The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion

[pmatic]

@tomhaberstroh Per @ESPNStatsInfo, Anthony Davis first to go 25+, 15+ and 9+ blocks in a season opener. Not a bad start.

 

[CP1708]

About that 19 win projection......

 

[champcruthik]

Wow, that one is really pessimistic on Charlotte. 32-50?

Agreed. Doesn't make sense Charlotte is projected to lose 11 games more than last season. They added Stephenson, Hairston, and Vonleh. I'm seeing in the range of 45-48 wins.

 

[jpzx]

Tom Haberstroh @tomhaberstroh
Woahhh. New SportVU stats. LeBron shot 65% last season when he was "very tightly" defended + 57% when "wide open." on.nba.com/1yI5Civ

 

[do work son]

Don't you dare post this in the other thread. "I don't need advanced stats to tell me LeBron shoots a high percentage!!!!"

 

[worldbeefreeg]

Ehh, not that surprising considers he is pretty much the most prolific rim scorer since Jordan. LeBron is so unbelievable in the paint where he's allways going to be guarded "tightly." He's a good shooter now but it's achilles heel if it could even be considered one which it can't.

Excited for tonight. Bron and Love are going to be really special to watch this season I think.

 

[pmatic]

Pelton:

OKC crushed by Westbrook injury

An Oklahoma City Thunder team that has been battered by injuries early in the 2014-15 season suffered another blow Thursday when All-Star guard Russell Westbrook fractured the second metacarpal in his right hand during the Thunder's loss to the Los Angeles Clippers in L.A.

Let's break down what Westbrook's injury means for Oklahoma City, which is already playing without 2013-14 MVP Kevin Durant and five other players.

How long might Westbrook be out?

Westbrook's injury is a relatively uncommon one. Most players who suffer hand injuries fracture their fifth metacarpal -- the bone that connects the pinky finger to the hand. Westbrook has a small fracture of his second metacarpal, connecting to the index finger. The only two players in my injury database to fracture their second metacarpal were San Antonio Spurs guard Danny Green (last season) and former Dallas Mavericks guard Rodrigue Beaubois (in 2012-13).

Green missed three weeks and 10 games with a non-displaced fracture. Beaubois was sidelined for the final month of the regular season after undergoing surgery, and it's unclear how much longer he might have been out. We'll know more about how Westbrook's injury compares to those precedents after he undergoes a full examination.

How does that match up with the rest of the Thunder's injuries?

The only good news for Oklahoma City is that Reggie Jackson should be back soon. Westbrook's backup, who effectively filled in when Westbrook underwent knee surgery last season, did not travel for the current road trip after spraining his ankle in practice but could return as soon as Saturday's game with the Denver Nuggets.

The Thunder desperately need Jackson, since they won't be eligible to add a 16th player to their roster using the NBA's hardship exception until after Saturday's game. The league requires four players to miss at least three games before allowing a team to exceed the roster limit. Oklahoma City could add another point guard, since Sebastian Telfair is the only fully healthy player at the position on the roster and Jeremy Lamb should also return soon to add wing depth.

Eventually, the Thunder might be eligible for a 17th roster spot because Durant, Westbrook, Grant Jerrett, Mitch McGary and Anthony Morrow all could remain sidelined. There's precedent for two injury exceptions, which the Portland Trail Blazers received during the 2009-10 season.

No exception, however, will bring Durant or Westbrook back sooner. That means Oklahoma City faces the daunting prospect of playing without either star for an extended stretch. As noted by ESPN's Royce Young, the Thunder have played just one game in franchise history without both players: a 101-83 road victory over the Boston Celtics last January.

Can Oklahoma City survive without its stars?

Not likely. It was one thing when Durant (last season) or Westbrook (the plan entering this season) could shoulder a heavier share of the offense in the other's absence. Losing both players puts immense pressure on Jackson, Serge Ibaka and role players to create their own offense.

Last season, the Thunder's likely starting lineup without Westbrook combined for a usage rate of just 77.0 percent of the team's plays while on the floor, leaving nearly a quarter of all plays unaccounted. That's about how much each Oklahoma City player will have to increase his involvement in the offense on average to fill in for both Durant and Westbrook, which figures to take a toll on their efficiency.

Jackson has the best chance of stepping up. His usage rate (22.6 percent of plays) was the highest for any Thunder player besides Durant and Westbrook, and Jackson was assisted on just 29 percent of his field goals last season, per NBA.com/Stats. (Ibaka was assisted on 80 percent of his.)

Still, it's going to be a struggle to score. In fact, my SCHOENE projection system forecasts an Oklahoma City lineup with neither Durant nor Westbrook to rate 29th in the NBA offensively, ahead of only the Philadelphia 76ers.

If the Thunder are going to survive, it will be with the kind of defense they played Thursday night in L.A. Even with Perry Jones' career-high 32 points, Oklahoma City scored just 94.7 points per 100 possessions, a rate that would rank last in the league by a mile. Yet the Thunder were a 3-pointer away from forcing overtime by virtue of holding the Clippers to sub-40 percent shooting.

Realistically, Oklahoma City could go somewhere around 4-10 over the next four weeks if Westbrook is sidelined that long. Any wins this M.A.S.H. unit can pick up will be crucial in terms of playoff positioning. As long as Durant and Westbrook return on schedule and the Thunder play at their usual 60-win clip when healthy, Oklahoma City still has a shot at home-court advantage in the first round. But an inevitable slow start might make it impossible to climb into the conference's top two or three spots, and losses against Western Conference rivals now could factor into tie-breaking scenarios at the end of the season.

Ruh roh.

 

[do work son]

Could've have happened to a finer ownership group

 

[pmatic]

@forumbluegold Lakers currently worst in: points allowed per game, DEff, FG% & eFG% allowed. Also allowing most 3pt FGA per game on 43.6%. Bad times.

Math.

 

[do work son]

Ughhh when are they going to fire dantoni

 

[pmatic]

Haberstroh:

Ariza, D driving Houston's hot start

The question, admittedly, was a dumb one considering who was being asked.

The Houston Rockets had just dismantled the Miami Heat in AmericanAirlines Arena on Tuesday night to become this season's first 5-0 team. After the game, I asked Rockets coach Kevin McHale if he thought that people were sleeping on his team a bit this season after famously getting left at the altar by Chris Bosh this summer and parting ways with Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin.

The response was classic McHale, who has long shown little tolerance for media prodding and perception.

"I don't know," McHale said, shaking his head. "I'm going to be sleeping in about 45 minutes. That's the only sleep I'm worried about."

We laughed. He continued.

"I don't know, man," McHale said. "Let me tell you something -- this is the truth, too -- I don't care what anybody thinks. Why would I care what you thought? I don't care about anything. I care about what we do in that locker room with our guys. All that caring goes away as soon as you step on that floor. Then you have to go out there and compete."

Fair enough. Point taken. Nonetheless, the Rockets understand how events unfolded this summer might have looked on the outside. They reportedly told Parsons that they'd match any offer made in restricted free agency and then didn't. They frantically dumped Lin's contract on the Los Angeles Lakers along with a 2015 first-round pick to create cap space to sign Bosh; Bosh didn't sign. It seemed GM Daryl Morey, famously nicknamed "Dork Elvis" by Bill Simmons, had outsmarted himself.

But look at the Rockets now. They've won each of their first five games with eerily symmetrical dominance: 108-90, 104-93, 104-90, 104-93 and 108-91. They've trailed for just 12 percent of their in-game action this season, the lowest rate in the NBA. It's statistically the best five-game start in franchise history. They've outscored opponents by 71 points, the widest margin in the five instances the team has jumped out to a 5-0 record.

However, the way they're winning is more interesting than the actual record itself. The Rockets have strangled opponents on the defensive end. No one should be mapping out a parade route after limiting the Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers, but the Heat had been shredding opponents until running into Dwight Howard and Houston's revamped defense with 3-and-D specialist Trevor Ariza. The Heat scored just 36 points in the second half, even if it was the Rockets who were the ones playing on the second night of a back-to-back.

To Morey, who watched amid the sold-out crowd opposite Heat president Pat Riley and Lakers legend Magic Johnson on Tuesday night, this is all according to plan. So far.

"First of all, it's really early," Morey said. "But to be a championship contender, we knew we had to become a top defense. We thought [Patrick] Beverley, Trevor [Ariza] and Dwight [Howard] would anchor a top defense, and so far, so good."

The Rockets aren't missing Parsons. Not yet anyway. The early returns are promising: Last season, the Beverley-Parsons-Howard trio averaged 103.2 points allowed every 100 possessions. This season, it's down to 90.2 points every 100 possessions with Beverley-Ariza-Howard. Not a bad start.

In Tuesday's game, Ariza shut down Dwyane Wade in the fourth quarter, holding him to 0-of-3 shooting and causing two turnovers when the Heat needed Wade's playmaking most. Pulling up for airball 3-pointers, Wade wanted nothing to do with Ariza's mobility and length. On one particular play, Ariza poked the ball out from Wade, went down to the other end and pulled up for a dagger 3 in transition to put the Rockets up 103-86. Wade left the game on the next play.

Ariza was, once again, brilliant. He currently leads the NBA in 3-point field goals and field-goal attempts (21-of-35), making 60 percent of his shots from deep. That's not sustainable, but it's worth pointing that out that he's improved his 3-point conversion rate in each of the last three seasons to end up at 40.7 percent in 2013-14. The Rockets did their homework this offseason to make sure Ariza's production in Washington wasn't a contract-year blip.

"We definitely studied up on him," Morey said. "He wasn't a shooter when he came into the league, but he's Ray Allen-like with his routine. He puts in the work. He gets up more jumpers than I've ever seen here. And he made a ton of his 3s in transition where we think he'll thrive with us."

"Moreyball" has certainly rubbed off on Ariza's shot selection. In Ariza's last stint with Houston, 73.6 percent of his attempts came from the efficiency hot spots inside three feet or beyond the arc. So far this season? That number has soared to 86 percent. To us a golf analogy, it's either putts or drives off the tee. Almost never anything in between.

By anchoring the corner, Ariza has opened up more space for Harden and Howard. Last season, Ariza led the league in corner 3s (81), and he's splashed in 11 already, which is a higher total than 25 entire rosters around the league. Ariza made three from the right corner that probably haunted the Heat on their overnight trip to Charlotte.

"Oh, he had some crazy 3s," Howard said of Ariza after Tuesday's win. "But that's what he does. I'm happy to see he's found that shot. We came in together when we played in Orlando and just to see the way he's shooting the ball now, it just amazes me. Real happy for Trevor."

To wit, Ariza never made a single 3-pointer in 89 games next to Howard in Orlando. Not one. He finished his Orlando stint with 0-for-9 shooting from downtown.

It's hard to imagine a better start for Ariza in his second go-around with the Rockets. After trading him away to New Orleans in 2012, the Rockets signed him to a four-year, $32 million front-loaded contract that will offer the Rockets some flexibility to chase free agents down the line. Meanwhile, Parsons will be making almost twice Ariza's salary this season ($14.7 million versus $8.5 million).

Yes, the Rockets have had a soft schedule so far. But blowing out the Utah Jazz and Heat on their home floors on the second night of a back-to-back shouldn't be taken lightly. The road gets tougher from here as the Rockets visit San Antonio on Thursday. But if Ariza can fill Parsons' void and continue locking down the perimeter, don't sleep on the Rockets in the championship hunt.

News and notes

• We can't prove that the grueling schedule has exacerbated the Oklahoma City's sad line of injury woes. Call me soft, but watching Perry Jones III, who eventually left Tuesday's game after bumping his knee (again), and Reggie Jackson limp around the floor the last couple games has kind of made me sick to my stomach. Tuesday was the Thunder's fifth game in seven nights, which seems like cruel and unusual punishment in light of their recent injuries. Of course, no one could have predicted their battered bodies, but the NBA schedule has offered no opportunities for rest or recovery. No wonder some of the world's top sports scientists have avoided the NBA.

• Look at the Wizards! Washington has been notoriously bad out of the gate over and over again, reminding me of Sideshow Bob trying to maneuver his way around rakes. The Wiz started 2-7 last season, 0-12 in 2012-13, 0-8 in 2011-12 and 1-4 in 2010-11. But with a big win against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night, the Wizards open the season 3-1 without Bradley Beal. Paul Pierce has fit in seamlessly so far at the 3 and helped with the playmaking in Beal's absence.

• Side rant: Why do we still rely on counting by hand for five-second calls? It's 2014. The NBA has put $15 million in a high-tech replay system that might or might not be slowing the game down, but we can't figure out how to accurately count to five? The Knicks-Hornets late-game debacle should have never happened.

• Today's trivia question: Who has led the NBA in charges taken over the last three seasons?

 

[pmatic]

Moar Rockets:

The Houston Rockets are Shooting Threes at an Absurd Pace

Last we left the Houston Rockets this offseason, they were at a crossroads in their franchise development. They had unloaded Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin to clear cap space, then were spurned by Chris Bosh in free agency. Chandler Parsons also left for rival Dallas and they ended up signing a major deal with Trevor Ariza … for a second time.

The common narrative – and yes, it was a much-stated narrative – was that perhaps stats wizard Daryl Morey had over-thought matters. He had made his team worse out of a fanciful dream of adding a third star to the core of Dwight Howard and James Harden. He had sabotaged his short-term for some unknown long-term.

Well, all that talking only means so much. Let’s ask Twitter to see how things are going for the Rockets through five games:

@Jonathan_Feigen The Rockets will be the 1st tm to ever begin a season scoring more than 100 points in every game while holding opponents to fewer than 100.

Oh. OK. That’s neat.

@mynewhate According to http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/shooting/?DistanceRange=By Zone&LastNGames=1 … the Rockets took 2 mid range shots today

Sounds about normal. Proceed.

@AlexKennedyNBA Houston is just the second team in NBA history to start a season with five straight wins by more than 10 points. Other is 1985-86 Nuggets.

Good god almighty.

Yes, you read that correctly. The Rockets, those poor sad Rockets that missed out on a superstar and lost three key rotation players, are currently the NBA’s best team. It’s very, very early, but they’re not just beating opponents, they’re destroying them. And they’re doing it in uber-Morey fashion.

Thus far, they’re taking an earth-shattering number of three pointers. In five games, 10 percent more of their field goal attempts are occurring beyond the arc. And they already led the league in this category last season!

This three-point attempt increase is not coming entirely from fewer inefficient two-point dead zone shots. Instead, the Rockets are currently only at a league average pace in attempting shots inside the restricted area. They’re now focusing the aspects of “Morey Ball” as merely a relationship between fewer bad twos and more threes, not necessarily also including more good twos in the conversation. What could be the cause of this?

To a certain extent, it is possible Morey and Houston learned this from their D-League Rio Grande Valley Vipers. As Grantland’s Jason Schwartz and Kirk Goldsberry shared in February, this squad was very much used for experimental purposes. They shot a staggering 47 percent (!) of their attempts from three last year. Yes, they also took 38 percent from the restricted area – thus, only 15 percent from other twos – but the three rate was the most astounding number.

On another hand, maybe coach Kevin McHale just realized the inefficiency of dumping the ball into the post to Dwight Howard so frequently. Synergy Sports Technologies might not be public anymore, but those possessions certainly weren’t as efficient as a three-point shot or a Harden drive. You’ll just have to trust me there, sans easy-to-pull data.

And finally, the swap from Parsons to Ariza might also have led to a strategy change for more threes. Ariza was way more efficient – perhaps thanks to John Wall’s corner three passing – as a long-range shooter in Washington. He’s been scorching hot so far and is taking 70 percent of his shots from three. Could he just be getting better and better?

@WFNYJacob A reminder about Trevor Ariza:
Before Washington: 31.7% on 2.8 3PA per 36.
With Washington: 39.3% on 5.6 3PA per 36.

To top it all off, Harden is currently averaging 12.8 free throw attempts per game, too. That number would rank ninth-highest in NBA history, let alone for 25-year-old 6-foot-6 shooting guards. And perhaps most impressive of all is Houston’s defense, currently ranking fifth in the defensive rating category at 95.5. Last year’s 103.2 mark wasn’t terrible, but at 12th in the league, it wasn’t going to be good enough to be for true contender status.

While we’ll see if that defense and free throw rates can hold, it’ll be most fascinating to keep an eye on Houston’s shot distribution long term. They’re trading short attempts for more and more long attempts. Morey Ball is evolving and the early results are certainly exhilarating.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/11/05/houston-rockets-shooting-threes-early-pace/

 

[antidope]

The Houston Rockets playing like how everyone uses them in NBA 2k

 

[do work son]

I'm not surprised at the 3 point shooting, I'm surprised at how quickly the defense looked better. Harden looks so much better, it's amazing

 

[pmatic]

@tomhaberstroh So for this season, Carmelo Anthony (!) has more assists (22) than Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters COMBINED (19).

 

[pmatic]

Golden Start: How Andrew Bogut Boosts the Warriors on Both Ends

The Golden State Warriors look awesome. Steve Kerr has the Dubs firing on all cylinders at both ends of the court. They are shooting the lights out, as per usual; an elite shooting club in all three ranges on the floor, they rank first in close-range shooting efficiency, fourth in midrange efficiency, and fifth in long-range efficiency. The Warriors also have the highest true shooting percentage in the NBA.

Their shot-making brilliance starts with “The Splash Brothers.” Both currently top-five scorers, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combine to average 53 points per game. Their backcourt, it’s safe to say, is in pretty good shape.

If the first week is any indication, though, the Warriors are more than just a pair of pretty jump-shooting guards. For the last few seasons, Golden State has struggled to blend all of the team’s talent together and fully realize its massive potential. To be fair, they’ve had injuries — especially Andrew Bogut injuries — but even then, their playoff exits always seemed to leave us wanting more.

Enter Kerr, supposed prodigy of both Phil and Pop. Early indications suggest that at least some of that prodigal hype is warranted. In the preseason, Kerr lauded Andrew Bogut’s abilities as a passer and discussed how Bogut will help the new-look offense: “Andrew’s one of the best passing centers in the league. He’s one of the best I’ve ever seen, and so for us to get him the ball on the elbows as a dribble-handoff guy, back-door-pass guy, that will be emphasized.”

Through a few games, they’ve done exactly that, making some gorgeous basketball in the process. This season, the Warriors guards are cutting more often and more intelligently than they have in the past, especially when the bigs have the ball. In this play, Bogut hands the ball off to Klay and then uses his giant frame to get Thompson a good look from the baseline.

In this instance from the preseason, the same Bogut-handoff action bests a couple of world champions, and Thompson drops in an easy layup.

In this last example, Bogut showcases that passing skill Kerr loves so much. While it looks like they’re about to run the same handoff action for Curry, instead of looping around for the handoff, he darts straight through the paint, and Bogut delivers him a picturesque bounce pass.

The Warriors’ guards were already a huge pain to defend, but if Kerr can design schemes that regularly get them quality looks like these, well, it’s not hard: Stephen Curry plus Klay Thompson plus open shots equals a fantastic offense.

You need more than an unstoppable offense to win a championship, though, and right now the Warriors defense looks awesome. Like, best-defense-in-the-league awesome. They rank first in defensive efficiency, giving up a paltry 91 points per 100 possessions. Through five games, Warriors opponents are attempting only 35 percent of their shots inside of 8 feet (second-least in the NBA) and 42 percent of their shots in the midrange (the second most). In other words, Warriors opponents are taking the “worst shots” on the floor on a regular basis.

And it all goes back to Bogut, one of the keys to their success on both ends. His screens, handoffs, and passing allow Kerr to add new cool wrinkles on the offense, while his intimidating size and defensive prowess keep opponents at bay on the other side.

Unfortunately, any conversation about the greatness of Bogut — and the greatness of the Warriors — always has to include his health. The guy is phenomenal, but he’s fragile. When Bogut’s in the game, he’s one of the most influential defenders in the league. When he’s not, the Warriors are, simply, easier to beat. As Harrison Barnes told the AP in the preseason: “It’s having one of the best defensive centers in the league there versus not having him there. It’s daylight and darkness.”

If it’s true that offense wins games and defense wins championships, then it might not really matter how good of a coach Kerr is. It might only matter whether Andrew Bogut is healthy enough to be on the court. Even though you can’t tell much after five games, Bogut has played in all of them. Kerr and the Warriors could not have asked for a better start.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/golden-start-how-andrew-bogut-boosts-the-warriors-on-both-ends/

 

[pmatic]

@samesfandiari Curry and Kobe lead NBA in scoring. Both have 138 points in 5 games. Curry has taken 31 less shots and 11 less FTs tho

 

[pmatic]

Pelton:

'The Brow' evolving into 'The King'

Tonight, Anthony Davis and LeBron James will meet in Cleveland, when Davis' New Orleans Pelicans face James' Cleveland Cavaliers. That might not be the last time their paths intersect in the near future, and not only in terms of the return matchup Dec. 12 in the Big Easy.

As both players age, it's seemingly inevitable that Davis will catch James, possibly sooner rather than later.

(Gradual) Decline of the King

Of all the explanations posited for James' slow start in his return to Cleveland, from his offseason weight loss to a hidden injury, the simplest one is his age. James will be 30 on Dec. 30, putting him firmly beyond the peak age for an NBA star. In general, NBA players appear to peak statistically at age 27, although it's more accurate to describe a peak range between ages 25 and 29.

While stars play by a slightly different set of rules, they too are generally in decline by age 30. Here's how the 12 players with at least 150 career wins above replacement player who have entered the league since 1990 have aged on average, as a percentage of their best single-season rating:

This group peaked at age 28, and just two of the players (point guards Jason Kidd and Steve Nash) enjoyed their best season after age 29.

As important as the concept of peak age is, a single aging curve obscures some of the important details about the aging process. Really, there are two effects battling against each other. Players peak athletically before age 27, but they continue to add skills and experience throughout their career.

To try to quantify the distinction, I separated statistics that largely measure athleticism (offensive rebound percentage, steal percentage and block percentage) from those that primarily measure learned skills (shooting, turnover percentage and foul percentage). Among players with careers of 10 years or longer, here are the average aging curves for both types of stats, along with the combination of the two.

The graph shows that athleticism-based stats (blue) generally peak at the start of a player's career and trend downward over time. Meanwhile, players continue to improve their skills and experience (red) until late in their careers. The green line approximates the overall aging curve. Before age 27, players gain more skills and experience than they lose athleticism. After this point, the athleticism drain causes them to decline.

That's generally what we've seen with James. His improvement as a shooter, along with the selectivity playing with great teammates in Miami afforded him, allowed James to become more efficient than ever deep into his 20s. We'll likely see that continue with the Cavaliers once James is comfortable with his new teammates -- and, perhaps more importantly, as the younger ones improve at running the offense.

At the same time, James' waning athleticism has manifested itself in weaker defensive stats, particularly in terms of blocked shots, and fewer offensive rebounds. It became clear during the Heat's 2014 playoff run that James wasn't merely coasting during the regular season. He isn't the same athlete he once was, and he shouldn't be expected to be. We're at the point where James' gains in skills and experience are unlikely to entirely overcome this drop-off.

The rise of Davis

The same aging curve working against James continues to push Davis inexorably toward superstardom. At 21, the Pelicans' big man needn't yet worry about losing athleticism, and he seems to improve his skills by the day. Early in the season, Davis leads qualified players in PER and win percentage (the equivalent per-minute WARP rating); he is second in win shares per 48 minutes and box plus-minus.

Davis will have a tough time sustaining some of his early numbers, most notably a substantial uptick in his block percentage from last season's league-leading mark that can be traced to a nine-block season opener. Other improvements are likely to be more sustainable, such as his increased usage rate and a drop in turnover rate. We'll see where that leaves Davis relative to James and Kevin Durant in the NBA's hierarchy of stars, once Durant has returned from the fractured bone in his foot that has sidelined him.

It's now clearer than ever that, barring injury, Davis is on track to become the league's best player.

And that moment, which once seemed distant in the future, might already be within view. It's simply a matter of time -- and age.

News and Notes

Which team has had the toughest schedule over the first two weeks of the NBA season? The chart at right shows the five hardest and easiest schedules in terms of points better than or worse than all average opponents, based on location and opponent performance this season.

• The Boston Celtics have played six teams that made the playoffs a year ago, and while the Indiana Pacers are no longer a challenging foe, the other five are off to above-average starts. The Oklahoma City Thunder have gotten no favor playing without Durant and Russell Westbrook, while the Golden State Warriors were the last undefeated team (until Sunday night) despite a tough slate. At the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Pistons haven't taken advantage of weak opposition, a troubling sign.

• With Golden State's loss at Phoenix, the league's longest winning streak now belongs to the 6-1 Toronto Raptors, who crushed the Philadelphia 76ers 120-88 for their fourth consecutive win. At plus-11.6 points per game, the Raptors also have the NBA's best point differential, and while blowing out the Sixers isn't much of an accomplishment, Toronto started the weekend with an impressive 103-84 win over the Washington Wizards. Though it's far too early to start booking travel north of the border for the late spring in anticipation of a deep Raptors playoff run, you might want to get your passport just in case.

• Whether Lakers fans would get free tacos (they did) wasn't the only reason to stay tuned to the closing moments of the Lakers' opening win Sunday night, a 107-92 victory over the Charlotte Hornets.

Down 17 with 2:41 left, Hornets coach Steve Clifford conceded by putting Bismack Biyombo and Gerald Henderson in the game. Biyombo had yet to play all season after losing his job as backup center to journeyman Jason Maxiell, while Henderson fell behind rookie P.J. Hairston in Clifford's rotation on Friday, getting a DNP-CD for the first time since his rookie season.


It's reasonable to guess that both Biyombo and Henderson could become trade candidates. While it's hard to imagine much interest in Henderson's contract -- which has a season-plus remaining and pays him $6 million a year -- Biyombo could be an interesting buy-low candidate with his expiring contract. Though Biyombo is one of the league's worst offensive players, he is a premier rim protector who could help a team like the Cavaliers.

• Link of the day: The D-League tipped off its 14th season Saturday, which meant the debut of former Grinnell College assistant David Arseneault Jr. as head coach of the Reno Bighorns, the Sacramento Kings' affiliate. The Grinnell system yielded a 158-135 loss to the Idaho Stampede with a box score that must be seen to be believed.

 

[CP1708]

Anthony Davis is NOT the 3rd best player in the NBA. Is that still a thing or we good now?

 

[bigmike23]

Anthony Davis is NOT the 3rd best player in the NBA. Is that still a thing or we good now?

so what is he then?

 

[CP1708]

Anthony Davis is NOT the 3rd best player in the NBA. Is that still a thing or we good now?

so what is he then?

Mike.......

 

[pmatic]

Breaking Down The Memphis Grizzlies’ Defense

Walking into the new season, the Memphis Grizzlies were not widely thought of in terms of being deep playoff contenders, and were not put in the class of the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder or the Los Angeles Clippers. However, even if it is still extremely early in the young season, the Grizzlies have supplied the rest of the league with a promising message: Challenge our defense at your peril.

With six impressive wins, Memphis have been one of the most feared defensive units in the NBA on a nightly basis. Their defense has allowed just 87.6 points per game in their seven games thus far, the best mark in the league, according to Basketball-Reference.com. In fact, they have held opponents under 90 points on four occasions thus far, including a 69-point effort against Charlotte that looked simply daunting. As a point of reference, the next team behind Memphis in points per game allowed is currently Houston, allowing 90.9 points on average.

Memphis have also been holding teams to just 92.6 points per 100 possessions. This ranks third the league, behind only Houston and Golden State, and a long way clear of fourth placed Milwaukee at 96.3. When they slow you down and force you into tough shots on every possession, getting open three pointers or drives to the lane against this Grizzlies defense is nearly impossible.

http://bballbreakdown.com/2014/11/10/breaking-down-the-memphis-grizzlies-defense/

 

[pmatic]

Haberstroh:

The evolution of Chris Bosh

Chris Bosh declared himself dead this summer. Or at least a version of himself -- the Toronto one.

"Everybody's like, 'We need CB4,'" Bosh said. "And I'm like, that's dead. He's dead. He's not coming back. This is me. I can't hold on to the past and think I'm going to be who I was back then. It's impossible. Because I'm much better now."

That was several months ago, before news hit that LeBron James would head back to Cleveland. That last line about Bosh being better is what he and coach Erik Spoelstra have been repeating ad nauseum since training camp began. While everyone wondered if Bosh could be the so-called Toronto Bosh again in LeBron James' absence, the team internally believed that would set the bar too low. He's better now, they insisted.

Hard to disagree with that now. Bosh has helped push the Heat to a 5-2 record with a big win on the road against Dallas on Sunday, the second night of a back-to-back. Bosh has been a monster in the early going, but have you seen the numbers so far? It's one thing to flirt with the 20-and-10 that he averaged in Toronto back in 2009-10, but it's another thing to duplicate them. Like, almost exactly.

Here are his per-game numbers this season compared to his final season in Toronto.

Chris Bosh 3.0

Season Team PTS REB AST FTA EFG% USG% TS%
2009-10 TOR 23.6 10.8 2.4 8.4 . 522 28.7 .592
2014-15 MIA 23.6 10.3 3.0 8.4 . 527 28.4 .602

Let those numbers sink in a bit. Same player, right? Wrong. On the surface, Bosh looks like he's back to being Toronto Bosh. His scoring rate and ability to get to the charity stripe is just about unchanged. His efficiency numbers and usage rate are pretty much carbon copies of one another. Rebounds? He's got 'em.

But look under the hood and you'll find a different player with a new set of weapons. Bosh 3.0 may be better than ever.

Bosh 3.0: now with more shooting

If you ask Bosh about his growth as a basketball player, the 3-point shot is the first thing he mentions. And with good reason. In just seven games this season, Bosh has already made more 3s (nine) than he did in the entire 2009-10 season with Toronto (eight). It's a role transformation, not necessarily an ability transformation. Bosh always had the range, but the Raptors kept him anchored on the elbows without much freedom to step beyond the 3-point arc where Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu, Jarrett Jack and Jose Calderon roamed.

Bosh was the dump-it-down-into-the-post weapon on the team. According to Synergy tracking, Bosh put up 600 points off of post-ups in 2009-10, which was the fourth most in the league behind Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson and Tim Duncan. But Bosh was the most efficient of any high-volume post player, scoring 1.09 points every post-up play (shot attempt, free throw or turnover). Believe it or not, Bosh scored more buckets on post-ups than Zach Randolph did.

Indeed, that Bosh is dead. Nowadays, Bosh finds himself more on the perimeter where he's an elite scoring threat -- especially from the top of the key. He's shooting 36 percent from deep, his highest rate since he adopted the shot. But he's not always beyond the arc. Take a look at the following heat maps generated by STATS LLC's SportVU cameras that illustrate where he has touched the ball this season compared to last season.

Although the SportVU cameras weren't installed in 2009-10, we can see that Bosh is spending more team on the right block this season (from the perspective of the point guard bringing up the ball). Notice he's spending less time in the right corner. That's where Spoelstra says he spaced him out with James occupying the left block.

As you can tell, Bosh is still holding residency in the top of the key, where he drove Tyson Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki crazy on Sunday night en route to 20 points on 7-for-10 shooting. Bosh is moving closer to the block a tad more this season, but it's not nearly Toronto levels. Indeed, SportVU has found that Bosh is averaging 3.7 touches in the post this season, compared to just 1.1 post touches last season. Bosh just about gave up that part of his game up in order to help maintain the Heat's spacing in previous seasons.

"People continued to criticize how he played the last four years and that's an absolute crying shame," Spoelstra said. "When you're talking about somebody who had a willingness to sacrifice to help our team. That's what pro sports should be about. Not about your numbers, not about being the No. 1 option or whatever it is."

Bosh has just about solidified himself as a No. 1 option again. He touches the ball a team-high 72.6 times per game, which is a smidge higher than Dwyane Wade's allotment even if you adjust for playing time. In fact, Bosh is getting 21.7 more touches per game than he did last season, which, according to the brilliant research of ESPN Stats & Info, is good enough to place him third in the league in touches per game among big men (see chart at right).

Bosh is doing everything, really. Passing, too. He has more games with at least four assists than he did all last season. But what's fascinating is that Bosh has maintained his efficiency from the Toronto Bosh days even though he's stepping back farther from the basket.

Sure, his field-goal percentage has dipped from 51.8 percent in 2009-10 to 48.6 percent so far this season. But once you account for the added value of a 3-pointer, he's effectively shooting 52.7 percent, which is slightly higher than his effective field-goal percentage in Toronto. If you want to get more granular, Bosh's average field-goal attempt is 14.4 feet away from the basket, which is about 6 feet farther than 2009-10 (8.8 feet) -- and amazingly, he's still hovering around 50 percent.

Offensively, this is why Bosh 3.0 is so different from Bosh 1.0 in Toronto. He's maintained his elite efficiency despite shooting much farther away, which helps pull opposing big men away from the basket.

"If they play off him, he's one of the very best perimeter shooters in the league," Spoelstra said. "If they guard him, that's where he's really unique because he has an ability to put the ball on the floor and put pressure on the defense."

Playing both ends of the floor

Speaking of defense, a question was posed to Bosh at Tuesday's practice ahead of Wednesday's tilt against the Indiana Pacers.

What was your priority defensively in Toronto?

"Get rebounds," Bosh deadpanned.

That's not far from the truth. The Raptors ranked dead last in defensive efficiency in 2009-10 and Bosh wasn't absolved from the blame. Bosh points to the instability at the coaching seat as one reason he never valued the defensive end.

"Everything was changing," Bosh said of his time in Toronto. "We switched coaches a lot so here it's more of a system. Different calls, different coverages."

That's not the case in Miami where Spoelstra has been at the helm for seven seasons. And Bosh has spent more time doing his homework and reading the scouting report.

"Here, it stays the same," Bosh said. "I know exactly how to guard things. I pretty much know damn near every play in the league. You figure out what's coming and tendencies and you put that together and you become a better defender."

According to Synergy Sports tracking, Bosh was the NBA's best pick-and-roll defender last season, holding opponents to just 33.8 percent shooting on scoring plays. In Toronto, he ranked below average in the same category. This season, Bosh continues to rank among the best in pick-and-roll coverage, thanks to his smarts and mobility. The Heat rank 18th this season, but are much better with Bosh on the floor.

"He will do whatever it takes to win," Spoelstra said. "He's proven that time and time again on his resumé. He commits as a two-way player, which is very tough to deal with in this league. 'CB' is a player of this new generation. More people will be comparing themselves to CB in the next generation than people will compare him to the last generation."

Remember when Bosh couldn't rebound? It's fascinating to look at how Bosh's board numbers have been affected in the context of his teammates. Bosh experienced the "Bargnani Effect" in Toronto where he saw his rebounding numbers soar. It went the other direction last season. Bosh averaged 8.6 rebounds per 36 minutes with James on the bench, compared to just 7.2 with him on the floor.

Those on/off numbers aren't a fluke. Interestingly enough, at Tuesday's practice Bosh said it was part of the game plan to help give James more boards.

"Sometimes, if [LeBron] had trouble, I would say, 'Hey man, come over the top because I'm going to box this guy out.'" Bosh said. "But now I have to do both."

Rebounding included, Bosh's numbers across the board are mimicking his Toronto days. We'll see if he can keep this up over the long haul. But Bosh 3.0 is differently the same. He's much more defensively focused these days. Although his block numbers are down (he has one swat all season), he boasts the lowest foul rate in the NBA (1.0 fouls every 36 minutes). Shooting 3s, defending at a high level and putting up a nightly 20-and-10, Bosh is redefining who he is and what it means to be a modern big man.

"We ask a lot of him," Spoelstra said. "He has to do all of it for us to be successful. He has to be able to guard pick-and-rolls -- 30 or 40 a night -- he has to often guard the best post-up threat, he has to help at the rim and be a rim-protector and, of course, he has to finish possession and rebound for us. Welcome to our world this year."

News and notes

• Kobe Bryant now holds the NBA's all-time record for most misses (13,421). He will still go down as one of the greatest ever, but he's chucking at record levels right now. Granted, it's just seven games in, but he's missing more shots per minute than any player in NBA history (see chart below). Said another way, he has 20 more missed field goals than any of his teammates have attempted this season. He's not going down without a fight.

• I'll echo the thoughts of renowned NBA bettor Haralabos Voulgaris about Anthony Davis. The SportVU cameras tell us that Davis averages 5.2 close touches per game, which ranks 25th in the NBA. How is that not higher? I mean, Tim Duncan averages twice as many in fewer minutes. It always seems New Orleans' ball-handlers look for Davis only as a bailout option when they foolishly leave their feet with nowhere to go and frantically chuck it in his general direction. Davis deserves better.

• This summer, the Minnesota Timberwolves hired former NBAer Mike Penberthy as a shooting coach primarily to help improve Ricky Rubio's jump shot. Before Saturday's game against the Heat, Penberthy casually took the floor after his team had finished warm ups and got some shots up. I've never seen anything like it. He's a machine. Not exaggerating, Penberthy must have hit 30 3-pointers in a row without any touching the rim. He made 10 in the right corner, then 10 on the right wing, then 10 at the top of the key. On his first try from the left wing from 3-point land, he missed. He laughed it off. Here's what Penberthy did next, just for good measure: he made the next 10 -- banking it off the backboard.

• This week's trivia question: Lots of talk about touches today. There are four rotation players in the NBA who touch the ball, on average, less than once per minute on the floor. One of those four players makes more than $10 million in salary this season. Who is it? (Last week's answer: Kyle Lowry with an NBA-high 127 charges over the last three seasons, according to Synergy tracking. Rubio and Ersan Ilyasova came in second and third, respectively.)

Bosh.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

He's a top 10 player again like he's always been, glad he's finally getting the recognition.

 

[bhzmafia14]

Yep, its crazy at the amount of disrespect Bosh got over the last 4 seasons.