ESPN The Mag article.
Tanaka is a $155M bargain.
Surprising starts to believe, not believe.
MLB clubs risking paralysis by analysis.
Halos' Richards proving to be the real deal.
Tanaka is a $155M bargain.
IN THE AFTERMATH, the players remembered how Masahiro Tanaka flinched, ducking as if someone had rifled a ball at his face.
It was early evening in a late-April game at Fenway, and Tanaka had carried a 4-0 lead into the fourth. He'd fallen behind 3 and 1 to David Ortiz and, to keep from walking him, challenged the slugger with a fastball. Pitching 101. Ortiz anticipated the fastball -- Hitting 101 -- and destroyed the pitch, a massive, fully leveraged hack. That was when Tanaka ducked his chin into his shoulder, as if the contact unnerved him. Then he watched as the ball soared high above, landing in a spot in center where Ortiz had never before driven it, some 482 feet away. As Ortiz's teammate Jonny Gomes later said, "I bet nobody has ever hit a ball that hard against him."
Meet Masahiro Tanaka's translator
Shingo Horie is a former-TV-guy-turned-interpreter helping break language barriers. Story »
That is, until the next batter. Tanaka, on a 1-1 count to Mike Napoli, fired another fastball. Napoli blistered a home run 405 feet toward the Massachusetts Turnpike, and Tanaka flinched even worse. His hands flashed upward and his body rippled, like someone taking a punch to the chin.
He was now faced with baseball's truest test: responding to the failure inherent in the game. Would Tanaka, the 25-year-old beneficiary of a $175 million investment -- the most the Yankees had ever spent on any free agent pitcher -- crack and begin to falter as New York's other Asian pitchers had? (Most notable was Kei Igawa, who played so poorly the Yankees benefited more from keeping him in the minors than calling him up.) Or would he live up to his 24-0 record with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles last year, which presaged the offseason bidding war in which Tanaka became the most hotly pursued Japanese pitcher in history?
Tanaka waited for Napoli to round the bases and stared as Gomes dug in. His body language betrayed nothing; he showed no sign of panic. His face looked determined, if flushed with anger. Two pitches into the at-bat he got Gomes to fly out. But then A.J. Pierzynski doubled off the Monster -- Another crack? The makings of a Red Sox rout? Tanaka snatched the ball but remained otherwise serene. He promptly struck out Xander Bogaerts to end the inning. That night Tanaka faced 12 more hitters, and none advanced beyond second base. The next day, chatting in the batting cage, Red Sox hitters would marvel at how he seemed to throw harder as the game progressed, nicking the edges of the strike zone, his split-fingered fastball fooling hitter after hitter as it sank out of sight at the plate. Tanaka pitched 7 innings, picking up the 9-3 win, and stayed perfect on the year at 3-0.
As Yankees catcher Brian McCann says, "He knows when to go to max effort."
Masahiro Tanaka
Peter Yang for ESPN
It may not be too early to wonder if we're looking at a future Yankees legend.
THE YANKEES BEGAN scouting Tanaka in 2007, when he was 18. More than half a dozen New York scouts watched him last year to gather as many perspectives as possible. The reports were consistently glowing; Gene Michael, the former general manager who helped turn around the franchise in the early 1990s, pored over hours of video and loved what he saw. Yankees GM Brian Cashman first floated the idea of nabbing Tanaka late in the 2013 season. He scheduled a meeting with the Steinbrenners, and when Hal and Hank walked into his office, he called up video of Tanaka pitching on his computer screen. The brothers trotted over to Cashman's side of the desk to watch; they saw Tanaka's precision in the zone and the dovetailing split-finger, the most lethal of the seven pitches Tanaka throws. At the end of the half-hour meeting, the Steinbrenners agreed with Cashman: They needed Tanaka.
When the Yankees identify a star they want, they attack the negotiations, immediately firing off their best offer, or something close to it, often with a deadline attached. As Robinson Cano closed in on a deal with the Mariners, the Yankees extended offers of $140 million to Shin-Soo Choo and $45 million to Carlos Beltran, warning the agents of each outfielder that they had multiple offers out and that once the first player accepted, the other offer would be pulled. Beltran quickly said yes, and Choo was no longer considered.
With Tanaka, the Yankees went in with an offer close to $150 million, sources say, knowing that if he took it, the club would also be on the hook for a $20 million posting fee, payable to the Rakuten Eagles. Cashman could not attach a firm deadline this time, though, because MLB rules dictate that a foreign free agent can entertain offers for 30 days. Tanaka's agent, Casey Close, gave each of the roughly 10 interested teams an hour to make their pitch. Many teams placed a value of $100 million to $120 million on Tanaka. Some were in the vicinity of the Yankees' offer. On Jan. 22 -- 12 days after Close opened the bidding -- Tanaka agreed to a seven-year, $155 million deal with the Yankees, the fifth highest in MLB history for a pitcher.
Cashman tried to tamp down expectations going into spring training by saying that Tanaka might be a good No. 3 starter. But he's been a whole lot more than that. There's really nobody else like him in the big leagues. Tanaka throws more types of pitches than McCann has fingers: a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, curveball, slider, cutter, splitter and changeup. And he can throw strikes with all of them, meaning that it's extremely difficult for hitters to corner him. Even if they do try to look for one particular pitch, Tanaka will probably see it and adjust. He generally leaves the pregame scouting reports to McCann and pitching coach Larry Rothschild, but from the mound, Tanaka is apt at reading the body language of hitters -- their tells -- and diagnosing what they are trying to do. This is when he'll shake off McCann.
"One thing we've seen is he's really good at making adjustments," says Yankees manager Joe Girardi.
Especially when the pressure mounts. Tanaka's average fastball velocity with the bases empty during his first six starts this year was 91.0 mph. But with runners on base and two strikes, it was 92.4 mph. In fact, with runners in scoring position, opposing hitters were 3-for-29 with 17 strikeouts. With runners in scoring position and two outs, they were 2-for-16 with 12 K's.
"He is like a rock star," says Marlins third baseman Casey McGehee, who played with Tanaka in Japan last season. Orioles manager Buck Showalter calls him "the real deal."
Tanaka's rise could not have come at a better moment for the Yankees. With longtime ace CC Sabathia in decline and the team preparing for the departure of Derek Jeter, Tanaka has, at least, inspired a dormant fan base -- ratings for the team's YES Network have increased by 20 percent -- and, at most, asserted himself as the franchise player, possibly the new Yankees captain.
DESPITE A CONTRACT that distinguishes him from almost all other players, Tanaka, his teammates say, has made a seamless transition into the Yankees' culture. His acerbic sense of humor darts through his limited English -- no easy task. George Rose served as a translator for the Yankees' Hideki Irabu in the late '90s, and he noticed humor was a casualty of the language barrier. If one of his teammates said something amusing, by the time Rose finished explaining the joke ... well, a joke is not a joke if it has to be explained.
[+] EnlargeMasahiro Tanaka
Kyodo/Landov
Tanaka was on everyone's radar after he went 24-0 for the Rakuten Eagles in Japan's NPB last season.
But right away, Tanaka's teammates learned that a raised eyebrow and the occasional English phrase relayed an ironic and dry worldview. He fit in perfectly in the bemused, even sardonic clubhouse of the most notorious team in the world. Tanaka can joke with his teammates because he is very comfortable with himself. The same man who said he has not ruled out another perfect season is also an unabashed fan of the Asian versions of One Direction. His entrance music is by Momoiro Clover Z, the Japanese equivalent of, say, the Spice Girls. He is assured enough to have once made a guest appearance on a variety show in Japan, dancing around and repeating the word "coconuts."
Players say Tanaka has done exactly what any new guy should do, no matter his past accomplishments. On team bus rides and flights, he has ceded the best seats to veterans. He takes good-natured teasing -- Sabathia calls him Baby -- and gives back just enough to show he's not a pushover.
But he has mostly kept his personality out of exchanges with reporters. Tanaka's approach in dealing with the media, one member of the organization noted, is much like that of Derek Jeter's: The goal appears to be to participate without participating, to answer questions without ever saying anything controversial, much less revealing.
This is quite a task given the attraction he's become. More than 100 print and TV reporters watched the first time Tanaka pitched to live hitters as a Yankee -- throwing 10 minutes of batting practice and doing some running and fielding drills. These days, each time Tanaka talks to reporters, he does a round with English-speaking reporters through an interpreter, then another round with the scores-more journalists from Japan. As questions are translated for Tanaka, his face often splits into a wry smile, as if he finds the whole thing just a little absurd.
After Tanaka's strong start against the Red Sox, SportsCenter producers asked me to interview him for a Sunday Conversation, and I prepared a long list of questions, knowing that we'd never get to a lot of them because of the two-language dynamic. Each question and each answer would have to be translated, eating into our 15 minutes.
As the interview started, I began to feel like a hitter standing in the box against Tanaka: He seemed to anticipate what I was thinking and wanted to ask, and he did his best to counteract it. The wry smile appeared.
I asked about adapting to a new type of baseball, moving from Japan to MLB. "Coming in," he said, "I already knew the ball will be different. So to me, it wasn't a big problem."
I asked for his favorite new English phrase. "I still don't have the vocabulary, so I feel I need to keep on learning the language."
I asked about his biggest cultural adjustment. "I am coming here to learn what American culture offers. And up to this point, I haven't had any problems adjusting to it."
When it was over, Tanaka got up and walked out without saying another word. That went pretty well, a producer in the room said. "No," I replied, "that was really terrible."
BUT TO THE Yankees players, says McCann, "he's been everything you could have hoped for."
Tanaka struck out 51 in his first 42 innings, the fourth most in major league history for any pitcher in his first six starts. The early results have been so promising that the conversation around Tanaka has moved from Will he make it? to How long can he last? In one Japanese World Series game last fall, he threw 160 pitches. This season Tanaka has thrown his splitter, which puts tremendous torque on his elbow, on 24 percent of his pitches. But with runners in scoring position and two strikes, he's thrown it 52 percent of the time. "I've never seen a pitcher throw that many splitters," David Ortiz says with wonderment. "Never."
[+] EnlargeMasahiro Tanaka
AP Photo/Kathy Willens
Tanaka's average fastball velocity of 93.3 increases by 2 mph with runners in scoring position, two strikes and two outs.
Most pitchers grip the splitter by driving the ball in between their index and middle fingers, and that separation -- from which the splitter gets its name -- stresses the ligament that extends through the forearm. But David Cone, the former Yankees pitcher who relied on the pitch, notes that Tanaka grips his splitter just a little differently, not buried quite so deeply against the webbing of his fingers, and finishes with a high-torque snap of the wrist, as if he's wielding a bullwhip. This way, the stress on the elbow and forearm is likely diminished.
In any case, the curiosity about Tanaka's durability only amplifies his allure. Five days after his start against the Red Sox, he faced the Angels on a cold night at Yankee Stadium. Before the game, Albert Pujols said Tanaka would have to adjust to him, rather than the other way around.
But as the game began, the Angels' hitters stood near the front of their dugout locked in on Tanaka; Ian Stewart spoke to David Freese while staring out at the field, as if trying to solve a crossword puzzle. The Angels constantly had runners on base, and Tanaka turned to the splitter -- a pitch that McCann says looks like a fastball on its way to the plate because of its indiscernible spin, right up to the moment that it tumbles. "He can throw it to either side of the plate; he can throw it anywhere he wants," McCann marveled.
By the fifth inning, the Angels had all seen the splitter, and they knew that Tanaka would probably throw it with two strikes. Mike Trout came to the plate first and drew the count to 2 and 2. After Trout fouled off three straight, Tanaka delivered a pitch low in the zone, and the best player in the world swung aggressively. The ball dived, skipping off the plate. Trout flailed over the top of it, a strikeout. He glanced at his bat and the umpire, in seeming disbelief, before he trudged back to the dugout.
Pujols then grounded out -- he still hadn't adjusted to Tanaka -- before Howie Kendrick hit a towering fly ball that Ichiro Suzuki misplayed in left field. Kendrick stretched it to a triple. But Tanaka hadn't flinched at the crack of the bat, or with Kendrick crouched in scoring position at third.
He simply turned to the plate, stared down Erick Aybar and shook off McCann's call signs before settling on his pitches. It took only three.
Aybar whiffed. On a splitter.
It was early evening in a late-April game at Fenway, and Tanaka had carried a 4-0 lead into the fourth. He'd fallen behind 3 and 1 to David Ortiz and, to keep from walking him, challenged the slugger with a fastball. Pitching 101. Ortiz anticipated the fastball -- Hitting 101 -- and destroyed the pitch, a massive, fully leveraged hack. That was when Tanaka ducked his chin into his shoulder, as if the contact unnerved him. Then he watched as the ball soared high above, landing in a spot in center where Ortiz had never before driven it, some 482 feet away. As Ortiz's teammate Jonny Gomes later said, "I bet nobody has ever hit a ball that hard against him."
Meet Masahiro Tanaka's translator
Shingo Horie is a former-TV-guy-turned-interpreter helping break language barriers. Story »
That is, until the next batter. Tanaka, on a 1-1 count to Mike Napoli, fired another fastball. Napoli blistered a home run 405 feet toward the Massachusetts Turnpike, and Tanaka flinched even worse. His hands flashed upward and his body rippled, like someone taking a punch to the chin.
He was now faced with baseball's truest test: responding to the failure inherent in the game. Would Tanaka, the 25-year-old beneficiary of a $175 million investment -- the most the Yankees had ever spent on any free agent pitcher -- crack and begin to falter as New York's other Asian pitchers had? (Most notable was Kei Igawa, who played so poorly the Yankees benefited more from keeping him in the minors than calling him up.) Or would he live up to his 24-0 record with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles last year, which presaged the offseason bidding war in which Tanaka became the most hotly pursued Japanese pitcher in history?
Tanaka waited for Napoli to round the bases and stared as Gomes dug in. His body language betrayed nothing; he showed no sign of panic. His face looked determined, if flushed with anger. Two pitches into the at-bat he got Gomes to fly out. But then A.J. Pierzynski doubled off the Monster -- Another crack? The makings of a Red Sox rout? Tanaka snatched the ball but remained otherwise serene. He promptly struck out Xander Bogaerts to end the inning. That night Tanaka faced 12 more hitters, and none advanced beyond second base. The next day, chatting in the batting cage, Red Sox hitters would marvel at how he seemed to throw harder as the game progressed, nicking the edges of the strike zone, his split-fingered fastball fooling hitter after hitter as it sank out of sight at the plate. Tanaka pitched 7 innings, picking up the 9-3 win, and stayed perfect on the year at 3-0.
As Yankees catcher Brian McCann says, "He knows when to go to max effort."
Masahiro Tanaka
Peter Yang for ESPN
It may not be too early to wonder if we're looking at a future Yankees legend.
THE YANKEES BEGAN scouting Tanaka in 2007, when he was 18. More than half a dozen New York scouts watched him last year to gather as many perspectives as possible. The reports were consistently glowing; Gene Michael, the former general manager who helped turn around the franchise in the early 1990s, pored over hours of video and loved what he saw. Yankees GM Brian Cashman first floated the idea of nabbing Tanaka late in the 2013 season. He scheduled a meeting with the Steinbrenners, and when Hal and Hank walked into his office, he called up video of Tanaka pitching on his computer screen. The brothers trotted over to Cashman's side of the desk to watch; they saw Tanaka's precision in the zone and the dovetailing split-finger, the most lethal of the seven pitches Tanaka throws. At the end of the half-hour meeting, the Steinbrenners agreed with Cashman: They needed Tanaka.
When the Yankees identify a star they want, they attack the negotiations, immediately firing off their best offer, or something close to it, often with a deadline attached. As Robinson Cano closed in on a deal with the Mariners, the Yankees extended offers of $140 million to Shin-Soo Choo and $45 million to Carlos Beltran, warning the agents of each outfielder that they had multiple offers out and that once the first player accepted, the other offer would be pulled. Beltran quickly said yes, and Choo was no longer considered.
With Tanaka, the Yankees went in with an offer close to $150 million, sources say, knowing that if he took it, the club would also be on the hook for a $20 million posting fee, payable to the Rakuten Eagles. Cashman could not attach a firm deadline this time, though, because MLB rules dictate that a foreign free agent can entertain offers for 30 days. Tanaka's agent, Casey Close, gave each of the roughly 10 interested teams an hour to make their pitch. Many teams placed a value of $100 million to $120 million on Tanaka. Some were in the vicinity of the Yankees' offer. On Jan. 22 -- 12 days after Close opened the bidding -- Tanaka agreed to a seven-year, $155 million deal with the Yankees, the fifth highest in MLB history for a pitcher.
Cashman tried to tamp down expectations going into spring training by saying that Tanaka might be a good No. 3 starter. But he's been a whole lot more than that. There's really nobody else like him in the big leagues. Tanaka throws more types of pitches than McCann has fingers: a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, curveball, slider, cutter, splitter and changeup. And he can throw strikes with all of them, meaning that it's extremely difficult for hitters to corner him. Even if they do try to look for one particular pitch, Tanaka will probably see it and adjust. He generally leaves the pregame scouting reports to McCann and pitching coach Larry Rothschild, but from the mound, Tanaka is apt at reading the body language of hitters -- their tells -- and diagnosing what they are trying to do. This is when he'll shake off McCann.
"One thing we've seen is he's really good at making adjustments," says Yankees manager Joe Girardi.
Especially when the pressure mounts. Tanaka's average fastball velocity with the bases empty during his first six starts this year was 91.0 mph. But with runners on base and two strikes, it was 92.4 mph. In fact, with runners in scoring position, opposing hitters were 3-for-29 with 17 strikeouts. With runners in scoring position and two outs, they were 2-for-16 with 12 K's.
"He is like a rock star," says Marlins third baseman Casey McGehee, who played with Tanaka in Japan last season. Orioles manager Buck Showalter calls him "the real deal."
Tanaka's rise could not have come at a better moment for the Yankees. With longtime ace CC Sabathia in decline and the team preparing for the departure of Derek Jeter, Tanaka has, at least, inspired a dormant fan base -- ratings for the team's YES Network have increased by 20 percent -- and, at most, asserted himself as the franchise player, possibly the new Yankees captain.
DESPITE A CONTRACT that distinguishes him from almost all other players, Tanaka, his teammates say, has made a seamless transition into the Yankees' culture. His acerbic sense of humor darts through his limited English -- no easy task. George Rose served as a translator for the Yankees' Hideki Irabu in the late '90s, and he noticed humor was a casualty of the language barrier. If one of his teammates said something amusing, by the time Rose finished explaining the joke ... well, a joke is not a joke if it has to be explained.
[+] EnlargeMasahiro Tanaka
Kyodo/Landov
Tanaka was on everyone's radar after he went 24-0 for the Rakuten Eagles in Japan's NPB last season.
But right away, Tanaka's teammates learned that a raised eyebrow and the occasional English phrase relayed an ironic and dry worldview. He fit in perfectly in the bemused, even sardonic clubhouse of the most notorious team in the world. Tanaka can joke with his teammates because he is very comfortable with himself. The same man who said he has not ruled out another perfect season is also an unabashed fan of the Asian versions of One Direction. His entrance music is by Momoiro Clover Z, the Japanese equivalent of, say, the Spice Girls. He is assured enough to have once made a guest appearance on a variety show in Japan, dancing around and repeating the word "coconuts."
Players say Tanaka has done exactly what any new guy should do, no matter his past accomplishments. On team bus rides and flights, he has ceded the best seats to veterans. He takes good-natured teasing -- Sabathia calls him Baby -- and gives back just enough to show he's not a pushover.
But he has mostly kept his personality out of exchanges with reporters. Tanaka's approach in dealing with the media, one member of the organization noted, is much like that of Derek Jeter's: The goal appears to be to participate without participating, to answer questions without ever saying anything controversial, much less revealing.
This is quite a task given the attraction he's become. More than 100 print and TV reporters watched the first time Tanaka pitched to live hitters as a Yankee -- throwing 10 minutes of batting practice and doing some running and fielding drills. These days, each time Tanaka talks to reporters, he does a round with English-speaking reporters through an interpreter, then another round with the scores-more journalists from Japan. As questions are translated for Tanaka, his face often splits into a wry smile, as if he finds the whole thing just a little absurd.
After Tanaka's strong start against the Red Sox, SportsCenter producers asked me to interview him for a Sunday Conversation, and I prepared a long list of questions, knowing that we'd never get to a lot of them because of the two-language dynamic. Each question and each answer would have to be translated, eating into our 15 minutes.
As the interview started, I began to feel like a hitter standing in the box against Tanaka: He seemed to anticipate what I was thinking and wanted to ask, and he did his best to counteract it. The wry smile appeared.
I asked about adapting to a new type of baseball, moving from Japan to MLB. "Coming in," he said, "I already knew the ball will be different. So to me, it wasn't a big problem."
I asked for his favorite new English phrase. "I still don't have the vocabulary, so I feel I need to keep on learning the language."
I asked about his biggest cultural adjustment. "I am coming here to learn what American culture offers. And up to this point, I haven't had any problems adjusting to it."
When it was over, Tanaka got up and walked out without saying another word. That went pretty well, a producer in the room said. "No," I replied, "that was really terrible."
BUT TO THE Yankees players, says McCann, "he's been everything you could have hoped for."
Tanaka struck out 51 in his first 42 innings, the fourth most in major league history for any pitcher in his first six starts. The early results have been so promising that the conversation around Tanaka has moved from Will he make it? to How long can he last? In one Japanese World Series game last fall, he threw 160 pitches. This season Tanaka has thrown his splitter, which puts tremendous torque on his elbow, on 24 percent of his pitches. But with runners in scoring position and two strikes, he's thrown it 52 percent of the time. "I've never seen a pitcher throw that many splitters," David Ortiz says with wonderment. "Never."
[+] EnlargeMasahiro Tanaka
AP Photo/Kathy Willens
Tanaka's average fastball velocity of 93.3 increases by 2 mph with runners in scoring position, two strikes and two outs.
Most pitchers grip the splitter by driving the ball in between their index and middle fingers, and that separation -- from which the splitter gets its name -- stresses the ligament that extends through the forearm. But David Cone, the former Yankees pitcher who relied on the pitch, notes that Tanaka grips his splitter just a little differently, not buried quite so deeply against the webbing of his fingers, and finishes with a high-torque snap of the wrist, as if he's wielding a bullwhip. This way, the stress on the elbow and forearm is likely diminished.
In any case, the curiosity about Tanaka's durability only amplifies his allure. Five days after his start against the Red Sox, he faced the Angels on a cold night at Yankee Stadium. Before the game, Albert Pujols said Tanaka would have to adjust to him, rather than the other way around.
But as the game began, the Angels' hitters stood near the front of their dugout locked in on Tanaka; Ian Stewart spoke to David Freese while staring out at the field, as if trying to solve a crossword puzzle. The Angels constantly had runners on base, and Tanaka turned to the splitter -- a pitch that McCann says looks like a fastball on its way to the plate because of its indiscernible spin, right up to the moment that it tumbles. "He can throw it to either side of the plate; he can throw it anywhere he wants," McCann marveled.
By the fifth inning, the Angels had all seen the splitter, and they knew that Tanaka would probably throw it with two strikes. Mike Trout came to the plate first and drew the count to 2 and 2. After Trout fouled off three straight, Tanaka delivered a pitch low in the zone, and the best player in the world swung aggressively. The ball dived, skipping off the plate. Trout flailed over the top of it, a strikeout. He glanced at his bat and the umpire, in seeming disbelief, before he trudged back to the dugout.
Pujols then grounded out -- he still hadn't adjusted to Tanaka -- before Howie Kendrick hit a towering fly ball that Ichiro Suzuki misplayed in left field. Kendrick stretched it to a triple. But Tanaka hadn't flinched at the crack of the bat, or with Kendrick crouched in scoring position at third.
He simply turned to the plate, stared down Erick Aybar and shook off McCann's call signs before settling on his pitches. It took only three.
Aybar whiffed. On a splitter.
Surprising starts to believe, not believe.
MLB teams have now played approximately 25 percent of their regular-season games, and as much as we’d like to think you can just multiply their wins or statistics by four to see how the season will play out, we all know better.
We do have, though, a pretty good indication by now of who the contending teams are, which players are having breakout seasons and those who have begun their decline. Some players are going to get better, some are going to come back to reality and some are going to fall apart. So what should you believe and not believe after the first six weeks of the season?
Here's my look at a few players and teams off to surprisingly good (and bad) starts, and why you should buy into their performances or not.
Believe this
1. Dee Gordon | 2B | Los Angeles Dodgers
Gordon, 26, is the most improved player in baseball this season. If the All-Star game were tomorrow, he’d be the starting the second baseman for the National League. He’s developed into an impact leadoff hitter, leading the league with 24 stolen bases and a slash line of .322/.362/.434. He’s taking pitches, slapping the ball, bunting and getting on base any way he can. He’s found a permanent home at second base and continues to improve defensively on a nightly basis with special range to both sides.
Perhaps most impressive has been Gordon's work ethic. He knew he needed to get stronger and learn a new position and he's done just that, regularly coming out for early work under the tutelage of first base coach Davey Lopes, who has done wonders for Gordon in all facets of the game.
I’m not saying Gordon will hit .322 all season, but I do believe he’ll finish with a slash line in the neighborhood of .280/.350/.420 and end up with 75-100 stolen bases. Believe it!
2. The Colorado Rockies' dynamic lineup
The Rockies lead the major leagues with runs scored with 231, the next closest being the Athletics with 203 and in the National League the Marlins with 174. They’ve hit more doubles and home runs than any other team in the sport and their team OPS is the only in baseball over .800 at .843. Additionally, they have bucked the trend of rising strikeouts around the league; Colorado has the second fewest K's in the NL.
Is some of this due to Coors Field? Sure, but it’s still one of the game's best overall lineups and they’re going to hit at home and on the road.
Troy Tulowitzki is finally having his MVP season, Justin Morneau is revived, and sophomore third baseman Nolan Arenado had a 28-game hitting streak, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who's scouted him. Remember, Arenado won the Arizona Fall League MVP over both Mike Trout and Bryce Harper in 2011. And let's not forget about Charlie Blackmon, who has been the biggest surprise for the Rockies by hitting .342/.375/.597 with nine home runs.
They've gotten all of this offense despite slow starts from Carlos Gonzalez and Wilin Rosario and with last year’s NL batting champion Michael Cuddyer playing just 16 games because of injuries. So even if guys like Blackmon and Morneau cool off, there are others who are poised to bounce back.
3. The Arizona Diamondbacks' poor start
The Diamondbacks had a difficult schedule to start the year; they already have played the San Francisco Giants, Dodgers, and Rockies a combined 18 times. However, they also were able to get a real good feel of how they stack up against the NL West opponents. The answer is "not well."
The D-backs already are 10 games out of first place and are 29th in baseball in ERA and 20th in OPS. They have too many fourth-outfielder types and not enough impact talent. Right-hander Archie Bradley, their most exciting prospect, has been sidelined with injury, and Patrick Corbin is out for the year following Tommy John surgery. Sorry to say it, but the Diamondbacks are out for the year, too.
4. Wily Peralta | RHP | Milwaukee Brewers
Doug Melvin, the Brewers' general manager, told me three years ago, two years ago and last spring training that he thought Peralta would develop into a top-of-rotation starter. Last year, Peralta made some progress by posting a 4.37 ERA in 183 1/3 innings, but he was still walking almost four batters per nine innings. He's now down to 1.77 walks per nine, and his ERA has dropped to 2.17.
I asked Melvin what the difference has been for Peralta this year and what adjustments he’s made. Melvin's response: "[Peralta]'s been able to repeat his delivery, he's not trying to overpower every hitter, and he has more confidence in his slider."
All of those factors shouldn’t change the rest of the way. Time to believe.
5. Jordan Lyles | RHP | Colorado Rockies
The Rockies made an extremely unpopular and highly criticized trade last winter when they sent Dexter Fowler to the Astros for starting pitcher Lyles and outfielder Brandon Barnes. I was the first to rip them and now the first to eat crow.
Lyles, 23, had an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his first three seasons with the Astros. How would that type of performance work in Coors Field? The Rockies had the vision of correcting some delivery flaws and really believed that they could help maximize the talent that made him a first-round draft pick in 2008. Lyles isn't striking out a lot of batters, but he's keeping the ball down and letting the Rockies' infield do the work. His ground ball rate of 55.4 ranks 11th in MLB, and that plays well with Gold Glovers like Tulowitzki and Arenado behind him.
There will be some regression as the season goes on, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be eating crow the rest of the season. This is a quality starter.
Don't believe this
1. Pablo Sandoval | 3B | San Francisco Giants
"Kung Fu Panda" is off to a terrible start with a slash line of .193/.261/.293, but that's all it is, a slow start. Sure, it’s his free-agent walk year and that definitely might have gotten into his head, which is why he is taking more pitches in an effort to be more selective.
Should the Giants worry about Sandoval? No. Should at least the fans worry about him? No. Just put your seat belt on and get ready for Sandoval to go on a tear. He’s starting to swing at the first pitch again and although he’ll still be among the leaders in swinging out of the strike zone, he’ll also start leading the leagues in hits out of the zone.
2. Yangervis Solarte | 3B | New York Yankees
Solarte, 26, has been one of the best stories for the Yankees thus far, filling in for the suspended Alex Rodriguez and doing it with style, production and dominance. He’s batting .336/.412/.500 and opponents have started to notice.
Pitchers didn't have much data to work with when they faced him in April, but that’s going to change quickly. Solarte spent eight years in the minor leagues hitting over .300 just three times with a career minor league OBP of .336. I think Solarte has done a great job, I’m just not buying he’ll be able to do it over a full season at this pace.
3. Cincinnati Reds' poor start
The Reds are going to be in the NL Central race all year and shouldn’t be concerned with their 17-19 start. Their poor start is only because of injuries to Mat Latos, Tony Cingrani, Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco and Jay Bruce. As long as they can hover around .500 until everyone’s healthy, they are in for a fun pennant race.
Their starting pitching is deep and strong, Chapman is back throwing 102 mph, Mesoraco is showing signs of reaching his offensive potential, Todd Frazier continues to develop and Johnny Cueto is now a true ace. A poor start will only turn into a strong finish.
4. Curtis Granderson | OF | New York Mets
Granderson is following in the foot steps of so many players that have changed leagues over the last few years who slump dramatically in their first season in the other league. However, I don’t think Granderson will be this bad all season. There is an adjustment after you are used to facing American League pitching for a decade. He’ll hit fewer home runs having to play half of his games at Citi Field, but he won’t hit .205/.307/.356 all year, and no, his decline is not starting at age 33. In fact, on Tuesday against the Yankees, he went 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBIs.
5. St. Louis Cardinals' infield play
The National League champions changed 75 percent of their infield from last year and so far it hasn’t worked. Matt Carpenter was moved from second base back to his natural position of third base and quickly found out that not playing a position for an entire season would take time to adjust back. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta has been below the Mendoza Line, but is at least hitting for power. Promising second baseman Kolten Wong was demoted to Triple-A after a slow start. Matt Adams has just two home runs.
Don't worry, St. Louis: I fully expect by season’s end that the Cardinals' infield will once again be solid both offensively and defensively. The personnel is there both in talent and in depth. Manager Mike Matheny has a lot of internal options for his infield, both in the majors and minors. He always can move Allen Craig back to first base to open up an outfield spot for prospect Oscar Taveras and give more playing time to Mark Ellis to allow Wong to find himself in the minors.
We do have, though, a pretty good indication by now of who the contending teams are, which players are having breakout seasons and those who have begun their decline. Some players are going to get better, some are going to come back to reality and some are going to fall apart. So what should you believe and not believe after the first six weeks of the season?
Here's my look at a few players and teams off to surprisingly good (and bad) starts, and why you should buy into their performances or not.
Believe this
1. Dee Gordon | 2B | Los Angeles Dodgers
Gordon, 26, is the most improved player in baseball this season. If the All-Star game were tomorrow, he’d be the starting the second baseman for the National League. He’s developed into an impact leadoff hitter, leading the league with 24 stolen bases and a slash line of .322/.362/.434. He’s taking pitches, slapping the ball, bunting and getting on base any way he can. He’s found a permanent home at second base and continues to improve defensively on a nightly basis with special range to both sides.
Perhaps most impressive has been Gordon's work ethic. He knew he needed to get stronger and learn a new position and he's done just that, regularly coming out for early work under the tutelage of first base coach Davey Lopes, who has done wonders for Gordon in all facets of the game.
I’m not saying Gordon will hit .322 all season, but I do believe he’ll finish with a slash line in the neighborhood of .280/.350/.420 and end up with 75-100 stolen bases. Believe it!
2. The Colorado Rockies' dynamic lineup
The Rockies lead the major leagues with runs scored with 231, the next closest being the Athletics with 203 and in the National League the Marlins with 174. They’ve hit more doubles and home runs than any other team in the sport and their team OPS is the only in baseball over .800 at .843. Additionally, they have bucked the trend of rising strikeouts around the league; Colorado has the second fewest K's in the NL.
Is some of this due to Coors Field? Sure, but it’s still one of the game's best overall lineups and they’re going to hit at home and on the road.
Troy Tulowitzki is finally having his MVP season, Justin Morneau is revived, and sophomore third baseman Nolan Arenado had a 28-game hitting streak, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who's scouted him. Remember, Arenado won the Arizona Fall League MVP over both Mike Trout and Bryce Harper in 2011. And let's not forget about Charlie Blackmon, who has been the biggest surprise for the Rockies by hitting .342/.375/.597 with nine home runs.
They've gotten all of this offense despite slow starts from Carlos Gonzalez and Wilin Rosario and with last year’s NL batting champion Michael Cuddyer playing just 16 games because of injuries. So even if guys like Blackmon and Morneau cool off, there are others who are poised to bounce back.
3. The Arizona Diamondbacks' poor start
The Diamondbacks had a difficult schedule to start the year; they already have played the San Francisco Giants, Dodgers, and Rockies a combined 18 times. However, they also were able to get a real good feel of how they stack up against the NL West opponents. The answer is "not well."
The D-backs already are 10 games out of first place and are 29th in baseball in ERA and 20th in OPS. They have too many fourth-outfielder types and not enough impact talent. Right-hander Archie Bradley, their most exciting prospect, has been sidelined with injury, and Patrick Corbin is out for the year following Tommy John surgery. Sorry to say it, but the Diamondbacks are out for the year, too.
4. Wily Peralta | RHP | Milwaukee Brewers
Doug Melvin, the Brewers' general manager, told me three years ago, two years ago and last spring training that he thought Peralta would develop into a top-of-rotation starter. Last year, Peralta made some progress by posting a 4.37 ERA in 183 1/3 innings, but he was still walking almost four batters per nine innings. He's now down to 1.77 walks per nine, and his ERA has dropped to 2.17.
I asked Melvin what the difference has been for Peralta this year and what adjustments he’s made. Melvin's response: "[Peralta]'s been able to repeat his delivery, he's not trying to overpower every hitter, and he has more confidence in his slider."
All of those factors shouldn’t change the rest of the way. Time to believe.
5. Jordan Lyles | RHP | Colorado Rockies
The Rockies made an extremely unpopular and highly criticized trade last winter when they sent Dexter Fowler to the Astros for starting pitcher Lyles and outfielder Brandon Barnes. I was the first to rip them and now the first to eat crow.
Lyles, 23, had an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his first three seasons with the Astros. How would that type of performance work in Coors Field? The Rockies had the vision of correcting some delivery flaws and really believed that they could help maximize the talent that made him a first-round draft pick in 2008. Lyles isn't striking out a lot of batters, but he's keeping the ball down and letting the Rockies' infield do the work. His ground ball rate of 55.4 ranks 11th in MLB, and that plays well with Gold Glovers like Tulowitzki and Arenado behind him.
There will be some regression as the season goes on, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be eating crow the rest of the season. This is a quality starter.
Don't believe this
1. Pablo Sandoval | 3B | San Francisco Giants
"Kung Fu Panda" is off to a terrible start with a slash line of .193/.261/.293, but that's all it is, a slow start. Sure, it’s his free-agent walk year and that definitely might have gotten into his head, which is why he is taking more pitches in an effort to be more selective.
Should the Giants worry about Sandoval? No. Should at least the fans worry about him? No. Just put your seat belt on and get ready for Sandoval to go on a tear. He’s starting to swing at the first pitch again and although he’ll still be among the leaders in swinging out of the strike zone, he’ll also start leading the leagues in hits out of the zone.
2. Yangervis Solarte | 3B | New York Yankees
Solarte, 26, has been one of the best stories for the Yankees thus far, filling in for the suspended Alex Rodriguez and doing it with style, production and dominance. He’s batting .336/.412/.500 and opponents have started to notice.
Pitchers didn't have much data to work with when they faced him in April, but that’s going to change quickly. Solarte spent eight years in the minor leagues hitting over .300 just three times with a career minor league OBP of .336. I think Solarte has done a great job, I’m just not buying he’ll be able to do it over a full season at this pace.
3. Cincinnati Reds' poor start
The Reds are going to be in the NL Central race all year and shouldn’t be concerned with their 17-19 start. Their poor start is only because of injuries to Mat Latos, Tony Cingrani, Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco and Jay Bruce. As long as they can hover around .500 until everyone’s healthy, they are in for a fun pennant race.
Their starting pitching is deep and strong, Chapman is back throwing 102 mph, Mesoraco is showing signs of reaching his offensive potential, Todd Frazier continues to develop and Johnny Cueto is now a true ace. A poor start will only turn into a strong finish.
4. Curtis Granderson | OF | New York Mets
Granderson is following in the foot steps of so many players that have changed leagues over the last few years who slump dramatically in their first season in the other league. However, I don’t think Granderson will be this bad all season. There is an adjustment after you are used to facing American League pitching for a decade. He’ll hit fewer home runs having to play half of his games at Citi Field, but he won’t hit .205/.307/.356 all year, and no, his decline is not starting at age 33. In fact, on Tuesday against the Yankees, he went 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBIs.
5. St. Louis Cardinals' infield play
The National League champions changed 75 percent of their infield from last year and so far it hasn’t worked. Matt Carpenter was moved from second base back to his natural position of third base and quickly found out that not playing a position for an entire season would take time to adjust back. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta has been below the Mendoza Line, but is at least hitting for power. Promising second baseman Kolten Wong was demoted to Triple-A after a slow start. Matt Adams has just two home runs.
Don't worry, St. Louis: I fully expect by season’s end that the Cardinals' infield will once again be solid both offensively and defensively. The personnel is there both in talent and in depth. Manager Mike Matheny has a lot of internal options for his infield, both in the majors and minors. He always can move Allen Craig back to first base to open up an outfield spot for prospect Oscar Taveras and give more playing time to Mark Ellis to allow Wong to find himself in the minors.
MLB clubs risking paralysis by analysis.
The best trend in baseball over the past decade is that a simple question is asked reflexively: Why?
For a sport long entrenched in unwritten rules and a that's-the-way-things-have-always-been mentality, the changes are dramatic.
Not only are pitches thrown by relievers counted, but the number of times they warm up is counted, and the number of pitches thrown in warm-ups are counted. Some managers have the warm-ups of the other team's relievers counted. Defensive players are being moved, in sweeping shifts, to where hitters are most likely to hit the ball, an alteration so simple and so logical. Teams started realizing that it made no sense for a catcher worth tens of millions of dollars to put himself at risk blocking the plate to save a run worth about $200,000.
It's good stuff, mostly. It's great stuff, mostly.
But there is a risk of paralysis through analysis, and it might be time for teams to ask this "why": Why are teams routinely trading the opportunity to win games today -- right now -- for the sake of tomorrow, and is it worth it?
Exhibit A: Service time manipulation
The Pirates are front and center in this conversation at the moment, because their right fielder of the future, the highly talented Gregory Polanco, is sitting in the minor leagues with a .378 batting average and an OPS of almost 1.100. In all likelihood, the Pirates will call up Polanco after the Super Two deadline has passed so that he will become eligible for arbitration after 2017, rather than 2016. Meanwhile, the Pirates' right fielders rank 20th in OPS and the team is slogging along.
The Pirates are hardly alone in this practice. The Rays have done it as well, and that discipline may have helped them get more young players to agree to team-friendly deals, because the players know those contracts will help get them to the big leagues more quickly.
But the question should be: Why are we doing this?
The Pirates should weigh the money that might possibly be saved from tethering Polanco in the minors to the potential financial gain that might be realized if the team makes the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Here's another way to look at it: If the Pirates miss the playoffs by one game and it's possible that Polanco's presence could have made a difference, how much money does the team stand to lose in fan support?
It's also worth weighing these factors: What are the odds that Polanco will be with the Pirates in four or five years? What are the chances that he gets hurt, which would render the service-time machinations worthless. What's the value of winning now? In short: Is it worth it for the Pirates to focus on the 2017 payroll in 2014?
Exhibit B: Pitch and innings counts
This has been going on for the better part of a decade now, and the number of pitching injuries are going up. Are the restrictions actually helping?
"I think by now we should all realize that we don't have a clue," one highly ranked executive said.
As the official noted, teams have been applying one-size-fits-all rules on pitch and innings limits to pitchers without really having any scientific foundation.
"We're treating these guys as if they come to us as blank slates, and they're all starting from the same point," he said. "They're not. They all have different individual histories, different backgrounds in coaching, in what type of pitches of they've been throwing, how often they're throwing. They're all completely different."
I spoke with about a half-dozen scouts and executives in the aftermath of the news that Jose Fernandez has been advised to have Tommy John surgery, and it was as if they all worked from the same script: Don't abuse pitchers, but use them. Because nobody has any idea when or how a pitcher will break down, only that almost inevitably, they will.
How much extra money have the Giants made over the past seven years because they simply called up Tim Lincecum when he was ready for the big leagues and pitched him, without regard to service time and innings pruning?
Why? Why? Why?
It's the best question being asked in baseball.
Along the same lines: The Rockies should trade their top prospect for Jeff Samardzija, writes Mark Kiszla.
• The Marlins made it official: Jose Fernandez will miss the rest of 2014. Meanwhile, the team is spiraling downhill. Tyler Kepner writes about the rash of injuries.
Around the league
• On Tuesday's podcast, Jayson Stark discussed the Tommy John epidemic, and Adam Rubin looked at the parallels between Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey.
• Ryne Sandberg was direct in his criticism of Jonathan Papelbon. From Matt Gelb's story:
Jonathan Papelbon's soreness Sunday presented a bigger problem for Sandberg. The closer proclaimed himself able Tuesday. Sandberg, though, remained disappointed in the $50 million pitcher's unavailability.
"Well," Sandberg said, "we need a closer that can go three games in a row and close three games. No question about that."
It would have been a footnote, of course, had Antonio Bastardo saved what turned out to be a 5-4 loss to New York, or if the Phillies had better bullpen alternatives than Roberto Hernandez, who threw 99 pitches Friday and tried to save Sunday's game.
Those are flaws that will not be cured overnight.
Papelbon, meanwhile, said he harbored no regrets. He threw 21 pitches in the two games before Sunday's.
By the way: Papelbon is just about untradable, given that he is making $13 million for this year, $13 million for next year, and needs to finish 86 games for the rest of the season and next in order to vest a $13 million option for 2016.
Ruben Amaro stood by his closer.
• Josh Reddick got new walk-up music, and the Athletics won again, as Susan Slusser writes.
• The best game of last night came from the Tigers and Miguel Cabrera. After a instant replay challenge worked for the Tigers on an attempted stolen base, after Torii Hunter battled for a walk, Cabrera mashed a three-run homer -- and Victor Martinez followed with another homer. Cabrera has started crushing pitches on the outer half, as ESPN Stats & Information notes.
• Mike Minor had a strong outing against the Giants.
• Mark Appel is close to returning to a minor league affiliate.
• PED scrutiny follows Melky Cabrera, writes Jerry Crasnick.
• James Shields reached a milestone.
• An Astros pitcher continues to throw well.
• For Matt Harrison, back troubles continue to pop up.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Braves are going with a six-man rotation now, and perhaps into the future.
2. Kevin Gausman was called up and inserted into the Baltimore rotation to pitch against Justin Verlander today.
3. Jake Peavy wants to stay in Boston.
Dings and dents
1. Carlos Quentin was back in the lineup, as Corey Brock writes.
2. The Blue Jays are waiting for Colby Rasmus to heal.
3. Carlos Beltran hopes to avoid surgery, writes Erik Boland.
4. Omar Infante landed on the disabled list, writes Andy McCullough.
5. Jay Bruce might be back faster than expected. Hal McCoy writes about the miracles of modern medicine.
6. Ryan Braun was reinstated from the DL.
7. Byron Buxton aggravated a previous injury, writes Andy Greder.
Tuesday's games
1. Stephen Strasburg made two big mistakes, writes James Wagner.
2. Errors undercut Cliff Lee.
3. Toronto backed R.A. Dickey.
4. Chase Headley mashed a big homer, and the Padres are closing in on .500.
5. The Mets outlasted the Yankees in a really ugly game. Joe Girardi is unsure why he was ejected from the game.
6. Jake Peavy is struggled with his command. David Ortiz had a big day.
7. The Cardinals slogged their way to a win.
8. Marco Estrada was outstanding.
9. Chris Parmelee had a moment.
10. David Price and the Rays had a really, really nice win.
11. Bronson Arroyo was "the man."
NL East
• Matt Williams has dealt with a lot of adversity, writes Thomas Boswell.
• Zack Wheeler's struggles are are a real concern for the Mets.
NL Central
• Javier Baez is struggling. Though the years, I've had some GMs and farm directors tell me they like it when a touted prospect has a slump like this, so that they learn to work through problems -- and before they reach the big leagues and hit the inevitable rough spots, they can have a been-there, done-that feeling about conquering a slide.
• The Pirates and Brewers talked again about their fight.
• Andrew McCutchen is seeing a lot of off-speed pitches, writes Karen Price.
• Everybody is accountable, says GM John Mozeliak.
• Jake Arrieta taxed the rest of the staff, as Mark Gonzales writes.
NL West
• Buster Posey had a tough night.
• Josh Beckett got it done again.
AL East
• Mark Buehrle has been old reliable.
• Caleb Joseph had an outstanding game.
AL Central
• For the White Sox, new faces bring new hope.
AL West
• Sean Doolittle is thriving in the bullpen.
• Mike Trout is a really popular guy.
• Hisashi Iwakuma was let down.
Lastly
• Torii Hunter came to the defense of an umpire.
• Brad Ausmus had a wry thought about the benches and bullpens clearing.
• Terry Francona was picked for the All-Star staff.
• The Twins are talking about adding softer padding.
• Nobody knows how Rougned Odor made this play.
And today will be better than yesterday.
For a sport long entrenched in unwritten rules and a that's-the-way-things-have-always-been mentality, the changes are dramatic.
Not only are pitches thrown by relievers counted, but the number of times they warm up is counted, and the number of pitches thrown in warm-ups are counted. Some managers have the warm-ups of the other team's relievers counted. Defensive players are being moved, in sweeping shifts, to where hitters are most likely to hit the ball, an alteration so simple and so logical. Teams started realizing that it made no sense for a catcher worth tens of millions of dollars to put himself at risk blocking the plate to save a run worth about $200,000.
It's good stuff, mostly. It's great stuff, mostly.
But there is a risk of paralysis through analysis, and it might be time for teams to ask this "why": Why are teams routinely trading the opportunity to win games today -- right now -- for the sake of tomorrow, and is it worth it?
Exhibit A: Service time manipulation
The Pirates are front and center in this conversation at the moment, because their right fielder of the future, the highly talented Gregory Polanco, is sitting in the minor leagues with a .378 batting average and an OPS of almost 1.100. In all likelihood, the Pirates will call up Polanco after the Super Two deadline has passed so that he will become eligible for arbitration after 2017, rather than 2016. Meanwhile, the Pirates' right fielders rank 20th in OPS and the team is slogging along.
The Pirates are hardly alone in this practice. The Rays have done it as well, and that discipline may have helped them get more young players to agree to team-friendly deals, because the players know those contracts will help get them to the big leagues more quickly.
But the question should be: Why are we doing this?
The Pirates should weigh the money that might possibly be saved from tethering Polanco in the minors to the potential financial gain that might be realized if the team makes the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Here's another way to look at it: If the Pirates miss the playoffs by one game and it's possible that Polanco's presence could have made a difference, how much money does the team stand to lose in fan support?
It's also worth weighing these factors: What are the odds that Polanco will be with the Pirates in four or five years? What are the chances that he gets hurt, which would render the service-time machinations worthless. What's the value of winning now? In short: Is it worth it for the Pirates to focus on the 2017 payroll in 2014?
Exhibit B: Pitch and innings counts
This has been going on for the better part of a decade now, and the number of pitching injuries are going up. Are the restrictions actually helping?
"I think by now we should all realize that we don't have a clue," one highly ranked executive said.
As the official noted, teams have been applying one-size-fits-all rules on pitch and innings limits to pitchers without really having any scientific foundation.
"We're treating these guys as if they come to us as blank slates, and they're all starting from the same point," he said. "They're not. They all have different individual histories, different backgrounds in coaching, in what type of pitches of they've been throwing, how often they're throwing. They're all completely different."
I spoke with about a half-dozen scouts and executives in the aftermath of the news that Jose Fernandez has been advised to have Tommy John surgery, and it was as if they all worked from the same script: Don't abuse pitchers, but use them. Because nobody has any idea when or how a pitcher will break down, only that almost inevitably, they will.
How much extra money have the Giants made over the past seven years because they simply called up Tim Lincecum when he was ready for the big leagues and pitched him, without regard to service time and innings pruning?
Why? Why? Why?
It's the best question being asked in baseball.
Along the same lines: The Rockies should trade their top prospect for Jeff Samardzija, writes Mark Kiszla.
• The Marlins made it official: Jose Fernandez will miss the rest of 2014. Meanwhile, the team is spiraling downhill. Tyler Kepner writes about the rash of injuries.
Around the league
• On Tuesday's podcast, Jayson Stark discussed the Tommy John epidemic, and Adam Rubin looked at the parallels between Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey.
• Ryne Sandberg was direct in his criticism of Jonathan Papelbon. From Matt Gelb's story:
Jonathan Papelbon's soreness Sunday presented a bigger problem for Sandberg. The closer proclaimed himself able Tuesday. Sandberg, though, remained disappointed in the $50 million pitcher's unavailability.
"Well," Sandberg said, "we need a closer that can go three games in a row and close three games. No question about that."
It would have been a footnote, of course, had Antonio Bastardo saved what turned out to be a 5-4 loss to New York, or if the Phillies had better bullpen alternatives than Roberto Hernandez, who threw 99 pitches Friday and tried to save Sunday's game.
Those are flaws that will not be cured overnight.
Papelbon, meanwhile, said he harbored no regrets. He threw 21 pitches in the two games before Sunday's.
By the way: Papelbon is just about untradable, given that he is making $13 million for this year, $13 million for next year, and needs to finish 86 games for the rest of the season and next in order to vest a $13 million option for 2016.
Ruben Amaro stood by his closer.
• Josh Reddick got new walk-up music, and the Athletics won again, as Susan Slusser writes.
• The best game of last night came from the Tigers and Miguel Cabrera. After a instant replay challenge worked for the Tigers on an attempted stolen base, after Torii Hunter battled for a walk, Cabrera mashed a three-run homer -- and Victor Martinez followed with another homer. Cabrera has started crushing pitches on the outer half, as ESPN Stats & Information notes.
• Mike Minor had a strong outing against the Giants.
• Mark Appel is close to returning to a minor league affiliate.
• PED scrutiny follows Melky Cabrera, writes Jerry Crasnick.
• James Shields reached a milestone.
• An Astros pitcher continues to throw well.
• For Matt Harrison, back troubles continue to pop up.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Braves are going with a six-man rotation now, and perhaps into the future.
2. Kevin Gausman was called up and inserted into the Baltimore rotation to pitch against Justin Verlander today.
3. Jake Peavy wants to stay in Boston.
Dings and dents
1. Carlos Quentin was back in the lineup, as Corey Brock writes.
2. The Blue Jays are waiting for Colby Rasmus to heal.
3. Carlos Beltran hopes to avoid surgery, writes Erik Boland.
4. Omar Infante landed on the disabled list, writes Andy McCullough.
5. Jay Bruce might be back faster than expected. Hal McCoy writes about the miracles of modern medicine.
6. Ryan Braun was reinstated from the DL.
7. Byron Buxton aggravated a previous injury, writes Andy Greder.
Tuesday's games
1. Stephen Strasburg made two big mistakes, writes James Wagner.
2. Errors undercut Cliff Lee.
3. Toronto backed R.A. Dickey.
4. Chase Headley mashed a big homer, and the Padres are closing in on .500.
5. The Mets outlasted the Yankees in a really ugly game. Joe Girardi is unsure why he was ejected from the game.
6. Jake Peavy is struggled with his command. David Ortiz had a big day.
7. The Cardinals slogged their way to a win.
8. Marco Estrada was outstanding.
9. Chris Parmelee had a moment.
10. David Price and the Rays had a really, really nice win.
11. Bronson Arroyo was "the man."
NL East
• Matt Williams has dealt with a lot of adversity, writes Thomas Boswell.
• Zack Wheeler's struggles are are a real concern for the Mets.
NL Central
• Javier Baez is struggling. Though the years, I've had some GMs and farm directors tell me they like it when a touted prospect has a slump like this, so that they learn to work through problems -- and before they reach the big leagues and hit the inevitable rough spots, they can have a been-there, done-that feeling about conquering a slide.
• The Pirates and Brewers talked again about their fight.
• Andrew McCutchen is seeing a lot of off-speed pitches, writes Karen Price.
• Everybody is accountable, says GM John Mozeliak.
• Jake Arrieta taxed the rest of the staff, as Mark Gonzales writes.
NL West
• Buster Posey had a tough night.
• Josh Beckett got it done again.
AL East
• Mark Buehrle has been old reliable.
• Caleb Joseph had an outstanding game.
AL Central
• For the White Sox, new faces bring new hope.
AL West
• Sean Doolittle is thriving in the bullpen.
• Mike Trout is a really popular guy.
• Hisashi Iwakuma was let down.
Lastly
• Torii Hunter came to the defense of an umpire.
• Brad Ausmus had a wry thought about the benches and bullpens clearing.
• Terry Francona was picked for the All-Star staff.
• The Twins are talking about adding softer padding.
• Nobody knows how Rougned Odor made this play.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Halos' Richards proving to be the real deal.
Garrett Richards of the Los Angeles Angels, the 25-year-old who has transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation, has quickly developed a reputation for having some of the most dominant stuff in the sport.
Richards shut down the Phillies on Wednesday, just his latest piece of pitching art. Think about some of the numbers he has generated:
A) We hear all the time about how a pitcher's average fastball velocity has diminished. Richard's velocity has gone up by, incredibly, a full mile per hour (from 94.8 to 96 mph). Only two pitchers have posted a higher velocity average with their fastballs than Richards.
B) He has pitched 52 innings so far this season and allowed just one home run. One. That's tied with Mark Buehrle for the lowest HR/9 rate in the big leagues (among qualified pitchers).
C) Only one pitcher, Ervin Santana, has generated a lower percentage of contact on pitches thrown outside the strike zone than Richard. In other words, hitters are flailing.
D) Only Johnny Cueto (.463) has a lower opponents' OPS than Richards' .513 mark.
Garrett Richards, 2013 to 2014
Comparing his first eight starts from 2013 to his first eight starts from 2014.
Statistic 2013 2014
W-L 2-3 4-0
ERA 3.98 2.42
Opp BA .226 .191
K/9 rate 5.9 9.3
Fellow Angels starter Jered Weaver mentioned recently that Richards reminds him of a younger A.J. Burnett, with overpowering stuff that seemingly moves all over the place and makes for a difficult at-bat against him. Another evaluator mentioned Max Scherzer as a comparable because it seems hitters have very little to swing at.
Regardless of whom he compares to, the Angels have a tremendous weapon to complement Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Tyler Skaggs. Remember how the big question for the Angels over the winter was whether they would be able to rebuild their rotation? Right now, the team ranks fifth among AL clubs in starters' ERA.
Here's more from ESPN Stats and Info on how Richards overwhelmed the Phillies:
A) He went to only one 3-ball count (and ended up getting strikeout); in his seven previous starts, Richards averaged six 3-ball counts per game.
B) That allowed Richards to go walk-free for the first time in 16 starts.
C) He stayed down in the zone, throwing a season-high 57.5 percent of his pitches down in the strike zone or below.
D) And finally, even though he went back and forth between the Angels' bullpen and rotation last season, Richards' improvements this season have his ERA at 2.42, best among Angels starters.
Then there's this from Elias: Richards is now 3–0 in six road starts this season, with a 1.38 ERA and a .133 opponents' batting average. In the past 100 years, only two other pitchers have owned an ERA under 1.40 with a batting average under .140 after their first six road starts of a season, Pedro Martinez for the 1997 Expos (0.97 ERA, .134 opponents' BA) and Reb Russell for the 1916 White Sox (1.20 ERA, .137 opponents' BA).
Around the league
• On Wednesday's podcast, Tim Kurkjian discussed the Jose Fernandez injury and the question of deferring on an opportunity to win, as well as Josh Reddick's walk-up music, and Jesus Ortiz assessed the current and future status of the Houston Astros, noting there are folks on the staff who want a particular prospect promoted.
• Major League Baseball is forming a search committee for the next commissioner, writes Bill Madden and Christian Red. Sources say that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf argued strongly for this, believing it was more appropriate for owners to search for the next leader of the sport rather than have current commish Bud Selig privately lobby for votes on behalf of his preferred successor, Rob Manfred. So far, Manfred is said to have the backing of about two-thirds of the teams, with executive vice president Tim Brosnan running in second in terms of support.
Some of the owners believe Selig shouldn't have a pivotal role in the choice, or at the very least he should a much less important role than current owners, who have more personally invested in the future of the game than Selig does.
• Tommy John surgery has almost clinched the title as the lead baseball injury of 2014, claiming Fernandez and others. But injuries from sliding headfirst stands out as the No. 2 injury so far, with Ben Zobrist of the Rays dislocating his left thumb sliding headfirst into second base Wednesday. Meanwhile, Ryan Zimmerman's thumb is still healing.
• While the rival Angels rotation is flourishing behind Richards, the Texas Rangers, who have used the disabled list five times more than any other team, now must cope with the loss of two-fifths of their starting rotation, following the news that Matt Harrison and Martin Perez have suffered significant injuries.
The Rangers had a terrible day Wednesday, capped off with a loss. Texas will fill the spots internally, and the team has no choice but to carry on, writes Evan Grant, even though injuries are crushing it, writes Richard Durrett.
• Masahiro Tanaka shut out the Mets on Wednesday, reinforcing his standing as "The guy holding up the Yankees." ESPN The Magazine's cover story this week is on Tanaka, built on these two moments: back-to-back homers by slugger David Ortiz and then Mike Napoli.
Tanaka was right on the money Wednesday, writes Tara Sullivan. And courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info, here's how Tanaka beat the Mets:
A) Tanaka matched his season high with 22 swings-and-misses against a Mets team that is strikeout-prone. He also had 22 in his second start of the season against the Orioles.
B) The Mets had trouble with Tanaka's slider and his splitter. He threw the former 20 times and the Mets did not put any of them in play; they took seven swings, missing on six and hitting one foul ball. The pitch netted Tanaka three of his eight strikeouts.
C) Tanaka threw 28 splitters, against which the Mets hit into eight outs and managed only one baserunner.
Tanaka became the first Yankees rookie to begin his career 6-0 as a starter since Hall of Famer ****** Ford went 9-0 in 12 starts in 1950. He also was just the second Yankee to throw a shutout against the Mets -- Andy Pettitte shut out the Mets at home back in 2002 -- and the first to do it on the road.
• Meanwhile, fellow Yankees starter CC Sabathia's knee has a degenerative condition.
• Nothing can stop Jose Abreu, apparently, other than a sore ankle.
• Justin Verlander beat the Orioles and sent a message in the process. Only Verlander knows what's really going on, but he and Nelson Cruz do have some history. As the Rangers advanced to the World Series in 2011, Cruz turned on a 100 mph Verlander fastball and hit a home run -- you can see it here at about the 2:15 mark -- a velocity reading that Cruz noted.
• Doug Fister threw the ball well Wednesday.
• Mike Moustakas waged a subtle protest after having a good game Wednesday, and he made the media mad.
• A Marlins rookie quieted the Dodger Stadium crowd.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Braves changed their minds again: They'll stick with a five-man rotation.
2. Kyle Farnsworth is mad at the Mets following his release.
3. Tommy Hunter may be out as the closer of the Orioles.
4. Kolten Wong is back for the Cardinals.
5. The Marlins signed veteran Randy Wolf.
6. Jeff Keppinger was designated for assignment by the White Sox.
Dings and dents
1. Jason Grilli awaits the next step of his rehabilitation, writes Bill Brink.
2. Dillon Gee is having shoulder issues.
3. Michael Brantley is dealing with some back tightness.
4. Jaime Garcia will return to the Cardinals' rotation Sunday.
5. A's outfielder Coco Crisp could be back Friday.
6. A.J. Ellis was activated.
7. Everything looks like a thumbs-up for a couple of ailing Mariners pitchers.
Wednesday's games
1. Starling Marte and Francisco Liriano helped push the Pirates to a win.
2. Felix Doubront had a good outing.
3. The Indians went off.
4. George Springer blasted a home run.
5. Brad Ziegler had a tough inning.
6. The Mariners were shut down again.
NL East
• The Phillies have a whole bunch of problems, as David Murphy writes.
• Chase Utley is driving the ball.
NL Central
• Francisco Rodriguez's changeup has been a problem of late.
• Todd Frazier has been part of the Reds' solution, writes John Fay.
• The Cubs' Kris Bryant is killing it in Double-A.
NL West
• Troy Tulowitzki was ejected Wednesday.
• Yonder Alonso is finding his way.
• Gregor Blanco had a great day, as Henry Schulman writes.
AL East
• Kevin Gausman wasn't thrilled with his performance Wednesday.
• Xander Bogaerts got a boost.
• Red Sox manager John Farrell says he's sticking with his youngsters.
• The Jays' bullpen absorbed a beating.
AL Central
• Aaron Hicks has been told he needs to prepare better.
AL West
• The Angels are carrying on in spite of injuries, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Richards shut down the Phillies on Wednesday, just his latest piece of pitching art. Think about some of the numbers he has generated:
A) We hear all the time about how a pitcher's average fastball velocity has diminished. Richard's velocity has gone up by, incredibly, a full mile per hour (from 94.8 to 96 mph). Only two pitchers have posted a higher velocity average with their fastballs than Richards.
B) He has pitched 52 innings so far this season and allowed just one home run. One. That's tied with Mark Buehrle for the lowest HR/9 rate in the big leagues (among qualified pitchers).
C) Only one pitcher, Ervin Santana, has generated a lower percentage of contact on pitches thrown outside the strike zone than Richard. In other words, hitters are flailing.
D) Only Johnny Cueto (.463) has a lower opponents' OPS than Richards' .513 mark.
Garrett Richards, 2013 to 2014
Comparing his first eight starts from 2013 to his first eight starts from 2014.
Statistic 2013 2014
W-L 2-3 4-0
ERA 3.98 2.42
Opp BA .226 .191
K/9 rate 5.9 9.3
Fellow Angels starter Jered Weaver mentioned recently that Richards reminds him of a younger A.J. Burnett, with overpowering stuff that seemingly moves all over the place and makes for a difficult at-bat against him. Another evaluator mentioned Max Scherzer as a comparable because it seems hitters have very little to swing at.
Regardless of whom he compares to, the Angels have a tremendous weapon to complement Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Tyler Skaggs. Remember how the big question for the Angels over the winter was whether they would be able to rebuild their rotation? Right now, the team ranks fifth among AL clubs in starters' ERA.
Here's more from ESPN Stats and Info on how Richards overwhelmed the Phillies:
A) He went to only one 3-ball count (and ended up getting strikeout); in his seven previous starts, Richards averaged six 3-ball counts per game.
B) That allowed Richards to go walk-free for the first time in 16 starts.
C) He stayed down in the zone, throwing a season-high 57.5 percent of his pitches down in the strike zone or below.
D) And finally, even though he went back and forth between the Angels' bullpen and rotation last season, Richards' improvements this season have his ERA at 2.42, best among Angels starters.
Then there's this from Elias: Richards is now 3–0 in six road starts this season, with a 1.38 ERA and a .133 opponents' batting average. In the past 100 years, only two other pitchers have owned an ERA under 1.40 with a batting average under .140 after their first six road starts of a season, Pedro Martinez for the 1997 Expos (0.97 ERA, .134 opponents' BA) and Reb Russell for the 1916 White Sox (1.20 ERA, .137 opponents' BA).
Around the league
• On Wednesday's podcast, Tim Kurkjian discussed the Jose Fernandez injury and the question of deferring on an opportunity to win, as well as Josh Reddick's walk-up music, and Jesus Ortiz assessed the current and future status of the Houston Astros, noting there are folks on the staff who want a particular prospect promoted.
• Major League Baseball is forming a search committee for the next commissioner, writes Bill Madden and Christian Red. Sources say that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf argued strongly for this, believing it was more appropriate for owners to search for the next leader of the sport rather than have current commish Bud Selig privately lobby for votes on behalf of his preferred successor, Rob Manfred. So far, Manfred is said to have the backing of about two-thirds of the teams, with executive vice president Tim Brosnan running in second in terms of support.
Some of the owners believe Selig shouldn't have a pivotal role in the choice, or at the very least he should a much less important role than current owners, who have more personally invested in the future of the game than Selig does.
• Tommy John surgery has almost clinched the title as the lead baseball injury of 2014, claiming Fernandez and others. But injuries from sliding headfirst stands out as the No. 2 injury so far, with Ben Zobrist of the Rays dislocating his left thumb sliding headfirst into second base Wednesday. Meanwhile, Ryan Zimmerman's thumb is still healing.
• While the rival Angels rotation is flourishing behind Richards, the Texas Rangers, who have used the disabled list five times more than any other team, now must cope with the loss of two-fifths of their starting rotation, following the news that Matt Harrison and Martin Perez have suffered significant injuries.
The Rangers had a terrible day Wednesday, capped off with a loss. Texas will fill the spots internally, and the team has no choice but to carry on, writes Evan Grant, even though injuries are crushing it, writes Richard Durrett.
• Masahiro Tanaka shut out the Mets on Wednesday, reinforcing his standing as "The guy holding up the Yankees." ESPN The Magazine's cover story this week is on Tanaka, built on these two moments: back-to-back homers by slugger David Ortiz and then Mike Napoli.
Tanaka was right on the money Wednesday, writes Tara Sullivan. And courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info, here's how Tanaka beat the Mets:
A) Tanaka matched his season high with 22 swings-and-misses against a Mets team that is strikeout-prone. He also had 22 in his second start of the season against the Orioles.
B) The Mets had trouble with Tanaka's slider and his splitter. He threw the former 20 times and the Mets did not put any of them in play; they took seven swings, missing on six and hitting one foul ball. The pitch netted Tanaka three of his eight strikeouts.
C) Tanaka threw 28 splitters, against which the Mets hit into eight outs and managed only one baserunner.
Tanaka became the first Yankees rookie to begin his career 6-0 as a starter since Hall of Famer ****** Ford went 9-0 in 12 starts in 1950. He also was just the second Yankee to throw a shutout against the Mets -- Andy Pettitte shut out the Mets at home back in 2002 -- and the first to do it on the road.
• Meanwhile, fellow Yankees starter CC Sabathia's knee has a degenerative condition.
• Nothing can stop Jose Abreu, apparently, other than a sore ankle.
• Justin Verlander beat the Orioles and sent a message in the process. Only Verlander knows what's really going on, but he and Nelson Cruz do have some history. As the Rangers advanced to the World Series in 2011, Cruz turned on a 100 mph Verlander fastball and hit a home run -- you can see it here at about the 2:15 mark -- a velocity reading that Cruz noted.
• Doug Fister threw the ball well Wednesday.
• Mike Moustakas waged a subtle protest after having a good game Wednesday, and he made the media mad.
• A Marlins rookie quieted the Dodger Stadium crowd.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Braves changed their minds again: They'll stick with a five-man rotation.
2. Kyle Farnsworth is mad at the Mets following his release.
3. Tommy Hunter may be out as the closer of the Orioles.
4. Kolten Wong is back for the Cardinals.
5. The Marlins signed veteran Randy Wolf.
6. Jeff Keppinger was designated for assignment by the White Sox.
Dings and dents
1. Jason Grilli awaits the next step of his rehabilitation, writes Bill Brink.
2. Dillon Gee is having shoulder issues.
3. Michael Brantley is dealing with some back tightness.
4. Jaime Garcia will return to the Cardinals' rotation Sunday.
5. A's outfielder Coco Crisp could be back Friday.
6. A.J. Ellis was activated.
7. Everything looks like a thumbs-up for a couple of ailing Mariners pitchers.
Wednesday's games
1. Starling Marte and Francisco Liriano helped push the Pirates to a win.
2. Felix Doubront had a good outing.
3. The Indians went off.
4. George Springer blasted a home run.
5. Brad Ziegler had a tough inning.
6. The Mariners were shut down again.
NL East
• The Phillies have a whole bunch of problems, as David Murphy writes.
• Chase Utley is driving the ball.
NL Central
• Francisco Rodriguez's changeup has been a problem of late.
• Todd Frazier has been part of the Reds' solution, writes John Fay.
• The Cubs' Kris Bryant is killing it in Double-A.
NL West
• Troy Tulowitzki was ejected Wednesday.
• Yonder Alonso is finding his way.
• Gregor Blanco had a great day, as Henry Schulman writes.
AL East
• Kevin Gausman wasn't thrilled with his performance Wednesday.
• Xander Bogaerts got a boost.
• Red Sox manager John Farrell says he's sticking with his youngsters.
• The Jays' bullpen absorbed a beating.
AL Central
• Aaron Hicks has been told he needs to prepare better.
AL West
• The Angels are carrying on in spite of injuries, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
And today will be better than yesterday.
SCHOOL: IndianaHT: 6-0WT: 240POS: 1B
