2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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cliff lee throws 10 shutout innings with nothing to show for it... probably one of the best games i've seen in a while.
 
cliff lee throws 10 shutout innings with nothing to show for it... probably one of the best games i've seen in a while.
 
Josh Beckett’s New Approach.
Spoiler [+]
Josh Beckett hasn’t looked the same this season. After an off-season as public enemy No. 1 to Red Sox fans, Beckett could have benefited from a strong start this year. Unfortunately for the 31-year-old, he had a disastrous season debut — one in which he allowed five home runs in just 4.2 innings.

Since then, though, Beckett has been pretty effective. While it’s tough to draw conclusions from small samples, Beckett might be using a new approach on the mound. And if his past two starts are any indication, that approach is working.

Beckett appears to be throwing his cutter more often this season. While is usage is only slightly up (20.1% last season, to 23.3% this year), Beckett hasn’t been throwing his fastball as much. Depending on which tool you look at, Beckett may actually be throwing his cutter more often than his fastball.

It’s actually a bit puzzling why Beckett would choose to throw his fastball less often. It rated as his best pitch last season and produced a 15.6 pitch value. That wasn’t all volume either, as his wFB/C of 1.03 rated second to his 1.76 change-up. So why the change?

While we can’t be certain, there are some factors that could explain Beckett’s reliance on his cutter. Beckett’s fastball velocity has been down thus far: He’s only averaging 91.5 mph this season — compared to 93.0 mph last year. Beckett could be compensating for that lack of velocity by throwing more cutters. Early season velocity is typically lower than usual — and Beckett was dealing with a thumb injury during the spring — so this could just be a small-sample blip.

That’s not to say he hasn’t been effective, and Beckett might want to continue using his cutter. According to Joe Lefkowitz’s pitch f/x site, Beckett has primarily used the cutter to neutralize right-handed batters. In Beckett’s first start, he threw his cutter 20 times, which resulted in four swinging strikes. Beckett mixed his pitches a bit better in his second start, and he only managed one swinging strike on his cutter — though he had a much better game.

Last night, Beckett’s cutter really became a weapon. Relying on mostly a four-seam fastball and the cutter, Beckett held the Texas Rangers to three runs over seven innings while walking just one batter. It wasn’t a phenomenal performance, but his cutter looked very good. Beckett threw 31 cutters last night, which resulted in eight swinging strikes. That was good for a 25.8% swinging-strike rate. It also has been encouraging to see Beckett’s velocity slowly creep up after each of his starts. Last night, his average fastball was much closer to 92 mph. That’s not a huge change, but it could be a sign that he’ll regain some of his velocity as the season moves on.

All told, Beckett’s cutter is producing more whiffs so far than any pitch, other than his change-up. His cutter has also produced the highest ground-ball rate among all his pitches. While his terrible season debut marred his early results, Beckett has been effective his last two times out. And that could at least partly be a result of his increased reliance on the cutter.

Beckett no longer has the velocity to succeed as a true power pitcher. But to remain effective, he has begun to rely on another pitch — one in which he seems to be gaining confidence. By using his cutter more frequently this year, Beckett will prove that his first start in 2012 was an anomaly.


FanGraphs Prospect Stock Market.
Spoiler [+]
Nick Ahmed, SS, Atlanta Braves
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Monitor closely

Atlanta targeted Ahmed with its second round draft pick in 2011 with the hope that he could move quickly through the system in need of middle infield depth. The shortstop is not flashy in the field but he’s steady, makes all the plays and has a strong arm. At the plate, he’s more if a No. 2 hitter with good barrel control and the ability to play small ball. He’s shown his ability to get on base early in 2012 by walking eight times in his first 11 games. He’s struck out just three times. Ahmed also possesses good speed and has stolen six bases in as many tries. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on even if he’s currently stuck behind Tyler Pastornicky and Andrelton Simmons on the shortstop depth chart.

Edwar Cabrera, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Monitor closely

Cabrera flirted with a no-hitter on Tuesday night, settling instead for a one-hitter in eight innings of work. He did not walk a batter and struck out eight. He has now given up just nine hits in his first 20 double-A innings. Cabrera shown good control with just two walks to go along with 18 strikeouts. He also has a tendency to induce a high number of ground-ball outs, which should serve him well while pitching in Colorado. The left-hander is a little undersized and is already 24 years old. He profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

Tyler Goeddel, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Current Level: A-
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 12th
Current Value: Monitor closely

Two of my favorite over-slot deals in the 2011 draft included Goeddel and Matt Dean of the Toronto Blue Jays. Both prep third basemen had similar talent levels but the organizations’ handling of them has been much different. Dean is still playing at extended spring training and will likely be assigned to a short-season league in June. Goeddel, on the other hand, was given a more aggressive assignment to low-A ball. He’s gotten off to a nice start with an average at .371 and five extra base hits in nine games. On the down side, he’s struck out 10 times. Clearly the organization has a pretty talented guy already manning the hot corner at the big league level in Evan Longoria but Goeddel is still a ways away and he is athletic enough to move to another position if the need arises.

Miles Head, 3B, Oakland Athletics
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 15th (Boston)
Current Value: Monitor Closely

Head made his way onto my Top 15 list for the Red Sox before his trade to the A’s, which saw now-injured reliever Andrew Bailey head the other way. I took Head over some other interesting players because I really believed in his bat, even though Boston had pretty much given up on him as a third baseman and his future appeared to include a first baseman’s glove. With his trade to Oakland, though, Head has been given a second chance at the hot corner to a degree as he’s made four starts there this year (seven at 1B, one at DH). At the plate, the prospect has enjoyed his time in the California League with a batting average of more than .400, 20 hits in 12 games and nine extra base hits. Oakland’s third base position is a giant gapping hole so Head could become a valuable contributor even if he can only handle the position on a part-time basis.

Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago White Sox
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 9th
Current Value: Monitor Closely

Take a raw college athlete and then make him miss a full year of development time due to injury and you find yourself with Mitchell. The former first round pick has always been loaded with ability but he’s struggled to translate those skills to the baseball diamond. Despite hitting just .222 with 183 strikeouts in 129 games in 2011, the White Sox organization made the ballsy move of promoting Mitchell to double-A to begin the 2012 season. That decision had the chance to be very, very ugly but things have actually worked out OK so far. With a more patient approach thus far he’s shown some improvement. He has 11 walks in 13 games but strikeouts continue to plague him: He has 14 Ks. Mitchell still has a lot of adjustments to make but he’s starting to show some signs of figuring things out.


Angels Extend Erick Aybar.
Spoiler [+]
Forgoing free agency is the new hotness. After already locking up his double play partner Howie Kendrick back in January, the Angels gave Erick Aybar a reported four year, $35 million contract extension today. Aybar is under contract for 2012 at just over $5 million, so this represents a pretty nice raise in annual average value, and assuming that the contract covers 2013-2016, it will keep Aybar in Anaheim through his age 32 season.

This also represents a pretty significant commitment from the Angels towards a player whose skills aren’t generally valued all that highly on the open market. While Aybar has averaged +3.2 WAR per season over the last three years, most of that value has come from his defense and baserunning abilities, as he’s hit just .280/.327/.391. Those aren’t terrible offensive numbers from a shortstop, but they came during his expected peak years and put him in the same category as guys like Jimmy Rollins, Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, and Cliff Pennington. There’s nothing wrong with any of these guys, but this class of ballplayer has traditionally not struck it rich in free agency.

For instance, Rollins just hit the free agent market this past winter with the same basic set of skills that Aybar brings to the table. He was coming off a +3.8 WAR season with a 106 wRC+, but had to settle for 3 year, $33 million contract from the Phillies after few teams expressed interest in his services. Rollins did turn 33 over the winter, so his advancing age was certainly a factor, but he still didn’t do that much better in AAV than Aybar got in this extension, and Rollins has a better overall track record.

In terms of age, Peralta and Hardy are better fits, as they both signed their deals headed into their late-20s. Peralta was a comparable hitter to Aybar but with a significantly worse defensive reputation, and he ended up settling for a 2 year, $12 million contract with the Tigers that has turned out to be an excellent investment by Detroit. Hardy was coming off a stronger season than anything Aybar has had in his career, posting a 113 wRC+ and his usual quality defense, but settled for just $21 million over three years from the Orioles. Injury problems were a factor, and again, Hardy isn’t a perfect comp for Aybar’s skillset, but he does show that the market for quality-shortstops-with-some-question-marks wasn’t exactly blowing up.

What about similar-#@+ guys who didn’t make it to free agency? In January of 2011, Jason Bartlett signed a two year, $11 million deal with San Diego that bought out his final year of arbitration eligibility and his first year of free agency. Like Aybar, Bartlett is a good glove guy with an okay bat, and he got far less than what Aybar just signed for. He was also a couple of years older, but 31 versus 29 doesn’t explain 4/35 versus 2/11.

Dropping down one service time year, a few guys who were two years from free agency have also signed extensions recently – Stephen Drew (2/14), Asdrubal Cabrera (2/16), and Yunel Escobar (2/10). In each case, the teams decided that they’d rather go shorter term, and I’d guess that it’s likely that they were aware that these players weren’t likely to get huge raises in free agency, so they had less to gain by locking up multiple free agent years in a long term deal.

Really, the only contract that looks even remotely similar to Aybar’s new deal is the four year, $32 million extension that Alexei Ramirez got from the White Sox. Like Aybar, Ramirez is a good-but-not-great hitter who accumulates a lot of value with the glove, and the White Sox bought out Ramirez’s final two years of arbitration and first two years of free agency by giving him an AAV extremely similar to what Aybar just got from the Angels. Ramirez was actually three years from free agency when he signed the deal, so it’s quite likely that Aybar’s representatives used this as a negotiating point, noting that he had less leverage at the time the White Sox extended him, so Aybar should get a premium on top of this type of contract.

If the Ramirez extension was the reference point, than the Aybar extension looks completely normal, or maybe even a touch light, but in reality, it stands out as a bit of an outlier given other contracts signed by similar shortstops over the last few years. For the most part, the standard deal for this type of player has been 2-3 years for something a bit shy of the AAV that Aybar got from the Angels. That he was able to get four years while still under contract for one more season is a bit of a surprise.

That doesn’t mean it’s a bad signing, of course. You could easily argue that most of these other deals were too team friendly, and that the market has been undervaluing this type of player based on a lack of appreciation for position scarcity and defensive value. If Aybar’s deal signifies a market adjustment, it may very well be one that was needed to bring prices more in line with actual value provided. $9 million per year is essentially what you’d expect a league average player to get as a free agent, and Aybar’s established himself as a better-than-average player. So, this isn’t a deal that I expect the Angels are going to regret. It’s just a little more than we might have expected him to get based on recent history.

Jamie Moyer’s Mystical Changeup.

Spoiler [+]
Jamie Moyer made major league history Tuesday night in Colorado, becoming the oldest pitcher to record a win, at age 49. I’d also be willing to bet Moyer made history in another fashion: as the first non-knuckleball pitcher to record a win without cracking 80 MPH on the gun. Regardless of if my bet would pay, Moyer’s accomplishment is made all the more impressive by the low numbers flashing on the gun.

How did he do it? As any good pitching coach at any level teaches their pupils: change speeds. Moyer had his changeup working magically Tuesday night, as he drew nine total outs with the pitch — two double plays, two other groundouts, and three flyouts.

Unless a changeup has incredible movement, there needs to be a large difference between the speed of the fastball and the changeup for the pitch to be effective. For example, two of the league’s best changeup artists in Tim Lincecum and Shaun Marcum average over a six MPH difference between the fastball and the changeup. Moyer’s changeup was just over five MPH slower than his fastball last night, which is a similar proportional difference given the overall lower velocities of Moyer’s hurls. This allowed Moyer, as odd as this sounds, to set batters up with his 79 MPH fastball to get outs with the 74 MPH changeup.

Or, in the case of Jason Bartlett, who grounded into a double play in the fifth inning, set up the 71 MPH changeup with the 76 MPH fastball.

Set ‘em up:

moyerfast.gif


And knock ‘em down:

moyerchange.gif


Yes, they both look slow, but these nearly imperceptible differences are what have allowed Moyer to succeed over his long career in the first place, whether he was topping out at 79 or 89.

Moyer placed the second pitch just outside of the center of the plate and low in the zone. Had the pitch been 76 instead of 71, Bartlett may have lined it up the middle or to right field for a base hit. Instead, Bartlett’s bat was just a touch ahead of where he wanted it to be at the point of contact — or, depending on your perspective, the ball was a touch behind — and the result was an easy one-hopper to Troy Tulowitzki for the double play.

This was a theme all night. When the changeup was at a noticeably different speed from the previous pitch, it produced outs. When it wasn’t — which wasn’t often — it produced hits. The eight changeups which resulted in outs were on average 4.5 MPH slower than the preceding pitch; the two singles were a mere 3.5 MPH slower coming in.

Can Moyer repeat this kind of performance? I have doubts that most MLB hitters will miss sub-80 stuff on a regular basis. They will get aggressive and hit the fastball before the changeup can even surface. Said fastball has been torched by hitters already this year — pitch type linear weights have it a whopping 4.8 runs below average per 100 pitches. His location will have to be pinpoint, his arm action will have to deceive completely, and quite frankly he’ll need a little luck. But for at least one night, Moyer proved one of the basic tenets of smart pitching: keep the hitters guessing and they won’t know what’s hit them until the zeroes are up on the scoreboard.

Surprise! Adam LaRoche Fueling Nats Quick Start.

Spoiler [+]
After Tuesday night’s games, the Washington Nationals sit atop the National League East with a record of 9-3.  Much of the team’s early success is due to outstanding pitching from both starters and relievers, who have limited opponents to 30 runs in twelve games. Only the Rangers have allowed fewer runs so far, albeit in eleven games. The Phillies have given up 33 runs.

But as good as the Nationals’ pitching has been, the Nationals have distanced themselves from Philadelphia so far with better offense: 46 runs scored for the Nationals to only 35 runs scored for the Phillies. And it’s veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche who is powering the Nats offense so far.

When you think about the best National League first basemen over the last five seasons or so, LaRoche doesn’t come to mind. Pujols, Fielder, Votto, Gonzalez, and Howard top the list. He often gets off to a slow start, turning it on offensively after the All-Star game. He doesn’t walk enough, strikes out too much, and has below-average defense.

LaRoche has bounced around the National League, playing four seasons with the Braves (2004-2007), one with the Pirates (2008), one with the Diamondbacks (2010) and two with the Nationals (2011-2012). In 2009, he was traded from the Pirates to the Red Sox in July, and six days later was traded back to Atlanta, where he played the rest of the season. A journeyman of sorts. A decent first baseman. Nothing special. That’s his rap.

The Nationals signed LaRoche to a 2-year/$15 million deal before the 2011 season. They got little value in the first year, however, as LaRoche started the season with a torn labrum in his left shoulder and eventually had season-ending surgery in July. His role on the team heading into 2012 was uncertain. Michael Morse, who took over at first base for LaRoche last season, had a career year offensively. Young phenom Bryce Harper was pushing to make the Nats’ Opening Day roster. Sure, the Nationals stilled owed LaRoche $8 million, but it wasn’t clear at start of spring training how manager Davey Johnson would use him once the season got underway.

Things have a way of working out, though. Morse injured his back. Harper was sent to Triple-A. And the Nats named LaRoche their Opening Day first baseman. He has not disappointed.

Through the first eleven games of the season (so, all small sample size caveats apply), LaRoche was batting .333/.423/.533 for a .414 wOBA. His on-base average is getting a big boost from a higher-than-career-average 13.5 percent walk rate. And his walk rate is up, in part, because he’s seeing more pitches-per-plate appearance (4.3) than in any season dating back to 2007.

Two other Nationals are also to very good starts. Leadoff hitter and shortstop Ian Desmond was hitting .346/.382/.481 heading into Tuesday night’s game against the Astros. And Jayson Werth looks to be regaining the offensive prowess (if not the power) he showed with the Phillies from 2007 to 2010. Through Monday night’s action, Werth was batting .341/.431/.432. But the rest of the Nationals lineup has not done much at all. All-Star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, second baseman Danny Espinosa, center fielder Roger Bernadina, catcher Wilson Ramos, and outfielders Xavier Nady and Mark DeRosa had all posted wOBA below the National League average of .303.

LaRoche is having the biggest impact with runners on base. He’s posted a .493 wOBA with runners on and a .425 wOBA with runners in scoring in position, numbers way ahead of his career averages.  He’s hit two of the Nationals six home runs. And he’s driven in 13 of the Nationals 46 runs scored.

Sure, his BABIP is off the charts right now at .433. He’s been lucky and benefited from playing against teams with less than stellar defense. But he’s creating his own luck by hitting line drives and fly balls a much higher clip than he has over the course of his career.  Before this season, his lowest ground ball rate was 35 percent. So far in 2012, it’s at 21. 9 percent.

At 33 years old, LaRoche is off to the best start of his career. Right now, he’s the engine powering the Nationals to their best start since the franchise moved from Montreal to Washington in 2005.

Tom Milone and the Scourge of a Weak Four-seamer.

Spoiler [+]
While velocity isn’t everything when it comes to being a successful major league starting pitcher, it’s surely a large part of the story. Starting pitchers who have a higher velocity — particularly on their four-seam fastballs — tend to have higher strikeout rates and induce weaker contact from opposing batters. And pitchers who can limit balls in play through strikeouts, tend to have lower earned run averages. Of course, not every major-league starter can sport a blazing fastball. A number of starting pitchers have not only survived, but they’ve thrived during seasons where their velocity was significantly lower than league-average.

Which brings us to the case of Oakland Athletics left-hander, Tom Milone. After starting five games as a 24-year-old for the Nationals last season, Milone was shipped out as part of the deal that sent Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez to Washington. Milone, now 25, has worked his way into the Athletics’ rotation this season — this despite an underwhelming fastball. Generally, Milone’s four-seam fastball (a pitch he throws about 54% of the time) has averaged less than 88 mph. For some perspective: In the past three seasons, major-league starters have averaged 91 mph on the four-seamer.

What are the odds that Milone can perform above league average this season, given the lack of zip on his fastball? To answer this, I looked at some similar pitchers who have played during the Pitch FX era (2007-present). Given that we only have seven starts for Milone this season, delineating his pitch repertoire is a little difficult. With such a small sample, pitch-type percentages can fluctuate quite a bit. As I mentioned earlier, Milone throws his four-seamer almost 54% of the time — and he also appears to throw a cutter 5% to 6% of the time. Last year, Milone seemed to mix in a two-seam fastball — but in two starts this year, the pitch has rarely shown up. Milone, too, has increased his changeup (his best pitch) and curve ball usage at the expense of his slider.

Since 2007, there have been only 20 seasons where a starting pitcher has thrown their average four-seam fastball less than 88 mph and threw the pitch at least 45% of the time:
[table][tr][th=""]Season[/th][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]Age[/th][th=""]LOB%[/th][th=""]FIP[/th][th=""]GB/FB[/th][th=""]HR/FB[/th][th=""]ERA-[/th][th=""]FIP-[/th][th=""]K%[/th][th=""]BB%[/th][th=""]FF% (pfx)[/th][th=""]vFF (pfx)[/th][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]33[/td][td]77.8%[/td][td]3.65[/td][td]0.63[/td][td]8.7%[/td][td]71[/td][td]83[/td][td]21.4%[/td][td]5.1%[/td][td]47.0%[/td][td]87.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Mark Buehrle[/td][td]29[/td][td]71.8%[/td][td]3.94[/td][td]1.57[/td][td]9.9%[/td][td]84[/td][td]88[/td][td]15.3%[/td][td]5.7%[/td][td]48.0%[/td][td]86.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]John Lannan[/td][td]23[/td][td]74.0%[/td][td]4.79[/td][td]2.03[/td][td]15.2%[/td][td]91[/td][td]112[/td][td]15.0%[/td][td]9.2%[/td][td]62.9%[/td][td]87.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]32[/td][td]76.0%[/td][td]4.41[/td][td]0.75[/td][td]12.1%[/td][td]91[/td][td]97[/td][td]21.4%[/td][td]7.4%[/td][td]46.1%[/td][td]87.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Scott Olsen[/td][td]24[/td][td]71.6%[/td][td]5.02[/td][td]0.88[/td][td]10.9%[/td][td]97[/td][td]115[/td][td]13.2%[/td][td]8.1%[/td][td]65.5%[/td][td]87.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Barry Zito[/td][td]31[/td][td]75.0%[/td][td]4.31[/td][td]0.94[/td][td]9.5%[/td][td]98[/td][td]104[/td][td]18.8%[/td][td]9.9%[/td][td]46.7%[/td][td]86.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Greg Smith[/td][td]24[/td][td]72.7%[/td][td]4.82[/td][td]0.75[/td][td]7.9%[/td][td]99[/td][td]115[/td][td]13.9%[/td][td]10.9%[/td][td]56.4%[/td][td]87.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Barry Zito[/td][td]29[/td][td]69.7%[/td][td]4.83[/td][td]0.96[/td][td]9.6%[/td][td]102[/td][td]107[/td][td]15.5%[/td][td]9.8%[/td][td]55.3%[/td][td]84.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Greg Maddux[/td][td]41[/td][td]68.9%[/td][td]3.58[/td][td]1.78[/td][td]7.1%[/td][td]103[/td][td]87[/td][td]12.5%[/td][td]3.0%[/td][td]63.8%[/td][td]86.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Tom Glavine[/td][td]41[/td][td]72.6%[/td][td]4.86[/td][td]1.13[/td][td]9.1%[/td][td]103[/td][td]111[/td][td]10.4%[/td][td]7.5%[/td][td]48.8%[/td][td]84.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Paul Byrd[/td][td]36[/td][td]70.6%[/td][td]4.68[/td][td]0.94[/td][td]9.5%[/td][td]104[/td][td]107[/td][td]10.5%[/td][td]3.4%[/td][td]47.6%[/td][td]85.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]32[/td][td]76.0%[/td][td]5.77[/td][td]0.95[/td][td]11.8%[/td][td]105[/td][td]122[/td][td]9.9%[/td][td]8.7%[/td][td]50.1%[/td][td]84.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Greg Maddux[/td][td]42[/td][td]64.1%[/td][td]4.09[/td][td]1.67[/td][td]10.9%[/td][td]106[/td][td]102[/td][td]12.2%[/td][td]3.7%[/td][td]53.2%[/td][td]84.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Matt Chico[/td][td]24[/td][td]73.6%[/td][td]5.56[/td][td]0.72[/td][td]9.8%[/td][td]109[/td][td]129[/td][td]12.6%[/td][td]9.9%[/td][td]53.5%[/td][td]86.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Woody Williams[/td][td]40[/td][td]73.0%[/td][td]5.57[/td][td]0.88[/td][td]12.0%[/td][td]116[/td][td]126[/td][td]12.3%[/td][td]6.4%[/td][td]52.8%[/td][td]86.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Jeff Suppan[/td][td]33[/td][td]71.2%[/td][td]5.51[/td][td]1.38[/td][td]15.7%[/td][td]117[/td][td]129[/td][td]11.5%[/td][td]8.6%[/td][td]47.4%[/td][td]87.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Barry Zito[/td][td]30[/td][td]65.7%[/td][td]4.72[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]6.8%[/td][td]120[/td][td]109[/td][td]14.7%[/td][td]12.5%[/td][td]47.7%[/td][td]85.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Chris Capuano[/td][td]32[/td][td]71.9%[/td][td]4.03[/td][td]1.04[/td][td]12.0%[/td][td]122[/td][td]108[/td][td]21.1%[/td][td]6.5%[/td][td]57.9%[/td][td]87.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]34[/td][td]67.3%[/td][td]4.44[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]8.4%[/td][td]133[/td][td]108[/td][td]12.7%[/td][td]8.3%[/td][td]54.3%[/td][td]85.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]33[/td][td]64.8%[/td][td]4.94[/td][td]1.31[/td][td]10.7%[/td][td]138[/td][td]113[/td][td]8.3%[/td][td]5.3%[/td][td]63.4%[/td][td]84.2[/td][/tr][/table]
Of those 20 seasons, only seven ended with the pitcher generating an ERA- of less than 100 (where 10o is equal to league average). And of those seven, only three featured pitchers who relied on their below-average four-seamer as much or more than Milone. (Interestingly, in all three, the pitchers were younger than 25 years old.) Those pitchers who posted a better than average ERA also benefited from a higher strand rate (LOB%) — roughly 5% — than their counterparts with worse than average ERAs. They also posted a higher strikeout percentage (K%) — 17% versus 13%. Ted Lilly’s two 20%+ seasons are pushing that up a bit, however the rates are still lower for the 100+ hurlers.

If we expand the list and look at how all pitchers performed who threw a less than 88 mph four-seam fastball we see that pitchers who rely more on their four-seamer have the deck stacked against them:
[table][tr][th=""][/th][th=""][/th][th=""]% of FF[/th][th=""]% of FF[/th][/tr][tr][td][/td][td][/td][td]>45%[/td][td]< =45%[/td][/tr][tr][td]ERA-[/td][td]>=100[/td][td]13[/td][td]17[/td][/tr][tr][td]ERA-[/td][td]<100[/td][td]7[/td][td]15[/td][/tr][tr][td][/td][td]Total[/td][td]20[/td][td]32[/td][/tr][/table]
Overall, things don’t look great for Milone. Generally, starters with four-seam velocities greater than 88 mph posted a sub-100 ERA- nearly 70% of the time — compared to only 42% for lower-velocity starters. More specifically, nearly twice as many pitchers who relied on their slower four-seam fastball more than 45% of the time posted ERAs worse than league-average. This shows that lower velocity pitchers tend to survive through locating their fastball and inducing weak contact through pitch movement. Pitchers who relied more heavily on sinkers and cutters had a better chance of outperforming their velocity than their counterparts. Milone is known to have both command and control, but when it comes to his fastball, there isn’t much movement. Given his significant reliance on his four-seamer, Milone appears to be at a disadvantage.

Additionally, while he managed to post solid strikeout rates in the minors (>=17% as a starter), Milone has averaged only 12.5% in his first seven major-league starts. This also is likely due to the reliance on his four-seamer.

All told, the comparatives for Milone don’t look favorable. Given his usage of an underwhelming four-seam fastball, it’s unlikely (but not impossible) he will be able to produce enough strikeouts and weak contact at the major-league level to perform above-average. Pitching in Oakland will certainly help him, as the ample foul ground and outfield dimensions could depress his ERA. However, given that successful comparative pitchers had the luxury of National League lineups to pitch against (Mark Buehrle being the exception), I wouldn’t bet on Milone being a member of the Athletics’ — or any other American League — rotation for the long-term.

Baker Undergoes Surprise Tommy John Surgery.

Spoiler [+]
Right-hander Scott Baker was set to undergo surgery on his elbow for a cleanup of his flexor pronator tendon earlier this week. Any elbow surgeries can result in complications for a big league pitcher, but considering the alternatives, Baker appeared to be rather lucky in terms of his diagnosis. As he said:
[The team doctor] said this is something that’s not going to repair itself. It’s not going to cure itself. It’s something that needs to be taken care of. Fortunately, he said the (UCL) ligament looked great, so I guess in a way, as bad as this is, the flexor pronator tendon is what needs to be repaired.
Click to expand...

However, when the team doctor, Dr. Altchek, opened up the elbow, he determined that the UCL was damaged to the point that it needed repair. The MRI testing done prior to the surgery completely missed the UCL damage. Now, instead of missing only six months of the 2011 season, Scott Baker will not pitch again for approximately 12-18 months.

The good new for Baker is that the success rate for Tommy John surgery is now upward of 85-92 percent. The likelihood of returning to the big leagues in some capacity appears overwhelmingly positive. Most likely, though, his next big league job will not be with the Minnesota Twins. Baker has a $9.25M club option for the 2013 season, but there is almost no conceivable way Terry Ryan and the Twins exercise that option at this point.

Few people were surprised when it was announced last week that Scott Baker needed surgery on his elbow. The right-hander struggled in spring training with elbow discomfort and a lack of velocity, throwing only 83-84 MPH with his fastball after averaging 91 MPH with that pitch a year ago. The situation just screamed significant elbow injury.

Instead, the surprising part of the story lies in the fact that doctors cleared his UCL of any damage after undergoing an MRI and subsequently discovered that the entire ligament needed repair to the point that the beginning of the 2013 season is now jeopardized for Baker. This is not unprecedented, however. I know of one major league player in the last couple of seasons who underwent multiple MRIs to uncover an elbow injury that he insisted was present, yet the MRIs consistently showed no injury. It caused friction between the player and the organization. In the end, though, the player was correct and ultimately needed surgery to repair the elbow injury, despite the multiple MRI tests that showed no damage.

For the Minnesota Twins, the surprise Tommy John surgery does nothing to change their current position. Right-handers Anthony Swarzak and Liam Hendriks have both been forced into the starting rotation to begin the year due to the injury to Scott Baker and the unfortunate family emergency that temporarily pulled Jason Marquis away from the team. Both Swarzak and Hendriks are prototypical Twins pitchers: low strikeout, low walk, high contact pitchers who walk a fine line between effectiveness and ineffectiveness at the big league level due to their lack of premium stuff. ZiPS does not project either to find game-changing success this season, either, as Swarzak is projected to compile a terrible 5.36 ERA and Hendriks a modest 4.23 ERA.

Once Jason Marquis returns to the big league club — he is slated to start on Wednesday evening against the New York Yankees in Game 3 of a four-game series — the Twins will either be able to transition Swarzak to the bullpen and allow Hendriks the opportunity to grow into a young, back-end starter the organization needs, or leave Swarzak in the rotation because he possesses more big league experience and send Hendriks back to Triple-A, where he has only thrown 49.1 career innings, for further development and to keep his arm stretched out.

No matter the decision, the starting rotation for the Twins appears to be ripping apart at the seams. Scott Baker is out for the year. Francisco Liriano has more walks than strikeouts. Carl Pavano possesses a 5.23 ERA and has seen his early-season swinging strike rate drop for the third-consecutive season. Nick Blackburn has a 5.56 ERA through two starts this year and a career 4.62 FIP. Absolutely none of things are good.

It has been a rough couple of seasons for the Minnesota Twins. They have seen their two superstars, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, battle their health and have seen their starting rotation slip from an organizational strength to a liability that should keep them from contending in the AL Central this season.

This surprise Tommy John surgery for Scott Baker is just another drop in the bucket at this point. More injuries. More bad luck. More struggles.
 
Josh Beckett’s New Approach.
Spoiler [+]
Josh Beckett hasn’t looked the same this season. After an off-season as public enemy No. 1 to Red Sox fans, Beckett could have benefited from a strong start this year. Unfortunately for the 31-year-old, he had a disastrous season debut — one in which he allowed five home runs in just 4.2 innings.

Since then, though, Beckett has been pretty effective. While it’s tough to draw conclusions from small samples, Beckett might be using a new approach on the mound. And if his past two starts are any indication, that approach is working.

Beckett appears to be throwing his cutter more often this season. While is usage is only slightly up (20.1% last season, to 23.3% this year), Beckett hasn’t been throwing his fastball as much. Depending on which tool you look at, Beckett may actually be throwing his cutter more often than his fastball.

It’s actually a bit puzzling why Beckett would choose to throw his fastball less often. It rated as his best pitch last season and produced a 15.6 pitch value. That wasn’t all volume either, as his wFB/C of 1.03 rated second to his 1.76 change-up. So why the change?

While we can’t be certain, there are some factors that could explain Beckett’s reliance on his cutter. Beckett’s fastball velocity has been down thus far: He’s only averaging 91.5 mph this season — compared to 93.0 mph last year. Beckett could be compensating for that lack of velocity by throwing more cutters. Early season velocity is typically lower than usual — and Beckett was dealing with a thumb injury during the spring — so this could just be a small-sample blip.

That’s not to say he hasn’t been effective, and Beckett might want to continue using his cutter. According to Joe Lefkowitz’s pitch f/x site, Beckett has primarily used the cutter to neutralize right-handed batters. In Beckett’s first start, he threw his cutter 20 times, which resulted in four swinging strikes. Beckett mixed his pitches a bit better in his second start, and he only managed one swinging strike on his cutter — though he had a much better game.

Last night, Beckett’s cutter really became a weapon. Relying on mostly a four-seam fastball and the cutter, Beckett held the Texas Rangers to three runs over seven innings while walking just one batter. It wasn’t a phenomenal performance, but his cutter looked very good. Beckett threw 31 cutters last night, which resulted in eight swinging strikes. That was good for a 25.8% swinging-strike rate. It also has been encouraging to see Beckett’s velocity slowly creep up after each of his starts. Last night, his average fastball was much closer to 92 mph. That’s not a huge change, but it could be a sign that he’ll regain some of his velocity as the season moves on.

All told, Beckett’s cutter is producing more whiffs so far than any pitch, other than his change-up. His cutter has also produced the highest ground-ball rate among all his pitches. While his terrible season debut marred his early results, Beckett has been effective his last two times out. And that could at least partly be a result of his increased reliance on the cutter.

Beckett no longer has the velocity to succeed as a true power pitcher. But to remain effective, he has begun to rely on another pitch — one in which he seems to be gaining confidence. By using his cutter more frequently this year, Beckett will prove that his first start in 2012 was an anomaly.


FanGraphs Prospect Stock Market.
Spoiler [+]
Nick Ahmed, SS, Atlanta Braves
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Monitor closely

Atlanta targeted Ahmed with its second round draft pick in 2011 with the hope that he could move quickly through the system in need of middle infield depth. The shortstop is not flashy in the field but he’s steady, makes all the plays and has a strong arm. At the plate, he’s more if a No. 2 hitter with good barrel control and the ability to play small ball. He’s shown his ability to get on base early in 2012 by walking eight times in his first 11 games. He’s struck out just three times. Ahmed also possesses good speed and has stolen six bases in as many tries. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on even if he’s currently stuck behind Tyler Pastornicky and Andrelton Simmons on the shortstop depth chart.

Edwar Cabrera, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Monitor closely

Cabrera flirted with a no-hitter on Tuesday night, settling instead for a one-hitter in eight innings of work. He did not walk a batter and struck out eight. He has now given up just nine hits in his first 20 double-A innings. Cabrera shown good control with just two walks to go along with 18 strikeouts. He also has a tendency to induce a high number of ground-ball outs, which should serve him well while pitching in Colorado. The left-hander is a little undersized and is already 24 years old. He profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

Tyler Goeddel, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Current Level: A-
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 12th
Current Value: Monitor closely

Two of my favorite over-slot deals in the 2011 draft included Goeddel and Matt Dean of the Toronto Blue Jays. Both prep third basemen had similar talent levels but the organizations’ handling of them has been much different. Dean is still playing at extended spring training and will likely be assigned to a short-season league in June. Goeddel, on the other hand, was given a more aggressive assignment to low-A ball. He’s gotten off to a nice start with an average at .371 and five extra base hits in nine games. On the down side, he’s struck out 10 times. Clearly the organization has a pretty talented guy already manning the hot corner at the big league level in Evan Longoria but Goeddel is still a ways away and he is athletic enough to move to another position if the need arises.

Miles Head, 3B, Oakland Athletics
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 15th (Boston)
Current Value: Monitor Closely

Head made his way onto my Top 15 list for the Red Sox before his trade to the A’s, which saw now-injured reliever Andrew Bailey head the other way. I took Head over some other interesting players because I really believed in his bat, even though Boston had pretty much given up on him as a third baseman and his future appeared to include a first baseman’s glove. With his trade to Oakland, though, Head has been given a second chance at the hot corner to a degree as he’s made four starts there this year (seven at 1B, one at DH). At the plate, the prospect has enjoyed his time in the California League with a batting average of more than .400, 20 hits in 12 games and nine extra base hits. Oakland’s third base position is a giant gapping hole so Head could become a valuable contributor even if he can only handle the position on a part-time basis.

Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago White Sox
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 9th
Current Value: Monitor Closely

Take a raw college athlete and then make him miss a full year of development time due to injury and you find yourself with Mitchell. The former first round pick has always been loaded with ability but he’s struggled to translate those skills to the baseball diamond. Despite hitting just .222 with 183 strikeouts in 129 games in 2011, the White Sox organization made the ballsy move of promoting Mitchell to double-A to begin the 2012 season. That decision had the chance to be very, very ugly but things have actually worked out OK so far. With a more patient approach thus far he’s shown some improvement. He has 11 walks in 13 games but strikeouts continue to plague him: He has 14 Ks. Mitchell still has a lot of adjustments to make but he’s starting to show some signs of figuring things out.


Angels Extend Erick Aybar.
Spoiler [+]
Forgoing free agency is the new hotness. After already locking up his double play partner Howie Kendrick back in January, the Angels gave Erick Aybar a reported four year, $35 million contract extension today. Aybar is under contract for 2012 at just over $5 million, so this represents a pretty nice raise in annual average value, and assuming that the contract covers 2013-2016, it will keep Aybar in Anaheim through his age 32 season.

This also represents a pretty significant commitment from the Angels towards a player whose skills aren’t generally valued all that highly on the open market. While Aybar has averaged +3.2 WAR per season over the last three years, most of that value has come from his defense and baserunning abilities, as he’s hit just .280/.327/.391. Those aren’t terrible offensive numbers from a shortstop, but they came during his expected peak years and put him in the same category as guys like Jimmy Rollins, Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, and Cliff Pennington. There’s nothing wrong with any of these guys, but this class of ballplayer has traditionally not struck it rich in free agency.

For instance, Rollins just hit the free agent market this past winter with the same basic set of skills that Aybar brings to the table. He was coming off a +3.8 WAR season with a 106 wRC+, but had to settle for 3 year, $33 million contract from the Phillies after few teams expressed interest in his services. Rollins did turn 33 over the winter, so his advancing age was certainly a factor, but he still didn’t do that much better in AAV than Aybar got in this extension, and Rollins has a better overall track record.

In terms of age, Peralta and Hardy are better fits, as they both signed their deals headed into their late-20s. Peralta was a comparable hitter to Aybar but with a significantly worse defensive reputation, and he ended up settling for a 2 year, $12 million contract with the Tigers that has turned out to be an excellent investment by Detroit. Hardy was coming off a stronger season than anything Aybar has had in his career, posting a 113 wRC+ and his usual quality defense, but settled for just $21 million over three years from the Orioles. Injury problems were a factor, and again, Hardy isn’t a perfect comp for Aybar’s skillset, but he does show that the market for quality-shortstops-with-some-question-marks wasn’t exactly blowing up.

What about similar-#@+ guys who didn’t make it to free agency? In January of 2011, Jason Bartlett signed a two year, $11 million deal with San Diego that bought out his final year of arbitration eligibility and his first year of free agency. Like Aybar, Bartlett is a good glove guy with an okay bat, and he got far less than what Aybar just signed for. He was also a couple of years older, but 31 versus 29 doesn’t explain 4/35 versus 2/11.

Dropping down one service time year, a few guys who were two years from free agency have also signed extensions recently – Stephen Drew (2/14), Asdrubal Cabrera (2/16), and Yunel Escobar (2/10). In each case, the teams decided that they’d rather go shorter term, and I’d guess that it’s likely that they were aware that these players weren’t likely to get huge raises in free agency, so they had less to gain by locking up multiple free agent years in a long term deal.

Really, the only contract that looks even remotely similar to Aybar’s new deal is the four year, $32 million extension that Alexei Ramirez got from the White Sox. Like Aybar, Ramirez is a good-but-not-great hitter who accumulates a lot of value with the glove, and the White Sox bought out Ramirez’s final two years of arbitration and first two years of free agency by giving him an AAV extremely similar to what Aybar just got from the Angels. Ramirez was actually three years from free agency when he signed the deal, so it’s quite likely that Aybar’s representatives used this as a negotiating point, noting that he had less leverage at the time the White Sox extended him, so Aybar should get a premium on top of this type of contract.

If the Ramirez extension was the reference point, than the Aybar extension looks completely normal, or maybe even a touch light, but in reality, it stands out as a bit of an outlier given other contracts signed by similar shortstops over the last few years. For the most part, the standard deal for this type of player has been 2-3 years for something a bit shy of the AAV that Aybar got from the Angels. That he was able to get four years while still under contract for one more season is a bit of a surprise.

That doesn’t mean it’s a bad signing, of course. You could easily argue that most of these other deals were too team friendly, and that the market has been undervaluing this type of player based on a lack of appreciation for position scarcity and defensive value. If Aybar’s deal signifies a market adjustment, it may very well be one that was needed to bring prices more in line with actual value provided. $9 million per year is essentially what you’d expect a league average player to get as a free agent, and Aybar’s established himself as a better-than-average player. So, this isn’t a deal that I expect the Angels are going to regret. It’s just a little more than we might have expected him to get based on recent history.

Jamie Moyer’s Mystical Changeup.

Spoiler [+]
Jamie Moyer made major league history Tuesday night in Colorado, becoming the oldest pitcher to record a win, at age 49. I’d also be willing to bet Moyer made history in another fashion: as the first non-knuckleball pitcher to record a win without cracking 80 MPH on the gun. Regardless of if my bet would pay, Moyer’s accomplishment is made all the more impressive by the low numbers flashing on the gun.

How did he do it? As any good pitching coach at any level teaches their pupils: change speeds. Moyer had his changeup working magically Tuesday night, as he drew nine total outs with the pitch — two double plays, two other groundouts, and three flyouts.

Unless a changeup has incredible movement, there needs to be a large difference between the speed of the fastball and the changeup for the pitch to be effective. For example, two of the league’s best changeup artists in Tim Lincecum and Shaun Marcum average over a six MPH difference between the fastball and the changeup. Moyer’s changeup was just over five MPH slower than his fastball last night, which is a similar proportional difference given the overall lower velocities of Moyer’s hurls. This allowed Moyer, as odd as this sounds, to set batters up with his 79 MPH fastball to get outs with the 74 MPH changeup.

Or, in the case of Jason Bartlett, who grounded into a double play in the fifth inning, set up the 71 MPH changeup with the 76 MPH fastball.

Set ‘em up:

moyerfast.gif


And knock ‘em down:

moyerchange.gif


Yes, they both look slow, but these nearly imperceptible differences are what have allowed Moyer to succeed over his long career in the first place, whether he was topping out at 79 or 89.

Moyer placed the second pitch just outside of the center of the plate and low in the zone. Had the pitch been 76 instead of 71, Bartlett may have lined it up the middle or to right field for a base hit. Instead, Bartlett’s bat was just a touch ahead of where he wanted it to be at the point of contact — or, depending on your perspective, the ball was a touch behind — and the result was an easy one-hopper to Troy Tulowitzki for the double play.

This was a theme all night. When the changeup was at a noticeably different speed from the previous pitch, it produced outs. When it wasn’t — which wasn’t often — it produced hits. The eight changeups which resulted in outs were on average 4.5 MPH slower than the preceding pitch; the two singles were a mere 3.5 MPH slower coming in.

Can Moyer repeat this kind of performance? I have doubts that most MLB hitters will miss sub-80 stuff on a regular basis. They will get aggressive and hit the fastball before the changeup can even surface. Said fastball has been torched by hitters already this year — pitch type linear weights have it a whopping 4.8 runs below average per 100 pitches. His location will have to be pinpoint, his arm action will have to deceive completely, and quite frankly he’ll need a little luck. But for at least one night, Moyer proved one of the basic tenets of smart pitching: keep the hitters guessing and they won’t know what’s hit them until the zeroes are up on the scoreboard.

Surprise! Adam LaRoche Fueling Nats Quick Start.

Spoiler [+]
After Tuesday night’s games, the Washington Nationals sit atop the National League East with a record of 9-3.  Much of the team’s early success is due to outstanding pitching from both starters and relievers, who have limited opponents to 30 runs in twelve games. Only the Rangers have allowed fewer runs so far, albeit in eleven games. The Phillies have given up 33 runs.

But as good as the Nationals’ pitching has been, the Nationals have distanced themselves from Philadelphia so far with better offense: 46 runs scored for the Nationals to only 35 runs scored for the Phillies. And it’s veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche who is powering the Nats offense so far.

When you think about the best National League first basemen over the last five seasons or so, LaRoche doesn’t come to mind. Pujols, Fielder, Votto, Gonzalez, and Howard top the list. He often gets off to a slow start, turning it on offensively after the All-Star game. He doesn’t walk enough, strikes out too much, and has below-average defense.

LaRoche has bounced around the National League, playing four seasons with the Braves (2004-2007), one with the Pirates (2008), one with the Diamondbacks (2010) and two with the Nationals (2011-2012). In 2009, he was traded from the Pirates to the Red Sox in July, and six days later was traded back to Atlanta, where he played the rest of the season. A journeyman of sorts. A decent first baseman. Nothing special. That’s his rap.

The Nationals signed LaRoche to a 2-year/$15 million deal before the 2011 season. They got little value in the first year, however, as LaRoche started the season with a torn labrum in his left shoulder and eventually had season-ending surgery in July. His role on the team heading into 2012 was uncertain. Michael Morse, who took over at first base for LaRoche last season, had a career year offensively. Young phenom Bryce Harper was pushing to make the Nats’ Opening Day roster. Sure, the Nationals stilled owed LaRoche $8 million, but it wasn’t clear at start of spring training how manager Davey Johnson would use him once the season got underway.

Things have a way of working out, though. Morse injured his back. Harper was sent to Triple-A. And the Nats named LaRoche their Opening Day first baseman. He has not disappointed.

Through the first eleven games of the season (so, all small sample size caveats apply), LaRoche was batting .333/.423/.533 for a .414 wOBA. His on-base average is getting a big boost from a higher-than-career-average 13.5 percent walk rate. And his walk rate is up, in part, because he’s seeing more pitches-per-plate appearance (4.3) than in any season dating back to 2007.

Two other Nationals are also to very good starts. Leadoff hitter and shortstop Ian Desmond was hitting .346/.382/.481 heading into Tuesday night’s game against the Astros. And Jayson Werth looks to be regaining the offensive prowess (if not the power) he showed with the Phillies from 2007 to 2010. Through Monday night’s action, Werth was batting .341/.431/.432. But the rest of the Nationals lineup has not done much at all. All-Star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, second baseman Danny Espinosa, center fielder Roger Bernadina, catcher Wilson Ramos, and outfielders Xavier Nady and Mark DeRosa had all posted wOBA below the National League average of .303.

LaRoche is having the biggest impact with runners on base. He’s posted a .493 wOBA with runners on and a .425 wOBA with runners in scoring in position, numbers way ahead of his career averages.  He’s hit two of the Nationals six home runs. And he’s driven in 13 of the Nationals 46 runs scored.

Sure, his BABIP is off the charts right now at .433. He’s been lucky and benefited from playing against teams with less than stellar defense. But he’s creating his own luck by hitting line drives and fly balls a much higher clip than he has over the course of his career.  Before this season, his lowest ground ball rate was 35 percent. So far in 2012, it’s at 21. 9 percent.

At 33 years old, LaRoche is off to the best start of his career. Right now, he’s the engine powering the Nationals to their best start since the franchise moved from Montreal to Washington in 2005.

Tom Milone and the Scourge of a Weak Four-seamer.

Spoiler [+]
While velocity isn’t everything when it comes to being a successful major league starting pitcher, it’s surely a large part of the story. Starting pitchers who have a higher velocity — particularly on their four-seam fastballs — tend to have higher strikeout rates and induce weaker contact from opposing batters. And pitchers who can limit balls in play through strikeouts, tend to have lower earned run averages. Of course, not every major-league starter can sport a blazing fastball. A number of starting pitchers have not only survived, but they’ve thrived during seasons where their velocity was significantly lower than league-average.

Which brings us to the case of Oakland Athletics left-hander, Tom Milone. After starting five games as a 24-year-old for the Nationals last season, Milone was shipped out as part of the deal that sent Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez to Washington. Milone, now 25, has worked his way into the Athletics’ rotation this season — this despite an underwhelming fastball. Generally, Milone’s four-seam fastball (a pitch he throws about 54% of the time) has averaged less than 88 mph. For some perspective: In the past three seasons, major-league starters have averaged 91 mph on the four-seamer.

What are the odds that Milone can perform above league average this season, given the lack of zip on his fastball? To answer this, I looked at some similar pitchers who have played during the Pitch FX era (2007-present). Given that we only have seven starts for Milone this season, delineating his pitch repertoire is a little difficult. With such a small sample, pitch-type percentages can fluctuate quite a bit. As I mentioned earlier, Milone throws his four-seamer almost 54% of the time — and he also appears to throw a cutter 5% to 6% of the time. Last year, Milone seemed to mix in a two-seam fastball — but in two starts this year, the pitch has rarely shown up. Milone, too, has increased his changeup (his best pitch) and curve ball usage at the expense of his slider.

Since 2007, there have been only 20 seasons where a starting pitcher has thrown their average four-seam fastball less than 88 mph and threw the pitch at least 45% of the time:
[table][tr][th=""]Season[/th][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]Age[/th][th=""]LOB%[/th][th=""]FIP[/th][th=""]GB/FB[/th][th=""]HR/FB[/th][th=""]ERA-[/th][th=""]FIP-[/th][th=""]K%[/th][th=""]BB%[/th][th=""]FF% (pfx)[/th][th=""]vFF (pfx)[/th][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]33[/td][td]77.8%[/td][td]3.65[/td][td]0.63[/td][td]8.7%[/td][td]71[/td][td]83[/td][td]21.4%[/td][td]5.1%[/td][td]47.0%[/td][td]87.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Mark Buehrle[/td][td]29[/td][td]71.8%[/td][td]3.94[/td][td]1.57[/td][td]9.9%[/td][td]84[/td][td]88[/td][td]15.3%[/td][td]5.7%[/td][td]48.0%[/td][td]86.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]John Lannan[/td][td]23[/td][td]74.0%[/td][td]4.79[/td][td]2.03[/td][td]15.2%[/td][td]91[/td][td]112[/td][td]15.0%[/td][td]9.2%[/td][td]62.9%[/td][td]87.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]32[/td][td]76.0%[/td][td]4.41[/td][td]0.75[/td][td]12.1%[/td][td]91[/td][td]97[/td][td]21.4%[/td][td]7.4%[/td][td]46.1%[/td][td]87.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Scott Olsen[/td][td]24[/td][td]71.6%[/td][td]5.02[/td][td]0.88[/td][td]10.9%[/td][td]97[/td][td]115[/td][td]13.2%[/td][td]8.1%[/td][td]65.5%[/td][td]87.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Barry Zito[/td][td]31[/td][td]75.0%[/td][td]4.31[/td][td]0.94[/td][td]9.5%[/td][td]98[/td][td]104[/td][td]18.8%[/td][td]9.9%[/td][td]46.7%[/td][td]86.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Greg Smith[/td][td]24[/td][td]72.7%[/td][td]4.82[/td][td]0.75[/td][td]7.9%[/td][td]99[/td][td]115[/td][td]13.9%[/td][td]10.9%[/td][td]56.4%[/td][td]87.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Barry Zito[/td][td]29[/td][td]69.7%[/td][td]4.83[/td][td]0.96[/td][td]9.6%[/td][td]102[/td][td]107[/td][td]15.5%[/td][td]9.8%[/td][td]55.3%[/td][td]84.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Greg Maddux[/td][td]41[/td][td]68.9%[/td][td]3.58[/td][td]1.78[/td][td]7.1%[/td][td]103[/td][td]87[/td][td]12.5%[/td][td]3.0%[/td][td]63.8%[/td][td]86.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Tom Glavine[/td][td]41[/td][td]72.6%[/td][td]4.86[/td][td]1.13[/td][td]9.1%[/td][td]103[/td][td]111[/td][td]10.4%[/td][td]7.5%[/td][td]48.8%[/td][td]84.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Paul Byrd[/td][td]36[/td][td]70.6%[/td][td]4.68[/td][td]0.94[/td][td]9.5%[/td][td]104[/td][td]107[/td][td]10.5%[/td][td]3.4%[/td][td]47.6%[/td][td]85.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]32[/td][td]76.0%[/td][td]5.77[/td][td]0.95[/td][td]11.8%[/td][td]105[/td][td]122[/td][td]9.9%[/td][td]8.7%[/td][td]50.1%[/td][td]84.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Greg Maddux[/td][td]42[/td][td]64.1%[/td][td]4.09[/td][td]1.67[/td][td]10.9%[/td][td]106[/td][td]102[/td][td]12.2%[/td][td]3.7%[/td][td]53.2%[/td][td]84.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Matt Chico[/td][td]24[/td][td]73.6%[/td][td]5.56[/td][td]0.72[/td][td]9.8%[/td][td]109[/td][td]129[/td][td]12.6%[/td][td]9.9%[/td][td]53.5%[/td][td]86.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Woody Williams[/td][td]40[/td][td]73.0%[/td][td]5.57[/td][td]0.88[/td][td]12.0%[/td][td]116[/td][td]126[/td][td]12.3%[/td][td]6.4%[/td][td]52.8%[/td][td]86.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Jeff Suppan[/td][td]33[/td][td]71.2%[/td][td]5.51[/td][td]1.38[/td][td]15.7%[/td][td]117[/td][td]129[/td][td]11.5%[/td][td]8.6%[/td][td]47.4%[/td][td]87.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Barry Zito[/td][td]30[/td][td]65.7%[/td][td]4.72[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]6.8%[/td][td]120[/td][td]109[/td][td]14.7%[/td][td]12.5%[/td][td]47.7%[/td][td]85.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Chris Capuano[/td][td]32[/td][td]71.9%[/td][td]4.03[/td][td]1.04[/td][td]12.0%[/td][td]122[/td][td]108[/td][td]21.1%[/td][td]6.5%[/td][td]57.9%[/td][td]87.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]34[/td][td]67.3%[/td][td]4.44[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]8.4%[/td][td]133[/td][td]108[/td][td]12.7%[/td][td]8.3%[/td][td]54.3%[/td][td]85.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]33[/td][td]64.8%[/td][td]4.94[/td][td]1.31[/td][td]10.7%[/td][td]138[/td][td]113[/td][td]8.3%[/td][td]5.3%[/td][td]63.4%[/td][td]84.2[/td][/tr][/table]
Of those 20 seasons, only seven ended with the pitcher generating an ERA- of less than 100 (where 10o is equal to league average). And of those seven, only three featured pitchers who relied on their below-average four-seamer as much or more than Milone. (Interestingly, in all three, the pitchers were younger than 25 years old.) Those pitchers who posted a better than average ERA also benefited from a higher strand rate (LOB%) — roughly 5% — than their counterparts with worse than average ERAs. They also posted a higher strikeout percentage (K%) — 17% versus 13%. Ted Lilly’s two 20%+ seasons are pushing that up a bit, however the rates are still lower for the 100+ hurlers.

If we expand the list and look at how all pitchers performed who threw a less than 88 mph four-seam fastball we see that pitchers who rely more on their four-seamer have the deck stacked against them:
[table][tr][th=""][/th][th=""][/th][th=""]% of FF[/th][th=""]% of FF[/th][/tr][tr][td][/td][td][/td][td]>45%[/td][td]< =45%[/td][/tr][tr][td]ERA-[/td][td]>=100[/td][td]13[/td][td]17[/td][/tr][tr][td]ERA-[/td][td]<100[/td][td]7[/td][td]15[/td][/tr][tr][td][/td][td]Total[/td][td]20[/td][td]32[/td][/tr][/table]
Overall, things don’t look great for Milone. Generally, starters with four-seam velocities greater than 88 mph posted a sub-100 ERA- nearly 70% of the time — compared to only 42% for lower-velocity starters. More specifically, nearly twice as many pitchers who relied on their slower four-seam fastball more than 45% of the time posted ERAs worse than league-average. This shows that lower velocity pitchers tend to survive through locating their fastball and inducing weak contact through pitch movement. Pitchers who relied more heavily on sinkers and cutters had a better chance of outperforming their velocity than their counterparts. Milone is known to have both command and control, but when it comes to his fastball, there isn’t much movement. Given his significant reliance on his four-seamer, Milone appears to be at a disadvantage.

Additionally, while he managed to post solid strikeout rates in the minors (>=17% as a starter), Milone has averaged only 12.5% in his first seven major-league starts. This also is likely due to the reliance on his four-seamer.

All told, the comparatives for Milone don’t look favorable. Given his usage of an underwhelming four-seam fastball, it’s unlikely (but not impossible) he will be able to produce enough strikeouts and weak contact at the major-league level to perform above-average. Pitching in Oakland will certainly help him, as the ample foul ground and outfield dimensions could depress his ERA. However, given that successful comparative pitchers had the luxury of National League lineups to pitch against (Mark Buehrle being the exception), I wouldn’t bet on Milone being a member of the Athletics’ — or any other American League — rotation for the long-term.

Baker Undergoes Surprise Tommy John Surgery.

Spoiler [+]
Right-hander Scott Baker was set to undergo surgery on his elbow for a cleanup of his flexor pronator tendon earlier this week. Any elbow surgeries can result in complications for a big league pitcher, but considering the alternatives, Baker appeared to be rather lucky in terms of his diagnosis. As he said:
[The team doctor] said this is something that’s not going to repair itself. It’s not going to cure itself. It’s something that needs to be taken care of. Fortunately, he said the (UCL) ligament looked great, so I guess in a way, as bad as this is, the flexor pronator tendon is what needs to be repaired.
Click to expand...

However, when the team doctor, Dr. Altchek, opened up the elbow, he determined that the UCL was damaged to the point that it needed repair. The MRI testing done prior to the surgery completely missed the UCL damage. Now, instead of missing only six months of the 2011 season, Scott Baker will not pitch again for approximately 12-18 months.

The good new for Baker is that the success rate for Tommy John surgery is now upward of 85-92 percent. The likelihood of returning to the big leagues in some capacity appears overwhelmingly positive. Most likely, though, his next big league job will not be with the Minnesota Twins. Baker has a $9.25M club option for the 2013 season, but there is almost no conceivable way Terry Ryan and the Twins exercise that option at this point.

Few people were surprised when it was announced last week that Scott Baker needed surgery on his elbow. The right-hander struggled in spring training with elbow discomfort and a lack of velocity, throwing only 83-84 MPH with his fastball after averaging 91 MPH with that pitch a year ago. The situation just screamed significant elbow injury.

Instead, the surprising part of the story lies in the fact that doctors cleared his UCL of any damage after undergoing an MRI and subsequently discovered that the entire ligament needed repair to the point that the beginning of the 2013 season is now jeopardized for Baker. This is not unprecedented, however. I know of one major league player in the last couple of seasons who underwent multiple MRIs to uncover an elbow injury that he insisted was present, yet the MRIs consistently showed no injury. It caused friction between the player and the organization. In the end, though, the player was correct and ultimately needed surgery to repair the elbow injury, despite the multiple MRI tests that showed no damage.

For the Minnesota Twins, the surprise Tommy John surgery does nothing to change their current position. Right-handers Anthony Swarzak and Liam Hendriks have both been forced into the starting rotation to begin the year due to the injury to Scott Baker and the unfortunate family emergency that temporarily pulled Jason Marquis away from the team. Both Swarzak and Hendriks are prototypical Twins pitchers: low strikeout, low walk, high contact pitchers who walk a fine line between effectiveness and ineffectiveness at the big league level due to their lack of premium stuff. ZiPS does not project either to find game-changing success this season, either, as Swarzak is projected to compile a terrible 5.36 ERA and Hendriks a modest 4.23 ERA.

Once Jason Marquis returns to the big league club — he is slated to start on Wednesday evening against the New York Yankees in Game 3 of a four-game series — the Twins will either be able to transition Swarzak to the bullpen and allow Hendriks the opportunity to grow into a young, back-end starter the organization needs, or leave Swarzak in the rotation because he possesses more big league experience and send Hendriks back to Triple-A, where he has only thrown 49.1 career innings, for further development and to keep his arm stretched out.

No matter the decision, the starting rotation for the Twins appears to be ripping apart at the seams. Scott Baker is out for the year. Francisco Liriano has more walks than strikeouts. Carl Pavano possesses a 5.23 ERA and has seen his early-season swinging strike rate drop for the third-consecutive season. Nick Blackburn has a 5.56 ERA through two starts this year and a career 4.62 FIP. Absolutely none of things are good.

It has been a rough couple of seasons for the Minnesota Twins. They have seen their two superstars, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, battle their health and have seen their starting rotation slip from an organizational strength to a liability that should keep them from contending in the AL Central this season.

This surprise Tommy John surgery for Scott Baker is just another drop in the bucket at this point. More injuries. More bad luck. More struggles.
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

Sick burn, bro. I may not recover.
Click to expand...
To quote the ever-popular Drake, "Don't be ducking like you never wanted nothing." No respect for individuals that drop subliminal comments/messages instead of having the guts to confront a person directly. If you take issue in the future, you know where to find me through PM, etc. Furthermore, I've always been a straight shooter on NT and many can vouch for me. I own up to sports opinions I get wrong on occasion and I also give others and myself credit where it's due. Are Kuroda and Jackson going to be solid innings-eaters for NY and Washington? Yes, most likely, but we'll see who's right at the end of the season. Did I not say Texas will win the division with or without Prince? 10-2 start. Did I not reiterate that if Chapman dials down the velocity like Verlander, his location and control will improve greatly resulting in overall major league effectiveness and success? Absolutely. So yes, I am right a lot of the time by watching games/tapes and backing up my sports beliefs with tangible evidence and support. In contrast, when I get something wrong I'm the first to own up to it. Masterson as a top of the rotation starter? Sure, once he gets a more consistent out pitch against lefties. I called out Jay Bruce's power numbers as potentially juicing, Wildcat appropriately corrected me. Broncos/Seahawks SB prediction years back? Got it wrong, neither made their Conference Championship Game. Bottom line, don't hate just to hate. If you got a problem, bring it directly by name or through PM. That's the last I'll say on this matter. Back to legitimate and enjoyable baseball talk.  
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

Sick burn, bro. I may not recover.
Click to expand...
To quote the ever-popular Drake, "Don't be ducking like you never wanted nothing." No respect for individuals that drop subliminal comments/messages instead of having the guts to confront a person directly. If you take issue in the future, you know where to find me through PM, etc. Furthermore, I've always been a straight shooter on NT and many can vouch for me. I own up to sports opinions I get wrong on occasion and I also give others and myself credit where it's due. Are Kuroda and Jackson going to be solid innings-eaters for NY and Washington? Yes, most likely, but we'll see who's right at the end of the season. Did I not say Texas will win the division with or without Prince? 10-2 start. Did I not reiterate that if Chapman dials down the velocity like Verlander, his location and control will improve greatly resulting in overall major league effectiveness and success? Absolutely. So yes, I am right a lot of the time by watching games/tapes and backing up my sports beliefs with tangible evidence and support. In contrast, when I get something wrong I'm the first to own up to it. Masterson as a top of the rotation starter? Sure, once he gets a more consistent out pitch against lefties. I called out Jay Bruce's power numbers as potentially juicing, Wildcat appropriately corrected me. Broncos/Seahawks SB prediction years back? Got it wrong, neither made their Conference Championship Game. Bottom line, don't hate just to hate. If you got a problem, bring it directly by name or through PM. That's the last I'll say on this matter. Back to legitimate and enjoyable baseball talk.  
 
Dee Gordon is still my NL pick to swipe the most bags over Bourn, but Ozzie is sending Bonifacio early and often.
 
Dee Gordon is still my NL pick to swipe the most bags over Bourn, but Ozzie is sending Bonifacio early and often.
 
Originally Posted by Proshares


Josh Beckett’s New Approach.

Spoiler [+]
Josh Beckett hasn’t looked the same this season. After an off-season as public enemy No. 1 to Red Sox fans, Beckett could have benefited from a strong start this year. Unfortunately for the 31-year-old, he had a disastrous season debut — one in which he allowed five home runs in just 4.2 innings.

Since then, though, Beckett has been pretty effective. While it’s tough to draw conclusions from small samples, Beckett might be using a new approach on the mound. And if his past two starts are any indication, that approach is working.

Beckett appears to be throwing his cutter more often this season. While is usage is only slightly up (20.1% last season, to 23.3% this year), Beckett hasn’t been throwing his fastball as much. Depending on which tool you look at, Beckett may actually be throwing his cutter more often than his fastball.

It’s actually a bit puzzling why Beckett would choose to throw his fastball less often. It rated as his best pitch last season and produced a 15.6 pitch value. That wasn’t all volume either, as his wFB/C of 1.03 rated second to his 1.76 change-up. So why the change?

While we can’t be certain, there are some factors that could explain Beckett’s reliance on his cutter. Beckett’s fastball velocity has been down thus far: He’s only averaging 91.5 mph this season — compared to 93.0 mph last year. Beckett could be compensating for that lack of velocity by throwing more cutters. Early season velocity is typically lower than usual — and Beckett was dealing with a thumb injury during the spring — so this could just be a small-sample blip.

That’s not to say he hasn’t been effective, and Beckett might want to continue using his cutter. According to Joe Lefkowitz’s pitch f/x site, Beckett has primarily used the cutter to neutralize right-handed batters. In Beckett’s first start, he threw his cutter 20 times, which resulted in four swinging strikes. Beckett mixed his pitches a bit better in his second start, and he only managed one swinging strike on his cutter — though he had a much better game.

Last night, Beckett’s cutter really became a weapon. Relying on mostly a four-seam fastball and the cutter, Beckett held the Texas Rangers to three runs over seven innings while walking just one batter. It wasn’t a phenomenal performance, but his cutter looked very good. Beckett threw 31 cutters last night, which resulted in eight swinging strikes. That was good for a 25.8% swinging-strike rate. It also has been encouraging to see Beckett’s velocity slowly creep up after each of his starts. Last night, his average fastball was much closer to 92 mph. That’s not a huge change, but it could be a sign that he’ll regain some of his velocity as the season moves on.

All told, Beckett’s cutter is producing more whiffs so far than any pitch, other than his change-up. His cutter has also produced the highest ground-ball rate among all his pitches. While his terrible season debut marred his early results, Beckett has been effective his last two times out. And that could at least partly be a result of his increased reliance on the cutter.

Beckett no longer has the velocity to succeed as a true power pitcher. But to remain effective, he has begun to rely on another pitch — one in which he seems to be gaining confidence. By using his cutter more frequently this year, Beckett will prove that his first start in 2012 was an anomaly.
Click to expand...
What's that, exercise?
 
Originally Posted by Proshares


Josh Beckett’s New Approach.

Spoiler [+]
Josh Beckett hasn’t looked the same this season. After an off-season as public enemy No. 1 to Red Sox fans, Beckett could have benefited from a strong start this year. Unfortunately for the 31-year-old, he had a disastrous season debut — one in which he allowed five home runs in just 4.2 innings.

Since then, though, Beckett has been pretty effective. While it’s tough to draw conclusions from small samples, Beckett might be using a new approach on the mound. And if his past two starts are any indication, that approach is working.

Beckett appears to be throwing his cutter more often this season. While is usage is only slightly up (20.1% last season, to 23.3% this year), Beckett hasn’t been throwing his fastball as much. Depending on which tool you look at, Beckett may actually be throwing his cutter more often than his fastball.

It’s actually a bit puzzling why Beckett would choose to throw his fastball less often. It rated as his best pitch last season and produced a 15.6 pitch value. That wasn’t all volume either, as his wFB/C of 1.03 rated second to his 1.76 change-up. So why the change?

While we can’t be certain, there are some factors that could explain Beckett’s reliance on his cutter. Beckett’s fastball velocity has been down thus far: He’s only averaging 91.5 mph this season — compared to 93.0 mph last year. Beckett could be compensating for that lack of velocity by throwing more cutters. Early season velocity is typically lower than usual — and Beckett was dealing with a thumb injury during the spring — so this could just be a small-sample blip.

That’s not to say he hasn’t been effective, and Beckett might want to continue using his cutter. According to Joe Lefkowitz’s pitch f/x site, Beckett has primarily used the cutter to neutralize right-handed batters. In Beckett’s first start, he threw his cutter 20 times, which resulted in four swinging strikes. Beckett mixed his pitches a bit better in his second start, and he only managed one swinging strike on his cutter — though he had a much better game.

Last night, Beckett’s cutter really became a weapon. Relying on mostly a four-seam fastball and the cutter, Beckett held the Texas Rangers to three runs over seven innings while walking just one batter. It wasn’t a phenomenal performance, but his cutter looked very good. Beckett threw 31 cutters last night, which resulted in eight swinging strikes. That was good for a 25.8% swinging-strike rate. It also has been encouraging to see Beckett’s velocity slowly creep up after each of his starts. Last night, his average fastball was much closer to 92 mph. That’s not a huge change, but it could be a sign that he’ll regain some of his velocity as the season moves on.

All told, Beckett’s cutter is producing more whiffs so far than any pitch, other than his change-up. His cutter has also produced the highest ground-ball rate among all his pitches. While his terrible season debut marred his early results, Beckett has been effective his last two times out. And that could at least partly be a result of his increased reliance on the cutter.

Beckett no longer has the velocity to succeed as a true power pitcher. But to remain effective, he has begun to rely on another pitch — one in which he seems to be gaining confidence. By using his cutter more frequently this year, Beckett will prove that his first start in 2012 was an anomaly.
Click to expand...
What's that, exercise?
 
Matt Kemp has hit all of his homers this year to straightaway centerfield or right field
 
Matt Kemp has hit all of his homers this year to straightaway centerfield or right field
 
Originally Posted by ChampCruThik

Dee Gordon is still my NL pick to swipe the most bags over Bourn, but Ozzie is sending Bonifacio early and often.
Click to expand...

Bourn is not stealing as much as i thought he would idk if its Gonzalez not letting him go.
 
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