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The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion - Page 26

post #751 of 1014
....

Edited by Hsalem - 12/7/14 at 2:18pm
post #752 of 1014
If you look up, you might be able to see the joke still flying over your head.
Houston Rockets | Houston Texans | Houston Astros | Texas Aggies
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post #753 of 1014

Oh wow....yeah :(:{:lol

post #754 of 1014
Thread Starter 
Real plus-minus for this season is out:

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

1. Steph
2. Klay
3. Boogie
4. Brow
5. Duncan
6. Harden
7. Tyson Chandler
8. CP3
9. Lillard
10. Lowry
post #755 of 1014
Kawhi tonight: 18-8-4-6-5. eek.gif
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post #756 of 1014
Saw something on Twitter, gist of it being.....

When you realize that Kobe is 36, in his 19th NBA season, and is 6,000+ points behind Kareem, who spent FOUR years in college.

Good God. mean.gif
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post #757 of 1014
KAJ avg 20+ in 17 straight seasons, laugh.gif

25+ in his 1st 9 seasons and 4 of those were 30+.

Not even right, laugh.gif
I have a competition in me. I want no one else to succeed. I hate most people.

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post #758 of 1014
Quote:
Originally Posted by CP1708 View Post

Kawhi tonight: 18-8-4-6-5. eek.gif


Sad Boy Superstar.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hyper View Post

KAJ avg 20+ in 17 straight seasons, laugh.gif

25+ in his 1st 9 seasons and 4 of those were 30+.

Not even right, laugh.gif


His whole career is just mean.gif.


Dude legitimately might be the best HS, College, & NBA player ever.


Imagine if they counted blocks his whole career. mean.gif




My favorite Kareem is when he first came to LA with the Afro. pimp.gif




Also the fact he's been a stoner his whole life while being an elite athlete makes me like him even more.
post #759 of 1014
Yea, he'd most likely be the all time blocks leader if they counted his 1st 3 seasons, I think he was like 700 or something behind Hakeem.

He's still #3 on that list, so it's w/e.

But yea, he's in the discussion for GOAT, even tho I prefer Hakeem as far as C's go.
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post #760 of 1014
Hakeem is underrated, I don't feel like he's talked about enough in GOAT discussions.


Qaudrouole doubles and 5x5's were regular for him.


Look at the numbers from his best season, 26/13/3.5/1.8/4, just gaudy.
post #761 of 1014
Yea, he's a freak.

I wonder how differently people would view him had Houston accepted that trade from Portland in '84.

Would've sent Sampson to Portland in exchange for the #2 pick and Drexler, and I'm assuming Houston takes Jordan w/ that pick.

Not sure why they would've traded Ralph just to draft Bowie, especially considering they used #1 on Hakeem.

Hakeem/MJ/Drexler would've been silly.
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Reply
I have a competition in me. I want no one else to succeed. I hate most people.

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post #762 of 1014
Thread Starter 
Good read on the transformation of Mr. Inefficiency, Rudy Gay by BR's Howard Beck:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2297255-amid-turmoil-surrounding-kings-rudy-gay-emerging-as-crucial-agent-of-change
post #763 of 1014
Thread Starter 
Goldsberry:
Quote:
Korver’s Threat: How the Atlanta Sharpshooter Frightens NBA Defenses

The most potent jump shot in the NBA might belong to Atlanta’s Kyle Korver. The Hawks deadeye ranks first in the league in 3-point percentage and second in 3-point production, and through 24 games he’s shooting a ridiculous 54.6 percent from beyond the arc. In other words, any Hawks possession ending with an average Korver 3-point attempt is worth a ridiculous 1.64 points. Considering that the league as a whole scores 1.04 points per possession, it makes sense that Korver has become the centerpiece of a Hawks attack suddenly surging up the Eastern Conference standings.

Korver will never lead the league in scoring, but along with guys like Steph Curry and Danny Green, he’s among the NBA’s leaders in scaring; the mere risk of Korver getting off a clean shot terrifies opponents, and the defensive respect that terror commands opens the floor up for his teammates. As Zach Lowe pointed out in July, this effect is now measurable, and the numbers back up the notion that Korver receives more defensive attention than almost anybody else in the NBA. Looking at his shot chart from last season, it’s easy to understand why.

kyle-kover-shot-chart.jpg?w=694

The guy launches fireballs — everybody knows that — but until recently, the Korver threat had never been fully realized. This year, Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer has designed all kinds of tactics to ensure Korver gets his looks, and the knock-on effect has been clear. Overall, the Hawks are scoring 105.2 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 10th in the NBA. But during the 33 minutes Korver averages on the court, they put up 109.7 per 100, which would rank fourth in the league and second in the Eastern Conference.

I asked How U, YouTube’s greatest NBA compiler, to help demonstrate Korver’s importance to the Hawks offense.



As you can see, the simple wide screen doesn’t always get Korver a good look, but even when it doesn’t, the defense gets stressed early in the possession. Among players averaging at least 30 minutes, Korver has the fourth-best net rating in the Eastern Conference. Part of that is directly tied to his freakish ability to knock down 3s, sure. But he scores only 13 points per game, so it’s his mere presence that opens up the floor and keeps Atlanta’s offense humming.



The above play — the backside handoff — looks downright Spurs-ian, and it may as well be Manu Ginobili taking a handoff from Tim Duncan or Boris Diaw. That’s no coincidence of course, as Budenholzer served as an assistant in the Spurs organization from 1996 to 2013 before taking the Hawks gig last summer. He knows what smart basketball looks like, and he deserves a ton of credit for designing and implementing a new motion offense that evokes San Antonio’s movements and has quickly become one of the few watchable NBA things east of the Mississippi River.

Despite a 17-7 start, it’s too early to tell just how good the Hawks are. However, it’s clear how much the team has improved under Budenholzer — and since Al Horford returned to action. Atlanta is one of the few teams that effectively tailors its offense to emphasize its roster’s unique strengths, and all five starters are averaging double figures. With such a uniquely balanced attack in the cesspool that is the Eastern Conference, who knows? Korver might be scaring defenses all the way into June.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/kyle-korver-3-point-atlanta-hawks-mike-budenholzer/
post #764 of 1014

Strength in numbers...

 

Quantity over quality?

post #765 of 1014
Thread Starter 
Quote:
The r-squared Podcast: Episode 13 with Neil Paine

This episode of The r-squared Podcast features a conversation with Neil Paine, a staff writer at FiveThirtyEight. Neil takes us through his personal journey in sports analytics, some of his analytic and journalistic processes and his thoughts on various plus-minus metrics. We also touch on the Rajon Rondo trade, which was announced about an hour before we recorded, and some of Neil’s preseason projections for the Warriors and the Cavaliers. You can find Neil’s sportswriting and analysis at FiveThirtyEight and follow him on Twitter, @Neil_Paine.
http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/12/19/the-r-squared-podcast-episode-13-neil-paine/
post #766 of 1014
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Fascinating Aspect of the Rajon Rondo Trade

How will the Rajon Rondo trade affect Dallas’ offense? The short answer is we have very little real idea. On one hand his own scoring efficiency is laughably bad so far this season, with a true shooting percentage of 0.422. On the other side of the ledger, Rondo’s offensive value has never been in his scoring. With Boston’s contending teams, his usage rate was always below average. His role was far more to set up the Celtics more efficient scorers like the big three or to allow players completely dependant on being set up for good shots (such as Brandon Bass or even James Posey) to get those looks.

Now, in Dallas without the burden of being “the man” any longer, perhaps that is a role to which he’ll be returned. Yet it’s a role that, from an analytics standpoint, we know very little about.

Valuing playmaking is controversial, in part because there isn’t really an agreed upon description of the word. Certainly, the “assist” is an imperfect and at times even corrupt unit of measurement. That said, we do have some more insight on both the value of playmaking at the team level and a better way to describe individual playmaking through a few years of SportVU data.

On the team level, assisted shots are significantly more valuable than unassisted shots. Last season, the difference was about .3 points per shot, league-wide. How much of the credit for this goes to the passer compared to the shooter compared to the overall offensive system? Very much a good question.

Similarly, with the SportVU data we can look at individual players’ share of this playmaking. Part of my True Usage statistic is tracking what I’ve termed “Assist Usage,” or the proportion of plays where a guy makes a pass leading to a scoring attempt.

So what does this mean for Rondo to the Mavs? It will be a fascinating test — Dallas was roughly league average both in terms of proportion of assisted shot attempts and in their efficiency on those shots at the time of the trade. However, their overall efficiency was so high because of their ability to make unassisted shots, where their nearly 47% Effective Field Goal Percentage on those attempts1. So despite their whirring, fizzing machine of an offense, playmaking has been less important to their success than might be expected. Still, like every other team in the league, they shoot much better on assisted shots.

Which brings us to Rondo. So far this season, he’s the only player with an Assist Usage north of 30%2

Asstusgtop.jpg

Aside from J.J. Barea’s spot duty, no Mavericks have a particularly high rate. The departed Jameer Nelson was next at 17.3%, while Monta Ellis, often said to be Dallas’ point guard in all but name, is only setting up 14.4% of teammates shots3.

So, will Rondo increase Dallas’s overall “passiness” and will that be enough to offset the downgrade in floor spacing and shooting from Nelson to Rondo? This will be a fascinating experiment on that front. While there is some understanding of how players’ roles may change and shift in terms of traditional (shooting) usage when new talent is added or subtracted, very little at all is known about how dropping a player of Rondo’s playmaking skill into the mix will alter that aspect of the offense. Part of the difficulty in predicting the effect is while their is a hard and inviolable limit to a team’s total shooting usage (there is only one ball, and only one player can shoot each trip), the same does not hold for creating assist chances — there is a wide spread between the most (Atlanta at 61.3% of shots potentially assisted) and least (Toronto at 45.7%) prolific teams in terms of creating for others. How far, if at all, Rondo moves the Mavericks towards the upper end of that range will be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the season.
http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/12/19/fascinating-aspect-of-the-rajon-rondo-trade/
post #767 of 1014
Quote:

Unsung heroes, overrated scorers

RPM says Chandler, Green deserve more credit; Bryant, Parker not so much

Updated: December 19, 2014, 11:42 AM ET
By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider
 

 

The box score era is over.

 

With SportVU cameras hanging in the rafters tracking millions of data points per game and statisticians crunching spreadsheets full of lineup information, we can look outside the box score and finally move into the 21st century in NBA player evaluation. Exit points per game, enter real plus-minus.

 

To recap, real plus-minus (RPM) is ESPN's value metric, developed by stat gurus Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi, which estimates a player's on-court impact on team performance on both ends of the floor. RPM factors in teammate and opponent quality among other factors, making it more nuanced than your typical all-in-one metric that strictly looks at box score contributions. With the first batch of real plus-minus coming out earlier this month, let's take a look at players who are overrated by conventional statistics found in the box score and give proper due to those who do the little things in the box score's blind spot.

 

Underrated role players

 

 

 

984.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

 

Tyson Chandler, C, Dallas Mavericks


ORPM: +2.4 |DRPM: +3.6 | RPM: +6.0 | WAR: 3.8 wins

 

How does a guy who barely takes six shots per game end up as one of the league's most impactful players? By owning the most sacred land in the game: the paint. He's shooting a baffling 67.9 percent from the floor, which creates spacing for his teammates via his ominous pick-and-roll dives to the rim. For fear of the towering alley-oop, defenses reflexively collapse to the paint after his hard screens, which affords shooters with just enough to daylight to rain from downtown.

 

Chandler's job defensively is to put out fires. The 32-year-old has had the tough task of keeping the Mavericks afloat while starting next to four "minus" defenders. Rajon Rondo's arrival could help if the point guard puts in better effort than he has in Boston. Though his block rate isn't elite, he's incredibly skilled at defending without fouling (his 2.7 fouls per 36 minutes is a career-low) and finishing defensive possessions by cleaning the glass. Dallas wouldn't sniff their current 57-win pace without him.

 

 

 

6589.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

Draymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors


ORPM: +0.5 |DRPM: +3.8 | RPM: +4.3 | WAR: 3.3 wins

 

Plus-minus metrics like RPM were built for guys like Green. His box score numbers are fairly pedestrian for a power forward. He's averaging 13 points and eight rebounds with 44.9 percent shooting from the floor. Meh. However, he crushes everything in between. He's an elite passer (especially on outlets), an improved 3-point shooter and a Swiss-Army knife defensively; he can switch on just about any position on the floor.

 

Coaches kill for guys like him. Evidence of Green doing all the little things: he has registered a plus-minus in the negative in just three of his 24 games this season. In other words, the Warriors excel almost every time he steps on the floor. Green will be a free agent this offseason and RPM says he should be paid an annual eight figures.

 

 

 

2769.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

Amir Johnson, PF, Toronto Raptors


ORPM: +0.5 |DRPM: +3.8 | RPM: +4.3 | WAR: 3.3 wins

 

The perennial plus-minus darling just won't quit. For the eighth straight season in a row, Johnson's teams have been better with him on the floor than when he's on the bench. With a high waist and long frame, the 27-year-old sets some of the meanest screens in the NBA and thrives in rim runs a la Tyson Chandler. According to Synergy tracking, Johnson has the fourth-best efficiency in the pick-and-roll plays in the NBA (minimum 50 plays), earning 1.34 points every time he tries to score in that action.

 

He's an elite finisher around the rim (70.5 percent inside three feet) and attacks the offensive boards to extend possessions for the Raps. He makes sound decisions on the defensive end and has the length and athleticism to bother both 4s and 5s in the paint. He hasn't registered a double-double since opening night, but he consistently gives the Raptors great minutes.

 

 

 

2367.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

Tony Allen, G, Memphis Grizzlies


ORPM: -1.1 |DRPM: +2.4 | RPM: +1.3 | WAR: 1.2 wins

 

He can't shoot. He can't pass. He can't dribble. But the Grindfather helps you win games. He's a defensive specialist who ranks second in steal rate while also locking down the opposing team's best perimeter player. That's not easy to do, especially at 33 years old. But TA works magic.

 

Though it might seem like Memphis is playing 4-on-5 on offense at times, Allen's ubiquitous presence defensively makes it seem like 5-on-8 the other way. Coach Dave Joerger deserves credit for minimizing Allen's liabilities. Amazingly, the Grizzlies are scoring 108.6 points per 100 possessions with Allen on the floor, which is better than Cleveland's offensive efficiency. Allen's teams have been better with him on the floor for five consecutive seasons and this season is no different.

 

 

 

2530596.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

Andre Roberson, G, Oklahoma City Thunder


ORPM: -1.1 |DRPM: +3.1 | RPM: +2.0 | WAR: 1.0 wins

 

You look at his 9.7 PER and you wonder how he has a starting gig next to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. But then you peel back the layers. Did you know that opponents are shooting just 31.7 percent with Roberson as the defender? According to NBAsavant.com, that's the lowest defender field goal percentage in the NBA (minimum 100 shots). The guy is an absolute pest.

 

And then there's this: the Oklahoma City Thunder allow just 90.5 points per 100 possessions with Roberson on the floor -- the second-stingiest on-court rating for any regular not named Dwight Howard. He can't shoot worth a lick (he's missed 18-of-19 on 3-point attempts this season), but he makes up for it with his defensive tenacity and gritty rebounding. Thanks to his power forward upbringing, he's one of the best at cleaning the glass at his size (7.7 boards per 36 minutes). The guy hasn't scored more than five points in any of his last 13 appearances, but he's a plus-105 over that time. Playing next to Durant and Westbrook has helped, but he's the selfless glue guy they need.

 


 

 

Overrated scorers

 

 

 

110.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

Kobe Bryant, G, Los Angeles Lakers


ORPM: -0.2 |DRPM: -2.9 |RPM: -3.1 | WAR: -0.3 wins

 

Yes, offensive RPM says that Bryant is hurting the Lakers' offense even though he's averaging more than 25 points per game. As I pointed out in the BIG Number, Bryant alone has taken more contested midrange jumpers than 12 NBA teams, according to NBAsavant.com. And he's been below-average in making them. That predictable inefficiency has dragged the Lakers' offensive output down to just 101.9 points per 100 possessions.

 

It's about as hollow 25.2 points per game as it gets. At this stage of his career, he's done being a plus defender. With all of his energy and attention devoted to the offensive end, he ranks dead last in defensive RPM. He dies on off-ball screens and routinely gambles for steals, which leaves his teammates out to dry. But hey, as long as he's playing, we'll keep watching.

 

 

 

1015.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

Tony Parker, G, San Antonio Spurs


ORPM: -0.5 |DRPM: -2.4 | RPM: -2.9 | WAR: -0.2 wins

 

Didn't expect to see this, huh? For my money, this is the most surprising RPM figure of all. Parker, one of the worst point guards in the league? His box score stats seem normal. He's averaging a solid 16 points and 5.3 while shooting 50.9 percent from the floor and a ludicrous 65.4 percent from deep. But then you see his turnover rate has ballooned to 16.6 percent, his highest since his rookie season, and his rebound rate has fallen to career-low depths.

 

And the scoreboard hasn't been kind to Parker. The Spurs have been 2.5 points per 100 possessions more efficient offensively with Parker riding the bench and 3.1 points stingier per 100 possessions on the defensive end. It's certainly possible that Parker has lost a step at age 32, but he's also been dealing with a bum hamstring and a cracked rib. Given his track record, Parker's RPM standing doesn't seem permanent.

 

 

 

6628.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

Dion Waiters, G, Cleveland Cavaliers


ORPM: -1.9 |DRPM: -1.8 |RPM: -3.6 | WAR: -0.4 wins

 

Waiters has seen better days. After being the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, Waiters has struggled to find a winning role at the NBA level. Instead of thriving next to his new star counterparts, Waiters has watched his efficiency bottom out all the way down to a 46.9 percent true-shooting percentage in his third season. Only Michael Carter-Williams and Josh Smith have been less efficient with a usage rate north of 22 percent.

 

One would think that Waiters would thrive against second units, but he's having more trouble than ever getting to the rim. His free-throw rate has been sliced in half and his defensive apathy makes him unplayable in crunch time. Though he averages 15.4 points every 36 minutes, he routinely registers empty minutes. He's seen a positive plus-minus in just five of his 23 appearances which is hard to do with all that talent around him.

 

 

 

2444.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

J.R. Smith, G, New York Knicks


ORPM: 0.0 |DRPM: -2.9 | RPM: -2.9 | WAR: -0.2 wins

 

No surprise here. Smith has long been overrated by his point totals. RPM thought Smith broke even last season thanks to his 3-point shooting abilities, but he's having a dreadful season in that department. If Smith can't terrorize opponents from deep, the cupboard is bare. And he's shooting just 32.4 percent from beyond the arc this season and his scoring rate has sunk to a career-low 14.8 points per 36 minutes.

 

His defense has been a train wreck. Among shooting guards, only Kobe Bryant has been more problematic on the defensive end. That's at least excusable for Bryant who is 36 years old coming off two major leg injuries, but Smith hasn't even hit 30 years old yet. Considering how useless he's been this season, it might be best for team morale that he takes his time sitting out with his foot issues.

 

 

 

3209.png&w=65&h=90&scale=crop&background=0xcccccc&transparent=false

 

Jeff Green, F, Boston Celtics


ORPM: 0.0 |DRPM: -1.9 | RPM: -1.9 | WAR: 0.2 wins

 

Boston is all yours now. As Rondo takes his talents to Dallas, Green will have to prove that his career year in the scoring column isn't just a Rondo-induced mirage. He's averaging a career-high 19.6 points per game while shooting a career-high 56.5 true-shooting percentage. But his lukewarm offensive RPM suggests his value is narrow in scope.

 

He's not a floor-spacer (32.2 percent shooting from deep) and he almost never makes plays for others. Green's paltry assist rate trails those of Howard, Kenneth Faried and Amar'e Stoudemire. Though it's not a requirement to be a playmaker next to a Rondo-led team, Green has never shown the ability to consistently make others around him better. His defense has long been overrated as RPM shows and it's startling to see that the Celtics have been 14 points per 100 possessions better with Green on the bench. Will he last long enough in Boston to make it right?

 

 

 

 

post #768 of 1014
what does ADJP48 mean?

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/nyk?season=2014

JR Smith is listed as a .05 but I don't know what this metric is defining.
post #769 of 1014
Thread Starter 
post #770 of 1014
Thread Starter 
Wow (Steph Curry related).
post #771 of 1014
Thread Starter 


Guess who just got beta access to this website?

pimp.gif
post #772 of 1014
That **** is amazing. You just have to email them for it, or pay for it, or how you get it?
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post #773 of 1014
Thread Starter 
NBA Twitter posted links and I signed up for free beta access months ago. They finally sent me a code to create my account earlier tonight.

PM'd. pimp.gif
post #774 of 1014
I'm repping you in the morning. Thank you man. This stuff is crazy. I don't even know what to do with all of it. laugh.gif
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post #775 of 1014
Thread Starter 
Not advanced stats per say, but certainly advanced:

Want to avoid injury? NBA teams are looking to Marcus Elliott for answers

http://www.si.com/nba/2014/12/23/marcus-elliott-p3-nba-injury-injury-analysis-data
post #776 of 1014
Thread Starter 
Quote:
We don't actually know if Kobe Bryant is hurting the Lakers

Against all odds, Kobe Bryant is the single most interesting thing in the NBA this season. Not the return of the King, not the rise of fresh young powers, not even the Hawks can top Kobe in gawk-worthy expression.

And Kobe's mere existence has been raising voices all over the country in recent weeks. The culmination of that was ... well, that whole Christmas in Temecula thing. But there was also Byron Scott calling those who doubt Kobe's value "idiots." And along those lines, we have Michael Wilbon's piece on Kobe's fight against Father Time, a piece that included Wilbon calling analytic-minded folks who suggest Kobe is bringing down the Lakers "clowns."

The name-calling is over-the-top and is more becoming of the Mamba Army than an NBA head coach and a respected basketball writer, but the question stands. Are the Lakers better off without Kobe?

First, the case against Kobe: he is the least efficient high-scorer in the league. That matters.

The Lakers have an average offense, which is a minor miracle. Kobe is No. 5 in the NBA in points per game, but he takes a ridiculous number of shots to get there. Consider how much less efficient he is compared to his contemporaries.

Scorers-vs-Efficiency-v2.0.png

Kobe is the least efficient player among the league's top 50 scorers. Only three players in the league's top 100 scorers are less efficient: Michael Carter-Williams (who went 2-20 over the weekend), Josh Smith (who got waived with tens of millions left on his deal last week) and, barely, Andrew Wiggins, a 19-year-old rookie.

Why does efficiency matter? Because teams don't get unlimited numbers of shots or possessions. The only way to win the game is to get more points out of your team's possessions than your opponent gets out of their possessions. They will have roughly the same number of possessions as you (give or take a couple due to end-of-quarter situations). If you end up with a lot of scoreless possessions, you either need to play good defense or you're going to lose. The Lakers have the No. 30 defense in the NBA, so winning that way's not happening.

But here's the thing: despite Kobe's undeniable inefficiency, he doesn't seem to be hurting the Lakers' offense in the aggregate.

As mentioned, the Lakers are average -- No. 15 as of Monday, to be exact -- in offensive efficiency. They are top-3 in turnover rate and in the top half of the league in free throw rate and offensive rebounding. The one offensive category in which the Lakers trail is, yes, shooting. And Kobe does take the bulk of shots. But when you look at the data, it's not obvious that all of those shots are hurting the offensive performance much.

Consider the fact that in games in which Kobe takes shots at a much lower frequency, the Lakers' offense isn't appreciably better.

Kobe-vs-Lakers.0.png

The median for Kobe's shots per minute this season is 0.7. (As always, we're factoring in free throw trips.) In fact, when Kobe shoots more 0.7 shots per minute in a game, the Lakers' offense is slightly better than when he shoots less than 0.7 shots per minute.

There's more data to this effect. It's true that in the aggregate the Lakers have performed better offensively when Kobe is not on the floor, by about five points per 100 possessions. But raw on-off data is extremely noisy, as it doesn't at all account for the other nine players on the court or those replacing the players in question. That's why analytic types much prefer adjusted plus-minus. The best current public iteration for that is ESPN's Real Plus-Minus. In that measure, Kobe rates at +1.47 on offense.

In other words, once you account for the fact that Kobe is playing with lackluster teammates against primarily starters and that Kobe's replacements (including Nick Young) are playing more frequently against reserves, Bryant's on-court numbers don't look so bad. Or, more accurately, the Lakers' numbers when Kobe is on the floor don't look so bad. Kobe's numbers still look bad.

Young's individual numbers (especially shooting percentage) look much better than those of Kobe. But his real plus-minus offensive figure is +0.07. When you adjust for everything raw plus-minus doesn't account for, Kobe's impact doesn't look so bad.

How can Kobe be a credit to the Lakers' offense when he's the least efficient high-scorer in the entire league? Because shooting efficiency is just one part of the equation. I noted above that the Lakers rate highly in turnover rate. Kobe has a remarkably low turnover rate for someone who uses so many possessions. I noted that the Lakers get to the line a lot. Kobe is No. 2 on the team in free throw rate. There's also the matter of Kobe's passing, which is actually really good when he does it: he's No. 2 on the team in assist rate and is averaging almost five dimes per game. Kobe's poor shooting matters. But so does all of that.

The problem with the Lakers isn't offense. The problem with the Lakers is defense. Yes, Kobe is horrid on that end, but so is every other Laker not named Ed Davis at this point. The defense has been better when Young and Wayne Ellington play and in garbage time. Other than that, it's been a nightmare with and without Kobe. This should end up as Byron Scott's fourth consecutive bottom-5 defense.

(In fairness to the coach, he doesn't have defenders on his roster. In fairness to the roster -- and by extension GM Mitch Kupchak -- there's little evidence Scott would be able to squeeze a decent number out of it if he did have the players.)

Kobe is a part of the problem defensively, but if he weren't around, the Lakers would still be giving up way too many points. Despite Kobe's horrific shooting numbers, the data suggests the Lakers are better off on offense when he's on the court.

And that's the key here: the data suggests. We're certain about exactly nothing when it comes to the NBA, except perhaps that Zach Randolph is not to be toyed with and that Chris Bosh has a winning smile. Everything else is a mystery we can only bat around.

So there we are with Kobe Bean Bryant, who may or may not be hurting the Lakers by his very existence. The answer isn't obvious either way, so perhaps fewer visits to Temecula and more nuance during the debate is warranted.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/12/29/7456595/kobe-bryant-lakers-stats-shooting-hurting-mystery
post #777 of 1014

LOL at the Korver one.

 

 

Its crazy how seriously people are taking the Lakers season. Its like people looked at this roster and expected something different.

San Antonio Spurs: MCMXCIX, MMIII, MMV, MMVII, MMXIV


I Never Cried When _____ Died, But I Definitely Will When Hov Does

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San Antonio Spurs: MCMXCIX, MMIII, MMV, MMVII, MMXIV


I Never Cried When _____ Died, But I Definitely Will When Hov Does

Reply
post #778 of 1014
Brow 8/12

Reke 5/18
Jrue 5/18
Anderson 7/18
Rivers 2/7


FIRE. EVVVVVVVVERYBODY.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
LA LAKERS
CHICAGO CUBS
MIAMI HURRICANES
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MIAMI DOLPHINS
LA LAKERS
CHICAGO CUBS
MIAMI HURRICANES
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post #779 of 1014

Was watching the OT of the Pelicans/Spurs game and the Pelicans didn't seem to run the offense through AD at all.

 

Saw Tyreke Iso'ing and Jimmer launching 3s but no plays for AD.

 

Is that the norm?

post #780 of 1014
That happens all the time. It's frustrating to watch.
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