The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion

[antidope]

Tell ya what, I really like what Orlando is doin, but I was really, really off on what Golden State has been doin. We all knew Steph could shoot, but I did not know he could play this great. And having Klay shoot damn near as well, with Jack just being himself, and suddenly the Barnes we all expected from NC, with Bogut and Lee (tho out now) ......... damn. I did not see this coming.

Curry, Klay, and Barnes can still get better even.

Jerry West have anything to do with this team anymore? Who is getting the credit for the roster building?

Theyre likely going to get hit with the curse of good drafting, they wont be able to keep all three.

Manu

CP what are your thoughts on GK winning CotY

 

[pmatic]

I'm just glad they missed on their lottery picks in 2007, 2008 and 2010.

 

[kevin cleveland]

Love those last two articles.

I'm leaning more and more towards wanting the Jazz to bring Millsap back.

Ginobili understands and has understood better than anyone that your two-point shots should be close to the basket, and otherwise, you should just be shooting threes.

 

[pmatic]

Playoff plus/minus studs

Wayne Winston, who I would identify as a pioneer of adjusted plus/minus and a delightfully plainspoken dude with ties Mark Cuban -- but who is technically the John and Esther Reese Professor of Decision Sciences at Indiana University -- was kind enough to share his playoff ratings.

These are not to be interpreted as MVP rankings. But they are, for your viewing pleasure, a cleverly recorded ranking of who has been on the court when his team has played the best in these playoffs.

The one conclusion Winston takes from this: The Thunder should play Nick Collison as much as possible in place of the plus/minus challenged Kendrick Perkins.

The numbers are per 48 minutes, and adjusted for the other players on the court.
Chris Andersen -- plus-29
Mike Conley -- plus-24
Shane Battier -- plus-23
Pablo Prigioni -- plus-23
Nate Robinson -- plus-19
Stephen Curry -- plus-18
Nick Collison -- plus-18
Tyson Chandler -- plus-16
Klay Thompson -- plus-15
Lance Stephenson -- plus-15
Kevin Durant -- plus-14
LeBron James -- plus-13
Dwyane Wade -- plus-13
Raymond Felton -- plus-11

Link

 

[antidope]

BIRDMAN BIRDMAN!!!!!!

 

[CP1708]

CP what are your thoughts on GK winning CotY

Same as always. He did the radio tour this morning, he was on Mike and Mike, then on Dan Patrick, same **** every ******g year.

"Oh well, I know we didn't make it out the first round every year for a decade, but we made the playoffs every year for a decade....."

I'd fire the **** out of that guy for saying stuff like that.

EVERY

YEAR


I get if you feel that in 04, or 07, or a year here or there, he says that SAME SPEECH, Every, single, offseason. WHEN, does someone hit the damn light switch?

The dude said they had a nice run last season.......cuz they went 7 games instead of 6.

I mean, come on. I joke about the fact that Pop did his winning In Tim's prime and when that was over, Pop's been getting knocked off each year like a normal coach. Even with all his saving minutes in November, and resting guys, and all that, come playoff time, he at least, at least wins a round or two here and there. Forget the 4 titles, since 08, Pop has almost as many series wins as Karl's ENTIRE career, without Pop even reaching a Finals. Just 08-13. Win a round here, win 2 rounds there, have the occasional first round exit, GK is 1 and done, 1 and done, 1 and done, 1 and done, etc etc etc etc etc etc etc.........

And the media/fans/bloggers do nothing but praise the man. It's unreal to me. If Karl won a title and then had a bad decade, ok, I get that at least. Once upon a time, etc. But this ain't that. Even his Finals run was a fluke, the Bulls damn near swept them before he adjusted and the Bulls really just wanted to win on their home floor.

The guy lost to Del Harris led, pre Shaq, pre Kobe, post Magic Lakers. With Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp. Read that line again, George Karl lost in the first round, with Homecourt, to the no Shaq, No Kobe, No Magic, Del Harris led Lakers. He shoulda been fired on the spot right then, right there.

 

[JD617]

Since the other thread is a disaster:

[h2]Don’t be Surprised by the Shooting[/h2]
News - Posted by: Ethan Sherwood Strauss

<img class="alignnone" src="http://www.nba.com/media/act_klay_thompson.jpg" alt="" width="270" height="240" />
Look, I’m staggered. The Denver series at least made sense. The Nuggets were bad at defending 3s, the Warriors were great at shooting them. What happened was less an upset than a series that Golden State probably wins again if you run it back. In theory, this meant that a playoff matchup against the almighty Spurs would ruin everything. San Antonio gives up the 5th least 3-point attempts in basketball. Fun’s over, go home. A silver and black team’s about to remind Oakland of everything the Raiders aren’t.

It hasn’t been that simple, though. The Warriors are getting their 3s and the series is tied. For the vast majority of these 2 games, Golden State has led. And I’d say “Golden State has led comfortably,” except, Game 1 renders almost any lead less comfortable than a couch made from chicken wire.

What the hell is happening? Well, it would seem that the overall season stats didn’t take specific matchups into account. Within those matchups we spy something bizarre: San Antonio’s three best players are hurting them defensively.

Warriors are Weird

First, some thoughts on the Warriors. This is a weirdo team. They shot better than 40% from distance this season, all without the aid of regular dribble penetration. Unlike Miami, OKC, San Antonio, and New York, Golden State didn’t rely on a slasher or a 4-out (four 3-point shooters) approach to create these looks. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson tended to launch off floppy action sets, and transition opportunities. And yet, after the All-Star break, Curry and Thompson combined to hit more 3-pointers per game than 10 teams. If Steph and Klay were a franchise unto themselves, they’d be tied with the Bulls at 19th for most 3s after the All-Star break. Two guys. The duo needs little room and uses little conscience when letting it fly.

So, some of the 3-stopping principles San Antonio used prior to this might not be applicable. Take Stephen Curry. Most smart defenses are used to worrying about easy catch-and-shoot 3s. The problem is that Curry, he whose dribble evokes the cocking of a shotgun, is quite comfortable firing off the bounce.

The Duncan Adjustment

This is connected to San Antonio’s Tim Duncan issue. In his prime, Duncan hedged masterfully when defending the high screen and roll. Few big men were better when flashing out to scare guards above the 3-point line. He doesn’t quite have that mobility now, and the Spurs adjusted for it recently. Duncan now sinks back around the paint on screens, much like Andrew Bogut does for Golden State. That’s fine against a lot of teams, but it’s death when facing Stephen Curry. He just dribbles around Bogut’s screen and makes the net dance.

This is what happened in Game 1 and San Antonio decided to tinker with plans in Game 2. The result was that Duncan waddled up high and Curry knocked a 3 over him anyway. Later in the game, Duncan approached and Curry drove right past. Duncan is still a plus player, and forcing Curry to drive is still the right call (Curry did have a mediocre Game 2), but does San Antonio really want Timmy running around, expending even more energy while playing heavy minutes?

Where to Park Parker?

The Duncan issue is minor compared to the Parker issue, though. There’s no safe place for him to hide on defense, really. I don’t believe TP to be a poor defender, but here’s where we get into how Golden State is weird and how they goofy foot your defense. Parker’s skill is quickness and strength, which is great for stopping dribble penetration. Too bad that Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are far more interested in just shooting over the top of him. So much of this series so far reminds me of the Indiana Jones “Sword vs. Gun” scene. The Warriors are very, “Why sweat when you can just pull a trigger?”

In Klay’s case, he’s recently developed a knack for posting on smaller guards. I hated when the Warriors started doing this, but Thompson is surprisingly effective at taking fadeaways over guys like Mo Williams. Leave it to Golden State to make a commonly bad process into a good one in the specific.

Since Parker can’t hide on Thompson (as Game 1 showed), he’s getting put on the even larger Harrison Barnes. I’m fine with this strategy from a San Antonio perspective…until they send help and the 3-point defense breaks down. Also, the other problem with this tactic is that creaky Manu Ginobili then finds himself marking the frenetic, peripatetic Klay Thompson off the ball. Poor Manu got burnt to ashes in the second quarter of Game 2. Thompson, by the way, had himself quite a night in going 8-of-9 from deep with 34 points. Even more staggering: His facial expression never changed.

Klay Thompson also brings the added benefit of causing Tony Parker problems on offense. With his size and span, Klay is the prototypical Parker-marker, and so far, he’s quelling San Antonio’s best offensive player. When you step back from this series, it’s mildly hilarious that a Thompson-Parker crossmatch is a disadvantage for San Antonio.

Shooting: Unleash the Threast

It’s also mildly hilarious that the Golden State Warriors are playing this well against the San Antonio Spurs, just on the face of things. It’s funny, but there is sense to be made from it. There’s much talk of, “HOW ARE THE WARRIORS SHOOTING LIKE THIS,” even though this is, largely, how the Warriors shoot. Golden State averaged a shade over 40% from deep this year. In the playoffs, they’ve shot a shade over 40% from deep. Against the Spurs, it’s crept up to 41.5% from distance. Hello East Coast, hello national viewers. This is how the Warriors splash.

The difference is that they’re shooting more from deep than ever. Over the season Golden State tried 19.9 3-pointers per game; In the playoffs, they’ve attempted 24.9.

Remember, the Warriors were shooting a magnificent regular season percentage while not operating with a lot of space. When Lee went down, GSW went small, spread the floor and unleashed The Threast. The result was George Karl accepting his Coach of the Year award while looking glum. The result was a road win in San Antonio. The result was Golden State beating eight Las Vegas spreads in a row.

Is it sustainable? Over the long haul next season, probably. Within this series, who knows? Also, the Spurs missed a lot of open 3s on Wednesday night. Brace yourself for those falling soon. And get hyped for the East Oakland Madhouse on Friday night.

Stephen Curry is not a “kid” 

One digression regarding this sudden national media coverage of the Warriors: Stephen Curry is not a “kid.” I keep hearing him referred to this way, even though Steph has a wife, a child, and a four year track record in the NBA. While I understand that he looks quite young, the dude’s older than Kevin Durant. While I understand that average sports fan stopped thinking about him after Davidson, Stephen Curry did indeed age in those intervening years. I know, because I wrote about a lot of bad things that happened in those years. Really bad things. Things like Keith Smart benching Stephen Curry for Acie Law a lot. Let us celebrate Curry’s tooth-and-claw rise from the muck, for once.

Dwarf Quarter

The Warriors shrunk again in the 4th quarter, nearly (again) squandering a big lead. In the series, they’re shooting 30.6% from the field in the final stanza. Some of this is standard regression (You can’t shoot wonderfully all the time), and some of it is just poor execution. I believe that Golden State has hurt themselves by slowing down towards the end and trying to exert control  over possessions. Maybe it’s tough to stay loose and liable to launch in the nervy moments, but the Warriors could stand to try it. My heart can only take so many Jarrett Jack isolations.

Link.

 

[JD617]

Big Questions for a Day Off: Can the Knicks and Thunder Overcome Their Offensive Struggles?
 

---

By Zach Lowe

featurephoto1-largephoto1The first round started as a boring chalk-fest, with six of eight series going to 2-0, and only the Nuggets-Warriors promising to double as both competitive and aesthetically pleasing. It transformed into madness, of course, with four Game 6s on a single delightful Friday night.

The conference semifinals have skipped right to the promising stage, with all four series tied at 1-1 as the league takes a breather tonight. Let’s use this blessed off day to do those errands we’ve been postponing, break out that vacuum, hit the gym, spend time with our loved ones, and take stock of where these four series might go from here — starting today with the two series that began first, but for some reason don’t resume until Saturday.

more
[h3]Pacers-Knicks[/h3]
1. Has New York found its offense again?

Would you look at that! Turns out, when you cut down on the isolations, run a lot of pick-and-rolls, and move the ball from side to side, you can score efficiently! Who knew?

The Knicks in this series, and especially in their shocking Game 2 destruction of the Pacers, have rediscovered what made their offense the league’s third-most efficient outfit in the regular season. After devoting a totally irresponsible 27 percent of their possessions to isolation plays — mostly godawful Carmelo Anthony jumpers — against Boston, the Knicks have finished just 11 percent of their possessions via isolation against the league’s stingiest defense, per Synergy Sports. They’ve gone back to a pick-and-roll heavy attack, and even better, they’ve recommitted themselves to running a variety of pick-and-rolls, and to running two or even three on the same possession.

Sometimes the main pick-and-roll occurs on the side of the floor, perhaps with Anthony as the ball handler, with the goal of getting into the middle of the court, drawing the defense, and kicking to the other side:



Sometimes Anthony is the screener, an alignment that has confused the Pacers’ D and resulted in some unseemly breakdowns:



The goal isn’t necessarily to score on the pick-and-roll itself; if anything, the Knicks offense got out of balance in this way during Game 1, with little ball handlers attacking the giant Roy Hibbert in the paint for impossible shot attempts that left the inexplicably entitled Madison Square Garden crowd chanting “THESE REFS SUCK!” on every solid Hibbert challenge. New York in Game 2 found the right balance between using the pick-and-roll as a direct scoring attack, and using it as a vehicle to bend the Pacers’ defense until an open shot — preferably a 3-pointer — emerged somewhere on the floor. (Bonus points if the open shooter was not Jason Kidd, who wants zero part of shooting. He almost begins his passing motion before even catching the ball, turning his hands sideways, palms out, like a restaurant customer waving away a plate of food).

Constant ball movement can break even the league’s best defenses, and the Knicks in particular have caught Lance Stephenson ball-watching a few times — as he does here while his man, J.R. Smith, slides to the right corner for an open 3-pointer around an Anthony/Tyson Chandler pick-and-roll:

The Pacers are distinct from Boston in that they don’t have any one defender ideally suited to guard Anthony; Boston had three such defenders, or at least three reasonable facsimiles of such a defender, and while Paul George is already one of the league’s 10 best overall defenders, he’s facing a size disadvantage and carrying a very heavy scoring burden on the other end. None of Indiana’s power forwards — David West, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Pendergraph — have the combination of foot speed and balance that Boston starting power forward Brandon Bass used to corral Anthony. Melo has blown by all three of those defenders off the dribble when Indiana tries to buy George a break from the job, including during Pendergraph’s disastrous (and mercifully short) stint in the third quarter of Game 2 — a stint that started New York’s cascading run.

Indiana also lacks Boston’s long history of overloading the strong side of the floor without actually trapping or over-helping. If New York uses its isolations and Anthony post-ups judiciously, it should be able to work its way to open looks.

2. Who wins the transition matchup game?

We’ve gone over this before: George is defending Melo when the Knicks have the ball, but Melo is defending West on the other end of the floor. That creates some confusion during chaotic transition moments — and Indiana’s disastrous turnover issues have provided plenty of those — with either a smaller New York player getting stuck on West, West getting stuck on Melo, or just general chaos. New York won this battle in Game 2 by sniffing out mismatches and exploiting them. Check out this still from the fourth quarter, in which the Knicks’ entire roster is frantically trying to alert Smith, holding the ball in the right corner, to the fact that D.J. Augustin is stuck guarding Anthony on the left block:

New York eventually swung the ball there, Hibbert jumped onto Anthony (lesser of two evils and all), and Anthony promptly dusted him for a missed lay-in that Chandler dunked on a put-back.

The Pacers are also seeking out early offense, mostly by having West run the floor hard to carve out position on the block before the Knicks can set their defense. Anthony has done a nice job fronting West, and New York can make entry passes a very dicey proposition if they have a second defender prepared to challenge any lob over Anthony. But if the Pacers can catch the Knicks early, they can find clear passing lanes.

However …

3. Can Indiana stop giving the ball to the other team?

The Pacers had the league’s second-worst turnover rate in the regular season, and they’re coughing it up even more often in the playoffs. They’ve been a total mess against the Knicks, tossing away entry passes, throwing the ball several rows into the stands, and generally falling on their ***** in the face of New York’s aggressive traps — of both post-ups and pick-and-rolls.

The Knicks have very little respect for Indiana’s ball handlers and the ability of the Pacers’ big men (other than West) to make plays from the perimeter. They’ve blitzed both George Hill and George aggressively on the perimeter, sometimes with two defenders chasing them out toward midcourt, and George has committed several turnovers trying to split those defenders. (Remember: Frank Vogel told me midseason he previously banned George from splitting defenders because of the bundle of turnovers that had resulted.) And if those guys manage to pass out of the trap to the open big man who just screened for them, the Knicks are thrilled watching those bigs try to make plays on the move; Hibbert is wily but slow, and Hansbrough/Ian Mahinmi might be the league’s worst pair of passing big men. They combined for 63 assists the entire season, with Mahinmi’s 27 more than doubling his previous best. Mahinmi nearly reached the upper deck with one misguided pass, and I suspect Vogel was searching for a better playmaker and a potential Anthony defender when he tapped Pendergraph for Mahinmi’s minutes in the third quarter.

Indiana either needs to clean this stuff up or rejigger its offense in a way that encourages sounder play.

4. Who figures out their rotation sooner?

The Pacers, to the surprise of zero people who have paid them any attention for two years, have not been able to find a reliable lineup beyond their powerful starting unit. That lineup is plus-58 for the postseason, and the Pacers are -46 in all other minutes; those numbers are plus-10 and minus-29 through two games in this series. No other Indiana unit has logged more than 19 minutes total in eight playoff games, and only one has appeared in even six of those eight games, per NBA.com.

There is no right answer here, only lineups that randomly work on some nights, or lineups that do a bit less sabotage than others. This is where the Pacers miss Danny Granger, who happens to be a very skilled post entry passer.

For the Knicks, this question is about the potential return of Amar’e Stoudemire. Smith is in a terrible slump, and Mike Woodson has talked about limiting his minutes if that slump continues, presumably giving more time to Kidd, Pablo Prigioni, and Iman Shumpert — or even going big with both Kenyon Martin and Chandler, though Woodson is rightfully resistant to that course. Shumpert has never played better two-way ball than he has over New York’s last four games, and Prigioni was so brilliant in Game 2 that the MSG crowd was chanting his name — chanting Pablo Prigioni’s name! How cool is that? — as a way of urging Woodson to keep him in the game.

But Smith will heat up again, and he’s been a crucial cog all season. He’ll play. I’ve addressed the Stoudemire issue at length before, so I won’t belabor it here: He should probably get spot minutes when Anthony (and perhaps Chandler as well) are resting, and nothing more.

 
[h3]Grizzlies-Thunder[/h3]
1. Which team finds an offense first?

This has been the most predictable series of the four, a defensive struggle trending toward the Grizzlies’ grit-and-grind style. We knew Memphis would tilt its entire defense at the otherworldly Kevin Durant, just as the Rockets did after Russell Westbrook’s injury, only the Grizz have perhaps the league’s best team defense. The Thunder’s predictable offense has predictably come crashing down as a result, averaging only 98.5 points per 100 possessions through two games — nearly a dozen points below Oklahoma City’s season average, and more than 10 points below what the Thunder managed over six games against Houston.

The Grizz are basically ignoring every Thunder player other than Durant, hoping either to coax Durant into very tough shots …



… or trap him hard and force lesser players to air-ball floaters or bonk layups:



This strategy will surrender the occasional wide-open corner 3-pointer for Reggie Jackson or the annoyingly hot Derek Fisher, but it has been a win on balance for the Grizz. I’m not sure Oklahoma City has an answer here, beyond praying Durant continues to be completely ridiculous, and that Fisher, Jackson, Thabo Sefolosha, and the rest of the backup singers make just enough shots. The Thunder have continued to introduce some new tweaks to their tired sets, including Jackson mimicking Westbrook’s slip of the Thunder’s pet pindown screen for Durant, but the Grizz are smart enough to sniff out these tweaks right way. The Thunder need something closer to a renovation, and they don’t have time for one now.

This is a challenge for Memphis, too. The Grizz are a league-average scoring bunch facing a generally solid defense with the kind of athleticism that gives Memphis problems. The Grizz have lured Oklahoma City into a few Clippers-esque breakdowns on Mike Conley/Zach Randolph pick-and-rolls, where Randolph cuts to the hoop, Conley kicks the ball to Marc Gasol near the foul line, and both Thunder big men take a step toward Gasol’s threatening jumper — leaving Z-Bo free at the rim:



But the Thunder have cleaned this up by having their big men switch assignments mid-play, so no Grizz big goes unchecked:



Beyond that, Memphis just has to keep pecking at the margins. Conley has shown he can get in the lane and confuse Oklahoma City’s bigs, especially Serge Ibaka, by disguising which way he wants to take a pick-and-roll until the very last second. Randolph has generally bullied Ibaka in the post, Gasol is a basketball artist whose genius knows no bounds, and Memphis has seen hints that Tayshaun Prince can squeeze out some points by posting up a smaller player when the Thunder briefly play three guards, or by drawing a switch on snug pick-and-rolls with Gasol.

2. Will any rotation tweaks work?

Two things are obvious already: (1) Hasheem Thabeet should not be playing, and (2) the Thunder need to go small immediately whenever Memphis rests either Gasol or Randolph. Those minutes are precious. Scott Brooks wasted nearly six such minutes in the first half, when Lionel Hollins staggered rest periods for his two bigs while the Thunder kept two of their big men on the floor — including Thabeet. To say the Grizz are ignoring Thabeet on defense is almost an understatement; the Thunder might as well play Sebastian Pruiti on offense on those possessions.

Memphis has historically gone small right along with Oklahoma City, and Brooks has been rightfully cautious about staying small when both Gasol and Z-Bo are on the floor. But both trends reversed themselves in Game 2. Memphis stayed big, and the Thunder exploited that small-versus-big dynamic by running Randolph — hiding on the smaller Sefolosha — in a series of pick-and-rolls:



They also risked having Durant defend Gasol for a short stretch, and though Gasol eventually punished that matchup, the Thunder still won the big/small battle by spreading the floor and hitting 3s. They should try to do so again.

And in the realm of Things That Will Never Happen, Brooks should consider starting Nick Collison for Kendrick Perkins, or at least giving Collison more of Perkins’s minutes. The Collison-Ibaka pairing has logged just 13 minutes together the entire playoffs, and just nine minutes in this series against a team that plays two big men at all times. The Ibaka-Perkins pairing has logged 47 minutes already in this series and 131 in the playoffs, per NBA.com. This is preposterous.

Look, Perkins has value. He’s a good post defender, a solid (illegal) screener, and he leads the league in scowling and complaining about very obvious fouls he just committed. He’s also a solid passer for a big man, and that has helped Ibaka nab some easy buckets over the last two seasons.

But he’s a walking turnover who cannot do basic things on offense, such as: catching the ball, shifting his feet without traveling, and placing the ball into the basket. Collison isn’t Gasol, but he’s a heady passer, a brilliant dribble handoff partner for any competent perimeter player, a reliable jump-shooter, and capable of catching a defense off guard by faking one of those handoffs and driving to the rim.

Collison is also the Thunder’s best option defending Randolph, who has historically struggled badly against Collison, dating to the 2011 series between these teams. Ibaka doesn’t appear quite ready for the Z-Bo assignment, and his mobility and shot-blocking might work better on Gasol.

Perkins is going to play, and he has value in this series as a defender. But the Collison-Ibaka pairing should not playing one-fifth the number of minutes that the Perkins-Ibaka duo plays — especially with Westbrook gone. The Thunder’s starting lineup with Westbrook contained something like 2.75 threatening offensive players out of five (with Ibaka counting for 0.75), and that is down to something like 2.0 or 2.25 with Jackson in Westbrook’s place. The impact of playing a total offensive zero increases within that reality. Perkins is nearly a complete offensive zero. Collison is not.

(And as a random side note marrying these two issues: the Jackson–Kevin Martin–Durant-Sefolosha-Collison lineup is promising, but has logged less than one minute in this series. The same group with Ibaka in Collison’s place hasn’t played yet, per NBA.com.)

For the Grizz, the rotation issues are pretty marginal and come mostly on the wing, where Hollins has to balance offense and defense with Tony Allen, Prince, Jerryd Bayless, and Quincy Pondexter. The emerging Pondexter is really the only one among those four who provides consistent production, or at least the threat of it, on both ends, though Prince (as mentioned above) could do some damage in this series, and Allen is taking advantage that no one is guarding him to gleefully destroy the offensive glass.

Hollins can get a little quick with the Allen hook, though it’s frustrating to watch Allen’s man help everywhere on the floor. Bayless is a minus defender who has probably seen a bit too much time on Martin, but the damage has been minimal so far. This bears watching, but it’s minutiae compared to what Brooks is facing.

My official picks in these series, as a reminder: Grizzlies in 6, Pacers in 7. Nothing has swayed me so far.
 

Link.

 

[pmatic]

Since the other thread is a disaster:

The grass is greener here.

Edit:

Warriors giving Jazz a blueprint but not where you think

Are the Golden State Warriors the model for the Utah Jazz to follow for the upcoming season. Not in their collection of draft picks such as Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes. Not in way they surrounded their young players with veteran role players Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry who have willing embraced their roles. Not in their fabulous late 1st round and 2nd round additions of Fetus Ezeli and Draymond Green.

Instead the Warriors have done something remarkable on the defensive end of the floor. This year the Warriors defensive rating (pts allowed per 100 possessions) is 102.6. A year ago it was 106, two years ago it was 107.6 and three years ago it was an abysmal 109.4 only to be outdone by the previous years 110.1.

One of the league’s worst defensive franchises has transformed themselves into one of the best. The last two seasons the Utah Jazz have been the 21st ranked defensive team in the NBA. They must find a way to move into the top 15 in the NBA and even the top 10 if they want to be a team that is still playing this time of year.

The 4 best EFG% (weighs three point shooting) defenses in the West are the 4 teams still playing right now. In 2009-10 the Warriors allowed an EFG% of 52.5% this year they allowed just 48.6%.

The addition of Andrew Bogut has been only a small portion of this transformation. Mark Jackson has young group that has bought into his defensive system. The ability to always have a 7 footer on the floor in Biedrins, Ezeli or Bogut is a must and young athletic wings are equally important.

The real area of improvement for the Warriors has been their defensive rebounding. For the last 4 seasons they allowed opponents to garner 31% of their own misses for another possession. This year’s opponent only got 24.5% of their offensive rebounds.

Changing from a bad defensive team to a good defensive team is a very difficult thing to do in the NBA, but the Jazz need to see how the Warriors have achieved this and emulate in the upcoming seasons.

Link

 

[al3xis]

You get the feeling Zach Lowe won't be writing for too much longer. He's not innovative really in any way, but he's awfully good expressing well thought out, logical thoughts.

 

[pmatic]

Steve Kerr is ready to hire him as soon as he gets hired by an organization.

 

[datznasty]

I wish somebody would do a writeup on Perkins. I mean it's obvious (like writing a 5 page article about water is wet), but the more stats on it you look at at once, it just gets more amusing.

Dude has a 43 TOV% That's almost half.

 

[CP1708]

Wy have Thursday off, and give 2 series long rest, and the other 2 series regular rest? I don't get that.

If they wanted these teams for Friday night, then no reason to have an off night on Thursday, that don't make any sense does it?


Joey gon throw out at least 3 Bulls and 2-3 Heat tonight. Zero doubt.

 

[pmatic]

I'm not sure about the Knicks-Pacers, but the Grizzlies-Thunder have been playing nearly every other day for the last two weeks whereas the Spurs, Warriors and Heat got rest (Bulls, not so much).

 

[pmatic]

@jphanned Steph just 1-16 FG in the series when guarded by Green. RT @haralabob Danny Green makes Steph work.

@jphanned Steph is 1-16 FG (6.3%) in the series when guarded by Danny Green, 27-48 (56.3%) when guarded by anyone else.

 

[pmatic]

Conley a difference-maker on both ends

When the Memphis Grizzlies traded Rudy Gay to the Toronto Raptors on Jan. 30, they traded away their No. 1 option in late-game situations.

Enter Mike Conley Jr.

Conley, who had arguably the best game of his career in Memphis’ Game 2 win against the Oklahoma City Thunder in which he finished with 26 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists, has capably filled Memphis’ clutch-time void.

It was Conley with a team-high six points (and five rebounds) when the game was within five points in the final five minutes of the Grizzlies’ win Tuesday.

Because it's been gradual, Conley’s emergence as a go-to guy doesn’t immediately jump out. But his splits over the course of the season demonstrate his progress.

Conley has led the Grizzlies in scoring (16.4), assists (6.4), 3-pointers (52), and free throw makes (12 and attempts (154) since the Rudy Gay trade. He averaged 13 points and 5.8 assists before the deal.

And in situations within five points in the final five minutes, Conley has led the team in scoring (49) since Gay was dealt.

Those 49 points ranked 11th in the league since Jan. 31, just behind Dirk Nowitzki and ahead of Russell Westbrook –- probably not company one might have expected Conley to be among just a season or two ago.

Conley's development as a one-on-one player might have helped facilitate his role as a late-game scorer.

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Conley led the league in points per isolation (among those with at least 100 isolation plays). That’s not a misprint –- Conley finished ahead of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Tony Parker this season.

He scored at least a point on 51 percent of such plays this season, a major jump from the 26 percent scoring rate he posted a season ago.

But Conley’s offensive prowess still takes a backseat to the strongest part of his game: his defense.

In the regular season, the ball-hawking guard ranked first among guards in defensive win shares, a metric devised by basketball-reference.com to estimate the wins contributed by a player based on his defensive merits.

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And a look at Memphis’ splits based on Conley on and off the court, in the chart on the above, helps illustrate just how important he has been to the Grizzlies this postseason, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

From an offensive standpoint, the team has seen dips in assists and in the percentage of points scored in the paint with Conley off the floor.

But on the defensive side, Conley’s presence has been the difference between a solid defensive team (98.1 defensive efficiency with Conley on court) and a sieve (120.8 defensive efficiency with Conley off court).

Conley’s rise has certainly helped carry Memphis this far, but it’s his sustained success Memphis needs if it wants to advance.

Link

 

[CP1708]

BHZ has been right about him all along. He might have been a tad early with the top 10 declarations, but in the end, he's been proven right.

He is the epitome of nothing flashy, just nice and steady. Funny, but he's actually underpaid already.

 

[CP1708]

If OKC wants to win this series, Durant has to go nuclear.

Although.......

Derek Fisher in the playoffs from 3 16 for 26. Cuz, Fisher.
This guy been dead for 4 years and still hitting 3's in the playoffs. Like a damn summer hobby or something to him.

 

[pmatic]

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@AlexKennedyNBA In Game 3, the Thunder shot 31.1% with Marc Gasol on the floor, compared to 48.1% with Gasol on the bench.

 

[datznasty]

Wow. DPOY justified, although I have to still call it somewhat of a coincidence since our guys are just choking. Flat choking. Ibaka is 35% since that miss in the Houston series compared to 57% before. Look at Thabo's percentages for example, he can't even knock down corner 3s anymore compared to 52 and 40 percent in the regular season http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=200757&SeasonType=Playoffs vs http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=200757

Obviously the Russ effect on everybody but KD, but it's puzzling because they are still getting the exact same looks. Ibaka for example, they aren't even contesting him. Dude you lived off those this season, got yourself 50mil and a c list rnb singer.

Despite getting 0 consistent help from anyone else, KD is still averaging 32 points, 12.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.7 steals and 1 block. Imagine if he decides to superteam up with somebody at some time in his career or our owners quit being cheap and somehow get a Kevin Love or somebody in here

 

[worldbeefreeg]

You mean a superteam like the one they just gave up on when they traded James Harden?

 

[CP1708]

I don't think I'll ever understand why they broke up Russ, Harden, Ibaka, Durant so early. Unless they liked Lamb a lot and expected a top 3 pick from Toronto.

 

[pmatic]

I always figured they liked the deal long-term and didn't want Harden being a free agent to become a distraction.

 

[datznasty]

You mean a superteam like the one they just gave up on when they traded James Harden?

Yea, don't be mad at me. I didn't do it.
And CP, cheap owners. Even in their daily business operations, they do things that reak of cheapskateness like trying to trick season ticket holders into not attenidng the parties. They didn't want to, or only minimally anyways be tax payers. You could have kept James one more year (this one), he would be a restricted FA afterwards, and you still have control over the situation. He was never a threat to walk for nothing, contrary to reports.

I still don't know who to blame more though, Presti or the owners. Because if he wanted to max James and they say no I'm not paying more than X, than he has to work with that. I still argue some of the other trades might have been better than Kevin Martin, who I knew from day 1 was going to be buns, but even with that Kevin Martin and Scott Brooks have a pre existing relationship since Brooks was an assistant in Sacramento. But GS would have given us Klay Thompson for him but they were going to force us to take either RJeff or ABied's contract. I would have done it. You have Klay for more yrs at rookie scale, then after 1 yr of whoever you take (I'm takig Jefferson), now they're an expiring and you can flip them.

There was also the well publicized deal for either the #2 or #3 picks.

FYI, the Toronto pick for this draft we got from the deal is #12. :x

 

[IATT]

I don't think I'll ever understand why they broke up Russ, Harden, Ibaka, Durant so early. Unless they liked Lamb a lot and expected a top 3 pick from Toronto.

the toronto pick was/is top 3 protected..

but i think it's a combination of liking lamb and his potential AND the idea of what he could be with durant and westbrook (hitting the open shots that they create consistently).. i also think they thought martin would be more consistent with his scoring (not running hot or cold like he has so much this season)

also i think some behind the scene stuff had to be factored in with harden.. plus he isnt the purest shooter, which is a little more of what i think they want from that spot if you look at the guys they were targeting in trades (klay, beal and lamb/martin).. plus i think they want a guy who they will be able to sign after their rookie contract to a team friendly deal (harden said he wanted the max that the thunder could offer, which was 4 years 60 mill.. even though if i remember correctly the final offer was just 4-5 mill below that, so i really wonder if he would have taken the 4 years 60 mill IF it had been offered)

harden worked so well, because he could come in when russ and kd would go to the bench at the same time and there would be no drop off production wise.. and then he worked magic in the pick n roll with collison in that second unit.. and then he also allowed westbrook to play off the ball when those 2 would be on the court together

but we did have spacing problems even when harden was here.. which is why i think they targeted the guys they did when they decided to trade harden.. since there was such an overlap of skills amongst KD, russ and harden.. cause we all know that harden wouldnt get the number of touches and level of control that he now has in houston, even though i think he was underused while with the thunder (as i've said before, KD/russ/harden should all have been in the 35+ mins range.. and the mins should have been structured so that there should have been 2 of the 3 on the court at all times)