The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

Ford & Pelton on WCS:
Projecting Cauley-Stein in NBA

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Question: Why hasn't Willie Cauley-Stein's rise up draft boards been mirrored by his WARP projection?

Kevin Pelton: No top upperclassman has done more to solidify his draft stock this season than Cauley-Stein, the junior center from Kentucky who is the only non-freshman NCAA player in the top 10 on Chad's most recent big board. Yet Cauley-Stein wasn't in the top 30 of my statistical big board; he currently ranks 44th in terms of projected WARP (1.2), a discrepancy that's worth considering.

From the perspective of box-score stats, Cauley-Stein hasn't improved dramatically from his sophomore season. While he's playing a larger role in the UK offense despite all the talent around him, Cauley-Stein has seen his block rate drop nearly by half from his sophomore season. So factoring in age, his projection is actually slightly worse than it was a year ago. What have scouts seen that has helped boost his stock?

Chad Ford: The raw appeal has nothing to really do with his box-score stats. It's the siren song of a super athletic 7-footer with the agility to defend, perhaps, all five positions on the floor. Those guys come along ... well, never. That's why he's in the conversation for a top-10 pick. He's inconsistent offensively, but his defensive upside is off the charts.

Question: What are Cauley-Stein's strengths and weaknesses?

Pelton: The big positive with Cauley-Stein is something my projection system usually loves: steal rate. Among players listed as centers in my database, Cauley-Stein's projected steal percentage (1.7 percent) would rank third behind DeJuan Blair and Nerlens Noel. In terms of both projected steal percentage and block percentage (4.4 percent), just two players can beat Cauley-Stein: Kentucky predecessors Noel and Anthony Davis.

The difference between Cauley-Stein and those players is on the glass. His projected defensive rebound percentage (15.9 percent) would be the worst of any NBA-bound center in my database. Cauley-Stein has had plenty of competition for rebounds from his teammates, including Noel, Julius Randle and now Karl-Anthony Towns. An adjustment for that competition is one reason Cauley-Stein scores so much better in Layne Vashro's draft projections. Still, it's hard to project Cauley-Stein as even an average rebounder in the NBA.

Ford: Cauley-Stein projects as a versatile, elite defender who has, time and time again, shut down the opposing team's best player when he's hot. I think he's a much better shot-blocker than his stats show this season. He's typically on the floor with another elite shot-blocker, Towns. With Towns protecting the rim, head coach John Calipari has used Cauley-Stein in all sorts of creative ways, including chasing players down on the perimeter and funneling them into a waiting Towns. If Towns wasn't on this team, Cauley-Stein would be used differently (like he was last season with Julius Randle) and his blocks would be way up.

While you're concerned about his rebounding numbers, it's his offense (or lack thereof) that scares me. He's still, three years into his college career, a major work in progress on offense. He's great in the open floor and alley-oops. He's showing the beginnings of a nice mid-range jumper. But his post game is still very raw and his shot selection can be highly questionable. He's going to be an offensive liability for a while.

The other knock you'll occasionally hear about Cauley-Stein is his personality. He's quirky and his entire life doesn't just center on basketball the way it does for so many other top prospects. That scares teams and makes them wonder whether he'll have the drive to improve his game at the next level.

Question: What is an NBA comparison for Cauley-Stein?

Pelton: SCHOENE's best comp for Cauley-Stein at the same age is former Florida State center Solomon Alabi, who played two seasons for the Toronto Raptors but never stuck in the NBA. The next two players are more encouraging: Larry Sanders and Joakim Noah. Throwing out age, Minnesota Timberwolves center Gorgui Dieng was a good match, though he was a year and a half older and has evolved into a better offensive player in the pros (but a weaker defender) than his college stats suggested. Subjectively, I think like Cauley-Stein could be a rich man's version of Ryan Hollins. Is that selling him short, Chad?

Ford: I think so. He'd better be better than Hollins or Alabi if he's going to be a top-10 pick. I hear Tyson Chandler comps a lot from NBA teams. Sanders, too. I actually think Noel might be the right comp -- an agile, versatile, athletic big man who can collect high rates of blocks and steals but struggles to score.

Question: Who's your sleeper this week?

Pelton: Wade Baldwin IV, PG, Fr., Vanderbilt

Baldwin recently made the national headlines for all the wrong reasons -- he was on the receiving end of Commodores coach Kevin Stallings' verbal abuse after taunting a Tennessee player in the postgame handshake line. I suspect eventually we'll know Baldwin for his work on the court. I threw him into my projections after seeing how well he rated by Vashro's metrics, and he jumped immediately to 11th in projected WARP. That overstates Baldwin's readiness to play in the NBA -- he shot just 37.0 percent on 2-point attempts in the SEC -- but he's shown promise for a freshman point guard. Per Sports-Reference.com, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell is the only other major-conference freshman who has averaged at least 8.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 4.0 APG, and past players meeting those criteria have tended to get to the NBA. So look out for Baldwin in the 2016 or 2017 draft.

My sleeper is: Domantas Sabonis, F, Fr., Gonzaga

I know I appear to have this fascination for freshman who don't start for their own teams, but Sabonis is quietly drawing major attention from NBA scouts and I can see why. Some of it, I'm sure, is the fact that his father is Arvydas Sabonis, perhaps the greatest international big man of all time. But more of it has to do with his elite rebounding ability (his total rebounding percentage is better than any freshman or sophomore in the country at 18.9 percent), size, great shooting percentages (74 percent at the rim, 48 percent on 2-point jumpers) and high basketball IQ for a player who doesn't turn 19 until May.

I know he's not an elite athlete (though his motor makes up for some of that), nor does he have a 3-point shot, but every time I see him on the floor, he passes the eye test as a big man who could really have a nice career in the NBA. We have him at No. 29 on our Big Board, but it feels too low. Especially given the fact that some teams see him as the perfect draft-and-stash candidate.

Pelton: Sabonis is currently 45th on my board, directly behind Cauley-Stein, but when players withdraw from the draft, I suspect he'll end up about the same spot as your big board if he decides to enter. Sabonis definitely makes sense as a stash candidate if he's interested in heading back overseas, since he's not yet ready to contribute in the NBA (my projections have him below replacement level next season), but at 18 he's one of the youngest players potentially in this draft class.

My big concern: Sabonis definitely isn't a rim protector (0.6 blocks per 40 minutes this year) and he doesn't figure to develop into a floor spacer (66.3 percent free throw shooting is a poor indicator in that regard). That's a tough spot for modern big men.
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I think WCS in a high paced system can really thrive and make a deference defensively.

It's scary that the Hawks can either get him or Justise Winslow. :x


One of them in the second unit with Schroder going to be elite.
 
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I think WCS in a high paced system can really thrive and make a deference defensively.

It's scary that the Hawks can either get him or Justice Winslow.
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One of them in the second unit with Schroder going to be elite.
Really want to see Justise on the Hawks. Seen him mocked there a few times.

Jazz work too.

Russell 
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 Give me him over Mudiay 10/10
 
Billy King really traded the teams future for Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace, KG, and Paul Pierce :lol:
 
Billy King really traded the teams future for Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace, KG, and Paul Pierce :lol:


Three of these dudes ain't even on the team and the one that is washed. :lol:


Coulda had Dame Lillard but instead they paying Deron MVP money. :x :lol:
 
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I won't get on him for the d will trade, but I said it when he made the other deals and gave up those picks he would regret it. The kg and pierce trade was ballsy, the Gerald Wallace trade was asinine and ludicrous.
 
Billy King really traded the teams future for Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace, KG, and Paul Pierce :lol:


They were trying to compete with the knicks for popularity :lol:

They will never come close to being relevant here.


Plumlee is a real good piece, though.
 
Another Fran Fraschilla film session:

NBA's next great defensive big man
The NBA is a league of specialists.

There are 25 or so great multiskilled players, commonly known as the superstars. Everyone else is a role player, and that is not meant to be a condemnation.

There are great players in the NBA who do one or two things well enough to be thought of as stars or, at worst, very good players. Kyle Korver is one of the league's best shooters. Tony Allen has carved out a 12-season NBA career as an elite wing defender.

To be effective in a meaningful NBA game, a player has to be very good at something.

Which brings us to Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein. His stock is on the rise, in part, because many NBA teams see an elite athlete with 7-foot size, a 7-2 wingspan and the ability to be an excellent defensive big man who can guard multiple positions in multiple defensive schemes. In short, he is a defensive playmaker.

Though not exactly the same body type, Cauley-Stein can look to guys such as DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Andre Drummond, who have all become dominant defensive players in the NBA. He has a chance to affect the game on that end of the court the way they have.

First of all, few big men come into the NBA with Cauley-Stein's ridiculous athleticism. He has had so many jaw-dropping plays this season that they are nearly too numerous to catalog. But if there is one play that epitomizes what I am talking about, it is this dunk at Florida on a Kentucky fast break.

Watch how high he gets on this takeoff and how he finishes this dunk over Gators freshman Devin Robinson.

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Although Cauley-Stein's block rate of 6.8 percent (6.8 blocks per 100 2-point field goal attempts) is only slightly more than half that of teammate Karl-Anthony Towns' 12.6 percent, he has all the shot-blocking attributes that someone with his size and athleticism should possess.

At Alabama, watch how he overplays the passing lane at the top of the key and still recovers to the lane to make the play at the rim. His timing is good and he stays away from the driver's body as well.

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Keep in mind that with Marcus Lee, Dakari Johnson, Towns and Cauley-Stein, the Wildcats' block rate of 18.7 percent is second best in the country behind Texas' 20.3 percent. So Cauley-Stein does not have to do all of the rim protection himself.

In fact, Kentucky coach John Calipari has at times used Cauley-Stein as a perimeter "stopper."

When Providence's high-scoring, 6-7 forward LaDontae Henton came to Rupp Arena on Nov. 30, he was averaging 24.3 points per game and had scorched Notre Dame the previous week for 38 points. With Cauley-Stein as his primary defender, Henton was held to 1-of-8 shooting and three points against the Wildcats.

And when Kentucky traveled to Tennessee, Cauley-Stein started the game defending the Vols' outstanding point guard, Josh Richardson. The Wildcats won going away while holding Richardson to 4-of-13 shooting.

Keep in mind that Cauley-Stein's steal rate of 3.5 percent is just outside of the top 100, as well. What makes that so impressive is that this list is full of guards and wings, and there is no player in the top 100 who is taller than 6-8.

In the Wildcats' close win at LSU, Cauley-Stein showed off his defensive versatility and effort on this play as he steals the ball, chases it down, saves it from going out of bounds and winds up finishing with the basket off a pass from Towns.

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Where much of Cauley-Stein's athleticism will manifest itself in an NBA game will be in defending in screen-and-roll situations. Most NBA teams rely on multiple defensive coverages depending on the skills of the ball handler and the screener. He should feel right at home.

Cauley-Stein will be able to switch onto smaller players, especially at the end of the shot clock, hedge hard and force the ball handler from attacking the basket, or hedging flat or soft, keeping himself closer to the basket. This will make his team's defense more versatile with him on the floor.

One area of concern I have for Cauley-Stein is in defending big, physical players in post-up situations. If he plays early in his career, teams will go at him immediately, and he will need to learn to stand his ground, play with leverage and use his quickness to do his work early inside.

Right now, Cauley-Stein's offense consists mainly of rim-to-rim runs in transition, dump-off dunks off guard penetration and offensive rebound putbacks. As expected, he makes 74 percent of these "at the rim" shots, according to hoop-math.com.

And, while he has shown a willingness to shoot a midrange jump shot, it will not initially be high on the list of priorities for the NBA team that drafts him. This season, his favorite midrange shot area has been at the right elbow, according to shotanalytics.com, and he is making only 27 percent of those shots.

Initially, where Cauley-Stein will put the most pressure on a defense will be in his ability to run the floor. If he runs hard, their recovery to the lane must keep him from scoring at the rim, and it will open up scoring opportunities for his teammates who fill the lanes, space the floor and spot up at the 3-point line.

Here's an example of Cauley-Stein's ability to run the floor and finish in transition. You get an idea here of his unique athleticism and why he was an excellent high school wide receiver.

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One thing Cauley-Stein will find in the NBA is more space offensively, and he will have more offensive talent around him, especially on the perimeter. This means that because his teammates' offense will need to be accounted for, scoring opportunities will manifest themselves for him.

When he learns the nuances of the NBA screen-and-roll game, he should develop into a very good rolling finisher at the rim. According to SynergySportsTech, he has been involved in very few of those plays this season. Here is one example of how Cauley-Stein can be effective.

In this side screen-and-roll at Florida, he should screen then roll with more force than he does here. He is still open for the lob because of teammate Tyler Ulis' penetration and the indecision of the Gators defender at the rim. Ulis puts the pass in a place few on the court can get to. This lob play for Cauley-Stein will become routine for him in the NBA.

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Offensive rebounding should also become a strength for Cauley-Stein. While his body type will be problematic in terms of banging with more physical post players, his energy and motor have revved higher for the Wildcats this season than it did in his first two campaigns. But more importantly, he is a quick second jumper with agility for his size.

There have been questions in the past about how much Cauley-Stein loves the game and about his maturity. Though NBA teams will be studying those aspects closely, most of those questions have been answered this season.

Last season, he was projected as a first-round pick even after he fractured his left ankle in the NCAA tournament. The injury required surgery and a lengthy recovery, as well. In eschewing the NBA draft, he returned to become one of the most dominant players in college basketball, and his name has even been mentioned in the national player of the year discussion.

Competing for a stacked Kentucky team has allowed Cauley-Stein to play the role he will eventually have in the NBA. He has sacrificed his ego by giving up offensive opportunities but has helped engineer the Wildcats to one of the most dominant defensive seasons in college basketball history.

Sacrificing that ego as an NBA rookie and knowing his role should make his adjustment to the league a little smoother than most.
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Your Wiggins man crush tho
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I mean, he hasn't said anything about Wiggins that wasn't true. 

LaVine doesn't look like he's good at anything either. 

He stans for Canadians, but y'all are not picking the right battles right now. 
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