2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[proshares]

How many rounds we want to go?

I'd wanna make it something I can sim in The Show. All teams have a DH's because forget those NL rules

IDK how familiar everyone is with RP's so I think doing 11 starters where you can designate who you want in relief (2 set up men, 3 middle RP and one long RP) along with 1 closer would be cool. Then your 5 IF's, 3 OF's, 1 DH and 4 bench to round it out.

That seems like it might take a while though but I'm open to suggestions.

 

[proshares]

Will the draft include doing the farm systems as well? If so I'm in.

We can but I'd limit it to this brand spanking new top 50 I'm going to post in a few. I'd have to create most of them if we were to run a sim. I'd create them and rate them by where they rank. So 1-10 I'd make 80, 11-20 77, 21-30 74, etc.

Team wise, I might just randomize it TBH :\

So far, without PM'ing anyone yet, I have:

Jewbacca
651
Champ
DSA
Kev
JRS
a55
erupt maybe
Jumpman
Pabs
Dland
pizzo
CP
Proshares

 

[jewbacca]

We need to set a premise for this also.

Best possible team right now or best team going forward?

 

[proshares]

I'm literally just going to create 30 teams in The Show and run a season simulation and then a playoff simulation

 

[CP1708]

First thing you want to do Pro, and it has been a big help for the NBA one, when you create the OP, post 2nd and 3rd also. Just one word posts, real quick, right after. That way it gives you the OP for the most important stuff to update, but allows you the next two posts to add other smaller details you might need space for. But just as easy to find since it's right on page one, under the OP.


Osh, and WildK might want in on somethin like this. Ironman? BigMike might, but not sure.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

There's a few pretty good full farms available on The Show Pro. Gotta look for one done by the OS guys.

 

[proshares]

First thing you want to do Pro, and it has been a big help for the NBA one, when you create the OP, post 2nd and 3rd also. Just one word posts, real quick, right after. That way it gives you the OP for the most important stuff to update, but allows you the next two posts to add other smaller details you might need space for. But just as easy to find since it's right on page one, under the OP.


Osh, and WildK might want in on somethin like this. Ironman? BigMike might, but not sure.

Good looks man.

I never see Wildcat on anymore so I didn't even think of him. I'll hit up IM and Mike.

I didn't even think of that JRS, I'll check that out tonight.

 

[N41D]

 

[CP1708]

Dirk, I wanted you in the NBA one man, but couldn't find you when I was settin it up. Glad to see you jump on the MLB one.

 

[N41D]

I've been checking in on that one. I was on my honeymoon when y'all started, so I didn't see it til after I got back..

 

[CP1708]

Thas right, both you and Pro are newlyweds. Congrats both of you.

I can use you as an outside judge on the NBA one later if you got the time. Should be done in about 2 weeks or so.

Pro, Statis might be up for an MLB one? Check in with him. And WildK is around, just lurks more.
ARodg might be worth a check too.

 

[proshares]

that's my bad Dirk, I didn't see you in the NBA one so thought you wouldn't see this. You're in.

I'll PM Statis and Wildcat now. I'm going first come first serve in with PM's.

 

[proshares]

Top 50 MLB prospects.

Spoiler

At the MLB season's halfway point, and in the wake of the deadline to sign draftees, I put together an update of the top 50 prospects in baseball, given a number of players from my top 100 rankings that came out in January have now graduated to the majors.

In ranking these players, I tend to weight upside or ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. The list includes a mixture of players as high as Double-A or Triple-A as well as a few who signed in recent weeks who have yet to make their professional debuts.

Players who have already passed the cutoff for Rookie of the Year eligibility are ineligible, as is anyone currently on a major league roster.

Note: I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid overuse of the terms "average" and "above average" across the player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringe or below average and so on.

1. Kris Bryant, 3B | Chicago Cubs

Age: 22 | Current Level: AAA (Iowa)

Preseason Ranking: 15

While there are players in the minors who offer higher ceilings -- notably the next two guys on this list -- Bryant is so close to major-league ready that his value at this moment is at least as high as that of Buxton, who's playing now but has been hurt most of the year, or Correa, who's out at least until the Fall League. Bryant has power, he's capable at third base, and his eye and approach continue to improve. Even if he's just a .260-.270 hitter -- probably a pessimistic forecast -- he'll still be a MVP-caliber bat who hits 30-40 homers and gets on base at a solid clip.

2. Byron Buxton, CF | Minnesota Twins

Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Fort Myers)

Preseason Ranking: 1

It's been a rough year for Buxton, who missed almost three months with a pair of injuries that not only cost him development time but also left him rusty, even as he repeats high-A. Buxton's injury might push back his timetable, but I don't think it will change his ultimate ceiling at all; he remains an 80 runner with an 80 arm in centerfield, the right mix for a plus-plus defender. He has the bat speed and swing to hit for average and some power. If you want to yell and scream that he's really the best prospect in baseball -- instead of Bryant -- I wont put up much of a fight. I'd gladly take either guy in my system.


3. Carlos Correa, SS | Houston Astros

Age: 19 | Current Level: High A (Lancaster)

Preseason Ranking: 4

Correa was in the midst of a remarkable season as a 19-year-old in the high-A California League (albeit in a great hitter's park) when he broke one of his fibulas on a hard slide. That's a shame in so many ways: Correa's continued to improve his profile as a prospect at every stop, playing better and better defense and giving himself a real shot to stay at short once he gets to the big leagues. His plate discipline and power have both progressed more quickly than even Correa's fans in the scouting community expected. I'm hoping there's no long-term impact from the injury -- there shouldn't be -- but since Correa was never a plus runner there's at least a small risk this hurts his range and quickness at short.

4. Addison Russell, SS | Chicago Cubs

Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (Tennessee)

Preseason Ranking: 3

Russell will be the best prospect to change hands this season, going from the Oakland Athletics, who took him with the 11th overall pick in 2012, to the Cubs in the deal that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A's. A torn hamstring robbed Russell of most of April and May, but he's healthy now and hasn't lost anything at the plate or in the field. He has outstanding hands and plenty of arm for shortstop, which makes up for slightly limited range. His footwork has improved over the last year, so I don't really doubt that he can stay at the position. Those great hands also serve him well at the plate, helping him to accelerate his bat quickly and get good loft in his finish to create line-drive power. I see a high-average hitter with a strong OBP and 10-15 homers -- maybe even a few more -- who plays above-average defense at shortstop.

5. Corey Seager, 3B | Los Angeles Dodgers


Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Rancho Cucamonga)

Preseason Ranking: 18

Seager had some trouble in the Cal League late last summer after a promotion from low-A, but the Dodgers got him to firm up his front side and stay balanced through contact so he wouldn't overrotate and become too pull-oriented. That change was fortuitous: Seager has destroyed high-A all year, at his hitter-friendly home park and away from it, with 54 extra-base hits already through 80 games. He's not going to stay at shortstop, but he'll be the Dodgers' third baseman for six solid years once he gets to the majors at some point next year.

6. Francisco Lindor, SS | Cleveland Indians


Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (Akron)

Preseason Ranking: 6

The minors remain loaded with high-end shortstop prospects. Lindor leads that group in his defensive skills. He's got a combination of plus speed, good hands, and great instincts at short. He's hit well at every level, showing outstanding discipline at the plate ever since his first day in pro ball, even though he's always been young for his leagues. He probably won't have better than average power, but everything else here is plus or will be, which would make him a frequent All-Star and longtime starter at short.

7. Jonathan Gray, RHP | Colorado Rockies


Age: 22 | Current Level: AA (Tulsa)

Preseason Ranking: 12

Gray's absence from the Futures Game was probably a loss for fans. The former Oklahoma starter hits 99 regularly as a starter and pitches with a plus fastball and plus slider. The Rockies were aggressive with Gray, getting him right to AA to start his first full pro season, and it looks like the right call so far. He could be up by year-end, although the Rockies may choose not to put him on the 40-man roster so soon; either way, he should be in their rotation by Opening Day 2016 and projects as their eventual #1 starter.

8. Javier Baez, SS | Chicago Cubs


Age: 21 | Current Level: AAA (Iowa)

Preseason Ranking: 7

Baez still has the minors' best bat speed, with great wrist and forearm strength that translates into huge all-fields power, which you saw in his homer in the Futures Game off a hanging breaking ball. He's still rough around the edges at short, agile enough to play but lacking the finesse or the focus to do so at a major league level. That same Futures Game performance also saw him lollygagging on a groundball to short and delivering a lazy throw when he needed to fire one over to first base. Makeup may be the biggest concern here. Otherwise, Baez has the raw ability to become a 35-40 homer guy at second or third base.

9. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona


Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Mobile)

Preseason Ranking: 9

Bradley had a mild elbow strain that shut him down for about a month this spring; he's back now but has struggled through four rehab starts in AA. When fully healthy, he has two plus pitches, a fastball up to 98 and a grade-70 curveball. He needs to develop better command, mostly of the fastball, but that's a tough thing to get a kid working on when his current goal is to not give up another home run to PCL opponents. I hope Arizona doesn't rush him back to AAA, and that these struggles are just a blip rather than a sign that the elbow issue was more serious.

10. Carlos Rodon, LHP | Chicago White Sox


Age: 21 | Current Level: Just drafted

Preseason Ranking: N/A

Rodon was the second-best prospect in this year's draft class, the best college player available, and one of the only players in the class with the ability to play in the majors this season. Rodon's slider is filthy, a grade-80 pitch in his best outings but more consistently a grade-70 pitch. It's a wipeout offering with late bite that I've seen hit 92 mph, even though his fastball is usually just 90-94. I can't imagine minor league hitters will be able to touch him. Rodon's stuff is so nasty he may not have to work much on fastball command or on developing a better changeup until he reaches the big leagues.

11. Miguel Sano, 3B | Minnesota Twins


Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (New Britain)

Preseason Ranking: 8

Sano's position here shifts because of changes in the players around him -- he's out for the year after Tommy John surgery. The projection remains the same - 35-40 homer power, .350+ OBPs, most likely in right field or at first base.

12. Dylan Bundy, RHP | Baltimore Orioles


Age: 21 | Current Level: High A (Frederick)

Preseason Ranking: 31

Bundy was back pitching in competitive games less than 12 months after ligament-transplant surgery, and the stuff was most of the way back, although he had a little velocity still left to regain. That controversial cutter remains his best pitch, a true swing-and-miss offering that mitigates the lack of life on his fastball, and he will show an above-average or better curveball as well. His feel for pitching and control are beyond his years, and if the Orioles need him in their bullpen in September he should be ready to help.

13. Hunter Harvey, RHP | Baltimore Orioles


Age: 19 | Current Level: A (Delmarva)

Preseason Ranking: 38

I love Harvey's stuff, with a fastball up to 97 that shows hard-boring life and a plus curveball when it's on, but he has to get more consistently on line in his delivery. At the Futures Game, he was striding too short, cutting himself when he landed, and trying to throw way across his body. He doesn't always do that, but the Orioles need to clear any such hiccups immediately. The changeup will probably develop by the time he reaches Frederick or Bowie. When that happens, Harvey will be a legitimate no. 1 or no. 2 starter candidate.

14. Lucas Giolito, RHP | Washington Nationals


Age: 20 | Current Level: A (Hagerstown)

Preseason Ranking: 21

Between low pitch counts and a prohibition on his two-seamer, Giolito is still pitching with shackles on. But what he shows is solid -- a fastball typically 94-96 with some downhill plane and a plus curveball, grade 65 or 70, with depth and tight rotation. He's a strike-thrower with control over command right now, and the changeup is still a work in progress. His arm strength, size, and possession of an out pitch give him top-of-the-rotation upside, but I don't think we'll see that potential in full until he reaches AA.

15. J.P. Crawford, SS | Philadelphia Phillies


Age: 19 | Current Level: High A (Clearwater)

Preseason Ranking: 46

Crawford's yet another athletic, quick shortstop who's shown great instincts and performed well even when playing among much older competition -- just add him to the pile, I guess. Crawford's one of the best defenders in the group, but not as strong as Russell or as fleet of foot as Lindor. He's shown an excellent approach at the plate, especially pitch recognition, even against lefties, and his glove isn't that far away from being major-league ready.

16. Noah Syndergaard, RHP | New York Mets


Age: 21 | Current Level: AAA (Las Vegas)

Preseason Ranking: 24

Thor is back, healthy, and throwing well, even though Vegas is no picnic for pitchers. (He told me before the Futures Game he's more bothered by the heat than the altitude; when you throw straight downhill it's probably easier to live with pitching in thin air.) He's still mostly fastball-changeup, but will show a curveball and slider, neither of which are plus -- though the curveball does have some depth thanks to his size and really easy, fluid delivery. Syndegaard won't turn 22 until late August and has improved every year since he's entered pro ball, so I wouldn't bet against him reaching an even higher plane of performance after he reaches the big leagues.

17. Julio Urias, LHP | Los Angeles Dodgers


Age: 17 | Current Level: High A (Rancho Cucamonga)

Preseason Ranking: 14

Ranking the 17-year-old 17th was a coincidence, I swear -- he's just this good, up to 95 consistently with an above-average to plus curveball and average or better changeup, deception in the delivery, lots of torque from his hip rotation, and shocking command for his age. We all should hope the Mexican-born Urias stays healthy as he navigates his late teens. The Dodgers are being extremely cautious with him, so he might not see the majors until 2016 or later.

18. Joey Gallo, 3B | Texas Rangers


Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (Frisco)

Preseason Ranking: N/A

Not sure I need to say much more -- this is the best power bat in the minors, a game-changing kind of hitter if he can make enough contact. He's already made so many adjustments in the last 24 months, really reducing his weaknesses now to hard stuff on the inner half, that he should reach that point in the next two years.

19. Kohl Stewart, RHP | Minnesota Twins


Age: 19 | Current Level: A (Cedar Rapids)

Preseason Ranking: 76

Stewart had the pure stuff in high school, but his delivery was so unpolished and command so inconsistent that he looked like a long-term project for the Twins with huge upside. His first full pro season has gone way better than I expected, as he's throwing a lot of strikes and getting groundballs, sitting 92-96 with a plus slider and future-average curve and change. As he builds up strength and durability he'll continue to rise on this list, with the potential that he's a future No. 1 starter.

20. Tyler Glasnow, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates


Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Bradenton)

Preseason Ranking: 20

Glasnow missed time this April with lower back tightness and started a little slowly, walking more batters than you'd like to see as he essentially finished his spring training tune-ups in live game action. But he's been much closer to his old self lately, missing more bats and throwing more strikes overall. Glasnow throws a heavy fastball up to 98 and has two above-average secondary offerings now. He needs to work on repeating his delivery and commanding all three offerings, but there's no. 1 starter upside here now that he's healthy again.

21. Kyle Zimmer, RHP | Kansas City Royals


Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)

Preseason Ranking: 10

Zimmer's been cleared to throw and should make his 2014 debut in August, probably pitching most of the Fall League to add back the innings he missed due to a sore shoulder in the offseason and a lat strain that wiped out two more months. When healthy, he can show three plus pitches. He's also a a superb athlete who fields his position well. Unfortunately, the lost innings probably push back his MLB debut a full year.

22. Joc Pederson, CF | Los Angeles Dodgers


Age: 22 | Current Level: AAA (Albuquerque)

Preseason Ranking: 41

Pederson should be the centerfielder in LA right now, but the Blue Man Group has run a series of corner outfielders out there rather than call up Pederson -- who isn't quite as good as his Albuquerque-inflated line might indicate, but would definitely give the Dodgers a boost on defense and in OBP. He still needs work against left-handed pitching, mostly picking up spin, but he's not getting much of that experience in the PCL anyway.

23. Henry Owens, LHP | Boston Red Sox


Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Portland)

Preseason Ranking: 42

Owens doesn't throw hard, mostly 90-92 but up to 94 whenever he needs it, succeeding with tremendous deception in his delivery and one of the minors' best changeups, which has made him more effective against right-handed hitters than lefties throughout his pro career. His breaking ball is soft but good enough to get some lefties out, although it could be a solid-average pitch for him if he tightens it up and gets more velocity on it. He doesn't have the high ceiling of the arms above him on this list. But if his fastball command improves, he'll be a #2 or very good #3 starter for the Sox.

24. Raul Mondesi, Jr., SS | Kansas City Royals


Age: 18 | Current Level: High A (Wilmington)

Preseason Ranking: 22

Mondesi's unproductive season in high-A Wilmington -- he's hitting just .220/.268/.306 -- is easier to accept because he's 15 months younger than any other regular position player in the Carolina League, and younger than many players still in short-season ball. He's an elite defensive shortstop and plus runner with a short, clean swing that should produce lots of line-drive contact. He's playing against much older competition now, but when his body catches up to his instincts, that stat line will make a big jump.

25. Nick Gordon, SS | Minnesota Twins


Age: 18 | Current Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)

Preseason Ranking: N/A

The fifth pick in this year's Rule 4 draft, Gordon -- son of Flash and half-brother of Dee -- is a true shortstop with great feel at the plate and strong instincts across the board. He has the kind of awareness you'd expect to see in a former two-way player (he was 90-92 off the mound) whose father played two decades in the majors.

Gordon doesn't project to have much power, but could be a leadoff type thanks to his ability to hit for average, and he has a chance to be a difference-maker on defense, too.

26. Braden Shipley, RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks


Age: 22 | Current Level: High A (Visalia)

Preseason Ranking: 25

Shipley's curveball has come on quickly now that he's allowed to throw it, which gives him two plus offspeed pitches alongside the always-good changeup. His fastball can be straight, 92-95 mostly, and he'll have to work on keeping it down in the zone. He's an outstanding athlete and converted position player, which gives me more optimism that he'll be able to continue making adjustments, keep his fastball down and learn to mix all three pitches consistently.

Swihart
AP Photos/Mike Janes
Blake Swihart could be the catcher of the future in Boston.
27. Blake Swihart, C | Boston Red Sox


Age: 22 | Current Level: AA (Portland)

Preseason Ranking: 56

Swihart was one of those dreaded 19-year-old high school seniors when the Red Sox took him in the first round of the 2011 draft, but his raw tools merited the pick and Boston has been rewarded for their patience with him. He's now 22 and playing well on both sides of the ball in Double-A. He's hit more homers this year (10) than in his previous two years combined, his receiving continues to improve and he's nailed 54 percent of opposing basestealers -- or would-be basestealers, given that kind of success rate. He's their catcher of the future, perhaps as soon as this time next year.

28. Jorge Soler, RF | Chicago Cubs


Age: 22 | Current Level: AA (Tennessee)

Preseason Ranking: 26

Soler is a monster if he can just stay on the field. He has electric bat speed, plus-plus raw power and the athleticism and arm to play an above-average or better right field. He's gotten bigger and stronger since signing in 2012, and in the 15 games he's managed to play in Double-A this year, he's hit .400/.456/.880 with 14 extra-base hits in 57 at-bats (tiny sample size caveat applies), indicative of his crazy strength. While he's been injured too often for me to rank him higher, he has the raw offensive ability to be a top 10 prospect if he gets the at-bats to work on his recognition of offspeed stuff.

29. Josh Bell, OF | Pittsburgh Pirates


Age: 21 | Current Level: High A (Bradenton)

Preseason Ranking: 97

Bell earned a $5 million over-slot bonus in the 2011 draft but lost the 2012 season to a knee injury. With that said, he's now all the way back to where he was supposed to be, destroying high-A pitching from both sides of the plate with great bat speed and excellent hand-eye coordination. He hasn't shown much patience, but he's a very disciplined hitter who recognizes balls and strikes well. I think he ends up in left rather than right field thanks to a fringy arm, but this is a middle-of-the-order bat with the potential to hit for high averages and 25-to-30 homers a year.

30. Tyler Kolek, RHP | Miami Marlins


Age: 18 | Current Level: Rookie

Preseason Ranking: N/A

The hardest-throwing starter in the 2012 draft, the 6-6 Kolek can reach 101 mph, pitches comfortably at 95-98 and will show a sharp slider that he doesn't command yet. He's a huge upside play, with the fastball and frame of a No. 1 starter, needing the polish and third pitch that he never had to have while pitching in high school ball in rural Texas.

31. Jorge Alfaro, C | Texas Rangers


Age: 21 | Current Level: High A (Myrtle Beach)

Preseason Ranking: 44

Alfaro has two grade-80 tools in his power and arm and he has the bat speed to hit for average. However his plate discipline isn't progressing and his receiving is a mixed bag, sometimes above-average, sometimes appearing like he's taking a play or two off. There's still a substantial amount of upside here -- a catcher who can hit 20-to-25 homers a year and shut down the running game is a star even with a low .300s OBP -- but I'd like to see more consistent progress in his game.

32. Michael Conforto, OF | New York Mets


Age: 21 | Current Level: Just drafted

Preseason Ranking: N/A

Conforto was the most advanced college bat in the draft class this year, leading Division 1 in OBP despite playing in a major conference, while showing above-average power and adequate defense in left field. He doesn't have huge upside, but he's very close to major-league ready and should be at least an above-average regular with a higher ceiling if the power exceeds expectations. The Mets should fast-track him if his performance warrants it.

33. Mark Appel, RHP | Houston Astros


Age: 22 | Current Level: High A (Lancaster)

Preseason Ranking: 11

It's been a dismal year for Appel, whose raw stuff is fine but command has been off, in part due to a series of health issues. He had an offseason appendectomy to a nerve issue in a finger on his pitching hand as well as wrist tendonitis that required a cortisone shot a few weeks ago. He's still up to 97-98 and around the plate, but his feel for his slider has slipped with the finger and wrist issues, and he's giving up too much hard contact. He shouldn't be in Lancaster at all -- it's a horrible place to pitch -- but also needs to get 100 percent healthy before we're going to see the potential he showed at Stanford.

34. Brandon Nimmo, OF | New York Mets


Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Binghamton)

Preseason Ranking: 92

The Mets' first-round pick in 2011 was primed for a breakout once he escaped the pitcher-friendly environment of Savannah after last season. He's done just that, showing power at two levels now all while showcasing his trademark patience. I don't see him staying in centerfield and he might only be a moderate hitter for average, but very high OBPs and 20-plus homers a year with great defense in right would make for an above-average regular.

35. David Dahl, OF | Colorado Rockies

Age: 20 | Current Level: A (Asheville)

Preseason Ranking: 47

Dahl, like Bell the year before, lost nearly all of his first full pro season to injury, but has come all the way back this year, showing the kind of offensive skill set most scouts expected to see right out of the draft. Dahl worked hard in the offseason and got his body into incredible shape. Now, he's staying healthy, playing much better defense in center, and hitting for average and power. He'll need to walk more as he moves up the ladder. Right now, though, he's having so much success that he's not running the count deep enough to walk or strike out. He's a dynamic player who should see high-A before the summer is out.

36. Robert Stephenson, RHP | Cincinnati Reds


Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Pensacola)

Preseason Ranking: 29

The Reds' top pitching prospect has had his problems with command and control this year, which isn't critical for a 21-year-old already pitching in AA. Still, the troubles probably push back his MLB debut date by at least a half season. Stephenson will pitch with a plus fastball and curveball, but there's some violence in his delivery that may be behind his command/control problems in 2014 -- although he had the same delivery last year and threw a lot more strikes. He'll need to develop his changeup and improve or restore his command to get back to that no. 1 starter ceiling.

37. Daniel Norris, LHP | Toronto Blue Jays


Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (New Hampshire)

Preseason Ranking: N/A

Norris has passed Aaron Sanchez as the Jays' top pitching prospect, thanks to some substantial delivery cleanup that has him more on line to the plate and better able to repeat his still-long arm action. He'll show three above-average pitches, all of which he does a good job of throwing for strikes, and a potential major-league out pitch in his slider. He's a long way from having average command, but at this time last year it was unthinkable that he'd improve enough to get a Futures Game appearance and a quick promotion to AA.

38. Jameson Taillon, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates


Age: 21 | Current Level: AAA (Indianapolis)

Preseason Ranking: 27

Taillon is out for the year after Tommy John surgery, unfortunately, and probably won't be back on the mound until the early part of 2014. Prior to the injury, I had him rated 27th overall, thanks to no. 1 starter stuff. But he suffers from a lack of deception on his fastball and a below-average changeup, rendering him more of an above-average starter prospect rather than an ace. Here's hoping everything comes back good as new once he's completed his rehab.

39. Jose Peraza 2B/SS | Atlanta Braves


Age: 22 | Current Level: AA (Mississippi)

Preseason Ranking: 99

Atlanta slid Peraza, a natural shortstop, to second base earlier this year, probably a full season sooner than necessary. But Andrelton Simmons is an all-world defender and has the shortstop position locked down in Georgia for at least the next six years. Peraza's now a 70 defender at short who's also a plus runner with a compact, quick swing that produces contact without power. I'd like him more if he were a left-handed hitter who could make better use of that speed, but he's still going to be an above-average starter in the big leagues who hits .300+ and plays great defense.

Austin Meadows
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Just 19 years old, Austin Meadows could one day be a middle-of-the-order bat in Pittsburgh.
40. Austin Meadows, CF | Pittsburgh Pirates


Age: 19 | Current Level: A (West Virginia)

Preseason Ranking: 35

I tabbed Meadows as one of the prospects on my top 100 most likely to leap the top ten this season, only to see him pull a hamstring and miss nearly three months. He's in West Virginia now, with just ten games under his belt in 2014, so this evaluation is based primarily off what he was coming into the year -- a big, physical, tooled-up athlete with an idea at the plate who projects as a middle-of-the-order bat. In the field, Meadows is likely to end up in right at some point.

41. Joe Ross, RHP | San Diego Padres


Age: 21 | Current Level: High A (Lake Elsinore)

Preseason Ranking: N/A

It's good to see Ross healthy again after a shoulder issue wrecked his 2012 season. The injury never required surgery but limited him to 54 innings the whole year, and likely contributed to an uninspiring 2013 season in which his stuff was less crisp and he failed to miss bats. In the hitter-friendly Cal League this year, he's had better results with a lower arm slot that's increased the life on his 92-94 mph fastball without reducing the effectiveness of his changeup. He's become a true groundball pitcher now who can miss some bats despite having just a fringy third pitch in his slider, and his control has improved as well. He's probably a mid-rotation guy at this point, but he's so athletic that I wouldn't bet against him exceeding that.

42. Alex Meyer, RHP | Minnesota Twins


Age: 24 | Current Level: AAA (Rochester)

Preseason Ranking: 62

Meyer throws 97-100 with plus life along with a hard upper-80s slider, coming from a low 3/4 slot that, given his 6'9" frame, has to make right-handed hitters go all "John Kruk vs Randy Johnson" in the knees. He needs to improve his changeup, as he's always had significant platoon splits, and throw more strikes, although extremely tall pitchers often take longer to develop the body control to repeat their deliveries. He might end up a reliever, but he's had enough success as a starter that the Twins should and likely will continue to use him there, forcing him to work on that third pitch.

43. Alex Jackson, OF | Seattle Mariners


Age: 18 | Current Level: Rookie

Preseason Ranking: N/A

The Mariners took Jackson with the sixth overall pick this June, gave him an above-slot bonus, and immediately took away the catcher's gear that made up a significant part of his value, since he received fine and threw very well. He's still a very good prospect as a hitter, however, with huge rotational power and good hand-eye coordination. He has the arm to handle right field but is somewhat thick-bodied and may end up in left if he gets any slower. If he starts next year in low-A, he could see the Mariners' lineup by mid-2017.

44. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP | Tampa Bay Rays


Age: 21 | Current Level: Rookie

Preseason Ranking: 66

Guerrieri is just barely back from July 2014 Tommy John surgery, with three one-inning stints in the Gulf Coast League so far. He's been 91-94 so far, below his norm of 92-97, but the Rays used the time off (which included a suspension for a positive marijuana tested that didn't cost him any games) to clean up his delivery further. He had a plus breaking ball before the injury and outstanding control, both of which may take a little more time to come back as well. He has a higher ceiling than any other arm in the Rays' system right now, and at 21 with the injury behind him he has plenty of time to develop his changeup and work on fastball command.

45. Aaron Judge, OF | New York Yankees


Age: 22 | Current Level: High A (Tampa)

Preseason Ranking: N/A

The hype that's going to Yankees right-hander Luis Severino should at least be shared with Judge, who's done nothing but hit for power and get on base all year, forcing the Yankees to do what they should have done to start the season and send him up to high-A. Judge is a beast at 6-foot-7 and 230 (or more) pounds, but with a surprisingly short path to the ball for a guy his size and plenty of loft in his finish for power. He's also quite mobile for someone his size and should be an above-average or better defender in right, with plenty of arm to stay there as well. I like Severino, who has a loose, easy arm and a chance for three above-average pitches, but Judge is higher probability and could be the middle-of-the-order bat the Yankees have tried to develop for years.

46. Andrew Heaney, LHP | Miami Marlins


Age: 23 | Current Level: AAA (New Orleans)

Preseason Ranking: 34

Heaney's brief big-league stint proved disappointing, as his changeup wasn't at all ready for prime time and right-handed hitters feasted on his average fastball. That wasn't what the Marlins had hoped for, but Heaney still projects as a mid-rotation starter with a chance for three above-average pitches and very good command. Developing the change is key, as Heaney's slight frame probably won't allow him to add velocity down the road.

47. Rio Ruiz, 3B | Houston Astros


Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Lancaster)

Preseason Ranking: N/A

Ruiz is one of the ten youngest position players in the Cal League, so even though he's hitting in one of the minors' silliest ballparks -- the whole team is hitting .292/.375/.453 this year, and hit .289/.384/.469 last year -- his performance is still promising, especially with such a high contact rate. He's adequate at third base, with good hands and a plus arm but mediocre range, good enough to stay there but unlikely to ever be plus. The potential with the bat makes him a potential above-average regular or star even in an outfield corner.

48. Lewis Brinson, CF | Texas Rangers


Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Myrtle Beach)

Preseason Ranking: N/A

Brinson is a plus defender in center already and has substantial raw power from his quick, strong wrists, but he struck out 191 times last year in low-A and hit just .232, so the Rangers sent him back to Hickory for a second year. He improved across the board this year, as a good player should when repeating a league, and earned a promotion a week ago to high-A Myrtle Beach. Even if Brinson were to strike out 30% of the time in the majors, he has the defense and power to be an extremely valuable regular, 3-4 WAR a year or more depending on what other value he can provide with the bat.

49. Dominic Smith, 1B | New York Mets


Age: 19 | Current Level: A (Savannah)

Preseason Ranking: 37

Smith's lack of power output in low-A is partially the result of his home park, as Savannah is a terrible place for left-handed power hitters, and partially the result of a whole-field approach that has Smith hitting for average while striking out at a pretty low clip -- well above the league mean or median despite his youth. Smith does have plus raw power, but we may not see much of it until he escapes the Sally League next year, much as Nimmo's power didn't come out until he left Savannah this spring.

50. Jose Berrios, RHP | Minnesota Twins


Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (New Britain)

Preseason Ranking: N/A

Berrios is a lot like Yordano Ventura for me -- undersized, loose-armed, flyball-prone, with incredible velocity from a delivery that doesn't make a ton of use of his lower half, actually showing a better breaking ball now than Ventura did at the same age. Berrios is a sub-six-foot right-hander and his fastball, while regularly 92-97, can be very flat, so hitters put it in the air rather than on the ground. His changeup has improved substantially since high school, however, and he'll have the three pitches to work as a starter, although I might try a two-seamer to see if he can get more life what will still be his primary pitch.

 

[worldbeefreeg]

Seeing three positional guys on there for my Mets made me shed a tear

 

[N41D]

We could put together a google spreadsheet to keep things organized a little easier... I don't mind getting that together tonight.

 

[proshares]

That'd be cool once we got everyone together. I'm gonna check tonight and see if I can set up a season with less that 30 teams.

 

[mr marcus]

Seeing three positional guys on there for my Mets made me shed a tear

Mets are cursed until they pay off Bonilla

 

[paul is on tilt]

P proshares

 

[Retroballer]

The interesting thing about my brother is, he's been a pitcher just five years. He's come a heck of a long ways in a fairly short amount of time. And there's more room to grow for him I feel like. This is his first full season being a starter and he says it is taking a toll on the body. But, he's learning how to handle all of that on the fly, and he's doing a good job with it.

Then there's guys like Mark Appel who are "can't miss" yet is getting absolutely rocked this season in Hi-A. ERA near 11 after his start tonight. 1 2/3 inns, 7ER. :x

About Mark Appel, in convinced he's hurt. His stuff in college and last year shouldn't be getting rocked in High A. Just got a cortisone shot in his wrist a couple of days ago. So I'm praying it's something that can be fixed or healed. We need him to be good. Lol

 

[CP1708]

That'd be cool once we got everyone together. I'm gonna check tonight and see if I can set up a season with less that 30 teams.

Are you worried you won't get 30 owners?

We should be able to get that many, even with a couple of strays. (and backups, likely )

 

[proshares]

Retro - he's been hurt a few times this year.

Age: 22 | Current Level: High A (Lancaster)

Preseason Ranking: 11

It's been a dismal year for Appel, whose raw stuff is fine but command has been off, in part due to a series of health issues. He had an offseason appendectomy to a nerve issue in a finger on his pitching hand as well as wrist tendonitis that required a cortisone shot a few weeks ago. He's still up to 97-98 and around the plate, but his feel for his slider has slipped with the finger and wrist issues, and he's giving up too much hard contact. He shouldn't be in Lancaster at all -- it's a horrible place to pitch -- but also needs to get 100 percent healthy before we're going to see the potential he showed at Stanford.

CP - not really, I just always have a back up plan I have 20 already.

 

[CP1708]

We need to set a premise for this also.

Best possible team right now or best team going forward?

It's basically either/or. Each owners preference really.

If you want to make a one year run, you could go with Jeter. If you want to have a team that will be good for a longer period of time, you could grab a minor leaguer.

Or you can mix and match, vets, guys in their primes, and young kids. All up to each owner how they want to build.

You could take no major league talent, and draft strictly from the top 50 list Pro posted, and build a complete futures core.

 

[coondog16]

Retro - he's been hurt a few times this year.
CP - not really, I just always have a back up plan I have 20 already.

Think I saw something where he's needed injections to help with his fingers or something, obviously that plays a factor in his feel he has. If that FB is indeed in that 95-98 range, the arm isn't the issue. Cal League obviously hard for pitchers as well.

 

[proshares]

Mid-Season Local TV Ratings And Measuring Fan Engagement.

Spoiler

Sports Business Journal published an article on Monday sounding the alarm about the Los Angeles Dodgers’ plummeting local TV ratings. Last season, the Dodgers averaged 226,000 households per game telecast. This season, the average is 40,000 households.

Of course the Dodgers’ ratings have plummeted. The team’s new regional sports network — SportsNetLA — isn’t available to fans who don’t subscribe to Time Warner Cable, because the network has been unable to reach distribution deals with the other cable and satellite companies like DirecTV and DISH. Only 30% of households in Los Angeles have Time Warner Cable and, thus, access to SportsNetLA. But the Dodgers lead the majors in attendance with 2,277,891 tickets sold through 49 home games, for an average of 46,487 per game.

The Houston Astros have the same ratings problem but without the benefit of a full ballpark every night. Their joint regional sports network with the Houston Rockets — Comcast SportsNet Houston — isn’t carried by any cable or satellite company other than Comcast. The situation is so dire that Comcast forced the RSN into bankruptcy last year. The dispute has now spawned additional litigation in state and federal court.

That being said, only a handful of teams have seen their average game viewership rise in the first half of the season when compared to the average game viewership for the entirety of 2013. The Yankees’ have seen the biggest bump — likely the result of Derek Jeter‘s retirement tour and the addition of Masahiro Tanaka. But the Mets, Angels, White Sox, Indians, Athletics and Padres have also seen jumps in their ratings.

For the last several years, Sports Business Journal has published a variety of mid-season and end-of-season rating information — a kind of winners and losers of ratings for that time period. SBJ relies on Nielsen’s ratings, which are proprietary and not publicly available for each team for each season or half-season. Neilsen doesn’t measure TV ratings in Canada, so we don’t have any ratings information on the Blue Jays. We also lack information on teams that don’t fall someone near the top of the ratings scale or the bottom, or haven’t seen big changes in their ratings in the last several years, like the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Rockies.

I’ve taken SBJ’s stories from the last few years and pieced together a chart showing the number of households in each team’s Designated Market Area in 2014 (as defined by Nielsen) and the average number of households viewing the team’s telecasts in various time periods. I recognize that the population in each DMA may have shifted somewhat since 2012, but not enough to undermine the value of the chart. If you want to dig into the numbers, you can find links to SBJ’s most recent stories here, here and here. I’ve separately tracked down some ratings information on the Chicago Cubs and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Team Households in TV Market Ave. HHS 2012 Season Ave. HHS Mid-2013 Season Ave. HHS 2013 Season Ave. HHS Mid-2014 Season
Mets 7,461,030 173,000 135,000 118,000 138,000
Yankees 7,461,030 296,000 185,000 194,000 228,000
Angels 5,665,780 83,000 69,000 80,000
Dodgers 5,665,780 109,000 126,000 154,000 40,000
Cubs 3,534,080 62,000 56,000 56,500 52,000
Phillies 2,963,500 168,000 113,000 100,000
White Sox 2,963,500 73,000 42,000 40,000 49,000
Rangers 2,655,290 151,000 123,000 121,000 71,000
Athletics 2,518,900 32,000 29,000 31,500 33,000
Giants 2,518,900 113,000 104,000
Red Sox 2,433,040 153,000 163,000 173,000 128,000
Nationals 2,412,250 61,000 69,000 46,000
Braves 2,375,050 76,000 104,500 96,000 67,000
Astros 2,289,360 20,000 10,000 9,000 9,000
Tigers 1,856,310 168,000 165,000 178,000 140,000
Diamondbacks 1,855,310
Mariners 1,847,780
Rays 1,827,510 88,000 89,000
Twins 1,748,070 89,000 65,000
Marlins 1,663,290 32,000 18,000 27,000
Rockies 1,574,610
Indians 1,387,950 58,000 79,000 81,000 86,000
Cardinals 1,254,530 103,000 101,000 109,000 93,500
Pirates 1,181,540 75,500 72,500 94,000 75,000
Orioles 1,095,240 52,000 66,000 71,000
Padres 1,080,880 22,000 29,000 32,000
Royals 941,980 36,000 54,500 61,000
Brewers 916,950 47,000 41,000 54,000
Reds 906,210 78,000 71,000 70,000 58,000
We can see a few trends that cut across big and small-market teams. Winning generally boosts ratings. Competing for a spot in the postseason kicks up ratings in the second half. Losing hurts ratings. A lot. This is similar to what we’ve recently seen with attendance – a closer temporal nexus between winning and changes in fan behavior. Previous studies had shown that winning tended to increase attendance in the following season.

Still, we are missing critical information that would put the local TV ratings into better context. Radio, for example. SBJ published a story at the end of the 2012 season with information on radio ratings for the 2010, 2011 and 2012 seasons, but only for some of the teams. That information came from Arbitron, which, like Nielsen, sells its ratings information and doesn’t otherwise make it publicly available. Take a look at SBJ’s chart. Baseball on the radio is still a huge draw for teams in the Midwest, when seen as a percentage of the listening public, defined by Arbitron as anyone over the age of 12. And it’s become much more popular in the San Francisco Bay Area after the Giants won the World Series in 2010 and 2012.

At the same time, MLB Advanced Media’s CEO Bob Bowman told reporters in 2013 that MLB.tv at At-Bat had together experienced 20% year-over-year growth and had reached three million subscribers. But that’s all we know. We don’t know where those subscribers are, what and when they listen to games, or what and when they watch.

And then there’s the social media angle. Several sites have attempted to measure a team’s popularity and the intensity of its fans by using Google Trends (Five Thirty Eight) or Facebook likes (NYT’s The Upshot). But there are many questions raised by these analyses which haven’t been answered (this critique does a good job), which makes it difficult to know exactly what to do with the data.

The local TV ratings provide useful information, but they are only a snapshot, and even then, just a piece of the larger puzzle that is fan engagement. The other pieces include attendance, radio listeners, social media, and merchandise sales. Right now, only the attendance figures (or, more accurately, tickets sold) are publicly available for all games and all teams. We should work toward a metric that incorporates all of these data. But we are not there yet.

2014 Trade Value: #20 – #11.

Spoiler

Welcome to the fourth part of this year’s Trade Value series. If you haven’t already, read the intro and get yourself acquainted with what question this is trying to answer, as well as an incomplete list of guys who missed the cut for one reason or another. You can see all the posts in the series here.

A few quick notes on the columns listed for each player. After the normal biographical information, I’ve listed Projected WAR, which is essentially a combination of ZIPS and Steamer’s current rest-of-season forecasts extrapolated out to a full-season’s worth of playing time. For non-catcher position players, this is 600 plate appearances; catchers are extrapolated to 450 PAs. For pitchers, this is extrapolated to 200 innings. It is not their 2014 WAR, or their last calendar year WAR; it is a rough estimate of what we might expect them to do over a full-season, based on the information we have now.

For contract status, we have two pieces of information. “Controlled Through” includes all years before a player accumulates enough time to be eligible for free agency, all guaranteed years of a contract already signed, and any years covered by team options that could be exercised in the future. Player options and mutual options are not included, as the assumption is that players of this caliber will generally opt-out of their current contracts if given the chance.

The “Contract Dollars” column includes the base salaries of each player in the controlled years going forward, starting from 2015 — the 40% of 2014 salary remaining is not included in the calculation — including the value of team options, since we’re assuming that they will be picked up. In many cases, players have incentives for various accomplishments that affect the base salaries, but those are not accounted for here, simply because of the tedious work of calculating all those incentive prices and the fact that $100,000 for an All-Star appearance or $500,000 for an MVP-finish there aren’t going to change the overall calculations. This column is not an exact representation of their future earnings, but should be close enough for our purposes.

For players who are under team control but not under guaranteed contract, I’ve listed out which arbitration years they still have remaining. There are a few players who have both guaranteed contracts and arbitration eligibility remaining, but we’ll deal with those cases in the article when a simple line in the chart doesn’t explain their situation perfectly.

Finally, “Last Year” notes where a player was ranked on this list last year, or if he wasn’t on the 2013 Trade Value series, then he is denoted as unranked. As you can imagine, there’s a lot more turnover at the end of the list than the beginning.

Now, for the upper-middle class of the list.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
20 Adam Wainwright 32 STL SP 3.9 2018 $78,000,000 23
Groove-gate aside, Wainwright is having another fantastic season, and he’s probably going to give Clayton Kershaw a run for his money in the final NL Cy Young tally. Unlike Kershaw, and most other pitchers at this level, Wainwright is downright affordable, having signed a below market deal to stay in St. Louis, so he’ll make just under $20 million per season for the next four years. For one of the best pitchers in baseball, that’s a pretty significant bargain.

But there are some cracks starting to show in the armor. His strikeout rate and groundball rate are both down slightly this year, and he’s generating the lowest infield fly rate of his career. He’s not going to sustain either the .250 BABIP or the 3.3% HR/FB ratio, and given that he’s pushing 33, the end of the contract might not be so great.

But there’s still a tremendous amount of short-term value here. Over the next couple of years, few elite players in the game will be able to match Wainwright’s value.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
19 Felix Hernandez 28 SEA SP 5.7 2019 $129,000,000 22
Minor spoiler: there are only two players on this entire list with a projected WAR higher than Felix’s +5.7, and both of those guys are going to appear in tomorrow’s top 10. In terms of pure on-field value, Hernandez has a case to be 10 spots higher, but we can’t ignore the $130 million elephant in the room. He’s a great pitcher being paid like a great pitcher, and his salary would eliminate a decent amount of teams from the bidding before it even began.

But for a well-financed team looking to acquire a franchise pitcher, it’s hard to do much better than this. He’s as close to a perfect pitcher as there is in the American League, combining sheer dominance with remarkable durability. Even as his fastball has gotten slower, he’s gotten better, leaning more heavily on the best change-up in the game. He’s even solved his early-career command issues, and has now lowered his walk rate for the fourth consecutive year.

The only reason he ranks this low is the contract. $26 million a year is a lot of money, and that kind of price-tag limits the overall value a bit.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
18 Madison Bumgarner 24 SF SP 3.3 2019 $52,000,000 19
I spent too much time trying to figure out the order of these last two, when in reality, a one-spot difference is nothing, and I’m not trying to make any kind of statement by putting Bumgarner ahead of Hernandez. I could easily have flipped them and been just as okay with it. The differences in performance and differences in contractual obligations almost entirely cancel out.

Bumgarner’s more of a good pitcher than a great pitcher, but he’s also just being paid as if he’s an average pitcher. Teams would rather have Hernandez on the mound, but would they pay an extra $15 million per year to have Hernandez instead? The projected win difference here is about +2.5 WAR, so the extra wins that Hernandez adds are priced at about $6 million apiece, or pretty close to the recent market rate for wins. Maybe you can argue that Hernandez’s wins are extra valuable because they don’t require another spot, but then, you could argue that the risk is much higher because you’re tying those extra wins up in a single pitcher’s health.

Whether you prefer great and expensive or good and reasonably priced is probably a matter of taste. Bumgarner probably isn’t quite in the same league as the previous two pitchers or a couple that are still to come, but he’s a heck of a lot cheaper. Every team in baseball could afford Madison Bumgarner, which can’t be said of some of the other players in this tier.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
17 Josh Donaldson 28 OAK 3B 4.5 2018 Arb1 – Arb4 Unranked
Speaking of difficult players to rank, Donaldson was one of the more challenging players to place on the list. He was one of the game’s elite players last year, combining elite offense with high quality defense to become the year’s biggest breakout star. This year, the offense has taken a step backwards, but it’s almost entirely a BABIP-driven decline, and the defense has remained excellent. The projections for him are still excellent even though they’re suspicious of his future offensive performance, and if you think he’s going to hit better than he has this year, they might even undersell him as a player.

But he’s 28, and a lot of his value is predicated on great defense at third base, which teams traditionally haven’t paid a premium for. He’s also going to be a Super-Two player, meaning that all four of his remaining team control years will come at arbitration prices, making the last year of team control not so valuable if the prices accelerate quickly. So he’s good and cheap now, but projecting how good and how cheap he’ll be over the next few years is difficult, and he has the kind of skillset that teams generally don’t pay full value for.

I could argue that he should be five spots higher or 10 spots lower, but this is where he ended up. In a year, this ranking will probably look dumb either way, as he’ll either have cemented himself as an elite player or distanced himself even further from his 2013 season. But until we know which way he is going, it’s hard for me to move him too far from this tier.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
16 Yu Darvish 27 TEX SP 5.1 2016 $20,000,000 20
This is one of those contracts that can’t be adequately described in the table. Darvish is technically under team control through 2017, but the final year of his deal converts into a player option based on a few scenarios related to his Cy Young placement over the life of the contract. Because he already finished second in the Cy Young voting last year, the final year of the deal goes away if he wins the Cy Young either this year or either of the next two, or finishes in the top four in two of the next three seasons, including this one.

Barring injury, I think he’s a good bet to finish in the top four this year, so realistically, the only way the 2017 season remains under team control is if Darvish finishes outside the top four in Cy Young voting in each of the next two seasons. It’s possible, certainly, but it also means that something went wrong, because Darvish is one of the four best pitchers in the American League.

So, for planning purposes, I’m treating the 2017 season as if it is likely to become a player option, which Darvish will not exercise, because he’s making a fraction of what he’s actually worth. That leaves him with just two remaining years of team control, but both years are ridiculously cheap, and it’s not the worst thing in the world to not have a long-term commitment to a pitcher. The shorter window of team control might push out some rebuilding teams, but for a contender looking for a short-term boost to their rotation, a $10 million Darvish would be tough to beat.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
15 Giancarlo Stanton 24 MIA OF 5.0 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 8
Speaking of two very valuable years of team control, we have the player who has been the focus of more trade speculation over the last few years than just about anyone else. I think every team’s fan base has, at some point, dreamed about what their team could offer up for the Hercules of baseball, and yet, Stanton remains a Marlin. And he remains a Marlin in part because of the potential for an extension.

While he only has two years left before free agency, Stanton is at an age where a long-term deal doesn’t have to become an albatross. The Marlins could give him a 10 year deal this winter and still only have him locked up through age-34, so even with the expected high cost of signing Stanton long-term, there’s value in being able to do it sooner than later. And any team acquiring his rights would then also inherit the value of getting an extension done now, rather than waiting to try and outbid everyone when he’s heading into his age-27 season.

And Stanton has the skillset that every team wants right now. His days of being cheap are coming to an end, but he’s great enough to be valuable even on an expensive deal.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
14 Jonathan Lucroy 28 MIL C 3.9 2017 $12,250,000 Unranked
The rapid rise of Jonathan Lucroy has been something to watch. He wasn’t a top prospect when he got to the big leagues as a 24 year old in 2010, and then he proceeded to not hit at all. The Brewers saw enough improvement in year two to sign him long-term, but at that point, he was a 25 year old with an 84 wRC+ in the big leagues. He didn’t walk or hit for power, and he struck out at a league average rate, so there didn’t appear to be a lot of reason to be excited about his potential.

And yet, since the start of the 2012 season, he’s hit .301/.360/.482, good for a 129 wRC+. He stopped striking out and added power, which is a nice combination if you can pull it off. Now, Lucroy is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, and oh yeah, he’s also the poster boy for the value of pitch framing. Like with Yadier Molina, the WAR forecast almost certainly is understating his value, and Lucroy might very well be more of a +5 WAR player, pushing him into legitimately elite territory.

Oh yeah, about that extension he signed: it will pay him $3 million next year, $4 million the year after, and then includes a team option for $5 million in 2017. That’s right; maybe the best catcher in baseball is locked up at three more years for a grand total of $12 million. Not per year. Total.

So why is he even this low? Well, for one, he’s a 28 year old catcher, which is something akin to being a 31 or 32 year old anything else. And even though pitch framing has become the topic du jour in baseball over the last few years, teams still have shown no interest in paying any kind of premium for it in either trades or free agency. For better or worse, catchers are still mostly evaluated based on how they hit and control the running game, so Lucroy’s best skill is unlikely to generate significant extra return in trade. Even without the framing value, though, Lucroy is still a beast, and one of the quietest true stars in baseball.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
13 Anthony Rendon 24 WAS 2B 3.5 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 44
When the Nationals announced they were converting Anthony Rendon to second base, the public reaction was less than positive. His history of ankle problems didn’t seem to play well with a move up the defensive spectrum, especially to a position where he’d have to take a bunch of hard slides, and many were skeptical he’d even be adequate at the position, even ignoring perceived health risks.

However, Rendon has managed to not only avoid injury, but become a pretty solid defender at second base in short order. He’s probably still going to play more games at third over the course of his career, but at least in the near term, there’s no real need to move him back to third as he’s currently one of the most valuable second baseman in baseball.

Of course, Rendon’s calling card has always been his bat, and he’s developed into one of the best young hitters in the game. Even as a guy who is still more gap power than a big home run threat, he’s running a 132 wRC+, and there’s room for growth if some of those doubles and triples start clearing the wall with more regularity. Toss in five more years of team control, and Rendon looks like a true franchise cornerstone.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
12 Anthony Rizzo 24 CHC 1B 3.3 2021 $64,000,000 37
I love Andrew Cashner, but I think we can stop asking which side won the Padres-Cubs challenge trade from a few years back. Rizzo might not ever become a superstar — the bar needed for that level as a first baseman is very hard to clear — but he’s solidified his position as one of the game’s better young hitters. He controls the strike zone far better than most players his age, and if he continues to build on the power he’s shown this year, he might end up a +5 WAR player yet.

But with Rizzo, it’s not just the youth and the bat; it’s also the contract. He’s set to make $5 million in each of the next two years, $7 million in each of the two years after that, $11 million in 2019, and then the team has $15 million options for both 2020 and 2021. Rizzo has seven years left on his deal, and even if both options are picked up, the average salary is still less than $10 million per season. The Cubs managed to buy out the prime years of the most expensive thing in baseball at bargain salaries. This deal is basically all upside, providing both short-term and long-term value.

Rizzo might settle in as a good player instead of a great one, but he’s a crazy cheap good player, and will remain cheap for the better part of the next decade.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
11 Chris Sale 25 CHW SP 5.0 2019 $53,150,000 16
Speaking of crazy cheap players in Chicago, Chris Sale is basically Yu Darvish if you extended his deal for an extra three years. Or Felix Hernandez, if the Mariners were also subsidizing 60% of his remaining contract. Sale is right there with the game’s best pitchers, only he’s earning about one-third of what elite pitchers make these days and he has no real chance for a significant raise any time soon.

Or, I’ll put it this way. If a team had a choice between Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale over the next five years, the money they’d save by choosing Sale would allow them to also afford Adam Wainwright. And that’s why Sale is the most valuable pitcher in baseball right now.

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap this thing up with the top 10. Get ready for a run of truly great position players. As preparation, here is the published list to date.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
50 Yan Gomes 26 CLE C 3.4 2021 $40,950,000 Unranked
49 Starling Marte 25 PIT OF 3.0 2021 $52,500,000 31
48 Kyle Seager 26 SEA 3B 3.4 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked
47 Alex Cobb 26 TB SP 3.1 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked
46 Edwin Encarnacion 31 TOR DH 3.7 2016 $20,000,000 45
45 Julio Teheran 23 ATL SP 2.3 2020 $41,600,000 Unranked
44 Chris Archer 25 TB SP 2.4 2021 $42,250,000 Unranked
43 Devin Mesoraco 26 CIN C 3.0 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked
42 Corey Kluber 28 CLE SP 3.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
41 Michael Brantley 27 CLE OF 2.6 2018 $30,000,000 Unranked
40 David Wright 31 NYM 3B 4.1 2020 $107,000,000 21
39 Dustin Pedroia 30 BOS 2B 4.2 2021 $107,500,000 25
38 Byron Buxton 20 MIN OF 1.2 TBD Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
37 Jose Quintana 25 CHW SP 3.3 2020 $40,650,000 Unranked
36 Billy Hamilton 23 CIN OF 2.7 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
35 Matt Carpenter 28 STL 3B 3.9 2020 $66,000,000 Unranked
34 Jose Fernandez 21 MIA SP 4.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 17
33 Carlos Gomez 28 MIL OF 4.8 2016 $17,000,000 33
32 Yordano Ventura 23 KC SP 2.8 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
31 Sonny Gray 24 OAK SP 3.0 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
30 Gregory Polanco 22 PIT OF 1.5 2020 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
29 Kris Bryant 22 CHC 3B 2.8 TBD Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
28 Andrelton Simmons 24 ATL SS 3.8 2020 $56,000,000 Unranked
27 Jose Bautista 33 TOR OF 4.8 2016 $28,000,000 35
26 Stephen Strasburg 25 WAS SP 4.4 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 14
25 Matt Harvey 25 NYM SP 3.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 7
24 Freddie Freeman 24 ATL 1B 3.7 2021 $123,500,000 Unranked
23 Xander Bogaerts 21 BOS SS 2.0 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 29
22 Yadier Molina 31 STL C 4.5 2017 $43,000,000 11
21 Buster Posey 27 SF C 4.9 2022 $165,500,000 6
20 Adam Wainwright 32 STL SP 3.9 2018 $78,000,000 23
19 Felix Hernandez 28 SEA SP 5.7 2019 $129,000,000 22
18 Madison Bumgarner 24 SF SP 3.3 2019 $52,000,000 19
17 Josh Donaldson 28 OAK 3B 4.5 2018 Arb1 – Arb4 Unranked
16 Yu Darvish 27 TEX SP 5.1 2016 $20,000,000 20
15 Giancarlo Stanton 24 MIA OF 5.0 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 8
14 Jonathan Lucroy 28 MIL C 3.9 2017 $12,250,000 Unranked
13 Anthony Rendon 24 WAS 2B 3.5 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 44
12 Anthony Rizzo 24 CHC 1B 3.3 2021 $64,000,000 37
11 Chris Sale 25 CHW SP 5.0 2019 $53,150,000 16

 

[HIM]

Yea I'm in. And if we're determining the winner via MLB TS then I know which guys to take