THE OFFICIAL 2015 FANTASY BASEBALL THREAD

[stick]

^ Yeah Lamb only plays against righties.. Here's a pic of the guys who are available. First one is in order of own %, second one is player rating so far.

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[johnnyredstorm]

Ploufe, Freese, Castellanos, Chisenhall and Aramis are underperforming their career BABIP averages. so they might be due for a reversion.

Solarte, Lamb, Chris Johnson, Asche are over performing so they might be set to pullback.

I've been thinking about toying with the BABIP strategy of buying low on guys that have good career BABIP averages, but i haven't done/followed this before so i dont wanna give you bad advice on that end but i'd probably take a shot on castellanos, chisenhall or ramirez. chris johnson, of the guys vastly over performing averages, does have the highest career babip out of all of them, but he's batting 100 points higher than he usually does on balls in play and thats not sustainable.

if Sano gets called up, that's one guy you wanna take a gamble on if you have a keeper league. Big prospect for the Twins.

 

[stick]

Thanks for the help man! Always much appreciated.

 

[dgum]

I kind of like Freese from those options.  Already hit 3 home runs after only 10 last year, and he was pretty damn reliable whenever he got playing time in years prior to last.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

np.

curious to how long yasmany tomas languishes. he's being paid way too much to not be on the field.

freese is a decent option^ steamer projections have him the highest rated guy in wRC+ of the guys available on that list.

 

[dgum]

Really wish the Sox would give Holt more playing time.  He has every position eligibility other than catcher in my league.  I had him last year and he was great so I'd try and scoop him immediately if someone gets hurt.

 

[freddie black]

I've been thinking about toying with the BABIP strategy of buying low on guys that have good career BABIP averages, but i haven't done/followed this before so i dont wanna give you bad advice on that end

That's actually almost always a solid strategy when scouting hitters to buy low on. It will typically tell you which guys are getting unlucky at the moment and who's getting too  lucky and simply playing over their head. You can delve further into it by looking at their batted ball profile--current LD%, GB%, FB%, HR/FB vs. previous season and career averages--as well as seeing if they're trying too hard at the dish by looking at their O-Swing%, O-Contact%, etc.

You can do the same with pitchers in regards to BABIP, LOB%, FIP, xFIP, batted ball information, plate discipline information, and how often they're using a given pitch and how effective it is working. Of course, all of these things must be taken with a large grain of salt this early in the season because the sample sizes are still extremely small at this point. You can read here about the estimated stabilization points for each statistic.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

totes man. fangraphs did a podcast recently mentioning sample size. i just started using saber metrics but its really useful stuff. been writing a lot about pitchers lately and using pitchfx.

Harvey's LOB% is absurd right now 97.8%. amazing. obviously means very little through two outings, but that's pretty wild.

i like this data though since it gives you an edge to find value, and when to sell high/buy low on people.

 

[freddie black]

I know I posted the Chrome extension I use in the FF thread but here's the convenient extension I use for baseball.

It provides an icon that links to each player's Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and Razzball page.

Now that that cat's out the bag, I recommend reading Razzball for everyone. Really good stuff and humorous. They do football and basketball too and do pieces for DFS as well.

 

[dgum]

Thought I was good to start Miley against that Nats offense.  I done ****** up

 

[freddie black]

Tomas called back up by Arizona. Not sure where he'll fit right away and he wasn't exactly tearing up AAA.

Still worth rolling the dice for his power upside, I'm probably about to drop Avisail Garcia to pick Tomas back up.

 

[dgum]

Carlos Gomez going on the DL.

I kept Rendon and Gomez.

 

[AgentZero]

Is it time to drop Aramis Ramirez or continue to hold out? Moustakas and Semien are available free agents at 3B.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

It's fair to expect a bit of a regression from Moustakas, he's hitting well above his typical metrics, but I think you can make that switch. Aramis could just be shot at this point, he's 10 years older. Not getting on base. Moustakas is hitting more fly balls so far than he typically does, maybe that's the adjustment that's helped him drive the ball more as a hitter. I'd take the shot on him.

 

[bigpat630]

Picked up Salazar. Was just sitting on the wire.

 

[macbk]

Any waiver options I should look at for a 3B? Healey is killing me with all his K's as of late .

 

[dgum]

 
Picked up Salazar. Was just sitting on the wire.

Dang that's an awesome pickup.  Your league mates were sleepin.

 

[dgum]

Any waiver options I should look at for a 3B? Healey is killing me with all his K's as of late

.

What guys do you have available?  I just scooped up Jake Lamb as he's been tearing the cover off the ball lately, but my league is pretty deep so I'm usually dealing with bottom of the barrel type players.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

i put up 600 points this week in the NT keeper :x wow love my pitching staff, getting great production from my hitters. cruz has been a monster.

 

[bigpat630]

 
Dang that's an awesome pickup.  Your league mates were sleepin.

I know. Couldn't believe it. It's a 8-team league.

 

[macbk]

Just dropped Grandal and picked up Kevin Plawecki, Mets C prospect. Gonna alternate with him and Norris for a bit while he's up in the majors.

dgum Gonna give Lamb a look, he's available, and I just dropped Morse for him. Too many 1B/OFs on my bench, and Morse is the weak link atm.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

i own t-bone so i need plawecki but I'm forced to activate worth from the dl. could drop morrow but idk if i should hold out for his start this week. its a keeper league so i prob shouldn't risk it.

 

[run.lmc]

Are the Tigers really going back with Nathan as their closer when he comes back? I have Soria

 

[dgum]

Hate to say it but Nathan is worthless to the team unless he's the closer, so I think yes.  I don't own either but they should obviously stick with Soria, though.  I owned Nathan last year and and it was nerve-racking.

 

[stick]

Are the Tigers really going back with Nathan as their closer when he comes back? I have Soria

I have Soria too. As well as Familia (NYM). Both have been killing it but both will probably be demoted once their injured counterparts return .