OFFICIAL 2015 M!AM! DOLPH!NS SEASON THREAD (6-10) / NEXT:
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Old read, but shows a couple of points that have been missed thru the year.
So just what the hell is with PFF’s quarterback rankings? Ryan Tannehill is No. 3 despite a passer rating in the 70′s while Peyton Manning (with a league-leading 126.9 passer rating, six touchdowns and no interceptions) is down in 15th. Clearly PFF has been sniffing glue, right?
Well, not exactly. The PFF grades and thus the rankings aren’t a metric. They’re not some complex formula taking into account fifteen various statistics but rather a play by play grading of that player. The grades are not founded on or dependent upon statistics, and that is because stats – especially for quarterbacks – lie all the time.
Let’s talk hypotheticals for a moment. Three quarterbacks can each complete a pass for 50 yards and a touchdown. In the box score each guy will read 1-for-1 for 50 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs.
Player A looks off the safety, splits him and the corner and lands the ball in his receiver’s hands at the 5-yard line without the need to break stride. It’s a picture perfect pass, and to make it even better he did it with pressure steaming towards him.
Player B hits his best playmaker across the middle 5 yards downfield against soft coverage on 3rd-and-long. That athletic receiver breaks a tackle, jukes the safety out of his shoes and outruns the defense the rest of the way for six.
Player C misreads the coverage entirely, throws it straight to a linebacker who displays the kind of hands that got him put on defense in the first place, deflects the ball over his head where it lands in the hands of an uncovered receiver who has a quick sprint to the end zone for the score.
Remember – each guy has exactly the same statistics from the throw, but those passes span the spectrum from NFL Films highlight reel material to something that would show up on ESPN’s C’Mon Man. One is a fantastic throw, the other is a dumpoff that a receiver did the heavy lifting on, and the final throw is a terrible play that got lucky.
Passer rating, passer yards, touchdowns, interceptions – they are all, in essence, measures of how the passing offense as a whole did, not the quarterback. PFF’s grades are different. We grade throws, runs, plays the quarterbacks makes regardless of the outcome. If a quarterback fires a perfect pass that hits his receiver in the hands for what should be a first down, but that receiver drops it – we give the quarterback credit for that throw – statistics don’t.
Tannehill has suffered from seven dropped passes already this season (only Joe Flacco has experienced more). He has lost 113 yards of passes due to drops (at a minimum – that only counts the yards in the air the ball traveled, not the potential yards after the catch the receiver lost by dropping the ball). That is more than any other passer in the league, including Flacco. If you add those plays into his official stats his passer rating jumps twenty points into the 90s. Sure, you could do that for every quarterback, but as we have already pointed out, Tanneill has suffered more than most from his receivers not helping him out.
Let’s take a look at one such great play from Tannehill that went unrewarded by statistics but not by PFF’s grading.
New England @ Miami | Q4, 5:51
The Dolphins won this game comfortably in the end, but with 5:51 remaining in the game Miami was up by just three. With a first down at New England’s 28-yard line they decided it was time for a shot into the end zone, and they had the perfect play drawn up for it.
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After a play action fake TE Dion Sims had been able to work his way across traffic and then turn up field towards the end zone. He had athletic linebacker Jamie Collins trailing him, but there was space there to make the throw. Tannehill let fly from the 38-yard line and dropped the pass perfectly into the waiting hands of Sims, who couldn’t bring it in before being taken to ground by Collins.
This was a touchdown pass, and a fantastic throw, that statistics don’t give Tannehill credit for. This pass alone would push Tannehill’s passer rating for the season into the 80s and make his raw statistics look healthier.
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How about the deep pass to Mike Wallace against Darrelle Revis that Wallace couldn’t get both feet in before stepping out of bounds? At this point in the game the Dolphins were actually trailing by 10 points and Tannehill flicked the ball almost 50-yards in the air, over a trailing Revis and into the back of the end zone.
It’s important to make the point, however, that we’re not trying to say Tannehill has been fantastic. Tannehill has also had some very bad passes that have received heavy downgrades. Also against the Patriots he had a chance to hit another touchdown and instead threw an interception, handing the ball to the Patriots to begin a drive they later scored from.
New England @ Miami | Q2, 13:06
After a play-action fake Tannehill looked to his right, but Revis had blanketed his intended receiver, Brian Hartline, on the play up the right sideline. Tannehill came to his second read and saw Mike Wallace break free on a post pattern because the safety had abandoned the middle of the field while reading his eyes initially.
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This is a relatively routine throw. As you can see, he has a large area of real estate into which he can put the ball and allow Wallace to run away from the coverage, but instead he underthrows it badly, allowing the corner Alfonzo Dennard to intercept it unchallenged.
There’s no denying this is a terrible pass, even with late pressure from Donta Hightower closing from his right, but he was heavily downgraded for it and yet still grades pretty well overall thanks to the balance of positive plays he has made this season.
After two weeks of the season the rankings are what they are – vulnerable to being influenced by a couple of big plays either way, or simply a run of good or bad form over two games that a player will not sustain over sixteen. The difference between being No. 3 in the rankings and No. 15 are probably three or four throws – we are dealing with very small sample sizes here, but we shouldn’t dismiss the play of Tannehill just because the raw numbers don’t match. Are we saying Ryan Tannehill is better than Peyton Manning because he has graded higher over two games? Of course not.
But Tannehill has made tougher throws more frequently and runs an offense far less predicated on three-step drop quick passes. While Manning has averaged less than two seconds per pass, the quickest in the league, Tannehill has the ball in his hands on average half a second longer per passing attempt. That’s a middle of the pack figure but more importantly it’s extra time that pass rush has to get to him and make his life tougher. Manning has felt pressure on just 10 snaps this season while Tannehill has had 25 plays where he has been pressured.
The point here isn’t to try and make out that Ryan Tannehill is in some way better than Peyton Manning. Nobody at PFF believes that and if you made each staff member GM for the day and asked them to pick one of those quarterbacks to win you a game, each and every one would choose Manning. The point is to illustrate that over two games there are reasons why Tannehill has received a higher grade than Manning and a higher grade than his passer rating suggests.
Football is a complex game, with a lot of moving parts and interdependent pieces all trying to come together with the same goal. The Miami passing attack hasn’t been firing on all cylinders – there have been miscues across the board that have resulted in some pretty pedestrian passing statistics for Tannehill, but it’s important that we realize how deceptive those statistics can be and actually look beyond them – to the tape.
When you grade Tannehill throw by throw and then compare him to the rest of the league’s quarterbacks by the same measure, he looks a lot better. Maybe he won’t sustain that over sixteen games, but let’s not dismiss the man’s performance because of his passer rating.
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Vs Patriots W 33-20
At Bills L 29-10
Vs Chiefs L 34-15
At Raiders W 38-14
Vs Packers L 27-24
At Bears W 27-14
At Jags W 27-13
Vs Chargers W 37-0
At Lions L 20-16
Vs Bills W 22-8
At Broncos L 39-36
At Jets W 16-13
Vs Ravens L 28-13
At Patriots L 41-13
Vs Vikings W 37-35
Vs Jets L 37-24
Look at it. Look at allllllllllllll those W's we gave up.
We had Packers 24-20
We had Lions 16-13
We had Broncos 28-17
We had Ravens 10-0
We were at 14-13 at half in NE.
We had Jets 24-14
The Bills game was 16-10 in the 3rd quarter. The Chiefs game is the only game all year we were never really in. And that was a GOLDEN oppurtunity to beat an AFC team, at home, without their best player(s)
Look at all that, and then this......
Ellerbee out week 1
Moreno out week 2
Jones misses first 4 games.
Jordan misses first 6 games
Pouncey misses first 3 games
Albert misses last 6-7 games
Delmas misses last 3-4 games
Will Davis misses 6-7 games
Misi in and out
Finnegan in and out
Clay in and out
Hartline banged up
Taylor in and out
The talent on the roster was all there, give or take a little better injury luck, some still improving players, we'd be in solid shape.
Only difference, our stupid *** coach(es). Better coaching, we finish off the Packers game, the Lions game, maybe even the Broncos game. We damn sure finish the Jets game. Maybe we don't get the Ravens, but that was 10-0 3 minutes before half, and the Ravens at their own 3 freakin yard line. 1 stop, coulda been 10-0 at half, at home, things mighta worked out real nice.
Just tweak a few things, cut a few loose ends, kill Wheeler, Daniel Thomas, Finnegan, maybe Hartline and Gibson, Ellerbee, Delmas, etc. Bring in a couple solid FA's (if they'll come) and have a solid draft, and hope that we don't have 3-4 guys miss the first month over drug ****, or a hip injury to Pouncey, etc. Let the young guys keep growing, and we'll be in every game again, then, it just comes down to the coaches not being freaking stupid. Use timeouts better. Prepare the team better. More 3rd down stops (would be ENORMOUS) Don't miss as many FG's. Get a Red Zone target to help stress opposing defenses. Get a tough runner for 3rd and 1's.
It can be done. Question is, will they? Will they tinker just a bit, and then add to the overall talent group that's close, now just need that push over the top. And then, can they keep guys healthy? Moreno was a killer. Albert late was also a killer, and so was Delmas/Taylor. Ellerbee didn't help.
At Bills L 29-10
Vs Chiefs L 34-15
At Raiders W 38-14
Vs Packers L 27-24
At Bears W 27-14
At Jags W 27-13
Vs Chargers W 37-0
At Lions L 20-16
Vs Bills W 22-8
At Broncos L 39-36
At Jets W 16-13
Vs Ravens L 28-13
At Patriots L 41-13
Vs Vikings W 37-35
Vs Jets L 37-24
Look at it. Look at allllllllllllll those W's we gave up.
We had Packers 24-20
We had Lions 16-13
We had Broncos 28-17
We had Ravens 10-0
We were at 14-13 at half in NE.
We had Jets 24-14
The Bills game was 16-10 in the 3rd quarter. The Chiefs game is the only game all year we were never really in. And that was a GOLDEN oppurtunity to beat an AFC team, at home, without their best player(s)
Look at all that, and then this......
Ellerbee out week 1
Moreno out week 2
Jones misses first 4 games.
Jordan misses first 6 games
Pouncey misses first 3 games
Albert misses last 6-7 games
Delmas misses last 3-4 games
Will Davis misses 6-7 games
Misi in and out
Finnegan in and out
Clay in and out
Hartline banged up
Taylor in and out
The talent on the roster was all there, give or take a little better injury luck, some still improving players, we'd be in solid shape.
Only difference, our stupid *** coach(es).
Better coaching, we finish off the Packers game, the Lions game, maybe even the Broncos game. We damn sure finish the Jets game. Maybe we don't get the Ravens, but that was 10-0 3 minutes before half, and the Ravens at their own 3 freakin yard line. 1 stop, coulda been 10-0 at half, at home, things mighta worked out real nice. Just tweak a few things, cut a few loose ends, kill Wheeler, Daniel Thomas, Finnegan, maybe Hartline and Gibson, Ellerbee, Delmas, etc. Bring in a couple solid FA's (if they'll come) and have a solid draft, and hope that we don't have 3-4 guys miss the first month over drug ****, or a hip injury to Pouncey, etc. Let the young guys keep growing, and we'll be in every game again, then, it just comes down to the coaches not being freaking stupid. Use timeouts better. Prepare the team better. More 3rd down stops (would be ENORMOUS) Don't miss as many FG's. Get a Red Zone target to help stress opposing defenses. Get a tough runner for 3rd and 1's.
It can be done. Question is, will they? Will they tinker just a bit, and then add to the overall talent group that's close, now just need that push over the top. And then, can they keep guys healthy? Moreno was a killer. Albert late was also a killer, and so was Delmas/Taylor. Ellerbee didn't help.
D
Deleted member 37754
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[COLOR=#red]Honestly the Chiefs game is thee biggest thing for me... people keep saying the Dolphins were never in it. Rewatch the game, Literally every big play came from the dump passes to the flats. It was thee worst defensive showing I saw from the Dolphins. Coyle called thee worst game, Smith can't throw 15 yards past the LOS to save his life... but the Dolphins were in three and four deep all game with the flats free all damn game...
that and the Phillip Wheeler on the Packers tight end (i believe it was) ..
Coyle NEEDS to go. Two years he has been misusing this defense.
Players to cut or not re-sign: Hartline, Gibson, Finnegan, Wheeler (Jordan, Misi, Jenkins - good god), DT, Ellerbe, and Cooledge. Let Nate go to, that guy annoys me to no end.
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that and the Phillip Wheeler on the Packers tight end (i believe it was) ..
Coyle NEEDS to go. Two years he has been misusing this defense.
Players to cut or not re-sign: Hartline, Gibson, Finnegan, Wheeler (Jordan, Misi, Jenkins - good god), DT, Ellerbe, and Cooledge. Let Nate go to, that guy annoys me to no end.
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:x Another year I don't want to watch the playoffs because we're not in it
Same teams in the playoffs every year. If only we had a coach and ownership worth a damn
Same teams in the playoffs every year. If only we had a coach and ownership worth a damn
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ProFootballTalk @ProFootballTalk
PFT confirms FOX report Mike Tannenbaum is heading to Dolphins. He'll be the executive V.P. of football operations, starting Feb. 1.
PFT confirms FOX report Mike Tannenbaum is heading to Dolphins. He'll be the executive V.P. of football operations, starting Feb. 1.
D
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[COLOR=#red]Yep...
wonder what his job specifics will be, if he'll actually have the power to fire GM/Coach?[/COLOR]
wonder what his job specifics will be, if he'll actually have the power to fire GM/Coach?[/COLOR]
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lol... the point is what with this hire. Philbin reports directly to Ross, what's the point in this VP move?
When/If Philbin is fired then he can hire the gm/coach he wants I suppose. And he represents a lot of coaches in the league currently.
Who knows, whole season to see what plays out.
When/If Philbin is fired then he can hire the gm/coach he wants I suppose. And he represents a lot of coaches in the league currently.
Who knows, whole season to see what plays out.
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If I wasn't a Jet fan myself, I'd feel bad for you guys. Philbin/Tanny :x
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No way.
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Means nothing folks. It's smart business.
He sucks, we know it. So Miami has power to extend him cheap, now.
If we play well next year, win 10-11 games, he becomes a free agent coach and we have to pay much more to keep him and not disrupt what momentum we build.
If he sucks, you fire him with ease, zero worry.
Non-story fellas.
He sucks, we know it. So Miami has power to extend him cheap, now.
If we play well next year, win 10-11 games, he becomes a free agent coach and we have to pay much more to keep him and not disrupt what momentum we build.
If he sucks, you fire him with ease, zero worry.
Non-story fellas.
D
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I'm not worried about it myself.
If I recall Sporano got an extension the year before he was fired.
But it looked very bad on the front office with them not knowing what they were doing... so they missed out on two of their top choices in a head coach. This, to me, sends that same exact message.
If I recall Sporano got an extension the year before he was fired.
But it looked very bad on the front office with them not knowing what they were doing... so they missed out on two of their top choices in a head coach. This, to me, sends that same exact message.
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So then what are your thoughts on Tannenbaum?
I just can't shake this too many chiefs vibe. Aponte, Marino, Tannenbaum, Hickey, Philbin, what the $^&* is going on? Is Mangini still around too? Higgins? This organizational structure is a madhouse. Who answers to who, who is responsible for personnel, drafts, scouting, hiring, firing, just make it simple.
Well, I’m not in love with the idea, but from everything I have searched out, read, re-read etc, it may not be too bad.
The good possibilities.
Tannenbaum worked with a consulting firm or some **** that gave him access to multiple coaches across multiple sports. He is also a big part of the Sports Science stuff. (studies on training athletes, making them better, keeping them healthier, etc) So he has a background in those type of things, and should start incorporating those programs into Dolphins football. (a good thing, Seattle does it as well)
If he sticks to just Ops, he runs paperwork, day to day bs, figure head, etc, while Hickey runs the scouting and drafting department. Let him do what he does best, and not have to do all the paperwork on top of everything else. Just find talent. (should be a good thing)
Then Philbin coaches. (meh)
Aponte handles the Salary cap stuff, working with all of them, Philbin, Hickey, and maybe Tannenbaum.
Then you have Marino and whatever he does.
So, to put simply, Hickey and Philbin get this year. If they do good, and get the roster right, and make a run next season, fine, we keep building, and move on. If they don’t, then Tannenbaum clears them all out, and gets a new GM/Coach partnership. (Rex Ryan?)
My only “worry” is as long as Tannenbaum doesn’t try to name himself GM. If he stays just a suit above a GM, fine, I can handle that, no prob. If he names himself GM, I hate it. I don’t want him as a GM/Draft guy. He made some good picks in NY, but I don’t care. That was 7-10 years ago.
From what I have seen, Seattle has a HUGE front office directory as well. It’s not just Pete Carroll, it’s Pete and 20 other suits/titles everywhere. I haven’t yet gone and checked that, but I read a guy I trust saying that. If that’s the case, then we don’t need to worry too much on our end. Tannenbaum basically becomes Ross when Ross isn’t in Miami. He makes the football calls, and reports to Ross, Ross is basically the anti Jerry Jones. (a good thing) Ross doesn’t know football, so he hired a guy who does know football to do stuff for him.
Ross
Tannenbaum -> Aponte -> Marino
Hickey
Philbin -> Lazor -> Coyle
And various scouts, assistants, etc that report to each of those people.
As long as they let each person do their own job, we could be ok. If Tannenbaum starts saying Draft this guy, or sign that guy, and Philbin/Hickey object, then we could have some problems. Hopefully he doesn’t do that, he just lets Hickey scout and draft them, and Philbin coach them.
The good possibilities.
Tannenbaum worked with a consulting firm or some **** that gave him access to multiple coaches across multiple sports. He is also a big part of the Sports Science stuff. (studies on training athletes, making them better, keeping them healthier, etc) So he has a background in those type of things, and should start incorporating those programs into Dolphins football. (a good thing, Seattle does it as well)
If he sticks to just Ops, he runs paperwork, day to day bs, figure head, etc, while Hickey runs the scouting and drafting department. Let him do what he does best, and not have to do all the paperwork on top of everything else. Just find talent. (should be a good thing)
Then Philbin coaches. (meh)
Aponte handles the Salary cap stuff, working with all of them, Philbin, Hickey, and maybe Tannenbaum.
Then you have Marino and whatever he does.
So, to put simply, Hickey and Philbin get this year. If they do good, and get the roster right, and make a run next season, fine, we keep building, and move on. If they don’t, then Tannenbaum clears them all out, and gets a new GM/Coach partnership. (Rex Ryan?)
My only “worry” is as long as Tannenbaum doesn’t try to name himself GM. If he stays just a suit above a GM, fine, I can handle that, no prob. If he names himself GM, I hate it. I don’t want him as a GM/Draft guy. He made some good picks in NY, but I don’t care. That was 7-10 years ago.
From what I have seen, Seattle has a HUGE front office directory as well. It’s not just Pete Carroll, it’s Pete and 20 other suits/titles everywhere. I haven’t yet gone and checked that, but I read a guy I trust saying that. If that’s the case, then we don’t need to worry too much on our end. Tannenbaum basically becomes Ross when Ross isn’t in Miami. He makes the football calls, and reports to Ross, Ross is basically the anti Jerry Jones. (a good thing) Ross doesn’t know football, so he hired a guy who does know football to do stuff for him.
Ross
Tannenbaum -> Aponte -> Marino
Hickey
Philbin -> Lazor -> Coyle
And various scouts, assistants, etc that report to each of those people.
As long as they let each person do their own job, we could be ok. If Tannenbaum starts saying Draft this guy, or sign that guy, and Philbin/Hickey object, then we could have some problems. Hopefully he doesn’t do that, he just lets Hickey scout and draft them, and Philbin coach them.
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Right. Well, I like that Hickey can run his own draft. I liked the Landry and James choices, think he deserves another shot at that.
Defense needs to be rebuilt, must be a priority as well as WR.
Defense needs to be rebuilt, must be a priority as well as WR.
I get the feeling that Wallace is gone.
But, in a sense, that could be ok. Draft another 1-2 guys to go along with Landry, Miller, Clay, and Tannehill, that's a young offense that can do some things, and would be cheap. Allows us to spend money on rehauling the defense.
But, in a sense, that could be ok. Draft another 1-2 guys to go along with Landry, Miller, Clay, and Tannehill, that's a young offense that can do some things, and would be cheap. Allows us to spend money on rehauling the defense.
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I get that feeling as well. Especially after the last press release about him going and sitting by himself the rest of the game after telling Philbin he didn't want to play.
What I like... Cobb, Maclin, and Crabtree are set to hit the FA market. If Wallace is let go, I believe it frees up his cap to nab one of these three. I personally would love Maclin, always been a fan of his since Missou. Would also love to cut Hartline as well, Have a 1. (one of the three) 2. Matthews 3. Landry (slot) and 4. Gibson
What I don't like... If they just cut him, keep Hartline who doesn't fit in this offense, and then need to use a draft pick on a WR when line and defense need to be the main focus.
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