2013-2014 NBA Thread - IND @ WAS and OKC @ LAC on ESPN

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Is Chris Paul Somehow Underrated?

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There's a neat narrative in the NBA today (which we help perpetuate) that LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the best players in the league by a mile, each season a clash between two great legacies in the making. But how true is this, really?

Below are the league's top players, based on three popular, comprehensive stats—the closely related wins shares and wins produced per 48, plus PER—and two metrics—Real Plus/Minus and Expected Point Value Added—that ESPN introduced this year to much fanfare.
 
  • Win shares per 48: 1. Kevin Durant (.295), 2. Chris Paul (.270), 3. LeBron James (.264)
  • Wins produced per 48: 1. Paul (.335), 2. Andre Drummond (.331), 3. James (.327), 4. DeAndre Jordan (.323), 5. Durant (.308)
  • PER (Hollinger): 1. Durant (29.9), 2. James (29.4), 3. Kevin Love (27.0), 4. Anthony Davis (26.5), 5. Boogie Cousins (26.2), 6. Paul (26.0)
  • Real Plus/Minus: 1. James (8.56), 2. Paul (7.28), 3. Andre Iguodala (6.95), 4. Durant (6.53)
  • Expected Point Value Added (2012-13): 1. Paul (3.48), 2. Dirk Nowitzki (2.60) 3. Deron Williams (2.52)
These stats are not without their weaknesses, and I wouldn't point to any of them to individually argue for any player. Taken together, though, they tell you two things: 1) If you make a new stat—and that stat involves even a slightly non-traditional definition of what it means to be "good"—there's a decent chance you'll find Chris Paul's name somewhere near the top of the list; 2) Paul deserves to be at least somewhere in the best-player conversation, if only because he makes you wonder what the use is of having the conversation in the first place.
 
You can pretty readily see why he isn't there. The last decade-and-change of pro basketball has unfolded in the shadow of Michael Jordan and what's come to be known as "hero ball." The best player in basketball, according to the precepts of the hero-ball era, is the player who takes and makes the biggest shots: Jordan dropping 49 and 63 on the Celtics in his first two playoff games, in 1986; LeBron scoring 48 points—including 29 of the Cavs' final 30—in a double-overtime victory over the Pistons in 2007. The best player is surely versatile and unselfish, but what separates him from the rest is his ability to score, to turn his team's offense into an expression of his will. Close your eyes and think of this kind of player. Chances are you're imagining someone who looks a lot more like Michael Jordan than he does Chris Paul.

That's because Paul, a point guard, doesn't really play hero ball. (He can when needed: With the Clippers down 97-86 with seven minutes to play in their playoff opener against the Warriors, Paul scored 10 of Los Angeles's next 16 points to tie the game at 102.) He's never scored more than 43 points in a game—LeBron and Durant have pulled off the feat a combined 46 times—or more than 35 points in a playoff game, which Durant and LeBron have managed 31 times. Paul can't easily be extricated from a team context, since what he does best of all—and perhaps as well as anyone ever to play the position—is initiate an effective interaction with a teammate. Reconciling the value of such broad effectiveness with individual brilliance is something even the most forward-minded basketball heads still struggle with, especially for a player like Paul, who alternates between the two at will.

As our own Tom Scocca wrote a couple years ago, "Basketball wants heroes, not effective interactions." The sport has yet to coalesce around a single, kitchen-sink stat the way baseball has coalesced around WAR, in part because there are as many different ideas about how to weight those interactions as there are analysts to run the regressions. Those five stats I mention above reflect five different attempts, and Paul's presence at the top of four of them suggests that they're telling a story about "best"ness that's at odds with the one basketball has been telling for more than 20 years.
this article acts like its a narrative that leads people to believe guards that play "hero ball" (using this phrase from the article) are always going to be the best in the league 
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its not because of some media conspiracy, its because these "hero ball" dudes are the ones winning championships year after year. while pure pgs sit at home watching the finals on their tvs.

the guy really brought up chris paul's game 1 choke job as an example of how he can play hero ball 
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if we're talking positional value, the point guard is by far the least important role in basketball. if a guy as big as kobe/mj/lebron/kd can bring the ball up the floor and run the offence why the hell would i need some carlton banks shaped dude holding the ball for my team?

no point in wasting cap space and giving a point guard a max contract. tony parker has never averaged over 8 apg, heat and laker teams have won a lot of championships with derick fisher and mario chalmers as their pointguards. watch the current spurs offense, or the lakers/bulls triangle offense, or miami's offense. all these great teams won because of ball movement, 5 guys passing the ball around finding eachother open looks and if needed one guy is there as a fall back to create for himself if the offense breaks down.

the spurs or triangle offense creates more easy looks for players than chris paul or steve nash could ever dream of, there really is no need for a well run team to have an elite pg. just a huge waste of cap space.

top 5 pg debates are pretty pointless, you're not going to win a championship building around a pg regardless of who you pick
 
Stockton and Kidd turned it around and got a 3 ball eventually. I assume Rubio will follow suit.
 
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Stockton and Kidd turned it around and got a 3 ball eventually. I assume Rubio will follow suit.

Neither of them were as bad as Rubio and neither of them were playing pro ball since 16.


Habits are very real, idk if he'll ever get better, when he probably does he'll have a lost a step.
 
I can't stand Chris Paul. Never was a fan of Rubio. Wall took a big step forward. I'm still rolling with Tony Parker, Rondo and Curry. I don't really consider Russell a PG but he's also high on my list.
 
Kidds first 4 years.....

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Stockton's first 4 years......

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Good point on him being a pro at 16, but he never really played big minutes like that and European PGs dont really shoot like that.

Yea i'll stay on the Rubio train.

So you're just ignoring the fact Stockon shot 50% overall over those first four seasons and Rubio right now is shooting 36%? :lol:

Stop it dude, Rubio can't shoot..inside or outside the 3 point line.
 
Playing for a while? He played 180 games in 3 years.

And you're ignoring the fact that Kidd became one of the greatest 3pt shooters ever.
 
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So you're just ignoring the fact Stockon shot 50% overall over those first four seasons and Rubio right now is shooting 36%? :lol:

Stop it dude, Rubio can't shoot..inside or outside the 3 point line.

That's what I'm saying. :lol:


Rubio is a historic bad shooter as a guard, not just bad.

I can only see him maybe becoming average, he's already been playing for a while and I don't see him changing his game unless his athleticism starts to fade.

Still an elite passer and I like his defense but his shooting especially in today's NBA isn't going to cut it.
 
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