Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

Randy Wehofer ‏@RandyWehofer 5m5 minutes ago
Javy Baez launches a moon shot to straight-away CF, capping an 8-run B4. Baez is 3-for-3 tonight, extending his hit streak to 9. #Cubs
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Eloy Jimenez has 3 home runs tonight. He's 18.

If he starts developing like Gleyber Torres has........ :lol:
 
I hope the Cubs sweep the Mets if they play each other in the playoffs . Those bum a** fans are tough to take
 
Castro was on fire last night. Jake was dealing on the West Coast last night.

Sidenote: I might called directv and get the baseball package. dirt cheap now
 
So much talent on this team. Cubs fan all my life & these boys are making me proud.
 
:nthat: @ that SI cover.
Hilarious how all my fam and coworkers who were jumping ship 2 years ago are back on board.
Theo and Jed :nthat:
 
On July 28, the Chicago Cubs lost 7-2 to the Rockies as starter Dallas Beeler got knocked out in the second inning. The Cubs were 52-47. All things considered, it had been a successful season up to that point, as the young Cubbies were just 2.5 games behind the Giants for the second wild card.

Since then the Cubs have gone 20-4, the best record in the majors, and they entered Monday leading the Giants by six games for the second wild card. The Cubs have even reached out to season-ticket holders about purchasing playoff tickets.

Let's see what has sparked this hot streak (stats don't include Monday's walk-off win):

1. Offense

Through July 28, the Cubs were hitting .237 AVG/.314 OBP/.371 SLG and averaging 3.84 runs per game, ranking 10th in the NL in runs per game. Since then, they've hit .267/.347/.494 rank first in the NL in runs per game at 5.61. Rookie Kyle Schwarber has received a lot of attention during this stretch, and with good reason. He's hit .238/.354/.563 with eight home runs, 23 runs and 21 RBIs in the 22 games he's played, but he hasn't been the best Cubs hitter during the team's hot streak:

Anthony Rizzo -- .341/.433/.732, 9 HRs, 25 RBIs

Dexter Fowler -- .315/.436/.629, 5 HRs, 21 runs

Kris Bryant -- .308/.409/.560, 5 HRs, 15 RBIs

Besides those three, Addison Russell has hit .305 while slugging .500; Miguel Montero has hit .289/.400/.632 in 12 games since returning from the DL; Chris Coghlan has hit four home runs; and Jorge Soler has hit .280 with 14 RBIs. It's been a team effort.

2. Pitching

Through July 28, the Cubs had a 3.51 ERA and ranked sixth in the NL with 3.87 runs allowed per game. Since then: 3.64 ERA and 3.78 runs allowed per game. While that ranks third in the league in that span, this hot streak has been sparked by the offense, not the pitching. Jake Arrieta is worth noting, however; he was good up to July 28 but has been nearly unhittable in five starts since, going 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA and .169 batting average allowed. The late-inning relief also has been stellar, as Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm and Tommy Hunter have combined to allow just nine runs in 42 1/3 innings.

3. Defense

The big risk from manager Joe Maddon came on Aug. 7, when Montero returned. Schwarber had been filling in at catcher but moved to left field, a position he hadn't played all season in the minors. Left fielder Coghlan shifted to second base; while he had played there in the minors, he'd played only 7 2/3 innings there in his major league career. Second baseman Russell was moved back to his natural position of shortstop, with Starlin Castro going to the bench. Maddon likely was downgrading defensively at two positions while entrusting shortstop to a rookie. The Cubs have gone 12-3 since the lineup maneuverings.

The benefit here, however, is that the early returns suggest Russell will be a big defensive upgrade over Castro. He is already rated at plus-2 defensive runs saved compared to Castro's minus-6, helping offset the drop from Russell to Coghlan/Castro at second base. Schwarber is obviously in the lineup for his bat, but Coghlan was only average at best in left field, so while it's a drop-off in range, it's not like the Cubs had a Gold Glover in left to begin with.

The other interesting note about the Cubs' defense is that Maddon hasn't shifted nearly as much as he did with Tampa Bay. The Rays were second in the majors in shifts in 2014 under Maddon, but the Cubs rank 24th in the majors in shifts this season, on pace for about 450 fewer shifts than the Rays had in 2014. National League teams in general shift far less than AL teams, so it may be a reflection of that, but it also may be a sign that the Cubs' front office doesn't hold shifting in the same regard as Tampa Bay's front office.

4. Luck/timing

No surprise, this stretch has come largely against some bad teams: Yes, there were six games against the Giants (who the Cubs swept) and Pirates, but seven against the Brewers (without Carlos Gomez), four against the Braves, two against the David Price/Yoenis Cespedes-less Tigers and three against the White Sox. Against the Pirates, the Cubs faced J.A. Happ and Jeff Locke instead of Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. Chicago missed Madison Bumgarner in the Giants series. The loss against the White Sox did come against Chris Sale.

Anyway, after Monday's makeup against Cleveland, the schedule gets a little tougher, starting Tuesday with a big road trip to San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Cubs can almost put the San Fran away in the wild-card race with a sweep or even by taking two out of three. They still have two series left with the wild-card leading Pirates and two with the Cardinals, who lead the Central.

Overall, the Cubs' playoff odds look strong -- 95 percent, according to FanGraphs. They may not get a playoff game at Wrigley since they could end up playing the wild-card game in Pittsburgh or St. Louis, but maybe Cubs season-ticket holders should go ahead and order those playoff tickets. The impending Cubs' dynasty apparently has arrived a year early.
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Could be a costly loss if they don't work some late magic, Cubs luck into skipping Greinke, but face Bum and Kershaw the next two days.

Could catch a 3 game skid if they don't make a move quick here.
 
We’ve been through this about the Blue Jays — a promising team suddenly added both Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, and since then, the Jays have taken off. Since the day Tulowitzki first appeared in a Toronto lineup, the team has gone a league-best 21-4, storming into first place and showing few signs of slowing down. Right now, in the American League, the Blue Jays are probably the best ballclub. With two new elite-level players, there’s no team looking much stronger as we head for the playoffs.

Funny thing about that Tulowitzki-specific date — since then, the Blue Jays have gone 21-4, but the Cubs have gone a strikingly similar 21-5. Granted, the Pirates and Cardinals have also done well, but the Cubs have caught fire, featuring what’s been a top-five offense. Before this specific stretch, the Cubs were 10th in the National League in runs scored, and fifth in runs allowed. Over the highlighted weeks, they’re second in runs scored, and tied for second in runs allowed. Run prevention, they’ve mostly had. Run production is a newer thing. Top-to-bottom power is a newer thing. Just about everyone has been a positive contributor, but in particular, Dexter Fowler and Addison Russell have seemingly turned their seasons around.


Again, I mean, almost everyone’s hit. The whole team is in on this. But in August, Fowler has a 157 wRC+. Russell has a 113 wRC+, after what had been an extended slump. As is frequently the case, there’s a link between these changed offensive trends and talk of swing adjustments. Fowler has put in some work on his left-handed swing. Here’s what it looked like earlier on:

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This only becomes interesting when you see the updated version:

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The hands, maybe, have gotten a little bit lower. The bat, maybe, has changed where it’s pointing. But look at Fowler’s lifted leg. More recently, Fowler has shown a more aggressive leg kick, lifting the knee higher before striding forward. It doesn’t have that much to do with the swing itself, but it can alter a hitter’s timing, and it can possibly have positive effects on his balance. Okay, let’s move on. Russell is different, too. Russell, early in the season:

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He’s staying back, but he has a wide foundation, and a conservative stride. Now for a recent image of Russell. This is more dramatic than the Fowler case:

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Believe it or not, that’s the same hitter. He now seems a little more upright, but more significantly, there’s the whole front-leg thing. Instead of keeping his front leg in front of him and just lifting the foot slightly off the ground, now Russell brings his front knee close to his back one. This is a very aggressive leg kick, and if you remember what it looked like, it feels a little similar to Javier Baez. Some people would use the term “loading”. I don’t know enough about swings to know which are the appropriate terms to use, so I’ll settle for just posting the pictures. Look at the pictures! Different mechanics. It can’t be argued.

So Fowler is showing a higher leg kick. Russell, too, is showing a much higher leg kick. Already, that’s interesting — any on-the-fly changes are interesting. But, say, observe teammate Anthony Rizzo:

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Well okay. That’s a big step. What if we looked at teammate Kyle Schwarber?

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Holy god damn, it’s even more aggressive. Rizzo brought back his front leg. Schwarber did it more, such that his front foot actually crossed over his back foot. A picture like this doesn’t guarantee massive power, but it certainly suggests it. You look at a hitter doing this, and you don’t think he wants to hit the ball. You think he wants to obliterate the ball. (Which Schwarber has done.) Oh, but, I’m not finished. Starlin Castro hasn’t been real good this year, but he was good enough to pose for a photograph:

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Looks like Russell. Or, Russell looks like Castro, I don’t know. They look the same, is the point. What about Miguel Montero?

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That’s definitely a high step. It’s no Schwarber, and it’s a little shy of Rizzo, but you’re still looking at a transition state before a long stride. The right foot is well off the ground. Chris Coghlan?

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This is the least-aggressive lift we’ve seen, with the foot not off the ground by much, but you still get some lower-body turn. The knees are brought more or less together before the stride. So, while Coghlan doesn’t look exactly like Rizzo, there are some of the same principles. Here, it’s just quieter.

Lest you think otherwise, not every single Cub does the same thing. Kris Bryant, somewhat famously, has a limited number of moving parts. His swing is simple, given the power he’s able to generate.

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Bryant keeps a wide foundation and basically just has a toe-tap mechanism. Less famously, Jorge Soler keeps reasonably quiet:

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Like Bryant, Soler stays wide and keeps his toe down. He also possesses enormous raw strength, so you figure he doesn’t have to do as much to tap into it. The general point here is that the Cubs have a couple of relatively quiet hitters, so it’s not like they have a complete team identity.

But, this is a team that’s had some pretty aggressive front legs, and I never embedded a screenshot of Javier Baez. Some were already in place, but more recently, Dexter Fowler has gotten more aggressive with his leg, and the exact same could be said of Addison Russell. They’ve made some similar tweaks, so while I don’t have any inside information on this one, it would appear this is a mechanism from which the Cubs hardly shy away. There are people who believe an aggressive front leg makes a hitter vulnerable to having his timing screwed with. Maybe or maybe not, but if the Cubs were concerned, they wouldn’t have instructed Fowler and Russell as they did. To this point, they’ve been better off. That could have to do with any number of things, but the swing is the first thing that comes to mind.
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Manny influence? :nerd:
 
Earlier this week, when the Chicago Cubs were 21 games over .500 (72-51), in sole possession of the second Wild Card and generating all-around good feelings. After a nearly historic stretch of baseball, Cubs VP and GM Jed Hoyer hopped on Kap & Haugh to remind us that the Cubs really do have a chance to do something special if they keep up their winning ways. Below, are some of the highlights, together with my thoughts, from that interview…

Right off the bat, Hoyer mentions that, while it’s nice to be 21 games over .500, it’s not something you think about on a daily basis. Implying that the season is a marathon, not a sprint, he cautioned against getting too high with the good times or too low with the bad times. Specifically, he mentioned that the Cubs long home stretch – sandwiching a series on the South Side – was extremely beneficial and made the winning even more fun.

More importantly, Hoyer warns us not to put temporary goals on anything – something of which I am certainly guilty. I find myself pining for particular wins during particular series, or, worse, scoring runs in particular innings against particular pitchers. Operating this way does not yield a practical set of expectations and skews the perceived talent level of the team. Results can be affected by things out of the team’s control; so we should all try to root for a good approach and hope that good baseball follows.

When asked if the changing (and increasing) expectations have any impact on Hoyer’s decisions, the Cubs’ GM answered rather interestingly. Expectedly, he loves and appreciates the fan enthusiasm, but does not allow those expectations have any effect on how he manages the team. He does mention, however, that the team’s performance and progress can change the plans.
Specifically, the recent hot streak has put him in a position where every avenue and path must be explored. And while he would generally love to improve the team in August, via trade, waivers have been especially clogged this year, and not many guys have gotten through (specifically, from some teams “blocking” others). He also mentions that they have the financial backing to make any of the reasonable in-season moves they’d want to.

Jorge Soler’s injury hurts, especially because he had been playing well of late, but returns from oblique injuries are hard to pin down. Sadly, Hoyer mentions that you almost have to assume the worst when it comes to oblique injuries because of the rotational nature of the injuries in a rotational sport like baseball.

Asked whether Javier Baez – who has been playing great recently – figures into the plans on replacing Soler, Hoyer clarifies something we’ve been guessing for a while: they are moving him around the diamond on purpose, so that he can help all over the field this September. Whether or not he becomes a full-time player at one position next year, that versatility might be the best way to utilize Baez for this team right now.

Anthony Rizzo is having a fantastic year and a lot of it is due to his research on how Joey Votto plays the game. After his first year in Chicago, the front office explicitly told Rizzo to take a closer look at Votto’s game and, apparently, it stuck with him. Hoyer is most impressed with the improvements in his approach against lefties and he thinks that his ability and success closing holes in his game will be a great example for the rookies on the team.

Jon Lester puts a lot of pressure on himself, which is very obvious, to earn the contract that the Cubs gave him this past offseason. Despite actually having a pretty strong year, Hoyer believes Lester can sometimes be too hard on himself, ultimately affecting how he plays. At the same time, that is precisely the reason they felt comfortable giving him such a large contract; Lester is a guy that keeps working, even after he got the big payday.

In a nearly identical review to what I wrote about yesterday, Hoyer believes that Maddon’s biggest strength is letting his players play without fear of making mistakes. He lets his guys play, be comfortable and have fun. Additionally, Hoyer adds that Maddon has kept the team strong when they were struggling, and never let any sense of desperation or discouragement show through. It’s pretty clear guys like playing for Maddon, and front offices like his style.

Further, Hoyer loves that Maddon prioritizes winning every single day and is exceedingly well prepared. Regardless of the situation or the player, getting the team a win trumps all other decisions. When every player is aware of this methodology and it is enforced equally across the board, no one gets down if they are relieved, pinch hit or double switched out for defense. Did I mention how awesome Maddon is?

The overall theme of the interview is that this team is having a ton of fun and meshes together very well. The young guys, many of whom are here for the first time, are being silly and having fun, and the veterans are feeding off their excitement and providing guidance. Hoyer really believes that everyone acts as one, and there is a very strong team-first mentality. It’s difficult for us to quantify these sort of things, but after hearing it from the players, the manager/coaches and the front office, it’s hard to argue it’s not a factor. Go ahead and give the interview a listen, because there is even more in there than I addressed above. It’s plenty educational, but mostly, it’ll make you even more excited after a couple down-ish days.
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Arrieta needs to stop this skid.

Kris Bryant 2 run homer in the first should help get it started.
 
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