***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[rico x hood]

The Republicans going after minorities is like chasing a girl that's married to a man that can never make her orgasm. Things are cool but could be better but it's not enough to leave.

So why the hell bother?

 

[whywesteppin]

the better anology would be that it's like chasing your ex-gf who used to like you but you beat her every night and ignore her otherwise and now she's with a rich guy.

but i agree. futile to keep pursuing, especially until you get through AA.

 

[RustyShackleford]

Because the shifting demographics in this country means that there is not enough white people, especially conservative leaning white people, for them to get the presidency.

And lets remember it was the GOP that pushed minorities groups away, blacks, Muslims and now with Hispanics and women.

Even college educated whites are staring to slowly turn on them. And young people are generally more liberal than their parents.

-If Dems can finally making gains with working class whites, then GOP has we know it is done.

 

[ben roethlisberger]

The shift in the demographic is a huge point.

Back in 04' Bush won with 58% of the white vote and 26% of non white votes. Romneys white votes in 08' was 59% and he lost. It's estimated now that Trump would have to get 64% of the white vote just to have a chance.

This is why you saw Ben Carson and Jeb Bush speaking at the Urban League forum earlier this year. So there's no way Trumps team isn't aware of the minority shift in population. His running mates were quite aware.

 

[cashbanks]

The Republicans going after minorities is like chasing a girl that's married to a man that can never make her orgasm. Things are cool but could be better but it's not enough to leave.

So why the hell bother?

wouldn't it be easier to get a woman who's man doesn't satisfy her? that is unless you already know you can't either

 

[ben roethlisberger]

This is a pretty good rational explanation for why Trump is where he is.

The Revenge of the Lower Classes and the Rise of American Fascism

Posted on Aug 8, 2016

By Chris Hedges

http://m.truthdig.com/report/item/t...ses_and_the_rise_of_american_fascism_20160302

Semi-long read but well worth it.

 

[moe fab]

The fakt that hillary is not a very good choice for president, underscores how kompletely ludikrous it is for trump to even be konsidered. Of kourse hillary is korrupt n a typikal politician, but even with all that, she is still light years ahead of trump. This elektion, for me at least, is more about trump not getting elekted, than it is getting hillary elekted. So no matter how much you dog hillary, nor prop up trump, i would never vote for that racist, sexist, xenophobik ***hole. Unless you paid for my vote, which would be very expensive, n i live in california, so the elektorate wouldnt be in danger anyway; free money

By the way, that last part was sarkastic...but not that sarkastic

Also, married women, women with a fiancé or boyfriend are the best kuz theres only physikal n no need for emotion [emoji]128129[/emoji]

 

[RustyShackleford]

Even if Hillary was running against another Republican, finally having a liberal Supreme Court will be huge.

Add to her having a better economic plan, and having a social justice make up for her shortcomings elsewhere.

 

[RustyShackleford]

Trump has hired Roger Ailes as an adviser, I'm not even joking :x

The dumpster fire continues to burn

 

[moe fab]

Oh yeah lol, i forgot about the supreme kourt, that is probably the biggest reason to vote hillary, if for nothing else. That will be a huge improvement for this kountry n will also help to lead us into a better direktion kollectively. Thanks for reminding me rusty.

 

[Kimchi Papi]

What's funny is the one of trumps misgivings is he's seen as sexist & now ailes is climbing on board to help coach him for the debates whose had his own sexist issues as of late.

trump worst debate moments were with Megan Kelly & Carly Fiorina. How are trump & ailes gonna handle Hilary?

 

[noskey]

How soon into the debates will Trump call Hillary, or say something, extremely sexist? 2, 3 minutes?

 

[harlemtothebronx]

Trump has hired Roger Ailes as an adviser, I'm not even joking

The dumpster fire continues to burn

When I heard that he stepped down, it honestly crossed my mind...then I laughed it off.

Wow, man. Stranger than fiction.

 

[rillo561]

Trump has hired Roger Ailes as an adviser, I'm not even joking :x

The dumpster fire continues to burn

Really? Wow

 

[Nike Jordan]

Lindsey Graham, like most Republicans is party before country. No matter what. Plus he likes bombing the Middle East.

 

[sundoobie]

Hindsight is 20/20. Stop it. No one thought he'd stay on top like he did, and you know it. So now these same experts suddenly can predict **** again? Please. Take that **** with the smallest grain of salt.

No one thought? According to whom? By July 2015, most 'experts' based of polls and a poor Republican field of candidates predicted he would win the primary.

Do you NOT know how to read a poll? The part where it has the candidates name next to a + sign. It means they are winning!

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

CNN/ORC 4/28 - 5/1 406 LV 49 25 19 Trump +24
IBD/TIPP 4/22 - 4/28 397 RV 48 29 16 Trump +19
USA Today/Suffolk 4/20 - 4/24 292 LV 45 29 17 Trump +16
Pew Research 4/12 - 4/19 740 RV 44 25 20 Trump +19
FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5
CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13
The Atlantic/PRRI 3/30 - 4/3 676 RV 37 31 23 Trump +6
IBD/TIPP 3/28 - 4/2 388 RV 38 31 19 Trump +7
McClatchy/Marist 3/29 - 3/31 444 RV 40 35 20 Trump +5
Pew Research 3/17 - 3/27 834 RV 41 32 20 Trump +9
PPP (D) 3/24 - 3/26 505 LV 42 32 22 Trump +10
FOX News 3/20 - 3/22 388 LV 41 38 17 Trump +3
Bloomberg 3/19 - 3/22 366 LV 40 31 25 Trump +9
Monmouth 3/17 - 3/20 353 RV 41 29 18 Trump +12
CNN/ORC 3/17 - 3/20 397 RV 47 31 17 Trump +16
CBS News/NY Times 3/17 - 3/20 362 LV 46 26 20 Trump +20
Quinnipiac 3/16 - 3/21 652 RV 43 29 16 Trump +14
Rasmussen Reports 3/16 - 3/17 719 LV 43 28 21 Trump +15
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 3/3 - 3/6 397 LV 30 27 22 Trump +3
ABC News/Wash Post 3/3 - 3/6 RV 34 25 13 Trump +9
CNN/ORC 2/24 - 2/27 427 RV 49 15 6 Trump +33
IBD/TIPP 2/19 - 2/24 400 RV 31 20 7 Trump +11
Rasmussen Reports 2/21 - 2/22 697 LV 36 17 12 Trump +15
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 404 LV 36 19 8 Trump +17
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 2/14 - 2/16 400 LV 26 28 11 Cruz +2
CBS News 2/12 - 2/16 581 LV 35 18 11 Trump +17
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 358 LV 35 20 7 Trump +15
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 602 LV 39 18 6 Trump +20
Quinnipiac 2/2 - 2/4 507 RV 31 22 3 Trump +9
Rasmussen Reports 2/3 - 2/4 725 LV 31 20 6 Trump +10
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 531 LV 25 21 5 Trump +4
IBD/TIPP 1/22 - 1/27 395 RV 31 21 2 Trump +10
CNN/ORC 1/21 - 1/24 405 RV 41 19 1 Trump +22
ABC News/Wash Post 1/21 - 1/24 356 RV 37 21 2 Trump +16
FOX News 1/18 - 1/21 405 LV 34 20 4 Trump +14
Monmouth 1/15 - 1/18 385 RV 36 17 3 Trump +19
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 1/9 - 1/13 400 LV 33 20 3 Trump +13
CBS News/NY Times 1/7 - 1/10 442 LV 36 19 2 Trump +17
IBD/TIPP 1/4 - 1/8 414 LV 34 18 2 Trump +16
FOX News 1/4 - 1/7 423 RV 35 20 2 Trump +15
CNN/ORC 12/17 - 12/21 438 RV 39 18 2 Trump +21
Quinnipiac 12/16 - 12/20 508 RV 28 24 1 Trump +4
FOX News 12/16 - 12/17 402 RV 39 18 2 Trump +21
PPP (D) 12/16 - 12/17 532 LV 34 18 2 Trump +16
ABC News/Wash Post 12/10 - 12/13 1002 A 38 15 2 Trump +23
Monmouth 12/10 - 12/13 385 RV 41 14 3 Trump +27
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 12/6 - 12/9 400 LV 27 22 2 Trump +5
CBS News/NY Times 12/4 - 12/8 431 LV 35 16 3 Trump +19
USA Today/Suffolk 12/2 - 12/6 357 LV 27 17 2 Trump +10
IBD/TIPP 11/30 - 12/4 394 RV 27 13 2 Trump +12
CNN/ORC 11/27 - 12/1 445 RV 36 16 2 Trump +20
Quinnipiac 11/23 - 11/30 672 RV 27 16 2 Trump +10
FOX News 11/16 - 11/19 434 RV 28 14 2 Trump +10
ABC News/Wash Post 11/16 - 11/19 373 RV 32 8 3 Trump +10
PPP (D) 11/16 - 11/17 607 RV 26 14 3 Trump +7
Bloomberg 11/15 - 11/17 379 RV 24 9 3 Trump +4
FOX News 11/1 - 11/3 -- 26 11 4 Trump +3
McClatchy/Marist 10/29 - 11/4 426 RV 23 8 4 Carson +1
Quinnipiac 10/29 - 11/2 502 RV 24 13 3 Trump +1
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/25 - 10/29 400 LV 23 10 3 Carson +6
IBD/TIPP 10/24 - 10/29 402 RV 28 6 1 Trump +5
CBS News/NY Times 10/21 - 10/25 575 RV 22 4 4 Carson +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/15 - 10/18 400 RV 25 9 3 Trump +3
Monmouth 10/15 - 10/18 348 RV 28 10 1 Trump +10
ABC News/Wash Post 10/15 - 10/18 RV 32 6 2 Trump +10
CNN/ORC 10/14 - 10/17 465 RV 27 4 3 Trump +5
FOX News 10/10 - 10/12 398 LV 24 10 1 Trump +1
CBS News 10/4 - 10/8 419 RV 27 9 2 Trump +6
PPP (D) 10/1 - 10/4 627 RV 27 7 4 Trump +10
IBD/TIPP 9/26 - 10/1 377 RV 17 6 4 Carson +7
USA Today/Suffolk 9/24 - 9/28 380 LV 23 6 2 Trump +10
Pew Research* 9/22 - 9/27 496 RV 25 6 1 Trump +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/20 - 9/24 230 RV 21 5 6 Trump +1
FOX News 9/20 - 9/22 398 LV 26 8 4 Trump +8
Bloomberg 9/18 - 9/21 391 RV 21 5 4 Trump +5
Quinnipiac 9/17 - 9/21 737 RV 25 7 2 Trump +8
CNN/ORC 9/17 - 9/19 444 RV 24 6 2 Trump +9
CBS News/NY Times 9/9 - 9/13 376 RV 27 5 3 Trump +4
ABC News/Wash Post 9/7 - 9/10 821 RV 33 7 3 Trump +13
CNN/ORC 9/4 - 9/8 474 RV 32 7 2 Trump +13
Monmouth 8/31 - 9/2 366 RV 30 8 2 Trump +12
PPP (D) 8/28 - 8/30 527 RV 29 6 6 Trump +14
Quinnipiac 8/20 - 8/25 666 RV 28 7 5 Trump +16
CNN/ORC 8/13 - 8/16 466 RV 24 5 5 Trump +11
FOX News 8/11 - 8/13 381 LV 25 10 4 Trump +13
Rasmussen Reports 8/9 - 8/10 651 LV 17 7 4 Trump +7
FOX News 7/30 - 8/2 475 LV 26 6 3 Trump +11
Monmouth 7/30 - 8/2 423 RV 26 6 3 Trump +14
Bloomberg 7/30 - 8/2 500 RV 21 4 4 Trump +11
CBS News 7/29 - 8/2 408 RV 24 6 1 Trump +11
NBC/WSJ 7/26 - 7/30 252 RV 19 9 3 Trump +4
Quinnipiac 7/23 - 7/28 710 RV 20 5 5 Trump +7
Rasmussen 7/26 - 7/27 471 LV 26 7 5 Trump +12
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/25 419 RV 18 7 4 Trump +3
PPP (D) 7/20 - 7/21 524 RV 19 4 3 Trump +2
ABC News/Wash Post 7/16 - 7/19 RV 24 4 2 Trump +11
FOX News 7/13 - 7/15 389 RV 18 4 2 Trump +3
USA Today/Suffolk 7/9 - 7/12 349 LV 17 6 1 Trump +3

So again back to...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-poll-august-slide-227051

And experts who have studied presidential campaigns for decades have concluded that no candidate in Trump’s polling position at this stage of the race has gone on to win the popular vote in modern times

 

[MVP]

Too many facts there, in one ear and out the other.

 

[rico x hood]

No one thought? According to whom? By July 2015, most 'experts' based of polls and a poor Republican field of candidates predicted he would win the primary.

Do you NOT know how to read a poll? The part where it has the candidates name next to a + sign. It means they are winning!

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

CNN/ORC 4/28 - 5/1 406 LV 49 25 19 Trump +24
IBD/TIPP 4/22 - 4/28 397 RV 48 29 16 Trump +19
USA Today/Suffolk 4/20 - 4/24 292 LV 45 29 17 Trump +16
Pew Research 4/12 - 4/19 740 RV 44 25 20 Trump +19
FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5
CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13
The Atlantic/PRRI 3/30 - 4/3 676 RV 37 31 23 Trump +6
IBD/TIPP 3/28 - 4/2 388 RV 38 31 19 Trump +7
McClatchy/Marist 3/29 - 3/31 444 RV 40 35 20 Trump +5
Pew Research 3/17 - 3/27 834 RV 41 32 20 Trump +9
PPP (D) 3/24 - 3/26 505 LV 42 32 22 Trump +10
FOX News 3/20 - 3/22 388 LV 41 38 17 Trump +3
Bloomberg 3/19 - 3/22 366 LV 40 31 25 Trump +9
Monmouth 3/17 - 3/20 353 RV 41 29 18 Trump +12
CNN/ORC 3/17 - 3/20 397 RV 47 31 17 Trump +16
CBS News/NY Times 3/17 - 3/20 362 LV 46 26 20 Trump +20
Quinnipiac 3/16 - 3/21 652 RV 43 29 16 Trump +14
Rasmussen Reports 3/16 - 3/17 719 LV 43 28 21 Trump +15
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 3/3 - 3/6 397 LV 30 27 22 Trump +3
ABC News/Wash Post 3/3 - 3/6 RV 34 25 13 Trump +9
CNN/ORC 2/24 - 2/27 427 RV 49 15 6 Trump +33
IBD/TIPP 2/19 - 2/24 400 RV 31 20 7 Trump +11
Rasmussen Reports 2/21 - 2/22 697 LV 36 17 12 Trump +15
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 404 LV 36 19 8 Trump +17
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 2/14 - 2/16 400 LV 26 28 11 Cruz +2
CBS News 2/12 - 2/16 581 LV 35 18 11 Trump +17
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 358 LV 35 20 7 Trump +15
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 602 LV 39 18 6 Trump +20
Quinnipiac 2/2 - 2/4 507 RV 31 22 3 Trump +9
Rasmussen Reports 2/3 - 2/4 725 LV 31 20 6 Trump +10
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 531 LV 25 21 5 Trump +4
IBD/TIPP 1/22 - 1/27 395 RV 31 21 2 Trump +10
CNN/ORC 1/21 - 1/24 405 RV 41 19 1 Trump +22
ABC News/Wash Post 1/21 - 1/24 356 RV 37 21 2 Trump +16
FOX News 1/18 - 1/21 405 LV 34 20 4 Trump +14
Monmouth 1/15 - 1/18 385 RV 36 17 3 Trump +19
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 1/9 - 1/13 400 LV 33 20 3 Trump +13
CBS News/NY Times 1/7 - 1/10 442 LV 36 19 2 Trump +17
IBD/TIPP 1/4 - 1/8 414 LV 34 18 2 Trump +16
FOX News 1/4 - 1/7 423 RV 35 20 2 Trump +15
CNN/ORC 12/17 - 12/21 438 RV 39 18 2 Trump +21
Quinnipiac 12/16 - 12/20 508 RV 28 24 1 Trump +4
FOX News 12/16 - 12/17 402 RV 39 18 2 Trump +21
PPP (D) 12/16 - 12/17 532 LV 34 18 2 Trump +16
ABC News/Wash Post 12/10 - 12/13 1002 A 38 15 2 Trump +23
Monmouth 12/10 - 12/13 385 RV 41 14 3 Trump +27
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 12/6 - 12/9 400 LV 27 22 2 Trump +5
CBS News/NY Times 12/4 - 12/8 431 LV 35 16 3 Trump +19
USA Today/Suffolk 12/2 - 12/6 357 LV 27 17 2 Trump +10
IBD/TIPP 11/30 - 12/4 394 RV 27 13 2 Trump +12
CNN/ORC 11/27 - 12/1 445 RV 36 16 2 Trump +20
Quinnipiac 11/23 - 11/30 672 RV 27 16 2 Trump +10
FOX News 11/16 - 11/19 434 RV 28 14 2 Trump +10
ABC News/Wash Post 11/16 - 11/19 373 RV 32 8 3 Trump +10
PPP (D) 11/16 - 11/17 607 RV 26 14 3 Trump +7
Bloomberg 11/15 - 11/17 379 RV 24 9 3 Trump +4
FOX News 11/1 - 11/3 -- 26 11 4 Trump +3
McClatchy/Marist 10/29 - 11/4 426 RV 23 8 4 Carson +1
Quinnipiac 10/29 - 11/2 502 RV 24 13 3 Trump +1
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/25 - 10/29 400 LV 23 10 3 Carson +6
IBD/TIPP 10/24 - 10/29 402 RV 28 6 1 Trump +5
CBS News/NY Times 10/21 - 10/25 575 RV 22 4 4 Carson +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/15 - 10/18 400 RV 25 9 3 Trump +3
Monmouth 10/15 - 10/18 348 RV 28 10 1 Trump +10
ABC News/Wash Post 10/15 - 10/18 RV 32 6 2 Trump +10
CNN/ORC 10/14 - 10/17 465 RV 27 4 3 Trump +5
FOX News 10/10 - 10/12 398 LV 24 10 1 Trump +1
CBS News 10/4 - 10/8 419 RV 27 9 2 Trump +6
PPP (D) 10/1 - 10/4 627 RV 27 7 4 Trump +10
IBD/TIPP 9/26 - 10/1 377 RV 17 6 4 Carson +7
USA Today/Suffolk 9/24 - 9/28 380 LV 23 6 2 Trump +10
Pew Research* 9/22 - 9/27 496 RV 25 6 1 Trump +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/20 - 9/24 230 RV 21 5 6 Trump +1
FOX News 9/20 - 9/22 398 LV 26 8 4 Trump +8
Bloomberg 9/18 - 9/21 391 RV 21 5 4 Trump +5
Quinnipiac 9/17 - 9/21 737 RV 25 7 2 Trump +8
CNN/ORC 9/17 - 9/19 444 RV 24 6 2 Trump +9
CBS News/NY Times 9/9 - 9/13 376 RV 27 5 3 Trump +4
ABC News/Wash Post 9/7 - 9/10 821 RV 33 7 3 Trump +13
CNN/ORC 9/4 - 9/8 474 RV 32 7 2 Trump +13
Monmouth 8/31 - 9/2 366 RV 30 8 2 Trump +12
PPP (D) 8/28 - 8/30 527 RV 29 6 6 Trump +14
Quinnipiac 8/20 - 8/25 666 RV 28 7 5 Trump +16
CNN/ORC 8/13 - 8/16 466 RV 24 5 5 Trump +11
FOX News 8/11 - 8/13 381 LV 25 10 4 Trump +13
Rasmussen Reports 8/9 - 8/10 651 LV 17 7 4 Trump +7
FOX News 7/30 - 8/2 475 LV 26 6 3 Trump +11
Monmouth 7/30 - 8/2 423 RV 26 6 3 Trump +14
Bloomberg 7/30 - 8/2 500 RV 21 4 4 Trump +11
CBS News 7/29 - 8/2 408 RV 24 6 1 Trump +11
NBC/WSJ 7/26 - 7/30 252 RV 19 9 3 Trump +4
Quinnipiac 7/23 - 7/28 710 RV 20 5 5 Trump +7
Rasmussen 7/26 - 7/27 471 LV 26 7 5 Trump +12
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/25 419 RV 18 7 4 Trump +3
PPP (D) 7/20 - 7/21 524 RV 19 4 3 Trump +2
ABC News/Wash Post 7/16 - 7/19 RV 24 4 2 Trump +11
FOX News 7/13 - 7/15 389 RV 18 4 2 Trump +3
USA Today/Suffolk 7/9 - 7/12 349 LV 17 6 1 Trump +3

So again back to...

Jesus Christ, we literally lived through it. You posting all these polls after the fact. No one took his candidacy seriously. Then he started climbing the polls. People then likened it to a Herman Cain-esque jump. But it never dropped. Then people thought he'd fizzle out because of his rhetoric. Bur he didn't. Then people started dropping out and people thought with a smaller field people would coalesce around an establishment type, but they didn't. Field kept getting smaller and Trump stayed on top. Then they started saying because of his weak ground game and small war chest he wouldn't be able to.keep campaigning. He stayed on top. The Super PACS started donating to everyone but Trump to try and stop him, people thought that'd work. Nope. Then it was just Cruz and Trump and people wereally convinced the party would coalesce around him. Negative. Then it was all that voodoo delegate math and brokered convention talk and people thought that'd stop Trump. But it didn't, and now here we are.

And every time I said people, I meant Expert. So like I said, nobody thought he'd get the nomination until he actually got it. The only expert I know of that predicted early on was John Podesta.

So miss me with all that expert talk because they don't know ****. This isn't an ordinary election cycle.

 

[deleted]

There is a major flaw in thinking that once someone is wrong that they'll always be wrong

 

[Belgium]

I guess this is how the hardcore Trump supporters feel about muslims 

And the comments on this post 

Kinda scary how large that cesspool of a subreddit is. And these people are likely to attend his rallies in large numbers.

 

[rickyrobot]

Jesus Christ, we literally lived through it. You posting all these polls after the fact. No one took his candidacy seriously. Then he started climbing the polls. People then likened it to a Herman Cain-esque jump. But it never dropped. Then people thought he'd fizzle out because of his rhetoric. Bur he didn't. Then people started dropping out and people thought with a smaller field people would coalesce around an establishment type, but they didn't. Field kept getting smaller and Trump stayed on top. Then they started saying because of his weak ground game and small war chest he wouldn't be able to.keep campaigning. He stayed on top. The Super PACS started donating to everyone but Trump to try and stop him, people thought that'd work. Nope. Then it was just Cruz and Trump and people wereally convinced the party would coalesce around him. Negative. Then it was all that voodoo delegate math and brokered convention talk and people thought that'd stop Trump. But it didn't, and now here we are.

And every time I said people, I meant Expert. So like I said, nobody thought he'd get the nomination until he actually got it. The only expert I know of that predicted early on was John Podesta.

So miss me with all that expert talk because they don't know ****. This isn't an ordinary election cycle.

 

Bill's panel of "experts" sure is perceptive.

Look at the disbelief. Listen to the laughter. And yet, here we are.

(P.S. I happen to love Bill Maher, went to a live taping a few months ago 

)

 

[rico x hood]

There is a major flaw in thinking that once someone is wrong that they'll always be wrong

Bruh the pundits and experts based their opinions on previous trends and experiences. This election is unprecedented in every way. They were wrong in the primaries because there was nothing on record to base what was happening on. And it's the exact same thing in the election.

I keep telling people that no matter whether Trump wins or loses hes completely turned everything we all thought we knew about politics on its head. There will be books and new campaign strategies in the future based on the Trump model.

 

[whywesteppin]

That video is from June.

Based on Huffington Post "trendlines," the last time Trump was not leading in the Republican primary was June 29, 2015. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary

Given how volatile the primaries are historically, it's actually quite impressive that Trump was in the lead so consistently. Let me say that another way: if someone in 2116 looks back at 2016, the most surprising thing of the Republican primary he'll see is how little changed over 9 months of campaigning.

At the end of the day p), the experts were wrong. But the polls were not.

Lastly -- like I said before, the general election is not prone to the volatility of the primaries. We don't have 17 candidates who we barely know. We have 2 candidates who have received more exposure in the past year than almost anyone in history.

Can things change? Of course. But Rico, you're sounding like a New Yorker who every draft night or pre-season talks about how the Knicks will win the championship. Just admit that things don't look good for Trump by every objective measure (independent of what any expert says). Impossible though? No. We all recognize how unconventional Trump is.

 

[deleted]

There will definitely be books written about this campaign and they are going to make a lot of people a lot of money, but I don't think they'll have as much of a favorable interpretation of Trump's strategy as you're thinking.

His tactics worked in the Republican primaries, sure, but right now he's showing that he can't step out of that zone to draw in a more diverse base.

 

[whywesteppin]

There will definitely be books written about this campaign and they are going to make a lot of people a lot of money, but I don't think they'll have as much of a favorable interpretation of Trump's strategy as you're thinking.

His tactics worked in the Republican primaries, sure, but right now he's showing that he can't step out of that zone to draw in a more diverse base.

Yup. I think history will show that Trump exploited a special situation (17 candidates, none of them strong, hijacking of the Republican party by a vocal minority, explosion of social media, etc.) and didn't rewrite campaign theory.

The most lasting impact will be the growth of social media to replace traditional television ads, but Obama will be remembered as the one who first took advantage of social media on a large scale. Running on personality, as an outsider, as a businessman, as a nationalist, as a xenophobe, etc. have all been done before, although I do think it was exceptional that he had so much success in 2016 America, so that will be studied for years to come.