***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[whywesteppin]

pence obviously subscries to the big lie approach. pos

 

[Kimchi Papi]

^ modus operandi for the koch bros & the gop...

 

[everysingletime]

Thinking back on it, if Pence wasn't lying and he was just speaking on issues I disagree on, I would let him speak.

But if the stuff he's saying are lies, I'd interrupt instead of letting the public be misinformed. For a great majority of voters the stuff they're hearing from the debates are their only source of information. They're not going to bother looking up candidates and fact checking them, or reading papers and ****

America is lazy

 

[Kimchi Papi]

More from ninja's mans & em at FiveThirtyEight...

Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters

Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.

But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys.1 He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/

Labor day reset.... Post debate reset... Wait for the wikileaks...

Edit - Kaine's mike drop moment last night was when he talked about racial bias in law enforcement. Totally out classed that beady eyed fool. Only thing he could come up with was a story about his uncle.

 

[sundoobie]

In this day & age, you need the LGBT vote, the immigrant vote, the minority vote, & the youth vote.

Agree with everything you said.. however the issue will always be in every election especially during the midterms, are these voting blocs going to actually vote? That's always the problem and the GOP are capitalizing that they stay home on election day which is probably why they don't address these groups, and only cater to their base. In some cases Republicans are changing legislation to make it harder for these groups to vote.

Yes everyone in their right state of mind can probably conclude Trump is a village idiot, but why is it we don't really get much analysis on whether a Clinton Administration will be successful or not? Remember we have a Republican Congress currently meaning Clinton can promise but will she deliver?

Look at her top promises...

-Eliminate tuition" for in-state students at public colleges - estimates of $350 billion over 10 years and requires Congressional and State Government approvals - highly unlikely

-Immigration reform - pointless promise because Obama has been trying at this for the past 7 years. Supreme court even blocked Obama's executive order.

-Public Option on ACA - again Congressional approval - highly unlikely.

-Taxes - Congressional approval yet again

-Federal Min Wage - Congressional approval yet again

-Gun reform - Nothing to even talk about here considering the powerful NRA

-Infrastructure spending - Congressional approval and if she can't pass her tax reform, than this is pointless

Then when you think of our military spending and wars... it's very likely that our country will be at war at some point in the next 4 years due to her Neo-Conservative allies and hawkish foreign policy. The one positive of Clinton is she will place a progressive in the SC and hopefully confirmed by a Democratic majority in the Senate.

Bottom line... the spotlight shouldn't just be on Clinton but also the battleground Senate races in 2016. It is crucial for the Democrats to take a majority in the Senate to confirm the SC appointee (60 votes requirement). The House will most likely remain with a Republican majority.

 

[whywesteppin]

It's sad. The Republicans and NRA have been effective at mobilizing gun-horny / small **** insecure voters by convincing them that their gun rights will be jeopardized by the Democrats. Even though I haven't heard any Democrats promoting any policies that would take guns away from the average person.

On the other hand, Republicans have outright said they will enact policies that will be directly harmful to LGBT communities, immigrants, minorities, and women. In some cases, these are life or death / existential policies that Republicans want. Yet I don't think these groups turn out to vote in the same numbers and with the same single-issue mentality that many white male gun-loving Republicans do, even though there is no real threat to them.

 

[Belgium]

The NRA has also proven itself to only care about white gun rights. Whenever a black man's gun rights are violated they're silent as the grave. But let it be a white man and they'll make sure the whole nation knows about it.
In these police incidents where black men were carrying legal firearms with permits but still got arrested or shot, the NRA is nowhere to be found.

 

[Kimchi Papi]

Keep in mind, Nate Silver has been near perfect in his voting forecasts. He correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states during the 2012 presidential election and 49 out of 50 states in 2008.

If this indeed bares out, Hilary will have a democratic senate to work with in her first term. I think she will be able to accomplish enough to make a second term all but certain.

 

[MVP]

We can only hope.

 

[RustyShackleford]

The Atlantic endorsed Hillary for President. The only other times they have endorsed someone for President was Lincoln (because of slavery) and LBJ (because of Goldwater). Let that sink in or a second.

The ripped the fat man to shreds in the endorsement. LINK

In its founding statement, The Atlantic promised that it would be “the organ of no party or clique,” and our interest here is not to advance the prospects of the Democratic Party, nor to damage those of the Republican Party. If Hillary Clinton were facing Mitt Romney, or John McCain, or George W. Bush, or, for that matter, any of the leading candidates Trump vanquished in the Republican primaries, we would not have contemplated making this endorsement. We believe in American democracy, in which individuals from various parties of different ideological stripes can advance their ideas and compete for the affection of voters. But Trump is not a man of ideas. He is a demagogue, a xenophobe, a sexist, a know-nothing, and a liar. He is spectacularly unfit for office, and voters—the statesmen and thinkers of the ballot box—should act in defense of American democracy and elect his opponent.

You should check out the The LBJ/Goldwater endorsement. The is interesting/disgusting how much the Goldwater situation sounds like the position we are today. LINK

Here is the Lincoln one which I have not read. LINK

 

[dragicon]

Keep in mind, Nate Silver has been near perfect in his voting forecasts. He correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states during the 2012 presidential election and 49 out of 50 states in 2008.

If this indeed bares out, Hilary will have a democratic senate to work with in her first term. I think she will be able to accomplish enough to make a second term all but certain.

I was listening to one of the guys who works for 538 on the keeping it 1600 podcast the other day. The dude said that if most of the polls show a 1-2% margin for clinton on election day, pretty much anything can happen and he wouldn't be shocked one way or the other. However, he said that if she has something like a 5+ percentage margin on the polls, it would be very surprising to him for her to lose.

 

[Belgium]

Still blows my mind how Nate Silver essentially predicts the future. Almost flawlessly too

 

[dragicon]

Still blows my mind how Nate Silver essentially predicts the future. Almost flawlessly too

If you're interested in that type of stuff, I would def recommend listening to the podcast. The guy goes into how they get their numbers (on the surface at least)

 

[deleted]

Y'all just wait for that last minute nuclear ad blitz!!

 

[Kimchi Papi]

I was listening to one of the guys who works for 538 on the keeping it 1600 podcast the other day. The dude said that if most of the polls show a 1-2% margin for clinton on election day, pretty much anything can happen and he wouldn't be shocked one way or the other. However, he said that if she has something like a 5+ percentage margin on the polls, it would be very surprising to him for her to lose.

See I disagree with this school of thought. I've said it many times & I'll say it again. Polling & analytics don't do an accurate job of gathering intell on minority & immigrant voters. My brother who was a long time director in the telemarketing/polling world also confirms this.

This info was badly under reported in the last presidential election & it was a big part in helping Barry win when all the polling had Romney ahead.

Repped Rus.... That quote you bolded sums up exactly how I feel. Everything chubby aka male sarah palin stands for is un-American.

We believe in American democracy, in which individuals from various parties of different ideological stripes can advance their ideas and compete for the affection of voters. But Trump is not a man of ideas. He is a demagogue, a xenophobe, a sexist, a know-nothing, and a liar. He is spectacularly unfit for office, and voters—the statesmen and thinkers of the ballot box—should act in defense of American democracy and elect his opponent.

 

[biggie62]

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20161005PD205.html


So how soon until Foxxcon brings all their manufacturing plants into the U.S. for their production for the North American and South American demand? And here we have people debating about bringing manufacturing jobs back? Please, only manufacturing jobs in the U.S. will be for oversight engineers and janitors.

 

[Chopper]

You should check out the The LBJ/Goldwater endorsement. The is interesting/disgusting how much the Goldwater situation sounds like the position we are today. LINK

Crazy how far we have not come. 

 

[Kimchi Papi]

- 31 of the 50 governors are republican.
- 247 of the 448 seats in the house are republican.
- 54 seats of the 100 seats in the senate are republican.
- State houses controlled by a Republican majority: 33 (State houses controlled by a Democratic majority: 16) *As of 10/1/16.
- 4 out of the 8 justices on the Supreme Court are republican.

And the republicans & their nominee are complaining about the direction of this country... Real talk...

 

[dragicon]

- 31 of the 50 governors are republican.
- 247 of the 448 seats in the house are republican.
- 54 seats of the 100 seats in the senate are republican.
- State houses controlled by a Republican majority: 33 (State houses controlled by a Democratic majority: 16) *As of 10/1/16.
- 4 out of the 8 justices on the Supreme Court are republican.

And the republicans & their nominee are complaining about the direction of this country... Real talk...

Clearly it's obama's fault.

 

[whywesteppin]

with these latest endorsements, i wouldn't be surprised if fox news comes out endorsing Hillary.

 

[RustyShackleford]

http://www.vox.com/conversations/20...ican-party-david-daley-karl-rove-barack-obama

Liberals need to wake the **** up, and do it really soon. We love to complain about nothing getting done, yet stay home and allow these fools on the right to finesse the system. We stayed home in 2010 (a census year ), and 2014 and that allowed for the GOP to rig the House in their favor for at least a decade.

But you will hear people say **** like "Obama didn't do anything".

The 2020 election will be really important because it is a census year as well.

The Dems win the Congressional popular vote but that means absolutely nothing. Gerrymandering is a massive issue, one many liberals seem oblivious too. Even though some Northern districts a rigged in the Dems favor, gerrymandering hurts the Dems a ton.This especially hurts black communities because it strips the black population in the South of proper representation.

The Democratic base usually votes are lower rates, especially in non presidential elections which makes matters worst.

No matter how much the "system" pisses you off. You only make things worst by not voting. The Dems need a massive turnout to ever win the House in the next decade, but in mean time there should be no GOP senators, or governors, in power in any Blue State. None

Things will only get better when people cut the third party/protest vote, or the "I'm not voting" steez. You're doing exactly what the right wing wants you to do.

 

[whywesteppin]

as predicted, team Hillary is using all pence's lies from the debate against trump: http://www.npr.org/2016/10/05/496691508/mike-pence-says-trump-never-said-that-well-he-did

deplorable. simply deplorable.

 

[quell]

 

[Kimchi Papi]

New polling data just updated on ninja's site...

Here's the current status of the swing states.

- North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - 59.2% Clinton.
- Nevada (6 electoral votes) - 63.4% Clinton.
- Florida (29 electoral votes) - 63.5% Clinton.
- Iowa (6 electoral votes) - 51.6% chubby aka male sarah palin.
- Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - 80.7% Clinton.
- Ohio (18 electoral votes) - 53% Clinton.
- Colorado (9 electoral votes) - 78.3% Clinton.
- Wisconsin - (10 electoral votes) 82.9% Clinton
- Michigan (16 electoral votes) - 82.6% Clinton.
- New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - 76.7% Clinton.
- Virginia (13 electoral votes) - 86.9% Clinton.

 

[MVP]

time for Trillary to close this thing out on Sunday. Pence sealed his fate possibly. I wonder if one of the town hall participants will ask the fat man why he lies so much.