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[h3]NFL - Why San Francisco 49ers will be better than expected 2016 season, Chip Kelly, Blaine Gabbert, Carlos Hyde[/h3]
by John Clayton on 2016-09-15 06:01:00 UTC
The numbers appear to be working against the San Francisco 49ers.
Many preseason power rankings polls, including ESPN's, have them as the NFL's worst team, ranking below the rebuilding Cleveland Browns. In my ranking of the blue-chip players across the league, I have the 49ers with just three: linebacker NaVorro Bowman, offensive tackle Joe Staley and safety Eric Reid.
The 49ers finished 5-11 last season with one-and-done coach Jim Tomsula. The numbers might point to a possible 3-13 season and the first pick in the 2017 draft.
Don't be misled, though. Despite playing the league's toughest schedule, the 49ers will be better than many think, even if they don't eclipse the five wins from 2015. They are building a solid foundation, even as they go through a rebuild. New coach Chip Kelly has some interesting pieces with which to work.
It's not out of the question that the number of blue-chip players could at least double by next season. The franchise took a big dip after it parted ways with coach Jim Harbaugh, but the turnaround might not be as long as traditional rebuilding projects.
Here are eight reasons why:
[h2]1. Rising talent across the roster[/h2]
From 2011 through 2013, the 49ers were loaded with talent.
"I think there were 17 or 18 guys who were acknowledged as Pro Bowl or All-Pro," general manager Trent Baalke said. "There was a lot of age to that group. At that time we were one of the oldest teams."
Father Time caught up with the roster, but now the team is working with a fresh clock. The 49ers averaged 11 draft choices a year since 2013, and several are on the verge of being solid players. Reid, Carlos Hyde, Jimmie Ward,Aaron Lynch, Trent Brown, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Quinton Dial and Tank Carradine are a few of the players who could develop into above-average starters.
"Now we are one of the youngest teams," Baalke said.
If youth is served, the 49ers could make a decent jump.
[h2]2. Blossoming offensive line[/h2]
The offensive line isn't completely under the radar, but it is becoming one of the strengths. Baalke maintains the successful formula the organization used in building a Super Bowl-caliber team. Former 49ers coach Mike Nolan and general manager Scot McCloughan believed in drafting big, athletic offensive linemen.
"That hasn't changed," Baalke said. "Big guys beat up little guys."
The 49ers' offensive line might be better than even the team envisioned. Staley is a Pro Bowl staple. The 49ers lostAlex Boone in free agency but filled his left guard spot with Zane Beadles. Daniel Kilgore is serviceable at center.
What the 49ers didn't envision is the rapid development of Brown, a 6-foot-8, 355-pounder who will start at right tackle. Anthony Davis, the previous right tackle, came back from retirement with an attitude. He lost 40 pounds from the offseason and has been moved to right guard. Second-round pick Joshua Garnett is getting some first-team reps at left guard and could move into the starting lineup during the season.
It might take most of the season for the line to come together, but by next year the 49ers could have one of the best young units.
[h2]3. Gabbert was much improved in 2015[/h2]
Quarterback is a big question. Blaine Gabbert is expected to be named the starter soon. While he might not be as talented as Colin Kaepernick, he has tried to be more popular with his teammates, and they seem to respect him. Kaepernick has a tendency to be a loner. Gabbert has made it a point to be friendly with his teammates and create a bond.
"The better the relationship you have with your teammates and coaching staff, the more fun it's going to be," Gabbert said. "Guys are going to go to bat for you. These guys are all my friends. I hang out with them every day. Whether it was in high school or in college, I always felt it about building relationships. We're just a bunch of buddies hanging out."
But Gabbert needs to produce on the field for the 49ers to succeed. Though they will rely on the running game, Gabbert must keep his turnovers down and be efficient. He completed 63 percent of his passes last season with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. If he can keep up that pace for a full season, Kelly would be happy. Gabbert is still just 26. He looks nothing like the QB who flamed out in Jacksonville.
[h2]4. Improved, healthy running game[/h2]
Hyde should be primed for a big season. He is playing well behind the improved offensive line in the preseason, and he has recovered from the foot injury that limited him to seven games last season. It doesn't hurt that Kelly's fast-paced offense will heavily feature the run.
Hyde has 85 yards on 15 carries and has three 15-plus-yard runs. Backup Mike Davis is averaging 7.9 yards per carry.
"Carlos Hyde is a stud," Gabbert said. "He should have a great season."
[h2]5. Two studs at defensive end[/h2]
Like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who rebuilt the defensive line with Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt, the 49ers could go one step better with 6-foot-7 defensive ends Buckner and Armstead. It just might take until next year for the line to come together. Armstead is fighting a shoulder injury that might require surgery after the season, so he might not be 100 percent through this season. Most scouts around the league are 100 percent behind Buckner, who drew Calais Campbell-type grades heading into the draft.
Dial is a decent nose tackle, and the 49ers are getting Glenn Dorsey back from last year's knee injury, giving them a veteran presence. Mike Purcell is a solid 3-4 D-lineman, and the team might have hit on a sleeper fifth-round pick in Ronald Blair, who is decent as a three-technique. He'll see time in the nickel defense.
[h2]6. A leader at linebacker[/h2]
The linebacking corps isn't nearly as good as when Bowman and Patrick Willis patrolled the middle of the field, but Kelly has versatility and athleticism on the defense. Bowman, who just received a big contract extension, is the leader.
"We have a lot of versatility at linebacker," Baalke said. "Certainly, it's a talented group that has a lot of high picks in that group. Tank Carradine, Eli Harold, Aaron Lynch and others give us a lot of versatility."
The 49ers had only 28 sacks last year, and no defender has more than than 6.5. Carradine, who didn't distinguish himself along the defensive line, looks better at outside linebacker. Lynch misses the first four games because of a suspension. Harold and veteran Ahmad Brooks are also options.
[h2]7. Emerging players in the secondary[/h2]
There aren't any stars in the secondary, but the 49ers are developing depth. Cornerbacks Tramaine Brock and Ward look better in this year's scheme. Reid and Bethea are solid at safety. The 49ers are developing young defenders such as cornerbacks Rashard Robinson, Will Redmond and Chris Davis, along with Jaquiski Tartt at safety.
"The cornerback group is young and competitive," Baalke said. "We feel real good about the safety position. We have a good mix of young guys and veterans on the defense."
[h2]8. Offense could help passing game[/h2]
The 49ers are thin for talent at wide receiver. There will be issues there. Torrey Smith is the only established quality receiver. The team had to trade for Jeremy Kerley for slot help and probably will be looking at the waiver wire for other help. Coming back from last season, the 49ers have only Smith, Quinton Patton and DeAndrew White at wide receiver, and they didn't exactly produce big numbers.
The hope is that Kelly's fast-paced offense catches defenses off guard. Kelly likes to run a play every 20 seconds, and Gabbert has felt natural with the pace. If he can avoid three-and-outs, the offense could average between 68 and 72 plays a game. With better receivers, that number could go into the mid- or high-70s.
As we look back at the Philadelphia Eagles, Kelly did get extra production from receivers who weren't as talented as DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin after they left.
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