The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

if we get Okafor we better somehow get a player like Ibaka or Taj Gibson to cover for his ***.
 
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Russell projects as top-5 pick, but lack of athleticism could limit upside

WARP Projection: 2.9 (2nd among players in the top 100)
Comparables: Brandon Knight (92.0), Bradley Beal (91.8), Xavier Henry (90.8), Jerryd Bayless (90.8)
Strengths: Usage, Shooting, Rebound%, Assist%
Weaknesses: 2P%, FTA%

The analytics perspective

Russell tops all NCAA prospects in projected WARP, with one of the 10 best projections for any freshman in my database back through 2003. His strength is his versatility. Per Sports-Reference.com, Russell is the only major-conference freshman to average at least five rebounds and five assists per game since 2009-10. (D.J. Cooper did so as a mid-major freshman.) Russell's statistics suggest he should be able to play point guard in the NBA. In fact, his projected assist rate would put him in the top 25 percent of all point guards in my database.

At first, Russell might not be an efficient scorer. The lone red flag in his stats is middling accuracy from inside the arc (47.9 percent). And unlike James Harden, to whom he's frequently compared, Russell is below average at getting to the line, so he'll have to shoot a high percentage from 3-point range to maintain a solid true shooting percentage. Of course, Russell is barely 19, so in time he should develop into a well-rounded scoring threat who can also make opponents pay as a passer.

The biggest challenge might be finding a good statistical comparison for Russell. Since Harden was a different player in college -- Harden got to the line more frequently and had a better steal rate, but did not hand out assists nearly as frequently -- nobody is particularly close at the same age. Taking out age as a factor, Russell scores as most similar to Damian Lillard (96.0).

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

Ohio State's Russell may be the most skilled player in June's NBA draft. But it's unlikely that the 19-year-old will be the first pick, even if the NBA has become more and more about 3-point shots, layups and free throws -- and he happens to facilitate all three with his shooting and passing.

At 6-foot-5 and armed with a 6-9 wing span, Russell has a unique ability to control a college basketball game with his scoring, passing, basketball intelligence and leadership. But most impressive is that he already possesses the poise and countenance of a 10-year NBA veteran.

Virtually everything the left-handed Russell accomplished for Ohio State this season was done with great efficiency. In fact, he made spectacular plays look simple and made simple plays, from a coach's perspective, look spectacular.

Let's start with his passing. Although Russell was the leading freshman scorer in the country at 19.3 points per game, his incredible vision and confidence to throw passes into tight spots impress me the most (he averaged 5.0 assists).

Russell reminds me of something I used to tell my teams: "Great passers throw passes to teammates who often don't even realize that they are open." So many times this past season he gifted teammates easy scoring opportunities with his passing.

Hall of Fame coach Pete Carril used to say, "The quality of your shots is directly related to the quality of your passes." In this regard, Russell delivers even the simple fundamental pass to an open teammate's shooting pocket on time and on target. There's no wasted movement.

In addition to Russell's passing, he is a prolific scorer and an outstanding shooter with NBA range. He has an effortless shooting stroke with great economy of movement. In his lone Buckeyes season, he shot 41 percent from the 3-point line. But most impressive to me is his accuracy from behind the arc while on the move in the open court. He has been just as accurate in transition as he has been in the half court, shooting 43 percent in fast-break situations.

Russell is not a "one-armed bandit," but his tendency as a young player is to drive right to a pull-up jump shot or drive left (his strength) to get to the rim or shoot his pull-up jumper. However, he is further along in the development of his "weak" hand than most NBA prospects at his age.

Early in the Buckeyes' season, utilizing Russell in screen-and-rolls was not a huge part of their offensive strategy. But that changed; he wound up utilizing 25 percent of his own possessions in the screen-and-roll game and was in the top 10 percent in the country in efficiency, according to Synergy Sports. Given his passing, ballhandling, basketball acumen, size and shooting ability, this should become a major strength once he gains experience in the NBA.

There is only one area of concern for Russell, in my opinion. His athleticism is not at an elite NBA level right now -- and may never be. While he is a tall and rangy guard, he will need to find a way to defend the dynamic athletes in NBA backcourts. Staying in front of quick point guards and guarding big, physical shooting guards will be his greatest challenge early in his career.

Fortunately for him, as a 19-year-old in the league, his youth likely comes with long-term physical development. Time is on his side.

When I watched Ohio State practice in late December, I was struck by Russell's maturity and by the way he directed the practice as a player. He was in complete control without the need to show he was. That leadership style, given his basketball talent and his age, is an intangible that is hard to master.

Russell was a star shooting through college. He is off to the NBA, in part, because his production has already surpassed his promise. And his promise is sky-high.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Russell began the season as an intriguing combo guard known for his knack for scoring. With a great season, many scouts thought he could be a first-round pick. He has dramatically outperformed those early expectations to the point that he's been in the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick.

Russell's elite 3-point shooting and floor vision have increased his draft stock. Russell exhibits a smooth release on his jumper and can get it off from just about anywhere on the floor. But his passing has also caught the eyes of many scouts. While he might not be a "pure" point guard, he's been the most creative passer in college basketball at times and sees the floor at an elite level.

If he projects as a point guard at the next level, then his size becomes another major plus for Russell. While he lacks elite quickness and explosion athletically, his size helps him get where he wants to on the floor. If he projects as a 2-guard, he's just average size for his position.

Overall, scouts love Russell's feel for the game and his approach. He projects as a potential dominant scorer/ball handler in the mold of James Harden. However, his lack of hyper-athleticism projects him just below the other top prospects in the draft -- Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns and Emmanuel Mudiay. Look for Russell to go in the No. 2 to No. 4 range on draft night.

"He's so smooth," one scout said of Russell. "He just knows how to play. I know there are weaknesses and I've heard some guys worry he's going to be Evan Turner. But he's such a better shooter and a more creative passer than Turner. If Turner had those two skills, he'd be an All-Star. Sometimes there's a fine line between role player and All-Star in the NBA. Russell crosses that line toward All-Star."

-- Chad Ford
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...rofile-dangelo-russell-draft-stock-pro-future
 
Stanley Johnson and Mario Hezonja have both declared for the draft.
Will Stanley Johnson's physicality translate at NBA level?

WARP Projection: 1.9 (21st among players in top 100)
Comparables: Luol Deng (97.9), Thaddeus Young (96.8), Marvin Williams (96.5), Carmelo Anthony (95.7)
Strengths: Steal percentage
Weaknesses: None

The analytics perspective

Among the group of freshmen forwards expected to head to the NBA, which also includes Kansas' Kelly Oubre and Duke's Justise Winslow, Johnson boasts the best WARP projection. Although shooting was touted as a weakness, Johnson hit a respectable 37.1 percent from beyond the arc and backed it up with 74.2 percent free throw shooting. Instead, despite his size and strength, Johnson's offensive issue was finishing. As Fran will explore, he made just 52.7 percent of his shots around the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com.

Johnson didn't make a huge dent in the box score elsewhere. He was a fairly average rebounder for a small forward and blocked shots at a below-average rate for the position. The exception is Johnson's solid steal rate, projected second-best among players 6-foot-7 or taller in Chad's top 100. Historically, steal rate has been a good indicator of NBA success.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

Stanley Johnson is a bully on the basketball court. ESPN.com's No. 7-ranked high school player in the Class of 2014 has been since his freshman year at Mater Dei High School.

The 6-foot-7, 245-pound freshman at Arizona, who has been compared to Metta World Peace, Kawhi Leonard and, yes, even LeBron James because of his size and strength, was the Wildcats' leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. The big question is: Can he continue his physical ways at the NBA level?

Like every other likely lottery pick, Johnson has a lot of strengths and some areas of his game that need improvement. But one of his huge advantages is he will play his entire rookie year as a 19-year-old, as he doesn't turn 20 until May 29, 2016. The level of success for teenagers recently selected in the lottery is high.

Johnson, at the NBA level, will be an average athlete for the small forward position. He does not have great lateral quickness, which affects him as a perimeter defender, and being an average two-footed jumper has led to his being a 40 percent shooter at the rim in half-court situations, according to Hoop-Math.com.

What stands out to me about Johnson is his high energy level. He has always been an aggressive, attacking player.

In transition, Johnson is dangerous. For his size, he is a very good ball handler in the open court.

In the half-court, Johnson's aggressiveness sometimes gets him in trouble. Early in the season, he was running over defenders in the lane because he tended to play out of control in traffic. Not surprisingly for a freshman, he had more turnovers than assists.

A major part of Johnson's success is that his aggressiveness manifests itself in many trips to the foul line. He is drawing 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes, according to kenpom.com. That has turned into 178 free throw attempts so far this season.

Where Johnson has shown improvement is his outside shooting. He made 37 percent of his 3-point attempts (though that dipped to 29 percent in Pac-12 play), and he made 44 percent of his 2-point jump shots, according to Hoop-Math.com.

Some have questioned his shooting stroke, but I see nothing in it that can't be corrected. First of all, his form is compact and has few moving parts, which makes it easily repeatable. When he finishes with a high follow-through, the arc of his shot improves his accuracy.

Eventually, at the NBA level, he will learn that spot-up shooting will become a strength. I would love to see him trust his one-dribble or two-dribble pull-up jump shot because finishing at the rim early in his NBA career will be challenging.

One area where Johnson can take advantage of his strength in the NBA would be in developing a post-up game, a la the Blazers' 6-foot-5 Wesley Matthews. Because Arizona has a plethora of players who clog the lane on offense, Johnson has been used in post-up situations in less than four percent of his offensive possessions, according to Synergy.

Perimeter defense will present another challenge for Johnson.

First of all, there were many possessions in Arizona's half-court defense early this past year on which Johnson had a lack of concentration with regard to team defense. Although that was an issue, it is a very common occurrence with young players, and it is something he can work to improve if he wants to play in the NBA.

The more important concern to me is lateral foot speed, which will affect his ability to defend dynamic NBA small forward athletes.

Luckily for Johnson, in his one season at Arizona under Miller, he received a defensive tutorial. Once he gets to the NBA and recognizes how critical it will be for him, he will embrace the chance to improve defensively.

I have been around Johnson at various All-Star camps, talked with him and talked with people who have coached him and know him. He has a couple major intangibles.

First of all, he is a proven winner. He is the only player to win four straight upper-division state titles in California, with a record of 135-5. He has also won three FIBA Gold medals for USA Basketball.

Secondly, he is a gym rat and worker. He has soaked up a season's worth of great coaching under Miller and his staff at Arizona. That type of coaching will continue in the NBA, so Johnson will have many opportunities to smooth out his weaknesses. Besides, he won't be the only NBA rookie with work to do.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Johnson came into his freshman season at Arizona with a rep of being the best wing prospect in the country. He won four straight state championships in high school, had the body of Metta World Peace as an 18-year-old and was already known for his toughness and maturity on the court.

For the most part, Johnson has lived up to the hype. He was Arizona's leading scorer as a freshman and has shown a fearlessness with the basketball that's rare for a player his age. Add in that he was actually a much better shooter than advertised, and Johnson looks like a lottery lock. But is he the best wing in the draft?

There are some holes. Scouts worry he isn't an elite athlete, that he struggles to finish at the rim and, despite a reputation as an elite defender, he takes plays off. They think he'll be in the league a long time, but some scouts wonder if he'll be more of a solid player than superstar. Look for Johnson to go as high as six and as low as 12.

"I want to love him," one GM said. "My scouts all loved him in high school. I've watched him live four times and every time come away with the same thought: 'He's pretty good.' But pretty good isn't going to make you a great NBA player. He's a good athlete, a good shooter, a good defender, a good motor. He has a great body but doesn't always use any of those skills to his advantage. If he were the athlete that [Justise] Winslow was, I'd love him. But he isn't, and I just feel he'll be pretty good. If those are your expectations, great. If they're higher, I think you're going to be disappointed."

-- Chad Ford
Hezonja one of draft's most versatile

WARP Projection: 1.5 (32nd among players in top 100)
Comparables: Evan Fournier (97.5), C.J. Miles (96.6), Sasha Pavlovic (96.1), Monta Ellis (96.0)
Strengths: 2P%, Shooting
Weaknesses: Usage, FTA%, TO%

The analytics perspective

After playing sparingly for FC Barcelona the past two seasons, Hezonja has grown into a key role this season at age 19, giving us enough data to project him to the NBA. While Hezonja's translated statistics suggest he can play competently right away, they don't necessarily indicate star potential.

The biggest red flag in Hezonja's statistics is how infrequently he gets to the free throw line. Hezonja has attempted just six free throws in 417 minutes of ACB play this season. His free throw rate has been far better in Euroleague games (24 in 339 minutes), but still Hezona's projected NBA rate -- 4.2 percent of his possessions -- is the lowest among potential 2015 draftees. Generally speaking, players with such low free throw rates tend to be limited to smaller roles. The only NBA regular in 2014-15 with a free throw rate below 5 percent and an above-average usage rate was Avery Bradley of the Boston Celtics.

On the plus side, Hezonja figures to be efficient with the shots he does take. He's a strong 3-point shooter (better than 40 percent between ACB and Euroleague play) who is also highly effective inside the arc. Hezonja is making 57.5 percent of his 2-point attempts against Spanish competition. His projected NBA 2-point accuracy (47.6 percent) ranks second among perimeter players in the top 100 behind Wisconsin's Sam Dekker.

If teams are realistic about Hezonja's skill set, he has the potential to be a part of a good team in the NBA.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

Hezonja is the only player in this draft that is capable of winning an NBA dunk contest and an NBA 3-point contest someday.

He is an outstanding offensive player who plays with supreme confidence. Sometimes it seems he plays with too much confidence, but, as a coach, I'll take that any day of the week. And that confidence makes him a terrific prospect because it combines with his unique combination of athleticism, size and skill level for an NBA wing.

The 20-year-old Hezonja -- he turned 20 on Feb. 25 -- has been one of the best players in the world in his age group since 2011, though, until recently, there has been a lot of unfulfilled promise.

After signing with powerful FC Barcelona in 2012 as a 17-year-old, he has had to remain patient playing very little behind some of the best players in Europe. That has changed this year as his playing opportunities have grown.

At 6-foot-8, Hezonja possesses that coveted combination of athleticism, offensive skill level and age, which has attracted the interest of NBA teams. Recently he became only the fourth player in ACB history to shoot 8-for-8 behind the 3-point line in a game. In fact, he is currently shooting better than 40 percent behind the arc in both the ACB and in the Euroleague.

Hezonja will have little problem fitting in to the NBA athletically. At 6-8, he has the positional size for a shooting guard or a small forward and handles the ball well enough to create his own shot. But while he does not finish at the rim well, fearlessness is not the issue. He also has a tendency to force tough shots because of his extreme confidence.

Hezonja has, in effect, already been a pro for a number of years playing with professional teammates and receiving professional coaching, so his adjustment to the NBA will be easier than most college players. For example, he has been schooled in screen-and-roll basketball and already possesses good acumen for a 6-8 player who can handle the ball like a point forward.

Hezonja does not always do his work early on the defensive end. He gets caught flatfooted often in help-side situations, is a poor closeout defender and can be posted by physical wings. But when he is engaged, he has very good defensive instincts. He reads passing lanes well and often moves to where an offensive player is leading his teammate with a pass and comes up with the steal.

Maturity has been an issue at times for Hezonja but much of that can be attributed to his youth and a competitive nature that should eventually serve him well. He definitely plays with a chip on his shoulder. If he comes to the NBA with more questions than answers and is willing to learn what he does not know, the chances for a smooth adjustment will be easier. But he is a major talent.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Hezonja spent much of 2014 ranked as a lottery pick despite the fact that he rarely played for his team, FC Barcelona. However as the 2014 NBA draft neared, scouts began to get cold feet and ultimately Hezonja decided he was better off returning to Spain for another season.

It paid off. Big time. Hezonja finally started seeing regular minutes on Barcelona and scouts got a much deeper look at who he was as a prospect. He has been firmly in our top 10 all year and many scouts believe he might be the best wing talent in the draft.

While his numbers this year are modest: 8.4 PPG in 16 MPG -- what scouts see is an athletic wing who can stroke it from 3-point territory as well as put the ball on the floor and finish at the rim. When he gets regular minutes, he's aggressive and plays in attack mode. And his experience playing for an elite team in Europe means he has faced tougher competition night in and night out than any college player on our board.

"I really love him," one NBA scout told ESPN. "I love Winslow too. But I really think if this kid was in college we'd all be going crazy for him. He's tough, he's athletic, he shoots the s--- out of it. And the kid just knows how to play. He's going to be really, really good in the NBA. He's the first wing on my board."

Most teams have Duke's Justise Winslow ranked ahead of Hezonja, but look for Hezonja to go somewhere between the sixth and 10th pick.

-- Chad Ford
 
As I look at this draft closer, I really would want to get my hands on Mario Hezonja.

Paired right player development people I think there is a chance he could be the best player in the class.



Barcelona has been trying to hide him, they put him in a box, he has way more game than he's showed over there and if he was in college he would have laid waste to any league. There is significant risk but if you are looking for the greatest potential I would put him above Justice Winslow.

The physical tools, the skill, aggressiveness, the creativity I would want to take that risk if I was a bad team.
 
NBA 2K in real life, shooting sliders all the way down though. :lol:
See that's the beauty of basketball you can always get better. Who would've thought coming out of college Kidd and Vince would be top 10 all time that had anything to do with shooting.
 
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Really big on Super Mario.

Gotta love a 6'8 guy who can handle, shoot from deep, great athlete, create his own shot and already has been playing pro for years against the best talent outside the NBA.


I'd be all over him if I was Detroit.
 
I've been on the Super Mario train for about 4 weeks. I literally can't wait to see him murder these workouts.

Outside the top 5 guys who I think all are gonna really make an impact
Boom:
Mario Hezonja
Stanley
Big Frank

Busts:
Lyles
Oubre
 
:x bruh


ive never heard of the Mario kid until 5 mins ago and just watched his highlight. damn dude has bunnies.
 
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