***OFFICIAL NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS SEASON THREAD*** (13-4) - Patriots @ Broncos - Sun 3:05PM EST - Bra

Caught up w/ the last week I missed and props to @STR8DROP for the posts. Good stuff g.

As long as the Ravens are in the playoffs and have their remaining core group, they're always gonna be a scary sight. You know for DAMN sure they're not gonna be intimidated like a lot of other teams are when they head up here and face this team...so that's out the window. I don't really care to use match-ups from a bunch of years ago though, it's all about their personnel and schemes from recent history.

Simply put, the Ravens have a chance because their greatest strength (pass rush and STRONG front line play) is our biggest weakness and the top killer for basically every postseason L since '07. Any team that can consistently pressure Brady without blitzing has a chance to win the game. Baltimore is able to do that. Hell, they just did it last week against the Steelers.

Another thing we can't ignore is it just so happens that the Ravens D #1 liability is their weak secondary giving up deep passes for big plays. Not exactly something our team's been able to execute at an acceptable level in the last few seasons. So while we should all expect them to take shots down the field, it ain't like it's guaranteed for us in that department. Hopefully they get it to work on Saturday.

It's been said repeatedly and you're gonna hear it a few more times, but it's really all about Ravens' front 7. If our o-line can man up and hold their own, Brady will pick them apart and we'll be celebrating before the 4th Q is finished. But if Solder & co. can't handle Suggs + Dumervil at the edge, Ngata on the inside, and all the creative looks & schemes they cook up, it's gonna be a long *** game for us.

I do feel like the talk is sort of becoming more one-sided for how Baltimore is gonna come in here and whoop us.
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That's all I hear, too. But I guess it's the respect they've earned for previous victories with Flacco and his hail mary, penalty drawing ***.

In Revis I trust.
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i feel like not being able to block 4 pass rushers with 5 offensive lineman would be such a stupid ******* reason to lose this game. it will boil my blood if our season ends because they're getting to the QB by only rushing 4. don't fail me OL. not this week.

bedard did say that despite the ravens' success in getting to ben, ben actually left quite a few plays out there on the field. he had chances to get the ball out to open receivers and just didn't see the field well at all. hopefully brady does a better job seeing the field...and more importantly, hopefully he CONTINUES to see the field well AFTER getting hit a time or two. praying he hangs tough in there because i know he's going to take a shot or two minimum.

i don't like predictions...but i can see it being tight with us pulling away in the fourth thanks to the defense late. sounds cliche, but that's how i see it. as usual, you won't get an actual score prediction (a serious one) from me :lol:
 
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If anyone still doubts what's key in this game, I think both of these are worth a read. Yeah, it's long and very insightful. Y'all should be getting used to that by now.
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No Pass Coverage, No Problem: How Baltimore’s Front Seven Masks Its Depleted Secondary 

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January 7, 2015
by Robert Mays

For the Ravens-Steelers Sunday-night game in Baltimore in Week 9, NBC might as well have broadcast a bonfire. Ben Roethlisberger threw for six touchdown passes for the second time in as many weeks, as the Steelers hung up 43 points, the best single-game total in the rivalry’s (relatively) short history.[sup]1[/sup] Despite the outlying nature of the result, it was easy to see why Pittsburgh had so much success.

After an injury to cornerback Jimmy Smith, the 2011 first-round pick who’d finally begun to hit his stride, Baltimore became desperately thin at cornerback. Dominique Franks, who started in Smith’s place in Week 9, was scorched so badly by Antonio Brown & Friends that he ended up getting cut two days later. For the rest of the season, the Ravens played Lardarius Webb and Who’s That Dude? at corner, rotating through a group of anonymous names like Anthony Levine, Danny Gorrer, Asa Jackson, and Rashaan Melvin. The final three weeks of the year were a brief reprieve — Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and, seriously, Connor Shaw in consecutive weeks — but with the playoffs and a warpath through Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady standing in the way, it felt like everything would soon come crashing down beneath a hail of downfield passes.

Through at least one postseason game, though, they’ve been all right. Roethlisberger threw for 334 yards in the Steelers’ 30-17 wild-card loss, but much of that came in the second half, with Baltimore decidedly in control. A few members of the Baltimore secondary even had decent days, including safety Will Hill, who, when he was able to stay on the field, often performed for the Giants. But the main lesson from the Ravens’ win is that as long as their front four[sup]2[/sup] play like they did Saturday, they could replace Danny Gorrer with Danny Glover and everything would be just fine.

Baltimore hammered Roethlisberger, sacking him five times, hitting him five more, and causing genuine discomfort all night. What the Ravens showed on Saturday is that through a combination of front-line depth, talent, and a scheme that utilizes both of those things, they can slow down pretty much anyone.

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It all starts with the outside linebackers. The praise Tom Brady heaped on Terrell Suggs this week felt like pure, distilled Belichick, but he wasn’t wrong. Suggs doesn’t look like a guy just trying to make it through the final weeks of his 12th season. He did a little bit of everything on Saturday, including some good work dropping into coverage that eventually ended with an interception. Across from Suggs, Elvis Dumervil is having the best season of his career. He finished the regular season with 17 sacks before adding two more against the Steelers, and in terms of pure pass-rushing threats, he’s just a notch below the J.J. Watts and Justin Houstons of the world.

Finding two pass-rushing linebackers isn’t easy, but plenty of teams manage to. What makes the Ravens uniquely dangerous is how they build around those guys. For example, Baltimore took Pernell McPhee in the fifth round of the 2011 draft. The 26-year-old is a 280-pound sort-of linebacker, sort-of defensive end in the Ravens’ scheme, and this season he’s become an all-purpose defender, shifting his role depending on situation. You’ll occasionally see him spelling Suggs outside on early downs, but what really makes the Ravens a nightmare is how they use McPhee in obvious passing situations.



The Ravens have too many different looks to count, but when it comes to pure pass rushing, this is easily the scariest. Suggs and Dumervil line up wide, with McPhee standing up as a 3-technique tackle over the left guard, and Haloti Ngata mirroring him on the other side. The Steelers identify McPhee as a central threat, and against a guard, he is. Pittsburgh slides Maurkice Pouncey in that direction to provide help, which leaves both Ngata and Dumervil one-on-one. Ngata crashes hard inside, leaving Dumervil with a city block in which to attack Marcus Gilbert. I know it may be hard to believe, but that ended miserably for Pittsburgh.

Dumervil’s move on Gilbert — and really, it’s something he’s done all year — is a good reminder of how luck influences the makeup of every team. Baltimore’s entire plan on this play is constructed around Dumervil’s ability to take advantage of Gilbert. If the Broncos and Dumervil knew more about fax machines, this wouldn’t even be an option. Outdated technology might just swing the AFC playoff race.

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Despite all of this talent at his disposal, Dean Pees, Baltimore’s defensive coordinator, isn’t afraid to get weird. On the above play, the only player between the tackles is Ngata, who has two linebackers flanking him way outside in both directions. The action on the offense’s left — with C.J. Mosley and Suggs — is more of a distraction than anything, a way to occupy bodies and maybe bait Roethlisberger into throwing hot without seeing Suggs drop into coverage.

The real threat comes from the other side, with McPhee looping around Ngata. It’s a good example of how scheme and talent often work in tandem. Any defensive coordinator can draw this up, but if he doesn’t have the players necessary to make it work, the planning doesn’t matter. Ngata — who was an absolute monster in his first game back — demands attention and resources, and he gets both as Pouncey completely turns his body, even as Ngata slants away from him. That leaves space for McPhee, who’s quick enough to take advantage of the alley Ngata creates for him.

Baltimore’s outside depth and creativity are matched — and maybe even exceeded — by what’s inside. Getting Ngata back, especially as a pass-rusher, obviously helps, but the Ravens can trot out at least four other useful players on the interior. My favorite of those is second-year nose tackle Brandon Williams, whom the Ravens took out of tiny Missouri Southern State in the third round of last year’s draft. He barely saw the field as a rookie, but in Year 2 he’s been the centerpiece of Baltimore’s entire run defense.[sup]3[/sup]

At 335 pounds, a reasonable expectation for Williams would be “space eater,” a player who chews up blocks to help free up linebackers Mosley and Daryl Smith to clean up plays near the line of scrimmage. But instead of just chewing up blocks, Williams does the cleaning up, too. Below, Williams takes on a double-team before shedding David DeCastro and dropping the running back for a modest 2-yard gain. It’s a remarkable play, and it’s one Williams makes at a truly ridiculous rate for someone his size.

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Throw in Timmy Jernigan — who’s been great in his limited snaps this year and could play on Saturday against New England — and Chris Canty might be only the Ravens’ fourth-best interior lineman on the field in Foxborough. That’s not a bad place to be.

Over the past decade, the Patriots have made a living of taking advantage of what other teams do poorly, and there’s a good chance Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will have some ideas about how to exploit whichever former practice-squad player lines up at corner for the Ravens. But New England has weaknesses of its own. The Patriots were shuffling their offensive line as recently as Week 16, when 2013 undrafted rookie Josh Kline took over for Dan Connolly at left guard. And while these offensive-line concerns may not be as alarming as they were early in the season, it’s not hard to envision the Patriots having a rough day against the Ravens front. Baltimore built this defense around a deep and terrifying collection of run stuffers and pass-rushers, and on Saturday, there’s a chance that’s more than enough.
Saturday's game preview from the great Bill Barnwell.
[h2]Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots[/h2]
The Ravens can also claim some measure of recent competitiveness against the Patriots. Baltimore has made three playoff trips into Foxborough as an underdog during the last five seasons and come away with two double-digit wins and a last-second defeat that required a dropped pass[sup]3[/sup] in the end zone and a 32-yard shanked field goal. Outscoring the Patriots by 31 points at home across three playoff games is a decidedly impressive feat.

And yet I don’t think it means as much here as it might in terms of the Carolina-Seattle matchup. Those Ravens-Pats games come across a much longer period of time; nothing screams “Irrelevant!” to the current NFL more than a game that started with an 83-yard touchdown run from Ray Rice, as the playoff game between these two teams did during the 2009 postseason. It also seems wrong to exclude the four regular-season games these teams played during that same stretch of time from any analysis, and the roles there were reversed; the Patriots won three of those four games, including a 41-7 shellacking in Week 16 last year that dramatically dashed Baltimore’s playoff hopes. The one game New England lost came on a last-second field goal that might have actually been a miss.

Combine those regular-season and postseason performances since 2009 and you get a relatively even recent history between these two teams. In seven games, five of which have been played in New England, the Ravens are 3-4. They were underdogs by a combined 18 points across the seven contests and actually were outscored by a total of 11 points. Things have gone just about how you might have expected on a cumulative basis. Stories of the past will surround this weekend’s game, but I doubt they tell us very much at all.

Doomed

It’s not fair to say that this game hinges entirely upon how Elvis Dumervil, Pernell McPhee, and Terrell Suggs play. Joe Flacco could melt down or Tom Brady could blow out his knee on the opening series, and every other word from here on out could mean absolutely nothing. That’s possible. It’s hard to think of a single aspect of this matchup deeper at its crux, though, than Baltimore’s premier pass-rushers and how they can fundamentally change the matchup between these two teams when New England has the ball. My colleague Robert Mays did a great job of explaining how Baltimore gets pressure with its rushers yesterday, and you should read that before going any further.

Life would be very easy for the Ravens if they did not have to blitz Tom Brady very frequently during this game. Of course, blitzing once in a while is good, if only to throw a quarterback off, or force a shorter throw to a hot receiver, or try to give yourself a better chance of creating a takeaway. Baltimore simply can’t drop seven or eight into coverage on every play. But given that the Ravens were starting Lardarius Webb and a group of journeymen at cornerback last week and the Steelers spent the entire game picking on Webb, you can understand why the Ravens would want to commit as many resources to coverage as possible. The numbers illustrate how unfavorable that concept is for Baltimore.

First, there’s the fact that there might not be a quarterback who adjusts better to blitzes than Brady within this Patriots offense. For whatever weaknesses he might have now at age 37, Brady’s ability to read defenses before and at the snap and make quick, safe throws to open receivers remains unquestioned. He’s phenomenal against blitzes, and the Josh McDaniels–led scheme always seems to have a Julian Edelman or a Shane Vereen open for a safe, efficient completion. Brady is seventh in the league in QBR (at 73.1) when teams don’t blitz him, but when they send pressure, Brady’s 87.8 QBR is the best in all of football.

Over the past five years, the only passer with a better QBR against blitzes than Brady is Aaron Rodgers, and nobody else is within 10 QBR points of Rodgers. It’s just terrifying: Against the blitz over that time frame, Brady has thrown 72 touchdowns against six interceptions. He has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio against the blitz, and the only other guy above 4-to-1 is Rodgers. You just do not want to blitz this man unless you absolutely have to.

Getting pressure on Brady is absolutely important; he was 20th in the league in QBR when he was hit or under duress this season. The Ravens want to get pressure on Brady without having to commit serious manpower to doing so, which is why Dumervil, McPhee, and Suggs are so important. If they can win their one-on-one battles and allow the Ravens to get pressure by rushing four, they can clog up Brady’s throwing lanes, read the hot routes that Brady’s relying upon, and make quick tackles for modest gains.

When Baltimore managed to get pressure without blitzing this season, opposing quarterbacks did not fare well. How bad were they? Opposing quarterbacks went 15-of-52 for 158 yards with five interceptions and 32 sacks. They posted a passer rating of 0.2. That’s not a typo. Zero-point-two. No quarterback has thrown 10 passes in a game and posted a passer rating of 0.2 or worse since Chris Redman in 2007. That Andy Dalton game when he went 10-of-33 with three picks against the Browns? 2.0. Blows 0.2 out of the water. That Ryan Lindley playoff game we just saw when I was genuinely afraid the Cardinals wouldn’t let him fly home on the team plane? A robust 44.3.

You might figure that all defenses look better when they’re getting pressure without blitzing, and they do, but nobody comes close to Baltimore. The Patriots have the second-best passer rating in the league in the same category, and they’re at 14.6. The league average in that spot for passers is 52.7. Throw in the sack yardage and the Ravens actually gain yardage — 0.4 yards per dropback, or roughly what their running game did in 2013 — when they pull off the pressure-without-blitzing trick. Nobody else in football can say that.

Putting pressure on somebody else is a good way to mask your own insecurities, and sure enough, that’s exactly what the Ravens do when they apply heat to opposing passers. Teams basically can’t throw downfield when the opposing team gets pressure on defense. On throws that travel 15 yards or more in the air, the passer rating for quarterbacks when they’re not pressured is a robust 92.2, roughly in the Ryan Tannehill/Eli Manning range. (That’s better than it sounds.) When they are pressured, though, that falls all the way to 63.6, which is three points worse than Blaine Gabbert’s career passer rating. It’s a distressing gap.

Baltimore’s biggest weakness on defense, bar none, is dealing with teams when they throw downfield. By any measure you can find, the Ravens are downright abysmal against deep passes.[sup]4[/sup] By QBR, they’re the third-worst pass defense in the league, allowing a 99.3 figure to opposing quarterbacks. By passer rating, the 110.4 mark they put up against those deep passes is the fifth-worst rate in the league.

The Ravens don’t do a notable job of encouraging or suppressing those passes, finishing right around league average among defenses in terms of deep pass frequency, but they get through and turn into big gains far more frequently than the Ravens would care to see. Teams complete 51.2 percent of those 15-plus-yard throws against the Ravens, more than against any other team remaining in this year’s playoffs.

The good news for them is that the Patriots aren’t really a team built to throw downfield. They don’t have the personnel at wide receiver to really challenge teams deep, with those duties often falling to Brian Tyms or even Brandon LaFell, who has been limited in practice this week with a foot injury. Concerns about Brady’s arm strength from earlier this season are overstated, but it’s been fair to say that the primary strength of Brady’s game has been his accuracy on short and intermediate throws as opposed to his ability to sling the ball downfield, especially in the post–Randy Moss era. Brady is just 21st in the league in QBR on throws 15 or more yards downfield, where his 88.7 passer rating is 14th among qualifying quarterbacks.

Naturally, you won’t be surprised to hear that Brady makes his hay on those shorter routes. On passes that travel 0 to 14 yards in the air, Brady’s a wizard, finishing third in the league in both passer rating and QBR this season. The problem for Brady is that the Ravens are good at stopping those throws; Baltimore has posted the sixth-best passer rating in the NFL on those attempts, albeit with a less impressive 16th-placed rank in QBR. The easiest way to beat the Ravens is to throw it deep. The Patriots won’t necessarily need a bomb on Saturday to beat Baltimore, but it sure wouldn’t hurt matters if Tyms found his way past the likes of Darian Stewart and Will Hill for a huge chunk of yardage at some point.

Ravens fans will likely eye tape of the disastrous Patriots loss to the Chiefs in Week 4 and hope that they can emulate that on Saturday. It makes some sense; the Chiefs have a pair of dominant edge rushers, as do the Ravens, with a couple of bigger bullies in the middle, as Haloti Ngata and the returning Timmy Jernigan stand in for Dontari Poe. The Chiefs use their pass rush to compensate for a middling secondary, and the Ravens would be happy to do the same.

You could see how Baltimore might emulate that approach, but the Patriots haven’t been overwhelmed by teams with great pass rushes every time they’ve gone out this year. The Bills didn’t give New England much trouble when the Patriots scored 37 on them in Week 6, and while Buffalo dominated in Week 17, that was mostly against backups. The Jets manufactured a pass rush almost solely out of Rex Ryan’s dark dreams and slowed Brady in Week 16, but the Patriots were fine against them in a short week in Week 7, and the Jets don’t have the sort of edge dominance that the Ravens and Chiefs share.

With the Patriots having settled on a far superior offensive line combination and having seen the return of the real Rob Gronkowski after that Chiefs game, it’s going to be tough for the Ravens to dominate in the same way that the Chiefs did in September. Not impossible, mind you. Just tough.

Save Flacco

In a way, it’ll be more intriguing to see how the Patriots decide to match up on defense against Baltimore’s passing attack, a unit that lines up with the vaunted New England secondary in strange, awkward ways.

Start with Brandon Browner, whose mix of size and strength has been a welcome addition to the Patriots secondary this season. Browner is a great matchup against physical wideouts who focus on winning at the line of scrimmage and maintaining their timing throughout routes … so whom does he match up with here? Steve Smith is not a great fit for him, because Smith is physical but far shorter than Browner. There’s a point where having a half-foot of height on a receiver simply isn’t an advantage, because it’s so much easier for the receiver to gain a lower center of gravity; tall cornerbacks have never been able to eat Smith up. The logical move for the Patriots would be to stick Darrelle Revis on Smith around the field.

The alternative is putting Browner on Torrey Smith, which is a disaster waiting to happen. As I mentioned on Monday, the other Smith has been a defensive pass interference penalty-drawing machine this year, drawing 11 flags for 229 yards this season before adding another 32-yarder in the first round of the playoffs. He has nearly twice as many DPI penalties and yardage drawn as anybody else in football. And Browner’s been a penalty machine for the Patriots, picking up a whopping 15 penalties (including five pass interference calls) in just nine games with New England.

So, Browner on Smith seems dangerous. A third option might be the best way for the Patriots to go: putting Browner on Owen Daniels. Tight ends have been the biggest weakness for the New England pass defense this season; the Patriots rank 17th or better in DVOA against all types of receivers besides tight ends, where they are the third-worst team in football. Daniels is very clearly the third target in a three-man group of receivers for Baltimore; he has 78 targets in 15 games, and the next most-targeted receiver for the Ravens is Kamar Aiken, who has just 33 in 16 games. Browner is far more comfortable on the sidelines than he is working in the slot or around the middle of the field, but by process of elimination, it would be best to use him on Daniels if the Patriots plan on playing a lot of man coverage. That would leave Kyle Arrington, likely with safety help on most plays, against Torrey Smith.

Unfortunately for the Ravens, the Patriots simply don’t have the sort of problems with downfield throws that Baltimore looked forward to exploiting against the Steelers. The Patriots are basically static against all kinds of passes. They’re 12th in the league in passer rating on throws of 15 yards or more downfield … and 14th on throws that travel 0-14 yards in the air.

Flacco arrested a late-season slump and produced an 85.9 QBR in an impressive performance last week, the third-best QBR he’s achieved in his postseason career behind the Super Bowl win over the 49ers and the wild-card performance that preceded it at home versus the Colts. He was only 1-of-4 on passes 40 yards or more in the air, but those passes produced 81 yards and the pass interference call for Smith.

The biggest problem for Flacco was pressure, as fill-in left tackle James Hurst allowed no fewer than six hurries against a hardly impressive pass rush. Starting left tackle Eugene Monroe is suggesting that he’s on pace to return this week, and while Monroe hasn’t been dominant this season, he would be a comfortable upgrade on the undrafted free agent starting in his place.

New England, on the other hand, can count on a healthy Chandler Jones. Jones quietly made his way back into the lineup at the end of the season, nabbing a sack and a half during his Week 15 return against the Dolphins before adding two hits while playing every single defensive snap against the Jets in Week 16. Jones played only a limited number of snaps in Week 17, but he’s now gotten some game rust out of his system and should be fresher for the postseason than he would be in most years, given how he plays virtually every snap for New England when healthy. His matchup — whether versus a gimpy Monroe or an overmatched Hurst — could be just as important as Suggs versus Sebastian Vollmer.

On a more holistic, larger-game approach, I wonder if the Ravens try to construct an offensive game plan built around running the ball and trying to retain possession while playing a field-position game. It fits several of their strengths well. By holding on to the football and reducing the tempo of the game, Baltimore would allow its pass-rushers to stay fresh for as long as possible and not subject them to a 13- or 14-possession game. Any play in which the Ravens secondary is on the sideline is a good one for John Harbaugh.

A run-heavy game plan might also allow the Ravens to starve the Patriots of critical turnovers while playing a field-position game that they’re better suited to win. While both these teams have very good special teams, the Ravens had the league’s best punting unit this season, with Sam Koch & Co. producing 17.9 points of field position value above average. New England gets above-average punt return work from the combination of Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, but most of what they do best comes on field goals and kickoffs from Stephen Gostkowski.

The one concern I would have about that game plan, were I the Ravens, is that Baltimore’s style of running the football doesn’t really fit New England’s weaknesses. The Patriots are a disciplined bunch that don’t allow many big plays, but they can really be exploited in short yardage by bigger lines. The Patriots defense had the league’s worst success rate on runs in “power” situations per Football Outsiders, and stuffed opposing runners behind the line for a loss more than only four other teams.

The Ravens can’t really do that. They’re running a zone-blocking scheme that isn’t optimized for power, and they don’t have the horses to really maul the opposing defensive front into submitting. Baltimore’s offensive line is the fifth-worst line in football in terms of “power” situations, moving up to seventh-worst in terms of stuffs in the backfield for a loss. It would help to get Monroe back and possibly shift Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda back to his natural position from right tackle.

After all that, though, I still think about the Baltimore pass rush and figure that unit decides this game. If the Patriots do enough to keep Suggs and Dumervil off of Brady, it should be a long day for the Ravens in Foxborough. And if the fearsome duo on the edge for Baltimore manage to pull away and have a field day against Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer, well, it shouldn’t take too much time beyond them to find Brady. The pass rush might have won Baltimore its rivalry matchup with Pittsburgh last week; this time around, it’ll have to play a bigger, more valuable game.
Disagree somewhat with his Arrington/Browner point. Everything else was cool.

Also, like @Prez T mentioned, this is the healthiest we've been in YEARS. I think a lot of people on the outside are skipping over that. We're almost good at every key spot.

It's about damn time we go on another run...
 
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good reads.

so we know what baltimore is going to do. how do you neutralize that front seven? outside of blocking extremely well and brady making sure the OL knows what's coming, what do you do to move the ball? spread it out? keep in an extra blocker? double TE sets? unlike pittsburgh who for the most part just goes out each week and does their thing, we're a team that has a very specific gameplan week to week, customized for each opponent. it's going to be interesting to see what approach we take.

i don't really know what the best method is. i will say...i hope we make use of the uptempo and hurry up offense this week. i want to open the game with it on our first possession. i don't want to run on the ravens out of obvious running formations. you can probably get em on shotgun runs and draws. and while their defense appears beatable with the long ball, i think we're sunk if brady starts chucking it deep. i do think they'll have a plan similar to what we saw versus DET which was pass heavy.
 
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as far as coverage and our CBs...here's what i want to see:

1)
revis on smith sr
browner on torrey with help over the top
some combo of chung/collins/arrington handling daniels

or

2)
revis on torrey
browner on smith sr
some combo of chung/collins/arrington handling daniels


the two things to keep in mind:
1) is torrey smith 100%? hasn't looked it since coming back from injury...but if he's not 100%, maybe browner can handle him
2) how are the refs calling the game. if they let them play, browner might be able to stick with smith and rough him up a bit.

i would almost start with the second option and see how that works. if the flags start flying, switch to the first.

agreed with what you said, DSK...arrington on torrey smith is not a good idea. don't like that one bit. and it implies browner on daniels which i also don't want. not to start, at least.
 
Bolden and Chung both got contract extensions today. Once I hear about Revis getting his, I'll be happy.
 
FOXBORO — Tom Brady will have a chance to devour the Ravens’ porous pass defense tomorrow in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Of course, the great caveat is whether the Patriots offensive line will hold up its end by keeping Brady on his feet, which will be its greatest challenge.

But from there, it’s going to be on Brady to slice through a Ravens defense that ranked 23rd against the pass in the regular season and surrendered 334 yards Saturday to Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Those weren’t of the garbage-time variety, either.

The Ravens have shown two trends that aren’t conducive to limiting the Patriots’ offensive strengths. Their cornerbacks frequently play well off the line of scrimmage, and their linebackers struggle to clog passing lanes due to poor zone awareness.

Enter Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell.

“There are opportunities every game,” Gronkowski said. “There are always opportunities as long as we go out there and execute as a team. Anytime we can be stopped, if we’re being lazy and not playing together as a team. We’re going to play together as a team, and if I’m doing my job to the best of my ability, there are always plays to be open.

“But we’ve got to go out there and be ready because they’ve got a very good team. There’s no doubt about that.”

The Patriots’ greatest challenge begins with keeping Brady comfortable in the pocket against a ferocious pass rush. All five of the Ravens’ sacks Saturday against the Steelers occurred with a four-man rush, so they can clearly win one-on-one matchups. That puts a huge burden on tackles Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer to neutralize edge rushers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs, who help interior linemen Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee and Brandon Williams close the pocket.

The Ravens notched a sack on each of the Steelers’ first three possessions, and that’s a scary notion for any quarterback.

“There’s a lot of pressure on us to do a good job,” left guard Dan Connolly said. “That’s what we try to do every week. It’s our job to make sure Tom stays upright.”

Brady will have to keep plays alive with his feet, too, because clean pockets don’t grow on trees against the Ravens. Also, expect to see an abundance of quick passes, which the Pats utilized to counter the Lions’ nasty front in Week 12.

From there, the advantageous matchups begin on the outside against a group of cornerbacks who frequently line up 6-8 yards off the line and allow receivers to get free releases. The Steelers’ vertical route tree didn’t take advantage of this, but the Chargers did during their 34-33 victory in Week 13 when Philip Rivers completed out-route after out-route.

Look for the same, plus some hitch routes, from Edelman and LaFell. Those routes can then evolve into deeper patterns and double moves, as their cornerbacks have displayed a pattern of over-anticipating against what they’ve already seen.

The Patriots can also exploit the middle of the Ravens defense, especially linebacker Daryl Smith, who gets lost in his zone assignments far too often, to the point where Brady might actively seek him out the same way he has for Joe Mays and other linebackers in the past. Smith struggles when he allows routes to get behind him, including Chargers receiver Keenan Allen’s 12-yard touchdown when Smith bit on Rivers’ head fake before the throw.

The safeties haven’t helped him much, either. Smith somehow got stuck covering receiver Antonio Brown last week when Brown raced past him and through deep backs Jeromy Miles and Antoine Cason for a key 44-yard gain in the fourth quarter.

This is where Gronkowski could really go to work.

After all, tight ends Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates totaled 13 receptions, 130 yards and two touchdowns in back-to-back games against the Ravens, so the Pats could use Gronkowski in a number of ways over the middle. He might not get as many free releases with the possibility of jams from linebacker Courtney Upshaw, but Gronk pushed them throughout the season.

Gronkowski could be a decoy, too. Because Smith and linebacker C.J. Mosley are quick to chase shallow routes, Gronk could stay short while Edelman and LaFell run deep crosses. All of these schemes should be on the table.

However, they’re still the Ravens, but this year, more now than in recent memory, the matchups seem to sway in the favor of the Patriots offense.

“They’re still Baltimore,” Edelman said. “Every year, they’re a little different. They’re different this year. They still have a lot of explosive players at all positions. They’re a real savvy team in the playoffs. Once they’re here in this tournament, it seems like they always do good things. We’re definitely going to have our work cut out for us.”

***

The Patriots can expose the Ravens’ 23rd-ranked pass defense if they handle three areas.

1. Stop the rush: The Ravens’ 49 regular-season sacks were the most among playoff teams, and Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs combined for 29. They create pressure without blitzing, as all five sacks against the Steelers occurred with a four-man rush. The Patriots absolutely must give Tom Brady a clean pocket for at least 3 seconds in order for him to take advantage of the linebackers and defensive backs.

2. In a corner: Ravens cornerbacks tend to back off the line of scrimmage by 6-8 yards, which is similar to the defensive tactics employed by the Broncos and Lions. In those cases, it didn’t matter how quickly their pass rushers could get to Brady because the Patriots had already designed a plan to unload the ball on short passes. Look for a series of out-routes and hitches by Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell. Once the cornerbacks start cheating, they’ve shown a pattern of getting exposed by double moves.

3. Linebacker problems: Linebacker Daryl Smith has frequently gotten lost in his zone assignments, especially when receivers and tight ends get behind him because he’ll float in the wrong direction or bite on a route in front of him. The Patriots can exploit that by trying to single him up on Rob Gronkowski or by sending Edelman and LaFell on deep crossing patterns. Expect the Pats to combine those tactics with shallow crossing routes as a diversion.

sounds nice, of course. but as we've been saying...all starts up front. block the pass rushers and we're golden
 
if you guys have NFL game rewind , its worth watching back the Ravens game from last year . i seriously dont understand how that game isnt being brought up in conversation by people on networks . we were able to neutralize their pass rush with the running game and short, quick passes to Edelman and Amendola . they struggled against our defense , which was significantly worse (no Revis , no Browner , no Wilfork) . i feel like we have a great example of a formula that will work well against this team , and just have to stick to it
 
gameday is near us fellas 
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 may we cook this team

good reads in here as well and DSK's and DSA's thoughts 
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watching the game from the AFC championship back -- i forgot we also didnt have Talib in that game ! he went out in the first quarter after injuring his hamstring . we had dennard , arrington , and marquis cole for the majority of the game :stoneface:
 
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talib went out versus the broncos and versus the ravens during our last two playoff losses. before him going out, we were looking perfectly fine in both games (defensively). all fell apart after that. so that's definitely a big difference this time :pimp:
 
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