Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

Cubs trading for Dexter Fowler. 28 year old switch hitting outfielder. Will update when I hear official deal.
 
Last edited:
SportsJunkie said:
the only thing i hate about this Fowler move is that, it could be a 1 year rental.
Click to expand...

No worries at all. If he leaves, we get a draft pick out of it.

And remember, we have some OF help in the minors that can come up and replace him in 2016 anyways. (Almora, Schwarber, Russell-move Bryant to OF? :nerd: )


Sad to see Valbuena go tho. But Straily isn't a big loss imo. Hopefully Fowler will have a good year at the top of our order, and the middle of the order can drive him in plenty.
 
CP1708 said:
No worries at all. If he leaves, we get a draft pick out of it.

And remember, we have some OF help in the minors that can come up and replace him in 2016 anyways. (Almora, Schwarber, Russell-move Bryant to OF? :nerd: )


Sad to see Valbuena go tho. But Straily isn't a big loss imo. Hopefully Fowler will have a good year at the top of our order, and the middle of the order can drive him in plenty.
Click to expand...



If Fowler have a good year for us. we need to sign him back. Maybe front office has to figure Fowler out first before committing long term to him.
 
The Cubs think Yoan Moncada is a big-time prospect with the chance to become a special player. That is not exactly going out on a limb. This is supposed to be the next great Cuban hitter.

At the age of 19, Moncada fits into almost any long-term investment plan. It’s a matter of access, not a question of wanting to see him someday running around a renovated Wrigley Field and playing with Jorge Soler.

The Cubs can only hope the Moncada situation drags out longer and the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control keeps him in limbo. That’s probably their only realistic shot at winning a bidding war that will come with a dollar-for-dollar tax.

Theo Epstein’s front office can’t offer a bonus higher than $250,000 until July 2 – part of the penalty for a big international spending spree during the 2013-14 signing period.

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have already blown past their international-bonus limits for the 2014-15 signing period. Those two big-market franchises would need to make a deal with Moncada by June 15 – before encountering similar restrictions in the next spending cycle.

The larger point is the Cubs understand they can’t relax because everyone says they have such a great farm system. Especially if they’re not going to be picking near the top of the draft and using sign-and-flip contracts and deadline deals to restock their prospect base.

“We’re not going to sit back and pat ourselves on the back,” said Jason McLeod, the Cubs vice president who oversees scouting and player development. “We’ve hit on trades. We certainly feel good about what we’ve done in the draft and a lot of people deserve a lot of credit for that. We know that soon enough these players are going to graduate on to the major-league team. (That) keeps us incredibly invigorated for the challenge to keep the pipeline going.”

During scouting meetings this week in Chicago, the Cubs planned to assess this year’s draft and discuss a group of around 30 players who could be taken with the No. 9 overall pick.

“It seems to be a pretty strong college-pitching draft, as well as a strong high-school class,” McLeod said. “The college position players, really, at this time, haven’t fully separated themselves yet. But there’s still so much to be seen – and so many games to be played – and a lot of things change.

“Twelve months ago today, I’m not sure (No. 4 overall pick Kyle Schwarber) was going to go where he (wound up) in the draft. You got to let the season play out, but we certainly feel confident that we’re going to get a pretty impactful player.”

What about Brady Aiken? Pitchers straight out of high school might be the riskiest bets in the draft, but the Cubs loved the stuff, makeup and athleticism Aiken showed at San Diego’s Cathedral Catholic, putting the lefty at No. 1 on their board last year. The Houston Astros failed to sign the top overall pick.

“We still don’t know where he’s going,” McLeod said. “I’ve been hearing – who knows with the rumors floating around – he might end up in Florida at the IMG Academy. There are rumors that he’s going to be out at a junior college on the West Coast. But he’s going to be back, hopefully, in the draft pool.

“It will be an interesting year, just to see what kind of information all the teams get coming out of that whole scenario that happened with Houston.”

Whether or not the Cubs live up to all the sky-high expectations, they don’t plan on losing 101 games again. They finished second in that 2012 race to the bottom and took Kris Bryant with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2013 draft. That avenue should be closed now.

Jon Lester made sure to get a no-trade clause in his six-year, $155 million megadeal. Trading away 40 percent of the rotation every summer won’t be an option.

“Hopefully, we’re going to be expecting to pick later in the draft,” McLeod said. “I would hope and assume that we’re probably not going to be involved in those big trades going forward now because of where we are with the major-league team.

“You’re not going to be able to acquire a C.J. Edwards for Matt Garza. You’re not going to be able to go get Addison Russell, because we’re not going to be moving those pieces anymore.

“We’re still going to be aggressive internationally – when the time’s right there.”

Timing could be everything with Moncada. But whatever happens, you need that next wave of talent coming toward Wrigley Field, to soften Lester’s decline phase, to replace Bryant if he walks after the 2021 season, and to win as big as the Cubs keep saying they will.
Click to expand...

:pimp:

You can already see them shifting their thought process to competing now, yet, they will not stop trying to add youth thru the minors/international players to keep the org in good health all the way thru every level. Splendid. :pimp:
 
The Double A Smokies are likely to have a very impressive outfield in 2015. And since I just profiled part of that outfield, part time outfielder and part time catcher Kyle Schwarber, in the last Prospects Progress, this seems like a good time to take a look at another likely Smokies outfielder. Next up is center fielder Albert Almora.

Almora hasn’t had the smoothest of starts to his professional baseball career, and as a result he might be one of the rare high ceiling prospects to be generally underrated by his own fan base.

As for Prospects Progress, this is the annual offseason series that focuses on players at all levels of the minors. Each article will take one prospect … maybe a big name you instantly recognize, and maybe a fringe guy you haven’t heard of … and will spend some time looking at his numbers, his risk factors, and how he projects to fit into the Cubs’ future.

Albert Almora , CF
Born: April 16, 1994
Acquired: The Cubs drafted Almora in the first round in 2012.

The Enigmatic Bat

Almora will play in the major leagues. I have very little doubt on that front. If I were to project the Cubs prospects with the highest likelihood of reaching Wrigley Field, Almora would be among the few at the very top of the list. His glove alone should set him up for a nice career as a bench outfielder even if the bat never really shows up.

That bat, though, is what is making Almora such a tough prospect to evaluate. The scouts generally like his offensive potential, and the swing looks pretty good to me both live and on film (even though I’m not a scout). For example, FanGraphs grades his hit tool as a potential 55 and his power at a potential 50. A 55/50 bat is a pretty good bat. And FanGraphs is not alone. MLB Pipeline projects him at 60 hit / 50 power.

Those are some very nice grades for a 20 year old hitter, and, based on those grades, we could be justified in being all kinds of optimistic as to Almora’s future.

Unfortunately, his 2014 season did not live up to those grades. A glance at the numbers (season line of .270/.291/.392) makes it appear that he didn’t hit for average or for power, and he drew an absurdly small number of walks. It isn’t hard to see why a lot of fans are down on Almora and many already view him just another bust.

I am not one of those people. When we dig into the numbers, I think Almora had a better than 2014 that it appeared, and what’s more I strongly suspect that he has a good chance of breaking out in a big way in 2015.

Can He Hit?

Almora got off to a very slow start in the Florida State League in 2014, perhaps as he adjusted to approach changes suggested by the Cubs, but when he started to hit, he made up for the lost time in a hurry. He left the league with a slugging percentage of .406; that’s good for 20th in the league among qualifiers. Seen in that light, in the context of the rest of the Florida State League, his power wasn’t all that lacking in the first part of last season. He didn’t show the type of exorbitant power that some other Cubs prospects are known for, but then he was never billed as having such power. That kind of power is fairly unusual (in most other farm systems) anyway.

His .283 average, if you were wondering, finished 13th in the league among qualifiers.

And while it is true that his FSL walk rate was just 3.1% (that’s 12 walks if you’re counting), his strikeout rate was also an impressively low 11.9%. Given that recent studies strongly suggest that High A strikeout rates are a stronger indicator of future career success than High A walk rates, the impact of that low strikeout rate isn’t something that we should understate.

But we shouldn’t ignore that low walk rate, either.

At Double A Tennessee in the later part of the season, Almora posted a line of just .234/.250/.355 with a walk rate of only 1.4% and a career high (but still very good) strikeout rate of 16%. However, Almora’s BABIP at Tennessee was just .267. Given that his next worst BABIP is .305, that looks low to me. It looks low to Steamer as well; that projection system slots Almora for a BABIP of .271 if he were to reach the majors in 2015.

I also think Almora’s Tennessee ISO of .121 is on the low side. After all, he managed an ISO of .123 in the hitter-unfriendly Florida State League. The Southern League is generally more forgiving in the power department, so it isn’t unreasonable to think that Almora will improve on that ISO when he returns to Tennessee to start 2015.

Long term, Almora projects as a low strikeout hitter who will put a ton of balls in play, hits for a reasonably high average, moderate power, and will possess just enough speed to keep defenses honest without ever really being a weapon on the base paths. That may not sound like much, particularly when we factor in continued depressed walk totals, but if we combine that projection with his fantastic center field defense, we have the ingredients for roughly a 4 WAR player in the majors.

In fact, if we take his 2015 Steamer projection of .241/.269/.357 and run it through the WAR Calculator to factor in defense and base running, Almora projects as roughly a 2 WAR player today. An MLB projected WAR of 2.0 after just 36 Double A games at the age of 20 isn’t too shabby.

His stolen base totals are low (just 16 in his professional career), and that I think drives the perception that he is slow. He really isn’t. His scouting grades for running are in the 50 to 55 range, for example, and his base running from what I have seen has been consistent with that. I suspect as he grows more familiar with pitchers and their pick off moves that he may get somewhat more aggressive with the steals, but it will likely be a gradual adjustment. I think he has the tools be in the 15 to 20 steals a year category, but I don’t think he’ll take many chances in that department.

On the whole, Almora doesn’t offer the offensive upside of some of the Cubs more power-oriented prospects, but he should have a bat that is capable of holding down a major league starting job and that could be an asset in the lower part of the batting order. Combine that with his glove, though, and Almora has the makings of a valuable player.

Yes, The Glove Is That Good

The most positive things you have read about Almora’s defense are probably underselling him a little. He isn’t the fastest outfielder around, although he is more than fast enough to handle center field in virtually any ballpark. But he easily makes up for any missing speed with his route judgement and timing. While other outfielders may have to use their speed to adjust to the ball, Almora’s routes are generally pretty clean as soon as he starts running.

His arm is strong enough for center, and his throws are generally accurate and to the right part of the diamond. He won’t air mail a ball over the catcher’s head from the warning track in center … but that’s a good thing. He’s a smart player, and you will likely have to watch a lot of plays before you catch him making a mental error on defense.

Without the advanced defensive metrics that are only calculated at the major league level it is hard to say just what his effective range is, but after watching several of his Double A games, I have yet to see him fail to get a ball in the gaps that I felt a better center fielder could have realistically reached. If a play is there to be made, there is a pretty good chance Almora will make it. It is easy to see why scouts love his glove and why they rate his defense as a center fielder in the elite 70+ range.

Prognosis

I do think Almora will return to Double A to start the 2015 season, but I’m not sure he stays there much more than two or three months. If he starts consistently hitting in Tennessee, there is no reason for the Cubs to hold him back from Iowa. I don’t think a 2015 promotion to Wrigley is in the cards in any scenario except some fairly serious injuries in the majors, but he should be a name to watch when spring training roles around in 2016.

Almora is one prospect that often comes up when Cubs fans speculate about trades, and I have no doubt that other teams will be asking about him. It is worth remembering, though, that a Gold Glove caliber center fielder can be a tremendous asset to a team that has a more limited defensive player, a slugging former third baseman perhaps, in left. Finding a major league player with defense on par with Almora’s is possible, but it may not be easy. If the Cubs value Almora primarily for that glove, I doubt he is dealt any time soon.

I am not sold on Almora having an All-Star future, but I do think he has a very good chance to break out in 2015, move back up the prospect charts, and eventually become one of those players that is loved by fans for his outfield defense and by sabermetricians for his low strikeout totals.
Click to expand...
 
I really want the Cubs to sign Yoan Moncada. I think luck is on our side now and we will get him. Keep Building Keep Building.
 
Armed with arguably the best prospect in the game in Kris Bryant and four of the top 20 minor league players in baseball, the Cubs retained the top spot in Keith Law’s ranking of the farm systems.


Last year, Keith Law ranked the Cubs as having the fourth best system in the game and by mid-season, after drafting Kyle Schwarber,trading for Addison Russell and Billy McKinney and the progress many of the players made on the developmental side, Law ranked the Cubs as having the best system in the game.

After promotions of Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara and Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs system is widely considered the best in the game. Keith Law, who has historically been very critical of the organization, thinks the Cubs have the top Minor League system in baseball.

Law noted one major change in his ranking this year is there are “more large-market teams in the top 10, as ownership groups in those cities recognize the value in building a better stable of prospects, which has included hiring better scouts and coaches away from other organizations.”

Keith Law thinks the “hype” around the Cubs system “is justified by the talent in it, with the strongest collection of top-shelf hitting prospects” he can remember since he started working in the game. Law pointed out the Cubs have “someone coming at just about every position other than catcher and first base, and most of them fare well both in traditional evaluation and in analysis of their performance to date.”

The Cubs strategy under Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer “has been to grab a polished hitter in the first round and load up on arms later” has produced a system “that’s full of hitting prospects but still a bit light on the pitching side.” Law does not think there will be enough at bats at the Major League level for Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo “and that’s not even everyone who might end up pushing for playing time” so the front office has set themselves up to “flip a young hitter for a pitcher or even to swing a bigger deal.”

Keith Law likes the pitching prospects in the Cubs system that is “led by 20-year old Duane Underwood, but they are a few years away.”
Click to expand...
 
What is also encouraging is that the Cubs rivals in the NL Central are dropping as the Cubs have risen. The once highly regarded Cardinals farm system now ranks just 13th, primarily because of a lack of star quality.

The Pirates are the closest competition, ranking 7th while the Reds are at 17 and the Brewers near the bottom at #28.

As good as the short term is shaping up for the Cubs, it appears there are still bigger things coming in the long term.
Click to expand...
 
So we have the 9th, and 47th picks in the June draft. (first two rounds)

Last year we had 4 and 45th. So we're still in great shape to get 2 pretty good players to add into the already insane Farm System. :pimp:


Obviously we can still get talent in rounds 3-30, but much more difficult to predict who/what we're lookin at in those rounds.

2 Top 50 picks, for a team loaded in the farm system, is just :lol: considering we've never had this type of depth in our system before. Theo can just keep on adding talent. At some point, as we get closer to being a true threat to win something, he can package some of the extra pieces for that 1-2 key piece we need to complete the roster. When that happens, who knows. Could be this year, could be next winter, could be next season, we'll see.
 
9th and 47th :nthat:

Lets do work!

It would've been a disaster if we fell out of the top 10....won too many meaningless games late in the season.
 
Actually, no. We didn't sign anyone that would have cost our pick.

Lester didn't count because he was traded midseason.
And we traded for Montero/Fowler.
Hammel is another mid season trade guy we signed.
Now, had we signed Shields, yeah, we mighta lost the pick.

Or, negotiating power might have been lost with Lester knowing we had to sign him to keep our pick, he could have demanded more money. Guaranteed pick kept that option away from him.
 
any native chicagoans in here that can recommend me some cool bars and places to eat this weekend? headed into town for a couple days to catch a bruins @ blackhawks game.
 
^
After the game head over to "The Ogden" on Ogden street, just a few blocks away from the UC.
I usually stop by to catch Bulls games or grab a bite a few days a week. good beer selection and good food.

If you're on the north side definitely check out Kumas Corner....good burgers good beer selection and whiskey on tap :nthat:
If you're looking for a little action, hit up downtown, tons of bars and clubs...hit up Division and Rush st and you can just barhop all night.
Grab some Giordanos deep dish and try an italian beef from MR. Beefs on Orleans.

If you feel like catching the auto show hit me up and ill get you some free tickets (this is the last week for the auto show).

I work this weekend otherwise I'd be down to pound a few brews, hit me up if your in town past the weekend.
Enjoy the city!
 
Last edited:
SLP Product said:
^
After the game head over to "The Ogden" on Ogden street, just a few blocks away from the UC.
I usually stop by to catch Bulls games or grab a bite a few days a week. good beer selection and good food.

If you're on the north side definitely check out Kumas Corner....good burgers good beer selection and whiskey on tap :nthat:
If you're looking for a little action, hit up downtown, tons of bars and clubs...hit up Division and Rush st and you can just barhop all night.
Grab some Giordanos deep dish and try an italian beef from MR. Beefs on Orleans.

If you feel like catching the auto show hit me up and ill get you some free tickets (this is the last week for the auto show).

I work this weekend otherwise I'd be down to pound a few brews, hit me up if your in town past the weekend.
Enjoy the city!
Click to expand...

awesome, man...appreciate the info :pimp:

will let you know if we stay past sunday...small chance that we do. depends on my friend. thanks again
 
Last edited:
Seems we’ve been talking about the Cubs more than usual this offseason. Which makes sense — the Cubs are really interesting right now. They’re really interesting right now, and it’s been a while since they’ve been interesting at all. It’s finally their turn. Of course we’re going to talk about them more than, say, the Mets or the Rangers. Sorry, Mets and Rangers.

Bullpens are all the rage in today’s MLB. Starting pitchers are being asked less and less to work deep into games, and so the importance of having multiple bullpen weapons to work the final few innings is at an all-time high. Used to be you’d hear about a team that “played eight inning games.” A team like the Yankees could let out a sigh of relief when they entered the ninth with a lead, because they had Mariano Rivera. Last year, we saw the emergence of the team that played six innings games, as the Royals let out their collective sigh of relief with a lead in the seventh inning as they watched Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland toy with hitters for three innings to close out games.

Everyone would like to have their own version of the Royals’ three-headed monster in the back of their bullpen, which brings us to the back end of the Cubs bullpen.

I’ve made an assumption by putting the word “surprising” in the title. You all know what they say about assumptions, but I make an *** out of myself all the time, so I’m used to it. If you’re a Cubs fan, you already know about the Cubs bullpen, therefore ruining the surprise. But I’m still calling it a surprise, given the players involved.

The guys who figure to pitch the most important relief innings for the Cubs in 2015 are Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Neil Ramirez. Before last season, Ramirez was best known as the “player to be named later” from the Rangers in the Matt Garza trade, had never thrown a major league inning and was already moving to the bullpen after trying to make it as a starter in Texas. Strop was entering his final season before his 30’s and owned a career FIP and ERA that were closer to 4.00 than they were 3.00. And Rondon wasn’t even the most exciting reliever named “Rondon” in baseball and just had a year that could only be called a “success” because he overcame three consecutive lost seasons of elbow surgeries and rehab to pitch 55 mostly bad innings.

In 2014, that same group quietly went about their business — instead this time, they dominated.

To what extent? Well, I made some tables. Made ‘em for this very post! Before I made the tables, I had to have some data, and before I had the data, I had to have a data pool. Constructing that pool required some picking and choosing, admittedly with a bit of guesswork inherent. I tried to figure the most prominent three relievers in each bullpen, right now, for this upcoming season. We know the closers. We know, for the most part, the set-up men. You’ll probably want to quibble with some of my selections for the third spot, but honestly I doubt it’s worth the effort to quibble. It usually isn’t, in life.

First, some context. How good was this trio last year, compared to other trios teams will run out this year? To get a good idea of just pure performance, let’s look at ERA- and FIP-.


View media item 1418403

Up at the top, with a laughable lead, is the team you’d expect to see. Then you’ve got the Yankees, who acquired Andrew Miller this offseason for the sole purpose of trying to build their own bullpen super-weapon. Then you’ve got the Phillies, who you can mentally erase because Jonathan Papelbon likely won’t pitch for them in 2015. Then there’s the team that doesn’t even have Tyler Clippard anymore, and then our Cubs.

Neil Ramirez had a 1.44 ERA, struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced, and gave up two homers. Strop had the same FIP as Kelvin Herrera, struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced, and gave up two homers. And for Rondon, the higher of the two numbers between his ERA and FIP was 2.42, he struck out a quarter of the batters he faced, and he gave up two homers.

And, while recent performance — especially with relievers — is nice, what we really care about is future performance. How good will this group be in 2015? Of course, nobody really knows, but our best guess probably lies within an advanced projection system. Steamer projects the group for the 9th-highest WAR of any trio of relievers, so there’s that. Ninth-best, based on the projections. Fourth-best, based on everyone’s most recent year of pitching, not counting the likely-soon-to-be-Papelbon-less Phillies. If you want, you could argue the Cubs have a top-5 trio. Call it top-10 if you’re more modest.

The projections call for some regression and, of course, we should expect some. They call for it particularly in the home run department, and they call for it particularly in Neil Ramirez. The group, as a whole, gave up a combined six home runs, and it’s likely that number will be higher in 2015. Then again, the same Royals group gave up a combined three — all by Holland — so if you’re calling for regression in one, you’ve got to call for regression in the others.

After all, it’s not like this Cubs unit doesn’t have the stuff. The only relievers last year who threw their fastball harder, on average, than Rondon were Chapman (duh), Herrera, Kimbrel, Rosenthal, Betances and McGee — and that’s good company. That same fastball also has an elite 50% groundball rate, making Herrera a natural and appropriate comparison. Strop’s main pitch is a sinker that goes 96 and his slider got more whiffs any other slider in baseball. And then here’s a fun comp for the fastball thrown by Neil Ramirez:

View media item 1418407
So Ramirez has the right-handed version of Sean Doolittle’s fastball, and we know all about Sean Doolittle’s fastball. Rondon has Kelvin Herrera’s fastball, and nobody has a slider quite like Strop’s.

They had become a forgotten team, reduced to nothing but an army of elite prospects who, at long last, broke into the majors to come into their own. The organization went out and got a frontline starter to complement the young core, with hopes of a potential playoff bid. In the playoffs, they’d need just six innings from their starters because their trio of flamethrowing righties would come in and dominate the final three innings. And they did just that, all the way to the World Seri — wait, is this supposed to be about the Cubs or the Royals?
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Thread Gallery

View Full Gallery

The ultimate sneaker enthusiast community.

NikeTalk was created as a way of giving back to both the sneaker enthusiast community and to the greater global community of which we are all a part.

NikeTalk is NOT affiliated with Nike Inc. in any way, shape, or form. All opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Nike, Inc.

© 1999-2024 NikeTalk.com

Share this page

Back
Top Bottom