2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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ii FLaSh ii said:
My man :pimp: He's a beast!

I'm tired of missing Braves games... Think I'm just gonna suxk it up and get the package
Click to expand...

Get mlb.tv....it's def worth it.

I was in Atlanta for the weekend Saturday vs the Giants and witnessed an amazing comeback by the Braves. Sergio Romo had the bases loaded for us following a Justin Upton RBI walk. Then Freddie came and won the game for us with a walkoff hit. He has been very good, especially in 2-out situations.
 
ii FLaSh ii said:
My man :pimp: He's a beast!

I'm tired of missing Braves games... Think I'm just gonna suxk it up and get the package
Click to expand...

If the Braves are your local team, getting mlb.TV isn't worth it because the games will most likely be blacked out. I live in S. Florida so it works out for me (to see ATL play). Watch the games on the tablet or XBOX. Have only missed 4 games so far.
 
I live in NY so its not a problem about games being blacked out...

Any promotions on the mlb.TV? I believe its at $99.99 now for the year... Going to call DTV also to see what they offer
 
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Cingrani. :lol: :smokin

700
 
:rofl:

Matt Harvey throwing the ball to first base and no one was there. Hilarious. Even though it wasn't Matt's fault.


Damn, that was the first hit of the game
 
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ii FLaSh ii said:
I live in NY so its not a problem about games being blacked out...

Any promotions on the mlb.TV? I believe its at $99.99 now for the year... Going to call DTV also to see what they offer
Click to expand...
Not sure of the price... I got mine comped by a dude from MLB.com
 
smh.. this was supposed to be an easy sweep of the Muts...

at home, they suck, top of our rotation.... Muts pitchers been throwing that gas tho.
 
Ballerific703 said:
:rofl:

Matt Harvey throwing the ball to first base and no one was there. Hilarious. Even though it wasn't Matt's fault.


Damn, that was the first hit of the game
Click to expand...

Duda tried to field the ball as well but was way too slow to run back, Harvey just lobbed it hoping someone would be there.

Harvey career high 13 strikeouts, only his 25th start :pimp:
 
ii FLaSh ii said:
I live in NY so its not a problem about games being blacked out...

Any promotions on the mlb.TV? I believe its at $99.99 now for the year... Going to call DTV also to see what they offer
Click to expand...

$100 and it comes with that app to watch and listen on your phone.

It was $50 last week for Father's Day.
 
ChampCruThik said:
Scherzer and Anibal have definitely been dealing for Detroit. But it will take more than half a season to convince me.
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Probably with those two, but to me, Fister is a guy who can be relied on for the whole season. The guy always flies under the radar, but he's more than a solid pitcher. Detroit could have a very strong rotation going into the playoffs.
 
If Detriot had anything that resembled a good reliable bullpen, they would hands down be the best team in baseball.
 
The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects.

The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced in April) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to this exercise, of course, is a working definition of fringe. Currently, for the purposes of this column, it’s any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists. (A slightly more robust meditation on the idea of fringe can be found here.)

Two players retain their place this week among the Five: young Philadelphia third-base prospect Maikel Franco and Cardinals Double-A outfielder Mike O’Neill.

Departing from the Five proper — mostly for reasons that concern the author’s Whim — are Cubs shortstop prospect Arismendy Alcantara, Mets right-hander (the recently promoted) Rafael Montero, and Washington left-hander Robbie Ray.

Replacing that triumvirate are well-educated Mets pitching prospect Matthew Bowman, Pirates right-hander (and also recently promoted) Nick Kingham, and Athletics first-base prospect Max Muncy — about all of whom one can learn more via technicolor prose in this week’s installment of the Fringe Five, below.

Matthew Bowman, RHP, New York NL (Profile)
Because, for the purposes of compiling the Five, the author typically limits his attention to the three highest levels of minor-league ball, the 22-year-old Bowman has only recently become “eligible” for this column, as it were. After recording a 26:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.2 innings in the Class-A Sally League, Bowman has now pitched 44.0 innings in the High-A Florida State League and posted strikeout and walk figures (47:9 K:BB) among the league’s best. Nor do Bowman’s excellent numbers represent all that is Rich and Compelling so far as his CV is concerned. Bowman is also an alumnus (or, at least, near-alumnus) of shockingly prestigious Princeton University. Furthermore, he’s found considerable success by utilizing mechanics which resemble those belonging to a certain undersized Giants right-hander.

To wit (from this longer feature):



Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia (Profile)
In four games since the last edition of the Five, Franco posted even better figures than those which had earned him a place here in each of the previous two weeks. Over 19 plate appearances for High-A Clearwater of the Florida State League, Franco recorded a 3:2 walk-to-strikeout ratio while hitting three home runs — nor do those totals include the home run Franco added last (Tuesday) night, either. By the author’s likely flawed methodology, Franco’s 15 home runs and 20:39 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 283 plate appearances appear to be almost equivalent in terms of what might be called “true-talent production” as very celebrated (and recently promoted) Twins prospect Miguel Sano’s 16 home runs and 29:61 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 243 plate appearances. Franco’s home park has likely benefited his home-run figures, but his season is impressive even with the adjustments — especially relative to his prospect status at the beginning of the year.

Nick Kingham, RHP, Pittsburgh (Profile)
After recording more or less the best regressed pitching numbers among Florida State League starters, the 21-year-old Kingham earned a promotion to Double-A Altoona last week. In his debut against Yankees affiliate the Trenton Thunder, Kingham posted a 7:2 strikeout-to-walk in 5.2 innings, conceding just four hits and also zero runs. In that start, Kingham sat at ca. 92 mph with his fastball while also throwing a curveball and occasional changeup.


Max Muncy, 1B, Oakland (Profile)
It’s very possible — owing to how he’s not entirely young (22) relative to the level and also because of his positional limitations and also because of the inflated run-scoring environment of his park — it’s very possible that Muncy won’t appear among the Five again in the near future. That said, his season deserves some attention. Utilizing the flawed methodology cited above with regard to Maikel Franco, Muncy — who’s recorded 18 home runs and a 49:46 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 326 plate appearances — has produced the best regressed offensive line by some margin among California League Batters. In fact, were he to have hit just half as many home runs, he’d still have the top regressed line among all Cal League batters aged 22 or less.


Mike O’Neill, COF, St. Louis (Profile)
Including Tuesday’s night’s game at home versus Rockies Double-A affiliate Tulsa, O’Neill has recorded 38 consecutive plate appearances without a strikeout. What else he’s done during those 38 plate appearances is walk six times, hit a home run, and slash .313/.421/.469 despite a relatively ordinary .290 BABIP. For the season now, O’Neill has a 48:17 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 288 plate appearances, for walk and strikeout rates of 16.7% and 5.9%, respectively.

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Arismendy Alcantara, SS, Chicago NL (Double-A Southern League)
Wilmer Flores, 2B, New York NL (Triple-Pacific Coast League)
Rafael Montero, RHP, New York NL (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Robbie Ray, LHP, Washington (High-A Carolina League)
Danny Salazar, RHP, Cleveland (Triple-A International League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here are all the players to have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season. For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.


Name Team POS FF NF PTS
Mike O’Neill Cardinals OF 9 0 27
Wilmer Flores Mets 2B 7 2 23
Brian Flynn Marlins LHP 4 3 15
Marcus Semien White Sox SS 3 5 14
Burch Smith Padres RHP 4 1 13
Rafael Montero Mets RHP 3 3 12
Corban Joseph Yankees 2B 3 1 10
Danny Salazar Indians RHP 2 4 10
Maikel Franco Phillies 3B 3 0 9
Chase Anderson Diamondbacks RHP 2 2 8
Robbie Ray Nationals LHP 2 1 7
Max Muncy Athletics 1B 1 3 6
Ronald Torreyes Cubs 2B 1 3 6
Chad Bettis Rockies RHP 1 2 5
Joc Pederson Dodgers OF 1 2 5
Nicholas Kingham Pirates RHP 1 2 5
Arismendy Alcantara Cubs SS 1 1 4
Jose Ramirez Yankees RHP 1 1 4
Matthew Bowman Mets RHP 1 0 3
Nolan Fontana Astros SS 0 2 2
Taylor Lindsey Angels 2B 0 2 2
Victor Payano Rangers LHP 0 2 2
Brad Miller Mariners SS 0 1 1
Chris Heston Giants RHP 0 1 1
Clayton Blackburn Giants RHP 0 1 1
Garin Cecchini Red Sox 3B 0 1 1
Greg Garcia Cardinals SS 0 1 1
R.J. Seidel Brewers RHP 0 1 1
Tim ****ey Cardinals LHP 0 1 1
Zach Walters Nationals SS 0 1 1

Matt Harvey, Overwhelming.

Matt Harvey didn’t throw a no-hitter against the Braves on Tuesday, but he did almost do that, not allowing a hit until the bottom of the seventh. It’s not that Harvey relied entirely on the strikeout — of the batters he faced, 13 didn’t whiff. But then, of the batters he faced, 13 did whiff, and Harvey’s season rate is verging on 30%. Matt Harvey was already good a year ago. Since then he’s only induced more grounders and cut his walk rate in half. Harvey, at this point, is in the argument for being the most valuable young pitcher in all of baseball.

Against the Braves, Harvey registered 15 swinging strikes on secondary stuff, which is outstanding. Yet he also picked up eight whiffs on his heater, which is kind of par for the Harvey course. No other starter’s fastball has led to so many swinging strikes, as Harvey can just be completely overwhelming. Instead of just using his fastball as a foundation, Harvey uses it also as a weapon, which is a rare gift. To have a swing-and-miss fastball is to have one hell of an advantage, and though fastballs tend to get slower over time, for now, at least, Harvey’s elite.


Every Friday, here, I write about the week’s wildest pitches and the week’s wildest swings. The latter are the swings at the pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone, and they’re almost always whiffs, for reasons self-evident. Those swings are evidence of batters getting tricked. They’re just about always wild swings at offspeed pitches outside or in the dirt. I thought I’d do something similar with Matt Harvey, except the opposite. I thought I’d isolate whiffs at fastballs that were the closest to the center of the strike zone. Essentially, I isolated fastballs that were grooved, but cut on and missed anyway. What’s more overpowering than a swing-and-miss fastball in the very middle of the zone? What makes for a better show of dominance? Every pitcher, of course, will occasionally get a whiff at a grooved heater. That’s just the nature of probability. But Matt Harvey possesses a special heater, and here comes a top-five list. These are the five Harvey whiffs at fastballs closest to the middle of the zone, so far in 2013:

5

•Batter: Pedro Alvarez
•Date: May 12
•Location: 3.6 inches from center of zone

Harvey5Alvarez.gif.opt_.gif

harvey5alvarez.png


Everybody has a different strategy when it comes to first-pitch swinging. The general rule of thumb, though, is that you should swing only at pitches you think you can handle, pitches in hittable places. The first pitch of an at-bat is no time to be over-aggressive, because there’s a whole rest of the at-bat left to go. Some people go up just looking dead red, and “dead red” is a baseball term for “fastball down the middle.” If you’re swinging at a first pitch, or if you’re swinging in a hitter-friendly count, what you’d like, ideally, as a hitter, is a fastball down the middle. Alvarez swung at a fastball down the middle from Matt Harvey. He swung right through it. In a sense, the idea was good, because it was a grooved fastball. But then, how hittable is a grooved Harvey fastball?

4

•Batter: Jordan Schafer
•Date: June 18
•Location: 3.1 inches from center of zone

Harvey4Schafer.gif.opt_.gif

harvey4schafer.png


Same principle. First pitch, this time with a runner on. Schafer is no stranger to first-pitch swinging, and while that’s gotten him in trouble in the past, there’s nothing wrong with swinging at a first-pitch fastball over the heart of the plate, since you might not see a better pitch. That’s kind of part of the problem with facing Matt Harvey. Sure, you might not see a better pitch than a fastball down the middle. But that doesn’t make that a mashable fastball. It’s still a Matt Harvey fastball. It’s just that other pitches might be even more difficult. Schafer took a big hack and cut right under the baseball.

3

•Batter: Jordan Schafer
•Date: June 18
•Location: 3.1 inches from center of zone

Harvey3Schafer.gif.opt_.gif

harvey3schafer.png


Well wouldn’t you know it, but this happened to Jordan Schafer twice in consecutive plate appearances on Tuesday. In the first inning, Schafer swung through a different centered fastball, although this one came in an 0-and-1 count. Look at John Buck. Harvey, at this point, had the count in his favor. This was more or less the pitch that Buck wanted. This was a fastball over the middle of the plate. That’s how much confidence the Mets have in this pitch, and justifiably so. Schafer couldn’t catch up.

2

•Batter: Ezequiel Carrera
•Date: April 8
•Location: 3.0 inches from center of zone

Harvey2Carrera.gif.opt_.gif

harvey2carrera.png


Again, Harvey’s ahead. This time, it was a 1-and-2 count, and John Buck called for a fastball just about in the middle of the strike zone. Harvey threw a fastball just about in the middle of the strike zone, and Ezequiel Carrera swung and went away. The first two strikes of this at-bat involved Carrera swinging through consecutive Harvey fastballs. Harvey and Buck had a clue that Carrera couldn’t catch up, and so Harvey went right after him with two strikes. That’s a ballsy challenge, if diminished slightly by the fact that the score was 7-1.

1

•Batter: Carlos Quentin
•Date: April 3
•Location: 1.3 inches from center of zone

Harvey1Quentin.gif.opt_.gif

harvey1quentin.png


When you’re behind in the count, you don’t know if you’re going to see a fastball or something offspeed, which can give a good fastball something of an advantage. On the first pitch of an at-bat, you don’t necessarily want to be too aggressive, because you know you might see more and better pitches later. Here, the count was 3-and-1. Carlos Quentin is a good hitter, and he must’ve known he was probably going to see a fastball for a strike. That’s a classic fastball count, a classic hitter-friendly count, and plus the score was 8-0 so Harvey had little to lose by coming over the middle. With Quentin knowing what was coming, Harvey grooved a pitch at 93 miles per hour. Quentin swung right through it, despite everything. He seemed late, and he wound up off balance. That is, basically, a .gif of Carlos Quentin getting overpowered by Matt Harvey’s fastball. He couldn’t have asked for a better pitch in a better spot in a better count, and he couldn’t hit it. That’s not unimpressive.

Matt Harvey isn’t the only pitcher in baseball with an overpowering and overwhelming heater. He isn’t the only pitcher in baseball to rack up a ton of strikeouts, and he isn’t the only pitcher in baseball to pitch like an ace. Many pitchers get swinging strikes on fastballs over the plate, at least some of the time. But few make a habit of it quite like Harvey does, and that’s one of the reasons why Harvey’s the real deal.


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San Jose Sues MLB To Get A’s, Charges Teams Conspire To Maintain Monopoly Power In Their Markets.

After months of threats and saber-rattling, the City of San Jose sued Major League Baseball and its 30 constituent teams on Tuesday over MLB’s refusal to allow the Oakland A’s to move to San Jose.

The lawsuit, filed in federal district court in San Jose, is a direct challenge to MLB’s federal antitrust exemption. San Jose claims that MLB places unreasonable restrictions on competition by giving each team its own exclusive territory (or in the case of New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, shared territory) and veto power to prevent any other team from moving into that territory. As I explained in this FanGraphs post last September, under MLB rules, a team can move into the territory of another team only when the following conditions are met: a vote of three-fourths of the owners approving the move; the two ballparks are located at least five miles apart; the move results in no more than two teams in a single territory; and the team moving compensates the team already in the territory.

In addition to the federal antitrust claims, San Jose also charged MLB with violations of California antitrust law and with state law claims for interference with prospective economic advantage based on San Jose’s agreement to allow the A’s to buy certain parcels of city land, if the A’s plan to move is approved by the league.

You can read the lawsuit in its entirety here.

San Jose is represented by Joe Cotchett and his law firm, Cotchett, Pitre & McCarthy. Cotchett is a nationally well-known and well-regarded attorney with experience in antitrust cases. In fact, Cotchett represented the National Football League and the (former) Los Angeles Rams when the Oakland Raiders sued the league for antitrust violations in 1982 when the league voted against allowing the Raiders to move to Los Angeles. The Raiders won that lawsuit, and paved the way for other professional sports franchises to move from city to city more easily.

Except, that is, in baseball.


The United States Supreme Court granted baseball an exemption from federal antitrust laws in the 1920′s. Several cases sought to chip away at that exemption over the ensuing 90-plus years, and while it has been carved up and narrowed, the exemption remains. In the Curt Flood Act of 1998, Congress specifically overturned the antitrust exemption as it applies to labor relations; by federal statute, major league baseball players have the right to be free of collusive and monopolistic conduct by the owners and the league.

But Congress left the remainder of baseball’s antitrust exemption intact. Or did it?

There’s a good deal of debate about how to interpret what Congress did and didn’t do when it debated and enacted the Curt Flood Act. This law review article analyzes the issues quite well. The question the judge in San Jose v. MLB will have to decide is whether baseball’s federal antitrust exemption as it applies to the location and relocation of franchises survived passage of the Curt Flood Act. If the exemption applies, then the two claims against MLB charging violations of the Sherman Act (one of the federal antitrust statutes) will be dismissed.

That brings us to the state law claims.

California has its own antitrust statute, known as the Cartwright Act. It operates independent of federal antitrust laws; that is, federal law does not preempt the operation of the California statute. And that’s where things get tricky and — frankly — a bit hazy to me. Sure, I practiced law in California for 18 years but handled very few matters involving the Cartwright Act. I just don’t have enough knowledge and experience to say at this point whether this claim carries any weight even if the federal antitrust claims are blocked by baseball’s antitrust exemption.

The Cartwright Act claim is the key to all of the state law claims. San Jose alleges that MLB interfered with its option agreement with the A’s. In November, 2011, San Jose granted an option to the A’s to purchase a five-acre tract of public land for $6.9 million. The option contains two conditions: (1) no public funds shall be used in the design, construction or operation of the new ballpark; and (2) city voters must still approve the construction of the new ballpark. The option cost the A’s $25,000 per year.

That sounds pretty nebulous — how can a party interfere with an option to do something in the future? — but California law does allow plaintiffs to sue claiming that another party interfered with an expected contractual interest if the defendant engaged in otherwise illegal contract. In other words, if MLB’s conduct violated the Cartwright Act, that could be a sufficiently wrongful act on which to base a claim for interference with prospective economic advantage.

San Jose also faces considerable challenges in proving real economic damage. The lawsuit outlines all manner of economic benefits the city would purportedly receive if the A’s were permitted to move and build a new stadium downtown: constructions jobs, related economic activity, tax revenue, etc. The complaint includes as an exhibit a economic study conducted for the city which claims all manner of economic benefits from a new ballpark. But as we’ve seen time and again, these kinds of studies don’t hold up to reality when new ballparks do get built.

In truth, there is a slim chance this case ever gets to the stage where experts are battling over future economic benefits to the city.

Why?

Because MLB will do whatever it can maintain its antitrust exemption, however narrow it may now be.

The key battle in this case will come early on. MLB will undoubtedly file a motion to dismiss the case on legal grounds — before documents are handed over and witnesses are required to give sworn deposition testimony. Such motions do succeed in federal court, particularly in antitrust cases where the standards for pleading a viable legal claim are high. But this is a complicated case with complex issues. I’m just not in a position now — before any motions are filed — to say which parties have the better of the argument. It looks like San Jose is on pretty shaky ground, but if the city can get past the motion stage of the case — and into discovery — the chances for a settlement that results in the A’s moving to San Jose go up.

And at the end of the day, San Jose cares much more about getting an MLB franchise than about blowing up baseball’s antitrust exemption.


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The Fortnight – 6/18/13.

Ah, another fortnight has passed. How did you spend them? Perhaps you were deeply immersed in the Teapot Dome scandal? Perhaps you were eagerly awaiting the release of “Yeezus?” Perhaps you were simply watching the paint dry in anticipation of the next iteration of this series? I know I was doing at least one of these things.

As always, you can peep the explanation of our depth charts and standings pages — which fuel The Fortnight like so much lemon lime Gatorade — here. This week, we’ll be looking at the fortnight’s biggest losers.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Full-Season Record: 78-84, .483 (21st)
Last Fortnight: 80-82, .493 (18th)

The Dodgers and Angels annually participate in the Freeway Series, and are 2-2 against their neighbors to the south this season. But the real series that they are participating in this season is that of the most underachieving team. Both have been beset by numerous setbacks, and while many of the Dodgers’ setbacks have been of an injury nature, the faith in the boys in blue is waning. They are still one of the top 10 teams in terms of projected rest of season performance, but they lost ground there in this past fortnight as well.

This season has seen a few two steps forward, two steps back scenarios play out in Dodgertown. The most recent one, of course, is inserting Yasiel Puig in the lineup by moving Andre Ethier to center field. One of the primary components to being a good center fielder is having good range, and that is simply not something that Ethier carries around in his toolbox. Since he debuted in 2006 only 12 qualified outfielders have a worse RngR mark than does Ethier, and four of them are retired. Of course, one of the 12 is also Matt Kemp, so perhaps the Dodgers aren’t doing any worse in center field than they were before. They could be, mind you — Scott Van Slyke, who certainly seems to be a superior defender to Ethier — has started in left field in the same game in which Ethier has started in center five times.

This is just one of the ways that the Dodgers’ position players have faltered. As a unit, they are not hitting at an average rate, fielding at an average rate or running the bases at an average rate. The pitchers, even with Clayton Kershaw big pimpin’ on the entire planet, have been worse. The Angels aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders themselves, but at least as a team they’re hitting well. Right now, it’s hard to look at the Dodgers and see anything other than the most disappointing team in the game, at least relative to expectations.

Texas Rangers
Projected Full-Season Record: 90-72, .553 (5th)
Last Fortnight: 93-69, .575 (2nd)

The Rangers, on the other hand, have not disappointed at all. They have, however, slipped a little bit — three spots to be precise, same as the Dodgers. The last trip through the rotation has seen Justin Grimm, Josh Lindblom and Nick Tepesch joining Yu Darvish and Derek Holland. In other words, it’s not a good time for Derek Holland to remember that he’s Derek Holland. After allowing just 29 runs in his first 79.2 innings (3.28 RA) he has allowed eight in his last 10.1 innings (6.97). With neither Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz nor Alexi Ogando expected back any time soon, it’s going to fall on Darvish and Holland to carry the rotation. In other words, Holland needs to shake off this slump quickly. Three wins isn’t a great deal, but with the A’s showing no signs of relenting, the Rangers can’t afford to squander any.

Chicago White Sox
Projected Full-Season Record: 74-88, .459 (25th)
Last Fortnight: 76-86, .471 (21st)

When I make the caveat that the Dodgers are the most disappointing team relative to expectations, I do so with the White Sox in mind. They did not enter the season with the expectations that the Dodgers carried, but for a team that has been very competitive for much of the past decade, this was not the start to the season that many envisioned for the Pale Hose.

Perhaps most disappointing is the way that Paul Konerko is going out. Konerko is a favorite son on the South Side, and he is in the last year of his deal, which makes his start all the more atrocious. Looking at his stats, it appears that Konerko is doing little different than he we are accustomed to seeing from him, but there may be a clue in his performance against fastballs. Never a stalwart against breaking or offspeed pitches, much of Konerko’s value has been derived from his performance against the cheese. And this season, he simply is not hitting them like he has in the past. His 0.41 wFA/C ranks just 86th out of 161 qualified hitters, and is one of the reasons that his performance has lagged.

The White Sox haven’t finished in last place since 1984, but in order to keep that streak alive

Cleveland Indians
Projected Full-Season Record: 78-84, .482 (20th)
Last Fortnight: 82-80, .507 (14th)

If it was possible for the Indians could be represented by one album, I would submit that it would be Things Fall Apart by The Roots. For the past few seasons, the Indians have gotten off to a good start only to have things come crashing down around them. Since we last left off, Asdrubal Cabrera and Zach McAllister have hit the disabled list, and Nick Swisher has been hobbled as well. Mark Reynolds has cooled off significantly, and to a lesser degree Michael Bourn has as well. And Yan Gomes’ array of awesome potential nicknames can’t hide the fact that he has also slowed down, and given his 2.9% walk rate it may not be very long before his 123 wRC+ dips down back into double digits.

Much to Carson Cistulli’s delight, the Corey Kluber train keeps right on rolling, as has Carlos Santana. And Jason Kipnis has picked it up of late as well. But the team’s recent eight-game losing streak — including three at the hands of the Tigers — did some damage to Cleveland’s full-season projection. They will probably need more than Kluber’s brand of voodoo to get all of their pistons pumping full speed ahead once more.


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The Changing Effects of Petco Park.

Jeff Sullivan’s recent enjoyable trot through San Diego Padres statistics and history led to a number of commentors thinking about San Diego’s park factors. The Padres changed the outfield dimensions of Petco Park in the off-season, and since park factors are backwards looking and rely on multiple years of data, changing dimensions can throw a bit of a monkey wrench into the calculations. So, it’s possible that our park factors are now somewhat behind the times, and we need to keep this in mind when looking at the park adjusted numbers (such as wRC+, ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-, WAR, etc…) for San Diego players, both hitters and pitchers.

It’s not quite so simple as noting that the changing dimensions have made the old park factors useless, however. Moving in the fences helps home runs, yes. This is undeniable. But it also can decrease triples and doubles, as well as effect the more odd elements of park factors, such as walk-rates, strikeout rates and pop-up rates.

It’s too early in the season to construct terribly useful park factors for the new dimensions, but we can do some harmless back-of-the-napkin mathematics to at least determine if the recent numbers suggest at least the early signs of serious run environment changes.

Below are the extra base hit rates (per PA) for Petco Park stretching back to 2005:

chart_3.png


Doubles and triples are down, and home runs are way up. For greater specificity, we can see those same numbers in table form:



Season 1B% 2B% 3B% HR%
2006 15% 3.87% 0.72% 2.46%
2007 14% 4.18% 0.63% 2.39%
2008 15% 3.81% 0.49% 2.15%
2009 13% 3.51% 0.53% 2.02%
2010 15% 3.36% 0.47% 1.96%
2011 14% 3.77% 0.78% 1.56%
2012 15% 4.48% 0.84% 1.57%
2013 15% 3.82% 0.37% 2.40%

Does anyone else find it curious the 2013 doubles rate compares favorably to the same rate from 2008 through 2010? And the home run rate matches the unusual 2006 blip? This is why most (good) park factors include multiple years — in an effort to avoid catching weird blips — and include adjustments to reflect league-wide run environments. Odds are, some of the changes here may be reflections of the Padres personnel and the ever-morphing strengths of the NL West as much they reflect the effects of the park itself.

So has Petco Park changed appreciably this season? We can’t say. What we can say: Doubles have decreased 0.42% since the 2005-2012 period, triples have decreased 0.22% and homers have increased 0.72%.

If we convert that to run values (using 2013 adjusted constants, i.e. divide the constants by the wOBA scale):

Debit
2B: 0.0042 x (1.262/1.262) = 0.42% fewer runs per PA
3B: 0.0022 x (1.608/1.262) = 0.28% fewer runs per PA
Credit
HR: 0.0072 x (2.080/1.262) = 1.19% more runs per PA
That’s a 0.49% increase run value per PA. In (3 x 9 PA) 27 PA of a game, that’s an increase of 0.135 runs. In about 7 games, they are scoring an extra run; that’s an extra run per week. So we can say this: More game-context-neutral offense has thus far occurred at Petco Park.

I say that so awkwardly on purpose. I do not want to suggest these home park numbers will continue on their present pace without any further fluctuation. What he have is 36 games, and that’s all we can really speak about with any authority.

Another question we may also want to address: how has the Padres run scoring / run prevention changed? Well, with the Padres hitters, we see the same pattern of decreased doubles and triples, increased homers:

chart_1.png


And though the doubles rate decreased well beneath 2013 levels, it nearly equals the 2006-2011 levels. The homer rate is considerably higher than the preceding years, but is not much above the Padres’ late “steroid era” years.

And with the pitchers, the DIPS numbers are steady with the essential, weighty exception of their home run rate (NOTE: I’ve removed IBB from the BB-rate):

chart_1-1.png


That is a 1.97% HR-rate ballooning to a 3.09% HR-rate. It’s fair to say the pitching staff is a collection of non-studdish hurlers, but regardless of their mediocrity, they are maintaining nearly identical strikeout rates and walk rates with respect to recent rosters.

Is Petco Park haunted by its former dimensions? Yes, and we should keep that in mind when looking at the Padres park adjusted numbers. The Padres pitchers might not be quite as bad as those numbers make them look, since Petco probably isn’t quite as helpful to hurlers as it used to be. However we will need more time before we can measure the magnitude of these changes over the long term, and it is important to remember that changing the dimensions doesn’t turn a pitcher’s paradise into a hitte’s haven overnight.


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Tracking R.A. Dickey’s Knuckleball.

You all know the R.A. Dickey story by now. Journeyman major leaguer reinvents himself as a knuckleball thrower in his 30s, then refines the pitch to become one of the better starting pitchers in baseball, culminating with his selection as the National League Cy Young Award winner last year. The knuckleball is always a fascinating pitch, and Dickey is a fascinating guy, so there has been no shortage of media attention focused his direction.

While I was not working here at FanGraphs last year, I could not resist taking a belated look at some of Dickey’s dominating knuckleballs from that 2012 season. I’ve selected three particularly impressive pitches from that campaign and used an effect known as StroMotion to help track their movement.

RA_stroF.gif


While traditional pitches create movement through spin induced by grip and arm action (exceptional curveballs have been measured at 2,500-3,000 revolutions per minute) creating high pressure zones that deflect the ball in the opposite direction, the key to the unique movement of the knuckleball is a near complete lack of spin. The ideal knuckleball makes just 1 to 1.5 rotations (~150 RPM) between release and home plate, causing the drag on the ball to shift significantly mid-flight as the leading seam of the ball rotates slightly, resulting in unpredictable and uniquely sudden movement.

While the pitches shown above are an extreme, an average knuckleball still varies its trajectory from pitch to pitch enough to throw off hitters effectively. Below, I put together a composite of a more typical variety of knuckleballs for comparison.

RA_compositenew.gif


You can see why opposing hitters had some problems. If there’s no way to predict where the ball is going to go, hitting it is quite difficult indeed.

However, with a trade to the American League in 2013, Dickey has not yet been able to repeat his success that he achieved in New York. His walk rate in particular has risen from 2.08 per 9 innings to 3.65 BB/9, well above any mark he posted during his time in New York. Along with a drop in his strikeout rate, Dickey simply hasn’t been the dominant front-line starter that Toronto was hoping for when they acquired him.

While the inherently inconsistent movement of the knuckleball makes the small sample size movement comparisons I’ve done on other pitchers impossible to take conclusions from, FanGraph’s own Eno Sarris looked at one possible explanation for his struggles earlier this season: the drop-off in use of Dickey’s “power” knuckleball, which he throws in the 78-83 mph range.

This image from that piece really demonstrates how many fewer hard knuckleballs Dickey has been throwing this year.

DickeyVelo.png


While a slower knuckleball should allow for more movement, the varied speed and possibly improved control of the increased velocity likely contributed significantly to Dickey’s 2013 season. Last week, Eno published an interview with Dickey, where he noted that health issues were bothering him but he felt he was able to take the mound and compete even if he was at less than full strength.

Sarris: Why don’t you just take 15?

Dickey: Because I can still muster through six or seven innings. Even though I haven’t had my best knuckleball, I still have seven or eight quality starts. So I can still give something. Just a matter of not being as dominant as I was because I’m missing a weapon or two. It’s feeling better, though, this last week.

While most changes of speed in baseball are done through grip, Dickey’s varied knuckleball speeds are induced through arm speed. When he talks about “missing a weapon”, it appears that this might be what he’s referring to. I’ve compared his pitching motions this season on several pitches in each speed range to illustrate how Dickey’s adds velocity.

RA_compare.gif

RA_compareslow.gif


It might be difficult to see, but there is in fact a difference in arm speed and a slightly more violent motion to the hard knuckler, and given his back and neck issues, it appears that he’s less willing to inflict that motion on his body this season. Thus, the switch to more of a traditional slower knuckleball, and while correlation is not causation, it seems likely that this change is contributing to his lessened performance in 2013.

While he may never repeat his Cy Young season, the Blue Jays probably haven’t yet seen a full strength version of R.A. Dickey yet. If he gets back to being able to throw his harder knuckleball in the second half of the year, he might yet give them a glimpse of the pitcher the Mets saw last year.


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All this Mets hate, and we swept took both games you **** boys

Wheeler/Harvey...have mercy on your souls when we get some actual hitting around them.
 
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