The 67-63 2014 CLEVELAND INDIANS season thread (at CWS): Swisher out for the season.

kevin cleveland

kevin cleveland

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Key additions:

Michael Bourn
Nick Swisher
Trevor Bauer
Brett Myers
Drew Stubbs
Mark Reynolds
Mike Aviles
Terry Francona

Key subtractions:

Who cares

Non-roster invites:

Daisuke Matsuzaka
Ryan Raburn
Scott Kazmir
Matt Capps
Jeremy Giambi
Jeremy Hermida

Top prospects:

Francisco Lindor
Bauer
Dorssys Paulino
Mitch Brown
Danny Salazar
Jose Ramirez
 
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Speed! Defense! It's a miracle.

I wasn't big on the Swisher add, but like it more now with Bourn in the fold. And I love that signing. Pretty productive off-season in total.

I expect nothing to come of Dice-K and Kazmir, but certainly don't mind the invites.

Ben Francisco is still kicking, huh?

I see some talk that Stubbs could be dealt now, but I'd like to keep Stubbs. More versatility and a capable body. I'd prefer to see Swisher at 1B/DH and go with Brantley/Bourn/Stubbs in the OF.

- Do you think they still can make a move on Lohse?
- How long before Bauer is in the rotation?
 
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With the roster right now who gets the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation?  It's great to see some deals finally being made in the offseason.  Bourn is a great add and I liked the Swisher move, if nothing else it brought two legit names to the team.  

When do single game tickets go on sale?  Cant wait for the opener. 
 
I wasn't big on the Swisher add, but like it more now with Bourn in the fold. And I love that signing. Pretty productive off-season in total.

I see some talk that Stubbs could be dealt now, but I'd like to keep Stubbs. More versatility and a capable body. I'd prefer to see Swisher at 1B/DH and go with Brantley/Bourn/Stubbs in the OF.
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All of that.

- Do you think they still can make a move on Lohse?
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Who knows. No one expected Bourn to happen.

- How long before Bauer is in the rotation?
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I want to say right away, but my guess is that he starts in Columbus.

A lot depends on Carrasco being ready to go from day one, too. If he's good, he's probably the fifth starter for now. It not, maybe they throw Bauer in there.

Masterson
Jimenez
Myers
McAllister
Carrasco/Bauer

That could obviously be better. Maybe they plan on trying to outscore everyone.

If they were going to move anyone for a starter, I would probably prefer it to be Cabrera. Brantley or Stubbs aren't getting you a good enough one.

When do single game tickets go on sale?
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25th.
 
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Indians Improve Starting Rotation, Indirectly.
The Cleveland Indians pulled a dual surprise by signing both Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, and while they’re unlikely to complete the trifecta by signing Kyle Lohse, the recent Bourn acquisition has people thinking about the Indians as a dark-horse American League playoff contender. Everybody likes an underdog, the Indians have put themselves in the headlines, and they do possess an abundance of talent. The Indians, at least, look to be something approximating a .500 ballclub, and given the error bars that come with win-total projections, the playoffs aren’t out of the question.

When you look closer, the Indians seem to be well below the Tigers, and about on par with the Royals and the White Sox in the Central. Despite everything the Indians have done, people still question the starting rotation, and for legitimate reasons. In my Tuesday chat queue there were several concerns expressed regarding the Indians’ starters, and consensus seems to be that the Indians don’t have enough pitching. They did add Brett Myers and Trevor Bauer, but they still have a rotation fronted by Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez.


It’s true that starting pitching isn’t a Cleveland team strength. If it were, the Indians would look a lot better than they do, and we wouldn’t be talking about them as a dark horse. The Indians have not dramatically and directly upgraded their rotation with new personnel, and God knows what Masterson and Jimenez will deliver. What the Indians have done is upgrade their staff indirectly, especially with the Bourn signing. This is basically a post about the Indians’ team defense.

A year ago, the Indians finished last in baseball in UZR, at -57 runs. By DRS, they were third-worst, at -51 runs. Not coincidentally, the Indians’ pitchers posted a collective 4.40 FIP but a 4.79 ERA. The staff was already mediocre, but the team defense made it look worse. Given the exact same personnel going forward, one would expect the Indians to regress closer to the mean, but the Indians’ defense was a problem.

This offseason, the Indians have brought in Bourn and Swisher, and they also acquired Drew Stubbs in a trade. Bourn is one of the game’s premier defensive center fielders, Stubbs was one of them, too, and Swisher is a versatile sort who’s adequate at a few positions. I think it’s worthwhile to attempt a quick and dirty Indians team UZR projection.

We can skip over catcher, as UZR doesn’t make an attempt. My suspicion is that Carlos Santana is an overall negative, but he’s not changing, and we’ll just write this off as a catcher mystery. Lucky for us, they didn’t make any changes at catcher, so assuming something like similar performance seems pretty safe. Let’s move on.

First base looks like it could be occupied by both Swisher and Mark Reynolds, with Reynolds maybe playing more often. Swisher’s record is fine; Reynolds’ record is worse. Put together, I think we can give these guys a -5. Understand now that we’re estimating, and of course these targets are truthfully ranges. A -5 is more like 0 to -10.

Second base will once again be Jason Kipnis, and because I don’t want to get into too much detail, I’ll just say that I’m giving Kipnis and the other second basemen an overall -5 as well. When we move on to shortstop, with Asdrubal Cabrera, I come up with a -10. Cabrera is a good hitter, for a shortstop. It’s a good thing that Cabrera is a good hitter, for a shortstop. In the field, he’s a problem.

Third base looks to be a platoon between Mike Aviles and Lonnie Chisenhall, and as the lefty batter, Chisenhall should play more often. Here, I came up with another -5. You’re free to disagree with any of these numbers, but you’re probably not going to disagree by a huge margin.

So the infield is still something of a defensive mess, observed overall. That’s without even considering Santana’s work behind the plate. But the outfield is where the Indians could shine. Let’s group the corner positions together. These should be occupied by Swisher, Stubbs, and Michael Brantley. Swisher is getting older, but his defensive track record in the outfield is pretty good. Stubbs’ numbers with Cincinnati were great, and he played in the middle. Brantley has been a center fielder, but the numbers don’t speak kindly of him. A corner position seems to be more up his alley. As a group, I’m putting these guys at +5, although it could be more like +10 depending on what you think of Stubbs and Brantley in easier positions. I’m trying to be conservative.

And then there’s Bourn in the middle. Bourn’s UZR last year was an insane +22. Before that, it was -6, and before that, it was +19. If you look at the UZR and the DRS figures, I think +10 is a reasonable estimate for this coming season. We have a good idea that Bourn is outstanding in the field, and he shouldn’t lose his legs over the course of one offseason.

Combine all those numbers and you get -10 runs. Of course that could be 0 runs, or -20 runs, or anywhere in between. There’s lots of error, here, and we don’t know how often the backups will play, or how the team will take advantage of its flexibility. But while the team defense doesn’t project to be incredible, it does project to be an awful lot better than it was a year ago, on the order of tens of runs. If you just want to use the numbers as presented, then the Indians could go from a -57 UZR to a -10 UZR. That’s a difference of 47 runs saved.

As you know, baseball isn’t about individual components, like power hitting or starting pitching. It’s about overall value, based on run production and run prevention. There are concerns about how the Indians’ pitchers will contribute to the run prevention, but the defense should make a stronger contribution, helping the pitchers out. To say that the Indians’ rotation isn’t good enough is to say that the Indians will allow too many runs. But what the front office has done is add the equivalent of one or two front-of-the-rotation starters.

That’s a skewed way of looking at it, but think about what a 47-run upgrade looks like. Steamer projects Masterson for a 4.12 ERA in 201 innings. Subtract 47 runs and now you have a 2.01 ERA projection. Masterson and Jimenez are projected for 4.12 and 4.46 ERAs. Subtract 20 runs from each and you’re left with 3.22 and 3.51. The advantage of better defense doesn’t apply to just one or two guys; it works across the board, a little bit for everybody. But the run prevention situation wouldn’t look better had the Indians upgraded to a couple strong starters, and put together another lousy defense behind them. Better pitchers generate more outs and throw more innings. Better defenders allow the pitchers to generate more outs and throw more innings.

The Indians’ rotation is still not good in isolation, and everybody’s got question marks. Bauer, as much of a phenom as he is, can’t be trusted yet to throw enough strikes, and I don’t need to review the issues with the major guys. We don’t know how Myers is going to re-adjust to the rotation, and this is a reason why the Indians still don’t seem like a probable playoff contender. But the Indians’ pitchers are going to be more effective going forward, because now the Indians’ pitchers will be pitching in front of these guys:



Make your rotation 40 runs better and you make your run prevention 40 runs better. Make your defense 40 runs better and you make your run prevention 40 runs better. The Indians might not have brought in a ton of new pitching talent, but they are providing aid for the talent they have.


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Indians Use Michael Bourn to Fill Hole at DH.
Last night, the Indians signed Michael Bourn to a four year, $48 million deal. It’s less than he was asking for, but still a pretty significant investment for a low power/high strikeout guy headed into his thirties. I’ve already written about my questions over how much of his value he’ll retain, both on offense and on defense, but 4/48 isn’t paying Bourn to retain most of his skills. At that price, the Indians just need him to be an average or slightly above average player for the life of the deal, which gives him a lot of room to decline and still be worth the contract.

As others have already written, this was a deal worth doing for the Indians, even if they aren’t necessarily expecting to keep up with the Tigers in 2013. Value is value, and adding good players to the organization at reasonable prices is something every team should be interested in doing. But, perhaps more than just Bourn’s role on the team, the more interesting story is how the acquisition of one of the game’s elite defensive players actually solves the void the Indians had at DH.

When the Indians signed Nick Swisher earlier in the winter, the presumption was that he would replace Shin-Soo Choo in right field. With Bourn now in the fold, however, Swisher’s positional flexibility looks to be a significant advantage for Terry Francona, as Swisher can now flex between first base and right field depending on the best fit for each day.

The platoon that we’re all used to is the left/right tandem, with two batters sharing a starting job based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. With Jason Giambi and Drew Stubbs, the Indians have the makings of a non-traditional DH platoon, with Swisher and Reynolds playing the field against RHPs to open up DH for Giambi and then Stubbs pushing Reynolds to DH and Swisher back to first base against LHPs. With Mike Aviles and Lonnie Chisenhall, they can also run a left/right platoon at third base as well, and the Indians anti-lefty line-up could actually be one of the best in baseball, especially when you factor in the defense that comes from having Brantley, Bourn, and Stubbs playing side-by-side-by-side.

But, opposing pitcher handedness isn’t the only variable off which a manager can choose to platoon. With a league best defensive outfield alignment in play when Stubbs is in the line-up, the Indians can now also choose their line-ups based on their own starting pitcher’s fly ball tendencies. Justin Masterson and Brett Myers will benefit less from having three center fielders behind him than Trevor Bauer or Zach McAllister, so on days when their ground ball starters take the hill, the Indians can now put an extra bat in the line-up. Meanwhile, the staff’s fly ball pitchers can be supported with perhaps the game’s best group of fly catchers, giving both better opportunities to succeed by pitching up in the zone.

The left/right platoon should take precedence over the ground ball/fly ball platoon, but there’s room to run both simultaneously within the same season. And the Indians, as an organization, have already shown that they’re willing to maximize the value that platooning offers. Last year, Cleveland’s hitters had the platoon advantage in 70% of their plate appearances, the highest mark in the league. The average team had the platoon advantage in just 55% of their plate appearances, and over 6,000 plate appearances, that works out to an extra 900 trips to the plate where the Indians had the left/right advantage. The Indians were also number one in platoon advantage plate appearances in 2011 as well.

Part of that is the product of having switch-hitters like Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana, but the Indians have also been one of the most open organizations to job shares, and they’ve built a roster that should give Francona a lot of options to mix and match. They now have three switch-hitters in the middle of their order, and can complement those three with either five additional LH bats against a RHP or three additional right-handed bats against a LHP. And, depending on who starts for them each day, the line-up can also balance outfield defense versus the addition of a better hitter.

This isn’t the kind of thing that is going to vault the Indians to the top of their division, but it does give them the chance to maximize the value of most of the players on their roster. Having complementary pieces gives the Indians the ability to get the best from each of their players without exposing them to opportunities where they are more likely to fail, and their willingness to mix-and-match will give them the best chance to maximize value from a roster that comes up a bit short in the talent department.

Don’t look at Bourn as displacing Brantley or Stubbs. While it might not be intuitive, the Indians actually filled their DH hole by signing one of the game’s best defensive players. Having a flexible roster and a manager willing to move pieces around makes that possible.


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Nah, I just like the team/players they've had recently :lol:

Check your inbox too...from like three weeks ago :smh:

Plus, you have Bauer now! He raps and puts out diss tracks about M Montero :lol:
 
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Lineup for the opener tomorrow, which could be the regular one:

Bourn
Cabrera
Kipnis
Swisher
Brantley
Santana
Reynolds
Chisenhall
Stubbs

Left
Switch
Left
Switch
Left
Switch
Right
Left
Right

I always expected it to be Bourn, Kipnis, Cabrera, Swisher, Santana, Reynolds, Brantley, Chisenhall and Stubbs, but Tito did say that he wants balance.
 
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Glad to see this thread back again Kev :pimp:

BUT....Kipnis batting third?! What the..

.but i do like the left/right switch in the lineup.
 
Make or Break season for Carlos Santana. I'm tired of hearing what he could be and his potential. I need to see 280 30 90 this year
 
Brantley is out 10 days after getting spiked in the arm. Needed stitches.

How about this: Dating back to 2008, Bourn is first in all of baseball in stolen bases (257), and second in infield hits (175) and bunt singles (59). Unreal numbers.

5-0 start to the spring, with a vast majority of important players playing really well. But we aren't going to get too into that yet.
 
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Yeah can't think to into the nice start to Spring ball. I am liking it a lot so far, tho.

6 minutes to sell out Opening Day? :pimp:

Tribe games are going to be fun especially at the start of the season and hopefully into the summer... fall .... :nerd:
 
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Beyond beers and dogs, prices have been dropped up to 25 percent for nachos, pretzels, popcorn, pizza and bratwursts. The cost of a soda refill has been slashed to $2, as well.
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Your boy went vegetarian four months ago, though, so I'm more excited to see what their meatless menus are like now. :lol:

I can't wait to hear the excuses for poor attendance if it happens again this season. You got the biggest offseason in team history, cut concession prices, and tickets are still super reasonable... Time to show up or shut the !+%* up.
 
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No excuses this year.

Also Asdrubal said he wants to be a "Tribe for life" and was "shocked" about trade rumors this winter
 
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