Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[champcruthik]

Well, scratch Russell Martin off the list. He signs in Toronto.

And the Cards trade one of their starting pitchers for Jason Heyward. (presumably to replace Tavares)

Shelby's the centerpiece to ATL.

Cards adding J Heyward is a problem
Not sure if I'm disappointed we didn't sign Martin but thankful we didn't drop 80+ mill on him......WTH were the Jays thinking?

Vastly overpaid to help Stroman and Sanchez grow.

 

[CP1708]

It’s not all bad news, though, as McDaniel reiterates something he’s said before (and he tends to be right on these things): he hears the Cubs will blow their IFA budget next year once again, as they did last year when they brought in Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, Jen-Ho Tseng, and several other top prospects in the class. Although that would subject them to the new harshest penalty – the inability to sign any player for more than $300,000 for two years – no one is really sure what’s going to happen after the current CBA expires at the end of 2016. If you want a chance to blow out the budget (a strategy that pretty clearly brings in more talent than going year to year, assuming you really pony up), next year might be the last crack. In that way, the 2015/16 IFA period might look a lot like the 2011 draft, in which many teams spent wildly (including the Cubs) knowing that the 2012 CBA would probably change things.

So, I guess pencil in July 2, 2015 for some fun.

I like the sound of this.

We have all these prospects building up. Yet, Theo still spent a ton of money last year on 16-17-18 year olds to develop over the next 3-4 years. (when we will likely be good)

He can use those pieces either as filler to bolster the roster, or, trade bait if we need to add a vet somewhere.

Then, next summer, he spends more money on X amount of teens, again, and let's THAT crop grow behind the scenes, while we figure to be a pretty good team. In 3-4-5 years, we could have another influx of talent coming up and ready to contribute, or be traded.

WAVES of talent, rolling in.

Theo.

 

[meyer23]

Following all this is about 10000 times better than the "bleeping" Bears 

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Watching a game at Wrigley is on my list of places to visit before I die.

 

[meyer23]

Do it. I have a small list of Stadiums I want to visit before I bite the dust but it's easy to take Wrigley for granted since it's just a train ride away. Kind of looking forward to the renovations. 

 

[CP1708]

Following all this is about 10000 times better than the "bleeping" Bears 

You startin to buy in yet, or still a little nervous our past will rise again?

 

[meyer23]

You startin to buy in yet, or still a little nervous our past will rise again?

I know I came in here with less than stellar, more sarcastic attitude, and to that I apologize as some of it was directed as you due to not knowing you and your love for the team as well, it was nothing personal, just been a long time man.

But with that, I also appreciate all the post you put in here; I read them daily and it's refreshing. man. Sometimes I read and I think, "I sure hope this pans out and doesn't fall apart and we're back to square one" but it's hard to not believe after watching what Theo is doing. I'd be lying if I said I'm 100% on board but maybe because I don't want to leave myself vulnerable again 

But I'd also be lying if I said I wasn't optimistic and haven't felt this exciting for this team in a long time. Keep on posting, CP! 

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I'd be lying if I said I'm 100% on board but maybe because I don't want to leave myself vulnerable again 

I often tell my friends that being a die hard Chicago fan is like being in a relationships with an unfaithful woman........you love her to death, but she's always cheating on you, and you always find yourself praying that she stops her whoreish ways.

Looks like the Red Sox extended an offer to Lester, details aren't disclosed but I'm sure they offered more than the initial extension offer of 4/70 mill. Hopefully Theo and Co. made a big impression on Jon. He's scheduled to meet with the Braves tomorrow.

 

[CP1708]

No worries at all man, I have heard plenty of folks doubt this upcoming future.

Thing is, I am big on studying the how's and why's of things that work. For instance, I am insane about the NFL draft, where did I learn that, Jimmy Johnson's Dallas Cowboys. I watched that trade as a kid, and was amazed at all the talent Dallas got in like 3 years. As I got older, and Jimmy came to my Dolphins, I went back and studied what he pulled off.

Same here with Theo. Clearly he was an enormous success in Boston. But how, why? So I went digging around on what he did, and what he may or may not do here.

First he started selling off bad contracts, Z, Dempster, Soriano, etc. Getting our money straight.

It was clear, early, he had a couple nice young bats from the previous regime in Baez and Almora. in the minors. (and Castro at the big league level) So when he went out and got Rizzo (from Boston) and then signed Soler, you could see, right away, he was getting bats. Then Bryant, you knew he was building it then. Then the flips of marginal starters for more prospects, draft picks, INT slots, etc. Then Russell, then Schwarber.

At the same time, the SP class of this year and next was nice lookin, you could see Theo prepping to get in on that. All the money he saved from dealing the larger contracts, and not having to pay these young studs much.

At some point (if they stayed patient) we'd have both, influx of talented youth, AND money to spend to fill in the blanks. And hell, we still have a top 10 pick in June, and as posted above, looks like he will spend a ton in International signings next year, to completely load the minor league levels with as much talent as you can possibly want.

And then to get Maddon?

Theo's just mocking everyone now. Talent, money to spend, and coaches in place to work with it all. Everything we can ask for as a fanbase.

Doesn't mean we get automatic titles, or 3 like the Red Sox, but at least we all know we are being run properly, the right way, with lots of talent growing in the minors (something we have NEVER had) and not just throwing money at 34-35 year olds just cuz. Maybe we come up short. Maybe we will never win a title, ever. It's tough to do. But at least we can see, we are being run like a true MLB franchise, and not just a cash cow selling beers and afternoon baseball. That's all we can ask for. If we win, great. Our patience will have been rewarded. At least now, we have true reasons to believe, and not just hope.

 

[CP1708]

The word we’re supposed to use is “introduced”. As in, the Cubs introduced Joe Maddon on Monday as the team’s new manager. Really, Maddon’s a guy who needs no introduction, and in addition to that, Maddon isn’t a guy you bring in, as an organization, unless you feel like you’re on the verge of something. Maddon isn’t a guy you give five years and $25 million, as an organization, unless you feel like you’re entering a new era. The Cubs didn’t want to get rid of Rick Renteria, but at the same time, this wasn’t an opportunity they could let pass by. As was noted in the days prior to Monday’s press conference:

On Friday, Epstein said Maddon “may be as well-suited as anyone in the industry to manage the challenges that lie ahead of us.”

About those challenges — there are always challenges, for everyone, and there are certainly always challenges in Chicago, but the challenges that lie ahead now are quite different from the challenges that were ahead a few years back when the Cubs overhauled the front office. The idea now is that Maddon can help the team transition from loser to winner, and though that’s what all losers want, the Cubs are in a particular position. Maddon spent a chunk of his press conference talking about the 2015 playoffs. Theo Epstein, at the end of the regular season, also talked about the 2015 playoffs. The Cubs see Joe Maddon as the first step in a new level. The Cubs now intend to be serious about the present. So how far away are the Cubs from looking like a competitive team?


During the season, they won 73 games, which means they lost 89 games, which is too many games. Based on that, the Cubs are a ways away. On the other hand, the Cubs have moved from 61 wins to 66 to 73, so they’re trending in the right direction. Obviously, they’re trending in the right direction. Among those of you who aren’t Cubs fans, you probably know more about the Cubs’ group of young talent than you know about your own team’s collection. This isn’t some kind of secret.

We can examine the 2014 season, in which a handful of young Cubs got their feet wet. Entering the All-Star break, the team was 40-54, third-worst in the National League. Then after that, the roster rallied to go 33-35, which put them in the middle of the pack. The discouraging bit is that the Cubs’ second-half run differential was absolutely terrible, but the encouraging bit is that, in the first half, the Cubs ranked seventh in the NL in team WAR. In the second half, they ranked fifth. That despite having traded away both Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. The Cubs were a real baseball team down the stretch, and they won more than they lost between August and September.

Yet, while it’s fine to look back, it makes the most sense to look forward, and here we get to start playing with team projections. The World Series ended last week, which means we’re allowed to focus on the season ahead, and we’re already armed here with next-season Steamer projections. We’re also armed with updated team depth charts, and though there are millions of decisions that will get made between right now and opening day 2015, it’s possible to get an idea of where the Cubs stand as constructed.

I have no choice but to deal with overall team WAR. Based on projected team WAR, literally right now, the Nationals and the Dodgers stand out as the two most promising teams in the National League. At the other end, things are considerably more grim for the Padres, Phillies, and Reds. Then you’ve got the in-betweeners. Best among them are the Cardinals and Pirates. Worst among them are the Cubs, but the four teams ahead of them are within one single WAR, meaning they’re all effectively tied. Right now, the Cubs project similar to the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Mets, and Brewers.

It goes without saying that these are all estimates, and you can argue with depth charts or specific projections if you like. Eventually we’re going to fold ZiPS into this, to balance Steamer out, and projections are going to change. Very obviously, rosters are also going to change, some of them quite a lot! But you can see how the Cubs are within striking distance. You don’t have to be a great team to contend for one of the wild-card slots, and the Cubs are a splash away from looking like a .500 team. And the Cubs might not stop at one splash.

Because this is based on projections, this projection doesn’t require that the Cubs get a sudden player breakthrough. Javier Baez is projected for a .280 OBP. Jorge Soler‘s projected for 2.5 WAR. Jake Arrieta, probably, is better than his projection. It isn’t crazy to figure the Cubs at this moment are a mid- to high-70s win team, hence that note about the splash. And the Cubs have been linked to top-tier starting pitchers for what feels like the past several months.

Now, not a single thing is guaranteed. Lots of teams want the best starters, and there aren’t enough great starters available to go around. But it would be a disappointment if the Cubs didn’t land Jon Lester or Max Scherzer or even, say, James Shields. Failing that, they could swing a deal. It’s practically a given the Cubs will bring in an impact starting pitcher. They could also land another quality arm, and they might decide that they’re rather fond of Russell Martin. Andrew Friedman is also probably fond of Russell Martin, but if he’s under orders to cut payroll, that might be a difficult move to fold in.

A few years ago, according to Cot’s, the Cubs had an opening-day payroll of about $109 million. The next season, it held steady at $107 million, then last year it dropped to $93 million. It’s reasonable to expect next season’s Cubs to come in around $100 – 110 million, and based on my current estimates, a Cubs 25-man roster right now would be expected to cost something in the vicinity of $60 million. That goes down $5.5 million with a Travis Wood non-tender. It isn’t hard to see how the Cubs could have $40 million to spend. It isn’t hard to see how the Cubs could have $50 million to spend. This is why they’re expected to be so active. They have a roster that’s gotten good enough, they have a whole lot of money available, and many current and coming players are young and cost-controlled. Everything’s in order for the Cubs to get serious.

With one big addition, the Cubs look like an average team. With two big additions and a decent player here or there, the estimate could well push north of 85 wins, and that’s easily contention territory. Even looking like a .500 team could mean contention territory, given a little luck and given one or two young players stepping forward. I’m fully aware of how stupid it sounds to say the Cubs are two or three splashes away from resembling a good team. The same goes for most not-good teams, and some teams are good already. But the Cubs, unlike most not-good teams, are very well positioned to be extremely active in making upgrades, as they’re blessed with both roster and financial flexibility. It would be interesting if you put Jon Lester on the Twins, but Jon Lester’s not signing with the Twins. He could very well sign with the Cubs, and it could very well pay immediate dividends.

The Cubs, at present, are mediocre, with upside. It’s the upside you know so much about. Yet given a genuinely realistic offseason, the Cubs could be damn solid, with upside. The Cubs made something official with the hiring of Joe Maddon. They’re entering a whole new stage, and in this one they actually care about today.

Fangraphs has some projections, and they have Bryant at 29 homers, Rizzo at 28, Soler at 24, Castro and Russell at 12, Valbuena at 15, Castillo at 13, and I couldn't even find Baez

They expect us to be pretty good, I think 2016 is still the "bigger" year, with more seasoning, and an extra off-season to add yet another key starting pitcher.

But, 2015 is looking to be more competitive than the last 3-4 years.

 

[meyer23]

No worries at all man, I have heard plenty of folks doubt this upcoming future.
.....................................
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It was clear, early, he had a couple nice young bats from the previous regime in Baez and Almora. in the minors. (and Castro at the big league level) So when he went out and got Rizzo (from Boston) and then signed Soler, you could see, right away, he was getting bats. Then Bryant, you knew he was building it then. Then the flips of marginal starters for more prospects, draft picks, INT slots, etc. Then Russell, then Schwarber.
That's all we can ask for. If we win, great. Our patience will have been rewarded. At least now, we have true reasons to believe, and not just hope.

I love reading about the Cubs but I don't dig like that. That's some dedication, homie 

I always stop here too and read the new stuff you post and it really does sound appetizing and after watching the Maddon conference, I was pretty stoked. He was kind of the icing on this Cubs cake but I just can't quite let me guard down yet because they still do have some work to do. 

 

 

[CP1708]

CHICAGO -- After a day and night of courting by the Chicago Cubs, free-agent hurler Jon Lester is moving on, presumably to talk with the Atlanta Braves and possibly the St. Louis Cardinals, according to various reports.

The Cubs made their big pitch to the lefty pitcher on Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the situation. It was probably similar to the one they made last week to catcher Russell Martin that involved a tour of Wrigley Field under renovation, a presentation expressing the potential of the team’s future and then, dinner. The Cubs lost out on Martin to the Toronto Blue Jays and could lose out on Lester for similar reasons: They aren’t desperate enough to get into a bidding war.

Teams such as the Boston Red Sox and Cardinals are in a win-now mode, and if Lester wants to be assured of a return to the postseason in 2015, he’ll choose St. Louis or Boston before picking the Cubs, while the Braves might have a shot because Lester lives in the Atlanta area and reportedly purchased a $3.4 million home there last April. But the Braves are in a retooling mode and aren’t looking to spend big money, though they’ve stated they’re looking for pitching wherever they can find it.

The Red Sox and Cubs are considered front-runners because of their ties to Lester, who was drafted by Theo Epstein in Boston and matured as a player under then-pitching coach John Farrell. Farrell is the Red Sox's manager now, and the two helped Boston to a World Series title in 2013, as Epstein did with Lester in 2007. Farrell was there that year, as well.

It might simply come down to the better contract, as it usually does “99 percent” of the time, according to Epstein. The Cubs smartly got out of the Martin bidding when it went too high, and they could easily do the same with Lester.

The Red Sox could be entering the end of a competitive window that has seen them go from last to first and back to last again over the past three seasons. Presumably, the window closes when David Ortiz retires and Dustin Pedroia starts to slow down. By most metrics, the latter had his worst year as a full-time starter in 2014, as he’s on the other side of 30 after spending just under a decade with the Red Sox.

So Lester can take a last stab or two with Boston, where he’s beloved and probably comfortable, or he can go “home” to Atlanta and live in his mansion during the season. Or he can buy what the Cubs were selling him on Tuesday: something new, something on the upswing, something historic. And probably about $120 million to $130 million on top of it.

It has to be enticing for Lester to take his talents to the National League, as many a career American League pitcher has had success going over to face lighter hitting lineups. One prominent agent recently said Lester could produce a “Kershaw-type season” if he pitched in the NL. That might be stretching it, as 2014 might have been his best year of his career, especially since he was pitching for an awful team in Boston until his trade to Oakland. Can he repeat that? He’ll have a better chance to improve on it in the NL -- undoubtedly a selling point for the Cubs' front office.

Dinner in Chicago probably isn’t going to impress a veteran as much as the chance to break the longest championship drought in professional sports, but will Lester buy in? And will the Cubs pay up a year or two sooner than they’re ready to really contend? Of course, the addition of Lester moves them that much closer, but a team like the Cardinals can say, “We’re already there.” And they’d be right.

The Lester tour continues. Where it ends is still a mystery.

Key language on Theo won't get into a bidding war (yet) until we are exactly within our window of winning, for real. Not just trying to get there. Very important.

 

[CP1708]

CJ Edwards added to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Could mean we get to see that kid next year no matte what since he'll be on the 40. Probably start out in pen, but that's ok. He could join Neil Ramirez and a little love from Chris Bosio hasn't hurt anybody.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

CJ getting called up!?!? YESSSSS!!!

He's been injured but hopefully he stays healthy. Let Bosio cook

 

[CP1708]

Doesn't mean he's called up, he can still be in Triple A, or even Double A, just means he's on the 40 man depth chart.

But, these days, because the 40 man is so valuable with injuries and such, you rarely just leave guys there all year in the minors doin nothin for the team and have just 39 available bodies. So the chances of him getting called up are much greater. Just not as of yet.

My guess, he starts year in Minors, maybe gets to Triple A, and if he looks good, and they need an arm in the pen, or maybe even a spot start 5 innings, etc, he could get called up then.


If they left him off the 40 man, he would have been taken in the Rule 5 Draft for sure.

 

[CP1708]

"What I'm hearing is the Chicago Cubs have made a significant offer - significant north of $135 million," Kaplan said.

For Lester. 6 years, 135+ million.

Doesn't mean we're a lock to get him, but we've made our offer, and it's more than the 110 mil the Red Sox started with, so we'll see where he ends up and for how much.

 

[DeadsetAce]

"What I'm hearing is the Chicago Cubs have made a significant offer - significant north of $135 million," Kaplan said.

For Lester. 6 years, 135+ million.

Doesn't mean we're a lock to get him, but we've made our offer, and it's more than the 110 mil the Red Sox started with, so we'll see where he ends up and for how much.

i'm hearing the sox are at 6 years $120M and likely to max out at $130M. i think it'll take $145M+ to get him to pick a team over Boston. but who really knows. the yankees not being mentioned at all in this Lester race makes me EXTREMELY nervous. i'm half expecting them to swoop in out of nowhere with 6 years and $150M to get him.

 

[CP1708]

I'm pretty sure Theo isn't going to spend it all at once, and if Lester passes at 135, he'll just keep his money, and wait to spend elsewhere. We don't "NEED" to spend right now, we can wait til the trade deadline, or even in the upcoming offseason. This year is about competing more, but not necessarily winning it all.

As I've said a hundred times in here, 2016 is the year the clock really starts ticking. 2015 is still about winning, more, but not winning it all, yet.

Theo knows this more than any of us. If he can get fair deal on Lester, great, if he can't, he'll use the money elsewhere.

Same as he did with Martin. (wisely)

 

[CP1708]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 4m4 minutes ago
Source: Dave Martinez joining #Cubs as bench coach.

 

[CP1708]

The Chicago Cubs officially announced the hiring of Dave Martinez as Joe Maddon’s new bench coach, after Martinez departed the same position with the Rays (a position he held under Maddon).

Brandon Hyde, formerly the bench coach, shifts over to coach first base. Doug Dascenzo, recently hired to coach first base, outfield, and baserunning, has been reassigned to an organizational role as the outfield and baserunning coordinator, responsible for both the major and minor leagues.

Despite early speculation to the contrary, Gary Jones – hired when Rick Renteria was hired as manager last year – stays on as the third base coach. Everyone else stays the same as previously announced.

To sum up Joe Maddon’s coaching staff for 2015:

Chris Bosio (pitching coach), Brandon Hyde (first base coach), Gary Jones (third base coach), John Mallee (hitting coach), Dave Martinez (bench coach), Lester Strode (bullpen coach), Mike Borzello (catching and strategy coach), Eric Hinske (assistant hitting coach), Henry Blanco (quality assurance coach) and Franklin Font (staff assistant).

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I like the move.
Joe brought in his right hand man and pretty much kept the rest of the staff intact.
Thank god Bosio stayed put.

 

[odp31]

.500+ would be a success for 15 in my book...

But it is nice to have some optimism for the first time since the Wood and Prior days

 

[CP1708]

Rumor that Jason Hammel may be re-signing.

So we get Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and might get Hammel back as well, just for our 29 year old ace who turned down our 90+ million dollar extension offer?

Theo

 

[sportsjunkie]

Rumor that Jason Hammel may be re-signing.

So we get Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and might get Hammel back as well, just for our 29 year old ace who turned down our 90+ million dollar extension offer?

Theo

Baseball should heat up this week. Winter Meetings starting. I think Castro gets traded.

 

[odp31]

As with any team a front-end rotation addition would be welcome.