring issues late in the season, eventually getting shut down on the September 23. He may have been playing hurt for weeks as his slash line from mid August to the end of the season was just .215/.284/.344.
He enters 2013 in his age-27 season, and the projection is rather bullish on his ability to get back to an elite level at 4.8 WAR, which would represent his second best season after his 2010 breakout. He’s probably a better defender than -2.5, but his range might also be wrapped up in his health, so his legs are going to have to literally and figuratively carry him if he’s going to flirt with 5 wins. Should the wheels fall off, super-utility guy Eric Young could fill in with decent defense and little bat, so if the Rockies plan to return to the #5 slot here next season, they’ll need a healthy CarGo to do it.
#6 Nationals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Bryce Harper 595 .268 .343 .471 .350 16.8 0.0 4.7 3.7
Tyler Moore 70 .237 .288 .447 .315 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
Steve Lombardozzi 35 .265 .316 .367 .299 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .265 .336 .463 .344 16.4 -0.1 4.5 3.8
Harper is also projected for another handful of plate appearances in right field, so his total WAR production is expected to a skosh higher than 3.7. After producing 4.9 WAR as a 19-year-old, the projection sees roughly a repeat of 2012 with slight regression in his slugging and a step back in the overall value of his defense. It’s hard to keep a level head when thinking about Harper, whose season was among the very best for 19 year old rookies in history. Almost every projection system has Harper hitting 20 home runs and stealing more than 15 bases — a feat accomplished five times by 20 year olds in history, including the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Vada Pinson, Orlando Cepeda, and the kid up there at #2. While he might have monstrous seasons in his future, the projection tries to temper expectations, but I’d expect to see the Nationals jump up a couple notches next year in these rankings.
Tyler Moore is probably the first backup to Harper and he should provide a nice source of power to the Nationals, although he doesn’t project as a particularly strong defender.
#7 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alex Gordon 630 .273 .358 .440 .347 15.7 0.0 4.3 3.6
Lorenzo Cain 35 .265 .321 .398 .314 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
David Lough 35 .262 .304 .402 .306 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .272 .354 .436 .343 15.4 0.1 4.5 3.8
Technically tied with the Nats, the Royals feature Alex Gordon in left, and the projection thinks his 2012 regression was for real. After a career year in 2011, Gordon saw his power and speed drop off significantly, although his fantastic defense kept him from falling too far. He’s a good defender, but probably still due for more defensive regression, and a .347 wOBA looks a lot more like the Alex Gordon of 2008 than the one we’ve seen over the last couple of seasons.
Lorenzo Cain could back up if need be, pushing Jarrod Dyson into center field, which is probably the short term solution should the need arise, with David Lough a possibility should he make the squad out of camp due to his torrid Spring.
#8 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Josh Willingham 630 .249 .355 .470 .355 20.8 -0.7 -5.6 3.0
Darin Mastroianni 70 .244 .314 .326 .285 -1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Total 700 .249 .351 .455 .348 19.1 -0.3 -5.4 3.1
Bucking the trend of aging curves, Josh Willingham put up his most valuable season at the age of 33 with a .260/.366/.524 line, belting 35 home runs and driving in 110 runs, amassing 3.9 WAR. The projection is rather dubious about 2013, although a 3 win season from Josh Willingham isn’t necessarily something to scoff at. Ignoring the fact that Willingham may not finish the season as a Twin, he has nonetheless provided them very good value on the contract they gave him two seasons ago. If the Twins didn’t have such tremendous depth at DH (yeah, that’s sarcasm), he’d be best suited not trying to catch fly balls, but with the current roster construction, they don’t have much of a choice but trot him out on the field as long as he lasts.
If Darin Mastroianni doesn’t win the center field job outright, he’ll rove enough to see some time in left, and given Willingham’s history of health, he should fall into a number of at bats. Against the odds, 2012 was really the most healthy season from Willingham in the past five years. The list of his ailments prior to last year are a physical therapist dream: Shoulder, thigh, neck, ankle, foot, elbow, knee, groin. You name the body part and Willingham has probably complained about it. 630 plate appearances is probably optimistic.
#9 Padres
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Quentin 525 .252 .348 .465 .351 20.0 -0.9 -5.5 2.7
Mark Kotsay 105 .255 .318 .356 .295 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 0.1
Kyle Blanks 70 .234 .317 .414 .317 0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.2
Total 700 .251 .340 .443 .339 19.9 -1.2 -6.5 2.9
A nose in front of the Twinks, the Padres will squeeze as much value out of the injury prone Carlos Quentin in left field. 525 plate appearances might be optimistic though. He’s averaged just over 400 PA’s over the last four seasons and he’s already been complaining about his knee in Spring Training. If he did manage 500+ PA’s, he’s certainly a productive power hitter but his defense can be a circus at times, and -5.5 might also be a bit kind.
If Quentin misses time, a mix of Jesus Guzman, Mark Kotsay, and maybe Kyle Blanks could ostensibly fill in, with Kotsay potentially being the main beneficiary. None of the three add much value in short-term roles if only to be more palatable defensively to Quentin.
#10 Pirates
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Starling Marte 560 .270 .319 .432 .322 4.9 0.1 4.8 2.4
Jose Tabata 140 .268 .337 .381 .317 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4
Total 700 .270 .322 .422 .321 5.5 0.0 4.9 2.7
Marte might be just 24 with not much in the way of major league experience, but he’s the presumptive starter in left field for the Pirates. If Marte isn’t a five tool talent, he’s at least 4.5 with plus speed and enough pop in his bat for double digit home runs. He’s a very good defender and he’s coming off a big Dominican Winter League performance, but given his youth and inexperience, it’s a little difficult to project him. The projection above actually sees improvement from Marte in batting average and on base percentage and thinks he can replicate his slugging percentage. If he manages to put together more than the 560 plate appearances reflected above, he could push 3 wins but there’s the real possibility that Jose Tabata spells him occasionally in a roving fourth outfielder role.
Between Marte and McCutchen, the Pirates have to be pretty pleased with two thirds of their outfield for the foreseeable future, and if Tabata can realize his potential and grab the starting role in right, the Bucs could be set for years in the outfield.
#11 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yoenis Cespedes 455 .277 .344 .465 .348 13.4 -0.3 -5.1 1.9
Seth Smith 140 .245 .330 .419 .323 1.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.4
Chris Young 105 .229 .322 .402 .317 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.4
Total 700 .264 .338 .447 .338 15.2 -0.3 -4.6 2.7
The Athletics will look to squeeze 2.7 WAR out of left field with some combination of Cespedes, Smith, and Young. Cespedes wasn’t particularly helpful on defense with a UZR of -9.6, hurting his overall WAR despite a highly successful offensive season. In his rookie campaign, Cespedes hit .292/.356/.505 with 23 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 129 games. He’s a free swinger who makes mediocre contact on balls outside of the zone and the projection seems to think he’ll take a step back on BABIP with a concomitant dip in his batting average while maintaining a respectable on base percentage.
Smith will play somewhere when a right hander is on the hill, which is obviously frequent. Some of that time will no doubt be in left field and over 440 plate appearances in 2012, Smith managed 1.4 WAR. And since the Athletics once again stockpiled outfielders, it’s rather unknown when and where Chris Young might play, but if the A’s want to start protecting Cespedes to a greater degree and/or value defense in left, it’s possible Young could fall into a good deal of time in left field. The projection above isn’t terribly bullish, but even in a disappointing and injury prone season, Young produced 2.8 WAR over just 363 plate appearances.
#12 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
David Murphy 630 .278 .349 .436 .339 6.8 -0.3 3.4 2.5
Leonys Martin 70 .274 .334 .432 .331 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .278 .348 .436 .338 7.1 -0.5 3.4 2.7
The perennial fourth outfielder, David Murphy was finally handed a starting role and he turned in his finest season at .304/.380/.479 with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases, amassing 4.0 WAR. The projection suggests a little regression and perhaps realism about what kind of a hitter David Murphy is at a true-talent level, which reflects about a rough combination of his 2011 and 2012 seasons. If Leonys Martin doesn’t win the center field job outright, there’s a possibility he roams around the outfield to spell the regulars and pick up a good number of games in left, but that is a battle which remains to sort itself out.
There’s also the possibility that the team wants to experiment with Mike Olt in left field when Texas faces left handers since Murphy has struggled versus lefties over his career (though he improved markedly in 75 at bats in 2012). He might not be flashy, but Murphy gives the Rangers a lot of value for the money, signed to a deal paying him about $5.7 million for 2013. If he can produce what the projection forecasts, he’ll be a bargain.
#13 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Joyce 525 .248 .345 .439 .337 11.9 -0.3 -0.6 2.4
Sam Fuld 105 .241 .318 .343 .293 -1.3 0.0 0.8 0.2
Kelly Johnson 70 .226 .313 .376 .303 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .245 .338 .418 .327 10.3 -0.3 0.0 2.7
The Rays check in with Matt Joyce, who stumbled in 2012 after his impressive 3.8 win season of 2011. The projection thinks he can do more though, with improvements across the board both offensively and defensively. It seems like Joyce has been around for a while but he enters 2013 at just 28, if he could manage to figure out how to be at least passable versus left handed pitching, he has the potential to put up good power numbers. Serial backup Sam Fuld will spell him occasionally and the role of Kelly Johnson is likely to be ever-evolving but for the sake of Rays fans, let’s hope they don’t wind up relying on him for a corner outfield assignment.
#14 Reds
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Ludwick 630 .256 .328 .455 .337 9.6 -0.9 -2.7 2.1
Chris Heisey 70 .256 .313 .437 .324 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .256 .327 .454 .335 9.9 -0.8 -2.7 2.3
Ludwick returns to the Reds to reprise his role as lefty masher. He did hit .275/.346/.531 overall but where his wOBA versus right handed pitchers was .364, he managed .397 against southpaws. He might not get back to his 37 home run season in 2008, but last year, Ludwick hit 26 home runs while cutting his strikeouts marginally. His defense won’t win any hardware, though the projection suggests he’s capable of better than his -4.7 rating from 2012. Ludwick turns 35 in July, so it’s unknown if he’ll give the Reds market value on his two-year $15 million dollar contact. He was healthy for most of 2012 but he did spend at least one stint on the disabled list each of the previous three seasons. Given his age, the Reds might keep the training team on their toes.
Chris Heisey saw his ISO drop from .233 to .135 between 2011 and 2012 and the re-signing of Ludwick coupled with the Shin Soo-Choo pickup pushes him to backing up all three outfield slots. He’s a decent fielder with intriguing power, and gives the Reds a good bat off the bench and/or a late-inning defensive replacement for Ludwick.
#15 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brett Gardner 385 .260 .356 .367 .322 1.2 2.5 7.3 2.1
Ben Francisco 105 .240 .311 .376 .302 -1.4 -0.1 -0.8 0.0
Juan Rivera 105 .254 .310 .403 .307 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.1
Ichiro Suzuki 70 .286 .318 .386 .302 -0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1
Brennan Boesch 35 .257 .313 .413 .313 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.0
Total 700 .259 .336 .379 .315 -2.3 2.3 6.0 2.3
Brett Gardner will play center in Curtis Granderson’s stead until his return. When that time comes is entirely up to the healing speed of Granderson’s forearm, but when he’s back, Gardner will likely shift to left field. The projection puts Gardner at about 55% in left field, and providing very good value there, in large part due to excellent defense.
The remainder of left field is likely some amalgam of Ben Francisco, Juan Rivera, Ichiro, and newly acquired for the pile, Brennan Boesch. Rivera might be needed more at first base until that wreck is cleared so perhaps Ben Francisco and Ichiro/Boesch form some kind of platoon for the first couple of months. Or at least until they go out and get somebody new. Stay tuned.
#16 Phillies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Domonic Brown 420 .266 .338 .447 .336 7.2 -0.6 -2.0 1.5
Laynce Nix 105 .241 .304 .424 .313 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.3
Darin Ruf 105 .258 .324 .426 .323 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.3
John Mayberry 70 .250 .309 .422 .316 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .259 .328 .438 .329 7.7 -0.9 -2.0 2.2
Domonic Brown is the presumptive starter headed into 2013 after years of top prospect status. Brown has little left to prove after hitting .296/.373/.461 over seven seasons in the minor leagues but yet so much to prove at the major league level. Still just 25-years-old, Brown has good power and speed and has demonstrated good command of the strike zone. He’s yet to perform well on the big stage with just a .236/.315/.388 line over 492 plate appearances, but he will apparently get every opportunity to demonstrate his potential. So far this spring, he’s given the Phillies a lot to get excited about, hitting four home runs while batting .375/.453/.625 over 56 plate appearances. If he can stay in the lineup regularly, his WAR projection ought to well exceed the above. Should he stumble, journeyman Laynce Nix and an unproven Darin Ruf wait in the wings.
There are a lot of moving parts in the Philly outfield, however. Ben Revere should start in center which leaves John Mayberry without much of a job if the team truly intends to give Delmon Young a starting gig in right. Any kind of an injury, poor start, or hot start could thrust Ruf, Nix, and/or Mayberry into more playing time, and it’s not out of the question that Brown doesn’t stick long in what might be a make-or-break kind of season for him with this team. Time will tell.
#17 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Morse 525 .262 .319 .441 .328 9.1 -1.3 -3.2 1.7
Jason Bay 105 .224 .318 .373 .304 -0.1 0.1 -0.6 0.2
Raul Ibanez 35 .242 .306 .401 .302 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0
Casper Wells 35 .223 .304 .403 .309 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .254 .317 .427 .322 9.0 -1.3 -4.0 2.0
Since the 2000 season, 56 players have played left field for the Seattle Mariners and about 80% of them could play better defense than Michael Morse or Raul Ibanez. In the annual search for “the big bat,” the Mariners went all irrational and traded away cost controlled value for a year of beefcake Michael Morse. And Morse can certainly hit when he’s healthy with a career ISO near .200 and a 30+ HR season just two years past. Defensively, he’s better than Raul Ibanez but that’s like saying Macklemore is somewhat better lyrically than Trever Bauer. The projection isn’t optimistic that Morse will stay healthy all year, and sees a good degree of regression with the bat. A -3.2 fielding projection is probably a best-case scenario too, so he’ll have to hit the snot out of the ball to sniff 2 wins.
Ibanez will see some time versus right handed pitching and no doubt his veteran presence will calm the nerves of Eric Wedge. Casper Wells is probably unlikely to break camp due to a front office which has seemingly compartmentalized rationality somewhere deep in the basement of Safeco Field. I’d say something about Jason Bay, but then I’d need to go kick puppies.
#18 Cubs
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alfonso Soriano 595 .246 .303 .460 .325 3.0 -1.5 2.5 1.8
Dave Sappelt 56 .269 .318 .388 .307 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Brett Jackson 42 .231 .319 .406 .316 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Scott Hairston 7 .253 .308 .456 .327 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .247 .305 .451 .323 2.4 -1.6 2.7 2.0
Annual trade rumors notwithstanding, Alfonso Soriano rather surprisingly turned in a 4 win season in 2012, hitting .262/.322/.499 with 32 home runs and 108 RBI while actually playing quite good defense. Now 37, the projection sees that bubble bursting in 2013 with regression across the board and having about half the value he provided a season prior. Soriano’s also likely to be shipped to another team if the price is right so it’s very possible we’ll see another player in left field for the Cubs by August.
Sappelt is the likely first option to Soriano and he’ll be an upgrade defensively, and over the course of a full season he could provide double digit home runs and stolen bases, but he’ll probably need to wait until 2014 to get the chance.
#19 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Melky Cabrera 490 .290 .342 .449 .339 8.8 -0.1 -1.9 1.9
Rajai Davis 140 .259 .308 .369 .295 -2.4 0.8 -0.4 0.1
Emilio Bonifacio 70 .256 .321 .336 .291 -1.4 0.4 -0.4 0.0
Total 700 .281 .333 .422 .325 5.0 1.1 -2.7 2.0
One of the more shrewd signings of the off season, the Blue Jays pick up Melky Cabrera on the cheap due to what I’d describe to my rugrats as “bad choices.” The projection is a little bearish on playing time for Cabrera, who has been a pretty healthy player over his career, having never spent time on the disabled list. There is a looming cloud relative to Cabrera’s prior transgressions, however, and it’s been floated that he could be disciplined retroactively because all of this Biogenesis shenanigans. So the inherent skepticism in the projection is perhaps warranted.
Eyes will almost certainly be on his power performance as a Blue Jay, with many wondering if his recent spike in ISO as a Royal and Giant sync up with some nefarious science in his body. But Cabrera is still just 28, and knowing what we know about hitter aging curves it wouldn’t be completely out of, ahem, left field, to think that his power ought to be on the upswing. It’s true that as a Brave, his power was nonexistent, but that completely ignores the decent pop he had as a Yankee just the year prior:
Time will tell. But for the time being, the Blue Jays have a left fielder in Cabrera that should give them good production for the next two seasons. Backing up will be Rajai Davis, who will presumably back up all outfield slots heading into 2013 unless Colby Rasmus falters, in which case it’s possible he falls into regular playing time in center. But as far as left field goes, the speedster probably won’t see much time unless the league finds more books to throw at Cabrera.
#20 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Chris Carter 455 .242 .330 .463 .341 10.2 -0.6 -2.4 1.8
J.D. Martinez 105 .259 .321 .395 .313 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.2
Brandon Barnes 105 .228 .282 .361 .279 -2.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
Nate Freiman 35 .243 .300 .382 .295 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .243 .320 .432 .325 6.8 -0.9 -2.9 2.0
Because of the evils of rounding, the Astros fall below the sinister Blue Jays, but manage to remain in the top 2/3 of the rankings. Chris Carter appears to have the angle on the starting left field job in Houston. The right-handed Carter doesn’t really discriminate relative to pitcher handedness in his ability to hit for power, and in fact he actually possesses a higher career ISO vs. RHP at .234 vs. .171 vs. LHP. So he should avoid a platoon situation. His move from the Coliseum to Minute Maid should only help his production as the Coliseum was 16% below league average in home runs for right handed bats where Minute Maid was 8% above. Carter is a classic three true outcomes kind of player and if given the projected 450+ plate appearances, there should be plenty of highlight reel material for Houston fans.
There’s still a very real possibility that the club selects J.D. Martinez over Carter, although that looks unlikely. They’re both right handed, so a traditional platoon wouldn’t be an option. But Martinez is a year younger and is probably a little better defensively. There are some scenarios that could play out where Carter finds himself at DH and/or at first base, clearing the way for Martinez to see more action. But for now, Carter looks like the guy.
#21 Diamondbacks
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jason Kubel 560 .257 .332 .473 .343 8.9 -1.2 -4.8 1.6
Gerardo Parra 126 .277 .339 .407 .320 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.3
Eric Hinske 14 .235 .316 .417 .315 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .260 .333 .460 .338 8.5 -1.3 -4.9 1.9
The Diamondbacks jettisoned Justin Upton and Chris Young which opened things up considerably in the outfield, solidifying Kubel’s starting role in left field despite a defensive ability that has been described as “between bad and horrific.” After slowly deteriorating in Minnesota, the move to Arizona revived his career, hitting 30 home runs and driving in 90. The projection above doesn’t see too much in the way of regression though based on an uncharacteristically high HR/FB rate, the Diamondbacks ought not expect another 30 bombs. Kubel turns 31 in May and while he doesn’t represent a long term solution in left for Arizona, he should provide decent value to the club for 2013.
Presuming Adam Eaton starts in center and Cody Ross is healthy enough to start the season in right, Gerardo Parra will likely fall into some playing time in left field and overall, provides a good depth option in case injuries hit in one of any of the three outfield slots.
#22 Dodgers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carl Crawford 420 .268 .318 .426 .320 4.0 1.3 1.1 1.7
Skip Schumaker 175 .263 .325 .338 .292 -2.3 -0.2 -1.3 0.0
Alex Castellanos 35 .243 .310 .393 .306 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Jerry Hairston 35 .258 .329 .376 .311 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 665 .265 .320 .399 .311 1.7 1.0 -0.3 1.8
There’s a growing “I’ll-believe-it-when-I-see-it” contingent growing relative to Carl Crawford’s debut as a Dodger. A superstar with the Rays, Crawford has been derailed by substandard production and injuries since 2010. Part of the great salary dump of 2012, Crawford was the presumed left field starter until his elbow started to give him trouble in the Spring, and now it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll be ready for opening day. The projection isn’t particularly tickled with his offensive prospects for 2013, although a positive fielding rating would be his first in three years. It’s really anyone’s guess what kind or how much of Carl Crawford the Dodgers get in 2012, but 1.7 WAR would probably be considered a huge victory at this stage.
Skip Schumaker will back up all outfield slots and maybe even second base, but doesn’t do enough with his bat to warrant much enthusiasm. Jerry Harison might start in left field if Crawford isn’t ready to go, but also provides insurance at third base. Prototypical quad-A Alex Castellanos and youngster Yasiel Puig have a shot to make the team as a fourth outfielder, which has value when Carl Crawford is your presumptive starter. But all told, left field isn’t a strength for the Dodgers. But no worry, they might not need much from the position to do well in 2013.
#23 Giants
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Gregor Blanco 455 .232 .325 .331 .294 -5.3 1.6 3.6 1.1
Andres Torres 175 .238 .325 .373 .307 -0.3 0.2 1.0 0.5
Brett Pill 70 .263 .303 .420 .309 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
Total 700 .237 .323 .351 .299 -5.6 1.7 4.7 1.8
Gregor Blanco can play some mean defense, and if he couldn’t, he’d be well under replacement level. In 2012, he hit .244/.333/.344 but his 10.1 fielding rating elevated his WAR to 2.4. As the left handed complement to the left field platoon, Blanco is likely to get the lion’s share of plate appearances in left field and even if the projection thinks his defense regresses a bit, he’s better than league average due to his defense. Torres is almost a mirror image bat from the right side, with perhaps a dose of extra power. His defense is known to be anywhere from good to great, and it’s likely that he’ll roam all over the outfield when the need presents itself. For the Giants, it’s an all defense, little offense proposition in left field, but they’ve got other guys that can carry that load.
#24 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Brantley 630 .273 .336 .382 .312 0.7 0.4 -0.6 1.5
Ezequiel Carrera 35 .263 .317 .355 .297 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1
Tim Fedroff 35 .259 .321 .349 .293 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .272 .335 .379 .310 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 1.6
Michael Brantley has developed into a nice little left fielder with scant power, a touch of speed, but a good ability to get on base and play a passable defense. Brantley turns 26 in May, so perhaps we could see a little glimmer in power production, but the projection isn’t so optimistic. He won’t get your blood pressure up, but Brantley is a cheap, passable option for the Indians in left and he does enough well to warrant a starting position, even if it’s just to be a win and a half above replacement.
#25 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Dayan Viciedo 525 .267 .320 .448 .330 3.6 -0.7 -1.6 1.4
DeWayne Wise 105 .242 .285 .403 .296 -2.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Jordan Danks 70 .235 .314 .374 .304 -1.0 0.0 0.4 0.1
Total 700 .260 .314 .434 .323 0.4 -0.5 -0.9 1.6
One of the more entertaining bats to watch in batting practice, Viciedo possesses unquestioned power. But his work against right handed pitchers suppresses his value considerably. Viciedo bludgeons lefties, with a .350/.391/.642 line against them in 2012 — but he managed just .225/.271/.380 against right handed pitchers, who he faced over 400 times last year. Still just 24, there’s certainly room for improvement for the stocky Cuban slugger and the projection above reflects that. He’s expected to improve across the board and if manages to keep himself on the field for the bulk of the season, he could provide the White Sox for 2+ WAR.
DeWayne Wise and Jordan Danks will back up all outfield positions, and since they’re both left handed, it’s possible they spell Viciedo when there’s a particularly unpleasant right hander on the hill, and there are many in the American League. If Viciedo continues to develop, the White Sox should find themselves several slots higher in 2014.
#26 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nolan Reimold 350 .250 .330 .430 .329 2.8 0.0 -0.2 1.1
Nate McLouth 245 .235 .324 .383 .310 -1.8 0.6 -1.1 0.3
Russ Canzler 105 .238 .302 .407 .307 -1.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .243 .324 .410 .319 0.0 0.4 -1.5 1.6
This one is still unsettled. In terms of the future and true talent, the Orioles would probably prefer for Nolan Reimold to grab hold of the starting job in left field, but he’s been dinged up this Spring and when he’s played, he hasn’t impressed. But then again, neither has McLouth. The likely outcome is a Reimold/McClouth platoon which will probably work better than either of them holding the position outright. Canzler might see time at DH, first base, and/or left field. The maybe future of left field, Xavier Avery was recently sent to AAA. There’s just not a whole lot of hope for more upside than what’s projected here.
#27 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Andy Dirks 490 .274 .324 .421 .322 1.8 0.6 1.5 1.6
Avisail Garcia 140 .252 .281 .373 .283 -3.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Quintin Berry 70 .234 .307 .312 .277 -2.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Total 700 .265 .314 .401 .310 -4.3 1.0 1.7 1.5
With Brennan Boesch out of town, it looks like Andy Dirks will get more reps than previously thought. The projection sees Dirks coming back to earth after posting a .322/.370/.487 line in 2012. That might have a lot to do with the fact that the preponderance of his at bats were in a platoon role and he’s going to be leaned on to see more time against left handers in 2013 due to the heel injury to Avisail Garcia. Dirks just turned 27, so he should be in his prime years. If and when Garcia returns, a modified platoon could be employed by the Tigers but it will probably have a lot more to do with what Dirks has done to date.
The future is Nick Castellanos, who is hitting the tar out of the ball so far this Spring. While it might be more likely that the 21-year old starts at AAA, should Dirks fail to deliver and Castellanos continue to rake, it’s possible we could add another name to the list above.
#28 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jonny Gomes 280 .243 .339 .429 .333 2.5 -0.2 -2.1 0.7
Daniel Nava 175 .249 .340 .384 .319 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.3
Jackie Bradley 140 .259 .343 .387 .320 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.4
Mike Carp 105 .243 .316 .402 .311 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 0.1
Total 700 .248 .336 .405 .324 0.8 -0.7 -2.1 1.5
The Red Sox left field will likely feature a revolving door of players. Jonny Gomes will do his lefty-mashing thing when he’s not DH’ing, providing middling to occasionally embarrassing defense in the process. The remainder of the platoon equation has yet to play out and there are a variety of story lines to keep an eye on. Mike Carp would be a natural fit to play left when a right hander is on the hill, but they may well need him at first base for a period of time given the hip issues of Mike Napoli. Or, Gomes could move to DH, opening up LF for Daniel Nava and/or Jackie Bradley against right-handed pitching. Nobody here is going to provide fantastic defense unless they give Bradley the platoon nod, and one wonders how Gomes is going to look out there trying to navigate the monster, but they have no shortage of options.
#29 Mets
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Lucas Duda 560 .249 .334 .417 .326 7.3 -0.9 -9.7 1.0
Jordany Valdespin 140 .252 .290 .389 .295 -1.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.0
Total 700 .250 .326 .411 .320 5.6 -1.3 -10.4 1.0
It’s something to say that a -9.7 fielding rating would represent great improvement, but that’s exactly what it would mean to Lucas Duda. Duda, 27, showed flashes of offensive prowess in 2012, only to settle with a .239/.329/.389 line overall to go with cringe-inducing defensive skills. The projection thinks he can improve slightly with the bat and significantly with the glove, and even so, he might be just slightly better than replacement level. There’s latent potential there, but we’ve yet to see much from Duda that can’t be classified as fits and spurts. Somewhere, Eno Sarris weeps.
#30 Marlins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Juan Pierre 525 .279 .332 .341 .299 -6.9 1.6 -1.1 0.6
Chris Coghlan 105 .256 .330 .373 .309 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 0.1
Alfredo Silverio 35 .247 .284 .394 .291 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Chone Figgins 35 .242 .320 .322 .288 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .272 .329 .348 .299 -8.9 1.4 -1.9 0.7
I kind of wonder if the Marlins might call Mark McLemore or B.J. Surhoff to see if they’re available. Juan Pierre as a starter says enough about the state of the Marlins, but that he’s backed up by the likes of Chris Coghlan and Chone Figgins says even more without any analysis at all. Neat.
It’s going to be a long season for Marlins fans. Nowhere to go but up here.
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To steal a line from the contemplative Bradley Woodrum, “(T)he danger of ordinal rankings is that we intrinsically assume the distance between each point is the same or close to the same,” which is an excellent point. Some rankings have a good deal of separation while others are tightly packed with very subtle (and perhaps tenuous) advantages. The power rankings aren’t long term, they are for 2013.
#1 Brewers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Braun 665 .301 .374 .539 .387 38.3 1.6 1.1 5.9
Logan Schafer 35 .262 .315 .390 .307 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .299 .371 .531 .383 38.1 1.5 1.1 5.9
Since this is left field specific, Ryan Braun and the Brewers emerge as the #1, if only because we expect Mike Trout to see some time in center. But that’s not to suggest Braun doesn’t belong in the conversation among the game’s elite hitters. For six consecutive seasons, Braun has demonstrated the rare combination of commodities including exceptional power and speed with great plate discipline. He followed up his 7.6 WAR MVP 2011 season with 7.9 WAR 2012. Entering his age-29 season, the projection sees a slight step back in the power department, reflecting a slugging percentage and wOBA just shy of his career averages. Braun is unquestionably an elite talent and despite some of the tangential tomfoolery that has rubbed a little shine off his star, there’s no reason to expect he won’t continue to perform like one in 2013.
#2 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mike Trout 490 .290 .370 .503 .373 24.8 3.6 6.2 4.8
Mark Trumbo 105 .261 .312 .476 .335 2.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.4
Vernon Wells 70 .248 .297 .439 .316 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.2
Kole Calhoun 35 .245 .311 .408 .315 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .279 .351 .487 .358 27.5 3.5 5.9 5.5
The statistical community consensus AL MVP and real-world runner up, Mike Trout is projected here to produce at an elite level, but not quite otherworldly as he was in 2012. Before you grab your pitchforks, be sure to understand that the 490 plate appearances assumes that Trout will be also featured in center field a good deal. Just 21-years-old, it would probably be foolish to project a repeat of one of the greatest offensive performances in recent history, but the projection above only sees moderate regression across the board.
Mark Trumbo put together a solid 2012 campaign but the projection above accurately represents some mash up of his first half and second half where he was an All-Star in the former and fell apart in the latter. For being rather heavy-footed, he was surprisingly not terrible in the outfield last season, and although his time will be mostly spent at DH, it’s likely he sees some time in left where he’ll provide a decent amount of value to the Angels. Vernon Wells might see a handful of innings in left field if only because it’s difficult to pay him $21 million dollars to look pretty.
#3 Cardinals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Holliday 630 .286 .373 .484 .368 28.8 -0.7 -1.5 4.3
Matt Carpenter 35 .264 .354 .397 .330 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Allen Craig 35 .289 .347 .491 .358 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2
Total 700 .285 .371 .480 .366 30.7 -0.8 -1.7 4.6
One of the most consistently productive left fielders in baseball for the last six seasons, Matt Holliday just keeps plugging along, producing 36 WAR since 2007. He just turned 33 so what we know about aging curves suggests his best years are probably in the rear view mirror, and the projection reflects that, as the .368 wOBA would be the lowest since his debut in 2004. He no longer runs and his defense has been in pretty sharp decline over the past three seasons. Even so, Holliday will pack enough in his bat to give the Cardinals great production in left field, likely weighing in with another 25 home runs and 100 RBI.
Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig could fill in if disaster strikes and it actually might be Craig that would take over if they needed a longer term replacement with Matt Adams an option at first base. Carpenter can fill in at first and third and might even open the season as the starting second baseman.
#4 Braves
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Upton 630 .275 .361 .473 .357 21.7 0.2 1.9 4.0
Reed Johnson 35 .256 .304 .373 .295 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Jose Constanza 35 .270 .321 .344 .291 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .274 .356 .461 .351 20.5 0.3 1.9 4.0
The better half of the Upton family attack in Atlanta, Justin Upton might not ever reproduce his fantastic 6.4 WAR season from 2011, but the projection likes him quite a bit better than his 2012 2.5 WAR season. He’s still young, so there’s warranted optimism that he can regain a power stroke that should produce a goodly number home runs to go with 20 steals while playing plus defense. A change of scenery and opportunity to play with his brother B.J. could certainly help in the mental category and he’s young enough to prove that he can still be a superstar.
There’s not much depth behind him in Reed Johnson and Jose Costanza. Although they could probably fill in aptly in a platoon role, there’s no doubt the Braves brass would want it to be brief.
#5 Rockies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Gonzalez 630 .301 .369 .536 .381 23.5 1.4 -2.5 3.8
Eric Young 70 .267 .343 .380 .318 -0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .298 .367 .521 .374 22.6 1.8 -2.3 4.0
Carlos Gonzalez has seen his WAR go from 6.2 to 3.9 to 2.7 over the last three seasons and according to UZR, his defense has a lot to do with it. If he could convince the league to play the entirety of their schedule at home, he’d be up with the Braun’s and Trouts of the world as his home split was .368/.437/.609 versus .234/.301/.405 on the road. He started developing hamstring issues late in the season, eventually getting shut down on the September 23. He may have been playing hurt for weeks as his slash line from mid August to the end of the season was just .215/.284/.344.
He enters 2013 in his age-27 season, and the projection is rather bullish on his ability to get back to an elite level at 4.8 WAR, which would represent his second best season after his 2010 breakout. He’s probably a better defender than -2.5, but his range might also be wrapped up in his health, so his legs are going to have to literally and figuratively carry him if he’s going to flirt with 5 wins. Should the wheels fall off, super-utility guy Eric Young could fill in with decent defense and little bat, so if the Rockies plan to return to the #5 slot here next season, they’ll need a healthy CarGo to do it.
#6 Nationals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Bryce Harper 595 .268 .343 .471 .350 16.8 0.0 4.7 3.7
Tyler Moore 70 .237 .288 .447 .315 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
Steve Lombardozzi 35 .265 .316 .367 .299 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .265 .336 .463 .344 16.4 -0.1 4.5 3.8
Harper is also projected for another handful of plate appearances in right field, so his total WAR production is expected to a skosh higher than 3.7. After producing 4.9 WAR as a 19-year-old, the projection sees roughly a repeat of 2012 with slight regression in his slugging and a step back in the overall value of his defense. It’s hard to keep a level head when thinking about Harper, whose season was among the very best for 19 year old rookies in history. Almost every projection system has Harper hitting 20 home runs and stealing more than 15 bases — a feat accomplished five times by 20 year olds in history, including the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Vada Pinson, Orlando Cepeda, and the kid up there at #2. While he might have monstrous seasons in his future, the projection tries to temper expectations, but I’d expect to see the Nationals jump up a couple notches next year in these rankings.
Tyler Moore is probably the first backup to Harper and he should provide a nice source of power to the Nationals, although he doesn’t project as a particularly strong defender.
#7 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alex Gordon 630 .273 .358 .440 .347 15.7 0.0 4.3 3.6
Lorenzo Cain 35 .265 .321 .398 .314 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
David Lough 35 .262 .304 .402 .306 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 700 .272 .354 .436 .343 15.4 0.1 4.5 3.8
Technically tied with the Nats, the Royals feature Alex Gordon in left, and the projection thinks his 2012 regression was for real. After a career year in 2011, Gordon saw his power and speed drop off significantly, although his fantastic defense kept him from falling too far. He’s a good defender, but probably still due for more defensive regression, and a .347 wOBA looks a lot more like the Alex Gordon of 2008 than the one we’ve seen over the last couple of seasons.
Lorenzo Cain could back up if need be, pushing Jarrod Dyson into center field, which is probably the short term solution should the need arise, with David Lough a possibility should he make the squad out of camp due to his torrid Spring.
#8 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Josh Willingham 630 .249 .355 .470 .355 20.8 -0.7 -5.6 3.0
Darin Mastroianni 70 .244 .314 .326 .285 -1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Total 700 .249 .351 .455 .348 19.1 -0.3 -5.4 3.1
Bucking the trend of aging curves, Josh Willingham put up his most valuable season at the age of 33 with a .260/.366/.524 line, belting 35 home runs and driving in 110 runs, amassing 3.9 WAR. The projection is rather dubious about 2013, although a 3 win season from Josh Willingham isn’t necessarily something to scoff at. Ignoring the fact that Willingham may not finish the season as a Twin, he has nonetheless provided them very good value on the contract they gave him two seasons ago. If the Twins didn’t have such tremendous depth at DH (yeah, that’s sarcasm), he’d be best suited not trying to catch fly balls, but with the current roster construction, they don’t have much of a choice but trot him out on the field as long as he lasts.
If Darin Mastroianni doesn’t win the center field job outright, he’ll rove enough to see some time in left, and given Willingham’s history of health, he should fall into a number of at bats. Against the odds, 2012 was really the most healthy season from Willingham in the past five years. The list of his ailments prior to last year are a physical therapist dream: Shoulder, thigh, neck, ankle, foot, elbow, knee, groin. You name the body part and Willingham has probably complained about it. 630 plate appearances is probably optimistic.
#9 Padres
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Quentin 525 .252 .348 .465 .351 20.0 -0.9 -5.5 2.7
Mark Kotsay 105 .255 .318 .356 .295 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 0.1
Kyle Blanks 70 .234 .317 .414 .317 0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.2
Total 700 .251 .340 .443 .339 19.9 -1.2 -6.5 2.9
A nose in front of the Twinks, the Padres will squeeze as much value out of the injury prone Carlos Quentin in left field. 525 plate appearances might be optimistic though. He’s averaged just over 400 PA’s over the last four seasons and he’s already been complaining about his knee in Spring Training. If he did manage 500+ PA’s, he’s certainly a productive power hitter but his defense can be a circus at times, and -5.5 might also be a bit kind.
If Quentin misses time, a mix of Jesus Guzman, Mark Kotsay, and maybe Kyle Blanks could ostensibly fill in, with Kotsay potentially being the main beneficiary. None of the three add much value in short-term roles if only to be more palatable defensively to Quentin.
#10 Pirates
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Starling Marte 560 .270 .319 .432 .322 4.9 0.1 4.8 2.4
Jose Tabata 140 .268 .337 .381 .317 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4
Total 700 .270 .322 .422 .321 5.5 0.0 4.9 2.7
Marte might be just 24 with not much in the way of major league experience, but he’s the presumptive starter in left field for the Pirates. If Marte isn’t a five tool talent, he’s at least 4.5 with plus speed and enough pop in his bat for double digit home runs. He’s a very good defender and he’s coming off a big Dominican Winter League performance, but given his youth and inexperience, it’s a little difficult to project him. The projection above actually sees improvement from Marte in batting average and on base percentage and thinks he can replicate his slugging percentage. If he manages to put together more than the 560 plate appearances reflected above, he could push 3 wins but there’s the real possibility that Jose Tabata spells him occasionally in a roving fourth outfielder role.
Between Marte and McCutchen, the Pirates have to be pretty pleased with two thirds of their outfield for the foreseeable future, and if Tabata can realize his potential and grab the starting role in right, the Bucs could be set for years in the outfield.
#11 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yoenis Cespedes 455 .277 .344 .465 .348 13.4 -0.3 -5.1 1.9
Seth Smith 140 .245 .330 .419 .323 1.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.4
Chris Young 105 .229 .322 .402 .317 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.4
Total 700 .264 .338 .447 .338 15.2 -0.3 -4.6 2.7
The Athletics will look to squeeze 2.7 WAR out of left field with some combination of Cespedes, Smith, and Young. Cespedes wasn’t particularly helpful on defense with a UZR of -9.6, hurting his overall WAR despite a highly successful offensive season. In his rookie campaign, Cespedes hit .292/.356/.505 with 23 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 129 games. He’s a free swinger who makes mediocre contact on balls outside of the zone and the projection seems to think he’ll take a step back on BABIP with a concomitant dip in his batting average while maintaining a respectable on base percentage.
Smith will play somewhere when a right hander is on the hill, which is obviously frequent. Some of that time will no doubt be in left field and over 440 plate appearances in 2012, Smith managed 1.4 WAR. And since the Athletics once again stockpiled outfielders, it’s rather unknown when and where Chris Young might play, but if the A’s want to start protecting Cespedes to a greater degree and/or value defense in left, it’s possible Young could fall into a good deal of time in left field. The projection above isn’t terribly bullish, but even in a disappointing and injury prone season, Young produced 2.8 WAR over just 363 plate appearances.
#12 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
David Murphy 630 .278 .349 .436 .339 6.8 -0.3 3.4 2.5
Leonys Martin 70 .274 .334 .432 .331 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .278 .348 .436 .338 7.1 -0.5 3.4 2.7
The perennial fourth outfielder, David Murphy was finally handed a starting role and he turned in his finest season at .304/.380/.479 with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases, amassing 4.0 WAR. The projection suggests a little regression and perhaps realism about what kind of a hitter David Murphy is at a true-talent level, which reflects about a rough combination of his 2011 and 2012 seasons. If Leonys Martin doesn’t win the center field job outright, there’s a possibility he roams around the outfield to spell the regulars and pick up a good number of games in left, but that is a battle which remains to sort itself out.
There’s also the possibility that the team wants to experiment with Mike Olt in left field when Texas faces left handers since Murphy has struggled versus lefties over his career (though he improved markedly in 75 at bats in 2012). He might not be flashy, but Murphy gives the Rangers a lot of value for the money, signed to a deal paying him about $5.7 million for 2013. If he can produce what the projection forecasts, he’ll be a bargain.
#13 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Joyce 525 .248 .345 .439 .337 11.9 -0.3 -0.6 2.4
Sam Fuld 105 .241 .318 .343 .293 -1.3 0.0 0.8 0.2
Kelly Johnson 70 .226 .313 .376 .303 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .245 .338 .418 .327 10.3 -0.3 0.0 2.7
The Rays check in with Matt Joyce, who stumbled in 2012 after his impressive 3.8 win season of 2011. The projection thinks he can do more though, with improvements across the board both offensively and defensively. It seems like Joyce has been around for a while but he enters 2013 at just 28, if he could manage to figure out how to be at least passable versus left handed pitching, he has the potential to put up good power numbers. Serial backup Sam Fuld will spell him occasionally and the role of Kelly Johnson is likely to be ever-evolving but for the sake of Rays fans, let’s hope they don’t wind up relying on him for a corner outfield assignment.
#14 Reds
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Ludwick 630 .256 .328 .455 .337 9.6 -0.9 -2.7 2.1
Chris Heisey 70 .256 .313 .437 .324 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2
Total 700 .256 .327 .454 .335 9.9 -0.8 -2.7 2.3
Ludwick returns to the Reds to reprise his role as lefty masher. He did hit .275/.346/.531 overall but where his wOBA versus right handed pitchers was .364, he managed .397 against southpaws. He might not get back to his 37 home run season in 2008, but last year, Ludwick hit 26 home runs while cutting his strikeouts marginally. His defense won’t win any hardware, though the projection suggests he’s capable of better than his -4.7 rating from 2012. Ludwick turns 35 in July, so it’s unknown if he’ll give the Reds market value on his two-year $15 million dollar contact. He was healthy for most of 2012 but he did spend at least one stint on the disabled list each of the previous three seasons. Given his age, the Reds might keep the training team on their toes.
Chris Heisey saw his ISO drop from .233 to .135 between 2011 and 2012 and the re-signing of Ludwick coupled with the Shin Soo-Choo pickup pushes him to backing up all three outfield slots. He’s a decent fielder with intriguing power, and gives the Reds a good bat off the bench and/or a late-inning defensive replacement for Ludwick.
#15 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brett Gardner 385 .260 .356 .367 .322 1.2 2.5 7.3 2.1
Ben Francisco 105 .240 .311 .376 .302 -1.4 -0.1 -0.8 0.0
Juan Rivera 105 .254 .310 .403 .307 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.1
Ichiro Suzuki 70 .286 .318 .386 .302 -0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1
Brennan Boesch 35 .257 .313 .413 .313 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.0
Total 700 .259 .336 .379 .315 -2.3 2.3 6.0 2.3
Brett Gardner will play center in Curtis Granderson’s stead until his return. When that time comes is entirely up to the healing speed of Granderson’s forearm, but when he’s back, Gardner will likely shift to left field. The projection puts Gardner at about 55% in left field, and providing very good value there, in large part due to excellent defense.
The remainder of left field is likely some amalgam of Ben Francisco, Juan Rivera, Ichiro, and newly acquired for the pile, Brennan Boesch. Rivera might be needed more at first base until that wreck is cleared so perhaps Ben Francisco and Ichiro/Boesch form some kind of platoon for the first couple of months. Or at least until they go out and get somebody new. Stay tuned.
#16 Phillies
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Domonic Brown 420 .266 .338 .447 .336 7.2 -0.6 -2.0 1.5
Laynce Nix 105 .241 .304 .424 .313 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.3
Darin Ruf 105 .258 .324 .426 .323 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.3
John Mayberry 70 .250 .309 .422 .316 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .259 .328 .438 .329 7.7 -0.9 -2.0 2.2
Domonic Brown is the presumptive starter headed into 2013 after years of top prospect status. Brown has little left to prove after hitting .296/.373/.461 over seven seasons in the minor leagues but yet so much to prove at the major league level. Still just 25-years-old, Brown has good power and speed and has demonstrated good command of the strike zone. He’s yet to perform well on the big stage with just a .236/.315/.388 line over 492 plate appearances, but he will apparently get every opportunity to demonstrate his potential. So far this spring, he’s given the Phillies a lot to get excited about, hitting four home runs while batting .375/.453/.625 over 56 plate appearances. If he can stay in the lineup regularly, his WAR projection ought to well exceed the above. Should he stumble, journeyman Laynce Nix and an unproven Darin Ruf wait in the wings.
There are a lot of moving parts in the Philly outfield, however. Ben Revere should start in center which leaves John Mayberry without much of a job if the team truly intends to give Delmon Young a starting gig in right. Any kind of an injury, poor start, or hot start could thrust Ruf, Nix, and/or Mayberry into more playing time, and it’s not out of the question that Brown doesn’t stick long in what might be a make-or-break kind of season for him with this team. Time will tell.
#17 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Morse 525 .262 .319 .441 .328 9.1 -1.3 -3.2 1.7
Jason Bay 105 .224 .318 .373 .304 -0.1 0.1 -0.6 0.2
Raul Ibanez 35 .242 .306 .401 .302 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0
Casper Wells 35 .223 .304 .403 .309 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1
Total 700 .254 .317 .427 .322 9.0 -1.3 -4.0 2.0
Since the 2000 season, 56 players have played left field for the Seattle Mariners and about 80% of them could play better defense than Michael Morse or Raul Ibanez. In the annual search for “the big bat,” the Mariners went all irrational and traded away cost controlled value for a year of beefcake Michael Morse. And Morse can certainly hit when he’s healthy with a career ISO near .200 and a 30+ HR season just two years past. Defensively, he’s better than Raul Ibanez but that’s like saying Macklemore is somewhat better lyrically than Trever Bauer. The projection isn’t optimistic that Morse will stay healthy all year, and sees a good degree of regression with the bat. A -3.2 fielding projection is probably a best-case scenario too, so he’ll have to hit the snot out of the ball to sniff 2 wins.
Ibanez will see some time versus right handed pitching and no doubt his veteran presence will calm the nerves of Eric Wedge. Casper Wells is probably unlikely to break camp due to a front office which has seemingly compartmentalized rationality somewhere deep in the basement of Safeco Field. I’d say something about Jason Bay, but then I’d need to go kick puppies.
#18 Cubs
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alfonso Soriano 595 .246 .303 .460 .325 3.0 -1.5 2.5 1.8
Dave Sappelt 56 .269 .318 .388 .307 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Brett Jackson 42 .231 .319 .406 .316 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Scott Hairston 7 .253 .308 .456 .327 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .247 .305 .451 .323 2.4 -1.6 2.7 2.0
Annual trade rumors notwithstanding, Alfonso Soriano rather surprisingly turned in a 4 win season in 2012, hitting .262/.322/.499 with 32 home runs and 108 RBI while actually playing quite good defense. Now 37, the projection sees that bubble bursting in 2013 with regression across the board and having about half the value he provided a season prior. Soriano’s also likely to be shipped to another team if the price is right so it’s very possible we’ll see another player in left field for the Cubs by August.
Sappelt is the likely first option to Soriano and he’ll be an upgrade defensively, and over the course of a full season he could provide double digit home runs and stolen bases, but he’ll probably need to wait until 2014 to get the chance.
#19 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Melky Cabrera 490 .290 .342 .449 .339 8.8 -0.1 -1.9 1.9
Rajai Davis 140 .259 .308 .369 .295 -2.4 0.8 -0.4 0.1
Emilio Bonifacio 70 .256 .321 .336 .291 -1.4 0.4 -0.4 0.0
Total 700 .281 .333 .422 .325 5.0 1.1 -2.7 2.0
One of the more shrewd signings of the off season, the Blue Jays pick up Melky Cabrera on the cheap due to what I’d describe to my rugrats as “bad choices.” The projection is a little bearish on playing time for Cabrera, who has been a pretty healthy player over his career, having never spent time on the disabled list. There is a looming cloud relative to Cabrera’s prior transgressions, however, and it’s been floated that he could be disciplined retroactively because all of this Biogenesis shenanigans. So the inherent skepticism in the projection is perhaps warranted.
Eyes will almost certainly be on his power performance as a Blue Jay, with many wondering if his recent spike in ISO as a Royal and Giant sync up with some nefarious science in his body. But Cabrera is still just 28, and knowing what we know about hitter aging curves it wouldn’t be completely out of, ahem, left field, to think that his power ought to be on the upswing. It’s true that as a Brave, his power was nonexistent, but that completely ignores the decent pop he had as a Yankee just the year prior:
Time will tell. But for the time being, the Blue Jays have a left fielder in Cabrera that should give them good production for the next two seasons. Backing up will be Rajai Davis, who will presumably back up all outfield slots heading into 2013 unless Colby Rasmus falters, in which case it’s possible he falls into regular playing time in center. But as far as left field goes, the speedster probably won’t see much time unless the league finds more books to throw at Cabrera.
#20 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Chris Carter 455 .242 .330 .463 .341 10.2 -0.6 -2.4 1.8
J.D. Martinez 105 .259 .321 .395 .313 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.2
Brandon Barnes 105 .228 .282 .361 .279 -2.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
Nate Freiman 35 .243 .300 .382 .295 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .243 .320 .432 .325 6.8 -0.9 -2.9 2.0
Because of the evils of rounding, the Astros fall below the sinister Blue Jays, but manage to remain in the top 2/3 of the rankings. Chris Carter appears to have the angle on the starting left field job in Houston. The right-handed Carter doesn’t really discriminate relative to pitcher handedness in his ability to hit for power, and in fact he actually possesses a higher career ISO vs. RHP at .234 vs. .171 vs. LHP. So he should avoid a platoon situation. His move from the Coliseum to Minute Maid should only help his production as the Coliseum was 16% below league average in home runs for right handed bats where Minute Maid was 8% above. Carter is a classic three true outcomes kind of player and if given the projected 450+ plate appearances, there should be plenty of highlight reel material for Houston fans.
There’s still a very real possibility that the club selects J.D. Martinez over Carter, although that looks unlikely. They’re both right handed, so a traditional platoon wouldn’t be an option. But Martinez is a year younger and is probably a little better defensively. There are some scenarios that could play out where Carter finds himself at DH and/or at first base, clearing the way for Martinez to see more action. But for now, Carter looks like the guy.
#21 Diamondbacks
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jason Kubel 560 .257 .332 .473 .343 8.9 -1.2 -4.8 1.6
Gerardo Parra 126 .277 .339 .407 .320 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.3
Eric Hinske 14 .235 .316 .417 .315 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .260 .333 .460 .338 8.5 -1.3 -4.9 1.9
The Diamondbacks jettisoned Justin Upton and Chris Young which opened things up considerably in the outfield, solidifying Kubel’s starting role in left field despite a defensive ability that has been described as “between bad and horrific.” After slowly deteriorating in Minnesota, the move to Arizona revived his career, hitting 30 home runs and driving in 90. The projection above doesn’t see too much in the way of regression though based on an uncharacteristically high HR/FB rate, the Diamondbacks ought not expect another 30 bombs. Kubel turns 31 in May and while he doesn’t represent a long term solution in left for Arizona, he should provide decent value to the club for 2013.
Presuming Adam Eaton starts in center and Cody Ross is healthy enough to start the season in right, Gerardo Parra will likely fall into some playing time in left field and overall, provides a good depth option in case injuries hit in one of any of the three outfield slots.
#22 Dodgers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carl Crawford 420 .268 .318 .426 .320 4.0 1.3 1.1 1.7
Skip Schumaker 175 .263 .325 .338 .292 -2.3 -0.2 -1.3 0.0
Alex Castellanos 35 .243 .310 .393 .306 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Jerry Hairston 35 .258 .329 .376 .311 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 665 .265 .320 .399 .311 1.7 1.0 -0.3 1.8
There’s a growing “I’ll-believe-it-when-I-see-it” contingent growing relative to Carl Crawford’s debut as a Dodger. A superstar with the Rays, Crawford has been derailed by substandard production and injuries since 2010. Part of the great salary dump of 2012, Crawford was the presumed left field starter until his elbow started to give him trouble in the Spring, and now it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll be ready for opening day. The projection isn’t particularly tickled with his offensive prospects for 2013, although a positive fielding rating would be his first in three years. It’s really anyone’s guess what kind or how much of Carl Crawford the Dodgers get in 2012, but 1.7 WAR would probably be considered a huge victory at this stage.
Skip Schumaker will back up all outfield slots and maybe even second base, but doesn’t do enough with his bat to warrant much enthusiasm. Jerry Harison might start in left field if Crawford isn’t ready to go, but also provides insurance at third base. Prototypical quad-A Alex Castellanos and youngster Yasiel Puig have a shot to make the team as a fourth outfielder, which has value when Carl Crawford is your presumptive starter. But all told, left field isn’t a strength for the Dodgers. But no worry, they might not need much from the position to do well in 2013.
#23 Giants
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Gregor Blanco 455 .232 .325 .331 .294 -5.3 1.6 3.6 1.1
Andres Torres 175 .238 .325 .373 .307 -0.3 0.2 1.0 0.5
Brett Pill 70 .263 .303 .420 .309 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
Total 700 .237 .323 .351 .299 -5.6 1.7 4.7 1.8
Gregor Blanco can play some mean defense, and if he couldn’t, he’d be well under replacement level. In 2012, he hit .244/.333/.344 but his 10.1 fielding rating elevated his WAR to 2.4. As the left handed complement to the left field platoon, Blanco is likely to get the lion’s share of plate appearances in left field and even if the projection thinks his defense regresses a bit, he’s better than league average due to his defense. Torres is almost a mirror image bat from the right side, with perhaps a dose of extra power. His defense is known to be anywhere from good to great, and it’s likely that he’ll roam all over the outfield when the need presents itself. For the Giants, it’s an all defense, little offense proposition in left field, but they’ve got other guys that can carry that load.
#24 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Michael Brantley 630 .273 .336 .382 .312 0.7 0.4 -0.6 1.5
Ezequiel Carrera 35 .263 .317 .355 .297 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1
Tim Fedroff 35 .259 .321 .349 .293 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .272 .335 .379 .310 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 1.6
Michael Brantley has developed into a nice little left fielder with scant power, a touch of speed, but a good ability to get on base and play a passable defense. Brantley turns 26 in May, so perhaps we could see a little glimmer in power production, but the projection isn’t so optimistic. He won’t get your blood pressure up, but Brantley is a cheap, passable option for the Indians in left and he does enough well to warrant a starting position, even if it’s just to be a win and a half above replacement.
#25 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Dayan Viciedo 525 .267 .320 .448 .330 3.6 -0.7 -1.6 1.4
DeWayne Wise 105 .242 .285 .403 .296 -2.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Jordan Danks 70 .235 .314 .374 .304 -1.0 0.0 0.4 0.1
Total 700 .260 .314 .434 .323 0.4 -0.5 -0.9 1.6
One of the more entertaining bats to watch in batting practice, Viciedo possesses unquestioned power. But his work against right handed pitchers suppresses his value considerably. Viciedo bludgeons lefties, with a .350/.391/.642 line against them in 2012 — but he managed just .225/.271/.380 against right handed pitchers, who he faced over 400 times last year. Still just 24, there’s certainly room for improvement for the stocky Cuban slugger and the projection above reflects that. He’s expected to improve across the board and if manages to keep himself on the field for the bulk of the season, he could provide the White Sox for 2+ WAR.
DeWayne Wise and Jordan Danks will back up all outfield positions, and since they’re both left handed, it’s possible they spell Viciedo when there’s a particularly unpleasant right hander on the hill, and there are many in the American League. If Viciedo continues to develop, the White Sox should find themselves several slots higher in 2014.
#26 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nolan Reimold 350 .250 .330 .430 .329 2.8 0.0 -0.2 1.1
Nate McLouth 245 .235 .324 .383 .310 -1.8 0.6 -1.1 0.3
Russ Canzler 105 .238 .302 .407 .307 -1.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Total 700 .243 .324 .410 .319 0.0 0.4 -1.5 1.6
This one is still unsettled. In terms of the future and true talent, the Orioles would probably prefer for Nolan Reimold to grab hold of the starting job in left field, but he’s been dinged up this Spring and when he’s played, he hasn’t impressed. But then again, neither has McLouth. The likely outcome is a Reimold/McClouth platoon which will probably work better than either of them holding the position outright. Canzler might see time at DH, first base, and/or left field. The maybe future of left field, Xavier Avery was recently sent to AAA. There’s just not a whole lot of hope for more upside than what’s projected here.
#27 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Andy Dirks 490 .274 .324 .421 .322 1.8 0.6 1.5 1.6
Avisail Garcia 140 .252 .281 .373 .283 -3.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Quintin Berry 70 .234 .307 .312 .277 -2.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Total 700 .265 .314 .401 .310 -4.3 1.0 1.7 1.5
With Brennan Boesch out of town, it looks like Andy Dirks will get more reps than previously thought. The projection sees Dirks coming back to earth after posting a .322/.370/.487 line in 2012. That might have a lot to do with the fact that the preponderance of his at bats were in a platoon role and he’s going to be leaned on to see more time against left handers in 2013 due to the heel injury to Avisail Garcia. Dirks just turned 27, so he should be in his prime years. If and when Garcia returns, a modified platoon could be employed by the Tigers but it will probably have a lot more to do with what Dirks has done to date.
The future is Nick Castellanos, who is hitting the tar out of the ball so far this Spring. While it might be more likely that the 21-year old starts at AAA, should Dirks fail to deliver and Castellanos continue to rake, it’s possible we could add another name to the list above.
#28 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jonny Gomes 280 .243 .339 .429 .333 2.5 -0.2 -2.1 0.7
Daniel Nava 175 .249 .340 .384 .319 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.3
Jackie Bradley 140 .259 .343 .387 .320 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.4
Mike Carp 105 .243 .316 .402 .311 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 0.1
Total 700 .248 .336 .405 .324 0.8 -0.7 -2.1 1.5
The Red Sox left field will likely feature a revolving door of players. Jonny Gomes will do his lefty-mashing thing when he’s not DH’ing, providing middling to occasionally embarrassing defense in the process. The remainder of the platoon equation has yet to play out and there are a variety of story lines to keep an eye on. Mike Carp would be a natural fit to play left when a right hander is on the hill, but they may well need him at first base for a period of time given the hip issues of Mike Napoli. Or, Gomes could move to DH, opening up LF for Daniel Nava and/or Jackie Bradley against right-handed pitching. Nobody here is going to provide fantastic defense unless they give Bradley the platoon nod, and one wonders how Gomes is going to look out there trying to navigate the monster, but they have no shortage of options.
#29 Mets
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Lucas Duda 560 .249 .334 .417 .326 7.3 -0.9 -9.7 1.0
Jordany Valdespin 140 .252 .290 .389 .295 -1.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.0
Total 700 .250 .326 .411 .320 5.6 -1.3 -10.4 1.0
It’s something to say that a -9.7 fielding rating would represent great improvement, but that’s exactly what it would mean to Lucas Duda. Duda, 27, showed flashes of offensive prowess in 2012, only to settle with a .239/.329/.389 line overall to go with cringe-inducing defensive skills. The projection thinks he can improve slightly with the bat and significantly with the glove, and even so, he might be just slightly better than replacement level. There’s latent potential there, but we’ve yet to see much from Duda that can’t be classified as fits and spurts. Somewhere, Eno Sarris weeps.
#30 Marlins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Juan Pierre 525 .279 .332 .341 .299 -6.9 1.6 -1.1 0.6
Chris Coghlan 105 .256 .330 .373 .309 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 0.1
Alfredo Silverio 35 .247 .284 .394 .291 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Chone Figgins 35 .242 .320 .322 .288 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .272 .329 .348 .299 -8.9 1.4 -1.9 0.7
I kind of wonder if the Marlins might call Mark McLemore or B.J. Surhoff to see if they’re available. Juan Pierre as a starter says enough about the state of the Marlins, but that he’s backed up by the likes of Chris Coghlan and Chone Figgins says even more without any analysis at all. Neat.
It’s going to be a long season for Marlins fans. Nowhere to go but up here.
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2013 Positional Power Rankings: Designated Hitter.
Originalish post: These rankings are fun. They do not affect the results on the field or the players ranked in them or the GMs glowering over the players. But we are inexorably drawn to these sorts of rankings. With egos invested into our teams, rankings give us pre-season bragging rights or grinding axes.
In all this fun, however, it is important to remember the function of our list. As we are wont to do at FanGraphs, we have attempted to make our lists in the most clinical, mathematical and unbiased ways as possible. Whereas many MLB power rankings are based on gut judgements or broad, basic analyses, we have computed a scientific power ranking system that requires human input only when it is an improvement over an algorithm.
This means, however, the space between each team is discrete. The distance between No. 1 and No. 2 is much greater than, as you will see, between No. 13 and No. 14:
Two are clustered near the top, others are rounding errors apart, and two teams appear clustered near the bottom. But an ordinal ranking does not represent that accurately.
And even despite our best utilization of projection systems and playing time predictions, the season is unpredictable. Not just hard to predict, but unpredictable. If it weren’t, who would watch it? But as of now, as of our best playing time estimations, as of the best projection systems, this is how the DH world settles. This is how the big and sluggerish stand.
Without further ado, I present the Slow and Sluggering Show:
#1 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
David Ortiz 455 .286 .382 .534 .386 23.2 -2.1 0.0 2.6
Jonny Gomes 105 .241 .339 .430 .334 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Mike Napoli 70 .249 .348 .477 .353 1.8 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Mike Carp 35 .243 .316 .402 .311 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Daniel Nava 35 .249 .340 .384 .319 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .271 .367 .498 .367 25.6 -2.3 0.0 3.0
It is hard to expect 600 or more plate appearances from David Ortiz. He will be 37 in the 2013 season and had an injury-clipped 2012 campaign, but all the same, his bat could not appear any younger. In 2011 at age 35, he seemingly reinvented his approach, cutting his strikeout rate beneath a 14% K-rate for the first time in his career. And then in 2012, through 383 PA, he mustered another sub-14% K-rate and struck out less than he walked for only the third time in his career.
When talking DH, the conversation is Ortiz and the field. His proven, steady productivity puts the Red Sox on a special tier. And if he struggles again with health, his backup should be Mike Napoli, who swings a bat of no little renown either, and Jonny Gomes, who abuses lefties and isn’t the worst against righties.
All told, it makes the best DH combo in the league, but by a small margin.
#2 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Billy Butler 602 .296 .369 .484 .363 23.0 -2.1 0.0 2.7
Salvador Perez 35 .284 .320 .423 .320 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Eric Hosmer 35 .274 .342 .441 .337 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
Jeff Francoeur 28 .257 .310 .410 .307 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .293 .363 .476 .358 23.5 -2.2 0.0 2.8
The Royals rank No. 2 here, and here we also conclude our first cluster. Both Kansas City and the Red Sox feature enviable DH situations. On the merit of Billy “Country Breakfast” Butler’s durability, the Big KC earns a better projection than the otherwise impressive Rangers DH situation. Butler has averaged more than 670 PA during the last four seasons (and 600 PA as a DH over the last two seasons). Entering his physical peak (age-27 season), he should continue the same.
Butler had a filthy .373 OBP and .510 SLG, good for 140 wRC+ in 2012, but the duo of Steamer and ZiPS sees him regressing to a .369 OBP and .484 SLG. Behind the Great Morning Meal, the Royals do not have obvious DH types. The dropoff here could be much greater than in Texas, but it is nonetheless dandy to have a catcher in Salvador Perez who enters the season with a career 119 wRC+ and who could benefit from a few DH days to keep his catcher parts fresh. When Perez takes a spin at DH on days Butler is at first or taking a breather, the change in offense production should be neatly, though not perfectly, contained. The projection systems also forecast a solid season for Eric Hosmer, which could mitigate potential production losses if Butler succumbs to the unforeseen.
#3 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Lance Berkman 525 .268 .378 .481 .367 17.4 -0.9 0.0 2.2
Mike Olt 70 .244 .327 .424 .325 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
A.J. Pierzynski 21 .274 .315 .429 .319 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Geovany Soto 21 .234 .320 .418 .319 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ian Kinsler 21 .265 .348 .443 .344 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Adrian Beltre 21 .296 .340 .515 .362 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
Nelson Cruz 21 .265 .327 .483 .345 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .265 .366 .472 .358 18.5 -1.0 0.0 2.4
On pure hitting talent, I would take Lance Berkman over Billy Butler (career 146 wRC+ versus 121 wRC+). But Berkman is aged, post-injured, and on the aging slope’s slippery side. He also will be paying the DH penalty for the first time since his abbreviated Yankees tenure (where he posted a 91 wRC+ through 123 PA). He clobbered expectations in 2011 with the second-best offensive season of his career (163 wRC+), but projecting him for beyond 500 PA in 2013 requires uncommon faith in his 37-year-old frame.
A.J. Pierzynski, Geovany Soto, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz can and will probably log some DH plate appearances for Texas, but the surest bet behind the freshly-rehabbed, not-young Berkman is fresh and young corner infielder Michael Olt, who should offer, if nothing else, some power. If Texas is feeling frisky, they might summon Jurickson Profar and play Musical DH in an eventual Berkman absence. Either way, the Rangers have a wealth of options that, despite even Berkman’s question-mark-shaped health, puts them in the no man’s land between the top tier and the rounding-error cluster.
#4 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mark Trumbo 350 .261 .312 .476 .335 7.1 -0.4 0.0 1.0
Albert Pujols 105 .293 .373 .539 .378 5.8 -0.1 0.0 0.7
Vernon Wells 105 .248 .297 .439 .316 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Hank Conger 70 .250 .313 .383 .302 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Josh Hamilton 35 .273 .340 .494 .351 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
Chris Iannetta 35 .226 .338 .388 .319 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .262 .322 .467 .335 14.4 -0.6 0.0 2.1
“What’s wrong with the Angels?” you ask. I don’t know. I like the Angels. I like Mark Trumbo. In fact, I fully expect Trumbo to manage a wOBA above .345 in his age-27 season. I would not be surprised to see a .325 OBP or higher. I would rank the Angels higher.
But, here’s the deal: I am not an emotionless projection system, hardened into calculated wisdom. I’m a fickle, emotional human thing. I like Trumbo, you might too, but Steamer and ZiPS agree: He’s a touch better than Adam Lind.
And since he possess defensive flexibility (flexibility without acumen, albeit), he will likely spell Albert Pujols, Vernon Wells, and few others. Ceding DH plate appearances to Pujols? Sure. Cool. It only helps. Ceding PAs to Vernon Wells? Not so cool. The net result? Let’s just say: The opportunity cost of rostering Vernon Wells increases; it edges skyward like bubbling Kilauea, biding time, collecting paychecks, steadily not playing great baseball — I’m talking about Vernon Wells, but some of this might apply to Kilauea too. Never been.
#5 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Victor Martinez 525 .289 .351 .442 .340 9.6 -1.2 0.0 1.3
Andy Dirks 70 .274 .324 .421 .322 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Prince Fielder 35 .288 .404 .512 .386 1.9 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Miguel Cabrera 35 .317 .403 .568 .405 2.5 -0.1 0.0 0.3
Torii Hunter 35 .279 .342 .433 .335 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .288 .353 .449 .344 14.8 -1.3 0.0 2.0
The Detroit Tigers have perhaps the most curious DH conundrum. Their ranking, like most any other rankings here, relates directly with the hitter on the top of the depth chart; but unlike the other DH groups, the less of Victor Martinez, the better this group does. Martinez, coming off an entirely lost 2012 campaign, will be 34 in 2013. His offensive projections are solid, if not great.
But his backups? Pitch Killers and Twirl Torturers. Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera, the most likely to pick up the slack from an injured Martinez, only improve the projected offense for the Tigers DH position. Andy Dirks will probably get some playing time here too, which does not add much in the way thrilling offense, but a long-term injury to Martinez might result in more Fielder and Cabrera.
Without Martinez, the Tigers are a worse team. Nobody in Michigan wants a Martinez injury. But with less Martinez, the DH production improves as playing time cedes to a pair of other-worldly hitters. If Fielders gets 100 or 200 PA here, the Tigers DH slot pushes for No. 4 or No. 3 in this power ranking. Such is the nature of rankings, I guess.
#6 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam Lind 420 .262 .321 .449 .329 4.5 -0.7 0.0 0.8
Edwin Encarnacion 70 .269 .359 .498 .364 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
Melky Cabrera 70 .290 .342 .446 .337 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
Rajai Davis 70 .259 .308 .369 .295 -1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Jose Bautista 70 .266 .393 .545 .396 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
Total 700 .265 .333 .454 .337 11.6 -0.4 0.0 1.8
Adam Lind is not what we think when we think, “Sixth best DH in the league,” and there’s a reason for that: He’s not the 6th best DH in the league. But since he has no business hitting against lefties, and since Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have a multi-million dollar, international, blue-power-suit-wearing business hitting lefties, and since the latter two cannot — by Canadian law — rest against left-handed starting pitchers (especially given the lefty-soaked rotations of the AL East), these gentlemen — Mr. Bautista and Mr. Encarnacion — will elevate the otherwise uninspiring, Lind-led Blue Jays DH position.
Add to this potent duo: Melky Cabrera, upon whom shine the projection systems (oblivious in their digital, cold magnanimity to the implications, the possibilities, the doubts of a failed PED test). Can Melky, entering only his age-28 season, sustain his new BABIP level, begun in 2011, begun before The Failed Tests?
Questions like these and names like “Lind,” help illustrate why, despite ranking just two spots beneath the Rangers, the Blue Jays at No. 6 are further down the list than ordinal ranking suggests.
#7 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Kendrys Morales 525 .263 .323 .455 .333 11.5 -2.1 0.0 1.4
Jesus Montero 140 .265 .318 .426 .319 1.4 -0.3 0.0 0.2
Raul Ibanez 35 .241 .304 .400 .301 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .262 .321 .446 .329 12.7 -2.4 0.0 1.7
Kendrys Morales has been a switch hitter in name only throughout his career. Against southpaws, he owns an 84 wRC+, but we would be remiss to note that’s just 392 PA — with a .266 BABIP, which may or may not mean anything. Moreover, his minor league splits never seemed particularly one-sided.
Either way, Morales, Jesus Montero and tumbleweed Raul Ibanez will split the DH role (as Morales will get some playing time at first). ZiPS (.308 wOBA) is the most pessimistic about Montero, but Steamer (.326 wOBA) and the others (all above .333 wOBA) predict a better sophomore campaign for the 23-year-old catcher.
The net result should be about the same as any other team from No. 6 all the way down to No. 12. This whole middle tier is a week of hot or cold BABIP apart. As far as upside goes, though, I would take the Mariners and Morales/Montero over at least the Yankees and Rays DH situations (well, nevermind).
#8 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Luke Scott 420 .239 .313 .436 .321 4.2 -0.7 0.0 0.7
Evan Longoria 140 .270 .366 .508 .370 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
Shelley Duncan 105 .226 .312 .400 .311 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Stephen Vogt 35 .243 .293 .378 .293 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .243 .323 .442 .328 11.0 -0.8 0.0 1.7
Do not let the nearness to superiority of the Yankees fool you: The Rays DH situation is almost certainly worse than the Bombers’. Tampa Bay’s own Injury Gravity Machine never hit like New York’s, and he has already struggled with Spring Training injuries. The Rays, however, do have a better Injured Third Baseman situation. Evan Longoria is healthy and ready to start the season. He figures to get some DH playing time as the team limits Luke Scott‘s exposure against lefties and limits Longoria’s innings the field. The Rays have a plethora of infielders who can allow Longo to shift to DH with little lost defensively (and offensively, when Ryan Roberts or Sean Rodriguez replace Scott against lefties).
But if the Rays opt to just fully rest Longoria rather than DH him throughout the season (and who would fault them in preserving their Great Investment?), then Scott’s replacement becomes Shelley Duncan (whom the Rays have given a heavier bat; maybe that means something?) and/or Chris Gimenez (who has not been terrible against lefties in his career; maybe that means something?). The team also likes lefties Stephen Vogt and Leslie Anderson, the latter having impressed in Spring Training, but these are risky options with a capital, bold, 32-point font “R.”
#9 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Pena 455 .212 .340 .419 .331 6.6 -1.1 0.0 1.0
Chris Carter 175 .242 .330 .463 .341 3.9 -0.2 0.0 0.5
Nate Freiman 70 .245 .301 .393 .301 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .223 .334 .427 .331 9.8 -1.4 0.0 1.5
Tropicana Field discourages left-handed HR power. Carlos Pena‘s new orange juice home, Minute Maid Park, encourages home runs for lefties. Pena, however, has never been primarily a DH and the transition might, should hurt his numbers. If the Astros swap him and Brett Wallace to keep each a little more fresh, maybe the DH penalty dulls a bit, but DH production likely slips as Wallace’s offense is not quite Pena’s. At least not yet.
Pena enters the 2013 season hoping to rebound from a career-worst, sub-Mendoza, sub-100-wRC+, sub-acceptable offensive season. Steamer and ZiPS expect a rebound from Pena, but at age-35, the slugging first baseman may receive his final regular plate appearances as a member of the Astros — however long that tenure will last.
Chris Carter in left field will likely supply the NotGraphs crew with new, voluptuous GIF opportunities. It makes sense he will thereby get playing time at DH, especially seeing as how Pena never hit lefties well. Nate Freiman, also a righty, is a Rule 5 draft pick who could conceivably turn a few heads with his low-strikeout, high-power approach, but rookies who never reached Triple-A are a tough sell for ZiPS and Steamer.
Considering the Astros front office had to build a DH group from scratch, the team has done quite well for themselves.
#10 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Seth Smith 350 .245 .330 .419 .323 3.2 -0.3 0.0 0.6
Josh Reddick 140 .242 .304 .437 .316 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Yoenis Cespedes 140 .278 .345 .466 .349 4.2 -0.1 0.0 0.6
Jed Lowrie 70 .250 .330 .418 .325 0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .252 .328 .432 .327 8.7 -0.5 0.0 1.5
Seth Smith will platoon at DH and should fare well, better, perhaps, than the projection systems anticipate. And count me among those (Bill James, Oliver, and fan projections included) who anticipate Josh Reddick‘s OBP, BABIP, and, therefore, wOBA to improve in 2013 (though perhaps not to the degree of those more optimistic projection systems).
Yoenis Cespedes, 27, and Reddick, 26, are both young and entering their second full seasons as starters. Smith, 30, is more weathered, but altogether this DH/OF trio is young, exciting, and better positioned than, though mathematically inferior to, more than one of the teams ranked above of them.
#11 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mark Reynolds 490 .219 .330 .435 .332 8.4 -0.8 0.0 1.2
Jason Giambi 175 .214 .328 .365 .307 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.0
Carlos Santana 35 .249 .367 .442 .350 1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .219 .331 .418 .327 9.0 -1.5 0.0 1.4
Mark Reynolds dropped under 30 home runs in 2012, the first his totals dipped that far since 2008, and his offense as a whole slouched from his previous season’s production. Renyolds posted his first sub-30% strikeout rate, but it came with only a .335 wOBA. Our hybrid projections have him doing little different in 2013.
The Indians also signed roaming late-career ghost-of-a-bat Jason Giambi. I would like to imagine Giambi’s bat would offer more than just a .307 wOBA, but considering he has only one season above 100 wRC+ over the last four years, I must accept this is quite possibly the final stop for the nostalgic slugger.
#12 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam Dunn 595 .209 .337 .440 .337 7.2 -1.8 0.0 1.1
Dayan Viciedo 70 .266 .319 .446 .329 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Paul Konerko 35 .281 .362 .481 .359 1.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .219 .337 .443 .337 8.6 -2.0 0.0 1.3
Again, in the White Sox, we have a DH position that I — in my fiery, beating heart — prefer in real life, but in the Projection Systems Life, we must confront Dunn’s increasing strikeout rate, decreasing OBP — his startling 2011 season, his underwhelming 2012 bounce-back (an un-Dunnian 114 wRC+) — the ticking clock of Dunn’s career, the tick tock.
Dunn is 33 with a skillset that ages poorly, and his most likely backup — defensive liability Dayan Viciedo — has yet to prove himself against righties. This is not a bad DH situation for the White Sox, but it is not above the DH crowd.
#13 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Travis Hafner 385 .254 .349 .445 .343 7.4 -1.0 0.0 1.0
Brennan Boesch 210 .257 .313 .413 .313 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
Juan Rivera 70 .254 .310 .403 .307 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Alex Rodriguez 35 .254 .338 .421 .331 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .255 .334 .429 .330 6.2 -1.2 0.0 1.1
The Yankees are entering an unlit future, this 2013 season. Every player on the roster is injured, like, twice, and the only healthy person — he’s not healthy — is Travis Hafner — he’s probably been injured by time of publication. The Pronk Fella has not crossed above the 500 PA mark since 2007 — George W. Bush was president; Michael Jackson was alive; it was different era, that 661 PA year.
Despite the steady unhealthiness, Pronkfner can hit. And in New York, he will probably receive a courtesy home run per game (his home, left-handed HR park factor improves 16 points, or about a 32% increase in raw home run likelihood, by joining the Yankees). Behind him, the Yankees will likely roll the dice with recently-acquired Brennan Boesch*. There are worse gambles, but gamble it is nonetheless. And in case of emergency, the Yankees can pour a little Quad-A into the DH cistern. Juan Rivera or Dan Johnson can enter the equation, hit a fastball 10,000 miles, and then record 20 consecutive outs against breaking pitches. Everyone has a talent.
* Since the original publication, the Yankees have revealed intentions to play La Shortstop here, that Derek Jeter guy, but since his projections (.316 wOBA) differ little from Boesch’s (.313 wOBA), forgive me for leaving this lone historical artifact here.
Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez, if he ever plays for the Yankees again, will probably smack of a few homers, but only as many as a possible late-season cameo will allow.
#14 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Doumit 455 .260 .319 .414 .314 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.3
Justin Morneau 175 .265 .342 .447 .337 3.2 -0.4 0.0 0.4
Chris Parmelee 70 .255 .332 .407 .321 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .260 .326 .421 .321 3.6 -1.5 0.0 0.8
Ryan Doumit has a career .336 wOBA and 106 wRC+. In 2012, catchers — Doumit is sort of a catcher — averaged .312 wOBA and 95 wRC+. Over the last decade, catchers have around a 90 wRC+. For a catcher (or, a “catcher”), Ryan Doumit hits well.
Designated hitters had a .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ in 2012. They tend to average a bit over 110 wRC+. If Doumit hits to his career numbers, hey!, that’s not bad DH production. In fact, sure, it’s fine, whatever. If he slumps into his less-glowing ZiPS and Steamer projection numbers? Well, as the No. 14 ranking suggests, that’s the good enough for this bottom tier.
If Justin Morneau can have another healthy season, albeit split between first and here at DH, the Twins will profit from it. But given Morneau’s .330 wOBA in 2012, maybe the best of Morneau has already been concussed away, which is a bummer for the Twins and for baseball.
#15 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Wilson Betemit 525 .248 .320 .423 .321 0.8 -1.1 0.0 0.4
Nolan Reimold 140 .250 .330 .430 .329 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
Chris Davis 35 .259 .317 .473 .336 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .249 .322 .427 .323 2.4 -1.2 0.0 0.7
In 2006, Wilson Betemit had 412 PA and hit .336 wOBA and 100 wRC+ with the Braves and Dodgers. That was the most faith any team — or, in this case, two teams — put in Wilson Betemit. The next-most playing time he ever received was with the 2012 Orioles. He got 376 PA and posted a .324 wOBA and 101 wRC+.
Our best guess has Buck Showalter playing Betemit enough to cross the 500 PA milestone for the first time, albeit against righties only. Could this more-steady playing time help him find a rhythm above his career .336 wOBA and 105 wRC+? Maybe, but few projection systems like age-31 Betemit, and they like injury-torn Nolan Reimold — the logical choice for Betemit’s platoon partner — only slightly more.
NOTE: Some have protested the Betemit playing time, and rightfully so. But since our projections have Chris Davis getting ~600 PA at first base, it leaves little flexibility to put him here at DH. This is our best, cumulative guess: Betemit in a platoon, getting regular platoon playing time. As happens, we may be wrong.
ALSO NOTE: Fielding numbers did not factor into the designated hitter WAR calculations. They are shown for reference only.
ALSO ALSO NOTE: Somehow, inexorably, certain readers have used this DH post as a launching point for complaints about the designated hitter rule, as though the uninspiring WAR totals made for a compelling case in favor of watching Matt Garza strike out on three pitches. But the DH position has a vastly different baseline than your typical hitter. Also, because their fielding ability has no contribution outlet, they are limited only to their batting and base-running contributions.
In 2012, DHs added 220.4 hitting runs and -53.8 base-running runs. Pitchers added -792.1 batting and -34.3 base-running runs. WHAT NOW, BRO!?
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In all this fun, however, it is important to remember the function of our list. As we are wont to do at FanGraphs, we have attempted to make our lists in the most clinical, mathematical and unbiased ways as possible. Whereas many MLB power rankings are based on gut judgements or broad, basic analyses, we have computed a scientific power ranking system that requires human input only when it is an improvement over an algorithm.
This means, however, the space between each team is discrete. The distance between No. 1 and No. 2 is much greater than, as you will see, between No. 13 and No. 14:
Two are clustered near the top, others are rounding errors apart, and two teams appear clustered near the bottom. But an ordinal ranking does not represent that accurately.
And even despite our best utilization of projection systems and playing time predictions, the season is unpredictable. Not just hard to predict, but unpredictable. If it weren’t, who would watch it? But as of now, as of our best playing time estimations, as of the best projection systems, this is how the DH world settles. This is how the big and sluggerish stand.
Without further ado, I present the Slow and Sluggering Show:
#1 Red Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
David Ortiz 455 .286 .382 .534 .386 23.2 -2.1 0.0 2.6
Jonny Gomes 105 .241 .339 .430 .334 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Mike Napoli 70 .249 .348 .477 .353 1.8 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Mike Carp 35 .243 .316 .402 .311 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Daniel Nava 35 .249 .340 .384 .319 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .271 .367 .498 .367 25.6 -2.3 0.0 3.0
It is hard to expect 600 or more plate appearances from David Ortiz. He will be 37 in the 2013 season and had an injury-clipped 2012 campaign, but all the same, his bat could not appear any younger. In 2011 at age 35, he seemingly reinvented his approach, cutting his strikeout rate beneath a 14% K-rate for the first time in his career. And then in 2012, through 383 PA, he mustered another sub-14% K-rate and struck out less than he walked for only the third time in his career.
When talking DH, the conversation is Ortiz and the field. His proven, steady productivity puts the Red Sox on a special tier. And if he struggles again with health, his backup should be Mike Napoli, who swings a bat of no little renown either, and Jonny Gomes, who abuses lefties and isn’t the worst against righties.
All told, it makes the best DH combo in the league, but by a small margin.
#2 Royals
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Billy Butler 602 .296 .369 .484 .363 23.0 -2.1 0.0 2.7
Salvador Perez 35 .284 .320 .423 .320 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Eric Hosmer 35 .274 .342 .441 .337 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
Jeff Francoeur 28 .257 .310 .410 .307 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .293 .363 .476 .358 23.5 -2.2 0.0 2.8
The Royals rank No. 2 here, and here we also conclude our first cluster. Both Kansas City and the Red Sox feature enviable DH situations. On the merit of Billy “Country Breakfast” Butler’s durability, the Big KC earns a better projection than the otherwise impressive Rangers DH situation. Butler has averaged more than 670 PA during the last four seasons (and 600 PA as a DH over the last two seasons). Entering his physical peak (age-27 season), he should continue the same.
Butler had a filthy .373 OBP and .510 SLG, good for 140 wRC+ in 2012, but the duo of Steamer and ZiPS sees him regressing to a .369 OBP and .484 SLG. Behind the Great Morning Meal, the Royals do not have obvious DH types. The dropoff here could be much greater than in Texas, but it is nonetheless dandy to have a catcher in Salvador Perez who enters the season with a career 119 wRC+ and who could benefit from a few DH days to keep his catcher parts fresh. When Perez takes a spin at DH on days Butler is at first or taking a breather, the change in offense production should be neatly, though not perfectly, contained. The projection systems also forecast a solid season for Eric Hosmer, which could mitigate potential production losses if Butler succumbs to the unforeseen.
#3 Rangers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Lance Berkman 525 .268 .378 .481 .367 17.4 -0.9 0.0 2.2
Mike Olt 70 .244 .327 .424 .325 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
A.J. Pierzynski 21 .274 .315 .429 .319 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Geovany Soto 21 .234 .320 .418 .319 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ian Kinsler 21 .265 .348 .443 .344 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Adrian Beltre 21 .296 .340 .515 .362 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
Nelson Cruz 21 .265 .327 .483 .345 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .265 .366 .472 .358 18.5 -1.0 0.0 2.4
On pure hitting talent, I would take Lance Berkman over Billy Butler (career 146 wRC+ versus 121 wRC+). But Berkman is aged, post-injured, and on the aging slope’s slippery side. He also will be paying the DH penalty for the first time since his abbreviated Yankees tenure (where he posted a 91 wRC+ through 123 PA). He clobbered expectations in 2011 with the second-best offensive season of his career (163 wRC+), but projecting him for beyond 500 PA in 2013 requires uncommon faith in his 37-year-old frame.
A.J. Pierzynski, Geovany Soto, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz can and will probably log some DH plate appearances for Texas, but the surest bet behind the freshly-rehabbed, not-young Berkman is fresh and young corner infielder Michael Olt, who should offer, if nothing else, some power. If Texas is feeling frisky, they might summon Jurickson Profar and play Musical DH in an eventual Berkman absence. Either way, the Rangers have a wealth of options that, despite even Berkman’s question-mark-shaped health, puts them in the no man’s land between the top tier and the rounding-error cluster.
#4 Angels
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mark Trumbo 350 .261 .312 .476 .335 7.1 -0.4 0.0 1.0
Albert Pujols 105 .293 .373 .539 .378 5.8 -0.1 0.0 0.7
Vernon Wells 105 .248 .297 .439 .316 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Hank Conger 70 .250 .313 .383 .302 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Josh Hamilton 35 .273 .340 .494 .351 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
Chris Iannetta 35 .226 .338 .388 .319 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .262 .322 .467 .335 14.4 -0.6 0.0 2.1
“What’s wrong with the Angels?” you ask. I don’t know. I like the Angels. I like Mark Trumbo. In fact, I fully expect Trumbo to manage a wOBA above .345 in his age-27 season. I would not be surprised to see a .325 OBP or higher. I would rank the Angels higher.
But, here’s the deal: I am not an emotionless projection system, hardened into calculated wisdom. I’m a fickle, emotional human thing. I like Trumbo, you might too, but Steamer and ZiPS agree: He’s a touch better than Adam Lind.
And since he possess defensive flexibility (flexibility without acumen, albeit), he will likely spell Albert Pujols, Vernon Wells, and few others. Ceding DH plate appearances to Pujols? Sure. Cool. It only helps. Ceding PAs to Vernon Wells? Not so cool. The net result? Let’s just say: The opportunity cost of rostering Vernon Wells increases; it edges skyward like bubbling Kilauea, biding time, collecting paychecks, steadily not playing great baseball — I’m talking about Vernon Wells, but some of this might apply to Kilauea too. Never been.
#5 Tigers
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Victor Martinez 525 .289 .351 .442 .340 9.6 -1.2 0.0 1.3
Andy Dirks 70 .274 .324 .421 .322 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Prince Fielder 35 .288 .404 .512 .386 1.9 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Miguel Cabrera 35 .317 .403 .568 .405 2.5 -0.1 0.0 0.3
Torii Hunter 35 .279 .342 .433 .335 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .288 .353 .449 .344 14.8 -1.3 0.0 2.0
The Detroit Tigers have perhaps the most curious DH conundrum. Their ranking, like most any other rankings here, relates directly with the hitter on the top of the depth chart; but unlike the other DH groups, the less of Victor Martinez, the better this group does. Martinez, coming off an entirely lost 2012 campaign, will be 34 in 2013. His offensive projections are solid, if not great.
But his backups? Pitch Killers and Twirl Torturers. Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera, the most likely to pick up the slack from an injured Martinez, only improve the projected offense for the Tigers DH position. Andy Dirks will probably get some playing time here too, which does not add much in the way thrilling offense, but a long-term injury to Martinez might result in more Fielder and Cabrera.
Without Martinez, the Tigers are a worse team. Nobody in Michigan wants a Martinez injury. But with less Martinez, the DH production improves as playing time cedes to a pair of other-worldly hitters. If Fielders gets 100 or 200 PA here, the Tigers DH slot pushes for No. 4 or No. 3 in this power ranking. Such is the nature of rankings, I guess.
#6 Blue Jays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam Lind 420 .262 .321 .449 .329 4.5 -0.7 0.0 0.8
Edwin Encarnacion 70 .269 .359 .498 .364 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
Melky Cabrera 70 .290 .342 .446 .337 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
Rajai Davis 70 .259 .308 .369 .295 -1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Jose Bautista 70 .266 .393 .545 .396 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
Total 700 .265 .333 .454 .337 11.6 -0.4 0.0 1.8
Adam Lind is not what we think when we think, “Sixth best DH in the league,” and there’s a reason for that: He’s not the 6th best DH in the league. But since he has no business hitting against lefties, and since Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have a multi-million dollar, international, blue-power-suit-wearing business hitting lefties, and since the latter two cannot — by Canadian law — rest against left-handed starting pitchers (especially given the lefty-soaked rotations of the AL East), these gentlemen — Mr. Bautista and Mr. Encarnacion — will elevate the otherwise uninspiring, Lind-led Blue Jays DH position.
Add to this potent duo: Melky Cabrera, upon whom shine the projection systems (oblivious in their digital, cold magnanimity to the implications, the possibilities, the doubts of a failed PED test). Can Melky, entering only his age-28 season, sustain his new BABIP level, begun in 2011, begun before The Failed Tests?
Questions like these and names like “Lind,” help illustrate why, despite ranking just two spots beneath the Rangers, the Blue Jays at No. 6 are further down the list than ordinal ranking suggests.
#7 Mariners
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Kendrys Morales 525 .263 .323 .455 .333 11.5 -2.1 0.0 1.4
Jesus Montero 140 .265 .318 .426 .319 1.4 -0.3 0.0 0.2
Raul Ibanez 35 .241 .304 .400 .301 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .262 .321 .446 .329 12.7 -2.4 0.0 1.7
Kendrys Morales has been a switch hitter in name only throughout his career. Against southpaws, he owns an 84 wRC+, but we would be remiss to note that’s just 392 PA — with a .266 BABIP, which may or may not mean anything. Moreover, his minor league splits never seemed particularly one-sided.
Either way, Morales, Jesus Montero and tumbleweed Raul Ibanez will split the DH role (as Morales will get some playing time at first). ZiPS (.308 wOBA) is the most pessimistic about Montero, but Steamer (.326 wOBA) and the others (all above .333 wOBA) predict a better sophomore campaign for the 23-year-old catcher.
The net result should be about the same as any other team from No. 6 all the way down to No. 12. This whole middle tier is a week of hot or cold BABIP apart. As far as upside goes, though, I would take the Mariners and Morales/Montero over at least the Yankees and Rays DH situations (well, nevermind).
#8 Rays
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Luke Scott 420 .239 .313 .436 .321 4.2 -0.7 0.0 0.7
Evan Longoria 140 .270 .366 .508 .370 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
Shelley Duncan 105 .226 .312 .400 .311 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Stephen Vogt 35 .243 .293 .378 .293 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .243 .323 .442 .328 11.0 -0.8 0.0 1.7
Do not let the nearness to superiority of the Yankees fool you: The Rays DH situation is almost certainly worse than the Bombers’. Tampa Bay’s own Injury Gravity Machine never hit like New York’s, and he has already struggled with Spring Training injuries. The Rays, however, do have a better Injured Third Baseman situation. Evan Longoria is healthy and ready to start the season. He figures to get some DH playing time as the team limits Luke Scott‘s exposure against lefties and limits Longoria’s innings the field. The Rays have a plethora of infielders who can allow Longo to shift to DH with little lost defensively (and offensively, when Ryan Roberts or Sean Rodriguez replace Scott against lefties).
But if the Rays opt to just fully rest Longoria rather than DH him throughout the season (and who would fault them in preserving their Great Investment?), then Scott’s replacement becomes Shelley Duncan (whom the Rays have given a heavier bat; maybe that means something?) and/or Chris Gimenez (who has not been terrible against lefties in his career; maybe that means something?). The team also likes lefties Stephen Vogt and Leslie Anderson, the latter having impressed in Spring Training, but these are risky options with a capital, bold, 32-point font “R.”
#9 Astros
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Pena 455 .212 .340 .419 .331 6.6 -1.1 0.0 1.0
Chris Carter 175 .242 .330 .463 .341 3.9 -0.2 0.0 0.5
Nate Freiman 70 .245 .301 .393 .301 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .223 .334 .427 .331 9.8 -1.4 0.0 1.5
Tropicana Field discourages left-handed HR power. Carlos Pena‘s new orange juice home, Minute Maid Park, encourages home runs for lefties. Pena, however, has never been primarily a DH and the transition might, should hurt his numbers. If the Astros swap him and Brett Wallace to keep each a little more fresh, maybe the DH penalty dulls a bit, but DH production likely slips as Wallace’s offense is not quite Pena’s. At least not yet.
Pena enters the 2013 season hoping to rebound from a career-worst, sub-Mendoza, sub-100-wRC+, sub-acceptable offensive season. Steamer and ZiPS expect a rebound from Pena, but at age-35, the slugging first baseman may receive his final regular plate appearances as a member of the Astros — however long that tenure will last.
Chris Carter in left field will likely supply the NotGraphs crew with new, voluptuous GIF opportunities. It makes sense he will thereby get playing time at DH, especially seeing as how Pena never hit lefties well. Nate Freiman, also a righty, is a Rule 5 draft pick who could conceivably turn a few heads with his low-strikeout, high-power approach, but rookies who never reached Triple-A are a tough sell for ZiPS and Steamer.
Considering the Astros front office had to build a DH group from scratch, the team has done quite well for themselves.
#10 Athletics
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Seth Smith 350 .245 .330 .419 .323 3.2 -0.3 0.0 0.6
Josh Reddick 140 .242 .304 .437 .316 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Yoenis Cespedes 140 .278 .345 .466 .349 4.2 -0.1 0.0 0.6
Jed Lowrie 70 .250 .330 .418 .325 0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .252 .328 .432 .327 8.7 -0.5 0.0 1.5
Seth Smith will platoon at DH and should fare well, better, perhaps, than the projection systems anticipate. And count me among those (Bill James, Oliver, and fan projections included) who anticipate Josh Reddick‘s OBP, BABIP, and, therefore, wOBA to improve in 2013 (though perhaps not to the degree of those more optimistic projection systems).
Yoenis Cespedes, 27, and Reddick, 26, are both young and entering their second full seasons as starters. Smith, 30, is more weathered, but altogether this DH/OF trio is young, exciting, and better positioned than, though mathematically inferior to, more than one of the teams ranked above of them.
#11 Indians
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mark Reynolds 490 .219 .330 .435 .332 8.4 -0.8 0.0 1.2
Jason Giambi 175 .214 .328 .365 .307 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.0
Carlos Santana 35 .249 .367 .442 .350 1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .219 .331 .418 .327 9.0 -1.5 0.0 1.4
Mark Reynolds dropped under 30 home runs in 2012, the first his totals dipped that far since 2008, and his offense as a whole slouched from his previous season’s production. Renyolds posted his first sub-30% strikeout rate, but it came with only a .335 wOBA. Our hybrid projections have him doing little different in 2013.
The Indians also signed roaming late-career ghost-of-a-bat Jason Giambi. I would like to imagine Giambi’s bat would offer more than just a .307 wOBA, but considering he has only one season above 100 wRC+ over the last four years, I must accept this is quite possibly the final stop for the nostalgic slugger.
#12 White Sox
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam Dunn 595 .209 .337 .440 .337 7.2 -1.8 0.0 1.1
Dayan Viciedo 70 .266 .319 .446 .329 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Paul Konerko 35 .281 .362 .481 .359 1.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .219 .337 .443 .337 8.6 -2.0 0.0 1.3
Again, in the White Sox, we have a DH position that I — in my fiery, beating heart — prefer in real life, but in the Projection Systems Life, we must confront Dunn’s increasing strikeout rate, decreasing OBP — his startling 2011 season, his underwhelming 2012 bounce-back (an un-Dunnian 114 wRC+) — the ticking clock of Dunn’s career, the tick tock.
Dunn is 33 with a skillset that ages poorly, and his most likely backup — defensive liability Dayan Viciedo — has yet to prove himself against righties. This is not a bad DH situation for the White Sox, but it is not above the DH crowd.
#13 Yankees
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Travis Hafner 385 .254 .349 .445 .343 7.4 -1.0 0.0 1.0
Brennan Boesch 210 .257 .313 .413 .313 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
Juan Rivera 70 .254 .310 .403 .307 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Alex Rodriguez 35 .254 .338 .421 .331 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .255 .334 .429 .330 6.2 -1.2 0.0 1.1
The Yankees are entering an unlit future, this 2013 season. Every player on the roster is injured, like, twice, and the only healthy person — he’s not healthy — is Travis Hafner — he’s probably been injured by time of publication. The Pronk Fella has not crossed above the 500 PA mark since 2007 — George W. Bush was president; Michael Jackson was alive; it was different era, that 661 PA year.
Despite the steady unhealthiness, Pronkfner can hit. And in New York, he will probably receive a courtesy home run per game (his home, left-handed HR park factor improves 16 points, or about a 32% increase in raw home run likelihood, by joining the Yankees). Behind him, the Yankees will likely roll the dice with recently-acquired Brennan Boesch*. There are worse gambles, but gamble it is nonetheless. And in case of emergency, the Yankees can pour a little Quad-A into the DH cistern. Juan Rivera or Dan Johnson can enter the equation, hit a fastball 10,000 miles, and then record 20 consecutive outs against breaking pitches. Everyone has a talent.
* Since the original publication, the Yankees have revealed intentions to play La Shortstop here, that Derek Jeter guy, but since his projections (.316 wOBA) differ little from Boesch’s (.313 wOBA), forgive me for leaving this lone historical artifact here.
Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez, if he ever plays for the Yankees again, will probably smack of a few homers, but only as many as a possible late-season cameo will allow.
#14 Twins
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Doumit 455 .260 .319 .414 .314 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.3
Justin Morneau 175 .265 .342 .447 .337 3.2 -0.4 0.0 0.4
Chris Parmelee 70 .255 .332 .407 .321 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .260 .326 .421 .321 3.6 -1.5 0.0 0.8
Ryan Doumit has a career .336 wOBA and 106 wRC+. In 2012, catchers — Doumit is sort of a catcher — averaged .312 wOBA and 95 wRC+. Over the last decade, catchers have around a 90 wRC+. For a catcher (or, a “catcher”), Ryan Doumit hits well.
Designated hitters had a .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ in 2012. They tend to average a bit over 110 wRC+. If Doumit hits to his career numbers, hey!, that’s not bad DH production. In fact, sure, it’s fine, whatever. If he slumps into his less-glowing ZiPS and Steamer projection numbers? Well, as the No. 14 ranking suggests, that’s the good enough for this bottom tier.
If Justin Morneau can have another healthy season, albeit split between first and here at DH, the Twins will profit from it. But given Morneau’s .330 wOBA in 2012, maybe the best of Morneau has already been concussed away, which is a bummer for the Twins and for baseball.
#15 Orioles
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Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Wilson Betemit 525 .248 .320 .423 .321 0.8 -1.1 0.0 0.4
Nolan Reimold 140 .250 .330 .430 .329 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
Chris Davis 35 .259 .317 .473 .336 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .249 .322 .427 .323 2.4 -1.2 0.0 0.7
In 2006, Wilson Betemit had 412 PA and hit .336 wOBA and 100 wRC+ with the Braves and Dodgers. That was the most faith any team — or, in this case, two teams — put in Wilson Betemit. The next-most playing time he ever received was with the 2012 Orioles. He got 376 PA and posted a .324 wOBA and 101 wRC+.
Our best guess has Buck Showalter playing Betemit enough to cross the 500 PA milestone for the first time, albeit against righties only. Could this more-steady playing time help him find a rhythm above his career .336 wOBA and 105 wRC+? Maybe, but few projection systems like age-31 Betemit, and they like injury-torn Nolan Reimold — the logical choice for Betemit’s platoon partner — only slightly more.
NOTE: Some have protested the Betemit playing time, and rightfully so. But since our projections have Chris Davis getting ~600 PA at first base, it leaves little flexibility to put him here at DH. This is our best, cumulative guess: Betemit in a platoon, getting regular platoon playing time. As happens, we may be wrong.
ALSO NOTE: Fielding numbers did not factor into the designated hitter WAR calculations. They are shown for reference only.
ALSO ALSO NOTE: Somehow, inexorably, certain readers have used this DH post as a launching point for complaints about the designated hitter rule, as though the uninspiring WAR totals made for a compelling case in favor of watching Matt Garza strike out on three pitches. But the DH position has a vastly different baseline than your typical hitter. Also, because their fielding ability has no contribution outlet, they are limited only to their batting and base-running contributions.
In 2012, DHs added 220.4 hitting runs and -53.8 base-running runs. Pitchers added -792.1 batting and -34.3 base-running runs. WHAT NOW, BRO!?
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