The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion

[CP1708]

Thank you.

 

[pmatic]

@Matthew_Tynan The Spurs committed four turnovers tonight. For the whole game. Four. And not one in the fourth quarter.

@johnschuhmann In 290 games since LeBron arrived, Heat had never forced fewer than 6 turnovers. Spurs had 4 tonight.

 

[pmatic]

ESPN the Mag:

No middle ground

OMER ASIK IS a valuable NBA player -- he led the league in total rebounds this season -- but Stephen Curry he ain't. The Houston center took nearly four-fifths of his shots at the rim and still made only 60.5 percent of them, 31st among centers who played at least 20 minutes a game in 20 games or more, according to Hoopdata. Asik lacks the touch of, say, Kevin Garnett, who shot 77 percent at the basket in 2012-13 and was also more accurate on attempts three to nine feet from the rim, 16 to 23 feet away and behind the three-point arc.

Still, somehow, Asik's overall shooting percentage (54.1 percent) was far superior to Garnett's (49.6 percent). In fact, he shot better than all but 10 other players in the entire league. How is that possible? The answer lies in a statistical phenomenon called Simpson's Paradox, which can help isolate who's playing smart basketball and explain why some NBA teams are winning now and others are taking an extended vacation.

Simpson's Paradox is named after Edward Simpson, a British civil servant who worked as a code breaker during World War II. This paradox occurs when you see the same pattern in separate sets of data, only to see that pattern reverse when you combine the data sets. For example, say you and I are placekickers, and you are more accurate on both short kicks and long kicks. But now suppose that this season I attempt almost all of my field goals from 30 yards or fewer, while you try most of yours from 50 yards or more. I'll likely end the year with a better overall percentage. Our rankings will reverse because the frequency of our attempts from each distance affects the data once it is combined and compared. In the same way, precisely because Asik takes almost all of his shots at the rim, while nearly half of Garnett's attempts are long-range jumpers, the big Turk's overall shooting percentage comes out higher. That's Simpson's Paradox.

And this paradox is particularly important in basketball, because it teaches teams that to boost scoring, they don't need to add more pure shooters or rebounders to their rosters. Instead, they can just focus on shot location, which is much easier -- and often cheaper -- to improve. Asik's club, the analytically devoted Rockets, ranked just 15th in the NBA this season in field goal percentage at the basket, 23rd in shooting from three to 23 feet away and eighth in three-point accuracy. Yet Houston was in the top 10 in the NBA in overall shooting percentage because 73.9 percent of the Rockets' attempts were either at the rim or from downtown, by far the most in the league. Simpson's Paradox!

NBA players generate an average of 1.2 points on shots taken at the rim (the easiest to make) or behind the three-point line (where field goals are worth more). So let's call these smart shots. Meanwhile, players average just 0.76 of a point per attempt from everywhere else. Focusing on smart shots at the expense of the dumb ones is how Carmelo Anthony won the scoring title this season. He didn't shoot particularly well from any distance, but he took 6.2 three-point attempts per game, by far the most of his career, amping his effective field goal percentage to 50.2 percent. Smart-shot acuity works at the other end too. The secret to the Pacers' smothering D? The team allowed the lowest rate of smart shots in the league (49.3 percent of opponents' attempts).

To see how it pays to focus on shot selection in the playoffs, look at the Spurs-Warriors series, a classic matchup between smart-shooting and sharpshooting teams. Golden State's ability to hit from anywhere kept things close for a while. But eventually the Spurs, harassing the perimeter and hedging quickly against pick-and-rolls, badgered Curry and Klay Thompson into low-efficiency terrain. In the fourth quarter of Game 6, the Warriors took nine jump shots at a distance of 16 to 23 feet from the basket, missing six, while the Spurs drove for three layups and hit on four of five bombs. Result: The Warriors went home, and I'm writing another valentine to San Antonio's sabermetric prowess.

I'm not sure Gregg Popovich would put it this way, but the Spurs advanced because they understood Simpson's Paradox better than their opponent. Winning teams often do.

 

[CP1708]

In a couple of years, every shot chart in the NBA will be either 3's, or in the paint, won't they?

The only mid range shooters will be the Haslem, Kurt Thomas's of the world where they shoot like 900%

 

[pmatic]

CourtVision: It Was the Best of Shots, It Was the Worst of Shots

A look at the two most important shots from last night's Game 1.

It Was the Best of Shots

In their biggest possession of the year, the Spurs were surely going to come up empty. A sequence that began with a pair of screens designed to free Tony Parker from LeBron James had badly broken down. Parker was 16 feet away from the rim, down on his left knee doing some desperate circus dribble. He was harmless, and LeBron James, the world’s best perimeter defender, loomed above him. The game clock read 9.2, the shot clock read 2.0, and this critical possession was on life support.

Parker got up, but his back was to the basket and James was in optimal defensive position, vertically spooning Parker deep in the midrange. Parker picked up his dribble, then pivoted on his left foot as means to at least face the basket and maybe create some separation from James. There was no way this was going to end well.

But that’s the exact moment when James overplayed his hand. In that split second, he overestimated Parker’s desperation. As Parker pivoted, James left his feet — a fatal defensive error — and prematurely leapt past Parker to try to block his shot. But Parker wasn’t shooting just yet, and with 0.7 on the shot clock Parker miraculously found himself with a clear look — a frantic and off-balance look, but a clear look nonetheless. With 0.4 on the shot clock, a camera bulb flashed as Parker was now squared up and about to release his shot.

Under normal circumstances, Parker hits shots in that area about 45 percent of the time. These were not normal circumstances. This shot had a higher level of difficulty, and was accompanied by an insane amount of pressure. Still, Parker, as graceful as ever, found a way to turn garbage into gold. Any normal NBA player would have been overwhelmed by the moment, but Parker is not normal, he’s an NBA Finals MVP. His shot gently careened off the glass before falling through the net. He had hit one of the biggest shots of his career, just a few seconds after looking harmless and desperate.

It Was the Worst of Shots

When I visited Miami in March, I took this picture of a fan’s sign. This particular Heat fan knows a lot about his team and its spatial shooting abilities: Ray Allen is lethal from the left corner, Shane Battier is great from the right one, LeBron is amazing near the basket, and Chris Bosh is great 19 feet from the rim.

During the regular season the Heat were among the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA. This had very little to do with Bosh, who made 28 percent of his 74 3-point attempts this season. Regardless, for some reason, Bosh and the Heat seem to have decided that Bosh 3s are a new secret weapon, and last night during one of their most important possessions, they attempted to use this new weapon against the Spurs.

Throughout the regular season, Bosh attempted only nine shots from the area where he shot that key 3-pointer last night; he made two of them. During the playoffs he’s 4-for-12 in that vicinity. In total he is 6-for-21, or 29 percent, which is well below the league average. So not only does Bosh have very little experience out there, his small samples suggest he is not very successful either.

When we watch the sequence where Bosh takes this shot, it seems like the Spurs don’t really care. Bosh got open on that play because Tim Duncan collapsed to help defend the attacking James. As James passed the ball to Bosh for the wide-open 3, no Spurs player even attempted to close out on him. It happened earlier in the quarter as well. With 6:41 remaining in the fourth quarter, Bosh missed another shot from the exact same spot. In that case, Duncan half-closed out, protecting the space Bosh normally shoots from, while encouraging him to take the 3.

Bosh is not a 3-point threat. Yes, he made some huge shots in the corners against the Celtics last year, but on the long list of potent Miami Heat scoring options, Bosh 3s are nowhere near the top. The Spurs know this, and each time an attacking James feeds the ball to Bosh outside the arc, the Spurs smile. Looking forward to Sunday, it will be interesting to see if Miami continues to get Bosh 3-point attempts, or if they adjust and move him back inside the arc, where he thrives. In a few weeks, maybe we’ll be talking about how the great Chris Bosh emerged as a deadly 3-point specialist en route to an NBA championship, or maybe we’ll be questioning why in the world the Heat would introduce an unnecessary wrinkle in their offense at such a key point in their season.

Link

 

[pmatic]

View media item 445304
It's been about three weeks since Melo has been eliminated from the playoffs and he still leads everyone in postseason field goal attempts (310). LeBron should pass him next game though, since he has 298 FGAs.

 

[JD617]

God damn. 

 

 

 

[JD617]

This is the WARP graph from the article on Duncan.

 

[CP1708]

Danny Green fakes towards Bosh, but doesn't leave Miller to chase him. Smart move.

Bosh could have stood there for a day, no Spur was going to him.

 

[pmatic]

Paine:

Top 10 all-time finals players

Last week in this space, we ranked every conference finals performance since 1986 (the first year for which Basketball-Reference.com has complete box scores), and LeBron James came out on top. That is as of Game 5 of this year's series, in which he averaged a cool 30.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 5.0 APG on a 62.8 True Shooting Percentage.

But that was just the conference finals, a stepping stone to the destination upon which every basketball player truly fixes his gaze: the NBA Finals. And, as you might have guessed, when we reran the same formula for the Finals, LeBron's career performance was not enough to make the top ten. However, two other players from the 2013 Finals do rank quite highly in terms of career Finals performance.

Before I get to the ranking, here's a refresher on the methodology. For each player, I computed Alternate Win Score (AWS), a linear-weights formula that multiple studies have found to be the best of its kind in terms of predicting future team performance. I also made adjustments for the quality of the opponent, location of the game and team defensive performance that isn't captured by the box score, and I weighted everything by championship leverage index to account for the clutchness of the game.

What follows are the results of that study -- the 10 best NBA Finals performers of the past 28 seasons, according to Alternate Win Score per game (minimum 10 NBA Finals games played). Read on to find out which two current Finals participants are in the top 10, and where they rank.

10. Hakeem Olajuwon
Adjusted AWS/game: 10.5 | 27.5 PPG | 53.4 TS% | 10.6 RPG | 3.4 APG | 5.1 St+Bk/G

As we found out in the first article of this series, Hakeem owned the conference finals more than almost any player ever has. In the Finals, though, his ranking drops a bit because we're including 1986, when the Celtics cut Olajuwon's production significantly from what it had been in the West final. Still, Olajuwon later carried the Rockets to two championships, putting up dominant numbers against Patrick Ewing and Shaquille O'Neal in the process.

Signature Performance: 30 pts/10 reb/4 blk versus New York in Game 6 of the 1994 NBA Finals (4.5 leverage index)

9. Chauncey Billups
Adjusted AWS/game: 10.9 | 20.7 PPG | 61.7 TS% | 4.3 RPG | 5.8 APG | 1.2 St+Bk/G

Few players have ever been as offensively efficient as Billups, who embodied the modern ethos of emphasizing the most efficient shots on the basketball court (take as many threes and free throws as you can) before it was cool. Combine that stat-friendly style with a deserving clutch rep as "Mr. Big Shot," and it's a recipe for success on this list.

Signature Performance: 34 pts (55.1 TS%)/7 ast/5 reb/1 TO versus San Antonio in Game 5 of the 2005 Finals (4.3 leverage index)

8. Clyde Drexler
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.3 15 GP | 24.5 PPG | 55.7 TS% | 8.3 RPG | 6 APG | 1.9 St+Bk/G

When most people think of Drexler in the Finals, they remember Michael Jordan eviscerating him in 1992's marquee matchup of shooting guards. However, while Drexler wasn't at his best in that series, he played much better in the oft-forgotten 1990 Finals against Detroit -- 26.4 PPG (59.8 TS%)/7.8 RPG/6.2 APG -- and was a criminally underrated aspect of the Rockets' 1995 title run. It is frequently assumed that Olajuwon did it all by himself that year, but Drexler averaged 21.5 PPG (56.0 TS%), 9.5 RPG, and 6.8 APG in those Finals, hardly the numbers of a lowly role player.

Signature Performance: 34 pts/10 ast/8 reb versus Detroit in Game 4 of the 1990 NBA Finals (3.2 leverage index)

7. Pau Gasol
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.3 | 17.3 PPG | 58.5 TS% | 10.4 RPG | 3.2 APG | 2.3 St+Bk/G

Like Drexler, Gasol's Finals résumé has also been somewhat misunderstood. His 2008 performance was seen as a dud for a lack of physicality and toughness inside, yet he averaged 10.2 RPG and shot 53.2 percent from the floor while scoring 14.7 PPG, even drawing fouls at a very high rate of 0.55 FTA for every FGA. In 2009 and 2010, he produced at a higher level, averaging a double-double (18.6 PPG/10.6 RPG) with 2.3 blocks per game, and his 19 points and 18 boards helped bail out the Lakers when Kobe Bryant went cold (37.6 TS%) in the single highest-leverage game of the past 28 years. (Incidentally, that game is a big reason why Bryant doesn't appear on this clutch-weighted list.)

Signature Performance: 19 pts/18 reb versus Boston in Game 7 of the 2010 NBA Finals (9.2 leverage index)

6. Larry Bird
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.4 | 24.1 PPG | 55.5 TS% | 9.8 RPG | 7.5 APG | 2.7 St+Bk/G

As we mentioned in the conference finals version of this article, Bird's entire body of postseason work isn't included in this dataset, which is a shame. However, that which we do have data for -- the 1986 Finals against Houston and the 1987 Finals against the Lakers -- was spectacular, with Bird producing in practically every column on the stat sheet. His work against the Rockets in particular was jaw-dropping; Bird averaged a near-triple double with 24 PPG, 9.7 RPG, and 9.5 APG and saved arguably his best performance for Game 6, the most important of the series by leverage index.

Signature Performance: 29 pts/12 ast/11 reb versus Houston in Game 6 of the 1986 NBA Finals (4.0 leverage index)

5. Shaquille O'Neal
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.7 | 28.8 PPG | 59 TS% | 13.1 RPG | 3.4 APG | 2.6 St+Bk/G

O'Neal barely missed our conference finals list, but there was no way he wouldn't show up on the Finals version. Few players have ever been more unstoppable at their peak than O'Neal, and he may very well have ranked first on this entire list if we focused solely on his performance during the Lakers' three-peat of 2000-02. However, Shaq does drop to fifth after including his other three Finals appearances (1995, 2004, 2006). You might think 1995 is what drops him the most, but it's actually 2006 -- Games 5 and 6 of those Finals were actually the two highest-leverage games of Shaq's Finals career, and he faded into the background with 13.5 PPG on a 44.9 TS% as Dwyane Wade took over.

Signature Performance: 43 pts/19 reb versus Indiana in Game 1 of the 2000 NBA Finals (3.0 leverage index)

4. Dwyane Wade
Adjusted AWS/game: 12.0 | 28.2 PPG | 57 TS% | 7 RPG | 4.7 APG | 3.1 St+Bk/G

Several years ago, John Hollinger was asked to rank the 50 greatest NBA Finals performances since the merger, and Wade's 2006 demolition of Dallas stood alone at the top of the list. It's not hard to see why -- Wade averaged 34.7 PPG for the entire series, and he poured it on even more when the moments got bigger, putting up 39.5 PPG in Games 5 and 6 (by far the two biggest games of the series by leverage index). And since that coming-out party, all Wade's done in the Finals is average 26.5 PPG (61.4 TS%)/7.0 RPG/5.2 APG in 2011 (not his fault Miami lost), and 22.6 PPG/6.0 RPG/5.2 APG a year ago.

Signature Performance: 36 pts/10 reb/7 blk+stl at Dallas in Game 6 of the 2006 NBA Finals (5.6 leverage index)

3. Tim Duncan
Adjusted AWS/game: 12.2 | 22.7 PPG | 52.5 TS% | 14.4 RPG | 3.4 APG | 3.9 St+Bk/G

As great as Wade has been in the Finals over his career, Duncan, his 2013 Finals opponent, has been even more sensational. Winning four rings will do that for your reputation, but Duncan put in serious work along the way, bursting onto the scene with a 27.4 PPG (59.9 TS%)/14.0 RPG stat line against the Knicks in 1999, and ripping New Jersey in 2003 for an astounding 24.2 PPG/17.0 RPG/5.3 APG/5.3 BPG. His numbers were slightly lower (19.7 PPG/13.2 RPG/2.2 BPG) in subsequent Finals, but his overall résumé is staggering.

Signature Performance: 32 pts/20 reb/6 ast/10 blk+stl versus New Jersey in Game 1 of the 2003 NBA Finals (3.4 leverage index)

2. Earvin "Magic" Johnson
Adjusted AWS/game: 13.0 | 20.6 PPG | 62 TS% | 6.6 RPG | 12.1 APG | 1.9 St+Bk/G

In the range of his Finals career that we cover here (1987-1991), Johnson had reached his greatest peak as a player, combining the highest passing and shooting skill levels of his career with still-excellent rebounding and a bigger role in the Lakers' offense than ever. You saw the full measure of his talent during the 1987 Finals in particular, when Magic's averages were 26.2 PPG (59.0 TS%)/13.0 APG/8.0 RPG/2.3 SPG, one of the finest NBA Finals performances of all time. It's not crazy to think Johnson would have challenged for the number one spot here if we could include pre-1986 performances like his 42 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals in the 1980 clincher.

Signature Performance: 22 pts/20 ast versus Boston in Game 2 of the 1987 NBA Finals (3.1 leverage index)

1. Michael Jordan
Adjusted AWS/game: 14.0 35 GP | 33.6 PPG | 55.9 TS% | 6 RPG | 6 APG | 2.4 St+Bk/G

Even if we did include Johnson's entire Finals oeuvre, though, he probably doesn't match Jordan. That's no knock; the Finals were just the time when Jordan left everybody else behind in the dust. It's impossible to begin to detail MJ's career Finals accomplishments in this space, so I'll just leave you by simply stating that his Bulls won all 15 of his 15 highest-leverage career Finals games, matchups in which Jordan averaged 33.9 PPG (56.6 TS%), 6.5 RPG, 5.1 APG, and 1.9 SPG. In his four highest-leverage games, he averaged 40.5 PPG on a 60.5 TS%. This, more than anything else, is why Chicago was unbeatable in big games during their run with MJ in the 1990s.

Signature Performance: 45 pts/4 stl at Utah in Game 6 of the 1998 Finals (5.3 leverage index)

A missing player is going to cause some upheaval.

 

[dacomeup]

No Kobe is going to ruffle many feathers.

 

[JD617]

That in addition to Pau making the list... oh boy.

 

[pmatic]

Haberstroh:

Time for Chris Bosh to get closer

The dreadlocks are long gone. About 25 pounds have fallen off his frame. The jersey no longer reads "Raptors" across the chest.

These things have been true about Chris Bosh for years. But never has he looked more different, more unrecognizable than he does right now in the 2013 NBA Finals.

You could say that Bosh expected to be here. Playing for the Heat in the Finals, that's what he came to Miami for in 2010. To try and win the big one, that was the goal.

But living beyond the arc in the Finals, spreading the floor like a shooting specialist, firing up four 3-pointers in a Finals game and rarely venturing into the paint? Was that part of the plan?

Did he ever expect he'd be here, in this way?

"Yeah, of course," Bosh said at Friday's practice.

Really?

"Nah, I didn't," Bosh confessed. "I'm a totally different player than I thought I would be five years ago."

How could you blame him for thinking otherwise?

Before coming to Miami, Bosh averaged 24 points and 10.8 rebounds on 51.8 percent shooting in 2009-10 in Toronto. He was your prototypical dump-it-down-into-the-post, multi-skilled power forward who received dozens of paint touches a night. Depending on who you asked, he was either one of the top three or five most-coveted free agents in that star-studded summer of 2010 free-agent class. For most, it went LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and then Bosh.

But it's hard to fathom that that is the same player we're watching now.

Here in the postseason, just three seasons later, he's averaging 12.3 points, 6.5 rebounds on 44.9 percent shooting.

How can this be?

Welcome to the great migration of Chris Bosh.

I present to you a statistic from Synergy Sports Technology:

No one in the NBA has registered more spot-ups than Chris Bosh this postseason. No one.

Bosh has tallied 90 such plays this postseason. That's more than Danny Green, Ray Allen, Tayshaun Prince or any other marksmen who loiters on the perimeter, waiting for a teammate to feed him a ball. Ten more spot-ups, in fact, than anyone on the leaderboard.

Yes, Chris Bosh.

Here's another one for you: Guess how many post-up plays Bosh has registered this postseason?

Try eight. In 17 games.

That's fewer than James Harden, according to Synergy. Keep in mind, Harden stopped playing NBA games over a month ago.

It's hard to imagine a player more transformed than Bosh over the past few years. We tend to forget now, but Bosh was one of the most dominant post players in the league back in Toronto. You may not think of him that way, but he was. He just did his work a little bit differently than most.

Synergy tells us that Bosh scored 600 points from the block in 2009-10, which was third-most in the league behind Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson. Bosh captured more points from the block than Zach Randolph that season, and Randolph played in 11 more games. Among the 33 players with at least 250 post-up plays in 2009-10, Bosh ranked No. 1 in efficiency, scoring 1.09 points every play on average. He got there by frequenting the free throw line at an absurdly high rate, and it wasn't because of a Hack-A-Shaq program. It was because he knew how to score.

Yes, Bosh is absolutely correct that he's a different player now.

This postseason, Bosh has tallied more 3-pointers (15) than dunks (11). According to NBA.com data, Bosh's average field goal attempt this postseason is 14.1 feet away from the basket. That's 2.3 feet farther than his average shot in the regular season and 3.8 feet farther than he was last postseason. In 2009-10? His average shot was a mere 8.8 feet away from the basket -- almost half where he is planted now.

Bosh continues to move farther and farther away.

And how many post-ups did he average per game that last season Toronto?

Try eight. That's right, his total in this entire postseason.

So is this a good thing?

It's hard to argue that it's not when the Heat are one of two teams left standing while 28 other teams' seasons have ended.

But that assumes that the Heat can't be better, that Bosh can't be better.

The schedule offered Erik Spoelstra two full days to figure out a better game plan for Game 2 on Sunday. His team scored a measly 88 points on its home court in Game 1. Right at the top of Spoelstra's to-do list before Sunday's match is to find a way to get Bosh more touches in the post, where he has been more efficient this season.

"We need to get him in areas he can be aggressive and get paint catches," Spoelstra said on Monday.

But aggressiveness can be hard to find outside your comfort zone, and Bosh has never been so distant from the basket in his life. In Spoelstra's pace-and-space system, Bosh often runs to the perimeter and stays there, hoping to drag his big defender away from the paint and create real estate for James and Wade to set up shop. Whether it's in the corner or the top of the key, Bosh has migrated outward and the Spurs have let him be.

Is this new perimeter habitat challenging for Bosh?

"Yeah," Bosh said. "I'm still trying to feel that area out. Seeing more bodies, it's a little more difficult. It's something I'm still not used to. I had eight, nine years of primarily being on the block. And that first step (from the midrange area), you're there a lot quicker to the basket. It's difficult to grasp, but life is difficult."

Greater distance from the basket means more time for help defenders to stymie Bosh's attack. As a result, Bosh has often been neutralized off the dribble. And you can forget about posting up from 25 feet.

It's odd to hear of an eight-time All-Star suffering from an identity crisis in the Finals. But James offered a solution for Bosh: return to the paint and get back on track.

"I think if he accepts the challenge to want to put pressure in the paint, he'll have it," James said of Bosh. "Wherever CB demands the ball in the post, we'll give it to him. We need that paint attack from him."

From where James stands, it appears that Bosh's task is a matter of desire. But it's also a question of health. Ever since Bosh turned his right ankle in Game 4 of the East finals, he has not been the same. Bosh has failed to score double-digits in four of his past five games since the ankle sprain. Bosh and Spoelstra will not elaborate on his injury other than to say he is receiving treatment and there will be no excuses.

Heading into Game 2, it would serve the Heat well to find ways to get Bosh closer to the basket. But for that to happen, Bosh must first find himself. Whoever that might be.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Synergy tells us that Bosh scored 600 points from the block in 2009-10, which was third-most in the league behind Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson. Bosh captured more points from the block than Zach Randolph that season, and Randolph played in 11 more games. Among the 33 players with at least 250 post-up plays in 2009-10, Bosh ranked No. 1 in efficiency, scoring 1.09 points every play on average. He got there by frequenting the free throw line at an absurdly high rate, and it wasn't because of a Hack-A-Shaq program. It was because he knew how to score.

I keep tryiong to tell people Bosh was VICIOUS on the blocks, especially that last year in Toronto.

 

[pmatic]

View media item 449389

@HickoryHigh A look at 3PT shooters who are much better from the corners, and vice-versa. Inspired by @thecity2 http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=8073

 

[CP1708]

This could get me shot at, but I've seen Spurs fans talk about how Kawhi is better than Kobe ever was. I assume they may be a smidge bias in that belief, but off them for a sec, what does his future hold?

We've all seen he can't dribble a ball for ****. The kid don't even want to dribble it, he gets the ball and hot potatoes it to someone else asap. He can catch and shoot, and his motor is neverending, his defense is superb, and he should literally never get in trouble since he doesn't speak, so refs should never take issue with him, etc.

But he ain't gonna live forever shooting corner 3's, especially when Duncan/Manu are gone. (Parker should last a little longer) He can't really take anyone off the dribble unless he switches to running back, so he can't really get his own shot, so.....

Is he a more athletic Ron Artest with even less handles? A lesser Paul George? Lesser Iggy?

I like the Artest one although I think Kawhi would be much smarter than Ron and not shoot as much as Ron did in his Sac/Houston days. Ron thought he was an offensive guy, Kawhi probably knows he is not. So he'll take good shots, get rebounds, pass when it's there, play great defense and put up a lot of 13-8-4-2-2's for his career after Dunc/Manu are gone. Am I off?

 

[osh kosh bosh]

This could get me shot at, but I've seen Spurs fans talk about how Kawhi is better than Kobe ever was. I assume they may be a smidge bias in that belief, but off them for a sec, what does his future hold?

We've all seen he can't dribble a ball for ****. The kid don't even want to dribble it, he gets the ball and hot potatoes it to someone else asap. He can catch and shoot, and his motor is neverending, his defense is superb, and he should literally never get in trouble since he doesn't speak, so refs should never take issue with him, etc.

But he ain't gonna live forever shooting corner 3's, especially when Duncan/Manu are gone. (Parker should last a little longer) He can't really take anyone off the dribble unless he switches to running back, so he can't really get his own shot, so.....

Is he a more athletic Ron Artest with even less handles? A lesser Paul George? Lesser Iggy?

I like the Artest one although I think Kawhi would be much smarter than Ron and not shoot as much as Ron did in his Sac/Houston days. Ron thought he was an offensive guy, Kawhi probably knows he is not. So he'll take good shots, get rebounds, pass when it's there, play great defense and put up a lot of 13-8-4-2-2's for his career after Dunc/Manu are gone. Am I off?

no way, Ron Aretest was a really good passer, a viscous post player against smaller guys, Kawhi aiont that.

He's a high end role player, he's like the best possible version of bruce bowen.

 

[kevin cleveland]

Yeah, dudes are missing me with the "Leonard and George future star" talk lately.

 

[antidope]

Synergy tells us that Bosh scored 600 points from the block in 2009-10, which was third-most in the league behind Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson. Bosh captured more points from the block than Zach Randolph that season, and Randolph played in 11 more games. Among the 33 players with at least 250 post-up plays in 2009-10, Bosh ranked No. 1 in efficiency, scoring 1.09 points every play on average. He got there by frequenting the free throw line at an absurdly high rate, and it wasn't because of a Hack-A-Shaq program. It was because he knew how to score.

I keep tryiong to tell people Bosh was VICIOUS on the blocks, especially that last year in Toronto.

Anyone who watched a lot of Bosh knew this though. I was a big fan of him in his Toronto days, mainly because I drafted him in Fantasy basketball on a whim and he started balling out for me, but that season I watched a ton of him. I didnt like the Miami move for him because I knew that his numbers would dip drastically, if he was the man on his team he'd be getting 25 and 12 right now.

This could get me shot at, but I've seen Spurs fans talk about how Kawhi is better than Kobe ever was. I assume they may be a smidge bias in that belief, but off them for a sec, what does his future hold?

We've all seen he can't dribble a ball for ****. The kid don't even want to dribble it, he gets the ball and hot potatoes it to someone else asap. He can catch and shoot, and his motor is neverending, his defense is superb, and he should literally never get in trouble since he doesn't speak, so refs should never take issue with him, etc.

But he ain't gonna live forever shooting corner 3's, especially when Duncan/Manu are gone. (Parker should last a little longer) He can't really take anyone off the dribble unless he switches to running back, so he can't really get his own shot, so.....

Is he a more athletic Ron Artest with even less handles? A lesser Paul George? Lesser Iggy?

I like the Artest one although I think Kawhi would be much smarter than Ron and not shoot as much as Ron did in his Sac/Houston days. Ron thought he was an offensive guy, Kawhi probably knows he is not. So he'll take good shots, get rebounds, pass when it's there, play great defense and put up a lot of 13-8-4-2-2's for his career after Dunc/Manu are gone. Am I off?

Who said that? I would never go that far, but hes the future of this team. His ball handling needs some work, but hes very good in the post, he wont be a guy who relies on creating his own shot from 18-23 feet, but with a coach like Pop he wont really need to all that much. Hes going to do his work from 10 ft and below, grab a lot of boards, and defend very well. IMO hes one of the best two way players in the league right now, and on a Paul George type track. Yeah that comparison is overused at the moment but I honestly think it fits.

 

[CP1708]

I'm only reporting what I've read from Spurs people.

Kawhi >>>> Prime Kobe. I swear on everything I read that multiple times. And no, I don't mean just one person, trust me, there's more.


Better Bruce Bowen, but worse Ron Artest middle ground? That puts him as no more than a 4th best player on a good team then, meaning if he's to be part of the Spurs future, they need multiple pieces ahead of him.

That's going to be fun.

 

[CP1708]

IMO hes one of the best two way players in the league right now

What's his second way tho?

Do you mean defense and rebounding, or what?

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Paul George is basically prime Andre Iguadala, a streaky shooting elite wing defender who can make high level passes out of the pick and roll, Iggy never got the respect becuase people didn't respect defense.

Kawhi, can't shoot from anywhere but the corners, has a decent post game, but not overpowering, low turnover guy but certainly not a high level passer, if he becomes that we can talk but right now he just looks like a really really good role player, like the new Bruce Bowen.

 

[antidope]

Whoever is saying that is crazy, hes nowhere near that good. Hes got a long way to go to get there but I can see him becoming a 18 PPG guy and couple that with his excellent rebounding and defense and you've got yourself a legit star player right there.Yes thats what I meant I should have been more clear, unless rebounding falls under the umbrella of defense, but he grabs a good amount of offensive ones also. Hes not up there offensively yet, and I wouldnt dare suggest such.Ron Artest was about the 3rd best player on the Rockets back when they were a legit force in the league

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Defense 3's and athleticism guys are valuable, look at memphis and the their tony allen conundrum, can't put him on the court in key spots cause it clogs the d.

Jimmy Butler, Kawhi, Quincy Pondexter are going to have long careers.

 

[kevin cleveland]

Gordon Hayward is and will continue to be better than both of them, though.