The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

[comptonprince]

 
.....And that's why Okafor is a great prospect. He his skilled offensively, something a lot of NBA bigs AREN'T

 

[jadaqwest]

Okafor average over 15 pts(really) thats not happening in the next 4-5 years dude has a long way to go to be productive even in a center starved nba he is no premier post player remember i said Eddy Curry....teams that could draft him twolves,knicks,lakers need a lot more than he can offer76ers twolves tecnically have no need for him oh well to each its own

 

[NickFolarin]

 
Okafor average over 15 pts(really) thats not happening in the next 4-5 years dude has a long way to go to be productive even in a center starved nba he is no premier post player remember i said Eddy Curry....teams that could draft him twolves,knicks,lakers need a lot more than he can offer76ers twolves tecnically have no need for him oh well to each its own

You do know Eddy Curry has a career average of 13 PPG, and without the last 4 seasons of his career is in the 15-16 PPG range easily. Okafor can easily average 15 PPG. Rookie Dwight averaged 13 PPG, and sophomore Dwight averaged 16 PPG.

 

[nick.]

i'm out for a couple days

 

[johnnyredstorm]

he's not a premier post player but he's one of the most fundamentally sound low block scorers of this millennium. ok.

never change NT.

 

[ny mavurs]

A lot of people in here like to outweigh the cons over the pros, which is understandable, but c'mon now

 

[ballinsam23]

Winslow a 2 or 3 in the nba?

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

Found an updated mock
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2015-nba-mock-draft.html

 

[al3xis]

.....And that's why Okafor is a great prospect. He his skilled offensively, something a lot of NBA bigs AREN'T

But He has a point, because it's much harder to play through a traditional back to the basket big in today's game with current rules and defense.

 

[nick.]

Winslow a 2 or 3 in the nba?

depends how he measures up.

if he's closer to 6'6" he's a 2. if he's closer to 6'8" he's a 3.

 

[User 37837]

Don't see Booker dropping lower than 17-18

 

[herbshuttles15]

Found an updated mock
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2015-nba-mock-draft.html

I like parts of Stanley's game but a Joe Johnson comparison and definte all star?

 

[pmatic]

360 profiles on the UK kids:

Towns has top-pick tools

WARP projection: 2.8 (3rd among players in top 100)
Comparables: Patrick O'Bryant (98.4), Steven Adams (95.5), Greg Oden (95.2), Chris Bosh (94.5)
Strengths: Shooting%, Rebound%, Block%
Weaknesses: PF%

The analytics perspective

Besides an eerie similarity to Patrick O'Bryant, who dominated the Missouri Valley Conference but was a bust in the NBA, there's not much in the way of red flags in Towns' statistics. His only negative was a high foul rate (5.6 per 40 minutes) that can be explained in part by Kentucky's enviable post depth, which made foul trouble largely a non-concern.

Towns joined a growing list of elite Kentucky rim protectors that also includes predecessors Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel and teammate Willie Cauley-Stein. He projects to block 5.0 percent of opponent 2-point attempts and secure 20.0 percent of available defensive rebounds as a rookie. Only one other player in my college database (Hassan Whiteside) reached both of those thresholds.

By comparison to Jahlil Okafor, Towns is a lesser scorer but he figures to become a useful offensive player as well. His combination of usage and efficiency at the college level is similar to Derrick Favors of the Utah Jazz during his lone season at Georgia Tech. And Towns' excellent free throw shooting for a big man (81.3 percent) bodes well for his ability to develop a mid-range game. As a result, he's atop my subjective draft board.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

The NBA draft has become a baseball draft.

Because of the relative youth of recent drafts, very few players each year can step into an NBA lineup and immediately contribute. So, like major league baseball, more and more selections are based on long-term (three-to-five-year) projections.

Which brings me to Towns. The 7-foot, 250-pound freshman with a 7-3 wingspan could be the No. 1 pick in June's draft. And although the 19-year-old is not as advanced as fellow Wildcat Anthony Davis was at the same stage, he is the basketball equivalent of a "five-tool" guy with a nice combination of skill, size, athleticism, youth and a "give-a-damn meter" that runs high.

However, unlike Duke's Jahlil Okafor, he is not the focal point of Kentucky's team even if he is the Wildcats' best NBA prospect. In fact, Towns did not reach double-figure field goal attempts in a game until Feb. 3.

The first subtle attribute that jumps out to me about Towns is that he is an alert player on both ends of the floor. Watch him closely for 10 minutes of any contest and you will notice that he has a good feel for the game. Something I notice as a coach is that rebounds he can't grab initially, he'll tip to himself.

On the defensive end, he is proving to be a prolific shot-blocker because of his considerable length, timing and instincts. In fact, his block rate, according to kenpom.com, was a robust 11.5, 19th best in the country.

In addition, he possesses good lateral quickness for a player his size which, combined with his high basketball IQ, allows him to effectively defend screen-and-roll and isolation plays. Playing the screen-and-roll well and defending away from the basket is a prerequisite for being a key defensive player on an NBA team. In this regard, he has a huge advantage over Okafor.

Offensively, Towns became an offensive force down the stretch of the season. When I first saw him as a young player on the AAU circuit, then for coach John Calipari's Dominican Republic national team, he was spending an inordinate amount of time playing on the perimeter and eschewing physical play around the basket.

That has changed in one season at Kentucky.

Towns has begun to embrace physical contact in the paint and that bodes well for his NBA future. He has begun to work hard for position and has all the attributes that will make him an outstanding low-post scorer. Not only does he have a soft shooting touch that, along with his size, translated well to the painted area, he also shows a willingness to score over both shoulders. That is rare for a young post player.

As an added bonus, Towns has a unique ability to stretch a defense with his outside shooting. While it was not encouraged this season at UK, it is a more-than-capable weapon that he will show off in the NBA. One NBA scout told me he watched Towns make 13 straight college 3-point shots during a pregame shootaround before a recent Kentucky game.

And if, as my ESPN colleague Kevin Pelton believes, that free throw percentage can be the best predictor of successful outside shooting, Towns' 81 percent free throw rate bodes well for him, also.

I used the baseball analogy earlier in part because I believe college basketball at its highest levels is the equivalent of Double-A baseball right now. More and more top players are leaving for the NBA early and the talent level, in my opinion, has been diluted. So starring at this level is no guarantee of future stardom in the NBA. (Look at how many of the first-round picks from June are not contributing for their teams.)

I've tried to watch Towns closely and I have talked with people close to him. The sense is that he loves the game, is very coachable and is willing to work hard to improve. It's the same sense I get about him from NBA people who are following him closely.

Towns is a young player with the long-term potential to be an NBA star but he will arrive in the NBA still relatively raw and physically immature, but with immense talent. He may not have had the polish Okafor showed early in the season, but he gradually closed the gap in that regard by the end of the season. It is why Okafor is no longer automatically the consensus No.1 pick.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Towns might be the most complete big man prospect in the country right now. He's proved to be an elite rebounder and shot-blocker at Kentucky, and has dramatically improved his offensive game as the season has progressed. He has a sweet little hook shot in the paint and is a terrific shooter with range all the way out to the 3-point line. Add in a crazy-long wingspan and solid athleticism for a player his size, and he appears to be an elite NBA prospect.

The only real knocks on Towns center on questions about toughness and consistency. He can sometimes back down when playing against physical defenders, and his motor from game to game is an issue. He's also a little more difficult to project than Okafor because of the role he plays at Kentucky. While Okafor is the center of everything Duke does, Towns is surrounded by other NBA prospects and plays a more limited role. NBA GMs and scouts thinking about drafting him No. 1 have to get past that.

Regardless, he's a very legit candidate for the No. 1 pick in the draft. While not as offensively polished as Okafor, his defense and better athleticism may make him the better long-term pick. Like Okafor, there are virtually no scenarios in which he falls out of the top three or four picks.

-- Chad Ford

Cauley-Stein could be elite NBA defender

WARP Projection: 1.2 (37th among players in top 100)
Comparables: Solomon Alabi (94.7), Larry Sanders (93.6), Jason Thompson (92.6), Kyle O'Quinn (92.5)
Strengths: 2P%, Steal%
Weaknesses: Usage, Shooting, Rebound%

The analytics perspective

Cauley-Stein's statistics suggest he's going to be an outstanding NBA defender. He joins five predecessors in my college database (including fellow Wildcats Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel) who projected to have a steal rate better than 1.5 percent and a block rate better than 4.0 percent. The one concern about Cauley-Stein at the defensive end is his rebounding. The only 7-footer in my database with a lower projected defensive rebound rate was Cody Zeller.

On offense, Cauley-Stein projects as a low-usage, high-efficiency role player. He shot 59.3 percent from the field in his Kentucky career, but he never used plays at an above-average rate. Cauley-Stein's biggest offensive development over the course of his career came at the free throw line. He went from 37.2 percent in 86 attempts as a freshman, which invited intentional fouls, to a respectable 61.7 percent in 128 attempts as a junior.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

The NBA is a league of specialists.

There are 25 or so great multi-skilled players in the league, commonly known as the superstars. Everyone else is a role player (that is not meant to be a condemnation).

There are great players in the NBA who do one or two things well enough to be thought of as stars or, at worst, very good NBA players. Kyle Korver is one of the league's best shooters. The Grizzlies' Tony Allen has carved out a 12-year NBA career as an elite wing defender.

To be effective in a meaningful NBA game, a player has to be very good at something.

Which gets us to Cauley-Stein. His stock has risen this season in part because many NBA teams see an elite athlete with 7-foot size, a 7-2 wingspan and the agility to be an excellent defensive big man who can guard multiple positions and in multiple defensive schemes. In short, he is a defensive playmaker.

Though not exactly the same body type, Cauley-Stein can look to guys like DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Andre Drummond, all of whom have become dominant defensive players in the NBA. Cauley-Stein has a chance to affect the game on that end of the court the way they have.

Few big men come into the NBA with Cauley-Stein's ridiculous athleticism. He has had so many jaw-dropping plays this season that they are nearly too numerous to catalog.

Although Cauley-Stein's block rate of 7.1 percent (7.1 blocks per 100 2-point field goal attempts) is lower than teammate Karl-Anthony Towns' 11 percent, he has all the shot-blocking attributes that someone with his size and athleticism should possess. Plus, Cauley-Stein did not have to do all of the rim-protecting himself. Kentucky coach John Calipari at times used Cauley-Stein as a perimeter stopper. Blanketing prolific perimeter scorers added to his mystique among NBA evaluators.

In an NBA game, much of Cauley-Stein's athleticism will manifest itself in defending screen-and-roll situations. Most NBA teams rely on multiple defensive coverages depending on the skills of the ball handler and the screener. He should be right at home.

He will be able to switch to smaller players, especially at the end of the shot clock, "hedge hard" and prevent the ball handler from attacking the basket, or he can "hedge flat or soft," keeping himself closer to the basket. This will make his team's defense more versatile with him on the floor.

One area of concern I have for Cauley-Stein is in defending big, physical players in post-up situations. If he plays early in his NBA career, teams will go at him immediately, and he will need to learn to stand his ground, play with leverage and use his quickness to do his work early inside.

Right now, Cauley-Stein's offense consists mainly of rim-to-rim runs in transition, dump-off dunks off guard penetration, and offensive rebound putbacks. As expected, he makes 73 percent of these at-the-rim shots, according to hoop-math.com.

And while he has shown a willingness to shoot a midrange jump shot, it will not initially be high on the list of priorities for the NBA team that drafts him. He made 33 percent of his 2-point jump shots this season.

Initially, Cauley-Stein will put the most pressure on a defense via his ability to run the floor. If he runs hard, the D's recovery to the lane must keep him from scoring at the rim, and that will open up scoring opportunities for his teammates who fill the lanes, space the floor and spot up at the 3-point line.

One thing that Cauley-Stein will find in the NBA is more space offensively. And he will have more offensive talent around him, especially on the perimeter. That means that because his other teammates' offense will need to be accounted for, scoring opportunities will manifest for him.

When he learns the nuances of the NBA screen-and-roll game, he should develop into a very good rolling finisher at the rim. According to Synergy, he has been involved in very few of those plays this season.

Offensive rebounding should also become a strength for Cauley-Stein. While his body type will be problematic in terms of banging with more physical post players, his energy and motor have revved higher for the Wildcats this season than in his first two years. More importantly, he is a quick "second jumper" with impressive agility for his size.

There have been questions in the past about how much Cauley-Stein loves the game and about his maturity. And while NBA teams will be studying those aspects closely, most of those questions have been answered this season at Kentucky.

Last season, he was projected as a first-round pick even after he fractured his left ankle in the NCAA tournament. The injury required surgery and a lengthy recovery. In eschewing the NBA draft, he has returned to become one of the most dominant players in college basketball and his name has even been mentioned in the national player of the year discussion.

Playing on a stacked Kentucky team has allowed Cauley-Stein to play the role that he will eventually have in the NBA. He has sacrificed his ego by giving up offensive opportunities but has helped lead the Wildcats to one of the most dominant defensive seasons in college basketball history.

Sacrificing that ego as an NBA rookie and knowing his role should make his adjustment to the league a little smoother than most.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Cauley-Stein has been firmly on the NBA radar since he began his freshman season at Kentucky. His physical attributes -- elite length and size for his position combined with a rare fluidity and explosiveness for a 7-footer -- have always been his selling points. There are few 7-footers in the world who possess his combination of quickness and explosive leaping ability.

As a basketball prospect, he's been a major work in progress. Offensively, he's still very raw. He's added a little midrange jumper and has improved his post game, but he doesn't project as a good scorer at the next level. Scouts wouldn't be shocked if he didn't average 10 PPG for his career. However, he's become the most dangerous defensive weapon in the country -- the rare player who can defend all five positions on the floor at an elite level. That's his appeal.

There are still questions about Cauley-Stein's focus, his commitment to the game, and whether he'll be able to score enough to justify such a high pick. But his defensive potential is so enticing that he should find himself drafted in the 6-10 range.

-- Chad Ford

Lyles could be a first-round steal

WARP projection: 1.1 (40th among players in top 100)
Comparables: Spencer Hawes (95.3), Quincy Miller (94.3), Al-Farouq Aminu (94.2), Brandon Bass (93.5)
Strengths: None
Weaknesses: Usage, Rebound%, Block%

The analytics perspective

The statistics from Lyles' lone season at Kentucky are colored by the fact that he played out of position at small forward alongside monster defenders Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. That Lyles was as effective as he was on the glass is a positive sign, and he particularly excelled on the offensive glass, where there are fewer diminishing returns to playing with great teammates.

While Lyles lacks college 3-point range, he made enough midrange jumpers to keep opponents honest while playing on the perimeter. Assuming he moves to power forward in the NBA, his shooting will go from a minus to a plus. The comparison to Bass, another perimeter-oriented power forward with the quickness to defend bigger small forwards, makes a lot of sense.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

How does a first-round pick get lost in the shuffle at Kentucky? Playing out of position. With the injury to Alex Poythress early in Kentucky's season, the 6-foot-10, 235-pound Lyles saw most of his playing time at the small forward position in the latter half of the season by necessity. But I have seen Lyles at his best around the basket. Ultimately, his skills will fit better in the NBA as a face-up power forward with the skill to hit midrange jumpers and, ultimately, the ability to score around the basket in the NBA. His size, athleticism and game remind me of David West at Xavier, although West played all four seasons there before heading to the league.

Lyles has the size and body frame to score around the basket, although he is not an explosive athlete. In fact, while he made 74 percent of his shots around the basket this season, his game is often based on guile and intelligence. He is an up-and-under guy who will not be able to score over length early in his career. Watch how many times he double-pumps while in the air around the basket.

Playing away from the basket will certainly help Lyles, although he is not a 1-on-1 player. Rather, he is an above-average 2-point shooter at 39 percent. And ironically, many of his misses were long 2s. That's not a surprise since he only made four of his 29 3-point attempts.

Defensively, he will be much better suited to defend bigger players in the NBA. In fact, his rebounding numbers were average at best for a player his size, in part because he defended away from the basket so much. And he had a plethora of teammates who were the same size but defended closer to the basket.

Right now, Lyles is more potential and promise than production, but his being hidden at Kentucky will make some NBA team very happy. They are getting a guy who would have been the best player on most Top 25 teams this past season, and he turns just 20 in November.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Lyles was ranked as one of the top 10 freshmen in the country, and despite playing out of position all year at Kentucky, he's still widely regarded as a potential lottery pick.

Lyles' greatest skill is a high basketball IQ and a sweet midrange game that forces opponents to guard him both facing the basket and on the block. While not an elite rebounder or athlete, Lyles uses his immense skill set to impact the game on both ends of the floor.

His lack of explosive athleticism limits his draft stock somewhat, as did his more complementary role on UK this season, but he still should land somewhere in the 12-to-20 range.

"I'm a big Lyles guy," one scout said. "Watched him a bunch in high school. The Kentucky thing is helping a lot of these guys, but we'd be talking about him higher if he was on a team that really ran things through him. He's not a crazy athlete or anything, but he's bigger than you think and just knows how to play. He's a power forward in the NBA and once he's in that position, everyone's going to like him. If you get him in the middle of the draft? You got a steal."

-- Chad Ford

Booker has appeal beyond the arc

WARP Projection: 1.0 (42nd among players in top 100)
Comparables: Bradley Beal (87.1), Tobias Harris (84.6), Luol Deng (81.4), Thaddeus Young (79.4)
Strengths: Shooting, TO%
Weaknesses: Usage, FTA%, Rebound%, Assist%, Steal%, Block%

The analytics perspective

There are red flags all over Booker's freshman statistics, starting with his aversion to larceny. After picking up nine steals in his first six games, Booker had just eight in the final 32 games. He also did little to contribute to Kentucky's NCAA-best blocks total, swatting just two shots all season. As a result, Booker's combined steal and block percentages are among the lowest in my college stats database:

(I'm not sure why these players tend to exclusively come from Kentucky and UCLA despite playing under a variety of different coaches.)

Booker also scores near the bottom of NBA-bound shooting guards in both rebound and assist rates. It's possible for such a one-dimensional specialist to succeed in the NBA, and Booker's 3-point (41.1 percent) and free throw (82.8 percent) percentages suggest he should develop into a quality shooter. However, it's incredibly rare for such players to enter the draft as freshmen, which is why Booker has no players with a similarity score of 90 or better at the same age.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

Booker has three major attributes with which to impress NBA teams.

At 6-foot-6, he has the positional size for the NBA shooting guard position. Shooting 41 percent this season behind the arc and 83 percent from the free throw line, he has an authentic NBA stroke. And, finally, he has tremendous room for improvement because he will not turn 19 until the beginning of his first NBA season.

At Kentucky, Booker had one job this season -- to make 3-point shots -- and coach John Calipari gave him the green light. Playing roughly half of each game, he made 58 3-point shots over the season.

Booker, although not a great ball handler, is elusive enough to create his own shots. Curiously, however, he only connected on 28 percent of his 2-point jump shots this season. Many of his missed shots inside the arc came as a result of too many of his shots created being challenged by the defense. Creating your own shot is a skill. Judiciously knowing when not to force it is correctable.

Defensively, while Booker is not blessed with great speed, I was impressed with his effort and on-ball technique. He tries to defend and that is a good starting point. At the college level, he used his size well to challenge shots and doesn't foul. And keep in mind that in the Wildcats' switching man-to-man defense this season, he has guarded four positions.

Booker, the son of former Missouri standout Melvin Booker, seems to have a great attitude and work ethic to go along with first-round NBA talent. And when you account for the fact that he will be one of the youngest players in this draft, I won't be surprised if his stock continues to rise by draft night.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Coming into his freshman season at Kentucky, scouts didn't expect much. With both Andrew and Aaron Harrison returning for their sophomore seasons, Booker was expected to play a small role off the bench. But by the summer John Calipari had announced his platoon system and it didn't take long for scouts to see that Booker, not the Harrison twins, was the best guard on Kentucky.

His appeal is pretty simple -- he's one of the two or three best shooters in college basketball and with the rise of the Splash Brothers, everyone is clamoring after shooters. While Booker doesn't have elite size or athleticism for his position, he has a high basketball IQ and a great feel for the game. Plus, he has proved to be a solid finisher at the basket.

Look for him to go somewhere in the 13-20 range depending on how he works out against the other top shooting guard in the draft, Georgia State's R.J. Hunter.

"I think he's gotten caught up in Calipari's reality-distortion field," one GM said. "No one saw him in high school or in the early scrimmages for Kentucky and said 'lottery pick.' No one. He's a smart kid and I like him, but he has one NBA skill and so do several other guys ranked a lot lower. He's hit a bunch of shots this year and there's always value there. But what makes him that much better than Tyler Harvey or Joseph Young? You think if those guys were at Kentucky they'd hit shots too?"

-- Chad Ford

 

[keel252]

God I hate the word analytics

 

[Vincent Van Goat]

A lot of luster has worn off for Jahil Okafor, therefore I don't think he will be a bust

WE KNOW he sucks at defense. WE KNOW to be an elite big man you have to at least be average defensively (think Blake or Aldridge) and if you're playing center you should probably be an exceptional defender if your team has hopes to contend

There isn't a huge train of thought saying Jahil will be game changing or even a franchise changer. So if he's Al Jefferson 2.0, that's hardly a bust, that's a solid big man whom if you put the right pieces around him, you can have a pretty good team

 

[nick.]

Okafor could go to an NBA team tomorrow and get 15 & 5 easy...he'd probably give up 15 & 5 on the other end tho

 

[frshstunna]

If you can end up with a player putting up Al Jefferson numbers in the draft , not too many gms would be mad at that

A whole draft can have ONE superstar if it's lucky

 

[hankmoody]

It's really hard to disagree with this. Some players are born a generation too early, some too late.

 

[ballinsam23]

I just dont think you can go wrong with drafting him #1. Pair him up with a defensive PF (taj, ibaka, draymond, amir johnson) and you'd hide most of his deficiencies.

He's just too great of an offensive player at such an early stage to be a bust. Out of everyone in the draft I think he can come in and contribute right away.

 

[8pm at msg]

Who do you guys see as real sleepers? I think Gary Payton II would be a great pick up for any team. Good athlete, can defend, rebounds very well for his size, shooting %s from 3 isn't that great but I wouldn't call his shot broken at all. %s would probably go up with more work or a lesser role on offense, playing off of someone else.

Everybody knows about Denzel Valentine but yet no one talks about him as a potential draft pick. Deadeye shooter, can defend, makes the right passes, can play on or off ball. Both of these guys would be ready out the gate.

 

[ValarMorghulis]

Joseph Young gonna make a team look real smart getting picked up late in the 2nd.

He's a guy that can be a Kerr or Morrow and just come in and bang out 3s.

Graham out of VCU will make a squad rotational guy as well

 

[pmatic]

Okafor needs to work on defense

WARP projection: 2.1 (16th among players in top 100)
Comparables: J.J. Hickson (96.7), Derrick Favors (96.3), DeAndre Jordan (95.5), Kosta Koufos (94.2)
Strengths: Usage, 2P%, PF%
Weaknesses: Shoot, Block%

The analytics perspective

Okafor's shooting percentage is a statistical outlier. As detailed in my dialogue with Chad Ford on the Duke center, his WARP projection is low because his 2-point percentage gets regressed heavily to the mean. If instead we use his unregressed translation (57.6 percent), Okafor vaults to third among NCAA prospects behind D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns.

As it is, Okafor's projected 2-point percentage (53.5 percent) ranks fourth in my college database and is the best ever for a one-and-done prospect. While there's reason to be skeptical he'll be the league's most accurate shooter right away, Okafor has displayed a unique ability to finish around the basket and create high-percentage looks in the post. Aside from poor foul shooting, there's little question about his offensive ability. Any concerns about Okafor center on the defensive end.

From a statistical perspective, Okafor's low block rate (4.5 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts) is troubling. His projected NBA block rate (2.6 percent) would put him just outside the bottom 10 among centers in my college stats database, and only a handful of players with block rates so poor in college (Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Zeller, Jordan Hill, Spencer Hawes and surprisingly Andrew Bogut) have developed into NBA starting centers.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

Offensively, what makes Okafor so special is that he knows who he is as a player. Blessed with a unique combination of great agility, soft hands, keen timing and fundamentally sound footwork, he operates almost exclusively in the low post. This is his playground, even though he could operate on the perimeter effectively if he chose.

In the low post, Okafor almost always catches and looks middle. By doing this he gets to read 95 percent of the floor. When he looks over his inside shoulder, Okafor can locate where his own defender is. If the defender is on the high side, Okafor can spin baseline easily because of his uncanny footwork. And if the defender plays behind, Okafor will work the ball off the dribble to the middle of the lane, where he can use his jump hook.

Hall of Fame coach John Chaney used to say: "The middle is 'we,' the baseline is 'me.' " In other words, if you look to the middle, you can do more for your team and yourself. That epitomizes the effectiveness of Okafor in the low post.

Where he will continue to improve is in his already outstanding basketball acumen. He will need to be able to recognize the different defensive schemes designed specifically to stop him. But he is a quick study.

The front-office perspective

Okafor is, simply put, the most dominant freshman offensive big man I've ever covered. He has a polish in the low post that most NBA veterans lack. His incredible feel for the game, his advanced footwork in the post and his huge, soft hands make him an absolute monster on the block and a dangerous threat facing the basket. Okafor is shooting a crazy 76 percent at the rim this year and a super impressive 53 percent on his 2-point jumpers.

Add in crazy long arms, a strong NBA body with a wide base and a dominant drive to score the basketball and he seems like a no-brainer for the No. 1 pick. However, there are issues. Defensively he's a bit slow-footed and isn't the dominant rim protector most teams are looking for in the middle. And while he's a good rebounder, he isn't quite as dominant as you'd expect given his size. He lacks explosive leaping ability and tends to finish below the rim.

"There just aren't that many true centers in the league today that demand a double-team every time they touch the ball," one GM told ESPN.com. "Okafor's that type of player. The league has changed since the Olajuwon, Robinson and Ewing days. But it's changed because those sorts of players weren't available. Every coach in the league covets a player like Okafor. He might not be a great defender, but getting that sort of offensive production out of your center will really give whoever drafts him an advantage."

So while Okafor projects as an absolutely dominant offensive player, his lack of explosive athleticism and pedestrian defense give scouts pause. They want No. 1 picks to be dominant on both ends of the ball, and right now, Okafor isn't.

Still, he's been ranked No. 1 on our Big Board all year and holds a slight edge over Karl-Anthony Towns for the No. 1 pick. There's almost no way he falls out of the top three.

-- Chad Ford

 

[pmatic]

The NBA Future Of The Kentucky Seven

As you would expect for a team that went 38-1 and lost in the Final Four, the vast majority of Kentucky’s rotation elected to go pro on Thursday, with as many as seven different players expected to be taken in the 2015 NBA draft. When they get to the league, though, they are going to be in a little bit of a shock as they will no longer be on a team with vastly more talent than the majority of its competitors. DeMarcus Cousins has been in the NBA five seasons and he still hasn’t played with two guys as talented as John Wall and Eric Bledsoe.

The point is that each and every one of them will have to stand on their own as prospects. There are no package deals at the NBA level, no one who can cover for everyone else’s mistakes. When you are drafting from a John Calipari team, you want to make sure you are taking guys based off their talent level and skill-set not their proximity to greatness at the NCAA level. So how do the seven guys from this year’s team stack up with each other?

1) Karl Towns

Towns is the best player to come through Lexington since Anthony Davis. At 7’0 250 with a 7’3 wingspan, he has the size of a center and the speed of a guard. And while he spent most of the season playing in the post, he showcased a very well-developed perimeter game on the All-Star circuit last season and he seems like exactly the type of versatile big man in demand in the modern NBA. You can use Towns as a PF or a C and expect him to be an elite player on both sides of the ball and you can fit him into almost any role in any system and not worry too much about the transition from NCAA. In my mind, Towns is the clear No. 1 prospect in this year’s draft and he’s the one guy I would take regardless of whoever else I already had on my roster.

2) Willie Cauley-Stein

The rare Kentucky player who wasn’t a McDonald’s All-American, Cauley-Stein is all the proof you need that Calipari is doing a lot more than just rolling the ball out on the floor and letting elite recruits win games for him. At 7’0 240 with a 7’2 wingspan, Cauley-Stein came into school as an extremely raw big man who was more comfortable playing football than basketball. Over the last three seasons, Calipari has harnessed his athleticism on defense while slowly turning him into a relatively smooth player who won’t kill you on the offensive end of the floor.

Anyone drafting Cauley-Stein is doing so for his defensive ability, primarily on the pick-and-roll. The modern NBA is all about isolating big man and forcing them to defend in space and few 7’0 in the history of the sport have ever moved laterally as quickly as Cauley-Stein. Calipari even used him a perimeter stopper this season on PG’s, SG’s and SF’s. The question for whoever drafts him is making him fit on offense, as he is likely never going to be the type of back-to-the-basket scorer that can punish a team for going small. The easy solution is to put him in a spread pick-and-roll offense that allows him to catch alley oops at the rim and kill people on the offensive glass. The worry is that he ends up on a slow-paced team with a lot of size and not a lot of shooting that doesn’t let him play in space and tries to make him into something he is not.

3) Trey Lyles

Lyles might be the most underrated of the Kentucky players because he was forced to sacrifice the most for the good of the team this season. Once Alex Poythress went down with an ACL injury, Lyles was the only one of their big men with the ability to play on the perimeter as a SF, forcing him out of his natural position of PF. As a result, Lyles rarely got the chance to drive against a spread floor or post up smaller players around the rim, the two main ways he will be utilized at the next level. At 6’10 235 with a 7’3 wingspan, Lyles has prototypical size for a PF and his time on the perimeter at Kentucky prepared him for the way the position is changing in the NBA. If he can ever develop a consistent three-point shot, he could be as good a player as any in this draft. Lyles is a guy with Top 5-Top 10 potential who could be available deep into the first round.

4) Devin Booker

Booker was fantastic as a freshman and he played a huge role for Kentucky but he’s the first guy on this list I’d be a little worried about whether the flaws in his game were being minimized by being on such a talented team. As a SG, there’s no situation you would rather play in than with big men who demand double teams in the paint and move the ball and PG’s who control tempo and create shots for you in the half-court. At 6’6 205 with a 6’6 wingspan, he’s not an elite athlete and he doesn’t have the type of length to allow him to be a defensive stopper on high-level NBA wing players. Booker is a lights out shooter with a good feel for the game who could conceivably walk into a role in an NBA rotation but there are SG’s in this draft with more tools who weren’t in as advantageous a position at the NCAA level.

5) Dakari Johnson

Johnson has snuck pretty far below the radar in his two seasons at Kentucky but he clearly has potential. At 7’0 255 with a 7’0 wingspan, he’s a wide-bodied bruiser with a developed low-post game who has been tested on defense by going up against some of the best big men in the country over the last three years. (He played at the same high school as Joel Embiid) Johnson’s per minute numbers indicate that he has the potential to be a decent rim protector (2.6 blocks per-40 minutes) although he may never have the footspeed to extend too far out on the perimeter on defense.

More important for Johnson than when he will be drafted is where. The ideal scenario would be a team with a defensive scheme built around a massive 5 who falls back in the paint on defense - think backing up Roy Hibbert or Andrew Bogut. The worry is that he ends up on a career path similar to Daniel Orton, the forgotten 5th first-rounder of Calipari’s first draft class in Lexington. Johnson is the Kentucky player I was most surprised declared since he could have improved his draft stock by thriving in a more featured role on offense as a junior.

6) Andrew Harrison

One half of one of the more polarizing guard tandems in the recent history of NCAA basketball, Andrew elected to declare for the draft despite shooting 38% from the field. At 6’5 210 with a 6’8 wingspan, his main selling point is his size. The problem is that he lacks NBA-caliber explosion which means he struggles to create efficient shots off the dribble, finish around the rim and stay in front of smaller players on defense. The key for him to stick at the next level is to refine his shooting, playmaking and overall feel for the game since he’s never going to be a great athlete. Forget the recruiting hype. This is a guy who would have really benefited from polishing his game over four years in college. As is, he’s got an uphill battle to make an NBA roster and crack an NBA rotation as a second-round pick. Regardless of where he ends up being taken, expect to see a lot of him in the D-League next season.

7) Aaron Harrison

The basic problem for Aaron is that he has all of the negative of his twin brother in terms of decision-making, shooting and athleticism and none of the positives. At 6’6 215 with a 6’8 wingspan, he has fairly average size for an NBA SG and no real calling card for establishing himself at the next level besides the ability to hit clutch shots - ask Acie Law how much that matters if you can’t even get on the floor in the NBA. He does have a chance to eventually crack an NBA roster since 6’6 guards who can shoot and put the ball on the floor will always intrigue teams. From the looks of it, though, he’s going to have to post really good efficiency numbers in the D-League before he’s going to get a shot at the next level.

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/237372/The-NBA-Future-Of-The-Kentucky-Seven

 

[jjs07]

Meanwhile, Okafor’s skills are more suited to an NBA that doesn’t exist anymore.

It's really hard to disagree with this. Some players are born a generation too early, some too late.

Then he'd be the perfect player for Randy Wittman.

 

[awwsome]

Really liking Lyles and I think he should be in the top ten, somebody is going to get a steal with him.

Watching him since HS, I love how he's gotten his body right and expanded his game.

I think he's going to develop a 3pt shot after his first couple years and be a really good stretch 4 for a playoff team throughout his career.