The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion

[bhzmafia14]

I remember in the NBA thread people were over exaggerating about Conley being #1 in points per iso.

My main man Conley

 

[IATT]

also for as much as i used to love harden (my fondness waned after having to watch my team play against him in the first round), we do have to account for his defense (or lack there of) and also the numbers he put up in the finals and the 1st round this year:

finals: he shot 37/31/79

1st round this year: he shot 39/34/80 (with 4.5 turnovers)

 

[addict4sneakers]

I remember in the NBA thread people were over exaggerating about Conley being #1 in points per iso.

My main man Conley

if i remember correctly, the article you first mentioned was saying he had the highest fg% in iso situations, which was indeed true but he didn't have nearly as many iso's as kyrie or lebron. he wasn't in the top 40.

but that's not the point. he's been playing very well and i'll finally admit he's a top 10 PG.

 

[pmatic]

Sit down, read and laugh.

Sixers' analytical approach

Josh Harris acquired Twinkies and Sam Hinkie in the same calendar year.

Either move could make the billionaire investor look like a Ding Dong.

Harris' group of investment sharks, Apollo Global Management, in March bought a piece of Hostess out of bankruptcy.

Harris' group of hoops hobbyists, the Philadelphia 76ers, last week hired 35-year-old Stanford MBA graduate Sam Hinkie to be the team's president of basketball operations and general manager.

Twinkies have a timeless allure.

Hinkie is more the flavor of the month.

Considering the evolving nature of sports, Hinkie's profile and his background might endear him to half of the Sixers' fan base and doom him in the eyes of the rest.

It will be years before either side can be validated. Half a decade will pass before Hinkie's analytics-based approach can be fairly judged.

He first must hire a coach. He then must decide the worth of players such as Andrew Bynum, Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, Lavoy Allen, and, yes, even spirited forward Thaddeus Young and All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday.

Harris, whose investments also have included cruise lines, knows a bad boat when he sees it. This 34-win ship is listing severely. Anyone might be jettisoned.

Hinkie was part of the Rockets' retooling this past offseason that landed James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. He worked under Houston GM Daryl Morey, a new-age, big-picture man who runs his operation without fear of ridicule.

Hinkie will be given a sledgehammer and a smartphone by Harris, a fellow geek. This Old Team could be deconstructed beyond recognition by summertime.

Fortysomethings and their elders likely will roll their eyes and regard Hinkie as part of an overvalued wave of fantasy nerds who use probabilities as sacred texts and who forsake what their eyes and their hearts (and their scouts) tell them.

The thirtysomethings and their Freakonomics legions likely will rejoice that the Sixers have moved past sexagenarian Doug Collins, the crusty coach who just quit.

Replacing Collins, of course, will be Hinkie's most urgent task. Given the league's increased use of analytics, he will have no shortage of candidates who understand his methods.

Should the Sixers pursue Pacers assistant Brian Shaw, as is expected, they will be seeking a man baptized in applied analytics. Pacers GM Kevin Pritchard was a panelist at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March, where the ComicCon alumni who now work in sports administration meet to plot their revenge against the jocks they employ.

Hinkie, with an MBA from Stanford, is Harris' latest move toward "building advanced analytic capability" within the organization, Harris' late-night hobby among his other investments.

Does the hire of Hinkie indicate that only Spoelstras need apply? Hinkie was a candidate for the same job last year, but Collins' distaste for applied analytics and his assumption of complete control of the franchise would have clashed with Hinkie's religion.

The Sixers opted instead to promote Tony DiLeo, a loyal soldier for more than 2 decades – who, it should be noted, appreciates analytics in NBA strategies. DiLeo is expected to be let go.

And, lest anyone throw aside conventional wisdoms, consider this: The Oakland A's, sport's pioneer into calculus-dependent franchise-building, have made the playoffs just six times in Billy Beane's 15 seasons as GM, and have won one playoff series.

The Rockets – who, unlike the cost-conscious A's, operate under a leaguewide salary cap – have been to the playoffs three times under Morey. They have won one series.

How much credit should Hinkie get for Houston's qualified success? Who are his guys?

Fashionable, serviceable point guard Lin? Prized shooting guard Harden?

Did Hinkie slam his red stapler on Morey's desk and threaten to burn down the building if Asik stayed in Chicago?

Of course, there are facets to running a team that cannot be graphed.

How do you quantify chemistry? What is the jerk quotient? What metric gauges the likelihood of, say, players eating chicken and drinking beer in the clubhouse during games?

Even if Hinkie is an eyes-on GM, an eager, tireless scout, does that mean he knows what he's seeing?

Harris has hired what he knows; what has worked for him in the past. Dispassionate acquisition and manipulation of resources, inevitable "reorganization" of "assets," resulted in a lack of humanism that helped lead to the disastrous moves the Sixers made last year.

The questions about Bynum's toughness, professionalism and commitment all turned out to be warranted. Any questions about Andre Iguodala's value were not.

Still, teams implement everything they can to produce wins. Consider some of the better teams over the past few seasons.

The Celtics, operating in the shadow of the sabergeeks at Fenway, hired Harvard law grad Mike Zarren almost a decade ago, and he advanced to assistant GM as the team acquired stars like Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen – but also was bolstered by less-heralded veterans Jeff Green and Brandon Bass.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban is rabid about analytics. The Spurs, perhaps the benchmark for professionalism, have used an analytics arm for years. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra created the team's stats system when he was Pat Riley's gofer, and Spoelstra uses the software to run simulations.

The Sixers already are among the 15 NBA teams that have installed SportVU, the Stats, Inc. camera system that tracks players and the ball and how they relate and interact. SportVU is not, of course, the only such tool, nor is it universally loved by analytic nuts. The Heat, for instance, does not have one.

The Sixers also hired Aaron Barzilai in November, long after he might have analyzed a trade for a player such as, say, Andrew Bynum . . . an unfortunate timing development, perhaps.

Barzilai's basketballvalue.com website computed players' values for the two seasons that preceded the end of the 2012 playoffs.

The website showed that, remarkably, Andre Iguodala was slightly more valuable than Kevin Durant . . . and was worth considerably more than Andrew Bynum.

Link

 

[datznasty]

also for as much as i used to love harden (my fondness waned after having to watch my team play against him in the first round), we do have to account for his defense (or lack there of) and also the numbers he put up in the finals and the 1st round this year:

finals: he shot 37/31/79

1st round this year: he shot 39/34/80 (with 4.5 turnovers)

The Hardens finals choke argument dies though when you consider Kevin Martin averages the same averages (well less than a point more), in the regular season and early playoffs rounds (and even less if you split it to only against playoff teams), as the finals 12.4ppg that constituted Harden "disappearing."

As far as Lamb, he was definitely the best guard in summer league, but somebody should have spoken to Brooks or even at some point forced him to play Lamb. Lamb wasted away in Tulsa during stretches of the season where we had blowout after blowout and starters weren't even playing the 4th. He could have gotten some good NBA minutes during those times.

 

[pmatic]

Not to mention the Thunder probably don't get to the Finals without Harden and the Heat had/have the perfect personnel-scheme to stop Harden from pick and roll onslaughts.

 

[pmatic]

@SHowardCooper First-team All-Defense: LeBron James, Serge Ibaka (forward), Tyson Chandler, Joakim Noah (center, tie) , Tony Allen, Chris Paul (guard).

@SHowardCooper Second-team All-Defense: Tim Duncan, Paul George (forward), Marc Gasol (center), Avery Bradley, Mike Conley (guard).

@kpelton Annual reminder: Media votes for Defensive Player of the Year. Coaches vote for All-Defensive Teams.

Ibaka making first team, Chandler over Gasol, no Iguodala. Awful.

 

[al3xis]

Ibaka getting buried on the occasional Z-Bo seal and then still being athletic enough to block his shot - it sums up his defense.

Chandler being 1st team is a joke this year.

 

[kevin cleveland]

I get that two different entities decide these things, but the player of the year essentially finishing third in a similar race is something you probably want to avoid.

 

[pmatic]

View media item 408718
Gasol was third on his own team in total votes.

 

[kevin cleveland]

Alright, the player of the year essentially finished 14th.

That's embarrassing.

 

[IATT]

The Hardens finals choke argument dies though when you consider Kevin Martin averages the same averages (well less than a point more), in the regular season and early playoffs rounds (and even less if you split it to only against playoff teams), as the finals 12.4ppg that constituted Harden "disappearing."

i really expected martin to be alot better spot up shooter than he is (or at list a much more consistent one).. i mean i dont think anyone would be crazy enough to think that the thunder were trying to get martin to replace everything that harden gave us (obviously, considering it wasnt a 1 for 1 trade).. but i did expect him to make teams pay for collapsing on kd/westbrook and he has at times.. but just not as consistently as i thought he would

Quote:

Originally Posted by DatZNasty  

As far as Lamb, he was definitely the best guard in summer league, but somebody should have spoken to Brooks or even at some point forced him to play Lamb. Lamb wasted away in Tulsa during stretches of the season where we had blowout after blowout and starters weren't even playing the 4th. He could have gotten some good NBA minutes during those times.

brooks really cant help himself.. he can even find mins for liggins occasionally, but not for lamb

fisher shows up last year and we can find 20 mins per for him.. same as this year.. luckily this year, he's playing his butt off in the playoffs (not so much before)

but it's the same thing before maynor got hurt where he wouldnt play westbrook off the ball with maynor until that last game of the dallas series.. hell, i just read this, this morning:

"Remarkably,  none of Oklahoma City’s 18 most-used lineups this season included Jackson and Westbrook on the court simultaneously"

http://nba.si.com/2013/05/11/three-pointers-memphis-grizzlies-oklahoma-city-thunder/

 

[pmatic]

More jokes coming out of Philadelphia.

Larry Brown: Advanced Analytics ‘Don’t Work’ In Basketball

Former Sixers coach Larry Brown joined 94WIP’s Anthony Gargano and Glen Macnow on Monday to discuss the team’s hiring of former Houston Rockets VP Sam Hinkie as their new President and General Manager.

Hinkie has a reputation of being a leader in the use of advanced analytics in both player selection and the way the team plays. Brown commented on the use of advanced statistics in basketball:

Well, any information you get, Anthony [Gargano], is going to help you, but I’m not one of those guys. Basketball is not like baseball. I’ll give you an example of this analytics —I got fired from Charlotte, we’re all aware of that. I sat down with some of those guys. They got rid of Raymond Felton because he was going to make seven million dollars and kept D.J. Augustin who was making $2.5 [million] and they told me D.J. at 2.5 [million] was better than Raymond at seven [million]. And I said if that was the case I would have started D.J. I’m not saying they’re wrong or stuff like that.

I’ll give you another example: two days ago, I’m listening to some of these NBA analysts about why Oklahoma City is struggling, and it’s obvious you don’t have Westbrook, one of your best players, you’re going to struggle. But they were saying how Ibaka was a guy that was being hurt the most by not playing with Westbrook and they said that if you look at the stats, Ibaka is a better mid-range shooter than Kevin Durant. I had to laugh, I said Ibaka takes jump shots where he is never guarded because people have to guard Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Every shot Kevin Durant takes he’s got one, two, or three people in his face.

I mean you can use that knowledge and help things, but at the end of the day it doesn’t work in basketball in my mind. I’m not saying all the information I ever got about this guy shoots better from this point on the floor, but if you rebound, if you defend, you share the ball, you have a better opportunity to win—and in the NBA, to me, the rocket science is this: acquire draft choices, get great players, have good contracts, and have a coach there that can develop young talent because so many of the teams are getting younger and younger. So you better have coaches there that can teach, rather than coaches there that can analyze whether stats mean something or not.

Brown also spoke about Josh Harris and the new Sixers ownership:

I look at this new ownership group, and they’re phenomenal. I think of what they did—they amnestied Elton Brand, they went after [Andrew] Bynum and took a risk. They’ve put their money where their mouth is. They’re working hard to succeed, but I’ll give you this silly stat. Tony Dileo probably got fired because they got Bynum right? Well Houston wanted Bynum so badly, they just didn’t have enough resources. Now think about that. Now just think about that. They tried so hard to get Bynum, and they couldn’t get him because they didn’t have the resources that probably Tony [Dileo], and Rod Thorn, and Billy King, acquired. At the end of the day, just like I said before, all these great teams in the NBA that are able to make moves, they are able to do it because they have great players, or they have great contracts, or they have draft picks, or they have coaches that develop young players and it isn’t going to change—it’s not like money ball. And the last time I looked at it Oakland hasn’t won a World Series since Finley left, right?

Link

 

[bigmike23]

whats Ibaka defense rating advance stats wise? and point me in the direction where i can look up defense stats for players if yall could.

 

[CP1708]

The **** they still list Duncan as a Forward for?

I'm sorry, somewhere in Philly, they had a computer say that Iggy was more valuable than Durant? Say whaaaaat?

 

[pmatic]

whats Ibaka defense rating advance stats wise? and point me in the direction where i can look up defense stats for players if yall could.

Using nba.com/advancedstats:
View media item 40874782games says opposing power forwards had averaged a PER of 14.7 and centers averaged a PER of 13.7.
basketball-reference's win shares:

Defensive Win Shares
1. Paul George-IND 6.3
2. Marc Gasol-MEM 5.4
3. Kevin Durant-OKC 5.3
4. Tim Duncan-SAS 4.9
5. Roy Hibbert-IND 4.9
6. Mike Conley-MEM 4.8
7. Dwight Howard-LAL 4.8
8. Zach Randolph-MEM 4.7
9. David West-IND 4.7
10. LeBron James-MIA 4.7
11. Joakim Noah-CHI 4.7
12. Josh Smith-ATL 4.5
13. Carlos Boozer-CHI 4.3
14. Al Horford-ATL 4.1
15. Tony Allen-MEM 4.1
16. Serge Ibaka-OKC 4.1
17. Rudy Gay-TOT 4.0
18. Russell Westbrook-OKC 3.9
19. Blake Griffin-LAC 3.9
20. Kevin Garnett-BOS 3.8

 

[CP1708]

You mean a superteam like the one they just gave up on when they traded James Harden?

Yea, don't be mad at me. I didn't do it.
And CP, cheap owners. Even in their daily business operations, they do things that reak of cheapskateness like trying to trick season ticket holders into not attenidng the parties. They didn't want to, or only minimally anyways be tax payers. You could have kept James one more year (this one), he would be a restricted FA afterwards, and you still have control over the situation. He was never a threat to walk for nothing, contrary to reports.

I still don't know who to blame more though, Presti or the owners. Because if he wanted to max James and they say no I'm not paying more than X, than he has to work with that. I still argue some of the other trades might have been better than Kevin Martin, who I knew from day 1 was going to be buns, but even with that Kevin Martin and Scott Brooks have a pre existing relationship since Brooks was an assistant in Sacramento. But GS would have given us Klay Thompson for him but they were going to force us to take either RJeff or ABied's contract. I would have done it. You have Klay for more yrs at rookie scale, then after 1 yr of whoever you take (I'm takig Jefferson), now they're an expiring and you can flip them.

There was also the well publicized deal for either the #2 or #3 picks.

FYI, the Toronto pick for this draft we got from the deal is #12. :x

Yeah, most of us knew on here that Harden would still be under control another year, so why rush the deal? Russ getting hurt is a PERFECT example of what they should have done with Harden. They still have a better than average shot at the Finals, and in the meantime, they increase the value of Harden.

And I'm sorry, I don't care how bad he was in the FInals, you don't flip a 22-23 year old after a bad series against Wade/LeBron. Come on.


Klay would have worked out perfectly for you guys. Then again, Harden and Curry would piss me off greatly, so thank goodness that didn't happen.
And if they liked Lamb, why bench him all damn year? Let the kid learn and grow, and use the draft pick to double up somewhere. (I assume they expected a higher than 12 pick, understandably)

Really, really baffling trade. So many levels of weird. In a lot of ways tho, it could be viewed like the Gasol deal was, many felt Memphis could have gotten more for Pau, but Marc Gasol is here now. Maybe the Thunder think that of Lamb or pick #12 (which they assumed would be higher of course)

 

[bigmike23]

when your OKC front office, and you see what happened with Melo/Denver, bron/cavs, Cp3/Hornets, D12/Magic why go in the season with harden when you have already said you wont resign him to the max? go ahead and make your move now and live with it.

The model for a team that doesnt want to pay Huge tax dollars is how the spurs do bizz right? well you think the spurs would have just let him walk or trade him before to get some value back? and Presti hits on his draft picks

 

[CP1708]

Naw man, that's with 1 year on the clock, they had TWO.

Regardless of years, KMart, Lamb, and a Toronto pick is not even the best trade on the table. And if it WAS, why waste Lamb's entire year? At worst, absolute worst he could have gotten 8-10 minutes a night on the court learning. If it was one year left, and they panicked and took the deal, ok. They had time to get a MUCH better offer and still make a run at this season in the process. They ended up screwing up both.

Now, they may turn 12 into something, and Lamb may come in better next year and they move on, still, they had time. Lots of time. They should have been more patient.

 

[pmatic]

View media item 408828
"Competitive balance"

 

[IATT]

^ we also have another future 1st from dallas.. and the bobcats 2nd this year

but anyways, lamb not getting any burn falls on brooks.. hell, brooks had harden playing less than 30 mins per when he was with us

i'll never understand him..

the best OKC could offer was 4 years 60 (since they had already given their 5 year to westbrook).. but i dont think harden really would have accepted that even if it was offered by OKC, considering they did offer 4 years 55-56.. but that's just my personal belief

also, like i said above i think the off the court stuff played a roll in it too (like whatever was going on with him and trina off the court during the finals.. and all the pics that get out with him partying)

 

[bigmike23]

Naw man, that's with 1 year on the clock, they had TWO.

Regardless of years, KMart, Lamb, and a Toronto pick is not even the best trade on the table.

1. harden was going to be a FA this offseason

2. what was the better deals?

 

[IATT]

^ harden would have been a restricted free agent this summer.. so the thunder could have matched whatever offer harden would have recieved on the open market (see eric gordon)

but these are the trades as they have been rumored:

THE TRADE WE GOT: martin, lamb, toronoto 1st (top 3 protected), dallas 1st (top 20 protected until 201 and the bobcats 2nd

warriors: klay and we would have had to take on other contracts (not sure if draft picks or whatever else would have been included)

okc called the wizards about a deal for beal and draft picks.. or something.. but the wizards turned it down..

okc was essentially looking for something similar to what they got from the rockets.. a vet that could be a bandaid for the year, a young piece and draft pick(s)

 

[bigmike23]

^ harden would have been a restricted free agent this summer.. so the thunder could have matched whatever offer harden would have recieved on the open market (see eric gordon)

thats my point he was going to get a huge offer from houston or the suns and OKC didnt want to go through that.

 

[datznasty]

No matter what offer he signed, if OKC matched, it would be the 4 yr ~60mil figure