The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion

The court been the same size since inception. Same as an NFL field. You can't alter the dimensions of the actual sport itself. What's next, 11 foot rims? 130 yard football fields?

You can move the 3 point line, but alter the entire court? That makes no sense. You change the dynamics of every game, that every other former player never had to deal with, why make these players deal with it now?

What's next, move the free throw line back 10 feet? Or use a rubber ball? Wood backboard? Running clocks? Outdoor gyms, for better homecourt advantages?


You can't alter the NBA court, cuz guys are faster, stronger, bigger now. It would be bad for the game, imo. I'm sure Phil had his reasoning, but that guy just likes chaos, it amuses him. :lol:
 
Expanding the court by a couple feet isn't the same thing as moving the FT line 10 feet or running clocks... stop exaggerating. The NFL isn't an accurate comparison, either... the overall size of the field still gives them plenty of room compared to NBA players on the court.

And how would you expect them to expand the 3 point line without altering the court? The players would have no room in the corners... so either you expand the court.. or you make the corner 3 an even shorter shot compared to other 3 pointers.
 
The NFL isn't an accurate comparison, either... the overall size of the field still gives them plenty of room compared to NBA players on the court.
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How the NFL field still big enough, but the NBA court isn't? It's still 5 on 5, just as it was in the 60's, 70's, etc etc.

You can keep the sides the same distance, and push the arc further back.
 
Asthetically, making the court longer would create a more pleasing, umptempo game, I would be all for it.

That "way it has always been" ideology is stupid and how you get left behind like what is happening to baseball.
 
So like I said, let's raise the rims, and extend football fields too.

There is no reason to change a basketball court. Just because the style of game has changed.
 
I’m not tryin to be a **** about this, I just don’t agree with changes just for fun.

Is the league down? Is revenue down? Ratings? I mean, the game is fine, money thru the roof, bunch of elite talent in the league at the moment, why make changes, just cuz?

Reeks of the NFL switching the draft to 3 days, then 3 days in May, now 3 days in May in LA, then there’s talk about 4 days in May in Chicago, etc etc etc. Changes, just to make more changes. Something that wasn’t even broke.

There’s more 3 point shooting now. So what? Why does that demand the increase for space in the dimensions of the court that has existed from elementary school thru the NBA for 65+ years? One person says it opens up the fast break game more, was the fast break game broken in the 80’s, in the same sized court? Seriously, we just want to see changes, just cuz?
 
Basketball courts are fine as is. No need to change anything. No need to move the 3pt line back either.

Baseball stuff is overblown too. Baseball is fine
 
Welcome back folks.

With the recent news that Steve Nash will be out for the season and likely retiring, here's a tribute to one of the greatest offensive forces ever:
The Singular Greatness of Steve Nash

A few days ago, it was announced that Steve Nash will be missing the entirety of the 2014-2015 NBA season after a flare-up of the nerve problems in his back. Given that Steve Nash has also announced that the 2014-2015 season would be his last in the NBA, this announcement was akin to retirement for the future hall of famer. Nash remains undecided about whether or not he will officially retire (i.e. whether or not he’ll waive his contract for this season), but it’s clear that his playing time is all over.

The revelation that Nash was no longer going to be an active member of the NBA landscape led to a great many thoughts in memoriam of Nash’s incredible career. We here at Nylon Calculus would feel remiss if we didn’t chime in on exactly how unbelievable a player Steve Nash was.

After the announcement, Kevin Pelton at ESPN tweeted an amazing chart, showing that Steve Nash-led offenses were the best in the league from 2002-2010, an nine-year stretch of dominance. I have recreated the chart, including the percent increase by which the Nash-led teams were better than the league average for that season:

Screen-Shot-2014-10-24-at-5.06.30-PM.png


To put that into perspective, we can compare the weighted offensive rating of Nash-led teams (how well they did relative to league average) with the weighted offensive rating of other elite offensive teams, like the 2000 Lakers, 2013 Spurs, or the top three offenses from last year:

NashWeightedO.png


Nash’s offenses, and the fabled Seven Seconds or Less Suns, were so much better than the rest of their league that it makes a mockery of any other offense that we can even conceive of.

When people say that Nash’s teams changed the NBA, that’s what they’re referring to: offenses so good, that they break our understanding of the ceiling of offensive efficiency.

The main critique of Steve Nash’s career, too, leading up to his eventual retirement, has been that he was perhaps the highest profile figure to play the least defense. And that’s fair. He has never been an even good defender. On the other hand, consider just how freaking amazing Steve Nash was on offense:

Steve-Nash-ORAPM.png


Keeping in mind that better than 3.0 ORAPM is All-Star level, and that LeBron usually has ended up around 9, per Jeremias Engelmann’s RAPM stats.

And, for all that, his defense has only fluctuated from “bad,” to “really bad” without ever being anything near disastrous, also per Engelmann’s RAPM. For all his bad defense, in the middle of Nash’s prime with the Seven Seconds or Less Suns, he was still a top-10 impact player in the whole NBA. Ignoring his last season where he barely played double digit games, Nash hasn’t had a below All-Star level offensive impact since 2001.

Screen-Shot-2014-10-24-at-6.14.17-PM.png


Steve Nash was an absolutely transcendent basketball player, to the point where, in spite of our our increased appreciation of defense and it’s impact, Nash’s contribution cannot be besmirched. Or, at least, it shouldn’t be. No one, not even LeBron, has been able to make a team’s offense transcendent just by walking on the court. Nash, in his prime, could do that. With his massive RAPM, incredible team numbers, and an assist rate that often went well over 50%, Steve Nash was the kind of player who genuinely got the best out of his teammates.

And of course, we can’t have a Steve Nash retrospective without bringing up that he has a seriously compelling argument for “greatest shooter of all time.” Of the only 6 players to ever have a 50/40/90 season (or, a season where a player shoots 50% from the floor, 40% from three, and 90% from the free throw line), only Steve Nash and Larry Bird have had such a season multiple times. Larry Legend has done it twice. Steve Nash, three times.

The most amazing thing about the 50-40-90 achievement, for Nash, is the difficulty of the shots he was making. In some cases (Jose Calderon in particular comes to mind), the achievement is gained because the player is really careful to take really open shots. To be that accurate is impressive by itself, but to be that accurate with a high level of difficulty is another thing.

I think that Nash has gotten a reputation among some as the kind of player to just shoot around screens or when spotting up, but Nash took so many really, really difficult shots, and he just nailed them.

And, I mean, look how absurd his shotcharts were on his 50/40/90 or near 50/40/90 seasons:

Steve Nash was an absolutely transcendent basketball player, to the point where, in spite of our our increased appreciation of defense and it’s impact, Nash’s contribution cannot be besmirched. Or, at least, it shouldn’t be. No one, not even LeBron, has been able to make a team’s offense transcendent just by walking on the court. Nash, in his prime, could do that. With his massive RAPM, incredible team numbers, and an assist rate that often went well over 50%, Steve Nash was the kind of player who genuinely got the best out of his teammates.

And of course, we can’t have a Steve Nash retrospective without bringing up that he has a seriously compelling argument for “greatest shooter of all time.” Of the only 6 players to ever have a 50/40/90 season (or, a season where a player shoots 50% from the floor, 40% from three, and 90% from the free throw line), only Steve Nash and Larry Bird have had such a season multiple times. Larry Legend has done it twice. Steve Nash, three times.

The most amazing thing about the 50-40-90 achievement, for Nash, is the difficulty of the shots he was making. In some cases (Jose Calderon in particular comes to mind), the achievement is gained because the player is really careful to take really open shots. To be that accurate is impressive by itself, but to be that accurate with a high level of difficulty is another thing.

I think that Nash has gotten a reputation among some as the kind of player to just shoot around screens or when spotting up, but Nash took so many really, really difficult shots, and he just nailed them.

And, I mean, look how absurd his shotcharts were on his 50/40/90 or near 50/40/90 seasons:

output_CGGjbb.gif


Similarly, check out this visualization of Steve Nash’s typical “hunting grounds,” from staff writer and creator of TeamSPACE, Matt D’Anna. Nash’s dominance from behind the arc is ridiculous, and unparalleled (short of Stephen Curry). That he was also deadly from the elbows and rim meant there was nowhere to hide. Nash was a deadly shooting force from everywhere, and a black hole of gravity, in the same way as Dirk Nowitzki:

NASHSPACE.jpg


I mean, watch this video, and tell me that Nash is being exceedingly measured (apologies for the cheesiness of the package, but the highlights are great):





Nash practiced those difficult shots, so that his patented one foot, off the dribble jumper, and his transition pull-ups were as comfortable as any other shot on the floor. I’m not trying to say that Nash wasn’t careful with his shot selection, he was absolutely methodical. But he took shots that made us go, “there’s no WAY he can make that,” and he still had 3 different 50/40/90 seasons!! That’s inconceivably impressive.

It’s really unfortunate that we have to start the 2014-2015 season on such a low note, with the retirement of one of the greatest to ever play. On the other hand, now is as good a time as any to reflect back on one of the most singularly spectacular offensive talents that the NBA has ever seen.
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http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/10/25/singular-greatness-steve-nash/
 
Cavs will have historic offense

Editor's note: Welcome to NBA Insider Daily! Devoted readers familiar with the "Per Diem" column can still look forward to both Kevin Pelton and Tom Haberstroh this season, and they are joined by fellow Insiders Bradford Doolittle and Amin Elhassan. Every day, one of them will tackle the big topics in the NBA from every perspective including advanced metrics, scouting and reporting.

On the eve of the 2014-15 regular season, it's our last chance to make projections for the upcoming campaign. Having dug into the results of my SCHOENE projection system, here are five surprising outcomes I expect to come to fruition.

1. The Cleveland Cavaliers will set the NBA record for offensive rating

SCHOENE projects Cleveland for a 118.0 offensive rating, which would surpass the best mark since the ABA-NBA merger (117.4 points per 100 possessions by the 2009-10 Phoenix Suns). Nothing that's happened in preseason has changed that optimism. The Cavaliers boasted the best preseason offense, scoring 10.6 more points per 100 possessions than league average. If Cleveland were to maintain that and league offense remains at 2013-14 levels, that would translate to an even better 118.9 offensive rating.

As expected, the Cavaliers have demonstrated a unique ability to dominate the offensive glass while also stretching the floor. They rebounded 32.4 percent of their misses during the preseason; no other NBA team was above 30 percent.

2. The Detroit Pistons will have an above-average defense

The Pistons finished 26th a year ago. Surprisingly, SCHOENE projects an improvement all the way to 12th. In general, teams that change coaches regress to the mean defensively, and new head coach Stan Van Gundy led the Orlando Magic to five top-10 finishes in defensive rating over six seasons.

There also was evidence of a better defense in Detroit last season. When the Pistons played any two of their three frontcourt starters (Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith) together, they allowed 108.9 points per 100 possesssions, per NBA.com/Stats. That defensive rating jumped to 115.1 when all three played together -- a mark that would have been worst in the NBA.

With Van Gundy limiting the minutes for the Drummond/Monroe/Smith frontline, Detroit ranked an impressive eighth in defensive rating during the preseason.

3. The Los Angeles Lakers will have the league's worst defensive rating

At this point, projecting the Lakers last might not qualify as bold. They finished 28th in defensive rating during the preseason, but the two teams behind them (the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder) were contenders saving an extra gear for the regular season. Ditto the San Antonio Spurs, who finished 27th.

The Philadelphia 76ers, the one team SCHOENE projected to defend almost as badly as the Lakers, ranked 12th during the preseason. The Lakers look porous inside and out, and new head coach Byron Scott never finished better than 26th in defensive rating during his three seasons as head coach in Cleveland.

4. James Harden will lead the NBA in points

SCHOENE projects Kevin Durant to lead the league in points per game, but Durant's injury opened the door for Harden to outscore him -- and everyone else -- in terms of total points. Though Harden finished fifth in points per game last season (25.4), Durant isn't the only player ahead of him in that ranking likely to score less this season. Two of the other three (LeBron James and Kevin Love) teamed up in Cleveland, meaning fewer shots to go around. And the New York Knicks' move to the triangle could cut into Carmelo Anthony's scoring average.

During the preseason, Harden averaged 26.3 points per 36 minutes, good for seventh among players who saw at least 100 minutes of action. He and Anthony (26.4 points per 36 minutes) scored at nearly equal rates.

5. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will make more 3-pointers than the Lakers as a team

OK, this is the only one SCHOENE doesn't specifically project. In fact, the Lakers are projected to make more 3s than five other teams. However, the projection system can't account for Scott's desire to avoid outside shots, a 180-degree turn from predecessor Mike D'Antoni.

The Lakers' 3-point numbers went up slightly after they were held without a triple in consecutive preseason games, attempting just eight total in that span. And the return of injured wing Nick Young to the lineup will help, because Young is the only Laker projected to make more than 100 3-pointers. Still, the Lakers attempted 3s on just 12.4 percent of their shot attempts in the preseason, a rate far lower than the 29th-ranked team (Minnesota at 17.4 percent). And though Curry and Thompson played fewer minutes during the preseason than they will in the regular campaign, they combined for 40 triples to 25 for the Lakers as a team.

News and notes

• The preseason leaderboard for wins above replacement player (WARP) by my system:
Preseason WARP Leaders
Player Team Win% WARP
Gordon Hayward UTA .753 1.6
Chris Paul LAC .765 1.5
Jared Sullinger BOS .768 1.5
Klay Thompson GSW .805 1.5
Stephen Curry GSW .810 1.5
Anthony Davis NOH .864 1.5
Jimmy Butler CHI .810 1.3
Trey Burke UTA .675 1.1
Kyle Lowry TOR .786 1.1
Greg Monroe DET .710 1.1

• The two rookie leaders in WARP were both members of the Miami Heat: 2013 second-round pick James Ennis and this year's first-round pick Shabazz Napier, both with 0.6 WARP. K.J. McDaniels of the Philadelphia 76ers and P.J. Hairston of the Charlotte Hornets also both had 0.6 WARP.

• Leaders in individual advanced stats (all minimum 100 minutes): true shooting percentage: John Jenkins, Atlanta Hawks (.826); usage rate: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers (38.2 percent); rebound percentage: Reggie Evans, Sacramento Kings (28.3 percent); assist percentage: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers (13.4 percent); steal percentage: Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls (4.6 percent); block percentage: Samuel Dalembert, New York Knicks (10.0 percent).

• So just what does the preseason mean? I've gotten that question a few times in chats and on Twitter, and figured it was time to update aging studies on the issue. For players, I looked at last year's stats. Preseason performance explains about 28 percent of the variation in regular-season performance, as measured by the per-minute Win% stat (akin to PER). By comparison, SCHOENE projections explain about 62 percent of the variation in regular-season performance among players.

Taking it a step further, I used both SCHOENE and preseason ratings to project performance during the regular season. A regression suggests preseason performance should be about 13 percent of the projection. So it does matter, but not that much. The most any player's projection improves by incorporating preseason play (Mo Williams of the Minnesota Timberwolves had the biggest jump) is a little more than 10 percent.

• At the team level, over the past five full preseasons (not counting the post-lockout season), win-loss record explains about 12 percent of the variation in teams' regular-season records. Preseason point differential is slightly less predictive.

Several years ago, Roland Beech of 82games.com -- now with the Dallas Mavericks -- found that preseason records were less meaningful for teams coming off seasons with 50-plus wins than those that had won 30 games or fewer. For whatever reason, that trend didn't hold over the past five preseasons. There's been almost no correlation between preseason and regular-season record for teams coming off 30-win seasons or worse.

Strong preseasons should still improve our outlook for teams such as the Detroit Pistons and New Orleans Pelicans (5-2), as well as the Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz (5-3), but we're talking about upping expectations by a few wins rather than a major leap. And poor preseasons for the Clippers (2-6), Spurs (2-5) and Thunder (2-6) shouldn't be a concern.
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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11772181/nba-five-bold-predictions-numbers
 
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bhzmafia14 said:
These rankings are based on next season's expectations. A lot of people felt like Davis would be the 3rd best player in the league this season, so its not like this comes as a surprise. Being that he's the only other Western Conference player in the top 10 without another top 40 player on his team, its a little unfair to say he should have the Pelicans in the playoffs this year. There's a chance they can make it, but you're talking about a team that have injury prone players in a tough conference.

Paul has Griffin (vice versa)
Russ has Durant and Ibaka

Go into the top 10 and you have..

Curry has Klay
Harden has Dwight (vice versa)

ANT's next best player is Jrue and he came in a #68 and probably won't be any better than top 50. :lol: . It would be a different story if he was placed in the East, but the West has 8 well established veteran playoff teams with 2-3 teams looking from the outside in.

Using that type of judgment...what should his ranking be if he cannot lead the Pelicans to the playoffs? How do you define that? I thought the ranking would be based on the ability of the player.
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Well done BHZ, thank you.
 
More 2014-2015 NBA Season Win Projections!

Like Andrew Johnson, I did some season projectin’ for the season starting tonight. The basic method was to take ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (RPM) numbers and run them through a simple aging curve and then to project out the season minutes. For rookies, I used my own rookie RPM projections1, which I tweeted out earlier this summer.

After establishing each team’s strength using the RPM and minutes projections, I ran them through the schedule to determine projected records for each team. I was not able to account for back-to-backs or anything of that nature. Also, the team strength is relatively static, which is obviously not a realistic assumption, as teams will be weaker or stronger depending on who is injured or available on a given night and the minutes played will vary for a given game correspondingly. Still, these projections are probably a pretty good look at things, if not terribly different than the general consensus. Here are the results:

Screen-Shot-2014-10-27-at-11.26.12-PM.png


Some observations:

– Brace yourself, Laker fans. The loss of Steve Nash made an already bad roster even worse. Kobe’s +2 projected RPM is actually pretty good, but the Lakers just get way too many minutes from really awful players. Throwing that lot up against the brutal Western Conference results in the worst projected record in the league. Yes, even worse than the Sixers.2

– Subjectively, I expect the Nets and Pacers to be worse than their projections. The Nets are very old and they might fall off worse than even the aging curve suggests. The Pacers have basically no shot creation and lost two of their very best wing defenders. There’s a good chance Frank Vogel, Roy Hibbert, and David West is enough to cobble together a top 10 defense, but their offense is going to stink to high heaven. On the other hand, I’d expect Detroit and Charlotte to over-perform their projections. I’m a very big believer in Stan Van Gundy and Steve Clifford. Clifford has a tough job, though, as the bench talent in Charlotte is very weak. SVG’s Piston’s have talent, he just has to maximize it, and I believe he can do that.

– The Bulls come in at 53 wins, as I boosted Derrick Rose’s projection from the roughly 0 RPM I had it at for a long time, to a rosier3 +1.5 on the heels of his strong performances to close out pre-season. Yes, Rose had an even better4 pre-season last year before struggling for 10 games and then tearing his MCL. On the other hand, last year’s pre-season was heavily reliant on trips to the free throw line relative to this year’s strong showing. Last year, Rose got to the line for 9.43 free throw attempts a game against 12 shot attempts for a free throw rate5 of .785, while this year Rose registered just 4 free throw attempts a game against 11.88 shot attempts for a free throw rate of .337, much more in line with his free throw rates in his last two healthy seasons. 6 Also, I’m a Bulls fan delighted to see Rose back, so sue me7 for trying to be a little optimistic.

– The West is absolutely insane. Literally any of the top 8 teams could win the conference and you shouldn’t be surprised. The projections also don’t figure on any teams rising or falling into or out of the playoff picture, which I basically agree with, all of the basketball cognoscenti’s predictions about Anthony Davis’s world-destroying rise notwithstanding.
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http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/10/28/more-2014-2015-nba-season-win-projections/

I'm pesstimistic on the Lakers, but there's no way they are 19 wins level bad. :lol:
 
I've seen pretty much every major publication list us at the bottom of the West, yet we're the douchebags for predicting this team isn't very good while the optimists hold out hope for homecourt and playoff seedings. :lol:

19 wins and the #1 pick sounds just fine by me. Bring that **** on.
 
I was told he can never be the best player in the league because he's a big. :lol:
 
I used to think that with Shaq/Tim because they can only play inside 12-15 feet.

AD/KG diff types, to me at least. They do "more" than what Shaq/Tim did, overall. Shoot from range, pass from other than block, defend out to 3, etc.
 
JD617 said:
I was told he can never be the best player in the league because he's a big.
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And that KG, Dirk, Timmy were never in the convo for the top spot. 
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I was hesitant on calling AD #3 this year from that convo back in the summer, but ****. Hope he makes me eat those words. 
 
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