QB THREAD - 2x quarterbacky award winner: Lamar Jackson

[CP1708]

No dude. I need google to get Ferrell Edmunds stats, not to remember he was worthless in terms of grand scheme of player hierarchy. I LIVED with this team my whole life dude. I am telling you, I know who and what these guys are. ALL Dolphin fans do. Look it up.

Dwight Stephenson, the lone HOFer that Marino played with, was a CENTER. And played 4 full years with Marino.


I have no idea who the second one is, unless you refering to Thurman Thomas, and if you are, you are going on my block list quicker than ****.

 

[nako xl]

[h1]  [/h1]

[h1]The Most Clutch Postseason Quarterback Of All Time Is Eli Manning[/h1]
By Nate Silver

Saturday’s AFC divisional playoff game featured a matchup between two quarterbacks with clutch reputations: the Baltimore Ravens’ Joe Flacco, who entered the game with a 10-4 lifetime postseason record, and the New England Patriots’ Tom Brady, whose first three playoff seasons all yielded Super Bowl championships. The Patriots got the better of the Ravens after a terrific game, but both quarterbacks played well, with Flacco tossing four touchdowns in a losing effort.

A day later, the Denver Broncos’ Peyton Manning would produce just 4.6 yards per passing attempt against the Indianapolis Colts, lower than in any of his 16 regular-season starts. While Manning avoided an interception, he threw just one touchdown and Denver lost 24-13. The effort rekindled doubts about Manning’s postseason performance — as you’ll recall, Manning’s most recent postseason appearance did not exactly go well — along with questions about whether he’s past his prime (he’s 3.

How you evaluate the postseason records of Manning, Brady and Flacco depends on how you define clutch performance. Is it performance relative to expectations that matters? Or is it performance in an absolute sense?

Manning’s postseason record is pretty decent by one standard and pretty terrible by the other. His lifetime postseason record is now 11-13. It’s not easy to win playoff games, and Manning has had the misfortune to play in a fairly deep era for the AFC (one that has included Brady). Nonetheless, Manning’s record is a bit worse than you’d expect based on the performance of his teams during the regular season.

In the chart below, I’ve tracked Manning’s postseason record as compared with expectation based on Elo ratings for his teams and his postseason opponents at the time the games were played. As an alternative measure — more about how this is calculated in a moment — I’ve charted how Manning’s teams would expect to do in those games if he had fallen into the Springfield Mystery Spot and a replacement-level quarterback had substituted for him.

Manning’s teams have been favored, according to our Elo ratings, in 17 of his 24 postseason games. It’s often been a narrow advantage; viewed probabilistically, you’d set the over line at 13 or 14 wins. Manning has won 11. It’s not a totally disastrous record — Manning has won a Super Bowl, after all, and led his team to two others — but it’s on the lower end for great quarterbacks relative to the lofty expectations they establish.

But what if those starts had instead been taken by backups like Jim Sorgi or Curtis Painter or Brock Osweiler (all of whom serve as functional examples of replacement-level quarterbacks)? We have the Broncos and the Colts as underdogs in all 24 of those hypothetical games. No doubt they’d have backed into a few wins despite their underdog status, but Manning’s teams project to an 8-16 record on a probabilistic basis without him. Peyton’s 11-13 record looks pretty good compared to that.

We can run the same numbers for all quarterbacks who played in the postseason since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Specifically, I’ll look at the records for what I’ll call the principal quarterback, who is the one with the most passing attempts during the game (not necessarily the one who started it). A total of 180 players have served as principal postseason QBs by this definition.

Below, I’ve listed the records for the top and bottom quarterbacks, along with those who have been active in this year’s playoffs or who have been a principal quarterback at least 10 times in the postseason. I’ve also listed each quarterback’s projected record based on Elo. Finally, I’ve listed the result of a set of 25,000 simulations of each quarterback’s postseason career where QBs were randomly assigned wins and losses based on the probabilities established by Elo. I counted up how often the simulated quarterback bettered the actual quarterback’s win total, giving half-credit to cases where they finished with the same record.

By this measure, the most clutch postseason QB of all time is Manning — Eli Manning. His New York Giants have often been underdogs in the postseason and projected to a record of 4-7 or perhaps 5-6 in his 11 games. Instead, Eli Manning’s teams have gone 8-3. According to the simulations, there’s just a 1 percent chance of achieving such a strong record based on chance alone.

This does not, incidentally, serve as evidence that Eli Manning or any other quarterback has some extra gear that kicks in during the postseason. Eli’s been awesome during the postseason, but with 180 QBs in the sample you’d expect to find a few fluky cases based on chance alone. This is also not to say that clutch quarterbacking doesn’t exist. As my colleague Benjamin Morris has repeatedly documented, some quarterbacks — including Peyton Manning — consistently manage the game better in clutch situations, such as during a fourth-quarter comeback drive. Indeed, clutchness is so intrinsic to quarterbacking that it’s hard to distinguish a clutch QB from a good QB. But that clutchness ought to show up in a QB’s regular-season stats and his team’s regular-season win-loss record and Elo rating. It’s not clear that some quarterbacks are clutch in the regular season but unclutch in the postseason.

Peyton Manning, of course, is the closest thing to an exception. As compared with the record projected by Elo, his postseason record ranks 161st out of the 180 QBs in our sample. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 games in the database, only Warren Moon and Randall Cunningham rank lower.

But this is a somewhat ridiculous list. The top five consists of one great quarterback, Joe Montana, along with two pretty good ones (Eli Manning and Flacco). It also has Trent Dilfer and Jeff Hostetler. Meanwhile, Brady ranks just 43rd by this measure. His postseason record is excellent — 18-8, not counting one game where he was hurt and replaced by Drew Bledsoe. But because the Patriots were favored in most of those games, he doesn’t get much credit for it. You’d have expected them to go about 17-9 based on Elo ratings.

Here’s the problem: This way of thinking about quarterbacks forces them to compete against themselves. Sure, the Patriots have often been favored to win their postseason games. But a lot of that is because Brady is their quarterback. How might the Pats have expected to do with a replacement-level QB instead?

They might not have been totally hopeless. Brady has usually had a little bit more talent surrounding him than Peyton Manning has. (Matt Cassel, who rates as somewhere between average and replacement-level, led New England to an 11-5 record when Brady was hurt in 2008.) Bill Belichick would probably have snuck them into the playoffs a few times. But they’d also have been playing good opponents. Our method projects them to a 12-14 or 13-13 postseason record rather than Brady’s 18-8.

I calculate these estimates based on a quarterback’s adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/Y), a metric that accounts for yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions and sacks — basically it’s a better version of the NFL’s passer rating. A replacement-level quarterback typically posts an ANY/A at about 80 percent of the league average, so a QB gets credit for any performance above and beyond that.[sup]1[/sup] I then translate this into points added or subtracted in the regular season[sup]2[/sup] and translate points into a team’s Elo rating to evaluate the impact the QB had on his team overall.[sup]3[/sup]

It’s notoriously difficult, of course, to distinguish the performance of a quarterback from that of his teammates, but this method produces some reasonable-seeming results. This year’s Green Bay Packers project as a slightly below-average team with a replacement-level guy subbed in for Aaron Rodgers , for instance. Instead of having been 59 percent favorites in their Sunday game against the Cowboys, as they were based on Elo ratings, they’d have been roughly 2-to-1 underdogs.

The principle is simply that the better the quarterback, the more his team would be harmed by removing him. In the case of Peyton Manning’s teams, I estimate that pulling Manning would hurt them by about a touchdown (7 points) per game. That’s enough to demote them to a projected 8-16 record in the 24 postseason games Manning has played.

We can rerun the numbers for all 180 playoff quarterbacks, comparing each QB’s actual record against the simulated one achieved by replacement-level QBs against the same schedule. By this measure, Peyton Manning moves up to 28th on the postseason list; there’s only about a 10 percent chance that a replacement-level QB could have equalled or bettered his 11-13 record.

Eli Manning remains No. 1 overall, but this time in a photo finish over Joe Montana and Kurt Warner. Flacco still rates highly, in fourth place. Brady moves up to No. 6, right behind John Elway. Brett Favre advances to 19th from 78th. While there’s still a Dilfer and a Hostetler here and there, it’s a much better list of quarterbacks.

This shouldn’t be surprising: Before, we’d essentially been punishing great QBs for having been great during the regular season. Some have been even greater during the playoffs. Others have reverted to being a little closer to average. Peyton Manning falls into the latter group. His career postseason passer rating entering Sunday’s game was 89.2, less than his 97.5 rating during the regular season but still pretty good. But if the Colts and Broncos haven’t quite had the postseason records you’d hope for with Manning at the helm, they’ve been a heck of a lot better off than they would’ve been with Jim Sorgi.

@dmxfury in here right?

 

[Chester McFloppy]

Warner.

 

[mister friendly]

You don't remember Edmunds stats by heart

Stop lying

No its Don Shula.....Because having a Hall of Fame coach doesn't matter

So now he only played him for 4 years?

Its actually 5 years and all those years was a First Team All Pro!

Favre only played with his lone HOFer Reggie White for 6 years and dude was in his 30s the whole time

You have to be a Dolphins fan to know which players were good in an era

 

[dmxfury]

Still discussing Ferrell Edmunds. I've never been more frustrated with a thread in S&T

And Phins fans can chime in but Shula in Miami from the late 80s/early 90s and on did not impress like Shula in Balt and his success with Mia up to mid 80s. Product if teams or did he lose some touch?

 

[Deleted member 37754]

I need google to get Ferrell Edmunds stats, not to remember he was worthless in terms of grand scheme of player hierarchy.

[COLOR=#red]reading is fundamental.

why this failed topic is still being discussed in a good thread I like to constantly read, I'll never know...[/COLOR]

 

[mister friendly]

Still discussing Ferrell Edmunds. I've never been more frustrated with a thread in S&T

And Phins fans can chime in but Shula in Miami from the late 80s/early 90s and on did not impress like Shula in Balt and his success with Mia up to mid 80s. Product if teams or did he lose some touch?

I think he became enamored with Marinos talent

 

[HEATHEN]

My current rankings.

1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Wilson
4. Luck
5. Peyton
6. Brees
7. Roethlisberger
8. Flacco
9. Eli
10. Rivers
11. Cam
12. Stafford
13. Ryan
14. Palmer
15. Tannehill

As for all-time, I put Brady ahead of Peyton.

Reason being, folks always peg Brady as the system QB yet he's consistently made average receivers look better than they are. Sure he's had Moss, Gronk Hernandez & Welker, but for the most part the guy has had to deal with the likes Branch, Patten, and Troy Brown (and before anyone says it, Brown is a HOFer for his return game not his receiving game) Not spectacular receivers at all but Brady made them better than they appeared. Whereas Peyton has had future hall of famers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Demaryius Thomas is another HOF caliber talent, ditto Julius Thomas.

And he has to have a team/offense constructed a certain way or else he'll struggle. Guy is immobile so he needs an offensive line to be top notch. He can rarely extend plays with his legs and keep drives alive by running for first downs. IMO it's Peyton that needs to be in a specific system for him to be successful whereas Brady could probably be successful in a lot of other NFL offenses. Not a lot of QBs in the history of the NFL could squeeze production out of unspectacular talents like Brady has throughout his career and when he does have uber talents he puts up monster numbers.

Imagine if he had Moss all his career, imagine if Gronk never got hurt or Hernandez never killed Odin......or allegedly all those other people.

 

[CP1708]

He had just as much of a supporting cast as many other great quarterbacks

Please look up how many HALL OF FAME players he played with in his career, vs Peyton, Brady, Joe, Kelly, Aikman, Favre, etc.

Do that for me real quick, I know you got google right there, open a tab up real quick.

Peyton- 0 probably will be 1 or 2
Brady- 0 probably Randy Moss maybe Gronk?
Marino-2
Montana- 4
Kelly-4
Aikman- 4
Favre- 1
Elway-2

So let me get this straight.

You counted Don Shula as a HOFer playing with Marino, but not Billichick, or Walsh, Dungy, etc?

Is that what you just did?


And1983 was Dan's rookie year, and he didn't play the entire year.

1987, Stephenson played 9 games.

84, 85, 86, are the FULL seasons he played along side Marino. At Center.


But you claim he had just as much talent as Jim Kelly, Aikman, Joe Montana, etc.

 

[a55a5in11]

Oh boy, this is gonna be good

 

[a55a5in11]

Is Marshawn Lynch a HOFer?

 

[HEATHEN]

Is Marshawn Lynch a HOFer?

Absolutely, first-ballot.


In my opinion he is THE best RB in the NFL right now.


Le'Veon Bell, Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles & Matt Forte are up there but I feel like Lynch is the best.


And while we're on the subject, Mr. Frank Gore is a HOFer as well.


Adrian Peterson who?

 

[rolaholic]

Is Marshawn Lynch a HOFer?

If he has 1-2 more seasons like the ones he's had the past 4 seasons on top of the team success than most definitely imo

 

[pacificnorsewst]

Still discussing Ferrell Edmunds. I've never been more frustrated with a thread in S&T


And Phins fans can chime in but Shula in Miami from the late 80s/early 90s and on did not impress like Shula in Balt and his success with Mia up to mid 80s. Product if teams or did he lose some touch?

The Bill Polian of coaches. Living in high esteem based on past results. Gets a pass for the rest.

 

[shatterkneesinc]

Eli only receive praise at the expense of making Peyton look bad.

But thats my QB

 

[DeadsetAce]

Eli and Flacco in January :x

 

[HEATHEN]

Eli only receive praise at the expense of making Peyton look bad.

But thats my QB

Peyton is the better QB no doubt but there A LOT of things Eli does better.


He's more versatile, can actually run out of the pocket to extend plays, can play with a full-back, is definitely better at shedding tackles in the pocket, is definitely better under pressure in big games.

 

[mister friendly]

He had just as much of a supporting cast as many other great quarterbacks

Please look up how many HALL OF FAME players he played with in his career, vs Peyton, Brady, Joe, Kelly, Aikman, Favre, etc.

Do that for me real quick, I know you got google right there, open a tab up real quick.

Peyton- 0 probably will be 1 or 2
Brady- 0 probably Randy Moss maybe Gronk?
Marino-2
Montana- 4
Kelly-4
Aikman- 4
Favre- 1
Elway-2

So let me get this straight.

You counted Don Shula as a HOFer playing with Marino, but not Billichick, or Walsh, Dungy, etc?

Is that what you just did?


And1983 was Dan's rookie year, and he didn't play the entire year.

1987, Stephenson played 9 games.

84, 85, 86, are the FULL seasons he played along side Marino. At Center.


But you claim he had just as much talent as Jim Kelly, Aikman, Joe Montana, etc.

Oh boy

Ok the "entire year".... Dude, Dan Marino played 12 games that year

I guess we wont count seasons for Elway, Montana, Moon or Aikman season since they didn't play the full year

You remember 1987 was a Strike Year?

Dwight got injured with like 3 games left, he still got First Team All Pro

I forgot Belichick and I counted Walsh for Montana

Dungy is not in the HOF, he'll probably get in eventually but so will another coach Marino played for

 

[HEATHEN]

Eli and Flacco in January :x

Their final forms. :x

Oh you don't like our hum-ho stats in-season? YOU FOOLS!!!!

 

[rolaholic]

Eli and Flacco in January

February as well 

 

[HEATHEN]

So Derek Carr or Teddy Bridgewater?

 

[100027]

So Derek Carr or Teddy Bridgewater?

Teddy.

Please let this thread go somewhere interesting, this ongoing conversation about the 1980s is one of the worst things I have ever seen.

 

[Chester McFloppy]

So Derek Carr or Teddy Bridgewater?

Teddy, tho Carr did impress me in one or two games last season.

 

[HEATHEN]

Carr's play definitely improved as the season went along. Man if Harbaugh ended up coaching the Raiders though, would've done wonders for that boy's development.


As of right now I think Bridgewater is slightly better.


Will be interesting to see how both guys do in their second year.


Blake Bortles though, :x. A little premature to call him a bust but he's definitely trending in that direction. I will say I thought he had the best receivers of all rookie QBs at his disposal and really underwhelmed.

 

[100027]

Carr's play definitely improved as the season went along. Man if Harbaugh ended up coaching the Raiders though, would've done wonders for that boy's development.


As of right now I think Bridgewater is slightly better.


Will be interesting to see how both guys do in their second year.


Blake Bortles though,

. A little premature to call him a bust but he's definitely trending in that direction. I will say I thought he had the best receivers of all rookie QBs at his disposal and really underwhelmed.

On paper the Jags had good receivers, but in reality they were in and out of the lineup all year.  In addition, their O-line was terrible.  

I do think he is trending towards bust territory, but it's not certain yet.

Excited to see both Carr and Teddy now that their teams will be taking another step forwards this offseason.