2013-2014 NBA Thread - IND @ WAS and OKC @ LAC on ESPN

[nolo33]

Everyone saying that Melo will be dumb if he resigns with the Knicks really don't know that the Knicks are probably his best option.

He signs with the Lakers it'll just be him and an aging kobe and a depleted roster.

The Bulls would be his best option if Rose can stay healthy, but that's a big IF...if Rose doesn't pan out then he'll be stuck in Chicago with not enough weapons to contend with the Heat or Pacers.

If he stays with the Knicks, he'll get his 130 and yes they going to suck again next season but next season is the final years of Amare, Chandler, and Bargnani's contracts. So Melo could pull the Wade and recruit some help in the summer of 15'.

They'll also have felton and jr on there final year of their contract that following season so you could trade them off to teams looking for expiring contracts.

 

[IATT]

^ dont the bulls still own their 1st round pick this year?

and the knicks traded theirs, right?

 

[antidope]

Nah I agree, that franchise was in disarray.


I like Wall, one of my favorite players to watch, wanted him as a Net and hoped we were gonna win that lottery.


I think dude has potential to be a very good PG, maybe Elite / top 5

Wall is top 5 right now. You can't name 5 pg's currently playing that are better than him. Chris Paul and Curry (even though he sucks on defense) are the only PG's clearly better than him right now. Drose doesn't count because he isn't healthy. Westbrook and Tony Parker have a case. John Wall is the best PG in the East and only getting better.

Lawson? Lowry? Lillard? Conley?(SHOUT OUT TO BHZ)

Not saying they are better, just throwing some names into the fray. PG is honestly the hardest position to rank

I was wrong about John Wall and have admitted it several times, the guy has the juice.

Was this really a big deal? I fell asleep on the Heat game, did they talk about it or something?

Not that I can remember, but I was watching the local Clippers broadcast, not ESPN. Yeah, LeBron guarded multiple positions, but its not like it was a dominating defensive performance. Blake had 43 and the Clippers as a team had 110, which is pretty remarkable when you consider everyone but Blake and Crawford were shooting like @#$%.

Why is this becoming a huge deal all of a sudden?

jjs07 I hope you guys do make noise in the playoffs, I was totally wrong about that team and John Wall for that matter.

Nah I agree, that franchise was in disarray.


I like Wall, one of my favorite players to watch, wanted him as a Net and hoped we were gonna win that lottery.


I think dude has potential to be a very good PG, maybe Elite / top 5

Wall is top 5 right now. You can't name 5 pg's currently playing that are better than him. Chris Paul and Curry (even though he sucks on defense) are the only PG's clearly better than him right now. Drose doesn't count because he isn't healthy. Westbrook and Tony Parker have a case. John Wall is the best PG in the East and only getting better.

Lawson? Lowry? Lillard? Conley?(SHOUT OUT TO BHZ)

Not saying they are better, just throwing some names into the fray. PG is honestly the hardest position to rank

I was wrong about John Wall and have admitted it several times, the guy has the juice.

I'll go scour the 2013 thread for the posts where I said similar things if need be.

 

[victor page]

Melo turns 30 in a few months.

He's realistically got another 3-4 years at playing at an elite level. I seriously doubt there's another team out there besides the Knicks that would give him the max. Where exactly is the grass greener for Melo where he's still a #1 option? He either takes less and plays for a better team...or he gets his money from New York. 

 

[calibeebee]

My boy Lillard! Get that Nike money my child! Save those knees and get paid!

 

[victor page]

My boy Lillard! Get that Nike money my child! Save those knees and get paid!

Just like they saved Brandon Roy's knees.

 

[jjs07]

Everyone saying that Melo will be dumb if he resigns with the Knicks really don't know that the Knicks are probably his best option.

He signs with the Lakers it'll just be him and an aging kobe and a depleted roster.

The Bulls would be his best option if Rose can stay healthy, but that's a big IF...if Rose doesn't pan out then he'll be stuck in Chicago with not enough weapons to contend with the Heat or Pacers.

If he stays with the Knicks, he'll get his 130 and yes they going to suck again next season but next season is the final years of Amare, Chandler, and Bargnani's contracts. So Melo could pull the Wade and recruit some help in the summer of 15'.
They'll also have felton and jr on there final year of their contract that following season so you could trade them off to teams looking for expiring contracts.

A lot of ifs...

Who exactly is Melo going to lure to New York? He's going to be 31 by the time the Knicks have ANY cap flexibility.

Yes, people realize that he can get top dollar by staying as a Knick. Also, people realize that this terrible situation has a lot to do with him. There is as much dysfunction surrounding this team right now than there was arguably during the Zeke run. It's really bad. I mean, you can just see it on Melo's face. **** is wearing on him.

With the way things are going, there isn't going to be a shift in the balance of powers in the East. As long as Lebron is in Miami, he'll be able to lure whoever he wants to play with him there (assuming he resigns). Indy has a great young nucleus, that SHOULD win a ECF at some point. You'd also have to figure that once the Bulls re-tool and bring back a healthy D-Rose, they'll be in contention for that 3 seed. Then, you have up and coming teams like Toronto and Washington.

Melo will be 30 in a matter of months. Time is ticking for him and I'm sure that he'd love to get a ring before it's all said and done. It's going to be the difference between him being this generation's Bernard King/Lee Nailon (jk, bout Nailon), and CEMENTING his place in the HOF amongst everyone else who has a title under their belt.

My guess is that he'll leave NY this offseason, Where, I don't know. I saw a scenario the other day that said if the Big 3 all took pay cuts (something around 14 mil each), there's a realistic way for them to afford Melo. Not to mention, the tax breaks you get while living in Florida.

This is going to be an interesting offseason. There is NO loyalty in the NBA. Please don't sit there an believe that it's 100% certain that Melo is going to stay.

 

[victor page]

I can't see Melo laming out and playing for Miami.

 

[herbshuttles15]

...

 

[proshares]

The frustration he's gotta be feeling now with this team, Woody and Dolan...I have no clue which way he'll lean. I don't think he'll take less to go to Miami, I agree with that. I could see him taking less if the situation arises, which I don't see either.

 

[antidope]

I don't see LeBron taking that huge of a paycut either. He's earned his big money and deserves to get it.

 

[Bert.]

My boy Lillard! Get that Nike money my child! Save those knees and get paid!

Just like they saved Brandon Roy's knees.

he had no knees to begin with tho

 

[kevlar shrimp]

 
Melo will be dumb if he resigns with the Knicks

The Bulls would be his best option

The Bulls are currently better than the Knicks

Melo doesn't seem like a hard worker so he might not mesh with Thibs

But if he's committed, he has a chance at winning a chip

Rose - Melo - Noah 

 

 

[dman14]

 
Melo will be dumb if he resigns with the Knicks
The Bulls would be his best option

The Bulls are currently better than the Knicks
Melo doesn't seem like a hard worker so he might not mesh with Thibs
But if he's committed, he has a chance at winning a chip

Rose - Melo - Noah 
 

what's the bulls cap situation?
bulls havent landed a top free agent in forever. that'd be a pretty solid situation. there is no reason for melo to return to that dysfunctional organization if it is about winning.

 

[proshares]

Deadline aftermath for NBA's worst.

Spoiler

he NBA trade deadline has come and gone, and several teams in our Tank Rank bottom 10 shook things up. How will the moves (and non-moves) affect the standings going forward?

Here's our weekly look at where the 10 worst teams in the NBA stand in their quest for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

1. Milwaukee Bucks | Status: Tanking | Record: 10-45 (1-2 past week)


The Bucks moved two veterans -- Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour -- in one deal at Thursday's trade deadline in return for Ramon Sessions and Jeff Adrien. The move won't likely have a major effect on the team's record going forward. Neal and Ridnour weren't making major contributions, and Sessions and Adrien actually add some toughness that the team has lacked.

(Last week: 1 )

2. Philadelphia 76ers | Status: Tanking | Record: 15-41 (0-2)


The Sixers, in the midst of a 10-game losing streak, added more fuel to the tanking fire last week when they traded away two of their top four scorers, Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes, for four second-round picks. Yes, they also received Danny Granger's expiring contract, Earl Clark, Eric Maynor and Byron Mullens in the deals. But even Sixers PR called it for what it was. "Sixers acquire Two Second Picks in 2014 from the Cavaliers" read the email headline for a trade that netted Clark. "Sixers Acquire Two Future Second Picks as Part of a Three-Team trade" for a deal that brought them Maynor.

I'll be shocked if the Sixers make it to 18 wins this season. They're the only team left that has a real shot at catching the Bucks.

(Last week: 2 )

3. Orlando Magic | Status: Tanking | Record: 17-41 (1-3)


The Magic didn't end up trading Arron Afflalo. Jameer Nelson didn't go anywhere either. Both players are likely to find new homes this summer, but for now, the only major move the Magic made was buying out Glen Davis. He played 30 minutes and averaged 12 points and six rebounds a game for the Magic this season, but overall, the impact of his departure should be pretty limited. Orlando should be in the top three here for the rest of the season.

(Last week: 3 )

4. Boston Celtics | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 19-38 (0-3)


Just about everyone on the Celtics' roster was mentioned in one trade rumor or another, but Boston stood pat with a roster that is bad enough to get a top-five pick and flexible enough to go either direction this summer.

(Last week: 4 )

5. Los Angeles Lakers | Status: Tanking | Record: 19-37 (1-2)


The Lakers dumped Steve Blake to save some money on their luxury-tax bill but couldn't make larger deals for Chris Kaman and Jordan Hill, despite talks that lasted right down to the deadline. The team did pick up two young players, Kent Bazemore and MarShon Brooks. Both will get minutes and opportunities in L.A., as evidenced by the combined 53 points they've scored in their two games with the Lakers.

(Last week: 5 )

6. Utah Jazz | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 19-36 (0-3)


The Jazz had several interesting offers for Marvin Williams at the trade deadline, but the team values him enough that it rejected one or two for a late first-round pick in hopes of bringing Williams back to the team next season. The Jazz continue to be a team with enough talent to beat anyone on a given night and will likely fluctuate on this list for the rest of the season.

(Last week: 8 )

7. Sacramento Kings | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 20-36 (2-1)


The Kings traded Marcus Thornton for Jason Terry and Reggie Evans, but that deal will do little to affect their win-loss record the rest of the season. It was a salary dump for the Kings. Sacramento also had something cooking that would have netted it Jarrett Jack for Jason Thompson, but the Cavs couldn't find a third party to take on Thompson's contract. For a team trying to make a bigger splash at the deadline, the Kings' haul was a little disappointing.

(Last week: 6 )

8. Cleveland Cavaliers | Status: Trying | Record: 22-35 (2-2)


The Cavs had virtually everyone other than Kyrie Irving on the trade block last week. They had fairly robust talks for Luol Deng and Jack but ended up making a fairly small deal for Hawes that sent Clark and two second-rounders to Philly. Hawes is a credible backup to Anderson Varejao and is yet another big man who can stretch the floor. While he won't have a major impact, he should help the Cavs' final push to make the playoffs.

(Last week: 7 )

9. Detroit Pistons | Status: Trying | Record: 23-33 (1-3)


The Pistons stood pat at the deadline, despite the fact that they looked doomed to another season in the lottery. They made a serious push to find a new home for Josh Smith, but given his sizable contract, the Pistons couldn't get any buyers.

Meanwhile, with two straight losses to the Bobcats since the All-Star break, Detroit's chances of making the playoffs have fallen to 12.8 percent, according to John Hollinger's Playoff Odds. Given that the Pistons will likely be sending their pick to the Bobcats, there's no reward for being on this list unless they start losing a lot in the next two months.

(Last week: 9 )

10. New Orleans Pelicans | Status: Trying | Record: 23-32 (0-3)


The Pelicans moved to a zero percent chance of making the playoffs this week according to the Playoff Odds. Like the Pistons, they aren't likely to keep their pick if they don't bottom out. (New Orleans' pick heads to Philly unless it's inside the top five.) The Pelicans tried hard to move Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans at the deadline but couldn't find a suitor for either player.

(Last week: N/A )

KEY
Tanking: The team's front office has deliberately weakened the team in an attempt to lose as many games as possible.

Tank-building: The space that lies somewhere between the ideas of tanking and rebuilding.

Rebuilding: The team's front office didn't go out of its way to sign or trade for quality players this summer, but it was less an attempt to lose games than it was an opportunity to give young players already on the roster a chance to prove themselves.

Trying: The team's front office went out of its way over the summer to strengthen the roster in an attempt to make the playoffs. The team just isn't very good.

What are second-rounders worth?

Spoiler

Pop quiz. What do the following players have in common? Marc Gasol. Manu Ginobili. Paul Millsap. Monta Ellis. DeAndre Jordan. Lance Stephenson. Luis Scola. Chandler Parsons. Carlos Boozer. Rashard Lewis.

If you guessed "second-round draft picks," you're a sharp NBA observer (or just really attentive to column headlines).

Believe it or not, you can find some serious talent in the second round. There's the reigning Defensive Player of the Year (Gasol), a future Hall of Famer (Ginobili), a collection of All-Stars (Millsap, Ellis, Boozer and Lewis) and key cogs to championship contenders (Jordan, Stephenson, Scola and Parsons). And that's before we get to really solid players like Goran Dragic, Lou Williams, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat, Kyle Korver, Nikola Pekovic and Isaiah Thomas. All of that talent was taken in the second round.

This makes Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie a mad genius, right? At Thursday's trade deadline, the first-year GM continued to raze the 76ers' roster, dumping impending free agents Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes in exchange for second-round picks, among other things. All told, Hinkie has accumulated five second-rounders in the 2014 draft and a couple of extras down the road.

Is this a case of a mastermind exploiting a market inefficiency? Are second-rounders really that valuable? What in the name of Dr. J is going on in Philadelphia?

As in most cases, it's complicated.

The historical value of second-rounders

What I didn't tell you at the top was that 32 percent of all second-round picks never even play in the NBA. Not a minute. This is one of the many discoveries of the NBA DRAFT Initiative study that I published at Insider in 2009, which I've dusted off and updated this season. From Pervis Ellison to Janis Timma, I've analyzed all 1,442 picks who have been selected since 1989, the first year the draft shrunk from three rounds to the current setup of two.

76ERS' 2014 PICKS
*If season ended today

Overall pick Acquired
2 own
11 via Pelicans
32 own
39 via Cavs
45 via Nets
50 via Grizzlies
55 via Rockets
What else do we find after putting the draft under the microscope? Yes, it's true: Second-round picks are essentially a crapshoot. About one-third don't even play in the NBA. And even if they manage to slip on an NBA uniform, most burn out before lasting three seasons. Of the 603 second-rounders picked between 1989 and 2009, just 246 of them made it to Year 3.

Take, for instance, the 2010 draft class. Stephenson has developed into an All-Star candidate after being drafted in the second round in 2010. Success! Not quite. Just four of the 30 second-rounders from 2010 are still playing in the NBA: Stephenson, Utah backup big man Jeremy Evans, Toronto Raptors reserve Landry Fields and Jarvis Varnado, who is on a 10-day contract with the Chicago Bulls. The 26 others have either flamed out (like Dexter Pittman and Andy Rautins) or never got to light the wick in the first place (like Nemanja Bjelica and Tiny Gallon).

We can dig deeper. Using John Hollinger's Estimated Wins Added metric -- which is player efficiency rating translated to wins produced by taking into account minutes played -- we can examine the value of second-rounders compared to, say, late first-rounders.

PICK VALUE SINCE 2005
Picks Tot. EWA AVG EWA
26-30 246.4 0.8
31-35 153.4 0.5
Looking back to 2005 when the draft expanded to 60 picks because of the addition of the Charlotte Bobcats, we find that the final five picks of the first round (Nos. 26 to 30) have substantially outperformed the first five picks of the second round (Nos. 31 to 35). The late first-rounders have yielded 246.4 wins over that time, an average annual EWA of 0.8 (think Darrell Arthur) whereas the early second-rounders have contributed just 153.4 wins, an average annual EWA of 0.5 (think Steve Novak). What this means is that late first-rounders have produced nearly 100 more wins than the second-rounders picked right after them.

Second-rounders don't look like such a great bet now, huh? With all this information in mind, can we say Hinkie is a fool for hunting for second-rounders like they were basketball bitcoins?

Ah, but this analysis goes only so far because the new collective bargaining agreement has changed the game.

Second-round pick as currency

The CBA, ratified in 2010, has altered the NBA market thanks to a luxury-tax system that crushes teams for crossing over a designated threshold. It used to be that teams were taxed dollar-for-dollar for going over the luxury-tax line. Spend $1 million over the luxury-tax threshold and spend an additional $1 million in tax payouts.

But now, teams are taxed $1.50 for every dollar up to $5 million over the luxury-tax line. And it gets worse from there. The tax rate balloons to $1.75 per dollar for the next $5 million, $2.50 for the next $5 million and so on. In the old CBA, the Nets would pay about $30 million in luxury-tax penalties this season, but under the new punitive system, they'll pay about three times as much. Mikhail Prokhorov's tax bill this season has nearly reached nine figures.

There's more. The new CBA also introduced the repeater tax guillotine, which starts taking effect next season. The repeater rate piles on an extra dollar to the tax rate (starting at $2.50 per dollar, not $1.50 per dollar) and is designed to dissuade big-market teams from bullying the rest of the league with their deep pockets. Starting in 2014-15, teams are forced to pay the repeater rate if they were taxpayers in three of the four previous seasons. It's a big deal.

So where do second-rounders come in? Good question. First-round picks are not only more expensive than second-rounders, but they also count against the cap regardless of whether they are signed. The key is that second-rounders, by rule, do not. So cost-conscious teams looking to preserve precious cap space in summer free-agent sweepstakes or looking to shave down their luxury-tax bill can still add talent to fill out the roster by unloading a first-round pick for a couple of second-rounders.


Michael Hickey/Getty Images
Luis Scola and Erik Murphy, right, are both second-rounders serving very different purposes.
A tax-flirting team like Chicago, which holds two late-first-round picks next season (Charlotte's first-rounder goes to Chicago if it doesn't fall in the top 10 via the Tyrus Thomas deal), could improve its flexibility by swapping a first-rounder with Hinkie for say, the No. 32 pick and the No. 39 pick. Same goes for Oklahoma City, a team that also holds two late-first-rounders in the 2014 draft. Though it doesn't seem like much in February, second-rounders could hold serious currency for capped-out teams come June.

Furthermore, second-rounders are far cheaper for tax purposes than picking up free agents off the scrap heap. As astutely pointed out by SB Nation's Mark Deeks, there's a reason why center Erik Murphy remains on the Bulls' roster even though he never plays: As a second-round pick, he is saving them about $1 million in luxury-tax penalties compared to a similar non-drafted rookie thanks to the fine print in the CBA. With a repeater tax on the horizon, CBA minutiae matters more now than ever.

What other teams could be shopping for second-round picks at the draft? Take a look at the 2014 draft slots for Brooklyn, New York, Golden State, New Orleans and Portland. As of today, they have none. And no one likes to miss out on a draft, especially if it's a deep draft such as 2014's class. Knowing this, Hinkie could be in a position of serious leverage come draft time when any of these five teams get itchy for a draft pick -- any draft pick.

Even if Hinkie swaps two picks for one to Chicago and then sells two second-rounders to pickless teams, he still has one second-rounder left over to use for himself. In this scenario, the 76ers would have three first-rounders (they already have two thanks to New Orleans) in what's considered the most loaded draft in years.

'Together we build'

Ever since taking over GM duties this summer, Hinkie has been all about the long play, laying down building blocks for sustainable success. It's no coincidence that the Sixers' slogan this season is "Together we build." Ten years ago, trading two starters in exchange for scraps and a bunch of second-round picks would have seemed like something a GM would do if he was deliberately trying to get canned. But the equation is a little more complicated in 2014 because of a complicated CBA.

Hinkie obviously is building something in his workshop, but we probably won't know what it is for years to come. As Oklahoma City has shown us, patience is a necessary ingredient to team building but hard to come by in the microwave society in 2014.

To be sure, it's entirely possible Hinkie's efforts might still fall flat. As the DRAFT Initiative study illustrated, second-round picks aren't a reliable venture considering most of them barely even play in the league. For every Ginobili, there are 50 Tiny Gallons. But for Philly, it's not necessarily about the players; rather, it's about accumulating assets. And it could be, as a few execs around the league have theorized, that Hinkie's monopoly of the second round is more a reflection of the market for first-rounders drying up than it is about second-rounders being a golden asset.

But if you're wondering what the 76ers are doing in February, the truth is we might not know until June.

 

[krazy88s]

I'm coming home. I'm coming home. Tell the world I'm coming home.

 

[dman14]

I'm coming home. I'm coming home. Tell the world I'm coming home.

so...he gonna be a wiz?

 

[antidope]

 
Melo will be dumb if he resigns with the Knicks
The Bulls would be his best option

The Bulls are currently better than the Knicks
Melo doesn't seem like a hard worker so he might not mesh with Thibs
But if he's committed, he has a chance at winning a chip

Rose - Melo - Noah 
 

This season has spoken to the contrary though. That guys out there giving it everything he has for a team that has no chance to win everything. The rebounding numbers are the most telling stat when it comes to his effort

 

[jjs07]

There is enough veteran leadership on the Bulls with their players and also with Thibs' no-nonsense approach, that no one will tolerate a half-***** effort on defense. I think Melo in Chicago COULD work. Let's be honest, their overall team defense was good enough to hide some of Boozer's inadequacies, so I don't see any reason why Melo wouldn't work out if he played there.

 

[coldcity]

Let's be honest, their overall team defense was good enough to hide some of Boozer's inadequacies, so I don't see any reason why Melo wouldn't work out if he played there.

+1

 

[victor page]

 

[awwsome]

Don't trust Rose knee's going forward, Melo really doesn't have any great options in this offseason, every location has drawbacks.

Chi - Rose situation
LA - Terrible roster/cap situation going forward/bad ownership
NY - See LA

 

[Bert.]

[thread="571782"]Why are people talking about Rose as if the past 2 years didn't just happen?[/thread]

because hes still young and a good player?

its just bad luck

he will be fine

no idea if he will be back at the superstar level he was at but he will def still be a good player

 

[kevlar shrimp]

This season has spoken to the contrary though. That guys out there giving it everything he has for a team that has no chance to win everything. The rebounding numbers are the most telling stat when it comes to his effort

When he does it for more than a season I'll believe him.

Thibs is the type of coach that will make you hate playing ball

what's the bulls cap situation?

on the books for 60+ mill 

but if Boozer gets amnestied that frees up at least 16 mill

 

[proshares]

You can't say Rose will definitely be anything at this point. All you're working on is your own opinion and assumptions, not facts.