2014-15 Lakers Season Thread (21-61) KAT

This summer, if the chance comes, Love, Rondo, Neither, or Both?

  • Love

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Rondo

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Neither

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Both

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
  • Poll closed .
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Pelton:
Can the Lakers lose enough?

Having started 1-7, the Los Angeles Lakers are staring at the prospect of their worst season since moving to L.A. five-plus decades ago. But there could be a reward to their patience in next May's NBA draft lottery.

Every non-playoff team has incentive to lose as many games as possible to improve its draft pick, but the Lakers' stakes are even higher. Because of their ill-fated trade for Steve Nash, the Lakers owe the Phoenix Suns their first-round pick -- if it falls outside the top five selections in the 2015 draft. The Lakers keep their pick if it lands in the top five, a prospect that looks increasingly likely.

Thus far, only the winless Philadelphia 76ers are behind the Lakers in the standings. There are reasons to believe their record might not be indicative of their talent. The Lakers will be more dangerous offensively once they get swingman Nick Young back in the lineup, giving them another scoring threat besides the overtaxed Kobe Bryant. And their schedule has been relatively difficult in the early going -- third in the league, in terms of opponents and location.

Still, the Lakers have been even worse than projected defensively (they're allowing 2.0 more points per 100 possessions than any team has since the ABA-NBA merger), and preseason projections already had the Lakers at the bottom of the Western Conference. So things might not actually get that much better.

The past two seasons, I've simulated the remainder of the schedule using a combination of preseason projections (in this case, both my SCHOENE projection system and projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus) and performance to date. Right now, based on research by Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight, 2014-15 performance makes up about 20 percent of the projection for the rest of the season.

In more than 1,000 simulations, the Lakers averaged 21 wins -- six fewer than last season, their worst in Los Angeles -- and finished with the league's second-worst record (ahead of the Sixers) nearly two-thirds of the time. Such a result would guarantee a top-five pick for the Lakers, and simulation shows them keeping their pick more than 95 percent of the time.

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This is relevant because few teams are more in need of young talent than the Lakers. Because they have repeatedly used draft picks in trades, the Lakers don't have a single player on their roster acquired through the draft between Bryant (1996) and Robert Sacre (2012). Despite Bryant's continued presence, the Lakers have given 22.3 percent of their minutes to players added through the draft. (In fairness, this number would be somewhat higher if not for injuries to Ryan Kelly and 2014 lottery pick Julius Randle.)

For contrast, the Lakers can look at the opposite sideline during Friday's game against the San Antonio Spurs. More than half of the Spurs' minutes -- 56.9 percent -- have gone to players they added through the draft. Besides the veteran core of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, San Antonio has added starters Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter to extend its run and win another championship while the Lakers have slipped into the lottery.

As the Lakers plot their comeback, adding contributors through the draft will be crucial. Using cap space to sign free agents requires stripping the roster, and for the Lakers to have any depth around the stars they might be able to lure, they'll need to get contributions from players on cost-controlled rookie contracts. If Randle and a potential 2015 lottery pick turn into quality starters, that will make the Lakers far more appealing to free agents who don't want to wait for the team to build a supporting cast.

So don't despair a likely loss to the Spurs Friday night, Lakers fans. Check out Chad Ford's coverage of the 2015 draft and take consolation in the knowledge that help is on the way.
Surprisingly, it looks as though the Denver Nuggets might provide the Lakers' strongest competition for the Western Conference cellar. In fact, after surrendering 84 points in the first half of Wednesday's 130-113 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, the Nuggets now have the worst point differential (minus-10.0 points per game) of teams trying to compete in the NBA. (That is to say, not including the Philadelphia 76ers.) Any hope of a playoff return appears lost in Denver, which no longer resembles in any way the team that won 57 games under George Karl two years ago. Consider Brian Shaw, barely a year into his head-coaching career, already on the hot seat.
On Tuesday, Bryant set the dubious NBA record for most missed field goal attempts in league history. Could anyone currently in the league challenge his mark? Perhaps. Kevin Durant was actually ahead of Bryant's pace through the same age at the conclusion of last season, with Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James not far behind Bryant at identical points.

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However, James in particular and also Anthony and Durant have slowed their rates of misses at around the same age as Bryant's increased dramatically after the Shaquille O'Neal trade. The growing emphasis on efficient shot selection for high scorers will make it difficult to top Bryant's total, to which he's still adding.
While it didn't cost the Memphis Grizzlies, who held on to beat the Lakers on Tuesday, they were the latest team to fall victim to a five-second inbounds violation in the late stages of a game this season. If referees continue to be quick on the trigger with five-second calls, it might affect coaching strategy. With advancing the ball with a timeout carrying a high risk of a turnover, dribbling the ball upcourt becomes a better alternative.
Update on my prediction that the Splash Brothers, Golden State Warriors teammates Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, will make more 3-pointers than the Lakers this season: After making eight triples Thursday night, Curry (23) and Thompson (22) now lead the Lakers 45-44 through eight games apiece.

:pimp: :pimp: :pimp:
 
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This is relevant because few teams are more in need of young talent than the Lakers. Because they have repeatedly used draft picks in trades, the Lakers don't have a single player on their roster acquired through the draft between Bryant (1996) and Robert Sacre (2012). Despite Bryant's continued presence, the Lakers have given 22.3 percent of their minutes to players added through the draft. (In fairness, this number would be somewhat higher if not for injuries to Ryan Kelly and 2014 lottery pick Julius Randle.)

For contrast, the Lakers can look at the opposite sideline during Friday's game against the San Antonio Spurs. More than half of the Spurs' minutes -- 56.9 percent -- have gone to players they added through the draft. Besides the veteran core of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, San Antonio has added starters Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter to extend its run and win another championship while the Lakers have slipped into the lottery.

As the Lakers plot their comeback, adding contributors through the draft will be crucial. Using cap space to sign free agents requires stripping the roster, and for the Lakers to have any depth around the stars they might be able to lure, they'll need to get contributions from players on cost-controlled rookie contracts. If Randle and a potential 2015 lottery pick turn into quality starters, that will make the Lakers far more appealing to free agents who don't want to wait for the team to build a supporting cast.


Sooooooooo much of this sounds familiar.

So, so much. :lol:
 
Holmes:
A leap of faith in Los Angeles

Before a recent game, Byron Scott said he told his players "doubt kills dreams." The Los Angeles Lakers coach was just getting warmed up.

"I told them that I have no doubt that we will win a championship in my tenure here as head coach," Scott told ESPN.com this week, "because I know this organization. But I do know it's going to take some patience. It's a process."

Wait. A championship?

"I agree," Lakers star Kobe Bryant told ESPN.com when asked about Scott's remark.

Why?

"Faith," Bryant continued. "The Lakers' track record. This organization is really good about turning around, period. We don't have many dry years."

Now in their 66th season, the Lakers have made a league-high 60 playoff appearances, have reached a league-high 31 NBA finals and have won 16 titles, the second-most behind the Boston Celtics (17) and 10 more than the third-place Chicago Bulls (6). Perhaps more than any other franchise in professional sports, success is expected, and often achieved.

Until now.

The Lakers lost the most games in franchise history last season (55) and, at 1-7 entering Friday's home matchup with the San Antonio Spurs, are off to their worst start since the 1950s, when the team was based in Minnesota.

Steve Nash (back) and Julius Randle (leg) are out for the season. Ryan Kelly (hamstring) and Nick Young (hand) are also out. And Wayne Ellington will be out indefinitely after his father was shot and killed earlier this week.

Scott has harped on defense all season, but as of Thursday, the Lakers have the worst defensive efficiency by any team in the past 30 seasons, allowing 114.5 points per 100 possessions.

Scott and Bryant may think banner No. 17 is right around the corner, but a title has never seemed more distant for the Lakers.

"I think all that good luck has abandoned them and all the bad luck that they should have been getting during that time has come to visit them at once," Lakers Hall of Fame center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar said.

"It's going to take them a couple years to get out of that rut."


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The silver lining for most fans is the draft. The Lakers will lose their first-round pick to the Phoenix Suns if it falls outside the top five. So the more the Lakers lose, the better their chances of keeping it.

"It's a lottery," said Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak said during a recent interview in his office. "It doesn't mean anything. I mean, last year, we got the seventh pick in the draft, and to me, it felt like we lost every game. I don't know how you lose more games to try to get a better pick. I just don't know how you do it."

One need only look at the Philadelphia 76ers for a master class in the art of fielding a roster that has little to no chance of competing. But the mention of "tanking" to Kupchak results in a lightning-quick reply.

"We would never do that," he said. "This business doesn't work that way."

As proof, Kupchak noted how late last season, when every loss meant a better chance at a higher lottery pick, the Lakers won their final two games, both on the road. Had they lost those games, they would've tied for the fourth-worst record in the league; instead, they had the sixth-worst.

"Our feeling is, you can't manipulate [the system]," Kupchak said. "It's bad Karma. First of all, just the whole concept of talking to your coaches and sending a message that, 'We want to lose,' it's just so counter to professional sports and to the way that this organization thinks."

He added, "I don't even know where you begin. Do you call a coach in and say, 'Listen, I want to talk to you about something. We've got to lose these games.' And then if that coach leaves your organization in three years, and he says, 'Yeah, the Lakers wanted to lose ...'

"I mean, it doesn't work," Kupchak said. "And if you did do that, the Karma would be such that you'd probably end up with the 14th pick. But the message to send out is not the right message.

"We're always going to try to win. We did that last year and we felt that we got a great player [in Randle]. He got hurt, but we felt we got a great player."

Of course, luck isn't the real reason the Lakers were so good for so long.

Even Abdul-Jabbar said so, crediting management.

"They made their good luck by being smart and growing the team," he said.

Kupchak cited many of the historic moves made by the franchise, such as Jerry West acquiring 17-year-old Kobe Bryant during the 1996 offseason.

"Jerry did not say, 'Oh, I think we're going to get lucky here,'" Kupchak said. "I mean, Jerry knew. He knew this kid was going to be able to play."

Eighteen years later, Bryant (again) leads the league in scoring, at 27.5 points per game; no player in NBA history has ever averaged at least 26 points per game in their age-36 or older season.

"I think he's very motivated because of the way (ESPN) ranked him, being the 40th(-best) player in NBA and he's leading the league in scoring," said former Lakers big man Pau Gasol.

"He's probably going to do that throughout the year. So I know he'll be fine but obviously (the situation's) not ideal for him. But he'll figure it out and he'll weather the storm."

But Bryant, who missed all but six games last season because of injuries, is averaging a league-high 24.5 field goal attempts per game, almost five more than the next closest player. He has also taken 196 of his team's 676 field goal attempts this season, or about 29 percent, the highest among all NBA players this season.

He is also missing 15 shots per game and one about every 2 minutes, 20 seconds, which, if it held up, would be the fastest rate since the merger, besting Freeman Williams' rate of missing a shot about every 2 minutes, 57 seconds.

"We've been through this before with him, several times, where it's shooting at a high rate, or however you want to say it," Kupchak said. "To me, it's just a great player trying to figure out what his teammates can and can't do under a new system."

Overall, Kupchak praised Bryant, calling him their main bright spot thus far.

"If there is a silver lining that is really up front and out front, it's that Kobe can still play at a high level," Kupchak said. "You can see him making adjustments, still shaking of the rust - and maybe some of it is rust, maybe some of it is maybe being 36. You can see him still getting a feel.

"But the bottom line is, he can still play at a very high level. He competes. He can go get shots. He can still defend. He can play big minutes. ... And he's fun to watch. And he's fun to watch compete and he still wants to win. The fire is still there."


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Gasol feels for his former team.

"It's hard to see (them) struggle, what's been my team for many years, and a franchise that I love, and fans that I love," said Gasol, who left the Lakers this past offseason after six and a half seasons and two championships to join the Bulls.

"But obviously there's a lot of new players, a lot of new faces, a new coach, a lot of new things, and the Western Conference is extremely competitive."

Gasol said he believes they'll improve, but until then, "you just have to be patient."

Have the Lakers ever had to be patient? Really patient? Words like "process" are being used daily by Scott and his players, but that's not a familiar one for this team or its fans.

"The adjustment for me is just the patience part of it, which is sometimes tough, because I'm so used to winning," said Scott, who spent 11 seasons with the franchise as a player. "And the people here are so used to winning. And the people in this organization are so used to winning."

All around Scott, whether at Staples Center or at their practice facility in El Segundo, there are reminders of how far he has to go: photos, banners, retired jerseys.

Championship trophies line the office window of Lakers executive vice president Jeanie Buss, overlooking the practice court.

"Kobe has earned five of those. I earned three of those," said Scott, a member of the Showtime era. "We want our guys to see that because it's important for them to see what this organization is all about."

Of course, the team could make one or two landmark moves and be a contender again, like they have in the past. In the interim, it's unclear what path they'll have to take, or exactly how long it might be, until they add another banner -- or at least make the playoffs.

"Just trust the management upstairs, man," Bryant said. "They're really good about what they do."

That's his faith talking. His trust in the organization's track record. His belief that they can turnaround everything in a snap, that here, dry runs never last.
Link
 
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Waiting to hear it first sb sb on tonight's predictions.

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had pants knows :nthat:

kobe goes into 'no hell we losing tonight' mode. lin minimizes turnovers. ed kills duncan down low. boozer had at least 3 'and 1' spurts. sacres head blows up from hype overload. lakers with the upset. you heard it here first.

lakers 97
spurs 95

:smokin
 
On the Lakers: 11/13

Ryen Russillo shares his thoughts on the state of the Lakers, Los Angeles' future and more. Russillo says that the Lakers have the worst roster in the NBA.
Link
 
worst than I have been delivered thread lol. LA wilding out now, with that much faith, Marc Jackson seemed more doable. lol

choir boys
 
"We would never do that," he said. "This business doesn't work that way."

As proof, Kupchak noted how late last season, when every loss meant a better chance at a higher lottery pick, the Lakers won their final two games, both on the road. Had they lost those games, they would've tied for the fourth-worst record in the league; instead, they had the sixth-worst.

"Our feeling is, you can't manipulate [the system]," Kupchak said. "It's bad Karma. First of all, just the whole concept of talking to your coaches and sending a message that, 'We want to lose,' it's just so counter to professional sports and to the way that this organization thinks."

He added, "I don't even know where you begin. Do you call a coach in and say, 'Listen, I want to talk to you about something. We've got to lose these games.' And then if that coach leaves your organization in three years, and he says, 'Yeah, the Lakers wanted to lose ...'

Mitch :pimp:
 
I don't know why they keep killing the jerseys. They got it rite last year with the black Lakers uniform then had to mess them up this year by adding sleeves. Those Xmas day jerseys look like swapmeet jerseys...




^^[emoji]128077[/emoji] Lin minimizing turnovers......
Dude can't dribble the ball.... I hate that guy on my fav squad so much..
 
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at this point if you have kept up with the thread for the past year there are really no new opinions left to uncover 
 
at this point if you have kept up with the thread for the past year there are really no new opinions left to uncover 

Exactly why I felt coming into the year that everyone would get along much better this year. We covered everything last year, and during the summer, all the scenarios, best/worst case, there's no real surprises left to be had. So we won't have the bickering we did last year, and so far that's played out. Everyone knows their view, and stays in their lanes. :smokin

It's depressing going down to the bottom for a while, but if Mitch plays this right, he'll get us back in great shape within a year or two. (provided we can get some health luck in the coming months)
 
lol.its easy to craft what ifs, especially after the fact. i dunno about playing it right because pretty much this good bye kobe tour looks a little disappointing. well, we knew it was gonna be this way.
 
at this point if you have kept up with the thread for the past year there are really no new opinions left to uncover 

Exactly why I felt coming into the year that everyone would get along much better this year. We covered everything last year, and during the summer, all the scenarios, best/worst case, there's no real surprises left to be had. So we won't have the bickering we did last year, and so far that's played out. Everyone knows their view, and stays in their lanes. :smokin

It's depressing going down to the bottom for a while, but if Mitch plays this right, he'll get us back in great shape within a year or two. (provided we can get some health luck in the coming months)

I like when you make posts like that, serious :smokin
 
I feel like they have enough bigs that adding Tyrus won't help with the stealth tank...

...unless they're trying to trim Ed Davis' minutes more.
 
I mean, we might as well give Kwame a call if we want to trim Ed's minutes and keep his dollars low. :lol:

Might get a little obvious tho, Kwame and Booz playin 40 minutes a night, lookin all Philly out there.
 
I'll be honest. Whether davis plays 20 mins a night or 36 mins a night..he's still gonna command a deal similar to Jordan hills...there's no way around it. I say start him next to hill and let hill be the pick n pop PF or occasionally work the block...
 
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