2014 NFL Draft Thread

[do work son]

although, if that scenario worked like that, i'd prefer we trade with cleveland obviously and get johnny at 4, but who knows

Why would they do that?

Make sure you get the guy you want, instead of who's left? I wouldn't do it, I'm just saying it's a possibility.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Raiders won't take Watkins if one of the three QBs is still there.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

If Clowney and all the QBs are taken then I see us taking him

 

[proshares]

Rams shouldn't take ANOTHER WR.

They need OL help.

QB / OL = profit

I read an article that said even though they were playing musical chairs on that oline, they were a top 10 unit for much of the year.

Lemme see if I can find it. Def. could see them drafting an o-lineman simply because of the division they play in.

I think it was after Jake went down that they started to fall, I vaguely remember the article you were talking about. I think two guys are FA's coming up.

They desperately need WR help too though.

 

[herbshuttles15]

Barr is a 3-4 OLB to me I feel like at any other position you're wasting some of his abilities

 

[romedadude]

If this happens, the Rams essentially traded RGIII for:

Teddy Bridgewater
Michael Brockers
Isaiah Pead
Janoris Jenkins
Alec Ogletree
Stedman Bailey
Zac Stacy

:x

Washington.

:x

Good lord

Meanwhile the browns traded Julio Jones for....?

Idk?

According to Wikipedia

Jon Baldwin
Greg Little
Owen Marecic
Brandon Weeden
Jarius Wright

So Cleveland only drafted 3 of those guys with picks they received: Marecic (since cut), Little (shaky), and Weeden (on his way out?).

Yeah, they lost.

 

[worldbeefreeg]

Don't the Raiders need a lot of help on D...I'm not saying Pryor set the world on fire but he was decent enough where I though I would give him another year.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Barr is a 3-4 OLB to me I feel like at any other position you're wasting some of his abilities

Kiper made a good point about that though. A great player will adapt to whatever system that he's put in, and Barr is a smart guy.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Don't the Raiders need a lot of help on D...I'm not saying Pryor set the world on fire but he was decent enough where I though I would give him another year.

In my opinion, the Raiders will be addressing much of the defensive needs in free agency.

 

[bigmike23]

 

Barr is a 3-4 OLB to me I feel like at any other position you're wasting some of his abilities

Kiper made a good point about that though. A great player will adapt to whatever system that he's put in, and Barr is a smart guy.

he is not the best at coverage I don't see him playing well in a 4-3.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

[h1]  [/h1]

[h1]Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics[/h1]
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
 

Much will be written about the talent and depth in this year’s wide receiver draft class; it’ll be one of those truisms that gets passed around non-stop. Just looking at the stats of the top tier of WRs shows us that it isn’t just an empty platitude, but rather a statement that has a lot of merit. On average, this year’s class of WRs gained more yards after the catch, dropped less balls, and achieved production utilizing a much wider array of talents. I’ll expand on those stats in the piece, but it’s important to note that these stats won’t predict which WR will be better, but explain their production and complement film study.

Where Did They Catch the Ball?

The table below represents the percentage of catches in each zone, it is color-coded so that an above-average number of receptions is greener and a below-average number is redder.

 

- Sammy Watkins’ receptions stick out like a sore thumb. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s watched Clemson that 57% of Watkins’ catches came off screens. We’ll examine his yards after the catch in relation to screens later in the piece, but that doesn’t discount the fact that you’d like to see more than 30% of his receptions come past 6 yards – just for some variation.

- The most normalized reception chart belongs to Mike Evans, who was the closest to average among the top tier. Much will be made about Manziel and Evans’ connection and reliance on each other for deep balls. However, we still have to be impressed by the fact that at 6’5” Evans has caught the highest percentage of receptions past 20 yards amongst the top 15 WRs in this class. 

- Like Evans, 25% of Benjamin’s receptions came on throws deeper than 20 yards. Benjamin’s receptions are well distributed among the various zones with the exception of screens. He caught 3 screens on the year where he totaled -8 yards. The screen game is not going to be strong for Kelvin at the next level.

- Lee’s receptions are the most stunning, as only 3.5% of his catches (2 receptions) came deeper than 20 yards. He actually dropped more deep passes (3) than he caught. Other than that, we can see the influence of Kiffin’s passing game where the majority of Lee’s receptions came on short passes designed to get yards after the catch.

What Did They Do After They Caught It?

 

- As alluded to earlier, Marqise Lee  was put in situations where he could catch the ball short and take it for good yardage. His 7.05 yards after the catch is top 5 in the class, although his paltry 3.7 yards after the catch on screens leaves a little something to be desired.

- We can see the effects of Benjamin’s deep receptions as he caught the ball an average of 13.4 yards from the line of scrimmage, proving to be a solid deep threat. However, his 4.89 yards after the catch is the lowest among the top 15 WRs. That’s not necessarily a problem with a bigger WR as that’s not ‘where he wins’. However, we still have to take that into account when comparing him to other similarly sized WRs.

- Benjamin’s YAC becomes relevant when compared to Evans who averaged 7.63 yards after the catch. His yardage wasn’t just racked up on broken Manziel plays. On screens he averaged 8.92 yards after the catch, displaying an innate shiftiness/burst that he may not always get credit for. 

- I was a bit hard on Watkins earlier for his lack of receptions downfield, however we have to be impressed with his YAC. Despite catching 70% of his passes within 5 yards of the LOS, where defenses were keying in on him – he averaged the highest YAC of this class gaining 8.48 yards on average. Most importantly he still averaged a solid 6.1 yards on non-screen passes showing he can get it done all over the field

How Did they Catch the Ball?

The chart below represents the final break each WR made before catching the ball. The goal isn’t to tell you exactly what routes each WR ran, but the variety of breaks they made as well as how those affected their production. For instance, comebacks typically yield very little YAC (2.5 yards on average) while posts/corner/slants yield high yards after the catch. The chart has factored out screens.

 

- When he’s not running screens, Watkins has the most normal distribution of route types. This makes his overall YAC on non-screens all the more impressive because we know he’s not running an excess of routes that lead to exaggerated YAC totals.

- As many have surmised via his tape, nearly 44% of Mike Evans’ catches are from coming back to the QB. Whether that’s on a scramble drill or designed route, that high number of comebacks takes away from his experience running sharp-breaking routes like square outs. Although we must consider Evans’ high YAC as a positive sign despite catching so many comebacks.

- Most interesting here is Benjamin and FSU’s utilization of the go route to take advantage of his height mismatch, nearly doubling the average for that specific type of route.

- Nearly 43% of Marqise Lee’s receptions came on short breaking in/out routes designed to put him in a position to gain yardage after the catch. I’m personally a bit surprised by the lack of post/corner/slants that have seemed to factor more heavily into USC’s past offenses.

How Are Their Hands?

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play. I won’t provide any commentary since it’s pretty self-explanatory.

 

So much of a WR’s numbers depend on the quarterback, so we can’t always use stats as effectively as we do for other positions. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in them. Whether you use them to identify problems with a prospect’s hands or examine a WR’s YAC in depth, there is merit if you understand their potential and limitations. That’s all I have for now. I’ll answer any questions and tweet out additional info I have on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

 

[Ricky D]

I hope ATL doesn't trade further down. I personally want Barr. We have a habit of trading down with our current GM (I like his decision making for the most part, Julio Jones, Tony G 

) Last year, I think we could've still grabbed Trufant in the 1st without giving up a 3rd and 6th rd pick.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

 

Barr is a 3-4 OLB to me I feel like at any other position you're wasting some of his abilities

Kiper made a good point about that though. A great player will adapt to whatever system that he's put in, and Barr is a smart guy.

he is not the best at coverage I don't see him playing well in a 4-3.

I mean he's not terrible in coverage. But it's definitely a weakness right now, though I think it could be made stronger.

 

[do work son]

Can't read the text on mobile right now, but is fraij telling me Mike Evans is the best wr coming out?

 

[SneakerProSr.]

Can't read the text on mobile right now, but is fraij telling me Mike Evans is the best wr coming out?

I don't know about yall that but if he runs sub 4.5 he's going top 10.

 

[buc em]

Well he damn sure isn't running a sub 4.5.

 

[Ricky D]

I think he is more of a TE prospect at the next level, I watched a few A&M games, he looks slow as hell but I doubt he blocks well enough to be TE.

 

[hzt50bgh]

I would be so happy if the Cowboys got Ha Ha to be our FS

 

[bonafide hustla]

idk bout best WR coming out...

but even if he's pretty slow, his acceleration must be high, because he definitely gets separation. can't substitute what you watch in game for any combine stats or any of that. his 40 time wont matter a bunch unless its like something CRAAAAZY slow

 

[herbshuttles15]

I think he can play the Jimmy Graham role but I don't know if he moves as well as him.

 

[kevi]

kiper is an idiot

 

[Ricky D]

Whoever drafts will need a speedy WR opposide of him in order for him to be truly effective IMO. Then again, I don't think Jerry Rice was considered fast (4.71 40 time)

 

[herbshuttles15]

Whoever drafts will need a speedy WR opposide of him in order for him to be truly effective IMO. Then again, I don't think Jerry Rice was considered fast (4.71 40 time)

But Rice was quick, fluid and probably the greatest route runner ever.

Being a good route runner can buy you years in the NFL.

 

[buc em]

Evans is a beast I love the dude but this draft is so loaded for receivers and a lot of them are going to light up the combine with ridiculous numbers. Too hard to peg where anybody might end up.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

Evans is a beast I love the dude but this draft is so loaded for receivers and a lot of them are going to light up the combine with ridiculous numbers. Too hard to peg where anybody might end up.

$20 bet he runs a sub 4.5 either at his pro day or the combine.