The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion

[CP1708]

I don't know about 18 PPG tho, that's a bit much. He's been 15 and under even thru college, even with improvement, I don't know if his offensive skill goes up that much, even as a second-third option. If he can't create his own shot, he won't get to 18 I don't think.

 

[pmatic]

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[pmatic]

Haberstroh:

LeBron James-Dwyane Wade not working

If you were to design a co-pilot for LeBron James on the court, would it look anything like this version of Dwyane Wade?

That’s the question that keeps popping in my head as I watch a tentative James shy away from a packed paint in the Finals. Much of that unassertiveness could be attributed to James and whatever mental obstacles stand in his way from being the unmovable force that destroyed the league in the regular season.

But I’m not buying that the root of the problem is in James’ head.

Sure, the Spurs are playing off James when he has the ball, but if you watch the tape, something else becomes obvious:

The Spurs are completely ignoring Wade. And it’s killing the Heat’s spacing.

More often than not, when James controlled the ball on the perimeter, the man guarding Wade (usually Danny Green) would camp out in the paint and throw one more body in James’ way. Initially, the Heat were able to take advantage of the Spurs’ cheating by having Wade cut to the basket. But that synergy disappeared quickly.

What’s become painfully obvious the past few weeks is that the James-Wade partnership is not working. That doesn’t mean it can’t turn itself around in Game 4. But Wade’s compromised state has made him a liability on offense.

Wade is not a threat whatsoever from downtown, which was always the case, but he used to make his defender pay by blowing by him with a devastating first step. With a bruised right knee, that explosiveness has been defused, and it’s signaling to the Spurs that they can play off Wade without consequence.

In Game 3, the Heat were minus-30 with James and Wade on the court together and a not-so-abysmal minus-6 when they were apart. This is a growing trend. The Heat can’t seem to get anything going with James and Wade together.

For the postseason, the Heat have outscored opponents by a mere 3.3 points per 100 possessions with James and Wade on the court together, according to NBA.com. But when James is playing without Wade? That number skyrockets to 21.8 points per 100 possessions. Remember that 33-5 run in Game 2? James was leading a unit without Wade. That’s not a random blip.

It’s all about spacing. Beneath all the armchair psychology that will inevitably arise after Game 3, what’s really plaguing the Heat is that they have absolutely no spacing. Erik Spoelstra built an offense predicated on “pace-and-space” during the lockout, and it’s worked brilliantly when Wade has been healthy. But that’s not the case anymore. The Heat aren’t running, and they’re not able to afford each other the requisite real estate to operate.

Much of that has to do with Wade’s limited state. You can see it on film and in the numbers. According to NBA.com’s stats, just 37.8 percent of James’ field goal attempts occur in the restricted area when he’s playing next to Wade. But when Wade leaves the court, that portion soars to 44.9 percent. Want more evidence? James’ free throw attempts almost double from 5.5 per 36 minutes when Wade’s on the floor to 8.9 per 36 minutes when Wade’s on the bench. Prefer to use player efficiency rating? James has a 31.2 PER with Wade on the bench this postseason, but it plummets to 25.1 when he’s alongside Wade. James regular-season PER? 31.6, or just about the same as when Wade’s out of the picture.

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In other words, James shifts into attack mode when Wade is gone.

That’s likely a product of two things: 1) the Spurs can’t clog the paint as well when Wade is replaced by an all-time shooter like Ray Allen; and 2) James doesn’t have to worry about locking Wade out of the offense if he’s not on the court. That second factor is especially important after Wade complained about touches after Game 6 of the Indiana series.

Because of this dysfunctional relationship, it makes sense to consider whether Wade is better suited to come off the bench. Such a move would allow James to put pressure on a Spurs defense that is hell-bent on keeping the reigning MVP isolated out on the perimeter. The Spurs haven’t had nearly the same success when James works without Wade. It’s an extremely tiny sample size, but in the Finals, the Heat are scoring 139.1 points per 100 possessions in the 31 minutes when James runs the offense without Wade. That’s the juggernaut Heat we’re used to seeing.

James deserves much of the blame for not aggressively attacking the rim, but it’s not simply a matter of mental fragility. He has shown he can penetrate into the paint and lead the Heat offense. Just not when a hurt Wade gets in his way.

Pelton:

What's wrong with LeBron James?

In Tuesday's Game 3 of the NBA Finals, Gary Neal of the San Antonio Spurs had a "podium game" -- an unexpected appearance in the postgame news conference by a role player. LeBron James had the opposite. Somehow, after scoring 15 points on 7-of-21 shooting in a blowout loss, the league's reigning MVP and Finals MVP wasn't among the Miami Heat players who were brought out to speak to the media. Clearly, James is off his game. Does that say more about him or the Spurs' defense? Let's take a look at the numbers.

The signs of trouble

The James we've seen in the Finals so far is very different from the version who led the Heat to a 66-16 record and an Eastern Conference title. James has scored a combined 50 points in the past three games, his lowest three-game stretch of the season. Just twice before -- centered on back-to-back games in mid-March in which he combined for 28 points -- has James been held to fewer than 60 points over a three-game stretch this season.

Even when James has slumped as a scorer, rarely has it lasted this long. The last time he was held to fewer than 20 points in three consecutive games was another NBA Finals matchup with a team from Texas -- 2011 against the Dallas Mavericks, when James totaled 42 points in Games 3-5 of the Heat's Finals loss.

Of course, looking at all three games does James a disservice. Through the first two games of the series in Miami, he was making the right plays against a San Antonio defense designed to keep him out of the paint, as reflected by his combined 17 assists. With the glaring exception of the fourth quarter of Game 1, Miami was happy with the results. The attention the Spurs placed on James opened things up for his teammates.

Something different happened in Game 3, particularly after halftime. James handed out five assists, just one of them after halftime -- and that one set up a Chris Bosh midrange jumper, not the high-percentage 3-pointers and finishes at the rim the Heat count on him to create.

At the same time, James was less efficient offensively. He shot 7-of-21 (.333) from the field, his third-lowest percentage in any game in 2012-13. Just twice before had James missed at least 14 shot attempts -- a 14-of-31 effort in a January loss at Boston and an 8-of-22 outing at Cleveland in March.

To that, add the incredible stat that James failed to reach the free throw line for the first time since December 2009. According to Basketball-Reference.com, James had been held without a foul shot eight times before in his career -- half of them during his rookie season.

When the inaccurate shooting is combined with the missing free throws, James' true shooting percentage during Game 3 (.357) was not only his worst of the season (previously .412 in a January loss at Portland) but his worst since -- you guessed it -- the 2011 Finals, when his eight-point Game 4 produced a .312 true shooting percentage.

Diagnosing the problem

There are two factors in James' poor shooting numbers in this series -- the types of shots he's getting and the rate at which he's hitting those shots.

We can assess the former by looking at the percentage of James' shots that have come from various spots on the floor, according to NBA.com/stats. By walling off the paint, San Antonio has taken the Indiana Pacers' effort to keep James away from the rim one step further. After taking 41.3 percent of his shots in the restricted area around the basket during the regular season, James got just 35.0 percent of his shots there in the Eastern Conference finals. During this series, that's all the way down to 28.3 percent.

On the rare occasions James has gotten to the rim -- often in transition -- he's actually making his attempts at a better rate than usual. James is 12-of-15 (.800) there in this series, superior to his .750 accuracy around the basket in the regular season. But because James is so much better at the rim than anywhere else on the floor, limiting his attempts is more important than cutting down on his percentage.

The extra shots have been shifted outside, although maybe not as far as you think. More than any other spot, James has increased his attempts from inside the paint but outside the restricted area. (Surprisingly, James didn't take more of these shots than usual against Roy Hibbert and the Pacers.) Despite their relative closeness, those aren't usually great shots; James made them at an even 50 percent clip during the regular season. He's also taking slightly more 3-pointers and midrange jumpers.

If James were making these same shots at his regular-season rates, he would be shooting 51.9 percent from the field in this series -- down from his 56.4 percent mark from the regular season, certainly, but also far better than the 38.9 percent he's actually shooting.

That analysis suggests the bigger problem for James is shot making, not the shots he's taking. Besides the rim area, James has been less accurate from every other location on the court than during the regular season.

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At this point, the explanation starts to become more of a guessing game. If the Spurs are giving James open midrange jumpers by playing off him defensively and going under screens, why would he make them at a lower rate than he usually does against more defensive pressure?

Part of the issue might be that James is making these plays off the dribble or from a standstill rather than in the flow of the offense. None of the six makes he does have from between the restricted area and the 3-point line has come off a catch-and-shoot situation. Then again, based on his regular-season rates, only one of those shots would have been set up by an assist. So this difference is probably not meaningful.

Teammate Dwyane Wade pointed out postgame that San Antonio's strategy may be causing James to second-guess himself.

"Their defensive scheme, it's to go under a lot of the pick-and-rolls, to play off a lot," Wade said. "And when they do that, you have the shot most of the time. So it takes away some of your aggressiveness at times, because you have the shot that you can make in your sleep, and you're like, 'I'm going to shoot it,' and then it don't go in. But you have to keep shooting it."

For a player of James' caliber, continuing to shoot when open is the only choice. Miami has to hope that his shots go in at their usual rates starting in Game 4.

 

[pmatic]

Nate Silver:

Heat’s Clutch Stats Meet Match in Spurs’ Strategy

The Miami Heat were heavy betting favorites over the San Antonio Spurs before the N.B.A. finals began, despite computer rankings that showed the teams to be relatively even.

There were several reasons for this. First, the Heat were scheduled to have home-court advantage in four of the seven games. Second, the Heat won more games during the regular season, 66 to San Antonio’s 58. (The reason the teams’ computer rankings were about equal is because San Antonio played a considerably tougher schedule.)

But there was also the notion that the Heat had another gear — that they could elevate their performance to close out a game or a playoff series when they needed to. Now, down two games to one in the series and facing elimination if they lose games four and five in San Antonio, Miami will need to find its best basketball.

The Heat’s record in critical situations in the regular season was, in fact, extraordinarily impressive. The N.B.A. keeps statistics on what it calls “clutch time” performance, which it defines as situations in the last five minutes of the game when the score is within five points or less. In these cases, representing 176 total minutes of play, the Heat outscored their opponents 427 to 294. That’s the equivalent of beating an opponent 116-80 per 48 minutes, the length of a full N.B.A. game.

Stat geeks like me default toward skepticism about the notion that certain teams or athletes perform especially well in the clutch. Numerous studies of baseball, for example, have found that clutch hitting is a largely random phenomenon. And studies of basketball have found that fans tend to overrate the notion of the “hot hand”, misinterpreting essentially random sequences of field goals and free throws as being deeply meaningful.

At the same time, the case for clutch performance is perhaps stronger in the National Basketball Association than in any other sports league — and may reflect rational decision-making by teams and players as much as psychological factors. The N.B.A. has an extremely long season. It is considerably more physically demanding than a sport like baseball. And unlike N.H.L. players, who take shifts on the ice, the best N.B.A. players are on the court for the vast majority of the game. So N.B.A. players need to pace themselves — and it makes sense for them to conserve the most effort for when they have the most on the line.

Is there any evidence that the Heat do this more effectively than other N.B.A. teams? An N.B.A. team that wanted to maximize its number of regular-season wins would put more effort into games that it expected to be the closest. It could slack off some in games it was almost certain to win — for instance, in a home game against the Charlotte Bobcats — while perhaps being willing to concede some games in which it would be a clear underdog even if it played its best.

I went back through this year’s N.B.A. regular-season schedule and estimated the probability that each team would win each game on the basis of the teams’ power ratings and which team had home-court advantage. I then identified the games that projected to be the most competitive — those where neither team had better than a two-in-three chance (or worse than a one-in-three chance) of winning. These cases represent the rough equivalent of games in which neither team would be favored by more than four points in the point spread.

The Heat played in 21 such games during the regular season. Essentially, these were the toughest games on their schedule — road games against other playoff-bound teams, especially from the Western Conference, or home games against the very best teams in the league like San Antonio. (In only one instance — a road game in Oklahoma City in February — were the Heat assigned less than a one-in-three chance of winning, according to the formula. This game is excluded from the analysis, although the Heat won it 110-100.)

How well did the Heat do in these games? They went 14-7, winning two-thirds of the time. That reflects the best winning percentage in the league in games that seemed like even matchups on paper. Miami also outscored their opponents by a margin of 3.3 points in these games.

One qualification is in order: although these games were, by definition, relatively even, the Heat still rated as slight favorites in most of them, and would have projected to go somewhere between 11-10 and 12-9 in them on the basis of their overall power rating. So we’re talking about two or three extra wins, which is statistically not all that definitive.

Nevertheless, the evidence is consistent with the notion that Miami was saving its best performances for when it had the most to gain or lose – and the implication is that computer ratings that weight all games equally may underrate the Heat when it comes to key games.

So why hasn’t Miami’s performance carried forward into the playoffs? Actually, the Heat were doing just fine – until they encountered the Spurs.

San Antonio did not perform especially well in even-strength matchups during the regular season, going 13-14 in these games. However, under their coach, Gregg Popovich, the Spurs take the notion of timing their players’ performances to the extreme, resting their veteran stars whenever they can during the regular season to preserve their fitness for the playoffs – even at the price of drawing fines from the N.B.A. commissioner, David Stern.

Tim Duncan, for example, averaged only 25 minutes per game during the regular season (accounting for the fact that he sat out 13 games entirely) – but has played 34 minutes per game in the playoffs. Tony Parker’s minutes have increased to 36 per game from 27, while Manu Ginobili is playing 25 minutes per game instead of just 17. Although Miami’s “Big Three” – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh – are also playing more minutes per game, the increased playing time for the Spurs’ stars is far more dramatic.

If Miami loses the series, there are sure to be questions about whether the Heat burned themselves out during the regular season. But Miami may be every good as their 66-16 record implies, and perhaps even better in key games.

The Spurs, however, are practically a whole different team during the postseason. On the basis of John Hollinger’s Wins Added statistic, I estimate that the playing time allocations the Spurs are using in the playoffs make them the equivalent of 14 wins stronger than their record suggested during the regular season — tantamount to adding a star player like Blake Griffin to their lineup. Who needs clutch players when you have Popovich’s clutch strategy?

Link

 

[CP1708]

Who needs clutch players when you have Popovich’s clutch strategy?

See?

Again with that ********.

Pop been doin this same stuff FOR YEARS and it ain't work then. Now it works for a season and he's a mastermind.

 

[worldbeefreeg]

He is a mastermind though. Coach's can only do so much with the talent they have, he is going to go down as the greatest basketball strategist ever like it or not.

 

[antidope]

Read the second article, saw that Utah and Brooklyn were on the list of teams of comparable skill to Miami, lauged the hardest laugh that has ever been laughed

 

[pmatic]

View media item 453336
Mike Miller with Bosh-LeBron-Wade-Chalmers:
In the playoffs: +9 in 22 minutes.
In the Finals: +3 in 12 minutes.

Udonis Haslem with Bosh-LeBron-Wade-Chalmers:
In the playoffs: +35 in 277 minutes.
In the Finals: -18 in 43 minutes.

 

[CP1708]

He is a mastermind though. Coach's can only do so much with the talent they have, he is going to go down as the greatest basketball strategist ever like it or not.

So, he used the exact same strategy when he got beat by Scott Brooks, Alvin Gentry and Lionel Hollins, it's the players.
If he wins with that same strategy (and he hasn't, yet) against an ailing Wade-Spo, that's Pop, (not the players) and he's the greatest basketball strategist ever.


K.

 

[JD617]

Read the second article, saw that Utah and Brooklyn were on the list of teams of comparable skill to Miami, lauged the hardest laugh that has ever been laughed

When Utah and Brooklyn are playing at home they have at least a 33% chance of beating Miami which is how the list was calculated. It's not about those teams being as good as Miami.

 

[clyde the glide]

So, he used the exact same strategy when he got beat by Scott Brooks, Alvin Gentry and Lionel Hollins, it's the players.
If he wins with that same strategy (and he hasn't, yet) against an ailing Wade-Spo, that's Pop, (not the players) and he's the greatest basketball strategist ever.


K.

the hate is strong here.  pop has done more with less than phil jack has or ever will.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

He is a mastermind though. Coach's can only do so much with the talent they have, he is going to go down as the greatest basketball strategist ever like it or not.

So, he used the exact same strategy when he got beat by Scott Brooks, Alvin Gentry and Lionel Hollins, it's the players.
If he wins with that same strategy (and he hasn't, yet) against an ailing Wade-Spo, that's Pop, (not the players) and he's the greatest basketball strategist ever.


K.

It's basketball, when the other team has better players you should lose. Eric Spolostra has a championship ring.

This is the NBA dudes like Danny Green and Gary Neal don't become what they are under good coaches, it takes a great one.

Keep hating though.

 

[sorkoram]

Miller is better than what most give him credit for. Rebounds, sets hard screens, and can get buckets. Miami was dominant with him in the starting lineup this season and he looked more than competent. Thanks for the Haberstroh article.

 

[CP1708]

He is a mastermind though. Coach's can only do so much with the talent they have, he is going to go down as the greatest basketball strategist ever like it or not.

So, he used the exact same strategy when he got beat by Scott Brooks, Alvin Gentry and Lionel Hollins, it's the players.
If he wins with that same strategy (and he hasn't, yet) against an ailing Wade-Spo, that's Pop, (not the players) and he's the greatest basketball strategist ever.


K.

It's basketball, when the other team has better players you should lose. Eric Spolostra has a championship ring.

This is the NBA dudes like Danny Green and Gary Neal don't become what they are under good coaches, it takes a great one.

Keep hating though.

No, I know. Memphis as an 8 seed without Rudy Gay and no homecourt is certainly an example.

Or the Thunder down 0-2 with no homecourt, but they have 3 young guys and Scott Brooks.


You really got me pegged tho. My logic is ridiculous and without so much as a shred of examples.

 

[worldbeefreeg]

Your not pointing out weaknesses thoug you are just saying they lost without actually pointing out how he messed up in that series so you come off as just blindly hating.

 

[clyde the glide]

u cant knock him for losing to the thunder.  memphis maybe but from what i remember that team was no ordinary 8 seed.

 

[CP1708]

Your not pointing out weaknesses thoug you are just saying they lost without actually pointing out how he messed up in that series so you come off as just blindly hating.

Ok, that I can see. Yes, I don't have the examples of case by case, I only have the results. But there's no way for me to remember every move for a 15 year career either.

What I do remember is the resting guys in November, etc and then it not working at year end. I point that out, I'm a hater.
NOW it works out, everyone gives him this praise, I point that out, I'm a hater.

My simple point is, why everyone caught in the moment? Look at my man above throwin Danny Green and Neal at me? Why those two names? Cuz it happened 36 hours ago, that's why.


Why they lose in 2009-2010-2011?????? His reply: Manu was hurt.





I'll just get in line with the rest of the sheep tho, make sure i fit in.

While I'm here, George Karl is a great coach too. Tremendous. Don't eem worry bout that playoff record, he's awesome.

 

[pmatic]

The Grizzlies in 2011 had a chance to get as high as the six seed the last week of the season (bhz?), but blatantly tanked the last two games of the regular season to match up with the Spurs in the playoffs.

As for the series between them: Manu missed game one, Gasol-Randolph abused the bigs, Bonner couldn't defend anyone, Splitter wasn't ready to play meaningful minutes, Hill-Jefferson stunk and basically all the games were close except for the fourth quarter of game four and the closing minutes of game six.

 

[datznasty]

u cant knock him for losing to the thunder.  memphis maybe but from what i remember that team was no ordinary 8 seed.

Before the Thunder backdoor swept them, people were calling that team one of the best of all time. They had just won 20 straight to include sweeping the first 2 rounds and the first 2 games of the WCF to get to that point. Brooks finally makes a few simple adjustments, Thabo on TP and switch pick and rolls, and all of a sudden they're wheels fall off and everybody is making excuses for them saying they're injured or old or whatever or looking at officiating.

 

[CP1708]

u cant knock him for losing to the thunder.  memphis maybe but from what i remember that team was no ordinary 8 seed.

So I can't knock him for losing to an 8 seed without one of their best players (albeit an overrated one), with Homecourt, while resting his guys all year just for the postseason

And then I can't knock him for losing a series up 2-0, after winning 20 straight, having a TON of rest, and HC in that one either?


Well hey, I guess he is above reproach then. My bad everyone, Pop is the best and never loses, to anyone.

 

[clyde the glide]

Before the Thunder backdoor swept them, people were calling that team one of the best of all time. They had just won 20 straight to include sweeping the first 2 rounds and the first 2 games of the WCF to get to that point. Brooks finally makes a few simple adjustments, Thabo on TP and switch pick and rolls, and all of a sudden they're wheels fall off and everybody is making excuses for them saying they're injured or old or whatever or looking at officiating.

yea i remember the spurs put on a clinic those first 2 games but u can never fault someone for losing to durant/westbrook/harden.  now if the thunder had lost u can fault scotty brooks all u want.  same way u cant fault frank vogel for losing to miami.  cant blame someone for losing to a team that has more talent than theirs.

 

[jpzx]

I know I'll be dubbed "a prisoner of the moment", but I've subscribed to this belief for years now.

Pop > Phil.

They're both tremendous coaches. The best of the best... don't get me wrong. The chance that we even have a good handle on who's better is probably awarding ourselves too much credit. We only can absorb what we glean from ESPN, watching the games, various stats/numbers/articles we read online, etc. I feel like I've heard people speak on NT of how the teams the Spurs have faced in the NBA Finals when they have won (Knicks, Nets, Pistons, Cavs) are feeble competition and that they had easy cakewalks once they reach the NBA Finals'. But... uh, the Lakers got to face the Nets, 76ers, and the Pacers (Indiana... a team nearly eliminated by the 8th seeded Bucks in the first round). Oh, and they also were washed in the 2004 Finals by the same exact team that the Spurs beat the following season in the Finals. That being said, the Jazz and Lakers in the 90s were legitimate opponents that Phil can boast about.

Coaching in the NBA is all about ego management. Popovich has been dealt a great cast of characters in his tenure, but the team's obedience to discipline, maturation, and keeping things in house needs to be attributed to him. He sets the environment, and the players always fall in line. Turmoil is not a thing in San Antonio. Players never speak ill of one another in the media, everything's kept in house. Pop never wrote a "tell all" book, and then proceeded to return and coach the same team with a number of the same players. It's about the game, and nothing else.

CP, the Spurs winning spaced apart titles rather than consecutive ones should be viewed as a positive more than anything. How many times do we see champions in professional sports all disband and go their separate ways after winning a title? They've got their ring, and now it's time to make their money. The core of that team has been together for over a decade now. :x Something the Lakers team of the late 90s and early 2000s will never be able to say. It's that Popovich Effect. Keeping the same guys focused on the same goal for over 10 years.

This being said, they need to finish off Miami.

 

[CP1708]

Yeaaaaaaah, and there is my point.

The legend of Pop is faaaaar bigger than the actual production of Pop. I rest my case.

 

[jpzx]

What?

 

[worldbeefreeg]

I agree but CP's panties are going to be in a bunch.

Already are...nevermind.