OFFICIAL 2015 M!AM! DOLPH!NS SEASON THREAD (6-10) / NEXT:

[Deleted member 37754]

Told ya

Yea... you did. I figured Dolphins were in the mix. But not as close as the damn agent thinking he was set in Miami.

Would have been the best off-season ever. Still a damn good one none the less.

 

[finnns2003]

Damn, so close.

 

[toast1985]

Tom Brady suspended for 4 games. If it stands, can Miami take advantage of the brady-less Pats?

 

[CP1708]

Tom Brady suspended for 4 games. If it stands, can Miami take advantage of the brady-less Pats?

They started 2-2 last year, and looked dead. Still didn't stop them.

I look at these 4 games as extra rest for Tom, and then he can come in and get in a groove thru Oct-November, and be up and runnin perfectly for December.


The question is, no Vereen, no Ridley, no Wilfork, no Revis, no Browner, can they overcome all that? That's what we need to attack.

 

[757bred]

Looking at their schedule, they could realistically start 1-3. If we get off to a good start (which according to our schedule we could), we may have a chance for contending for the division, even if Brady rallies the troops when he returns.

 

[finnns2003]

Would love 3-1 to counter their 2-2/1-3 start. If this suspension holds of course.

 

[toast1985]

Tanne isn't going anywhere anytime soon

 

[CP1708]

6/96.

 

[Deleted member 37754]

[COLOR=#red]CANNOT be mad at that... Well done Dolphins. Say what you want but they have figured out these signings man. [/COLOR]

 

[CP1708]

6/96 is the total with his rookie year still, I think, and the extension is

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 4m4 minutes ago
The extension #Dolphins gave QB Ryan Tannehill is 4 years for $77M, per source ($19.25M per year). $45M in guarantees, $25M fully guaranteed

 

[CP1708]

Chris Towers ‏@CTowersCBS 26m26 minutes ago
ProFootballFocus had Tannehill rated as No. 11 QB last season. He was 13th out of 25 qualified QB's in deep passing accuracy.

Chris Towers ‏@CTowersCBS 24m24 minutes ago
He threw deep less often than any QB, which is an issue. However, he was also pressured 6th-most often, and was very good under pressure.

 

[CP1708]

Omar Kelly ‏@OmarKelly 3m3 minutes ago
There are only 4 starting QBs whose passer rating has improved each of last 3 seasons.Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford & Ryan Tannehill

Omar Kelly ‏@OmarKelly 1m1 minute ago
Tannehill is 6th in NFL in passing yds in first 3 seasons of his career in NFL history. He's behind Luck, Manning, Marino, Dalton & Newton.

Andrew Abramson ‏@AbramsonPBP
#Dolphins Tannehill deal is big, but only makes him NFL's No. 14 paid QB... Luck, Wilson, Newton to surpass him soon

Folks. He will be the 17th highest paid QB in a few weeks/months.

Then we have......

BrianCat @BrianCat13 · 3h 3 hours ago
Only 5 QB's in the AFC are clearly better than Tannehill: Manning (39) Brady (3 Rivers (33) Roethlisberger (33) and Luck. Remember that.

Peyton/Tom have 1-2 years, if that? Rivers and Ben will be 35+ by then. Luck and Tannehill the only ones in their prime. Obviously Luck is way better, but Luck will be the highest paid player in the NFL, and Ryan will be makin 16 mil a year?


There is NO WAY, anyone can knock this deal. I don't care if he throws 38 INT's this year, this contract is a bargain compared to the rest of the league setting.

 

[finnns2003]

38 INT's, Omar will quit the Sun Sentinel if that happens

 

[CP1708]

That almost makes me wish he threw all 38 then.
Regardless of what happens, we got our guy. We got weapons. And we have pieces of the Oline. Next year, rd 1-2, OG must be targeted. Must. Gotta complete the Oline perfectly.

This year we can deal with patchwork, after that, gotta be REAL serious about it. AFC gonna be wiiiiiiiide open with Peyton-Tom on the way out.

 

[h3at23]

Ryan Tannehill's deal: Low-risk, high-reward for Dolphins, and the QB

The Miami Dolphins, as a practical matter, bought low on quarterback Ryan Tannehill with a four-year contract extension and have protected the upside on the prospect while retaining substantial flexibility should he not develop. In short, they own him low the next three seasons with the option to buy high the following three seasons should they see fit.

That's the only true way to evaluate this extension.

The macro view: Tannehill signed a deal worth a max of $96M over six seasons, and he could get as much as $77M in new money over the four additional years added to his contract. But he'll have to earn it, and keep earning it, with his performance. If he's a middling quarterback, the Dolphins could walk away, after two years, or then after three years, or again after any other season beyond. If he turns out to be who they drafted him to be, when he was selected eighth overall in 2012, then he'll be rewarded handsomely, making $19M a year on the back end of this deal. But as things stand today, for a promising quarterback but one who is still working through limitations, that's a significant if.

Tannehill already was set to make $18.27M the next two years -- the final season of his rookie contract (2015) and a fifth-year option for 2016 that the Dolphins previously executed (that $16.2M option was guaranteed for injury only at this time). His new contract calls for $21.5M fully guaranteed at the time of signing (payable over those same two years), according to sources, so that is basically taking a two-year total that was currently only guaranteed for injury only and now making ifully guaranteed and sweetening the pot a little on the front end. The deal calls for $45M in total injury guarantees, but that is not a protection should he be released because of production or cap purposes before then.

By March of 2016 -- early in the 2016 league year -- Tannehill would have another $3.5M in guaranteed money triggered for the following season. As of today Miami already had his rights through 2016 if they want him ‎(via the 2015 base and the 2016 fifth-year option) so they aren't actually chipping away at additional years until the third year of this deal, and even then they are buying him in 2017 dollars at well below what the 2015 exclusive rights franchise tag was, much less what the 2017 QB franchise tag will be.

The Dolphins would pay him $14.475M for the 2017 season -- which will be well, well below what the exclusive franchise tag figure would be by that time (possibly above of $25M by then pending other big extensions to top passers), and that season (2017, is the first year of Tannnehill's free-agency the team has now secured the right to. At his point he will have earned $39.5M over three years -- an average of $13.15M a season. Good money, to be sure, but we're talking Sam Bradford money. The Dolphins aren't breaking the bank here. They are mitigating risk.

The big money could come in the form of the final three years -- backloaded -- where Tannehill could earn $57M total between 2018-2020, or an average of $19M per. But he still will have to earn it. This is essentially a deal that purchased one additional year of Tannehill's service time than what Miami already had the rights to, and then is a separate contract on the back end where, following 2017, the Dolphins could go year to year with him depending on his progress. In that regard, it's much, much, much more like an Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick deal, than anything Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco or Ben Roethlisberger signed the past few years.

So you can understand why both sides did it. But the actual cash commitment to Tannehill, in today's dollars, is insignificant compared to what it would have been like the next two years. And in return they can control his rights for up to an additional four years, at the team's discretion. It's another way to continue to create an upper-middle class of NFL quarterbacks, if you will. But in terms of the next wave of quarterbacks awaiting mega-deals, be it veterans like Eli Manning and Philip Rivers or youngsters like Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, this contract won't move the needle at all or have any real ramifications on the kinds of deals those men are seeking.

Miami protects precious cap space -- at a premium given the big spending ways of new football boss Mike Tannenbaum -- and greatly protects its interests moving forward in reasonable 2015 dollars without running the risk of having to pay our exorbitant 2017 dollars for Tannehill should he have played out his 2016 option in outstanding form and had a massive franchise tag fee to aid his negotiating cause. In what has been a strong offseason for the Dolphins, the best of any in recent memory, this could end up being the best move of all, and it's decidedly low risk.

Jason La Canfora


This is a great breakdown! I LOVE this deal for us!!!

 

[finnns2003]

Impressive if Tannenbaum and Hickey are working in tandem on all of this. Total opposite of a Jeff Ireland offseason.

 

[ognikehead85]

 

[CP1708]

View media item 1540764

The Dolphins have secured their quarterback of the near future. Now they just need to figure out if that future was worth locking up. Miami already had starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill signed through 2016, but on Monday it came to terms on a contract extension that could keep him in town through 2020 and pay him up to $96 million. The structure and real value of the contract, however, make it clear the Dolphins are still evaluating their young quarterback. In fact, the deal vaguely evokes a disastrous figure from a member of this organization’s recent past.

You can basically ignore those numbers above. The chances that Tannehill will play this deal out to that end are slim. If he flops, he’ll never see the end of the contract. If he continues to develop, the Dolphins will almost surely restructure the deal and give him an extension in 2019 or so. This is a contract designed by vice-president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum and general manager Dennis Hickey to basically secure Tannehill’s immediate future; simultaneously, it leaves the Dolphins with a series of options down the line that will allow them to retain their quarterback at a below-market rate and use the leverage from that rate to negotiate friendly terms on his next contract extension.

To understand what the Dolphins did, let’s start with the hand they were previously holding. Entering the offseason, Tannehill was about to enter the final year of his rookie deal, which had a total cap hit of just over $4 million. That figure was entirely guaranteed, and most of it was the remnants of the $7.7 million signing bonus he received upon entering the league. In April, however, Miami elected to pick up Tannehill’s fifth-year option, which would have come in at $16.2 million. That figure was guaranteed for injury, so while Tannehill would have received the money if he were to have suffered a career-altering injury in 2015, the Dolphins would have had the ability to cut Tannehill for poor play before 2016 without owing him anything.

With that leverage, the Dolphins were able to claw meaningful concessions out of Tannehill in the case that he does turn into a superstar. Reports suggest he’s getting $45 million in guaranteed money, but in the NFL, guarantees aren’t always guarantees. Jason La Canfora of CBS reports that Tannehill will immediately receive $21.5 million in fully guaranteed money for the first two years of the deal; the Dolphins must then decide in March 2016 whether to fully guarantee an additional $3.5 million of Tannehill’s salary for the 2016 season. That March deadline will repeat itself for the 2017 ($14.5 million guaranteed) and 2018 ($5.5 million guaranteed) seasons. The final three years of Tannehill’s deal, 2018 to 2020, come in at an average of $19 million, which the Dolphins can bail on without penalty.

So what’s the right way to think about this deal? If you assume the Dolphins were already going to keep Tannehill in 2015 and 2016, it’s basically giving Tannehill about $7 million in new guaranteed money. In return, the Dolphins are likely getting extra cap space in 2016, where they already had a staggering $164 million committed after signing Ndamukong Suh this spring. They’re also getting the option to pay Tannehill for 2017 at a well-below-market rate and for 2018-2020 at a rate closer to (but still likely below) league average.

That’s a very logical move by the Dolphins, who now retain the upside of having a possible top-10 quarterback signed for reasonable money over the next six seasons. If Tannehill continues to grow and his market value increases, the Dolphins don’t have to worry about a Joe Flacco situation. With Flacco, the Ravens were stuck with no negotiating leverage at the end of his rookie deal and were forced to give their Super Bowl–winning passer an onerous contract extension that has materially affected their planning over the past couple of seasons.

Flacco’s cap hit almost doubles from $14.5 million to $28.5 million next year, which would leave him with the second-largest cap hit in football, coincidentally behind Suh. The Ravens will likely be forced to either restructure Flacco’s deal (which will create further cap problems in the years to come) or give Flacco another contract extension to get out from under the first one. Neither option is especially appealing, and you can see why the Dolphins would want to avoid that sort of situation by giving up a little extra money now.

The worst-case scenario is exactly what Tannenbaum went through during the final days of his run with the Jets. After New York’s failed brief pursuit of Peyton Manning during the 2012 offseason, Tannenbaum responded to the news by basically giving his incumbent starting quarterback a hefty contract extension as an apology. That quarterback, of course, was Mark Sanchez.

The structure of Sanchez’s rookie deal, signed before the current CBA, was different from Tannehill’s, but the concept of the extension was roughly the same. The Jets didn’t owe Sanchez any more guaranteed money, but the extension turned likely-to-be-earned figures into full guarantees totaling $20.5 million over the two ensuing years of the deal. Tannenbaum’s Jets then had three annual options on Sanchez at cap-friendly figures of $12.5 million, running through the 2014-16 seasons. The deal also cleared up $6.4 million in cap space for the Jets.

The only way this sort of contract really fails is if the quarterback in question has a disastrous first season as part of the new deal and isn’t worth evaluating in his second year. That is, as you may remember, exactly what happened with Sanchez in 2012. His numbers continued to decline, and he was eventually benched during a game in December for Greg McElroy.

The Jets unquestionably would have cut Sanchez after the year, and under the terms of his rookie deal, they could have done so while saving $5 million on their 2013 cap. Instead, they owed Sanchez $12.9 million because of the extension, a figure that would have risen to $17.6 million had they cut their starter. They were stuck keeping Sanchez on the roster and attempting to win with him around, a move that became irrelevant when he suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason.

Tannenbaum wasn’t around for that drama. He was fired by the Jets after the 2012 season, almost assuredly in part because his bet on Sanchez had failed. That’s part of what makes this Tannehill deal so fascinating; Tannenbaum is making an essentially identical bet on a quarterback at a similar point of that passer’s career. It’s hard to imagine that it will fail as suddenly and destructively as Sanchez’s extension failed in New York, and I wouldn’t suggest that the Dolphins should have shied away from this sort of deal just because the Sanchez contract imploded, but there is some risk attached.

To the Tannehilt

Dolphins fans will say Tannehill is further along in his development than Sanchez was, and while I agree with that sentiment, it’s also not unfair to say Sanchez was perceived in some circles to be about as good of a quarterback at the time of his extension. Wins, you know. Sanchez received some undue praise for his 27-20 regular-season record (and his 4-2 mark in the playoffs) during his first three years in the league, ignoring that much of that came down to the work of his running game and defense.

Tannehill has no such argument in his locker. The Texas A&M product has gone 23-25 during his first three seasons, and his performance over that time frame has also roughly been around league-average. Among the 22 quarterbacks who have thrown 1,000 passes or more over the last three seasons, Tannehill surrounds the middle of the pack in each of Pro-Football-Reference.com’s index statistics. He’s 16th in completion percentage, 14th in interception percentage, and 19th in passer rating.

The other number we often use to assess a quarterback is the one that concerns me with Tannehill. He’s last in yards per attempt in the past three seasons, averaging a league-low 6.8. Throw in Tannehill’s propensity for taking sacks — which improved last year behind a massively rebuilt offensive line, but not by much — and he also finishes last in the Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt Index. The only passers since 2000 to throw 1,000 passes over their first three seasons and post a worse ANY/A+ are Sam Bradford, Sanchez, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Christian Ponder. Not overwhelming company.

Tannehill backers will note that his completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and passer rating have steadily improved over his three pro seasons. That’s promising, but again, there are reasonable concerns about the factors that aren’t being considered in those numbers. Tannehill’s usage rate went up dramatically as the Dolphins were unable to run the ball in 2013, resulting in a massive attempt spike that masked an otherwise stagnant second season.

And while Tannehill’s numbers did rise impressively across the board last season, I wonder how much of that amounts to the change in his offensive scheme. While running a West Coast offense under Mike Sherman in Miami during the 2012 and 2013 seasons, Tannehill rarely got the ball out on short throws and screens, which was curious given the issues with the offensive line. Tannehill averaged 8.7 yards in the air per pass attempt, which was the 12th-highest figure in football.

Last year, under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in a hybrid attack, Tannehill threw screens more frequently, and his average yards in the air per attempt plummeted. The average Tannehill pass traveled just 7.4 yards in the air, which was 28th in the league. Only Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Blake Bortles, and Alex Smith threw shorter average passes.

A difference of 1.3 yards per throw doesn’t seem like much, but it does help explain a fair amount of the spike in his completion percentage, which rose from 60.4 percent in 2013 to 66.4 percent in 2014. Charting numbers also agree with those considerations; Tannehill virtually never underthrew his receivers and had the fourth-lowest rate of “bad throws,” per Football Outsiders, last season.

Naturally, then, the fear with Tannehill is that he isn’t doing enough to make opponents worry about him as a downfield passer. His performance on those deep throws did decline last year; after posting the league’s 21st-best QBR on throws 15 yards or more in the air between 2012 and 2013, Tannehill’s 81.9 mark was 26th in the league last year. While he certainly has all the arm strength he needs and is capable of some downright magical downfield plays, he hasn’t scared teams getting the ball deep.

It’s fair to say that most observers point some of those problems toward the now-departed Mike Wallace. I’m not so sure. Wallace caught only 12 of the 36 deep passes thrown to him by Tannehill last year, but he also didn’t drop any of them (per ESPN Stats & Information). Miami’s other receivers dropped a combined six of Tannehill’s 28 other pass attempts of that distance. In all, with 5.9 percent of his deep passes dropped by receivers last year, only three other quarterbacks (Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Drew Brees) had their bombs dropped more frequently than Tannehill. Tannehill’s drop rate on those throws in 2012-13 (4.4 percent) was far closer to league average (4.2 percent), so those 2014 drops are likely a fluke that should resolve themselves this year.

There are certainly other things to like about Tannehill. He’s a quietly effective runner, more so within the zone-read than as a scrambler. The Dolphins employed the read-option on 44.3 percent of their rushing plays last year, which was right behind the league-leading Eagles (44.5 percent). They quietly averaged the second-most yards per rushing attempt (4.7) in football last season, and on Tannehill’s 27 zone-read keepers, he averaged a whopping 10.3 yards per carry and picked up 14 first downs.

As I think about this deal, though, I think more and more about Sanchez. That has little to do with Tannehill as a player and more with how each of those quarterbacks was perceived. Sanchez was a middling quarterback who managed to convince a meaningful subset of the league (including his general manager) that he was great because his team had won a bunch of football games. When the team around him collapsed, Sanchez wasn’t able to elevate his game, and the wheels quickly fell off Gang Green.

Tannehill has his strengths and weaknesses, but as the Dolphins are still in the process of evaluating him as a passer, they’re still evaluating themselves as a franchise. Tannehill has been a league-average passer for a league-average team for three seasons, and it’s fair to wonder whether Tannenbaum thinks his new roster is going to take a leap forward into the playoffs. Hopes should be higher after adding Suh and hearing the news about Tom Brady’s four-game suspension, but this is still a roster with major question marks on both sides of the football. This is a wary, measured step in the direction of committing toward Tannehill, and simultaneously, it’s a wary, measured step for the Dolphins toward believing that they’re ready to take on bigger things in the AFC.

 

[finnns2003]

Hopes should be higher after adding Suh and hearing the news about Tom Brady’s four-game suspension, but this is still a roster with major question marks on both sides of the football.

And this is exactly what I'm afraid of. That the LG/RG positions are still huge question marks, if Albert will be 100%, what will become of the secondary, etc.

First season in a long time where I have no idea if we're a 6-10 team or a 10-6 team.

 

[toast1985]

And this is exactly what I'm afraid of. That the LG/RG positions are still huge question marks, if Albert will be 100%, what will become of the secondary, etc.

First season in a long time where I have no idea if we're a 6-10 team or a 10-6 team.

I feel like this every year. But I do have much more optimism. We were a top 6 secondary last year, with a majority of the same pieces. The LB core was **** last year, so at least we have fresh faces in their this year to earn their keep.

Guard play will be a problem this year, but hopefully we can overcome with better reads from Tanne, and WRs getting into their routes much quicker.

 

[finnns2003]

@PatMcAfeeShow

Well today's market showed that a 25-25 record gets you 96 million American dollars... Andrew's about to own a team I think #Tannehill #Luck

 

[h3at23]

I ADDED THAT TO THE FRONT PAGE!!!


#SinceDecember!987

 

[h3at23]

I love this pic that Chris McClain posted on twitter in response to Ellerbe saying Miami didn't have his back and the fans basically suck

Chris McCainVerified account
‏@DolphinEret
When the city got your back [emoji]128077[/emoji][emoji]127998[/emoji][emoji]128077[/emoji][emoji]127998[/emoji][emoji]128074[/emoji][emoji]127998[/emoji][emoji]128074[/emoji][emoji]127998[/emoji][emoji]9994[/emoji][emoji]127998[/emoji][emoji]9994[/emoji][emoji]127998[/emoji] #305 #ERET #CM58 #58BEGRE58T #PhinsUp #FinsUp
View media item 1552964

 

[toast1985]

Ellerbe is trash bags. He woefully underachieved throughout his tenure in Miami. He will feel salty about the fans of New Orleans when they're not showing him "support" soon after

 

[CP1708]

Jeff Ireland effect still on the Miami Dolphins
The narrative surrounding today's Miami Dolphins is that with new general manager Dennis Hickey's draft and offseason acquisitions in 2014 and Hickey's and new executive vice president Mike Tannenbaum's draft and offseason acquisitions in 2015, the Dolphins are replenished with fresh talent from this braintrust.

In other words, the influence former general manager Jeff Ireland had on the roster has been removed. Some more unforgiving souls would contend the stench has dissipated.

That seemed more true than ever this offseason when practically every significant move Ireland made in 2013, his final offseason with the team, was undone.

Mike Wallace, signed in 2013, was traded.

Brian Hartline, given a big contract extension in 2013, was cut.

Brandon Gibson, signed in 2013, was cut.

Dannell Ellerbe, signed in 2013, was traded.

Phillip Wheeler, signed in 2013, was cut.

Dion Jordan, drafted No. 3 overall in the 2013 draft, has been suspended for a year by the NFL for violating the league substance abuse policy.

Much of what Ireland did in 2013 has, poof, gone away.

But that's simply not the complete story.

That is only part of true portrait of these past two Dolphins offseasons because, indeed, much of what the Dolphins new braintrust has done is also to embrace what Ireland did.

The Dolphins this offseason made a franchise quarterback commitment to Ryan Tannehill, extending his contract through 2020 and paying him $96 million, including $21.5 million in fully guaranteed money. Tannehill is the first Dolphins quarterback since Dan Marino the team has committed to for the long term. He's their man.

And he was Jeff Ireland's draft pick in 2012.

The Dolphins this offseason made a commitment to center Mike Pouncey, extending his contract through the 2020 season. Pouncey practices hard. Plays hard. Is a team leader in every sense, the Dolphins believe. He's their man. And he was Jeff Ireland's draft pick in 2011.

The truth is the Dolphins are going to be relying as much and expecting as much from Jeff Ireland's players than Hickey and Tannenbaum's.

The linebacker corps? Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins are Jeff Ireland draft picks, the latter in the 2013 fourth round.

The cornerbacks? Brent Grimes was a Jeff Ireland free agent acquisition and Jamar Taylor is going to get his chance to win the starting job after being a Jeff Ireland second-round pick in 2013.

The starting running back? Many people are excited about rookie Jay Ajayi. But Lamar Miller is an incumbent 1,000-yard rusher and the more likely starter. And he was a Jeff Ireland fourth-round pick in 2012.

The team wasn't thrilled about losing tight end Charles Clay, a Jeff Ireland draft pick, to the Buffalo Bills in free agency. But when they announced they would not match Buffalo's offer sheet to Clay, they let it be known they were confident in Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims as their top two tight ends. Cameron signed this offseason. Sims is a 2013 fourth-round pick ... by Jeff Ireland.

I had a team executive kid with me Wednesday about how much I criticize the idea of Dallas Thomas being the starting left guard for the start of training camp late next month. (Yes, folks, they read every word). The Dolphins are going in that direction, apparently, no matter how much I criticize the idea. The Dolphins are comfortable with the idea of Dallas Thomas as their starting left guard. Dallas Thomas was a 2013 third-round pick ... by Jeff Ireland.

Olivier Vernon? Jeff Ireland.

Derrick Shelby? Jeff Ireland.

Don Jones? Jeff Ireland.

Will Davis? Jeff Ireland.

Rishard Matthews? Jeff Ireland.

The point is the Dolphins seem headed in a positive direction following Ireland's departure. Fans -- you -- seem generally satisfied with the team Hickey and Tannenbaum have put together. You're optimistic.

The truth is if you are satisfied and optimistic, then you like the team Hickey, Tannenbaum and Jeff Ireland put together.