Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

I remember this series really well. It was definitely the turning point of us starting to make a run.

SAN FRANCISCO -- Four days in August. They altered the 2015 season for the Chicago Cubs, taking their confidence to new heights. A sweep of the defending World Series champions will do that for a team, as the San Francisco Giants came to town the owners of three titles in the five past seasons. They left Chicago with the Cubs owning them. It was a sweep that changed everything for a young Cubs team.

"At that particular time it was in the middle of the summer," pitcher Jon Lester recalled earlier this week. "It definitely had some wild-card ramifications for us where if we dropped three out of four it could put us in a pretty big hole. We end up sweeping them, so I think on a confidence level for some of the young guys that really helped."

To review: The previous weekend, the Cubs had reached 10 games over .500 for the first time all season. It had been a grind to get there and, yes, they were feeling good about themselves. But they were far from a perfect team and what was to come in the fall was still a hope not a certainty. Still, things came together better that weekend than anyone could have imagined.

Game 1: Thursday, Aug. 6. Final: 5-4

The Cubs shot out to a 5-0 lead after two innings, thanks in part to Kyle Schwarber's three-run blast in the second inning off Giants starter Chris Heston. But the win wouldn't come easy as those were the last runs the Cubs would score, while starter Jason Hammel was surprisingly pulled by Joe Maddon after just four innings and a 5-2 lead. For the first time all season the Cubs manager showed a sense of playoff contending urgency.

"We took Jason out a little early that one game," Maddon explained. "Paradigm shift."

It was as if Maddon was telling his team a nice run to 10 games over .500 wasn't enough. He wanted more -- and he got it.

"Obviously, whenever you get the world champs coming in you want to elevate your game," Hammel said. "When the best arrive you want to make sure your best is there for that game or series. It was a huge moment for us. A momentum builder. Almost a confirmation to ourselves that we were that good."

At the time Hammel bristled at being taken out early but he was more than happy the Cubs held on as closer Hector Rondon sealed the deal with a one-two-three ninth inning.

Game 2: Friday, Aug. 7. Final: 7-3

The day before would mark Starlin Castro's last game as the Cubs' starting shortstop. His season-long slump had dropped his batting average to .236 after a 0-for-4 day. Meanwhile Addison Russell's ascension had taken on a new feel. The leg kick he added during the All-Star break produced more gap power. He began driving the ball more and more in the second half and the Cubs simply believed they would be a better team with him back at his natural position. By Friday, the job at shortstop was all his.

"Yeah I remember it well," Russell said. "Switching over to shortstop. Just had a brand-new son at that time too. First game of the series after being at the hospital for four days. It was awesome to come back to that atmosphere."

Russell went 1-for-4 in Game 2, scoring a run as part of a five-run fifth inning that cemented the Cubs' second straight win. Rookies Jorge Soler and Schwarber drove in two runs apiece in the fifth and once again Maddon displayed urgency in calling on Rondon for a two-inning save.

"If you look at their team they were really good from top to bottom," Russell said. "Sweeping a team like that is not easy and we just took off from there."

Game 3, Saturday, Aug. 8. Final: 8-6

Game 3 was a see-saw affair, which saw scoring by one team or the other in all but two innings. Kris Bryant's two-run home run in the third off of Matt Cain gave the Cubs a lead they'd lose, but two more runs in the fifth put the Cubs in front for good -- though they needed the three runs they scored in the eighth inning to win the game.

That was because it took three pitchers to get the Cubs through the ninth inning, as Rondon was unavailable due to his usage in Games 1 and 2. Justin Grimm earned the save just two days after getting the series-opening victory entering the game in the fifth inning. That's Maddon at his finest: One day Grimm was a middle man, two days later he's finishing off the Giants. But not before three Giants runs had crossed the plate and the tying run was standing in the batter's box, but Matt Duffy grounded out to end the drama.

"Every game felt like that," Russell stated. "We played up to the atmosphere and the hype. That series had all of that."

Lester added: "We also lucked out a little bit. We caught them at a pretty good time. They had some injuries and we played some really good baseball that week and I feel like that kind of set us up for later in the year."

Game 4, Aug. 9. Final: 2-0

The fourth game is the one remembered best by players, because somehow the two runs the Cubs scored in the first two innings off of Jake Peavy held up. The Giants were mostly stifled by Jake Arrieta that afternoon as he was just starting his run of dominance that continues to this day. But after 117 pitches he gave way to Grimm and then Rondon, who would walk a tightrope for his 19th save.

"I remember that last game," Lester said. "The ninth inning."

A near capacity crowd had their brooms out for the sweep but not before Rondon loaded the bases as Brandon Belt singled, Brandon Crawford doubled and Ehire Adrianza was hit by a pitch. Rondon was in meltdown mode.

"We realized when we play our game, no matter who it was against, if we compete we have a chance," Lester said. "I think that carried over throughout the rest of the year for us."

But then Rondon got pinch-hitter Hector Sanchez swinging. One out.

"That ninth inning was something else," Russell said. "Bases loaded, nobody out. I remember that well."

Former Cub Angel Pagan also went down swinging, though it took eight pitches. Two outs.

"Momentum in sports is everything," Hammel said. "Anytime you can do that and look back on it, it was like ‘wow.'"

Giants outfielder Gregor Blanco would last one pitch longer than Pagan. In perhaps the most dramatic moment to that point in the season, Rondon threw three pitches to Blanco with a full count. Three times the runners started, twice the hitter fouled the ball off. But Blanco took the ninth pitch of the at-bat, a slider, for a called strike three. The sweep was complete.

"I remember that last game," Fowler said. "I remember Rondon striking out Blanco with the bases loaded. That was fun."

The Cubs surged to 14 games over .500 and would win five more consecutive games after that. It wasn't necessarily the turning point to the season, but it definitely was the coming out party for a new contender in baseball.

"Maybe we had no business winning those games, but you get a bunch of guys with some innocence of being up in the big leagues and doing their thing we molded and formed as a team in that series and opened some eyes," Hammel said. "It set the tone."

On Friday, Arrieta is on the mound against the Giants, just as he was in that finale last August. This time the Cubs are on the road, where they've fared pretty good so far this season. The Cubs Cy Young winner was a little less nostalgic about the series last year than his teammates as he was focused on the current task at hand.

"New series, new team, new year," Arrieta said Thursday morning. "We're tough to beat. They're good too. We're going to be ready."
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Chicago Cubs
First pick: No. 104 overall
Bonus pool: $2,245,100 (30th)

System strength: The Cubs have young howitzers brewing in the system's lower levels: Dylan Cease, Carson Sands, Justin Steele and Oscar de la Cruz. The club has done a good job sourcing talent from Latin America as Gleyber Torres, Willson Contreras, Eloy Jimenez and Jeimer Candelario are all potential every-day players.

System weakness: This is one of the better farm systems in all of baseball, but it's going to be hard for the Cubs to add much to it this year with the lowest draft bonus pool and lowest international bonus pool in MLB.

Recent top picks
2015: Ian Happ, 2B, No. 9

2014: Kyle Schwarber, C, No. 4

2013: Kris Bryant, 3B, No. 2

2012: Albert Almora, OF, No. 6

2011: Javier Baez, SS, No. 9

Possible fits

David Martinelli, OF, Dallas Baptist: Martinelli has solid all-around tools and is one of the better defensive outfielders in the country. He made a swing adjustment this year and has cut down on his strikeouts but has also dealt with leg injuries.

Jameson Fisher, 1B, Southeastern Louisiana: Fisher is leading D-I baseball with a .450 average and has a natural low-ball swing with comfortable, above-average bat speed. A former catcher, Fisher tore his labrum in 2015, missed the season, and is now a first baseman or left fielder.

Nick Quintana, INF/C, Arbor View HS (Las Vegas, Nevada): Quintana is stocky and physically mature. He probably can't play SS long term and fits best at second base or catcher, where he's already begun to work out. He hits, tracking well with loose wrists and all-fields power. He could be a 50 bat with 50 power (on the 20-80 scouting scale), which plays as long as he can play either second base or catcher.
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Draft Notes, which we don't really need to fret over as much these days. :pimp:

Still tho, Theo will find a couple gems, I'm sure of it.
 
Wind blowing out at San Fran tonight, up to 30+ MPH. Jake better keep the ball down and induce as many ground outs as possible. We could see a few go out tonight. :\
 
He's hurt. He made a ridiculous diving catch, put his face into the wall, bent his whole body.

Batting wise, his OBP is close to .340, perfect for two hole. Especially batting left.

He's hitting the ball hard too, just bad luck. (Shifts, right at someone, etc)
 
Hopefully Heyward won't miss significant time. Luckily KB can play just about any position and Joe has done a good job at keeping the bench involved and ready this early in the season.
 
Heyward out 3-5 days, basically just a bruised rib. That's great news.

Sadly, Maddon needs an extra guy on bench, we bring Szczur off the DL but release Neil Ramirez to do so. :frown:
 
Welp, more than one today. Lester about to end the Cubs' starters going 5+ streak. He's been horrible today. Behind every hitter, 3-2 to almost all of em. 70+ pitches in the 3rd.

5-1. :smh:
 
Got it to 5-3, but too many failures with runners on.

Pen picked up Lester great, but those 2nd-3rd innings were too much.

29-12
 
Last week wasn't a good week. we lost 2 series. Hopefully this week is much better. Bumagrner pitch amazing last night. Kyle Hendricks did pretty well also. no run support.
 
Yeah, this is exactly what Theo talked about.

Losin to Bum/Cole is perfectly acceptable, losin to the Padres, Brewers, and Cain, no. :smh:
 
ALBERT ALMORA, JR.: CAPTAIN OF THE NEXT WAVE

Every so often, the good Lord reaches down and touches a ballplayer with the innate ability to react in an instant to the crack of the bat. It happens so quickly, the average person misses it as they glance at their phone or sip their beverage. A drop-step and whirl before beelining to a descending baseball in a path so straight, the ensuing Statcast report seems to belie human possibility.

Only, that’s not exactly how it works, is it? We’re all given a set of talents, raw, unrefined and requiring extraordinary effort and discipline to hone into something beautiful. The ability to play defense on a baseball diamond is no different. So often, armchair analysts casually throw around discrediting statements, suggesting chance played a greater role than resolute struggle in determining the brilliance a defender exudes. We overlook the hours a future professional spends during their teenage years, chasing down flyballs on a Saturday evening, when the rest of us are going to movies with our friends. We forget the sacrifice made by so many parents after work, when they could be pursuing any self-serving craft, but instead assume the role of unheralded Fungo wielder or batting practice hurler.

Albert Almora, Jr. is one such ballplayer. The grace with which he tracks a flyball demands even the most casual fans take notice. Night after night, he does something impressive without ever appearing to reach maximum effort. It’s important to recognize that he was merely born with special instincts and above-average athletic ability, but the rest is credit to him, his parents and coaches. During an on-field interview with Almora two weeks ago, I made the mistake of suggesting that he was born with a natural ability to play defense. With just the right amount of firm humility, he made sure I knew the truth:

“Man, it’s something that I took to heart as a kid, so I feel like—I don’t want to sound cocky when I say this—yeah, a part of it you’re born with, but I want to say I want to give myself and my father, my parents credit, because I worked my butt off, I really did. I would take buckets and buckets of fly balls every day, and I did for my hitting as well… I’m not going to take away from my offense as well. I think, the difference between offense and defense is that you can be perfect on defense, you can’t be perfect on offense, no matter what you do. There is no one hitting 1.000 in the big leagues, there is nothing like that. But I feel like you can be perfect on defense, so I think that’s why I took that more to heart, because I knew I could be perfect at that.”

It stayed with me when Almora said he took playing defense to heart, simply because you can achieve something close to perfection on that side of the ball. Certainly no one is perfect—Almora himself could be a little faster, or have a slightly stronger arm—but when you watch him play center field, it becomes apparent that he really believes that defensive perfection is achievable. With a mindset such as this, it is of no coincidence pundits believe he can be a Gold Glove caliber center fielder in the future, and a big-league outfielder now.

The purpose of my visit to Des Moines was not to uncover something you already knew—that he’s an elite defensive outfielder—but rather to find out firsthand whether his recently improved results at the plate were because of a mechanical adjustment, or more in the realm of improved confidence. You may recall Almora made a mechanical adjustment in the middle of his 2015 season, switching from a constant ground-engagement front-foot pivot, to his current use subtle leg kick. The first clip shows his approach before the change in Tennessee last season, with the second showing the updated look:

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From my #notascout eye, the latter approach keeps his weight back a split second longer, delaying the power transfer and preventing his front leg from locking out before contact. This ensures a greater amount of force generated by rotational torque travels into the ball, rather than into the ground through his front leg. It also slows the load transfer from the back of the box to the front, which reduces the noise from his waist down. The result of this is greater balance, which allows for cleaner, louder contact. When I asked Almora about the change, he knew when it had occurred, but suggested it wasn’t the biggest factor in the improvement of his results at the plate:

“The leg kick started before June, by May, around there. To me, the biggest thing for me is just confidence… the swing hasn’t changed much besides the step and the leg kick now… but it’s just been a confidence thing for me, and I am really happy where I am at right now… that’s the thing, that’s the tough thing about baseball. You know, when you’re struggling, just to tell yourself that you’re still good at what you do. Just remember what you were doing when you were doing well, from a confidence perspective and just go out there and just do it. That’s the good thing about baseball, you go 0-for-4, the next day is a brand new day. That’s what I go to, it’s a new day the next day. You try and stay positive, and positive leads to confidence… my facial expression is the only thing. I am confident, man. I am just in there, and I get called on a strike, I don’t care, I’ve got two more… and if I get two on me, I’ve got one more. It doesn’t matter.”

It was also enlightening to hear it was his own decision to make the mechanical change. When I asked him whether there was a specific coach or perhaps another player that had suggested he add a leg kick, he told me that wasn’t quite how it happened:

“When I got drafted, I had the leg kick. I kind of got away from it… but to me the leg kick, I just feel comfortable with it. That’s just what I’ve always done as a kid. So I decided to just go back to what got me there in the first place.”

On June 26th, 2015, Almora’s triple-slash line stood at .241/.284/.335. He was mired in a slump, with just two hits in his last 21 at-bats. The most reactive Cubs fans were beginning to whisper of comparisons to Darwin Barney, the glove-first, light-hitting second basemen of yesteryear. The comparison was always absurd, but nonetheless it represented a precipitous fall from grace for Theo Epstein’s first ever draft selection, and a player Epstein once described as “the best hitter in our system,” this even after the selection of Kris Bryant and trade for Addison Russell The next night he went 2-for-4, collecting a double in the process. Whatever it was, something clicked that night, and he hasn’t looked back since. Since then, he’s hitting .312 with an on-base percentage of .358 between his time in Tennessee and Iowa, in a sample that is getting closer by the day to being a full season’s worth. His power is beginning to take hold as well, with 37 extra-base hits in those 382 plate appearances. If you narrow the lens even further, and start with August 5th of last season—not coincidentally coinciding with Miguel Montero’s rehab stint in Tennessee—the results are even more impressive. A .335 average coupled with a .378 on-base percentage, with 29 extra-base hits in 274 at-bats. Almora explained to me what Montero’s presence meant to him:

“He’s really helpful. He’s a guy that’s been in the league for awhile. He just told me “Hey, go out there and play baseball, you’re a great baseball player, just go out there and do your thing!” That’s a big confidence booster, it’s one of those things that turned my year around.”

It became clear when speaking with Almora that credit for the improvements in his game extended far beyond mechanical changes, and included a strong dose of added confidence and focus. There was another angle I wanted him to speak to, and that was whether it motivated him to see his minor-league contemporaries Bryant, Russell, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez achieving success at the major-league level. He didn’t hold back:

“Absolutely, motivation? Absolutely. You know, my goal, listen, everybody’s goal on this field is to be a big leaguer. So it’s no different for me, and I am just working hard every single day. You know, doing what I can control, and what I can control is playing hard, and trying to help the team win day in and day out. So that’s all I am trying to do…”

Almora’s game isn’t perfect. He could benefit from a more patient approach at the plate, and his exceptional defensive instincts have yet to take hold on the basepaths. I asked him whether he could translate this ability into a more aggressive approach on the basepaths, and he again pointed back to rising confidence as a possible catalyst of success:

“Again, baserunning for me this year has just been confidence. Just pick a good situation, and go. Before I used to think a lot… I think there was 20 times, at the beginning of my career, when I would take off on my first step and then shut it down. It was just a thing, and in my head I was like “Oh, I didn’t get a good jump,” and you know it was just a confidence thing… I just had to go. So, that’s what I think my defense plays, that I hear, I just play… I go get everything, that’s my instincts, I’m not scared of the wall, I’m not scared of anything. I’ll go get anything for my pitcher. So, that’s what I just have to translate to the whole game, hitting and on the bases.”

As injuries begin to take their toll on the Cubs’ major-league outfield, murmurs about callups which include Almora’s name are beginning to get louder. It’s likely a matter of time until the 22-year-old makes his debut in center field, but Epstein will likely ensure he’s fully ready before subjecting him to the rigors of big-league pitching. I asked Almora what he felt he had to accomplish to assume the apparent vacancy the Cubs’ have in center field next year, and he brought the conversation back to today:

“I am just going to keep going right now, man. I can’t determine what they are going to do next year, or the year after that. It’s just me, what I can do right now. If they think I can be that guy, let’s go for it. Whatever they want. You know I am just here ready to play ball wherever they put me.”

That’s the kind of answer you’d expect from a young man that has long been praised for his precocious leadership abilities and strong mental makeup. We discussed how he can help pass these attributes along to younger players, and how he can share his experiences to assist others:

“To be honest with you, I don’t feel like I am a vocal guy. I’m not like that… I’m really quiet. I mess around with the guys, but I don’t speak up in that leadership way. For me, If people are to put a leadership tag on me, it’s because of the way I play the game, and that’s what I try to do… I want everybody to know I’ll do anything for them on the field. And that’s just for me the way I take leadership. For me. Like I said, I’m not a vocal guy, but I’ll die for a guy out there on the field… I just wanna go play hard, and hopefully people see that I am not disrespecting the game, and give me some respect for that.”

Only time will tell what’s next for Almora. The roster expansion on September 1st represents a clear opportunity for his promotion to the major-leagues, as the quality of his glove work will allow him to contribute immediately. The real test will come next spring, when Joe Maddon will take a long, hard look at him in an effort to gauge whether he’s ready to establish himself as the starting center fielder of the future for the Chicago Cubs.
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Over the past few years, it seems some Cubs fans have gone from having no expectations to completely unrealistic expectations. Just yesterday when I mentioned it was not the Cubs day on Twitter, there were a few responses saying that it's not been their day for the past few games or the past week.

Yeah, maybe. But so what?

This is a 162 game season. There will be ups and downs for every team -- even the best ones. Even the 1908 Cubs lost 4 games in a row where they were outscored 34-10, including 22-2 in the middle games of that stretch. The mighty 1927 Yankees had a stretch right about this time in their own season where they lost 5 of 8 games. Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and the gang scored just 11 runs in those 5 losses (and 2 or less in four of them).

We live in an era of extreme polarization. It seems that we often are able to see only one extreme or the other. When the Cubs seemed nearly invincible, we reveled in their record and run differential. When they've lost a few games, we start picking holes on their roster and contemplating trades for major players that they suddenly can't win without. The team with the top ERA in baseball and the 3rd best FIP now needs another top of the rotation starter? The 7th best bullpen now needs to risk a deal for Aroldis Chapman, a player who doesn't fit the makeup profile the Cubs value so highly?

And if it's not trades, it's premature promotions. I think we're sometimes conditioned to conflate success with upward mobility. When we do well in our work, we expect to move up. When players do well in the minors, one of the first questions I get is, "When are these players going to get promoted?"

The minor leagues are there for the development of players. In an ideal world, they do not get promoted simply because they are doing well. They get promoted when the scouts, development staff, and front office determine they are ready to handle the next level on more than just the physical aspects of the game.

Players like Albert Almora and Willson Contreras can no doubt compete physically at the MLB level right now, but Almora still needs to work on an approach that can still get overly aggressive at times. It will be exploited by quality MLB pitchers in a way that AAA pitchers cannot. Contreras is probably ready offensively and from the physical aspects of his defensive position (blocking pitches, throwing out base stealers, etc.), but do you really want a rookie who is still relatively inexperienced at the position handling a veteran staff that is the most productive rotation in baseball right now?

This is not to say the Cubs don't have areas to improve. They do and they will be addressed whether it is from within or outside the organization. They will cross that bridge when they get there. They will make moves when the opportunity presents itself, much as they have as they've built this team from laughing stock to legitimate World Series contender.

This is a season we should be enjoying. The Cubs are among the best in baseball -- and by most measures, they are the best. They are a team that excels in all areas of the game, but they are also a relatively young team that is still in the process of getting better, but as was noted earlier, even the best teams of all time have had stretches where they did not play well. It's just baseball when you are competing at the highest level. Every team has the talent to win against any other team on any given day. The best teams will win these games more often but they will not win them all.

On May 10th, the Cubs were 25-6, which put them on a pace to win 130 games. That is absolutely unsustainable. Even today, they are 29-13 and on a pace to win 124 games. That isn't going to happen either. For those who are already worried about the Cubs today, consider that their play from there to the last 3/4 of the season will not be as good as it has been in the first quarter. They will not sustain the pace they have set to this point in the season.

The Cubs have 120 games left. If they win at last year's pace from here on out, a .599 win pct, to be exact (and a win pct that is 165 pts. lower than their current pace), they will win 101 games. The 1984 World Series Tigers team that started 35-5 went a very solid, but not unearthly 69-53 (.566, the pace of a 92 win team) the rest of the way. If the Cubs finish at that pace, they will win 97 games. Even if the Cubs finish at just a .556 pace from here on out (the win pct. of a 90 win team), they will win 96 games this year. Even if they go just .500 the rest of the way -- something even the most pessimistic fan doesn't expect, they will still win 89 games.

Just as we had to be careful to keep our perspective when the Cubs were 25-6, we can't lose perspective when they go on a relatively cold streak. It was inevitable. The Cubs are still a very good team, perhaps even a great one -- but no team can be great all the time. There will be stretches, like this one, where they will look very beatable, but there will also be more stretches later where they appear to be unbeatable again. We can certainly get excited when they win 8-1 and disappointed when they lose 1-0, but we should also understand that neither result fully defines this Cubs team. They are a mix of both those results and many others we will see throughout the season. When all is said and done, this will be a very good team with a realistic chance to be the last team standing. It's not often we can say that, so let's just enjoy the ride while keeping the perspective that this is a long season.
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Unbelievable luck right now.

2 outs, bottom 7, up 3-1, Lackey cruising, pinch hit 2 run Homer. :smh:

Then, 1st and 3rd, one out, Rizzo up, lines into a crazy DP at 3rd, Fowler froze.

Then bottom 9, two outs (again) walk off homer. :x

29-14 :smh:
 
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