NFL Quarterbacks Discussion thread: 2013 Edition

[CP1708]

I've been getting ready to bump this for a day or two now, but was struggling with how to approach it.

I have Luck pegged as Peyton 2.0

But I heard something over the weekend that struck me, and I don't know how I feel about it.

Luck isn't the "gunslinger" that Peyton is, he's not wired that way. Luck will beat you, that's all. Run it, throw it, hand it off, hell, catch it if you've seen his college highlights. Exploit your weakness, rather than just whip it around the yard.

So, the comparison I heard brought up was, Troy Aikman.


And I like it.


Troy had all the tools to throw it around, even had the weapons, but didn't go that way. He just managed the team, little effort as possible, run, play D, throw it when needed, 28-13, W. Come back the next week, do it again.

Never worried about 4,000 yards, or 30 TD's, just stacked W's til his brain got scrambled.

Luck will get 4,000 and 30 today because my sister could throw for 4,000 and 30 today, but in terms of HOW he does it, he might just run the Indy org like Aikman did in Dallas.

And I don't mean that just because of Richardson's run game, I mean in general, just like at Stanford with no receivers but three elite tight ends, just give him a team of functional players, he'll get the ball where it needs to be. He don't need or want to sling it 50+ times, whereas Peyton has made a career out of 600+ attempts in a season even with Edge behind him most of his career.


I don't know if it's right, but it seems.....fitting? Iono.

 

[100027]

Its true that Luck hasn't had the eye popping one-nighters that his peers have had.

 

[651akathepaul]

I can see that, actually. He just wins and will beat you whichever way teams allow him to.

 

[dmxfury]

I like that

 

[CP1708]

I can't remember where I heard the thought process, but I assume this weekend had something to do with it.

164 yards and 0 TD's, yet they dominate on the road against a great team. That's sort of Aikmanish, ya know?

Runs the game plan, gets it done. Even tho we all know he can throw the ball all over, why play to the other team's strength (pass rush) when you can attack a better way?

Next week maybe he does have 300 yards and 4 TD's, just depends on his matchup.

I dunno, I didn't like it at first, but it stuck in my head all week and I been chewin on it, was gonna bump this with it but you beat me to it 651.

 

[CP1708]

I can see that, actually. He just wins and will beat you whichever way teams allow him to.

Wouldn't that make him similar to Tom Brady though or does it to deeper than that?

We've seen Tom run an array of offenses since he got into the league?

Or is that not the same analogy ?

Naw, cuz Tom did eventually morph into today's throw it all over the place guy.

Aikman never did. He played his rookie year the same as his last year. Brady improved and evolved.

I guess that would make Brady a more versatile system QB because he's done the defense/run game, the aerial attack, and then the 2 TE/slot attack, now he's back to a more pro style set, 1 RB, 1 TE, couple receivers, etc.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Luck is a beast.

 

[DeadsetAce]

yeah luck is going to be the guy we're thankful for when 12 and 18 retire

 

[air spider 777]

The Troy Aikman comparison I can see this year where he will beat you with his arm if he needs to. Last year, no. Its really about the system he's in. Pep Hamilton, passes when needed and runs first. I'm not a fan of it. I particularly like Arians' style.

But hey whatever get the W!

 

[DeadsetAce]

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Yo, DSA...

Moving this discussion here for a minute:

 

 

 

Aaron Rodgers is 5-17 in games decided by 4 points or less? Yikes.

fraij? i know you've got a stat or something in response to this

There's a lot of games mainly from 08-10 that Rodgers took the lead late in the game and the Defense then in turn gave up the lead in the last minute or lost in OT... I'll try to find the breakdown... A heavy amount of those L's are from 2008-2009 with a couple more in 2010 specifically in the middle of the season when Rodgers was concussed vs Washington on the final drive (or OT? cant remember) and they lost by 3, then the next week lost in OT to the Dolphins.

Rodgers played like **** on Sunday and still had the team burning clock down to 2-3 minutes when McCarthy decided to go for it on 4th down and Franklin fumbled and Cinci took it back.

Packers are a front-running team though.  Yesterday is not an example however the offense was never really in tune at any point.  Cant imagine any QB would be pleased being down 0-14 before even calling a play.

yeah i mean i dont think it's saying that rodgers isn't great or anything. just an interesting stat. i know the pats have a similar record in tight games for similar reasons. that's usually how front running teams lose.

Do you know Brady's record in those "close" games?  I read that Brady only has like 39 losses career or something the other day? I'd be willing to bet that a lot of those were "by less than 4"... When you hold it against his W/L record of what, 139 and 39... Is it really even considered a bad thing that hes got a "crappy" W/L record in those games?

What it tells me is that those 2 guys keep their team in almost every single game they play.  Brady and Rodgers have both had awful defenses at one point or another, sometimes more often than not. 

Rodgers overall W/L is 53-28, 10 losses coming in 2008 which was his first year at QB... 47-18 since 2009.

 2008

Vs Minnesota 24-19 Win
Leading 17-6 entering 4th. Leads to TD with 6:03 remaining for 24-12 lead. D allows TD with 2:39 remaining. GB goes 3 runs and out, Bigby INT seals win.

@ Ten loss 19-16 in OT.
Game tied at 16, GB ball with 4:24 left in 4th. Moved to Tennessee 43 drive stalled, punt. Never had ball in OT

@ Min, loss 28-27.
Trailing by 1 with 2:22 left in 4th, drive starts at GB 41, moves to Min 34. Crosby misses 52 yard FG with 26 seconds remaining.

Vs Carolina, loss 35-31
Leads 4th quarter TD drive to lead 31-28. Carolina gets ball with 1:57 and needs 27 seconds to go 55 yards for go ahead TD.
With 1:30 left, from GB 17, on second and 10, INT.

Vs Houston, loss 24-21
Leads GB to tying TD with 5:56 in 4th. Houston 3 and out. GB starts at own 16 with 4:37 left. First play 59 yard pass to Driver to Houston 25. Grant +3 yard run, next play holding, 2nd and 17, sack for – 9 to Houston 41. 3rd and 26, gets 3 yard pass to Houston 38 results in punt to Houston 3. Houston goes from own 3 to GB 22 in 1:49 for game ending FG.

@ Jax, loss 20-16
Leads GB to FG with 5:35 left for 16-13 lead. Jax goes 64 yards in 3:39 for TD, 2 point fails. GB with 1:56 at own 16. Incomplete, incomplete, +12 to Driver, +12 to Jones. + 8 to Driver. 0:46 left, 2nd and 2, pass deep middle INT.

@ Chi, loss 20-17 in OT
Early 4th FG gives GB 17-10 lead. INT by Nick Collins gives GB ball with 9:36 left. 1 first down then punt. Chicago goes 51 yards in 4:03 to for TD to tie game.
GB ball at Chicago 35 with 3:11 to go. Settle for 38 yard FG that is blocked by Alex Brown. Chicago wins in OT.

So, with Rodgers were talking about 17 out of 28 total losses by 4 points or less... I believe 25 of the losses are by 7 points or less.

When you hold those against the W/L of Brady and Rodgers can you really say they're just bad in close games? as good as they are would you really expect them to be 60-22 or for Tom (not knowing how many "close" L's he has) being 145-33?

Neither Brady or Rodgers are barely ever on the wrong side of a blowout.

 
adjusted percentage that hypothetically assumes all quarterbacks were failed by the defense equally, as well as the percentage of games won by the quarterback’s team after leading a potential game winning fourth quarter drive.

 
How has Rodgers played late in close games? Here is a summary (from the pro-football-reference play finder) of the numbers for each of the eleven quarterbacks in the article, since 2008 (when Rodgers became the starter), in the final five minutes of a game when trailing by 8 or less, or tied.

The argument that the "losses by 4 or less" record is convenient but shouldn't be quite as negatively used as it is.

/CP

 

[DeadsetAce]

Fraij no doubt. good post.

brady's record in those tight games has to be very similar. i remember seeing stats from one or two years ago, although the focus was always on that particular year, not a career. but same thing. crap record in close games. when these guys lose, that's how they're losing. that's really all i take when i look at that stat.

and look at the type of teams that beat a brady or rodgers. ball control, punch you in the mouth teams. they're not typically teams that are just going win a track meet versus those QBs. exceptions are there, of course. but in general, not how it works.

 

[CP1708]

/CP?

What I do?

 

[fraij da 5 11]

/CP?

What I do?

That's how im going to sign off any tl;dr posts in QB thread from now on.

 

[CP1708]

Why?

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Man, nevermind.

 

[jpzx]

Have shots been fired in the Week 3 in Review thread? I've been waiting to go through it, just haven't found the time. The pages and preview replies I'll randomly see leads me believe someone set some fireworks off.

 

[DeadsetAce]

^ there was some shooting going on, yes

friendly fire, actually

 

[CP1708]

Just looks like the same ol Jets fans backin up more average QB play to me. They make it sound like Sanchez to Geno is Painter to Luck when really it's just Sanchez to a little better Sanchez.

But let them live, they need this.

 

[651akathepaul]

Bradford and Weeden were my QB's on the rise this year.


Have at it, friends.

 

[CP1708]

Funny thing is, it's not ALL on Bradford. Run game is dead, they can't even figure out how to use Austin yet, Jake Long died 2 years ago, Brian Schotty sucks a bag of gym socks, they are just a mess.

They go QB/RB in round 1 next May, I feel pretty good about that. But other changes need to happen as well.


QB/RB/OT thru 2 rounds would be a solid, solid start. They have the skill guys ready already, Givens, Austin, Cook, Bailey is more than enough of a start, add those 3 pieces in the first 38 or so picks, hit the ground runnin.

 

[651akathepaul]

It's really not, but at this point it's hard to just change your confidence level if you've already checked out. He's just going through the motions right now and shows no fire or real interest in playing. Oh well. He could be one of the best suited to find success in another uniform. Still has to be said though that it's early so I guess you never know if he can turn it around or not.

 

[Chester McFloppy]

He's just going through the motions right now and shows no fire or real interest in playing.

He doesn't wanna be there at all.

 

[651akathepaul]

We'll just make Minnesota the misfit island of quarterbacks. Bring in Freeman and Bradford to compete with Cassel for the job.

 

[User 37837]

Josh Freeman is horrible