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not my fault, blame it on the new sneakertalk. i made this post back when we were NT...
I'll fix it tho..
2012 Official NFL Fantasy Football Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by HEATHEN,
- Start date
not my fault, blame it on the new sneakertalk. i made this post back when we were NT...
I'll fix it tho..
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Can't wait.. we're doing online draft then bbq and crawfish afterwards 
We made the mistake of passing out the henny too soon
Looking forward to this year.. play 2 leagues every year and have won one league the past 3 years.. I hope I land 9-12 that's where I've been most successful.. every time I get a top 3 pick my teams always seem to do doodoo
We made the mistake of passing out the henny too soon
Looking forward to this year.. play 2 leagues every year and have won one league the past 3 years.. I hope I land 9-12 that's where I've been most successful.. every time I get a top 3 pick my teams always seem to do doodoo
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- Jul 19, 2012
In a keeper/salary league ... Can only keep 5 ppl.
Just traded Malcom Floyd ($15) and D.Moore ($1) for Desean Jackson ($52).
Jackson will be my #2 behind Megatron.
And I'm trying to trade for AJ Green to be my #3.
Cant wait for this season
Just traded Malcom Floyd ($15) and D.Moore ($1) for Desean Jackson ($52).
Jackson will be my #2 behind Megatron.
And I'm trying to trade for AJ Green to be my #3.
Cant wait for this season
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You want to try something new? Do IDPs.
It changes things and makes it MUCH more fun, trust. First did it about 4 years ago. Havent done Team Defenses since.
It changes things and makes it MUCH more fun, trust. First did it about 4 years ago. Havent done Team Defenses since.
- 15,990
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- Jun 16, 2008
In a keeper/salary league ... Can only keep 5 ppl.
Just traded Malcom Floyd ($15) and D.Moore ($1) for Desean Jackson ($52).
Jackson will be my #2 behind Megatron.
And I'm trying to trade for AJ Green to be my #3.
Cant wait for this season
nice trade, you robbed the living day lights out of the guy.
malcom floyd will probably be the 2nd starter behind meachem.
whereas D.Moore is pretty much the clear cut starter (unless DHB really sets himself apart this pre-season and wins Palmer's preference).
and DeSean Jackson is likely going to bounce back from his down year this season. I doubt he'll outperform Jeremy Maclin, but I think their production will be about on par (slight edge to Maclin as he'll be Vick's go to target whereas DeSean is more of a down-field, big play, type of talent).
If Vick is healthy both Maclin and DeSean should put up solid numbers for their respective owners.
Oh and if you do land AJ Green, he'd be better suited to be your #2 receiver as I see him finishing in the top 5 amongst all fantasy receivers...
He's that good.
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When to draft Trent Richardson?
Browns' rookie has opportunity on his side, but inexperience surrounds him
Updated: July 18, 2012, 6:07 PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
How high should rookie Trent Richardson be drafted in fantasy leagues?
Shortly after the Cleveland Browns drafted Trent Richardson with the third overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, Jim Brown was quoted as saying he thought the running back was "ordinary" and that he saw nothing outstanding about him.
While you don't have to agree with the Hall of Fame legend's assessment, you would do well to understand well before you select Richardson in your fantasy football draft that the odds of the rookie doing something extraordinary are not that great.
Deciding to hang your hat on a newcomer to the NFL -- even one who rushed for 1,679 yards and scored 24 total touchdowns in his final season at Alabama -- is an incredible risk. Why? Because in order to be considered worthy of being a top-10 running back selection you need to be counted on for about 80 yards per game and a touchdown approximately every other game.
Over the past several seasons, you can see that's pretty much where the bar has been residing:
RBs to average 80 or more yards rushing per game
Minimum 10 games played, Since 2005
2011: 9
2010: 7
2009: 9
2008: 9
2007: 10
2006: 11
2005: 11
But regardless of how good Richardson might be, it is a pretty rare occurrence for a rookie running back to reach this plateau. Since 1995, only 14 rookies have managed to accomplish the feat, and not a one has pulled it off in any of the past three seasons. That group of "slow starters" includes a bevy of backs taken in the first round, such as Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best and Richardson's former Crimson Tide teammate, Mark Ingram.
Player Team Games Rush Yds TD YPG
Chris Johnson 2008 TEN 15 1,228 9 81.9
Steve Slaton 2008 HOU 16 1,282 9 80.1
Marshawn Lynch 2007 BUF 13 1,115 7 85.8
Adrian Peterson 2007 MIN 14 1,341 12 95.8
Cadillac Williams 2005 TB 14 1,178 6 84.1
Clinton Portis 2002 DEN 16 1,508 15 94.3
Anthony Thomas 2001 CHI 14 1,183 7 84.5
Mike Anderson 2000 DEN 16 1,487 15 92.9
Jamal Lewis 2000 BAL 16 1,364 6 85.3
Edgerrin James 1999 IND 16 1,553 13 97.1
Olandis Gary 1999 DEN 12 1,159 7 96.9
Fred Taylor 1998 JAC 15 1,223 14 81.5
Eddie George 1996 HOU 16 1,368 8 85.5
Curtis Martin 1995 NE 16 1,487 14 92.9
Now let's throw another monkey wrench into the mix: Rookie Brandon Weeden is likely to start the majority of games at quarterback for the Browns. So while there likely isn't much in the way of competition for Richardson to get most of the carries with leftover parts such as Montario Hardesty, Brandon Jackson and Chris Ogbonnaya as his only rivals for the rock, there's also not a lot of experience in that huddle.
Mistakes are bound to be made.
Traditionally, Cleveland hasn't exactly been the birthplace of breakout backs. Before Jamal Lewis met our "80-10" benchmark in 2007 (in his eighth year in the league, mind you), you have to go back all the way to Mike Pruitt in 1979 to find another Browns runner to reach that goal. Even with the team's three-year "hiatus" in the 1990s, that's not exactly a stellar track record.
Now nobody is saying that Richardson is going to be a complete bust, and certainly with Brad Childress as the team's new offensive coordinator -- the same man who coached Adrian Peterson when he broke on the scene in 2007 -- there's reason for optimism. Richardson should not only get a ton of handoffs, but will almost certainly be worked into the passing mix as well. He'll be in there on nearly every down.
That said, playing in a division with three of the returning top-10 defenses against the run certainly makes the margin for error a lot smaller than had Richardson been drafted elsewhere. The Cleveland offensive line has just two members with more than three years of NFL experience (Alex Mack and Joe Thomas) and supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon may not be completely ready to step into the wide receiver mix out of the gate.
In short, the Cleveland Browns are looking awfully green on offense, which makes me quite yellow when it comes to selecting Richardson any higher than the No. 15-17 running back off the board. Unless you're in a keeper league in which, much like Cleveland, you're already planning ahead for the future, you really can't afford to pick him any sooner.
Browns' rookie has opportunity on his side, but inexperience surrounds him
Updated: July 18, 2012, 6:07 PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
How high should rookie Trent Richardson be drafted in fantasy leagues?
Shortly after the Cleveland Browns drafted Trent Richardson with the third overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, Jim Brown was quoted as saying he thought the running back was "ordinary" and that he saw nothing outstanding about him.
While you don't have to agree with the Hall of Fame legend's assessment, you would do well to understand well before you select Richardson in your fantasy football draft that the odds of the rookie doing something extraordinary are not that great.
Deciding to hang your hat on a newcomer to the NFL -- even one who rushed for 1,679 yards and scored 24 total touchdowns in his final season at Alabama -- is an incredible risk. Why? Because in order to be considered worthy of being a top-10 running back selection you need to be counted on for about 80 yards per game and a touchdown approximately every other game.
Over the past several seasons, you can see that's pretty much where the bar has been residing:
RBs to average 80 or more yards rushing per game
Minimum 10 games played, Since 2005
2011: 9
2010: 7
2009: 9
2008: 9
2007: 10
2006: 11
2005: 11
But regardless of how good Richardson might be, it is a pretty rare occurrence for a rookie running back to reach this plateau. Since 1995, only 14 rookies have managed to accomplish the feat, and not a one has pulled it off in any of the past three seasons. That group of "slow starters" includes a bevy of backs taken in the first round, such as Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best and Richardson's former Crimson Tide teammate, Mark Ingram.
Player Team Games Rush Yds TD YPG
Chris Johnson 2008 TEN 15 1,228 9 81.9
Steve Slaton 2008 HOU 16 1,282 9 80.1
Marshawn Lynch 2007 BUF 13 1,115 7 85.8
Adrian Peterson 2007 MIN 14 1,341 12 95.8
Cadillac Williams 2005 TB 14 1,178 6 84.1
Clinton Portis 2002 DEN 16 1,508 15 94.3
Anthony Thomas 2001 CHI 14 1,183 7 84.5
Mike Anderson 2000 DEN 16 1,487 15 92.9
Jamal Lewis 2000 BAL 16 1,364 6 85.3
Edgerrin James 1999 IND 16 1,553 13 97.1
Olandis Gary 1999 DEN 12 1,159 7 96.9
Fred Taylor 1998 JAC 15 1,223 14 81.5
Eddie George 1996 HOU 16 1,368 8 85.5
Curtis Martin 1995 NE 16 1,487 14 92.9
Now let's throw another monkey wrench into the mix: Rookie Brandon Weeden is likely to start the majority of games at quarterback for the Browns. So while there likely isn't much in the way of competition for Richardson to get most of the carries with leftover parts such as Montario Hardesty, Brandon Jackson and Chris Ogbonnaya as his only rivals for the rock, there's also not a lot of experience in that huddle.
Mistakes are bound to be made.
Traditionally, Cleveland hasn't exactly been the birthplace of breakout backs. Before Jamal Lewis met our "80-10" benchmark in 2007 (in his eighth year in the league, mind you), you have to go back all the way to Mike Pruitt in 1979 to find another Browns runner to reach that goal. Even with the team's three-year "hiatus" in the 1990s, that's not exactly a stellar track record.
Now nobody is saying that Richardson is going to be a complete bust, and certainly with Brad Childress as the team's new offensive coordinator -- the same man who coached Adrian Peterson when he broke on the scene in 2007 -- there's reason for optimism. Richardson should not only get a ton of handoffs, but will almost certainly be worked into the passing mix as well. He'll be in there on nearly every down.
That said, playing in a division with three of the returning top-10 defenses against the run certainly makes the margin for error a lot smaller than had Richardson been drafted elsewhere. The Cleveland offensive line has just two members with more than three years of NFL experience (Alex Mack and Joe Thomas) and supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon may not be completely ready to step into the wide receiver mix out of the gate.
In short, the Cleveland Browns are looking awfully green on offense, which makes me quite yellow when it comes to selecting Richardson any higher than the No. 15-17 running back off the board. Unless you're in a keeper league in which, much like Cleveland, you're already planning ahead for the future, you really can't afford to pick him any sooner.
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I'm thinking of heading up a 12-team dynasty/keeper ESPN league that drafts after the 3rd week of pre-season (Around August 27th).
I'm looking for dedicated, seasoned fantasy vets as this will be a dynasty league. It'll be standard ESPN roster settings (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, FLEX, TE, D/ST, K, 7 bench slots) and standard ESPN scoring (non-ppr).
I'll think of all the details (how many keepers per season and what not, I'm leaning towards 2 or 3 keeper) but for now anyone that wants to join hit the inbox or leave a message, I'll create the league and password protect it.
I'm looking for dedicated, seasoned fantasy vets as this will be a dynasty league. It'll be standard ESPN roster settings (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, FLEX, TE, D/ST, K, 7 bench slots) and standard ESPN scoring (non-ppr).
I'll think of all the details (how many keepers per season and what not, I'm leaning towards 2 or 3 keeper) but for now anyone that wants to join hit the inbox or leave a message, I'll create the league and password protect it.
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RB BREAK DOWN (Courtesy of Holben over at Rotoworld.com forums)
49ers - Primary - Frank Gore - Other Backs - Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James
Going auction value for Frank Gore - $19
I will personally be avoiding Frank Gore. He had an uninspiring 2011 season that was made to look good thanks to outlier games in weeks 4, 5, 6, and 8 which had 4 of his only 5 100+ yard games for the season. His season was very uninspiring and the addition of Thomas Jones and LaMichael James gives me further pause that Frank Gore will see a reduced workload to keep him fresh all season long for San Francisco's hopefuly repeat playoff appearance.
Bears - Primary - Matt Forte - Other Backs - Michael Bush
Going auction value for Matt Forte - $39
I love Forte this year. He signed a contract to stay with the Bears for a few more years and he has a relevant handcuff. What else is there not to like? The price tag? It will probably rise to the $39 level closer to draft day but right now in mocks I regularly see him going in the $30-$35 range especially depending on how much people spent on other RBs earlier. Last year he cracked the top 15 RBs while missing 1/3rd of the season with an MCL injury. Luckily those aren't too severe and he is already back to full form. If he stayed on his current track last year he would have ended up with close to 240 points (.5 ppr) which would have solidfied him as the #5 RB behind Arian Foster. If the unfortunate does occur and he goes down with an injury, Michael Bush showed us last year filling in for an injured Darren McFadden that he can still be a decent RB2 if he needs to take over the main duties.
Bengals - Benjarvus Green-Ellis/Bernard Scott
Going auction value - $13 for BJGE, $1 for Bernard Scott
I sense a joke about The Law Firm and the Bengals but in all honesty, the Vikings, Raiders, or Marshawn Lynch could use his legal services just as badly.
Bengals announced they plan for a commitee approach exclaiming the days of the bellcow are dead which is the last thing any fantasy football player wants to hear. I would be willing to personally spend less than $5 on BGE if I was sure he would see more than 50/50 split but we really won't know anything until the pre-season rolls around. Hopefully we see nothing of BGE in the pre-season games to plummet his value by draft day and we can get him and Bernard Scott as a stash depending on how deep your league is.
Bills - Primary - Fred Jackson, Backup - C.J. Spiller
Going auction value - $22 for Fred Jackson, $8 for C.J. Spiller
Initially I was high on Fred Jackson. He was amazing last seasons until a broken leg sidelined him and then C.J. Spiller took over and showed ample performance. In 2012 their is talk of a comitte approach. This same talk led to C.J. Spiller being overdrafted and Fred Jackson being undervalued last season as it was believed Spiller would overtake Jackson at some point. That comittee approach never happened but that doesn't mean it won't in 2012 as Spiller showed promise filling in for Jackson. At current prices you need to spend at least $30 for this runningback and his handcuff. For the same price you have a chance at getting Steven Jackson, Darren Sproles, Ahmad Bradshaw and possibly Matt Forte as well as their backups. Your best bet maybe to let someone else deal with Jackson and nab Spiller for a bench stash later in the draft and do a similar tactic for those who took Bush to spite McFadden owners last year. Make him pay an arm and a leg for the backup and laugh if he refuses before his starter goes down.
Broncos - Primary - Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee, Ronnie Hillman
Going auction value - Less than $1 each
Two of these guys aren't really that great, one of these guys isn't going to make the team, and one of these guys could be a breakout candidate with a $1 flyer pick at the end of the draft. Yes, Yes. I know it's a Peyton Manning offense now, but here are some past stats I will let you guys mull over as well as some point values for .5 PPR leagues.
Colts 1998 - Faulk - 324 Attempts, 1319 Yards, 6 TDs, 86 Receptions, 908 Yards, 4 TDs - 287 Points
Colts 1999 - Edgerrin James - 369 Attempts, 1553 Yards, 13 TDs, 62 Rec, 586 Yards, 4 TDs - 319 Points
Colts 2000 - Edgerrin James - 387 Attempts, 1709 Yards, 13 TDs. 63 Rec, 594 Yards. 5 TDs - 340 Points
Colts 2001 - Domonic Rhodes - 233 Attempts, 1104 Yards, 9 TDs. 34 Rec, 224 Yards, 0 TDs - 196 Points
Colts 2002 - Edgerrin James - 227 Attempts, 989 Yards, 2 TDs, 61 Rec, 354 Yards, 11 TDs - 209 Points
Colts 2003 - Edgerrin James - 310 Attempts, 1259 Yards, 11 TDs, 51 Rec, 292 Yards, 0 TDs - 236 Points
Colts 2004 - Edgerrin James - 334 Attempts, 1548 Yards, 9 TDs, 51 Rec, 483 Yards, 0 TDs - 266 Points
Colts 2005 - Edgerrin James - 360 Attempts, 1506 Yards, 13 TDs, 44 Rec, 337 Yards, 1 TD - 277 Points
Colts 2006 - Joseph Addai - 226 Attempts, 1081 Yards, 7 TDs, 40 Rec, 325 Yards, 1 TD - 195 Points
Colts 2007 - Joseph Addai - 261 Attempts, 1072 Yards, 12 TDs, 41 Rec, 364 Yards, 3 TDs - 235 Points
Joseph Addai had a 12-game season in 2008...
Colts 2008 - Addai/Dhominic Rhodes - 307 Attempts, 1082 Yards, 11 TDs, 70 Rec, 508 Yards, 5 TDs - 263 Points
Colts 2009 - Joseph Addai - 219 Attempts, 828 Yards, 10 TDs, 51 Rec, 336 Yards, 3 TDs - 202 Points
Joseph Addai had another short season in 2010...
Colts 2010 - Addai/Donald Brown - 245 Attempts, 992 Yards, 6 TDs, 39 Rec, 329 Yards, 0 TDs - 176 Points
Compared to last year, those numbers are good enough to end up in the Top 15 running backs EVERY YEAR of Mannings career.
Browns - Primary - Trent Richardson - Backup - Brandon Jackson
Going auction value - $20-$25
Really I don't have much to say on him. I want to see this guy play in the preseason. The main knock against him besides the knee scope after the combine is that he is a rookie and it is a different ballgame than College ball. I know, I just pumped up a rookie prospect in the previous team I discussed but that is a Peyton Manning team who has shown consistent useage of his runningbacks through an entire 13-year career. Trent Richardson is playing on a Brandon Weedon offense with Greg Little and Mohammod Massaquoaklg as the primary WRs. Will they be playing catchup all season and rely more on the passing game or will they attempt to control the ball and have Trent constantly trying to move the chains play after play? It is a tough call that cannot be known for sure until pre-season but this pick comes with a big rookie risk on a rookie team.
Bucaneers - Primary - Doug Martin - Backup/GLB - LeGarrette Blount
Current auction value - $10 or less
I'm glad I never bought into the Blount hype of last year because it was way overrated. With that said, he was drafted to replace Blount and the Buc's have said they would like to transition to a more run heavy offense. For his current price, I like him a lot more than Trent Richardson and I feel he has a better compliment of QB and WR's to make things happen. The only disappointing thing will be that inevitable pre-season game where he explodes before my draft day and I am going to have to pay like $30 if I want this guy (and at that price for a Rookie, no thanks).
Cardinals - Primary - Beanie Wells - Backup - Ryan Williams
Current auction value - $5 or less
This is a no-go. Timeshare central here. Cardinals want a talented RB to push Beanie. Both of these RBs currently have injuries. You're better off with sleepers since these guys will probably be on the WW after a couple weeks if someone actually bothers to pick them up. Beanie has never been the picture of RB health either. Too bad they didn't get rid of Beanie and keep Hightower to at least open up Helu but that's another story.
Chargers - Primary - Ryan Mathews - Backup - Curtis Brinkley
Current auction value - $40-50
I have a lot of difficulty with this guy. The main reason being I fell into that rookie hype of 2010 and learned my lesson on rookies. I will probably try to draft this guy at a low-to-mid $40's price tag because he has the makings to be a star. It is also nice that I can get his backup at a nice cheap $1 price tag. All the signs from camp plus the good season he had last year point to a breakout year for Ryan Mathews.
Chiefs - Primary - Jamaal Charles - Backup - Peyton Hillis
Current auction value - $30-$35
This is another one that I will stay away from. If anyone has any data to show me that people have come back, one year removed from a major ACL tear and excelled please enlighten me. I honestly feel safer drafting Hillis on the cheap late in the draft than Charles. I do think 2013 will be the year people get Jamaal Charles for a steal in the drafts though.
Colts - Primary - Donald Brown - Backup - Delone Carter
Current auction value - $5 or less
I think this is honestly a value pickup. Delone Carter probably won't do a whole lot and Brown might not either but you might be able to get him for as low as $1. He doesn't have much upside but their are worse picks such as Beanie Wells.
Cowboys - Primary - DeMarco Murray - Backup - Felix Jones
Current auction value - $30-$40
Look, last year, we saw some amazing things from DeMarco Murray who exploded on the scene after a Felix Jones injury. I was one idiot who happened to be in the boat of having Felix Jones but not having DeMarco Murray to back him up. Luckily, I traded Felix Jones (and Santana Moss) who were both spent most of the season injured but I didn't get crap for them. At this price I simply think this is too much. Lets have a look at DeMarco Murray and his injury history....
2007 - Dislocated Kneecap (Trust me, this s--- hurts, I've had it happen to me and the injury never heals also called a slipped patella)
2008 - Hamstring injury caused him to miss time
2009 - Broke records I believe
2010 - Was questionable from a knee injury for a lot of games
2011 - Broken Ankle after 160ish carries
DeMarco thinks himself as not injury prone and if he isn't injury prone then he just has had a string of bad luck. I think at his current price there are still better options in the draft. Matt Forte being one of those better options. If he slips by draft day and suddenly falls to the 50-60's in snake or $20-$30 in auction I will snatch him up but be sure to get Felix Jones as a $1 backup.
Dolphins - Primary - Reggie Bush - Backup - Daniel Thomas
Current auction value - $15
In my opinion this is going to be the boom or bust pick of the draft. He has had two full seasons exactly twice in 6 years. He had his first year of over 200 carries in 2011. He wants to be more of a work horse back and I personally think he is just trying to impress Kim.
Lets talk some serious stats now. Last year he saw an average of 17.2 touches per game, accumulating 1,382 all purpose yards and 7 TDs. If he saw a workload increase to 20 touches per game and held those stats 1700 all purpose yards and 8-9 TDs. In a fantasy wet dream that would include not only Kim Kardashian but a healthy 16 game Reggie Bush recieving 25 touches per game that extrapolates to 2100 Yards and 10-11 TDs.
I think if he does see extra work and gets towards that 20 touches per game and stays healthy 1400 all purpose yards and double digit touchdowns is an absolute ceiling.
Eagles - Primary - LeSean McCoy - Backup - ???
Current auction value - $60+
Not much needs to be said about McCoy that hasn't already been said and that isn't already known. He is one of the safest backs for those looking for a stud this year.
Falcons - Primary - Michael Turner - Backup - Jacquizz Rodgers
Current auction value - $15-$20
Last year when I saw him get chased down in the wide open field I knew that his time is over. At that price range you have better options available. If those don't pan out then go ahead and grab Turner but you are going to be disappointed if you need him to actually perform on a week to week basis. He was very up and down last season, finishing 7th among RBs, while have four 20+ point games and five
49ers - Primary - Frank Gore - Other Backs - Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James
Going auction value for Frank Gore - $19
I will personally be avoiding Frank Gore. He had an uninspiring 2011 season that was made to look good thanks to outlier games in weeks 4, 5, 6, and 8 which had 4 of his only 5 100+ yard games for the season. His season was very uninspiring and the addition of Thomas Jones and LaMichael James gives me further pause that Frank Gore will see a reduced workload to keep him fresh all season long for San Francisco's hopefuly repeat playoff appearance.
Bears - Primary - Matt Forte - Other Backs - Michael Bush
Going auction value for Matt Forte - $39
I love Forte this year. He signed a contract to stay with the Bears for a few more years and he has a relevant handcuff. What else is there not to like? The price tag? It will probably rise to the $39 level closer to draft day but right now in mocks I regularly see him going in the $30-$35 range especially depending on how much people spent on other RBs earlier. Last year he cracked the top 15 RBs while missing 1/3rd of the season with an MCL injury. Luckily those aren't too severe and he is already back to full form. If he stayed on his current track last year he would have ended up with close to 240 points (.5 ppr) which would have solidfied him as the #5 RB behind Arian Foster. If the unfortunate does occur and he goes down with an injury, Michael Bush showed us last year filling in for an injured Darren McFadden that he can still be a decent RB2 if he needs to take over the main duties.
Bengals - Benjarvus Green-Ellis/Bernard Scott
Going auction value - $13 for BJGE, $1 for Bernard Scott
I sense a joke about The Law Firm and the Bengals but in all honesty, the Vikings, Raiders, or Marshawn Lynch could use his legal services just as badly.
Bengals announced they plan for a commitee approach exclaiming the days of the bellcow are dead which is the last thing any fantasy football player wants to hear. I would be willing to personally spend less than $5 on BGE if I was sure he would see more than 50/50 split but we really won't know anything until the pre-season rolls around. Hopefully we see nothing of BGE in the pre-season games to plummet his value by draft day and we can get him and Bernard Scott as a stash depending on how deep your league is.
Bills - Primary - Fred Jackson, Backup - C.J. Spiller
Going auction value - $22 for Fred Jackson, $8 for C.J. Spiller
Initially I was high on Fred Jackson. He was amazing last seasons until a broken leg sidelined him and then C.J. Spiller took over and showed ample performance. In 2012 their is talk of a comitte approach. This same talk led to C.J. Spiller being overdrafted and Fred Jackson being undervalued last season as it was believed Spiller would overtake Jackson at some point. That comittee approach never happened but that doesn't mean it won't in 2012 as Spiller showed promise filling in for Jackson. At current prices you need to spend at least $30 for this runningback and his handcuff. For the same price you have a chance at getting Steven Jackson, Darren Sproles, Ahmad Bradshaw and possibly Matt Forte as well as their backups. Your best bet maybe to let someone else deal with Jackson and nab Spiller for a bench stash later in the draft and do a similar tactic for those who took Bush to spite McFadden owners last year. Make him pay an arm and a leg for the backup and laugh if he refuses before his starter goes down.
Broncos - Primary - Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee, Ronnie Hillman
Going auction value - Less than $1 each
Two of these guys aren't really that great, one of these guys isn't going to make the team, and one of these guys could be a breakout candidate with a $1 flyer pick at the end of the draft. Yes, Yes. I know it's a Peyton Manning offense now, but here are some past stats I will let you guys mull over as well as some point values for .5 PPR leagues.
Colts 1998 - Faulk - 324 Attempts, 1319 Yards, 6 TDs, 86 Receptions, 908 Yards, 4 TDs - 287 Points
Colts 1999 - Edgerrin James - 369 Attempts, 1553 Yards, 13 TDs, 62 Rec, 586 Yards, 4 TDs - 319 Points
Colts 2000 - Edgerrin James - 387 Attempts, 1709 Yards, 13 TDs. 63 Rec, 594 Yards. 5 TDs - 340 Points
Colts 2001 - Domonic Rhodes - 233 Attempts, 1104 Yards, 9 TDs. 34 Rec, 224 Yards, 0 TDs - 196 Points
Colts 2002 - Edgerrin James - 227 Attempts, 989 Yards, 2 TDs, 61 Rec, 354 Yards, 11 TDs - 209 Points
Colts 2003 - Edgerrin James - 310 Attempts, 1259 Yards, 11 TDs, 51 Rec, 292 Yards, 0 TDs - 236 Points
Colts 2004 - Edgerrin James - 334 Attempts, 1548 Yards, 9 TDs, 51 Rec, 483 Yards, 0 TDs - 266 Points
Colts 2005 - Edgerrin James - 360 Attempts, 1506 Yards, 13 TDs, 44 Rec, 337 Yards, 1 TD - 277 Points
Colts 2006 - Joseph Addai - 226 Attempts, 1081 Yards, 7 TDs, 40 Rec, 325 Yards, 1 TD - 195 Points
Colts 2007 - Joseph Addai - 261 Attempts, 1072 Yards, 12 TDs, 41 Rec, 364 Yards, 3 TDs - 235 Points
Joseph Addai had a 12-game season in 2008...
Colts 2008 - Addai/Dhominic Rhodes - 307 Attempts, 1082 Yards, 11 TDs, 70 Rec, 508 Yards, 5 TDs - 263 Points
Colts 2009 - Joseph Addai - 219 Attempts, 828 Yards, 10 TDs, 51 Rec, 336 Yards, 3 TDs - 202 Points
Joseph Addai had another short season in 2010...
Colts 2010 - Addai/Donald Brown - 245 Attempts, 992 Yards, 6 TDs, 39 Rec, 329 Yards, 0 TDs - 176 Points
Compared to last year, those numbers are good enough to end up in the Top 15 running backs EVERY YEAR of Mannings career.
Browns - Primary - Trent Richardson - Backup - Brandon Jackson
Going auction value - $20-$25
Really I don't have much to say on him. I want to see this guy play in the preseason. The main knock against him besides the knee scope after the combine is that he is a rookie and it is a different ballgame than College ball. I know, I just pumped up a rookie prospect in the previous team I discussed but that is a Peyton Manning team who has shown consistent useage of his runningbacks through an entire 13-year career. Trent Richardson is playing on a Brandon Weedon offense with Greg Little and Mohammod Massaquoaklg as the primary WRs. Will they be playing catchup all season and rely more on the passing game or will they attempt to control the ball and have Trent constantly trying to move the chains play after play? It is a tough call that cannot be known for sure until pre-season but this pick comes with a big rookie risk on a rookie team.
Bucaneers - Primary - Doug Martin - Backup/GLB - LeGarrette Blount
Current auction value - $10 or less
I'm glad I never bought into the Blount hype of last year because it was way overrated. With that said, he was drafted to replace Blount and the Buc's have said they would like to transition to a more run heavy offense. For his current price, I like him a lot more than Trent Richardson and I feel he has a better compliment of QB and WR's to make things happen. The only disappointing thing will be that inevitable pre-season game where he explodes before my draft day and I am going to have to pay like $30 if I want this guy (and at that price for a Rookie, no thanks).
Cardinals - Primary - Beanie Wells - Backup - Ryan Williams
Current auction value - $5 or less
This is a no-go. Timeshare central here. Cardinals want a talented RB to push Beanie. Both of these RBs currently have injuries. You're better off with sleepers since these guys will probably be on the WW after a couple weeks if someone actually bothers to pick them up. Beanie has never been the picture of RB health either. Too bad they didn't get rid of Beanie and keep Hightower to at least open up Helu but that's another story.
Chargers - Primary - Ryan Mathews - Backup - Curtis Brinkley
Current auction value - $40-50
I have a lot of difficulty with this guy. The main reason being I fell into that rookie hype of 2010 and learned my lesson on rookies. I will probably try to draft this guy at a low-to-mid $40's price tag because he has the makings to be a star. It is also nice that I can get his backup at a nice cheap $1 price tag. All the signs from camp plus the good season he had last year point to a breakout year for Ryan Mathews.
Chiefs - Primary - Jamaal Charles - Backup - Peyton Hillis
Current auction value - $30-$35
This is another one that I will stay away from. If anyone has any data to show me that people have come back, one year removed from a major ACL tear and excelled please enlighten me. I honestly feel safer drafting Hillis on the cheap late in the draft than Charles. I do think 2013 will be the year people get Jamaal Charles for a steal in the drafts though.
Colts - Primary - Donald Brown - Backup - Delone Carter
Current auction value - $5 or less
I think this is honestly a value pickup. Delone Carter probably won't do a whole lot and Brown might not either but you might be able to get him for as low as $1. He doesn't have much upside but their are worse picks such as Beanie Wells.
Cowboys - Primary - DeMarco Murray - Backup - Felix Jones
Current auction value - $30-$40
Look, last year, we saw some amazing things from DeMarco Murray who exploded on the scene after a Felix Jones injury. I was one idiot who happened to be in the boat of having Felix Jones but not having DeMarco Murray to back him up. Luckily, I traded Felix Jones (and Santana Moss) who were both spent most of the season injured but I didn't get crap for them. At this price I simply think this is too much. Lets have a look at DeMarco Murray and his injury history....
2007 - Dislocated Kneecap (Trust me, this s--- hurts, I've had it happen to me and the injury never heals also called a slipped patella)
2008 - Hamstring injury caused him to miss time
2009 - Broke records I believe
2010 - Was questionable from a knee injury for a lot of games
2011 - Broken Ankle after 160ish carries
DeMarco thinks himself as not injury prone and if he isn't injury prone then he just has had a string of bad luck. I think at his current price there are still better options in the draft. Matt Forte being one of those better options. If he slips by draft day and suddenly falls to the 50-60's in snake or $20-$30 in auction I will snatch him up but be sure to get Felix Jones as a $1 backup.
Dolphins - Primary - Reggie Bush - Backup - Daniel Thomas
Current auction value - $15
In my opinion this is going to be the boom or bust pick of the draft. He has had two full seasons exactly twice in 6 years. He had his first year of over 200 carries in 2011. He wants to be more of a work horse back and I personally think he is just trying to impress Kim.
Lets talk some serious stats now. Last year he saw an average of 17.2 touches per game, accumulating 1,382 all purpose yards and 7 TDs. If he saw a workload increase to 20 touches per game and held those stats 1700 all purpose yards and 8-9 TDs. In a fantasy wet dream that would include not only Kim Kardashian but a healthy 16 game Reggie Bush recieving 25 touches per game that extrapolates to 2100 Yards and 10-11 TDs.
I think if he does see extra work and gets towards that 20 touches per game and stays healthy 1400 all purpose yards and double digit touchdowns is an absolute ceiling.
Eagles - Primary - LeSean McCoy - Backup - ???
Current auction value - $60+
Not much needs to be said about McCoy that hasn't already been said and that isn't already known. He is one of the safest backs for those looking for a stud this year.
Falcons - Primary - Michael Turner - Backup - Jacquizz Rodgers
Current auction value - $15-$20
Last year when I saw him get chased down in the wide open field I knew that his time is over. At that price range you have better options available. If those don't pan out then go ahead and grab Turner but you are going to be disappointed if you need him to actually perform on a week to week basis. He was very up and down last season, finishing 7th among RBs, while have four 20+ point games and five
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again the thoughts expressed above are not mine, they are holben's from rotoworld. he does 12-teamers but I'd apply a lot of his rationale to standard 10-teamers, good read for anyone who has been out of the football loop during the off-season
the important thing when approaching a draft is objectivity. I'm a giants fan but when it comes to fantasy football I have no favorites, I have preferences based simply on upside and fantasy value.
i'm not going out of my way to get my favorite players to appease the Giants fan/football groupie in me (yeah I like a lot of different players from a lot of different teams, doesn't mean any of them are going to end up on my roster come draft day).
the important thing when approaching a draft is objectivity. I'm a giants fan but when it comes to fantasy football I have no favorites, I have preferences based simply on upside and fantasy value.
i'm not going out of my way to get my favorite players to appease the Giants fan/football groupie in me (yeah I like a lot of different players from a lot of different teams, doesn't mean any of them are going to end up on my roster come draft day).
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Better not jinx it.
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YES!!! IDP >>>>>> regular leagues
I'm trying to recruit people over to the IDP side of fantasy football. It adds a dimension to the game that's just as enjoyable as managing an offense.
Anyone wants to check out Individual Defensive Player leagues, read:
[h1]IDP Primer (Intro to IDP)[/h1]03/30/2010 9:14 PM - Mike Woellert
LB Patrick Willis
Leagues that include Individual Defensive Players (IDP) are becoming more and more popular. When drafting only offensive players and a D/ST, you’re only getting half of the game. Sure, it’s fun to see Chris Johnson go for a 75-yard touchdown but that’s it and his team kicks the ball off. Also, IDP over D/ST eliminates a lot of the luck factor. How many of us have been ahead in a matchup only find themselves losing because a defense had a cake matchup and pitched a shutout and capitalized on some big plays and returned a few INTs for TDs because the other team was trying to chuck the ball to score some garbage time points? In IDP, your defensive players are just like your offensive players only they are responsible for tackles and, hopefully, being involved on some of the big players. This article will go over the ins and outs of IDP and give you a general outline of what’s involved and the positions that you’ll draft. I got involved in IDP back in 2007 and haven’t looked back since and now, I’m a full-fledged IDP addict. Here are some general guidelines that I like to follow (and aren’t steadfast rules, by any stretch of the imagination):
Scoring
Like all fantasy football leagues, you need to pay attention to the scoring format and it’s especially important in IDP leagues. In a fantasy football PPR league, you wouldn’t draft an RB like, Willie Parker, because he doesn’t catch as many passes but, it makes a guy like Chester Taylor valuable. Same goes for IDP. Here are some basic scoring breakdowns:
Tackles: 2pt per solo/1 per assist: These are considered more tackle heavy and rewards the big tackle guys in the NFL. Just take a look at last year’s tackle stats and you’ll see guys like Patrick Willis, London Flecther, Barrett Ruud (just to name a few) and they contribute in both solos and assists. Now, if you’re in a league that only rewards 1pt per solo/.5 pt per assist, it doesn’t necessarily bring those player’s values down but, it rewards those guys that might contribute more big plays and puts them on a level playing field. Big plays are nice, but that can’t be counted on so you’ll want to get as many guys as you can that contribute tackles and draft in some of the big play guys for balance. More on the types of players that contribute later on.
Sacks: 4pts per solo/2 per assist (2pts per solo/1 per assist): There’s not really a standard scoring system for IDP, so these points can range. The sacks are where your defensive linemen become valuable as that’s mostly their bread and butter and where they earn their money. Among the top 10 in sacks, 6 were defensive linemen, while another you could say was a defensive end/linebacker hybrid.
Pass Defensed/Forced Fumble/Fumble Recovery/Interception/Safeties: These are the big plays that score pretty big but can’t be counted on a weekly basis. Passes defensed are typically going to get you a .5pt and the fumbles can range between 2 and 4 pts. Interceptions will typically get you 2-4 pts, as well and then you’ve got the pick 6 (which is 6). Safeties can range between 2-3 pts, also. Typically, if you look at last year’s stats, temper expectations for projections and knock those numbers down a few.
Positions
Defensive End/Defensive Tackle: IMO, the DL spot is one of the more volatile positions. One week, your DL can get a couple of sacks and return a fumble for a TD and the next, they get shutdown. It used to be that you could wait on an end but, it’s getting to the point where you’d like to get at least one elite defensive end on your team. If you do miss out, there are usually plenty of second tier ends that can provide solid numbers and contribute to your team. Up until his injury, Antwan Odom was one of those guys. Andre Carter was another guy that was either drafted really late or was a waiver wire addition. The DE position is where you’re going to get your sacks and the elite guys like Jared Allen and Trent Cole for your squad. The defensive tackle, once an afterthought, has provided solid numbers especially for tackles. However, unless your league requires a DT spot, they are usually an afterthought and they can be circulated through on the wire. In my IDP league this past season, 6 of the top 30, were at the DT spot. They are usually okay for bye-week or injury fillers if you get one that’s on a hot streak.
Linebacker: The Linebacker position is the most important position since this where the most tackle opportunities are had. Not only that, but you should also pay attention to the designation and scheme the backer plays in. The middle linebacker (MLB or MIKE) are the captains and generally are involved in the most plays. The MIKE typically plays in a 4-3 scheme but, those that are designated the MIKE in 3-4 schemes are, generally, the more desirable (see Patrick Willis). The weakside linebacker (WLB or WILL), generally, is next most desirable since they are, not only involved in tackle opportunities, but can register sacks since they are facing the weakside of the defense. They are usually not seeing an extra blocker or tight end and in some cases, the defenses forces the flow of the play to the weak-side. The strong-side linebacker (SLB or SAM) is least desirable since they facing an extra blocker, usually a tight end. But, there are exceptions to every rule (see Brian Cushing of the Houston Texans). Again, this is where you’ll be getting the majority of your production and numbers from. Of the linebackers that finished in the top 20 in tackles, 12 of the top 20 were MLBs in a 4-3 and the other 6 were ILBs in a 3-4 scheme, playing at the MIKE in their respective schemes. The DE/LB hybrid are also becoming relevant so it’s important to keep an eye on the position designation. Aaron Kampman was a DE in 2008 but was moved to OLB in 2009 and didn’t generate the kind of numbers that were hoped for. Whereas, Clay Matthews played at the same position and registered 10 sacks. Depending on the scoring system (as noted above), guys like Lamar Woodley, DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison and rookie, Brian Orapko can be very valuable. More than likely, you’ll be looking at tackles (solo and total tackles) when doing your projections and rankings.
Defensive Backs: The defensive back position is just as volatile as defensive end. From year to year, it seems the top 10 changes from year to year and the #1 position seems to emerge from the wire (or at least later on in the draft). Again, tackles are king here and the position to concentrate on is the safety, particularly, the strong safety. Of the top 10 backs that finished in tackles, 7 were from the SS spot. Tyvon Branch took over for Gibril Wilson at the SS spot in Oakland, and had the same type of production as Wilson, providing 98 solos and 124 total tackles. Typically, the CBs are going to be ignored at the early going since the safeties are usually the higher scorers, because of their tackle numbers and involvement in more of the defense. There are a few corners that are productive and worth owning, Charles Woodson, Richard Marshall, Antoine Winfied and Cedric Griffin to name a few. Guys like Darrelle Revis get name recognition, but only because they are shut-down corners and do not need a lot of balls thrown their way. This is the one position you can generally wait on due to volatility in production. I like to target the safeties first, especially if your league has no specific S/CB position requirement.
When to Draft IDPs
This is subject to debate and scoring system and how many players to start and which positions are being used. If you’re just starting a league, it’s best to dip your toes by allowing maybe 3-4 IDPs at any position (so you could have 3 players at LB, etc.). Once a league has been established and grows, you can increase IDPs and incorporate multiple position designations. I actually participate in a 16-team all IDP league. Yes, all IDP and no offense players. However, in most leagues, they incorporate both offensive and defensive players. The key is when to draft the IDPs. First rule of thumb, IMO, is to not draft one too early. I am sure in every league, there’ll be the guy that grabs Patrick Willis in the 4th or 5th round. I usually wait to draft my IDPs until I have drafted all of my offensive players and a few backups for depth and then start building my squad. Even if you miss out on the top elite guys in the first rounds, there’s usually plenty of depth at the positions to build a solid IDP squad and, as long as you keep an eye on the wire, you’ll be able to pluck out the diamonds in the rough (David Hawthorne is one name that comes to mind).
For any IDP questions, please feel free to leave comments or visit the IDP thread in the forums. I’ll be posting my early rankings within the next week or two to get the palette ready for some savory IDP goodness.
Like all fantasy football leagues, you need to pay attention to the scoring format and it’s especially important in IDP leagues. In a fantasy football PPR league, you wouldn’t draft an RB like, Willie Parker, because he doesn’t catch as many passes but, it makes a guy like Chester Taylor valuable. Same goes for IDP. Here are some basic scoring breakdowns:
Tackles: 2pt per solo/1 per assist: These are considered more tackle heavy and rewards the big tackle guys in the NFL. Just take a look at last year’s tackle stats and you’ll see guys like Patrick Willis, London Flecther, Barrett Ruud (just to name a few) and they contribute in both solos and assists. Now, if you’re in a league that only rewards 1pt per solo/.5 pt per assist, it doesn’t necessarily bring those player’s values down but, it rewards those guys that might contribute more big plays and puts them on a level playing field. Big plays are nice, but that can’t be counted on so you’ll want to get as many guys as you can that contribute tackles and draft in some of the big play guys for balance. More on the types of players that contribute later on.
Sacks: 4pts per solo/2 per assist (2pts per solo/1 per assist): There’s not really a standard scoring system for IDP, so these points can range. The sacks are where your defensive linemen become valuable as that’s mostly their bread and butter and where they earn their money. Among the top 10 in sacks, 6 were defensive linemen, while another you could say was a defensive end/linebacker hybrid.
Pass Defensed/Forced Fumble/Fumble Recovery/Interception/Safeties: These are the big plays that score pretty big but can’t be counted on a weekly basis. Passes defensed are typically going to get you a .5pt and the fumbles can range between 2 and 4 pts. Interceptions will typically get you 2-4 pts, as well and then you’ve got the pick 6 (which is 6). Safeties can range between 2-3 pts, also. Typically, if you look at last year’s stats, temper expectations for projections and knock those numbers down a few.
Positions
Defensive End/Defensive Tackle: IMO, the DL spot is one of the more volatile positions. One week, your DL can get a couple of sacks and return a fumble for a TD and the next, they get shutdown. It used to be that you could wait on an end but, it’s getting to the point where you’d like to get at least one elite defensive end on your team. If you do miss out, there are usually plenty of second tier ends that can provide solid numbers and contribute to your team. Up until his injury, Antwan Odom was one of those guys. Andre Carter was another guy that was either drafted really late or was a waiver wire addition. The DE position is where you’re going to get your sacks and the elite guys like Jared Allen and Trent Cole for your squad. The defensive tackle, once an afterthought, has provided solid numbers especially for tackles. However, unless your league requires a DT spot, they are usually an afterthought and they can be circulated through on the wire. In my IDP league this past season, 6 of the top 30, were at the DT spot. They are usually okay for bye-week or injury fillers if you get one that’s on a hot streak.
Linebacker: The Linebacker position is the most important position since this where the most tackle opportunities are had. Not only that, but you should also pay attention to the designation and scheme the backer plays in. The middle linebacker (MLB or MIKE) are the captains and generally are involved in the most plays. The MIKE typically plays in a 4-3 scheme but, those that are designated the MIKE in 3-4 schemes are, generally, the more desirable (see Patrick Willis). The weakside linebacker (WLB or WILL), generally, is next most desirable since they are, not only involved in tackle opportunities, but can register sacks since they are facing the weakside of the defense. They are usually not seeing an extra blocker or tight end and in some cases, the defenses forces the flow of the play to the weak-side. The strong-side linebacker (SLB or SAM) is least desirable since they facing an extra blocker, usually a tight end. But, there are exceptions to every rule (see Brian Cushing of the Houston Texans). Again, this is where you’ll be getting the majority of your production and numbers from. Of the linebackers that finished in the top 20 in tackles, 12 of the top 20 were MLBs in a 4-3 and the other 6 were ILBs in a 3-4 scheme, playing at the MIKE in their respective schemes. The DE/LB hybrid are also becoming relevant so it’s important to keep an eye on the position designation. Aaron Kampman was a DE in 2008 but was moved to OLB in 2009 and didn’t generate the kind of numbers that were hoped for. Whereas, Clay Matthews played at the same position and registered 10 sacks. Depending on the scoring system (as noted above), guys like Lamar Woodley, DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison and rookie, Brian Orapko can be very valuable. More than likely, you’ll be looking at tackles (solo and total tackles) when doing your projections and rankings.
Defensive Backs: The defensive back position is just as volatile as defensive end. From year to year, it seems the top 10 changes from year to year and the #1 position seems to emerge from the wire (or at least later on in the draft). Again, tackles are king here and the position to concentrate on is the safety, particularly, the strong safety. Of the top 10 backs that finished in tackles, 7 were from the SS spot. Tyvon Branch took over for Gibril Wilson at the SS spot in Oakland, and had the same type of production as Wilson, providing 98 solos and 124 total tackles. Typically, the CBs are going to be ignored at the early going since the safeties are usually the higher scorers, because of their tackle numbers and involvement in more of the defense. There are a few corners that are productive and worth owning, Charles Woodson, Richard Marshall, Antoine Winfied and Cedric Griffin to name a few. Guys like Darrelle Revis get name recognition, but only because they are shut-down corners and do not need a lot of balls thrown their way. This is the one position you can generally wait on due to volatility in production. I like to target the safeties first, especially if your league has no specific S/CB position requirement.
When to Draft IDPs
This is subject to debate and scoring system and how many players to start and which positions are being used. If you’re just starting a league, it’s best to dip your toes by allowing maybe 3-4 IDPs at any position (so you could have 3 players at LB, etc.). Once a league has been established and grows, you can increase IDPs and incorporate multiple position designations. I actually participate in a 16-team all IDP league. Yes, all IDP and no offense players. However, in most leagues, they incorporate both offensive and defensive players. The key is when to draft the IDPs. First rule of thumb, IMO, is to not draft one too early. I am sure in every league, there’ll be the guy that grabs Patrick Willis in the 4th or 5th round. I usually wait to draft my IDPs until I have drafted all of my offensive players and a few backups for depth and then start building my squad. Even if you miss out on the top elite guys in the first rounds, there’s usually plenty of depth at the positions to build a solid IDP squad and, as long as you keep an eye on the wire, you’ll be able to pluck out the diamonds in the rough (David Hawthorne is one name that comes to mind).
For any IDP questions, please feel free to leave comments or visit the IDP thread in the forums. I’ll be posting my early rankings within the next week or two to get the palette ready for some savory IDP goodness.
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Edit: sorry about that...
Just finished a mock. Thoughts?
Just finished a mock. Thoughts?
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Edit: sorry about that...
Just finished a mock. Thoughts?
10 or 12 teamer???
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- Jun 16, 2008
IS THE ELITE CLUB WELCOMING A FEW NEW MEMBERS?
Christopher Harris VS. Tim Hasselbeck
A fantasy guru matches wits with a former NFL QB -- and enlightenment ensues.
CH: Last year, eight of the top 10 fantasy points producers were QBs. How early can you take a quarterback, given the volatility of the other positions?
TH: With the way the NFL rules are now set up, it's not unusual for someone to complete close to 70 percent of his passes and throw 40 times a game. And then you have a guy like Cam Newton, who might be the best goal-line running back in the NFL.
CH: So how many should go in the first round?
TH: Two, maybe three.
CH: I'd go with three. Rodgers, then Brady, then Brees.
TH: What about Cam? His rushing touchdowns are amazing. Until someone says, "This is going away," he could be more valuable than Brady and possibly Brees. You might get 40 touchdowns from Cam, with 15 coming from rushes. That's more valuable.
CH: So Cam is the big question. No quarterback who has run for more than eight touchdowns in a season has ever run for eight or more the next season.
TH: Yeah, but those quarterbacks didn't have the designed runs like Cam. Carolina's best play when it gets to the goal line is a run-pass option.
CH: I'm not too worried about Sean Payton's absence. Are you?
TH: It bothers me. Last year, Brees wanted those records and Payton wanted those records as much as anybody. They're throwing the ball when they have no business throwing. Now it's a different situation.
CH: What about Peyton Manning?
TH: I just think there are so many guys who are good with less risk. I'd rather just take Philip Rivers or Tony Romo.
CH: If you don't get Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Newton or Stafford, I think you should just wait.
KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE: DON'T DRAFT MICHAEL VICK EARLY
Vick was third in the NFL last season in QB rushing yards (behind Cam Newton and Tim Tebow) while playing just 13 games. But if you prorate his points over 16 games, he's still not a top-five QB. That's because Vick is not close to the 600-pass-attempt threshold that separates elite QBs from the rest. (Exceptions to the rule: Newton, whose rushing TDs are planned plays, and Aaron Rodgers, whose 502 attempts were goosed by an unreal 9.25 yap.)
TURF WARS
Christopher Harris breaks down this season's top QB battles.
Mark Sanchez vs. Tim Tebow (Jets): This is not what Sanchez needed. He'll start Week 1, but if the Jets get off to a slow start, fans and the inevitable media maelstrom will beg for Tebow Time. And for fantasy, Tebow would be the more attractive starter because of his potential for rushing scores and yards.
Matt Flynn vs. Tarvaris Jackson (Seahawks): Despite learning the QB art from Aaron Rodgers, Flynn is still almost totally untested. Meanwhile, Jackson has the arm strength and the athleticism advantage in this battle. But Flynn signed for $10 million guaranteed this winter, which makes him the favorite.
Matt Hasselbeck vs. Jake Locker (Titans): Hasselbeck had a great start to 2011, then faded in October. Locker has major accuracy questions. The winner will have fantasy weapons in hand, but this true training camp battle really is too close to call.
Blaine Gabbert vs. Chad Henne (Jaguars): Yuck. Gabbert needs a huge second-year leap to maximize Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson. He'll still start, if only because Henne has yet to throw more TDs than INTs in any of his four seasons.
Kevin Kolb vs. John Skelton (Cardinals): Arizona needs to prove its O-line is fixed before you think about investing here.
INJURIES ATWITTER
Stephania Bell's QB intel in 140 characters or fewer.
Peyton Manning's neck fusion is solid. If his arm is as strong as his Broncos teammates say, there will be a new sheriff in the AFC West.
Matt Schaub's foot broke in Week 10 under the weight of Albert Haynesworth. Lisfranc surgery, rehab and he's ready to roll in Houston.
After a high ankle sprain in October, Sam Bradford, and the Rams, were never right. He'll be fine this year if he can avoid the sacks.
Last year, Matt Cassel got a broken right hand and Kansas City got a busted season. But he's thrown the ball well in OTAs and is good to go.
WHERE HAVE ALL THE GREAT RUSHERS GONE?
Christopher Harris VS. Tim Hasselbeck
CH: I think this might be the worst year ever for fantasy running backs. There are so few guys you can trust.
TH: I'd trust Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice. Those are the big three. But I'd also believe in MJD and Matt Forte. Forte is as complete a back as there is in the NFL. There's separation after the first three and then again after the top five.
CH: Forte is not a good goal-line back. I'd rather have Ryan Mathews.
TH: Don't forget that Mike Tice is calling plays now. That will be a very good thing for Forte. He will run more.
CH: Do you see Chris Johnson bouncing back? People who had him last season were burned.
TH: I can't imagine it can possibly be as bad as it was last year, when he was talked about as the No. 1 overall pick. He's healthy and has been part of the offseason program. Plus, he's bruised by the embarrassment of how bad last season went. Most of all, he plays for a team that wants to run the ball.
CH: How good is Trent Richardson? Is he the next Adrian Peterson?
TH: No. He's a really good player who will touch the ball a lot, but you have to look at that team, where they are up front, what they are defensively and the other defenses in that division. When are they going to be winning and running the ball? They'll be running for three quarters, not four.
CH: What should people do about Jamaal Charles and Peterson, two stars with torn ACLs? I don't think they should be grouped together, because their injuries came at different times.
TH: I'm skeptical of these guys. Delay your draft any way possible. Have a family wedding. Get more information.
KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE: DRAFT TRENT RICHARDSON
Afraid to pick the Crimson Tide wunderkind because the Browns were next to last in 2011 with just 3.7 ypc? Don't be. These four running backs had impressive fantasy numbers last season behind terrible blocking.
* Good blocking rate (GBR): The percentage of running plays in which the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt the rush attempt.
TURF WARS
Christopher Harris breaks down this season's top RB battles.
Fred Jackson vs. C.J. Spiller (Bills): It's tough to imagine Spiller seeing only 3.1 offensive touches per game this year, as he did in 2011 before Jackson got hurt. Jackson could wind up being severely overdrafted in fantasy leagues as a result.
Roy Helu vs. Tim Hightower (********): Don't be shocked if Hightower winds up starting games for flaky Mike Shanahan. Helu is another player who will be overdrafted this summer.
Jahvid Best vs. Kevin Smith vs. Mikel Leshoure (Lions): Detroit will baby the oft-injured Best, which means Smith and Leshoure (once his suspension ends after Week 2) will create a frustrating rotation.
Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams (Panthers): Another year, another fantasy mess in Carolina. But Cam Newton gets so many rushing TDs, there's no urgency to start either Stewart or Williams.
Stevan Ridley vs. Shane Vereen (Patriots): The Pats mess with fantasy owners. Ridley is the favorite for goal-line work, but you never know how New England will use these guys from week to week.
Doug Martin vs. LeGarrette Blount (Buccaneers): Blount fizzled as a starter in 2011, but the Bucs won't give the rookie Martin a pure starting role either. Expect a split of early-down work in Tampa.
INJURIES ATWITTER
Stephania Bell's RB intel in 140 characters or fewer.
Vikings' Adrian Peterson tore left ACL/MCL in Week 16. Naysayers: No way he starts 2012 on time. AP: I'll be back. Truth: No way to know.
Attention RBs: If you're going to tear your ACL, do it early. Jamaal Charles had a year of recovery and plans to play Week 1 for the Chiefs.
When is a minor foot sprain major? When you're Raider Darren McFadden and a two-week absence becomes two months. Healthy, yes, but a risk.
Lions' Jahvid Best missed 10 games in 2011 due to a concussion, not his first. He says he's recovered, but only in-game test will tell.
MEGATRON AND EVERYBODY ELSE
Christopher Harris VS. Tim Hasselbeck
CH: So it's Calvin Johnson and a bunch of guys.
TH: We have to put Larry Fitzgerald up there too.
CH: True, but only if he had Matthew Stafford throwing to him.
TH: That will sort itself out. Fitzgerald had 80 catches with terrible QB play by John Skelton and Kevin Kolb. One of these guys has to play better.
CH: That's my concern. He won't repeat that with the same bad quarterbacks.
TH: I think the situation will improve, and then he'll be even better.
CH: Maybe, but Johnson and Fitzgerald are definitely the top two. There are great receivers after them, but there isn't much difference. Why reach?
TH: I think you may see almost half of the first 50 picks be receivers.
CH: I agree there will be a lot taken in the top 50 but not so many in the top 20. You don't need to take a guy like Greg Jennings that early.
TH: You're going to be playing three of them, since most likely you'll be flexing a receiver.
CH: Two guys I'm worried about are Victor Cruz and Jordy Nelson. I'm just not sure if those big plays are repeatable.
TH: I'm not worried. I just think that's who Victor Cruz is, a big-play guy. And Aaron Rodgers always gave Nelson that signal to go when he saw press coverage. Nelson never lost. It was crazy. And he'll play more with Driver getting less time.
CH: Do you have any sleeper receivers? It happens every year.
TH: Denarius Moore is a guy I'm excited about. He's so fast. And he can track the ball. There is so much upside.
CH: I love Titus Young opposite Johnson in Detroit. I can see him being a top-15 fantasy receiver.
KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE: DON'T SHOOT FOR TARGETS
Bulk chances may be the most important stat for picking running backs and QBs. But when it comes to wide receivers, target totals often deceive. Don't believe us? In each of the following cases, the players with the fewer targets scored more fantasy points last season.
TURF WARS
Christopher Harris breaks down this season's top WR battles.
Michael Crabtree vs. Mario Manningham vs. Randy Moss (49ers): Crabtree's familiarity makes him the safest, but who drafts for safe? Manningham and Moss are deep threats for a QB who doesn't throw deep. Don't bother drafting anyone out of this troika.
Robert Meachem vs. Malcom Floyd (Chargers): With Vincent Jackson in Tampa, Philip Rivers needs a new No. 1 WR. Both Meachem and Floyd offer a size-speed package. Meachem has missed only two games in four years; Floyd has played a complete slate only once in seven seasons. I'd take Meachem.
Titus Young vs. Nate Burleson (Lions): Detroit uses three-receiver sets a ton, so this fight is over targets. Last year, Burleson had 110 looks, Young 84. Expect those numbers to flip-flop. Go with Young.
Rueben Randle vs. Jerrel Jernigan vs. Ramses Barden vs. Domenik Hixon (Giants): Victor Cruz proved the Giants' No. 3 job can become a launching pad for fantasy value. Randle, a rookie with 4.5 speed, has a great shot to step in for Manningham.
Brian Quick vs. Chris Givens vs. Danario Alexander vs. Steve Smith vs. Greg Salas vs. Danny Amendola (Rams): Sam Bradford has to produce a fantasy-relevant receiver eventually, doesn't he? Quick, a rookie from App State, has big-play potential and should be the best fantasy draftee, but Amendola will amass more catches.
INJURIES ATWITTER
Stephania Bell's WR intel in 140 characters or fewer.
Houston's Andre Johnson was hamstrung for nearly 3 months in 2011. Now an offseason knee scope. Still great. But at 31, injuries adding up.
Hakeem Nicks began OTAs for the Giants with sharp routes. His reward? A foot fracture and surgery. Training camp? Maybe. Week 1? Expected.
After Kenny Britt's ACL surgery, swelling in each knee required scopes. The Titans are scaling back expectations. No lock for Week 1.
Stevie Johnson is looking good in Buffalo. A nagging groin injury required surgery in the spring, but he was back by minicamp.
WHEN DO THE TIGHT ENDS GO?
Christopher Harris VS. Tim Hasselbeck
CH: Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham had the two greatest tight end seasons ever, for fantasy or otherwise. But I don't think they should be first-round draft picks.
TH: They're off the chart. These guys have a unique skill set. They are both so big and still so athletic and strong. Patriots trainers would have to cut off Gronk's leg to keep him from playing. The matchups they create have become a huge problem that opposing coaches haven't figured out how to deal with. How do you stop Jimmy Graham when the Saints isolate him? You can't send a linebacker. You can't send a safety; he's too athletic. You can't do it with a corner because he's too strong and long.
CH: Yeah, but do you think they're first-round picks?
TH: If you're sitting there and the quarterback you like and the receiver you like and the running back you like are all gone, then going for Jimmy Graham is not horrible.
CH: I generally don't take a backup tight end no matter what. Free agent tight ends will be okay if Tony Gonzalez gets hurt.
TH: This idea about flexing tight ends, it sounds great. But if you take the 40th receiver, he'll probably get 100 points. The 10th fantasy tight end is going to have 100 fantasy points.
CH: Exactly, so the top 15 TEs aren't available, that's okay. No. 16 is Kellen Winslow. No. 17 is Martellus Bennett. If you get one of the top 12, you're not carrying another one. No question about it.
TH: Yeah, but people now will start to own two.
CH: With Gronkowski and Graham being so much better than the baseline tight end, maybe we can justify second or third round. But if you don't get one of those two guys, wait. They're all the same.
TH: Yeah, if you have Jermichael Finley or Vernon Davis, who cares?
KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE: GRONK HAS DEEP ISSUES
Think twice before passing up a top-five wideout for Gronk. Last year, the lockout toned down blitz packages, but teams now have a full summer to perfect schemes to exploit one hole in Gronkowski's game. While he was the NFL's top TE on short routes, he stumbled the farther he went downfield.
TURF WARS
Christopher Harris breaks down this season's top TE battles.
Jacob Tamme vs. Joel Dreessen (Broncos): Because Tamme is familiar with Peyton Manning from their Colts days, he figures to be the favorite target here. But Denver could use many two-TE sets, and remember Dreessen previously made a living vulturing value from Owen Daniels in Houston.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Aaron Hernandez (Patriots): Obviously, Gronkowski turned in the greatest fantasy season a tight end ever had last year, but Hernandez ain't chopped liver. If Gronk's ankle injury lingers, Hernandez gets even more looks in the red zone.
Dallas Clark vs. Luke Stocker (Buccaneers): If Clark has anything left in his tank, he'll be the pass catcher in the Tampa offense while Stocker focuses more on blocking and developing as a receiver. I'm not convinced that Clark is ready to leap back to fantasy relevance.
Zach Miller vs. Kellen Winslow (Seahawks): Miller didn't do much in 2011 when he was the unquestioned starter. Now K2 is on the depth chart too? Yikes.
Ed Dickson vs. Dennis Pitta (Ravens): Dickson's overall numbers from 2011 look better than Pitta's. But late in the season and especially in the playoffs, Pitta began to nose ahead. He has an edge in an annoying split on a team that will go two-TE a bunch.
INJURIES ATWITTER
Stephania Bell's TE intel in 140 characters or fewer.
The Gronk was not himself in the Super Bowl thanks to a high ankle sprain. Then came surgery, rehab and a nice big contract. He'll be back.
A torn plantar fascia slowed Antonio Gates over last two years as a Charger. Healthy now, he's had his best minicamp ever, says Norv Turner.
Like teammate Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki tore his ACL last season. Poor Chiefs. Also like Charles, Moeaki will be ready Week 1. Go Chiefs.
Ankle and rib injuries (and Jason Witten) limited play for Martellus Bennett in Big D. If he sheds pounds, he'll see time with NYG.
Christopher Harris VS. Tim Hasselbeck
A fantasy guru matches wits with a former NFL QB -- and enlightenment ensues.
CH: Last year, eight of the top 10 fantasy points producers were QBs. How early can you take a quarterback, given the volatility of the other positions?
TH: With the way the NFL rules are now set up, it's not unusual for someone to complete close to 70 percent of his passes and throw 40 times a game. And then you have a guy like Cam Newton, who might be the best goal-line running back in the NFL.
CH: So how many should go in the first round?
TH: Two, maybe three.
CH: I'd go with three. Rodgers, then Brady, then Brees.
TH: What about Cam? His rushing touchdowns are amazing. Until someone says, "This is going away," he could be more valuable than Brady and possibly Brees. You might get 40 touchdowns from Cam, with 15 coming from rushes. That's more valuable.
CH: So Cam is the big question. No quarterback who has run for more than eight touchdowns in a season has ever run for eight or more the next season.
TH: Yeah, but those quarterbacks didn't have the designed runs like Cam. Carolina's best play when it gets to the goal line is a run-pass option.
CH: I'm not too worried about Sean Payton's absence. Are you?
TH: It bothers me. Last year, Brees wanted those records and Payton wanted those records as much as anybody. They're throwing the ball when they have no business throwing. Now it's a different situation.
CH: What about Peyton Manning?
TH: I just think there are so many guys who are good with less risk. I'd rather just take Philip Rivers or Tony Romo.
CH: If you don't get Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Newton or Stafford, I think you should just wait.
KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE: DON'T DRAFT MICHAEL VICK EARLY
Vick was third in the NFL last season in QB rushing yards (behind Cam Newton and Tim Tebow) while playing just 13 games. But if you prorate his points over 16 games, he's still not a top-five QB. That's because Vick is not close to the 600-pass-attempt threshold that separates elite QBs from the rest. (Exceptions to the rule: Newton, whose rushing TDs are planned plays, and Aaron Rodgers, whose 502 attempts were goosed by an unreal 9.25 yap.)
TURF WARS
Christopher Harris breaks down this season's top QB battles.
Mark Sanchez vs. Tim Tebow (Jets): This is not what Sanchez needed. He'll start Week 1, but if the Jets get off to a slow start, fans and the inevitable media maelstrom will beg for Tebow Time. And for fantasy, Tebow would be the more attractive starter because of his potential for rushing scores and yards.
Matt Flynn vs. Tarvaris Jackson (Seahawks): Despite learning the QB art from Aaron Rodgers, Flynn is still almost totally untested. Meanwhile, Jackson has the arm strength and the athleticism advantage in this battle. But Flynn signed for $10 million guaranteed this winter, which makes him the favorite.
Matt Hasselbeck vs. Jake Locker (Titans): Hasselbeck had a great start to 2011, then faded in October. Locker has major accuracy questions. The winner will have fantasy weapons in hand, but this true training camp battle really is too close to call.
Blaine Gabbert vs. Chad Henne (Jaguars): Yuck. Gabbert needs a huge second-year leap to maximize Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson. He'll still start, if only because Henne has yet to throw more TDs than INTs in any of his four seasons.
Kevin Kolb vs. John Skelton (Cardinals): Arizona needs to prove its O-line is fixed before you think about investing here.
INJURIES ATWITTER
Stephania Bell's QB intel in 140 characters or fewer.
Peyton Manning's neck fusion is solid. If his arm is as strong as his Broncos teammates say, there will be a new sheriff in the AFC West.
Matt Schaub's foot broke in Week 10 under the weight of Albert Haynesworth. Lisfranc surgery, rehab and he's ready to roll in Houston.
After a high ankle sprain in October, Sam Bradford, and the Rams, were never right. He'll be fine this year if he can avoid the sacks.
Last year, Matt Cassel got a broken right hand and Kansas City got a busted season. But he's thrown the ball well in OTAs and is good to go.
WHERE HAVE ALL THE GREAT RUSHERS GONE?
Christopher Harris VS. Tim Hasselbeck
CH: I think this might be the worst year ever for fantasy running backs. There are so few guys you can trust.
TH: I'd trust Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice. Those are the big three. But I'd also believe in MJD and Matt Forte. Forte is as complete a back as there is in the NFL. There's separation after the first three and then again after the top five.
CH: Forte is not a good goal-line back. I'd rather have Ryan Mathews.
TH: Don't forget that Mike Tice is calling plays now. That will be a very good thing for Forte. He will run more.
CH: Do you see Chris Johnson bouncing back? People who had him last season were burned.
TH: I can't imagine it can possibly be as bad as it was last year, when he was talked about as the No. 1 overall pick. He's healthy and has been part of the offseason program. Plus, he's bruised by the embarrassment of how bad last season went. Most of all, he plays for a team that wants to run the ball.
CH: How good is Trent Richardson? Is he the next Adrian Peterson?
TH: No. He's a really good player who will touch the ball a lot, but you have to look at that team, where they are up front, what they are defensively and the other defenses in that division. When are they going to be winning and running the ball? They'll be running for three quarters, not four.
CH: What should people do about Jamaal Charles and Peterson, two stars with torn ACLs? I don't think they should be grouped together, because their injuries came at different times.
TH: I'm skeptical of these guys. Delay your draft any way possible. Have a family wedding. Get more information.
KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE: DRAFT TRENT RICHARDSON
Afraid to pick the Crimson Tide wunderkind because the Browns were next to last in 2011 with just 3.7 ypc? Don't be. These four running backs had impressive fantasy numbers last season behind terrible blocking.
* Good blocking rate (GBR): The percentage of running plays in which the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt the rush attempt.
TURF WARS
Christopher Harris breaks down this season's top RB battles.
Fred Jackson vs. C.J. Spiller (Bills): It's tough to imagine Spiller seeing only 3.1 offensive touches per game this year, as he did in 2011 before Jackson got hurt. Jackson could wind up being severely overdrafted in fantasy leagues as a result.
Roy Helu vs. Tim Hightower (********): Don't be shocked if Hightower winds up starting games for flaky Mike Shanahan. Helu is another player who will be overdrafted this summer.
Jahvid Best vs. Kevin Smith vs. Mikel Leshoure (Lions): Detroit will baby the oft-injured Best, which means Smith and Leshoure (once his suspension ends after Week 2) will create a frustrating rotation.
Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams (Panthers): Another year, another fantasy mess in Carolina. But Cam Newton gets so many rushing TDs, there's no urgency to start either Stewart or Williams.
Stevan Ridley vs. Shane Vereen (Patriots): The Pats mess with fantasy owners. Ridley is the favorite for goal-line work, but you never know how New England will use these guys from week to week.
Doug Martin vs. LeGarrette Blount (Buccaneers): Blount fizzled as a starter in 2011, but the Bucs won't give the rookie Martin a pure starting role either. Expect a split of early-down work in Tampa.
INJURIES ATWITTER
Stephania Bell's RB intel in 140 characters or fewer.
Vikings' Adrian Peterson tore left ACL/MCL in Week 16. Naysayers: No way he starts 2012 on time. AP: I'll be back. Truth: No way to know.
Attention RBs: If you're going to tear your ACL, do it early. Jamaal Charles had a year of recovery and plans to play Week 1 for the Chiefs.
When is a minor foot sprain major? When you're Raider Darren McFadden and a two-week absence becomes two months. Healthy, yes, but a risk.
Lions' Jahvid Best missed 10 games in 2011 due to a concussion, not his first. He says he's recovered, but only in-game test will tell.
MEGATRON AND EVERYBODY ELSE
Christopher Harris VS. Tim Hasselbeck
CH: So it's Calvin Johnson and a bunch of guys.
TH: We have to put Larry Fitzgerald up there too.
CH: True, but only if he had Matthew Stafford throwing to him.
TH: That will sort itself out. Fitzgerald had 80 catches with terrible QB play by John Skelton and Kevin Kolb. One of these guys has to play better.
CH: That's my concern. He won't repeat that with the same bad quarterbacks.
TH: I think the situation will improve, and then he'll be even better.
CH: Maybe, but Johnson and Fitzgerald are definitely the top two. There are great receivers after them, but there isn't much difference. Why reach?
TH: I think you may see almost half of the first 50 picks be receivers.
CH: I agree there will be a lot taken in the top 50 but not so many in the top 20. You don't need to take a guy like Greg Jennings that early.
TH: You're going to be playing three of them, since most likely you'll be flexing a receiver.
CH: Two guys I'm worried about are Victor Cruz and Jordy Nelson. I'm just not sure if those big plays are repeatable.
TH: I'm not worried. I just think that's who Victor Cruz is, a big-play guy. And Aaron Rodgers always gave Nelson that signal to go when he saw press coverage. Nelson never lost. It was crazy. And he'll play more with Driver getting less time.
CH: Do you have any sleeper receivers? It happens every year.
TH: Denarius Moore is a guy I'm excited about. He's so fast. And he can track the ball. There is so much upside.
CH: I love Titus Young opposite Johnson in Detroit. I can see him being a top-15 fantasy receiver.
KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE: DON'T SHOOT FOR TARGETS
Bulk chances may be the most important stat for picking running backs and QBs. But when it comes to wide receivers, target totals often deceive. Don't believe us? In each of the following cases, the players with the fewer targets scored more fantasy points last season.
TURF WARS
Christopher Harris breaks down this season's top WR battles.
Michael Crabtree vs. Mario Manningham vs. Randy Moss (49ers): Crabtree's familiarity makes him the safest, but who drafts for safe? Manningham and Moss are deep threats for a QB who doesn't throw deep. Don't bother drafting anyone out of this troika.
Robert Meachem vs. Malcom Floyd (Chargers): With Vincent Jackson in Tampa, Philip Rivers needs a new No. 1 WR. Both Meachem and Floyd offer a size-speed package. Meachem has missed only two games in four years; Floyd has played a complete slate only once in seven seasons. I'd take Meachem.
Titus Young vs. Nate Burleson (Lions): Detroit uses three-receiver sets a ton, so this fight is over targets. Last year, Burleson had 110 looks, Young 84. Expect those numbers to flip-flop. Go with Young.
Rueben Randle vs. Jerrel Jernigan vs. Ramses Barden vs. Domenik Hixon (Giants): Victor Cruz proved the Giants' No. 3 job can become a launching pad for fantasy value. Randle, a rookie with 4.5 speed, has a great shot to step in for Manningham.
Brian Quick vs. Chris Givens vs. Danario Alexander vs. Steve Smith vs. Greg Salas vs. Danny Amendola (Rams): Sam Bradford has to produce a fantasy-relevant receiver eventually, doesn't he? Quick, a rookie from App State, has big-play potential and should be the best fantasy draftee, but Amendola will amass more catches.
INJURIES ATWITTER
Stephania Bell's WR intel in 140 characters or fewer.
Houston's Andre Johnson was hamstrung for nearly 3 months in 2011. Now an offseason knee scope. Still great. But at 31, injuries adding up.
Hakeem Nicks began OTAs for the Giants with sharp routes. His reward? A foot fracture and surgery. Training camp? Maybe. Week 1? Expected.
After Kenny Britt's ACL surgery, swelling in each knee required scopes. The Titans are scaling back expectations. No lock for Week 1.
Stevie Johnson is looking good in Buffalo. A nagging groin injury required surgery in the spring, but he was back by minicamp.
WHEN DO THE TIGHT ENDS GO?
Christopher Harris VS. Tim Hasselbeck
CH: Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham had the two greatest tight end seasons ever, for fantasy or otherwise. But I don't think they should be first-round draft picks.
TH: They're off the chart. These guys have a unique skill set. They are both so big and still so athletic and strong. Patriots trainers would have to cut off Gronk's leg to keep him from playing. The matchups they create have become a huge problem that opposing coaches haven't figured out how to deal with. How do you stop Jimmy Graham when the Saints isolate him? You can't send a linebacker. You can't send a safety; he's too athletic. You can't do it with a corner because he's too strong and long.
CH: Yeah, but do you think they're first-round picks?
TH: If you're sitting there and the quarterback you like and the receiver you like and the running back you like are all gone, then going for Jimmy Graham is not horrible.
CH: I generally don't take a backup tight end no matter what. Free agent tight ends will be okay if Tony Gonzalez gets hurt.
TH: This idea about flexing tight ends, it sounds great. But if you take the 40th receiver, he'll probably get 100 points. The 10th fantasy tight end is going to have 100 fantasy points.
CH: Exactly, so the top 15 TEs aren't available, that's okay. No. 16 is Kellen Winslow. No. 17 is Martellus Bennett. If you get one of the top 12, you're not carrying another one. No question about it.
TH: Yeah, but people now will start to own two.
CH: With Gronkowski and Graham being so much better than the baseline tight end, maybe we can justify second or third round. But if you don't get one of those two guys, wait. They're all the same.
TH: Yeah, if you have Jermichael Finley or Vernon Davis, who cares?
KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE: GRONK HAS DEEP ISSUES
Think twice before passing up a top-five wideout for Gronk. Last year, the lockout toned down blitz packages, but teams now have a full summer to perfect schemes to exploit one hole in Gronkowski's game. While he was the NFL's top TE on short routes, he stumbled the farther he went downfield.
TURF WARS
Christopher Harris breaks down this season's top TE battles.
Jacob Tamme vs. Joel Dreessen (Broncos): Because Tamme is familiar with Peyton Manning from their Colts days, he figures to be the favorite target here. But Denver could use many two-TE sets, and remember Dreessen previously made a living vulturing value from Owen Daniels in Houston.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Aaron Hernandez (Patriots): Obviously, Gronkowski turned in the greatest fantasy season a tight end ever had last year, but Hernandez ain't chopped liver. If Gronk's ankle injury lingers, Hernandez gets even more looks in the red zone.
Dallas Clark vs. Luke Stocker (Buccaneers): If Clark has anything left in his tank, he'll be the pass catcher in the Tampa offense while Stocker focuses more on blocking and developing as a receiver. I'm not convinced that Clark is ready to leap back to fantasy relevance.
Zach Miller vs. Kellen Winslow (Seahawks): Miller didn't do much in 2011 when he was the unquestioned starter. Now K2 is on the depth chart too? Yikes.
Ed Dickson vs. Dennis Pitta (Ravens): Dickson's overall numbers from 2011 look better than Pitta's. But late in the season and especially in the playoffs, Pitta began to nose ahead. He has an edge in an annoying split on a team that will go two-TE a bunch.
INJURIES ATWITTER
Stephania Bell's TE intel in 140 characters or fewer.
The Gronk was not himself in the Super Bowl thanks to a high ankle sprain. Then came surgery, rehab and a nice big contract. He'll be back.
A torn plantar fascia slowed Antonio Gates over last two years as a Charger. Healthy now, he's had his best minicamp ever, says Norv Turner.
Like teammate Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki tore his ACL last season. Poor Chiefs. Also like Charles, Moeaki will be ready Week 1. Go Chiefs.
Ankle and rib injuries (and Jason Witten) limited play for Martellus Bennett in Big D. If he sheds pounds, he'll see time with NYG.
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100 things you should know
Throw away everything you learned last year. Fantasy has a new set of rules.
Updated: July 26, 2012, 4:41 PM ET
By Matthew Berry | ESPN The Magazine
Illustration by Sean McCabe
ESPN experts have a whole new set of rules for this season's fantasy football draft.
DROP YOUR CHEAT SHEET. The clock has ticked down on your second-round pick, leaving you mere moments to decide between two very different running back profiles. Who do you choose?
Player A: Over the past two years, among backs with at least 300 carries, he has the highest yards-per-carry average in the NFL (5.27). And in a league with so many running backs by committee, he is the unquestioned lead back, having averaged 19 touches per game last season. He's a touchdown machine, scoring in more than half his games, and he's a tough tackle too: His 5.4 yards per carry last season was better than the averages of Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster. Since he came into the league four years ago, no running back has a higher yards-per-catch average (10.3). Plus, he had only one fumble all of last year. In 2011, Peterson averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game in the games he finished. Our guy: 16.7.
Player B: He entered the league with a lot of hype -- he was the first back taken in the 2008 NFL draft -- but is it justified? Last year, he didn't get the ball much at the goal line (eight carries inside an opponent's 10-yard line) or anywhere else on the field (24 percent of his team's rushing attempts). Even one of his big calling cards, his pass-catching ability, took a hit, as his receptions and yards per reception (19 catches for 154 yards, 8.1 average) hit career lows in 2011. He seems to have an aversion to the end zone, scoring just four touchdowns last season (plus one receiving TD) and wasn't even a top-30 fantasy running back. After his team hired a new coach, the front office went out and traded for another rusher. Not exactly a vote of confidence.
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Rob Tringali
Last season's hamstring injuries behind him, Andre Johnson eyes a sixth 1,000-yard season.
Time's up. Which player do you want? You want Player A, right? And you're avoiding Player B, correct? I mean, it should be clear that when you go into your draft, you definitely want to target Player A, Darren McFadden. And make sure you don't get stuck with Player B...who is also Darren McFadden.
Gotcha.
Both of these McFadden profiles are, in fact, factual. I also intentionally made them wildly misleading to prove a point: Facts, when used selectively, are nothing but opinion. We all twist truths -- every fantasy analyst, every political pundit, every pop culture critic, every voice on every ESPN debate-style show. We can talk up or talk down just about anybody to strengthen our argument and shape your opinion. We just have to choose the right stats for the job.
Want me to talk about an injury-risk QB who hasn't played all 16 games for two straight seasons and now has to worry about a scaled-back offense (second-fewest pass attempts of his career last season)? Because I just described Aaron Rodgers.
Or perhaps you need me to talk up a promising young QB who's on the cusp of being the next big thing, having averaged 280 yards passing and 19 points in every full game he played last year. Because I just sold you Chad Henne.
As you prepare for a predraft stat bombardment of red zone targets, yards after contact, attempted air yards against five or more rushers, new offensive schemes, rumors of this guy being in the best shape of his life while this other guy is in the doghouse, average draft position and blah-blah-blah, it's vital that you understand just one thing: It's impossible -- and I mean impossible -- to get a complete statistical overview of a player. Potential value changes with every game, play, personnel grouping and scheme. So to make sense of the chaos and make a smart decision on a player, you must first figure out who you trust and who you don't and then make your own call. Because that's all any of us are doing: taking small pieces of the big picture and making a call.
Every statement that follows is 100 percent accurate. Some are about football players, some are about teams and some are about tendencies. And not one of the following 100 facts tells the whole story.
1. Over the first eight games of 2011, Cam Newton averaged 299 passing yards per game, fifth best in the NFL.
2. His 8.34 yards per attempt in those games was also fifth best.
3. Over the final eight games, Newton averaged 207 passing yards a game, 18th over that time.
4. Newton's 7.21 yards per attempt over the season's second half was 14th best in the NFL and worse than, among others, Matt Moore's average.
5. Quarterbacks who averaged more passing yards per game than Newton in the second half of the season: John Skelton, Mark Sanchez and Alex Smith.
6. Since 1991, 21 quarterbacks have rushed for at least six touchdowns in a season, but only one has rushed for at least six touchdowns two years in a row: Tim Tebow (six in 2010 and 2011).
7. The Panthers have DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert on their roster.
8. Peyton Manning has played 111 games indoors.
9. In those games, he has 230 touchdowns (6.2 TD percent) and 97 interceptions (2.6 INT percent).
10. Peyton Manning has played 97 games outdoors.
11. In those games, he has 169 touchdowns (4.9 TD percent) and 101 interceptions (2.9 INT percent).
12. Assuming he plays all 16 games this season for the Broncos, Peyton Manning will play 15 games outdoors.
13. In his last eight starts last season, Carson Palmer was fifth in passing yards, seventh in completion percentage, ninth in completions, 10th in attempts, fourth in yards per attempt, tied for second in passing plays of more than 25 yards and tied for 12th in touchdown passes, and he had Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey on the field at the same time in only five games.
14. Palmer was also tied for eighth in interceptions, and Oakland has a new offensive coordinator and head coach. But still, Palmer is ranked 20th among QBs on ESPN's draft board.
15. In the two years with Mike Shanahan as head coach, the ******** have been in the top five in passing attempts each season.
16. If you combined the stats of Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman and John Beck over the past two years and made them one quarterback, that QB would have averaged 3,843 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.
17. In 41 games at Baylor, Robert Griffin III had 2,254 yards rushing and 33 touchdowns.
18. Understand this for the rest of the season in everything you read, hear and see from me: I am not rational when it comes to Robert Griffin III.
19. This offseason, Bills coach Chan Gailey revealed that Ryan Fitzpatrick played the final nine games with two cracked ribs.
20. Prior to that injury, Fitzpatrick averaged 248 passing yards and two touchdowns for 15 fantasy points a game. He also completed 67.7% of his passes.
21. After that injury, he completed 58.2 percent of his passes.
22. Mark Sanchez had 84 overthrows last season, fourth most in the NFL.
23. Jets wideouts had 18 drops as a group, tied for seventh fewest in the NFL.
24. Tim Tebow is currently the "backup" quarterback for the Jets.
25. Since 2008, Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked an NFL-worst 168 times.
26. He has been sacked at least 40 times in three of the past four seasons.
27. Over the final five games last season, no quarterback had a higher QBR than & Philip Rivers (94.4).
28. Last season, Mike Tolbert and Vincent Jackson had 12 drops in 186 targets.
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AP Photo/Brian Blanco
So what if the Panters scale back his planned rushing plays. Newton has the arm to make up for a loss in rushing touchdowns.
29. The rest of the Chargers had six drops in 354 targets.
30. Mike Tolbert and Vincent Jackson are no longer with San Diego.
31. Michael Vick missed (under- or overthrown passes) on only 14.8 percent of red zone attempts last season.
32. Among quarterbacks with at least 50 red zone attempts, the only one with a lower miss percentage was Drew Brees (13.7 percent).
33. Only seven of Josh Freeman's 22 interceptions were on under- or overthrown passes (31.8 percent).
34. There were only four quarterbacks last season with a lower percentage of interceptions due to missed throws: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
35. Before his 172-yard, two-TD game against the last-ranked Tampa Bay run defense in Week 17, Michael Turner averaged 56 rushing yards over his five previous games.
36. He had single-digit fantasy points in four of his final six games.
37. He scored only once from Week 12 to Week 16.
38. Six of Turner's 11 touchdowns last season came in just three games: Week 4 at Seattle, Week 6 vs. Carolina and the aforementioned Week 17 vs. Tampa Bay.
39. Turner had only six 100-yard games last season. Half of those were when Julio Jones was out.
40. Since Marvin Lewis took over as Bengals coach in 2003, his lead running backs have averaged 1,124 yards, eight touchdowns and 282 carries a season.
41. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never had more than 229 carries in a season.
42. He has also never fumbled.
43. Those Bengals averages (1,124 yards and eight scores) combined with no fumbles and assuming no receiving yards would have been worth 160 fantasy points, or 15th among running backs, just 10 points out of the top 10.
44. Among running backs with at least 30 red zone carries last season, only Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch had a higher yards-per-carry average in the red zone than Green-Ellis (2.72).
45. Only five teams ran the ball in the red zone more than the Bengals last season.
46. Green-Ellis had 11 and 13 touchdowns, respectively, the past two seasons, with all but one coming from the red zone.
47. He is currently going in the sixth round.
48. Over his final three years at Tennessee, new Rams head coach Jeff Fisher's teams had 6,518 rushing yards, fourth best in the NFL.
49. The Titans had 56 rushing touchdowns (second in the NFL), a 4.6-yards-per-carry average (third in the NFL) and 1,413 rushing attempts (eighth in the NFL).
50. Of course, the Titans also had Chris Johnson. But still, what are the Rams going to do, throw it?
51. Steven Jackson is just 29 years old and has missed only two games for the Rams in the past three seasons.
52. From 2006 to 2010, Frank Gore averaged 14 games played and 51 receptions a season.
53. Last season, Gore played all 16 games.
54. He had 17 receptions.
55. Over the past six seasons, Gore has averaged 254 rushes and 45.3 receptions a year.
56. The only player in NFL history to have seven seasons with at least 254 rushes and 45 receptions is LaDainian Tomlinson.
57. Frank Gore is not LaDainian Tomlinson.
58. Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are not blocking backs.
59. Over the second half of last season, Donald Brown had 492 rushing yards, 16th in the NFL and more than LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller, Frank Gore and Roy Helu had.
60. Last season, the first that both Arian Foster and Ben Tate were healthy, the Texans ran the ball 52.2 percent of the time, second most in the NFL.
61. Through Nov. 15 of last season (the last week Matt Schaub played), the Texans had 292 pass attempts, ninth fewest in the league.
62. Andre Johnson has missed 12 games the past two seasons.
63. Johnson has never had double-digit touchdowns in a season.
64. Jeremy Bates coached quarterbacks for the Broncos in 2007 and 2008.
65. In 2007 and 2008, with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, Brandon Marshall had 351 total targets, the most in the NFL and 31 more than second-place Larry Fitzgerald.
66. Marshall hasn't had fewer than 1,000 yards receiving since 2006, when he had 309.
67. In 2007, Marshall had 102 receptions for 1,325 yards and seven TDs, and in 2008, he had 104 receptions for 1,265 yards and six TDs. They were the two best seasons of his career.
68. Since 2007, Marshall has played with nine different quarterbacks.
69. His quarterback this season is Jay Cutler. And the Bears' quarterbacks coach is Jeremy Bates.
70. Dwayne Bowe had seven drops and seven interceptions on passes intended for him last season.
71. The 14 combined drops/interceptions were tied for second most in the NFL.
72. Since 2008, there have been 20 receivers with more than 65 targets of at least 21 yards downfield. The only one not to drop a deep ball? Brandon Lloyd (88 targets).
73. Over the past two seasons, with Josh McDaniels as his head coach or primary offensive coordinator, Lloyd was the most targeted receiver on throws deeper than 20 yards downfield, with 73 such targets.
74. Calvin Johnson was second with 64.
75. Lloyd has done this with Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, A.J. Feeley and Kellen Clemens as his quarterbacks.
76. Lloyd's quarterback this year is Tom Brady. And his offensive coordinator is Josh McDaniels.
77. A.J. Green was fourth in the NFL last season with 12 receptions of at least 30 yards.
78. Of Green's 19 end zone targets, he caught only five (26 percent).
79. If his rate went up to, say, just 53 percent of caught end zone balls, Green would have finished with at least 174 fantasy points, seventh most and two more than Roddy White.
80. Roddy White led the NFL last season in third-down receptions for a first down.
81. The second-most third-down catches for a first down? Antonio Brown.
82. Starting with his Week 7 breakout game against Arizona (seven catches, 102 yards), Brown was 12th in the NFL in targets and tied for 17th in receptions, and he had the eighth-most receiving yards.
83. Over that same time frame, Mike Wallace was tied for 40th in targets, tied for 44th in receptions and 32nd in receiving yards.
84. Wallace did have more touchdowns than Brown over that time frame.
85. Four touchdowns to two.
86. Wallace is going, on average, four to five rounds ahead of Brown.
87. Last season, Torrey Smith was targeted at least 30 yards downfield 20 times. He caught just five of those balls, with two touchdowns.
88. Smith dropped only one pass (5 percent of targets, better than Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks and DeSean Jackson).
89. Joe Flacco had 18 overthrows on deep balls.
90. From 2008 to 2010, Flacco averaged just nine overthrows, and he had just six in 2010.
91. The Packers wideout with the best receptions-per-target percentage last year: Randall Cobb.
92. Cobb caught 25 of his 31 targets (80.6 percent) and led Packers receivers with 7.5 yards after the catch.
93. He's currently going outside the top 160.
94. Since 2008, only Drew Brees has thrown more balls and completed more passes to a tight end than Peyton Manning.
95. Manning's 71.8 percent completion rate to tight ends is second among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts to tight ends.
96. Jacob Tamme, Manning's former teammate in Indianapolis, is now on the Broncos.
97. Among tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were tied for first in end zone targets last season with 17. Third in the NFL with 15 end zone targets? Brandon Pettigrew.
98. Pettigrew dropped only one pass in the end zone, the same as Gronkowski, Graham and Jermichael Finley.
99. Had Pettigrew had the average completion percentage for a tight end in the end zone, that alone would have made him the eighth-best fantasy tight end last year.
100. Only Jimmy Graham had more games last season with five or more catches than...Tony Gonzalez.
Throw away everything you learned last year. Fantasy has a new set of rules.
Updated: July 26, 2012, 4:41 PM ET
By Matthew Berry | ESPN The Magazine
Illustration by Sean McCabe
ESPN experts have a whole new set of rules for this season's fantasy football draft.
DROP YOUR CHEAT SHEET. The clock has ticked down on your second-round pick, leaving you mere moments to decide between two very different running back profiles. Who do you choose?
Player A: Over the past two years, among backs with at least 300 carries, he has the highest yards-per-carry average in the NFL (5.27). And in a league with so many running backs by committee, he is the unquestioned lead back, having averaged 19 touches per game last season. He's a touchdown machine, scoring in more than half his games, and he's a tough tackle too: His 5.4 yards per carry last season was better than the averages of Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster. Since he came into the league four years ago, no running back has a higher yards-per-catch average (10.3). Plus, he had only one fumble all of last year. In 2011, Peterson averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game in the games he finished. Our guy: 16.7.
Player B: He entered the league with a lot of hype -- he was the first back taken in the 2008 NFL draft -- but is it justified? Last year, he didn't get the ball much at the goal line (eight carries inside an opponent's 10-yard line) or anywhere else on the field (24 percent of his team's rushing attempts). Even one of his big calling cards, his pass-catching ability, took a hit, as his receptions and yards per reception (19 catches for 154 yards, 8.1 average) hit career lows in 2011. He seems to have an aversion to the end zone, scoring just four touchdowns last season (plus one receiving TD) and wasn't even a top-30 fantasy running back. After his team hired a new coach, the front office went out and traded for another rusher. Not exactly a vote of confidence.
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Rob Tringali
Last season's hamstring injuries behind him, Andre Johnson eyes a sixth 1,000-yard season.
Time's up. Which player do you want? You want Player A, right? And you're avoiding Player B, correct? I mean, it should be clear that when you go into your draft, you definitely want to target Player A, Darren McFadden. And make sure you don't get stuck with Player B...who is also Darren McFadden.
Gotcha.
Both of these McFadden profiles are, in fact, factual. I also intentionally made them wildly misleading to prove a point: Facts, when used selectively, are nothing but opinion. We all twist truths -- every fantasy analyst, every political pundit, every pop culture critic, every voice on every ESPN debate-style show. We can talk up or talk down just about anybody to strengthen our argument and shape your opinion. We just have to choose the right stats for the job.
Want me to talk about an injury-risk QB who hasn't played all 16 games for two straight seasons and now has to worry about a scaled-back offense (second-fewest pass attempts of his career last season)? Because I just described Aaron Rodgers.
Or perhaps you need me to talk up a promising young QB who's on the cusp of being the next big thing, having averaged 280 yards passing and 19 points in every full game he played last year. Because I just sold you Chad Henne.
As you prepare for a predraft stat bombardment of red zone targets, yards after contact, attempted air yards against five or more rushers, new offensive schemes, rumors of this guy being in the best shape of his life while this other guy is in the doghouse, average draft position and blah-blah-blah, it's vital that you understand just one thing: It's impossible -- and I mean impossible -- to get a complete statistical overview of a player. Potential value changes with every game, play, personnel grouping and scheme. So to make sense of the chaos and make a smart decision on a player, you must first figure out who you trust and who you don't and then make your own call. Because that's all any of us are doing: taking small pieces of the big picture and making a call.
Every statement that follows is 100 percent accurate. Some are about football players, some are about teams and some are about tendencies. And not one of the following 100 facts tells the whole story.
1. Over the first eight games of 2011, Cam Newton averaged 299 passing yards per game, fifth best in the NFL.
2. His 8.34 yards per attempt in those games was also fifth best.
3. Over the final eight games, Newton averaged 207 passing yards a game, 18th over that time.
4. Newton's 7.21 yards per attempt over the season's second half was 14th best in the NFL and worse than, among others, Matt Moore's average.
5. Quarterbacks who averaged more passing yards per game than Newton in the second half of the season: John Skelton, Mark Sanchez and Alex Smith.
6. Since 1991, 21 quarterbacks have rushed for at least six touchdowns in a season, but only one has rushed for at least six touchdowns two years in a row: Tim Tebow (six in 2010 and 2011).
7. The Panthers have DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert on their roster.
8. Peyton Manning has played 111 games indoors.
9. In those games, he has 230 touchdowns (6.2 TD percent) and 97 interceptions (2.6 INT percent).
10. Peyton Manning has played 97 games outdoors.
11. In those games, he has 169 touchdowns (4.9 TD percent) and 101 interceptions (2.9 INT percent).
12. Assuming he plays all 16 games this season for the Broncos, Peyton Manning will play 15 games outdoors.
13. In his last eight starts last season, Carson Palmer was fifth in passing yards, seventh in completion percentage, ninth in completions, 10th in attempts, fourth in yards per attempt, tied for second in passing plays of more than 25 yards and tied for 12th in touchdown passes, and he had Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey on the field at the same time in only five games.
14. Palmer was also tied for eighth in interceptions, and Oakland has a new offensive coordinator and head coach. But still, Palmer is ranked 20th among QBs on ESPN's draft board.
15. In the two years with Mike Shanahan as head coach, the ******** have been in the top five in passing attempts each season.
16. If you combined the stats of Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman and John Beck over the past two years and made them one quarterback, that QB would have averaged 3,843 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.
17. In 41 games at Baylor, Robert Griffin III had 2,254 yards rushing and 33 touchdowns.
18. Understand this for the rest of the season in everything you read, hear and see from me: I am not rational when it comes to Robert Griffin III.
19. This offseason, Bills coach Chan Gailey revealed that Ryan Fitzpatrick played the final nine games with two cracked ribs.
20. Prior to that injury, Fitzpatrick averaged 248 passing yards and two touchdowns for 15 fantasy points a game. He also completed 67.7% of his passes.
21. After that injury, he completed 58.2 percent of his passes.
22. Mark Sanchez had 84 overthrows last season, fourth most in the NFL.
23. Jets wideouts had 18 drops as a group, tied for seventh fewest in the NFL.
24. Tim Tebow is currently the "backup" quarterback for the Jets.
25. Since 2008, Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked an NFL-worst 168 times.
26. He has been sacked at least 40 times in three of the past four seasons.
27. Over the final five games last season, no quarterback had a higher QBR than & Philip Rivers (94.4).
28. Last season, Mike Tolbert and Vincent Jackson had 12 drops in 186 targets.
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AP Photo/Brian Blanco
So what if the Panters scale back his planned rushing plays. Newton has the arm to make up for a loss in rushing touchdowns.
29. The rest of the Chargers had six drops in 354 targets.
30. Mike Tolbert and Vincent Jackson are no longer with San Diego.
31. Michael Vick missed (under- or overthrown passes) on only 14.8 percent of red zone attempts last season.
32. Among quarterbacks with at least 50 red zone attempts, the only one with a lower miss percentage was Drew Brees (13.7 percent).
33. Only seven of Josh Freeman's 22 interceptions were on under- or overthrown passes (31.8 percent).
34. There were only four quarterbacks last season with a lower percentage of interceptions due to missed throws: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
35. Before his 172-yard, two-TD game against the last-ranked Tampa Bay run defense in Week 17, Michael Turner averaged 56 rushing yards over his five previous games.
36. He had single-digit fantasy points in four of his final six games.
37. He scored only once from Week 12 to Week 16.
38. Six of Turner's 11 touchdowns last season came in just three games: Week 4 at Seattle, Week 6 vs. Carolina and the aforementioned Week 17 vs. Tampa Bay.
39. Turner had only six 100-yard games last season. Half of those were when Julio Jones was out.
40. Since Marvin Lewis took over as Bengals coach in 2003, his lead running backs have averaged 1,124 yards, eight touchdowns and 282 carries a season.
41. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never had more than 229 carries in a season.
42. He has also never fumbled.
43. Those Bengals averages (1,124 yards and eight scores) combined with no fumbles and assuming no receiving yards would have been worth 160 fantasy points, or 15th among running backs, just 10 points out of the top 10.
44. Among running backs with at least 30 red zone carries last season, only Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch had a higher yards-per-carry average in the red zone than Green-Ellis (2.72).
45. Only five teams ran the ball in the red zone more than the Bengals last season.
46. Green-Ellis had 11 and 13 touchdowns, respectively, the past two seasons, with all but one coming from the red zone.
47. He is currently going in the sixth round.
48. Over his final three years at Tennessee, new Rams head coach Jeff Fisher's teams had 6,518 rushing yards, fourth best in the NFL.
49. The Titans had 56 rushing touchdowns (second in the NFL), a 4.6-yards-per-carry average (third in the NFL) and 1,413 rushing attempts (eighth in the NFL).
50. Of course, the Titans also had Chris Johnson. But still, what are the Rams going to do, throw it?
51. Steven Jackson is just 29 years old and has missed only two games for the Rams in the past three seasons.
52. From 2006 to 2010, Frank Gore averaged 14 games played and 51 receptions a season.
53. Last season, Gore played all 16 games.
54. He had 17 receptions.
55. Over the past six seasons, Gore has averaged 254 rushes and 45.3 receptions a year.
56. The only player in NFL history to have seven seasons with at least 254 rushes and 45 receptions is LaDainian Tomlinson.
57. Frank Gore is not LaDainian Tomlinson.
58. Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are not blocking backs.
59. Over the second half of last season, Donald Brown had 492 rushing yards, 16th in the NFL and more than LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller, Frank Gore and Roy Helu had.
60. Last season, the first that both Arian Foster and Ben Tate were healthy, the Texans ran the ball 52.2 percent of the time, second most in the NFL.
61. Through Nov. 15 of last season (the last week Matt Schaub played), the Texans had 292 pass attempts, ninth fewest in the league.
62. Andre Johnson has missed 12 games the past two seasons.
63. Johnson has never had double-digit touchdowns in a season.
64. Jeremy Bates coached quarterbacks for the Broncos in 2007 and 2008.
65. In 2007 and 2008, with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, Brandon Marshall had 351 total targets, the most in the NFL and 31 more than second-place Larry Fitzgerald.
66. Marshall hasn't had fewer than 1,000 yards receiving since 2006, when he had 309.
67. In 2007, Marshall had 102 receptions for 1,325 yards and seven TDs, and in 2008, he had 104 receptions for 1,265 yards and six TDs. They were the two best seasons of his career.
68. Since 2007, Marshall has played with nine different quarterbacks.
69. His quarterback this season is Jay Cutler. And the Bears' quarterbacks coach is Jeremy Bates.
70. Dwayne Bowe had seven drops and seven interceptions on passes intended for him last season.
71. The 14 combined drops/interceptions were tied for second most in the NFL.
72. Since 2008, there have been 20 receivers with more than 65 targets of at least 21 yards downfield. The only one not to drop a deep ball? Brandon Lloyd (88 targets).
73. Over the past two seasons, with Josh McDaniels as his head coach or primary offensive coordinator, Lloyd was the most targeted receiver on throws deeper than 20 yards downfield, with 73 such targets.
74. Calvin Johnson was second with 64.
75. Lloyd has done this with Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, A.J. Feeley and Kellen Clemens as his quarterbacks.
76. Lloyd's quarterback this year is Tom Brady. And his offensive coordinator is Josh McDaniels.
77. A.J. Green was fourth in the NFL last season with 12 receptions of at least 30 yards.
78. Of Green's 19 end zone targets, he caught only five (26 percent).
79. If his rate went up to, say, just 53 percent of caught end zone balls, Green would have finished with at least 174 fantasy points, seventh most and two more than Roddy White.
80. Roddy White led the NFL last season in third-down receptions for a first down.
81. The second-most third-down catches for a first down? Antonio Brown.
82. Starting with his Week 7 breakout game against Arizona (seven catches, 102 yards), Brown was 12th in the NFL in targets and tied for 17th in receptions, and he had the eighth-most receiving yards.
83. Over that same time frame, Mike Wallace was tied for 40th in targets, tied for 44th in receptions and 32nd in receiving yards.
84. Wallace did have more touchdowns than Brown over that time frame.
85. Four touchdowns to two.
86. Wallace is going, on average, four to five rounds ahead of Brown.
87. Last season, Torrey Smith was targeted at least 30 yards downfield 20 times. He caught just five of those balls, with two touchdowns.
88. Smith dropped only one pass (5 percent of targets, better than Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks and DeSean Jackson).
89. Joe Flacco had 18 overthrows on deep balls.
90. From 2008 to 2010, Flacco averaged just nine overthrows, and he had just six in 2010.
91. The Packers wideout with the best receptions-per-target percentage last year: Randall Cobb.
92. Cobb caught 25 of his 31 targets (80.6 percent) and led Packers receivers with 7.5 yards after the catch.
93. He's currently going outside the top 160.
94. Since 2008, only Drew Brees has thrown more balls and completed more passes to a tight end than Peyton Manning.
95. Manning's 71.8 percent completion rate to tight ends is second among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts to tight ends.
96. Jacob Tamme, Manning's former teammate in Indianapolis, is now on the Broncos.
97. Among tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were tied for first in end zone targets last season with 17. Third in the NFL with 15 end zone targets? Brandon Pettigrew.
98. Pettigrew dropped only one pass in the end zone, the same as Gronkowski, Graham and Jermichael Finley.
99. Had Pettigrew had the average completion percentage for a tight end in the end zone, that alone would have made him the eighth-best fantasy tight end last year.
100. Only Jimmy Graham had more games last season with five or more catches than...Tony Gonzalez.
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Wonderin if NiketalkS&T league is gonna be re upped for this year....
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Wonderin if NiketalkS&T league is gonna be re upped for this year....
there's a couple guys already with leagues getting going on S&T, just search around on the front page of S&T and you'll see the threads. One is a $25 buy-in another is a dynasty league that is looking for some new owners to take over some teams.
I'll be heading up a ESPN 12-team NT league. I'll probably wait another week or so before I start getting guys together.
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Edit: sorry about that...
Just finished a mock. Thoughts?
Probably wont be huge deal but you have no QB week 6.
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Anyone up for a fantasy draft with defensive players?
These type of drafts are fun. Your able to find gems. When people start to take Def players
These type of drafts are fun. Your able to find gems. When people start to take Def players
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You know it's a wrap when people are calling for your retirement
Jahvid Best (concussions) insisted Friday that retirement has "not crossed my mind yet," after failing to receive medical clearance for camp.
A potentially overly optimistic Best seems convinced he'll be playing ball this year. "If this was four or five years ago," Best argued, "I probably would have played last season. Now that everything's under a microscope, it takes a lot longer." Added coach Jim Schwartz, "We're very optimistic we'll get him back." The Lions are awaiting the medical opinion of outside experts. It remains an obvious concern that Best still has not been cleared. Jul 27 - 7:34 PM
Yeah, my dude best needs to chill. Concussions are no joke, his health is more important than his career. PERIOD. END OF STORY.
It's Kevin Smith's & Mikel Leshoure's job to win now. Leshoure is suspended 'til after week 2. I think you gets can figure out the rest....
As for Mr. 60 Minutes...
Steelers signed WR Antonio Brown to a five-year, $42.5 million extension through 2017.
Brown had $540,000 remaining on his rookie deal, and was slated for restricted free agency in 2013. The extension isn't a message sender, it's a slap in the face of Mike Wallace, against whom the Steelers' standoff now has the potential to get quite ugly. Wallace can forget about an extension of his own, and would almost certainly have to play for $2.742 million this season, assuming he ever reports and/or plays for the Steelers. There's bad blood in the water in Pittsburgh. Jul 27 - 7:36
Yea....
Wallace wants a contract in the neighborhood of Vincent Jackson's 5-year $55.555 contract (roughly 11 millie a year) which isn't really unreasonable. Initial reports had it that Wallace wanted Fitzy money ($120 millie, over 8 years), which would have been justifiably absurd for the Steelers to honor. In any case Wallace is on my DND list (do not draft). He's no DeSean Jackson (a ***** who is afraid of contact), but in any case there's no substitution for training with your teammates. Antonio Brown is the receiver to own this season HOWEVER, I like Mike Wallace as a VALUE pick. Anyone drafting him as a WR1 this season is going to be sorely disappointed.
He's digged in for a rather long hold out, so I highly doubt he'll report to camp. Who knows if we see him during the pre-season or week 1 for that matter. Slot receiver Emmanuel Sanders is working out with the first team in camp.
Oh and as far as MJD goes, I'll make it short and sweet. Handcuff him with Rashad Jennings, but really you'd do well to look elsewhere as his current ADP is still rather rich for my liking. We've seen how holdouts effect RB's *cough* CHRIS ******G JOHNSON *cough*
Jahvid Best (concussions) insisted Friday that retirement has "not crossed my mind yet," after failing to receive medical clearance for camp.
A potentially overly optimistic Best seems convinced he'll be playing ball this year. "If this was four or five years ago," Best argued, "I probably would have played last season. Now that everything's under a microscope, it takes a lot longer." Added coach Jim Schwartz, "We're very optimistic we'll get him back." The Lions are awaiting the medical opinion of outside experts. It remains an obvious concern that Best still has not been cleared. Jul 27 - 7:34 PM
Yeah, my dude best needs to chill. Concussions are no joke, his health is more important than his career. PERIOD. END OF STORY.
It's Kevin Smith's & Mikel Leshoure's job to win now. Leshoure is suspended 'til after week 2. I think you gets can figure out the rest....
As for Mr. 60 Minutes...
Steelers signed WR Antonio Brown to a five-year, $42.5 million extension through 2017.
Brown had $540,000 remaining on his rookie deal, and was slated for restricted free agency in 2013. The extension isn't a message sender, it's a slap in the face of Mike Wallace, against whom the Steelers' standoff now has the potential to get quite ugly. Wallace can forget about an extension of his own, and would almost certainly have to play for $2.742 million this season, assuming he ever reports and/or plays for the Steelers. There's bad blood in the water in Pittsburgh. Jul 27 - 7:36
Yea....
Wallace wants a contract in the neighborhood of Vincent Jackson's 5-year $55.555 contract (roughly 11 millie a year) which isn't really unreasonable. Initial reports had it that Wallace wanted Fitzy money ($120 millie, over 8 years), which would have been justifiably absurd for the Steelers to honor. In any case Wallace is on my DND list (do not draft). He's no DeSean Jackson (a ***** who is afraid of contact), but in any case there's no substitution for training with your teammates. Antonio Brown is the receiver to own this season HOWEVER, I like Mike Wallace as a VALUE pick. Anyone drafting him as a WR1 this season is going to be sorely disappointed.
He's digged in for a rather long hold out, so I highly doubt he'll report to camp. Who knows if we see him during the pre-season or week 1 for that matter. Slot receiver Emmanuel Sanders is working out with the first team in camp.
Oh and as far as MJD goes, I'll make it short and sweet. Handcuff him with Rashad Jennings, but really you'd do well to look elsewhere as his current ADP is still rather rich for my liking. We've seen how holdouts effect RB's *cough* CHRIS ******G JOHNSON *cough*
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Oh I forgot to mention that Ryan Williams is working with the first team while Beanie sits on the PUP, as of right now I'd say it looks like a RBBC, but Williams has a legit shot at stealing the starting job from Wells.
I'd also keep an eye on that McGahee, Hillman situation down in Denver. If Hillman can improve his pass-blocking and learn the playbook by mid-season......
I'd also keep an eye on that McGahee, Hillman situation down in Denver. If Hillman can improve his pass-blocking and learn the playbook by mid-season......
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SneakerHeathen: Although I usually play Yahoo, I'm down for an ESPN keeper dynasty. I'd say two keepers is fine.
Fizzy Womack: Strengthen your RB2 through trade. In the future, don't draft two QBs with the same bye week. Defeats the purpose of having a backup QB on the bench.
High-value PPR targets: Forte, F. Jackson, Welker.
Trent Richardson: Completely agree with Berry's more modest assessment than Yahoo experts' overvaluing.
QB: Comfortable with Peyton or Rivers (bounce back year) later in the draft after everyone else "panics" for Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Cam, etc. early.
RB: Liking value for Martin, Beanie, Ridley.
WR: Lance Moore should have a bigger year with Meachem out of the picture. Although I do believe Brees has somewhat of a "down year" without Payton on the sidelines.
TE: Fleener late with high value rather than reaching for Gronk and Graham early.
D/ST and K: Let everyone rush to pick high. Worst case scenario, play the match-ups and add/drop every week.
Fizzy Womack: Strengthen your RB2 through trade. In the future, don't draft two QBs with the same bye week. Defeats the purpose of having a backup QB on the bench.
High-value PPR targets: Forte, F. Jackson, Welker.
Trent Richardson: Completely agree with Berry's more modest assessment than Yahoo experts' overvaluing.
QB: Comfortable with Peyton or Rivers (bounce back year) later in the draft after everyone else "panics" for Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Cam, etc. early.
RB: Liking value for Martin, Beanie, Ridley.
WR: Lance Moore should have a bigger year with Meachem out of the picture. Although I do believe Brees has somewhat of a "down year" without Payton on the sidelines.
TE: Fleener late with high value rather than reaching for Gronk and Graham early.
D/ST and K: Let everyone rush to pick high. Worst case scenario, play the match-ups and add/drop every week.
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Mikel Leshoure injured his hammy today, no breaks for the Lions.
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I cannot wait for this FF season...