The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

[jjs07]

Really liking Lyles and I think he should be in the top ten, somebody is going to get a steal with him.

Watching him since HS, I love how he's gotten his body right and expanded his game.

I think he's going to develop a 3pt shot after his first couple years and be a really good stretch 4 for a playoff team throughout his career.

Lyles is the exact guy I want for the Wizards, but I doubt he'll be around by the time they pick.

 

[awwsome]

Would LOVE him playing on the Wizards. (Long as they fire Whitman)


Playing with Wall and Beal would be perfect for him, dude would get so many great mid range looks via Wall penetration and Beal stretching out defenses.


They also gotta part with Nene and Pierce, both dudes are done.

 

[seymore cake]

Really liking Lyles and I think he should be in the top ten, somebody is going to get a steal with him.

Watching him since HS, I love how he's gotten his body right and expanded his game.

I think he's going to develop a 3pt shot after his first couple years and be a really good stretch 4 for a playoff team throughout his career.

Lyles is the exact guy I want for the Wizards, but I doubt he'll be around by the time they pick.

While he wasn't able to showcase all his talent, I think that playing the 3 this year for UK is going to prove to be a blessing in disguise as he moves forward.

Shorty is so damn versatile :x

 

[awwsome]

^^^^

Was thinking the same thing fam.

 

[jjs07]

Really liking Lyles and I think he should be in the top ten, somebody is going to get a steal with him.

Watching him since HS, I love how he's gotten his body right and expanded his game.

I think he's going to develop a 3pt shot after his first couple years and be a really good stretch 4 for a playoff team throughout his career.

Lyles is the exact guy I want for the Wizards, but I doubt he'll be around by the time they pick.

While he wasn't able to showcase all his talent, I think that playing the 3 this year for UK is going to prove to be a blessing in disguise as he moves forward.

Shorty is so damn versatile :x

Yeah....blessing in disguise.

I also wonder, depending on matchups, would he be able to play some 5 in the NBA?

On an unrelated note, what's the word on Frank Kaminsky? Is he a lock for the lottery?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I think Big Frank goes late lottery. One of these fringe playoff teams or the Rockets would be a good look for him.

 

[pmatic]

Dekker's athleticism key at NBA level

WARP Projection: 2.1 (15th among players in top 100)
Comparables: James Anderson (95.5), Wayne Ellington (92.2), Terrence Ross (90.5), Chase Budinger (90.5)
Strengths: 2P%, Shooting, TO%, PF%
Weaknesses: FTA%, Rebound%, Steal%

The analytics perspective

Dekker's incredible NCAA tournament run didn't do much to change his projection, which is built on three full seasons of data and is trained to overlook outliers like Dekker's 50 percent shooting over Wisconsin's five wins (he then shot 0-of-6 in the final). Don't expect that kind of shooting in the NBA; Dekker made just 34.8 percent of 3-point attempts in his NCAA career, and shooting only scores as a strength because Dekker attempted a high number of 3s per game.

Still, Dekker always has been rated better by WARP projection until the scouting consensus caught up over the past month. He's a high-percentage 2-point shooter for a perimeter player (63.9 percent this season, 59.1 percent career) and an efficient player because he turns the ball over so rarely -- just 7.3 percent of his plays this season ended in turnovers.

Projecting Dekker to the NBA is a tad tricky because there are so few good comparisons for him. Most small forwards who enter the league are either floor stretchers or elite athletes, and Dekker doesn't fall into either of those groups (he's a below-average rebounder for a small forward, and his steal rate was troublingly low in Bo Ryan's conservative defense). If he makes it as a pro -- and his unorthodox strengths suggest he can -- Dekker will create a new mold all his own.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

At Wisconsin, the 6-foot-9 Dekker was a very good player in a system that was designed to exploit his strengths. He posted smaller players and took bigger players off the dribble away from the basket.

In the NBA, Dekker is likely to spend much of his time at small forward where he will see better athletes night in and night out in the NBA, and that will be his biggest challenge. With many teams going to smaller lineups during parts of games, he will find himself playing some power forwards as well.

Also, where will Dekker hang his hat offensively in the NBA? If it is as a deep shooter, he'll have to improve a shooting stroke -- he made 35 percent of his career 3s at Wisconsin. And, he was just a 69 percent free throw shooter during his Badgers career. If he shows that he can make shots for teams in workouts, it will help his draft stock.

As a small forward, Dekker will have to improve his one-on-one game. He has shown that he can attack the basket in straight line drives, but much of his effective one-on-one game was a result of attacking bigger, slower defenders in college. His ability to create his own shot will come with improved ballhandling skills.

While he made 75 percent of his shots at the rim, it is hard to imagine that he'll be able to consistently score over length in the NBA. Much of his offense at the basket came from post up mismatches exploited adroitly by coach Bo Ryan. He also led the Badgers with 29 put-back baskets this season, which speaks, in part, to Dekker's effort level.

Defensively, Dekker, like most rookies, will be challenged. He will find himself guarding quick, athletic players at the small forward position. And, at 220 pounds, there will a limited percentage of power forwards he will be able to defend.

Coming out of a winning system at Wisconsin and playing for a coach who preached team basketball and fundamentals will be intangibles that will only help Dekker. But ultimately his success as an NBA player will be in carving out one superior skill that will help a team. That's the question that needs to be answered.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Dekker has been a favorite of the analytics crowd since his freshman season and has won over plenty of traditional scouts along the way. Blessed with size, toughness, very good athleticism and a complete skill set that allows him to do damage on the perimeter and in the paint, Dekker is one of the more complete prospects in the draft.

His coming out party at the LeBron Camp this summer was muted somewhat by early season injuries and inconsistency. Dekker sometimes looked the part of a lottery pick and sometimes he didn't look like he'd make the league at all.

His strong play in the NCAA Tournament has clearly helped his draft stock. He started the season ranked at No. 18 on our Big Board and slid as low as No. 25 on our last Big Board before the tournament. But his sweet shooting (a major question mark for scouts) and swagger in the tournament has given scouts a glimpse of what Dekker could be if he reaches his ceiling -- a devastating forward who can guard and score against just about anyone. If he has great workouts, you should see Dekker land somewhere in the No. 13 to No. 20 range.

"I saw him at LeBron," one scout said. "And I thought he was the best kid out there. He's been injured some this year. Wisconsin's system doesn't always use him the right way. He isn't free to just attack which is when I love him best. That kid you saw in the tournament? That's the kid we saw at LeBron and I think it's who he is. I like him better than Kelly Oubre Jr. or Stanley Johnson. I'd take him in the lottery for sure. Maybe the top 10."

-- Chad Ford

Johnson needs to develop at NBA level

WARP projection: 1.0 (43rd among players in top 100)
Comparables: DeAndre Jordan (96.5), Robin Lopez (95.6), JaVale McGee (94.5), Darrell Arthur (94.5)
Strengths: FTA%
Weaknesses: Shoot, Block%, PF%

The analytics perspective

In many ways, Dakari Johnson is effectively a one-and-done prospect, though he spent two years at Kentucky. Because of John Calipari's enviable frontcourt depth, Johnson played just 1,185 total minutes, about the same as Jahlil Okafor played as a freshman. And because he's young for his class, Johnson is similar in age to many one-and-done players (teammate Karl-Anthony Towns, for example, is just three months older).

So NBA teams will have to project Johnson, and his offensive rebounding is a good starting point. His projected offensive rebound percentage ranks third among players in the top 100, and it's tough to tell whether Johnson's weaker defensive rebounding is the product of his teammates or truly a weakness. On the negative side, Johnson is a poor shot-blocker for a 7-footer, and he'll have to maintain this season's free throw improvement (from 44.7 percent to 62.5 percent) given how often he gets fouled around the basket. Johnson's similar players suggest he's a good flier early in the second round.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

The NBA likes size and youth when it comes to developing players, and Johnson has both. He is nearly 7 feet tall and 255 pounds, and won't turn 20 years old until September.

Johnson may be a below-average NBA athlete at the center position at this point. And offensively he plays below the rim. Those are both red flags. But give him credit over the past year in reshaping his body and improving his conditioning. It showed in his improved stamina and his ability to run the floor better.

Although not explosive around the basket, he carves out space well and became a good position rebounder. He was 44th in the country in offensive rebound rate, impressive when you remember that he was crashing the glass with teammates equal in size and more athletic. In short, his effort was excellent.

Another thing I liked about Johnson is that he is an excellent screener and he "rolls with force" to the basket in screen-and-roll plays. While not great, Johnson's free throw shooting improved from 45 percent to 63 percent in one year. That's a positive sign about his work ethic.

I see Johnson getting drafted somewhere between No. 25 and No. 40. If an NBA team wants to develop a young big man with size and work ethic, he may be their guy.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Johnson came into Kentucky as a top-10 high school recruit, but he's always been overshadowed by the likes of Willie Cauley-Stein, Julius Randle and, this year, Karl-Anthony Towns. Johnson has NBA size and a strong frame, but his lack of length, lack of explosive athleticism and so-so conditioning have always held him back from being an elite prospect.

While he's an efficient scorer in the post and can clearly carve out space, NBA teams aren't necessarily dying for big men that don't protect the rim and don't shoot a high percentage at the rim.

"He's serviceable," one GM told ESPN.com. "I had really hoped he'd go back to school for another year and get a chance to get in even better shape and then be the guy for Kentucky. I think it would've helped his development and draft stock so much. Instead you have a kid that looks like, at the very best, a backup in our league."

Johnson is likely to go in the No. 25 to No. 40 range in this year's draft.

-- Chad Ford

The Harrisons.

Andrew Harrison has size, little else

WARP Projection: -0.6 (85th among players in top 100)
Comparables: Ramon Sessions (93.5), Marcus Williams (89.5), Vander Blue (89.0), Deron Williams (88.6)
Strengths: FTA%
Weaknesses: Usage, 2P%, Rebound%, Steal%, PF%

The analytics perspective

Ranked 5th in the ESPN 100 entering Kentucky, Harrison never produced at that level during his two college seasons, and the 'Cats offense often seemed more efficient with backup Tyler Ulis at the controls last season. While he cut down his turnovers last season, posting an assist-to-turnover ratio of better than 2-to-1, Harrison is never going to be a natural playmaker. That makes it imperative that he excel as a scorer, and that simply wasn't the case.

Harrison got to the basket at a decent rate but struggled to finish there, leading to 37.4 percent career 2-point shooting in his college career. The only player in my college database with a worse projected 2-point percentage in the NBA than Harrison was Pepperdine's Mychel Thompson, who played only briefly in the league after going undrafted. The point guards who have succeeded with slightly better 2-point percentages have generally been pass-first types like T.J. Ford and Phil Pressey who also pressure the basketball, something Harrison doesn't do. That makes it hard to see a role for him in the NBA.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

It's hard to imagine that a Kentucky Wildcat can be "under the radar" but that's where Andrew Harrison finds himself in this NBA Draft. As a point guard he is currently in the draft's deepest position. One that starts with Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell and goes from there.

Harrison has excellent positional size at 6-foot-6 and, while he is certainly not a speed burner, is not afraid to use his size and strength to bully his way to the basket. He attempted 159 free throws this past season, making them at a 79 percent rate.

Unfortunately for Harrison, he has not yet developed a mid-range pull-up game. Often, he drives to the hoop with more intent to get fouled then to make shots. He made only 50 percent of his at-the-rim attempts and 26 percent of his two-point field goal attempts, according to hoop-math.com.

Harrison did make 38 percent of his three point shots, and his free throw shooting is an indication that he can become a player who can make standstill three-pointers in the NBA.

I also like Harrison's willingness to pass the ball, his size, and his good passing vision. He was involved in screen-and-rolls on 25 percent of offensive possessions. Good, not great, success.

Harrison's average speed and quickness will be problematic in the NBA at the league's most dynamic athletic position. And while the Wildcats played outstanding team defense, the multitude of switching situations on the perimeter often lulls a player into defending with less intensity. That was the case with Harrison.

Where Harrison gets drafted is still a mystery, but I am higher on him than I thought I would be after studying him on tape. I would be surprised if he is not on an NBA roster next fall.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Harrison began his career at Kentucky with massive expectations. Prior to the Nike Hoop Summit in April of 2013, Harrison was widely regarded as a top 5 pick in the NBA Draft. But the Hoop Summit would be the start of a long, devastating decline in his draft stock. Harrison's poor body language, selfishness and so-so play at the Hoop Summit rubbed Team USA officials and the plethora of NBA scouts and GMs who attended the wrong way. They worried about his ability to get past people, to see the floor well enough and unselfish enough to function as a lead guard. His jump shot was erratic on top of it.

A so-so freshman season torpedoed his stock until he came on strong in the NCAA tournament and led Kentucky all the way to the championship game. If Harrison had declared last year, he was still in that first-round bubble range and likely would've snuck into the late first round. Instead, he and his brother Aaron decided to return, hoping another year at Kentucky would vaunt them both back into the lottery.

It didn't happen. Harrison was often outplayed by 5-foot-9 freshman Tyler Ulis early in the season, and any scouts left on the bandwagon began fleeing. Much like last season, Harrison got hot again toward the end of the year and was excellent for Kentucky down the stretch. He would keep the Wildcats in a game during the first half, only to fall apart in the second. His strong play toward the end of the season did get some scouts to give him a second look, but is it enough?

"I don't know what to say that hasn't been said," one GM told ESPN.com "He's big. I like his size. I like his ability to get to the free throw line. And I've seen him be an effective defender. I just don't know what he does well besides being big. He doesn't have the speed to blow by guys. He's a streaky shooter. I don't see a lot of floor leadership from him. The body language stuff is still an issue. Do you take a shot at him at some point in the second round? Maybe. But here's the deal. He thinks he's better than he is. That's a problem. In the second round, the guys that succeed typically are humble, are willing to play a role and do whatever it takes to fit into a team. For two years I felt like we watched Andrew and Aaron try to do it their way."

Look for Harrison to go in the No. 35 to No. 55 range in the 2015 NBA Draft.

-- Chad Ford

Aaron Harrison not an elite shooter

WARP projection: 0.1 (67th among players in top 100)
Comparables: Terrico White (98.0), Doron Lamb (96.1), Tim Hardaway Jr. (94.5), Daequan Cook (94.0)
Strengths: TO%, PF%
Weaknesses: Usage, 2P%, Rebound%, Assist%

The analytics perspective

While his brother was the more hyped prospect entering college, Aaron Harrison was somewhat more productive at Kentucky, giving him an easier path to contributing in the NBA. Harrison wasn't a great outside shooter at the college level, making just 31.6 percent of his 3-pointers as a sophomore, but his combination of high-volume shooting and a solid free throw percentage (78.7 percent) suggest he can develop into a capable NBA 3-point shooter.

Harrison probably will need to be a knockdown shooter to stick, because the rest of his game is substandard. He was a poor rebounder and distributor for a shooting guard, and while his 2-point percentages were much better than his brother's (he never had the same trouble finishing), they were still below average among shooting guards.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

After much hype coming in, Harrison had a solid, if not spectacular, two seasons at Kentucky. He'll long be remembered in Lexington for the many clutch shots he hit for the Wildcats, including the three-pointer that put his team into last season's NCAA championship game.

Unfortunately, NBA people are not sentimental, so the 6-foot-6 shooting guard will enter the draft with many questions surrounding him.

The first question: Is he a good enough shooter? Harrison shot 32 percent from behind the arc this season and 35 percent inside the arc on 2-point jump shots. Not only is this projected to be below average, it is also the biggest part of his game, as 80 percent of his attempts were jump shots. To be fair, he did made 78 percent of his free throws.

His athleticism is also a question mark. Harrison is not an explosive athlete and finished only 54 percent of his shots at the rim. And his ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts was a paltry 27 percent this season.

Harrison was an average defender who was actually hurt by the fact that Kentucky switched so much. While it was an effective strategy, because the Wildcats were one of the elite defensive teams of the modern college basketball era, it didn't give Harrison the chance to show that he could be a defensive stopper.

Finally, both Aaron and Andrew Harrison came to Kentucky with questions about their attitudes, especially on the court. That was a near consensus opinion. I saw little when I watched Kentucky play and practice that would validate that opinion. But that aspect of Aaron Harrison's draft résumé will be closely scrutinized by teams.

Ultimately, an NBA team may see great value in Harrison as he falls in the draft. While he may not be the talent he was projected to be when he was in high school, he'll have the opportunity to prove doubters wrong once again, but don't be shocked if he slips into the second round.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Aaron Harrison was never ranked quite as highly as his brother Andrew. They are the same size and, in many ways, similar players, but Andrew was labeled a point guard, which made him intriguing because of his size. Aaron was labeled a 2-guard, where suddenly the size advantage was gone.

Aaron's main claim to fame was that he was a better shooter than his brother -- something that hasn't really panned out to be true the past two seasons. He takes more 3s and has made some huge clutch ones for Kentucky in his career, but in his two years at Kentucky he shot 35 percent as a freshman and 32 percent as a sophomore from 3. Those aren't the numbers of an elite shooter -- especially when you factor in how many wide-open looks Aaron would get every night. However, Aaron often plays and shoots as if he is elite.

The rest of Aaron's game is pretty pedestrian. He's a solid defender and he's very competitive, but there isn't one identifiable NBA skill you can really point to.

"He's a shooting guard who loves to shoot, but can't shoot," one NBA scout said. "No one in the NBA needs someone like that. What else to you want me to say?"

-- Chad Ford

 

[User 37837]

Destroyed the twins

 

[wavycrocket]

Been saying this about the Harrison's from day 1.

They came to play here in Baltimore their senior yr in Hs, and no one was really impressed. What the crowd saw were two 6'6 shooting guards who played buddy ball, streaky shooters, and average athletes. Their main advantage was size, which everyone could see could be neutralized at next levels.

One was labeled a "point guard" and regarded as a one and done top 5 pick, while the other was the "scoring 2-guard" and labeled as a one and done top 10 pick.

After that showing, then the subsequent hoop summit etc...it became really clear that these guys weren't can't miss prospects.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

i still think they can be decent role players at the next level. good second rounders potentially.

 

[dacomeup]

i still think they can be decent role players at the next level. good second rounders potentially.

I don't see a translatable skill that they hone in on to make that happen. PG is big, but going to be slower than all other PGs. The SG can't shoot. Don't have makings of guys who stick IMO. Average athletes too.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

we'll see. i dont think they'll be great by any means, but serviceable possibly for 10 minutes a night.

 

[ballinsam23]

Dekker reminds me of a Keith Van Horn, Tim Thomas, Gallinari type player

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

What ever happened to KVH?

 

[pmatic]

@James_Ham CK Podcast Extra brought to you by @JiffyLubeSac : @SHowardCooper on the 2015 NBA Draft http://shar.es/1g8kym

 

[pmatic]

What ever happened to KVH?

He's in Colorado running a basketball club. http://www.coloradopremierbasketball.com/colorado_basketball_club_profile/executive_director

 

[denni5themenace]

What ever happened to KVH?

diamond bar's finest

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Dekker reminds me of a Keith Van Horn, Tim Thomas, Gallinari type player

You know Dekker can't shoot right?

The guys you mentioned were all dead eye's 3 point shooters.

 

[ballinsam23]

Dekker is an in game shooter. He can shoot, sure he may be streaky just like those guys were, but to say he CANT shoot is a bit far fetched.
50% fg and 35% from 3pt for his college career is solid, and will be respected if he pulls it off at the next level.

Gallo isnt a shooter. He never was one. Dantoni blew that way outta proportion.

 

[mr marcus]

Dekker is a late 1st rd talent at best ...going to a veteran squad would be beneficial for him

 

[pmatic]

Dekker is an in game shooter. He can shoot, sure he may be streaky just like those guys were, but to say he CANT shoot is a bit far fetched.
50% fg and 35% from 3pt for his college career is solid, and will be respected if he pulls it off at the next level.

Gallo isnt a shooter. He never was one. Dantoni blew that way outta proportion.

Dekker has shot 32 and 33% from three the last two seasons, so his freshman year might have just been an outlier. And he just broke 70% from the free throw line for the first time this past season. But to his credit, he's really converting inside the three point line.

 

[awwsome]

Keith Van Horn

Some team probably going to draft Dekker higher than he should be off the NCAA hype and his combine numbers.

 

[kn0wledgeable]

Some team probably going to draft Dekker higher than he should be off the NCAA hype and his combine numbers.

UTAH of course

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

Some team probably going to draft Dekker higher than he should be off the NCAA hype and his combine numbers.

UTAH of course

Spurs or Cle.

 

[nick.]

@ShamsCharania: Ohio State freshman D'Angelo Russell plans to declare for the NBA Draft within the next two days, deciding upon agency, sources tell RealGM.

@D_Russ0: #False[emoji]128175[/emoji]