Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

Well, we were two back of the top WC spot on Wed, but losing the last two games costs us huge. Even if we win the next two vs Pitt, still 2 back with a week to go.

Mathematically? Yeah, slight chance, but realistically, we will play in Pitt on Oct 7th for a chance to face the Cardinals in the NLDS.
 
Here's that headline in all its everlasting glory:

EVEN WITH LESTER, CUBS WON’T CONTEND IN 2015

Along with Lester, the Cubs had already traded for catcher Miguel Montero and hired Joe Maddon. And the Cubs haven’t really made another high-impact acquisition since then. So the organization’s essentially got today what it had then.

And yet here they are, with 90 wins and a playoff spot, their first since 2008.

Before trying to explain away my lousy prediction, here are the five best moves Theo Epstein’s made since taking over the Cubs’ front office just four years ago...

1. Trading for Anthony Rizzo
In 2011 with the Padres, Rizzo batted .141 in 49 games; today that batting average stands as the lowest for a non-catcher with at least 100 at-bats in the last 20 years. Undaunted, Epstein traded Andrew Cashner for Rizzo after the season; after decent 2012 and 2013 campaigns, Rizzo became one of the game’s best first basemen in 2014, and hasn’t stopped hitting since. On a roster suddenly loaded with good hitters, Rizzo’s still the best. (Oh, and great move 1-A? In 2012, the Cubs signed Rizzo to a long-term contract that locks him up through 2021 at highly team-friendly rates.)

2. Trading for Jake Arrieta
When the Cubs traded for Arrieta two years ago, he was a reclamation project. Now he’s one of the front-runners for the Cy Young Award. As I wrote last month, it’s just an incredible story, the sort of thing you wouldn’t even try to make up. But maybe this is where we give some credit to pitching coach Chris Bosio ... and to Epstein for retaining Bosio even after firing first manager Dale Sveum, and then manager Rick Renteria.

3. Hiring Joe Maddon
We all know it’s practically impossible to quantify the impact of a great manager. But we know Maddon’s teams have consistently won more games than people expected, and we know Maddon’s players generally love playing for him. We also know the Cubs are going to improve by more than 20 wins in Maddon’s first season. Sometimes you just go with the numbers you’ve got.

4. Drafting Kris Bryant
In the long run, drafting Bryant might rank higher on this list. On the other hand, it didn’t take any special genius to pick Bryant second in the first round of the 2013 amateur draft, as he was a consensus top-three prospect. Still, the Cubs could have gone after college pitcher Jon Gray, another tremendous prospect who ranked No. 1 on some draft boards. What’s more, the Cubs had the No. 2 pick in the 2013 draft because Epstein wasn’t too worried about losing 101 games in 2012 ... which, as you might remember, sent at least a few fans (and columnists, and bloggers) into paroxysms of panic and disgust. As a wise man once said, sometimes you gotta lose before you can win.

5. Grabbing Addison Russell
Speaking of losing to win, Epstein took some heat back in July of ’14 when he traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, both of them pitching like real aces, to the A’s for a package highlighted by prospects Billy McKinney and Addison Russell ... neither of them pitchers. How long would it take the 19-year-old McKinney and the 20-year-old Russell to help their new big club? Well, McKinney hasn’t reached Triple-A yet (but remains a fine prospect). Russell, though, reached the majors in late April and took over as the Cubs’ everyday shortstop in early August. His bat’s still a work in progress, but he’s probably the Cubs’ best-fielding shortstop of the last 20 years.

Oh, and Samardzija and Hammel? Samardzija’s struggled this season after getting traded to the White Sox, and Hammel’s been just fine after ... re-signing with the Cubs on a modest two-year deal.

So those are the five moves that have meant the most for this team. Now, the three things I wish I’d known before downplaying the Cubs’ chances in 2015...

One, I wish I’d known Bryant would be so good, so soon. It’s one thing to be the second pick in the draft one year and a Grade A minor-league prospect the next, but it’s quite another thing to rank among the National League’s five or six best hitters the next season.

Two, I wish I’d known that Hammel would rejoin the Cubs.

And three, I wish I’d known that Arrieta would not only prove that his sterling 2014 wasn’t a fluke, but would actually pitch even more brilliantly in 2015.

Oh, and I wish I’d known the Cubs would go 32-20 (so far) in one-run games. When you’re as good as Theo Epstein, a little luck can go a long way.
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Extremely hyped for this, but as noted above, I'd like to see some of the young players focus on contact rather than murdering the ball. We've seen the evolution take place in Rizzo, so I suspect the rest of the kids will follow suit.
 
Bryant is so in control at the plate that I'll be shocked if he doesn't cut down that K rate a bit.

As a kid who grew up loathing every strike out, it kills me to see the K rate so high on this team and in baseball in general. I suppose it's going to be a difficult trend to reverse with the high degree of specialization and guys throwing 97+. Even the best players now strike out as much as Jose Hernandez.
 
90 wins. :wow: :pimp:

Arrieta 21-6, 1.82 ERA, hits a HR, and almost a 2nd. (Warning track fly to Center)

Bryant 2 more hits and his 99th RBI.
 
Just came back from Wrigley today, and it was a great experience. Seeing Arrieta knock one out of the park switched the atmosphere a lot! Going to the Cubs game for the last few years, this one was one to remember. 
 
These days, most of our time and attention is (rightly) spent focused on the Cubs’ rare push to the postseason. With just under 10 games to go, I don’t blame us. However, the Cubs’ immediate future, beyond this season, appears to be even brighter than their present, and free agency is going to play a big role in that respect. With some obvious needs heading into the offseason – starting pitching and center field, for example – let’s check back in on the high-end of the expected free agent class and see what kind of contracts the top players (of possible interest to the Cubs) are preparing to receive.

At Yahoo Sports, Jeff Passan gets us started by identifying nine of the top upcoming free agents and their expected price tags, using similar/recent contracts for comparison. At MLBTR, Time Dierkes consolidated the 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings to a top ten, providing some additional context surrounding the upper tier of expected free agency. Of the twelve different players mentioned across both lists, the seven bolded below strike me as potential Cub targets (and, yes, you could make arguments for some of the others, too). Let’s take one at a time, and recalibrate our expectations for the upcoming offseason …

David Price
Jason Heyward
Justin Upton
Chris Davis
Yoenis Cespedes
Zack Greinke
Alex Gordon
Johnny Cueto
Jordan Zimmerman
Mike Leake
Ian Desmond
Ben Zobrist

While there are many uncertainties heading into the 2016 offseason, one thing is for sure: David Price is going to get paaaaaid. Given his fantastic career numbers before this season, topping $200M was already expected. Now, given the excellent performance in 2015, as well as the contracts of Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, topping $200M is all but certain. Passan believes he’ll wind up somewhere between Scherzer and Kershaw, but Dierkes believes his goal is to exceed Kershaw’s contract. I know there is some mutual attraction between Price and the Cubs, but those numbers will be difficult to square. In his walk year, Price, 30, has pitched to a 2.45 ERA, a 2.79 FIP, and a 3.25 xFIP over 220.1 IP.

Given his youth, offensive upside and defensive prowess, Jason Heyward, 26, is probably the second most (to David Price) frequently discussed Cubs target heading into the 2016 offseason. With Dexter Fowler’s contract expiring at the end of the season, many hope that Heyward will be the Cubs’ center fielder of the future, and it’s tough to blame them (assuming he can translate the defense effectively). Given his unusual youth (for free agency) and overall package, though, Heyward is sure to cost a lot in both dollars and years. Both Passan and Dierkes expect 7 or 8 year deals somewhere above $140. While that sort of contract isn’t necessarily outrageous for someone of his skill level and age, there is a hidden obstacle: Both Dierkes and Passan believe that Heyward may command the dreaded “opt-out,” making the contract no more valuable and a whole lot more risky. While I expect the Cubs would be willing to pursue Heyward above the $100M+ mark, I doubt they entertain an opt out. If that is a deal breaker, the Cubs will probably look elsewhere. In his walk year, Heyward has hit .289/.356/.432 (117 wRC+) over 595 plate appearances, and has played his characteristically excellent defense.

Zack Grienke has turned in one of the most impressive seasons by a pitcher all year. His dazzling 1.65 ERA may not be sustainable, but it is equally hard to overlook. Although Greinke is under contract with the Dodgers for more than $23M per year through 2018, he has the ability to opt out of his contract this offseason. Greinke will turn 32 this October, but both Dierkes and Passan see him overcoming the 6-year, $155M contract the Cubs gave Jon Lester, this past offseason. If that is in fact the case, I would not expect the Cubs to be more than casually involved. With so many other, cheaper and younger options available, that is probably the right call. In his will-be-walk year, Greinke has pitched to a 1.65 ERA (2.77 FIP) over 207.2 IP.

Johnny Cueto is yet another available top of the rotation starter and his position behind Price and Greinke serves to underscore just how deep of a free agent class this is. Unlike the other two, though, Cueto hasn’t had as strong of a season overall. Over a recent ugly 26.1 inning stretch with the Royals, for example, Cueto allowed 28 earned runs off of 48 hits, while watching his ERA balloon up to 3.45 (up a full point, from where it was). While his contract previously felt like a lock to reach seven years, both Dierkes and Passan doubt he’ll get as many dollars or years as Lester. If there is some value to be had, Cueto could potentially be a dark horse Cubs target … even if it remains unlikely, especially when you factor in any potential arm concerns. In his walk year, Cueto has pitched to a 3.45 ERA (3.47 FIP) over 201.0 IP. He is just 29, though.

Jordan Zimmermann has been loosely connected to the Cubs in the past, and remains on the radar heading into the 2016 offseason. Having just turned 29 this season, Zimmermann remains an attractive free agent pitcher, demonstrating once again that he is still healthy and strong despite being a Tommy John surgery recipient in the past (though that subject and certain velocity trends will be among the discussion points this offseason). While 2015 hasn’t been as good as his 5.3 WAR 2014 campaign, Zimmermann appears set to receive a contract above $100M dollars. Depending on the structure and total value, Zimmermann may still be a very nice, young option. In his walk year, Zimmermann has pitched to a 3.68 ERA, a 3.78 FIP, and a 3.80 xFIP over 195.2 IP.

Mike Leake may not have anywhere near the track record of the other pitchers in this post, but he has one thing on all of them: age. At just 27 years old, Leake is young enough to warrant hanging a longer, cheaper deal on. While he doesn’t offer a huge amount of upside, he is relatively consistent and could be a very good, not as pricey mid-rotation option. It might not be sexy, but it might be valuable. In his walk year, Leake has pitched to a 3.89 ERA (4.22 FIP) over 183.0 IP.

The Cubs reportedly targeted Ben Zobrist last offseason and at the 2015 deadline, but he has yet to reunite with former manager Joe Maddon. While he has turned in yet another fantastic offensive performance to match his defensive versatility, I’m not quite sure the Cubs will target him as heavily this offseason, as they did in the months prior. At 34 years old, Zobrist appears to still have plenty of life in the tank, but I’m not sold that the Cubs couldn’t find better use for the money he’d require. According to Passan, Zobrist is likely looking at more than $50M over roughly four years. Dierkes doesn’t mention a contract amount, but agrees that Zobrist is likely headed towards a four-year deal. With a suddenly more complete bench – thanks to Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, Chris Coghlan, Jorge Soler, and Tommy La Stella, among others – I’m not sure that paying Zobrist will be entirely necessary. In his walk year, Zobrist has hit .282/.367/.466 (130 wRC+) over 501 PAs.
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Jake Arrieta 2015

21-6
1 No Hitter
4 CG
3 SHO
1.82 ERA
223 Inn
148 Hit
45 ER
48 Walks
229 K's
10 HR
.88 WHIP
.187 avg against
2.40 FIP
2.67xFIP
7.1 WAR
 
Kris Bryant playing 1B tonight to rest Rizzo.

This year he has played 3B, LF, CF, RF, and 1B, and Maddon has considered using him at SS in a pinch. :pimp:
 
I am not conceding the first wild card spot to Pittsburgh quite yet, 3 games back it'll be tough ,but not impossible.
 
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