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I like the trade. #7 seed
Official 2013 NBA Offseason Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by durantula,
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Don't worry.
Rudy's ascension to stardom begins in only a few months.
Rudy Gay will never be a star
shoeking2101
Banned
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- Rudy Gay will be 20 a game on 45% shooting this year. Yeah he was playing against tanking/bad teams towards the end of the year, but the way he as an individual player was encouraging. Fully expect him to have a very good year, and statistically at least will be better than Paul George. Still a fan of his and a believer in his ability.
- I like and dislike what Detroit is doing at the same time
on one hand, they have been so bad the past few years, it's good that they are putting a team on the floor that will qualify for a playoff spot...albeit a short exit in all likelihood. On the other hand, your throwing all your chips in to being a 6/8 playoff team, which is going to equate in a short exit, ridding them of those lotto pics in the process.
- I don't know on Brandon Jennings man. He has talent, however I'm not sure how good of a scorer he truly is. In order for him to score, he has to jack up a lot of shots to do so. As a 6'1 PG with little weight, most of those shots are low quality which equates to that horrific percentage. He was afforded the opportunity to take as many step back 3's as he wanted on that milwaukee team, he won't be afforded that kind of green light with this team. I'm thinking 13 and 6 for him, which isn't bad, but isn't the "talented/good scorer" that some were saying he was over the past few pages.
- Milwaukee :x O.J. |I ....hopefully he can find a way to keep up what he does in the first two months of a season over an entire season though.
- I like and dislike what Detroit is doing at the same time
on one hand, they have been so bad the past few years, it's good that they are putting a team on the floor that will qualify for a playoff spot...albeit a short exit in all likelihood. On the other hand, your throwing all your chips in to being a 6/8 playoff team, which is going to equate in a short exit, ridding them of those lotto pics in the process. - I don't know on Brandon Jennings man. He has talent, however I'm not sure how good of a scorer he truly is. In order for him to score, he has to jack up a lot of shots to do so. As a 6'1 PG with little weight, most of those shots are low quality which equates to that horrific percentage. He was afforded the opportunity to take as many step back 3's as he wanted on that milwaukee team, he won't be afforded that kind of green light with this team. I'm thinking 13 and 6 for him, which isn't bad, but isn't the "talented/good scorer" that some were saying he was over the past few pages.
- Milwaukee :x O.J. |I ....hopefully he can find a way to keep up what he does in the first two months of a season over an entire season though.
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BJ actually got a cheap contract relative to his peers.
Monta 3/30
Calderon 7.5 million a year.
Monta 3/30
Calderon 7.5 million a year.
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Everything is in OJs favor......starting SG, garbage team, #2 option
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Juice might be the #1 option by default.
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lol Pistons
....Dumars don't give a ****
Knight and Mayo
...if they had kept Tobias Harris the team would be a lot more promising.....smh at renting JJ Reddick for nothing.
Knight
Mayo
Harris
Henson
Sanders
Knight and Mayo
Knight
Mayo
Harris
Henson
Sanders
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how does monta only get paid 10 mill a year?
he have it all
he have it all
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OJ is gonna shoot 20 shots a game this year on that Bucks squad.
shoeking2101
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Juice might be the #1 option by default.
#emptypoints
#20ppg?
#20ppgon30WinTeam
#YoloMayo
#Donteemcare
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Competition for 6-8 seeds in the East will be fun to watch
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at people still predicting solid numbers for him. My God.
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ESPN PROJECTION TOP 10 PG 2013-2014 Season
1. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 15.9
This might be the Year of Chris Paul, if the Miami Heat falter a bit in the regular season or MVP voters grow tired of rubber-stamping LeBron James' name at the top of their ballots. With the Clippers poised to build upon last year's breakout season and challenge for the top seed in the West, it could come down to a Paul versus Kevin Durant battle for the coveted Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Paul has finished in the top five of the voting four times and as high as second. Although ATH sees a near replica of Paul's 2012-13 WARP, it's still a figure that will garner lots of MVP chatter.
And why wouldn't ATH see Paul churning out the same season? At 29, he's squarely in his prime and his individual winning percentages the past two seasons (.740 and .739) nicely illustrate just how consistent he is. Paul doesn't use as many possessions as he did in his top seasons in New Orleans, but every other facet of his game has remained intact. Last season, Paul shot a career-low 32.8 percent from 3-point range, although he offset that by doing more damage inside the arc. He has shot as high as 40.9 percent from deep in his career, and, if he has a fluky good-shooting campaign, it could put him over a .600 true shooting percentage for the first time in his career. In fact, ATH sees a regression in the 3-point rate, bringing Paul up to a .600 TS% on the nose. With so many weapons around him -- Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, Jared Dudley, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Reggie Bullock -- it will be up to Paul to orchestrate the most high-powered offensive attack he's been a part of to date.
2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7
By the time the MVP voting results were released during the playoffs, Westbrook had been knocked out by a knee injury, and, unfortunately, that's probably what we will remember most from his 2012-13 season. Overlooked at the time was the fact that Westbrook finished ninth in the voting despite ranking third in WARP. Although Westbrook's value to the Thunder was apparently overlooked when the ballots were completed, it was abundantly clear when he was absent in the postseason. ATH isn't forecasting a decline for Westbrook this season as much as a regression, and the distinction is important. Regression, in a statistical context, simply means moving toward average. It can be a positive or negative effect, yet many people take the term as a pejorative.
Westbrook took a huge leap last season, and, like Derrick Rose in 2011-12, he's likely to come back to earth just a little bit. ATH sees Westbrook maintaining his roughly 33 percent usage rate of the past two seasons. Given some possible shortages on the Oklahoma City bench, it could climb even higher depending on how many of his minutes come with Kevin Durant off the floor. If so, Westbrook's tepid efficiency could slide into the danger area.
3. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.4
On a per-possession basis, ATH sees Irving bypassing Westbrook as the second-best point guard in the NBA. In general, NBA players experience the most growth in their early 20s, and Irving will be barely 22 by the time the 2013-14 postseason rolls around. His revamped Cavaliers might well be a part of the proceedings. ATH sees a growth in Irving's efficiency inside and outside the arc, resulting in a soaring true shooting percentage of .574. That's all while using the same portion of Cleveland's offense as the other young Cavaliers grow around him. The three-win leap in WARP is doable, but it certainly would help if Irving can make it through a season healthy. After two seasons, his career high in games played is just 59.
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 10.7
Curry jumped from 4.7 WARP to 15.8 last season, but of course his health was the driving force in that quantum leap. Curry's winning percentage the past two seasons has been virtually identical: .665 and .669. He'll turn 26 this year, so chances are he has established his level of play, giving him a lower ceiling than someone like Irving. However, that level of play is still really impressive. You can set your watch by Curry's 3-point shooting, but last year he actually shot worse inside the arc than outside it. ATH sees a regression in the right direction in that regard, but a concurrent one in the wrong direction in Curry's turnover rate. If Curry can continue his improvement in ball protection, his bottom-line value will rival that of the non-Paul class of point guards.
5. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 9.9
With the change in talent around him, Williams will be one of the most intriguing players to watch in the coming season. In his best years in Utah, Williams was an assist machine, but, as a Net, he initially took on a heavy scoring load and his efficiency dropped off the map. Last season, with Brooklyn's roster improved, Williams' usage rate returned to previous levels, and his shooting percentages recovered accordingly. However, his assist rate was his lowest since his rookie season. Williams' turnovers also were down, so he simply had the ball less. With so much talent and so many alpha personalities on the new Nets, Williams can either be more of a cog in the machine or he can become its operator. Given the on-court proclivities of his new coach, Jason Kidd, I'm going to guess it's going to be the latter. If Williams can return to his days of double-digit assists, it will be a sign the new mix in Brooklyn is working.
6. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.5
ATH sees Conley's 2012-13 season as a career campaign, but he's not likely to regress much. The biggest uptick in his game last year was shot selection, with a 5 percent increase in the portion of his possessions that ended with a 3-point attempt. That kind of wisdom, once gained, is not easily lost.
7. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3
Forecasting games played always is tough, and the formula for doing so leaves Rose with just 61 games in his projection. That's what happens when a guy misses 109 regular-season games over two seasons. His winning percentage is tabbed at .607, down from the .679 he put up in his MVP season of 2010-11. ATH, like the rest of us, believes Rose has plenty to prove in the coming season.
8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the past three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.
9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lawson is a classic example of the usage/efficiency nexus. His usage rate has increased in every season of his career, and his true shooting percentage has declined. Just as important, though, his assist rate has steadily climbed even as his turnover rate has dropped. This season, ATH sees all those various elements coming together as Lawson steps into his prime.
10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
There is a school of thought that Lillard entered the NBA fully formed and that, as outstanding as he was in his rookie of the year campaign, Lillard is as good now as he's ever going to be. This is the season we begin to find out whether that's true. ATH projects that Lillard will take a significant step forward, with progress in shot selection and especially on the defensive end.
The next five: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio.
It's a point guard league right now, so there are some big names that slip outside the top 10. Rubio, who ranks 15th at 6.5 WARP, would rate as the No. 6 shooting guard, for example. So these are actually solid ratings for the up-and-coming Walker and Wall, even though they are both dinged for a combination of high usage rates and low shooting percentages.
Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the past two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.
Edit: Rondo would have been #10 if he was going to play a full season
Not sure how Conley would be better than rose ESPN stay trolling....
1. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 15.9
This might be the Year of Chris Paul, if the Miami Heat falter a bit in the regular season or MVP voters grow tired of rubber-stamping LeBron James' name at the top of their ballots. With the Clippers poised to build upon last year's breakout season and challenge for the top seed in the West, it could come down to a Paul versus Kevin Durant battle for the coveted Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Paul has finished in the top five of the voting four times and as high as second. Although ATH sees a near replica of Paul's 2012-13 WARP, it's still a figure that will garner lots of MVP chatter.
And why wouldn't ATH see Paul churning out the same season? At 29, he's squarely in his prime and his individual winning percentages the past two seasons (.740 and .739) nicely illustrate just how consistent he is. Paul doesn't use as many possessions as he did in his top seasons in New Orleans, but every other facet of his game has remained intact. Last season, Paul shot a career-low 32.8 percent from 3-point range, although he offset that by doing more damage inside the arc. He has shot as high as 40.9 percent from deep in his career, and, if he has a fluky good-shooting campaign, it could put him over a .600 true shooting percentage for the first time in his career. In fact, ATH sees a regression in the 3-point rate, bringing Paul up to a .600 TS% on the nose. With so many weapons around him -- Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, Jared Dudley, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Reggie Bullock -- it will be up to Paul to orchestrate the most high-powered offensive attack he's been a part of to date.
2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7
By the time the MVP voting results were released during the playoffs, Westbrook had been knocked out by a knee injury, and, unfortunately, that's probably what we will remember most from his 2012-13 season. Overlooked at the time was the fact that Westbrook finished ninth in the voting despite ranking third in WARP. Although Westbrook's value to the Thunder was apparently overlooked when the ballots were completed, it was abundantly clear when he was absent in the postseason. ATH isn't forecasting a decline for Westbrook this season as much as a regression, and the distinction is important. Regression, in a statistical context, simply means moving toward average. It can be a positive or negative effect, yet many people take the term as a pejorative.
Westbrook took a huge leap last season, and, like Derrick Rose in 2011-12, he's likely to come back to earth just a little bit. ATH sees Westbrook maintaining his roughly 33 percent usage rate of the past two seasons. Given some possible shortages on the Oklahoma City bench, it could climb even higher depending on how many of his minutes come with Kevin Durant off the floor. If so, Westbrook's tepid efficiency could slide into the danger area.
3. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.4
On a per-possession basis, ATH sees Irving bypassing Westbrook as the second-best point guard in the NBA. In general, NBA players experience the most growth in their early 20s, and Irving will be barely 22 by the time the 2013-14 postseason rolls around. His revamped Cavaliers might well be a part of the proceedings. ATH sees a growth in Irving's efficiency inside and outside the arc, resulting in a soaring true shooting percentage of .574. That's all while using the same portion of Cleveland's offense as the other young Cavaliers grow around him. The three-win leap in WARP is doable, but it certainly would help if Irving can make it through a season healthy. After two seasons, his career high in games played is just 59.
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 10.7
Curry jumped from 4.7 WARP to 15.8 last season, but of course his health was the driving force in that quantum leap. Curry's winning percentage the past two seasons has been virtually identical: .665 and .669. He'll turn 26 this year, so chances are he has established his level of play, giving him a lower ceiling than someone like Irving. However, that level of play is still really impressive. You can set your watch by Curry's 3-point shooting, but last year he actually shot worse inside the arc than outside it. ATH sees a regression in the right direction in that regard, but a concurrent one in the wrong direction in Curry's turnover rate. If Curry can continue his improvement in ball protection, his bottom-line value will rival that of the non-Paul class of point guards.
5. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 9.9
With the change in talent around him, Williams will be one of the most intriguing players to watch in the coming season. In his best years in Utah, Williams was an assist machine, but, as a Net, he initially took on a heavy scoring load and his efficiency dropped off the map. Last season, with Brooklyn's roster improved, Williams' usage rate returned to previous levels, and his shooting percentages recovered accordingly. However, his assist rate was his lowest since his rookie season. Williams' turnovers also were down, so he simply had the ball less. With so much talent and so many alpha personalities on the new Nets, Williams can either be more of a cog in the machine or he can become its operator. Given the on-court proclivities of his new coach, Jason Kidd, I'm going to guess it's going to be the latter. If Williams can return to his days of double-digit assists, it will be a sign the new mix in Brooklyn is working.
6. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.5
ATH sees Conley's 2012-13 season as a career campaign, but he's not likely to regress much. The biggest uptick in his game last year was shot selection, with a 5 percent increase in the portion of his possessions that ended with a 3-point attempt. That kind of wisdom, once gained, is not easily lost.
7. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3
Forecasting games played always is tough, and the formula for doing so leaves Rose with just 61 games in his projection. That's what happens when a guy misses 109 regular-season games over two seasons. His winning percentage is tabbed at .607, down from the .679 he put up in his MVP season of 2010-11. ATH, like the rest of us, believes Rose has plenty to prove in the coming season.
8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the past three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.
9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lawson is a classic example of the usage/efficiency nexus. His usage rate has increased in every season of his career, and his true shooting percentage has declined. Just as important, though, his assist rate has steadily climbed even as his turnover rate has dropped. This season, ATH sees all those various elements coming together as Lawson steps into his prime.
10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
There is a school of thought that Lillard entered the NBA fully formed and that, as outstanding as he was in his rookie of the year campaign, Lillard is as good now as he's ever going to be. This is the season we begin to find out whether that's true. ATH projects that Lillard will take a significant step forward, with progress in shot selection and especially on the defensive end.
The next five: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio.
It's a point guard league right now, so there are some big names that slip outside the top 10. Rubio, who ranks 15th at 6.5 WARP, would rate as the No. 6 shooting guard, for example. So these are actually solid ratings for the up-and-coming Walker and Wall, even though they are both dinged for a combination of high usage rates and low shooting percentages.
Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the past two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.
Edit: Rondo would have been #10 if he was going to play a full season
Not sure how Conley would be better than rose ESPN stay trolling....
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Raptors had a chance to trade Rudy Gay for Ben Gordon and Charlie VDumars is trading for Rudy at some point, I know it.
at people still predicting solid numbers for him. My God.
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thats a good trade for detroit but the bucks though got robbed
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Wall, Rondo, Parker belong over Ty, Lillard, Lowry.
Pooh will end up higher.
Pooh will end up higher.
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What more could you get for Brandon Jennings really?
he's gone full on Broussard
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Melo one of the worst playoff records ever for someone who has played as many games, makes his teammates worse, bad defender, slows/ruins offensive sets, no leadership qualities, negative net intagibles, so so far from being a superstar and now I have said my piece.
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pistons have been in rebuilding mode for so long & had some real nice up & coming players with drummond, monroe, & knight... the best move long term for detroit would've been to keep developing those guys, & focus on building a team with the money they threw at josh smith while also piling up on draft picks. easier said then done since that process takes a lot of time, but they were on their way to doing so.
as of now, they have a playoff bound team, but similar to the hawks a couple years ago, i see them as first round exits. i've always been a jennings fan & i've always thought smith was a very good all around player, but i would've liked to see both those guys in different situations (looking at the bigger picture), because their style of play will have the offense based on them, & monroe, drummond, & knight will now have to take the back seat.
as of now, they have a playoff bound team, but similar to the hawks a couple years ago, i see them as first round exits. i've always been a jennings fan & i've always thought smith was a very good all around player, but i would've liked to see both those guys in different situations (looking at the bigger picture), because their style of play will have the offense based on them, & monroe, drummond, & knight will now have to take the back seat.
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Rubio going to have a great season if he can stay healthy, i would rather have him on my squad than John Wall #NoLie
Knight was never good, just hyped up because he played for John Cali he was average at best.
Knight was never good, just hyped up because he played for John Cali he was average at best.
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Stephen A Smith's rumors todayhe's gone full on Broussard
..what he say?
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^ ok bad playoff record and all melo has been to the playoffs every year since his rookie year and never missed the playoffs period
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