The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

[frshstunna]

I liked Turner at the beginning of the season, thought he played well...but it seemed like he kinda played worse as the year went along but idk if that was him or just the overall team

 

[awwsome]

^^^^

I'd say it's a mix of both, I think he's going to have trouble dealing with NBA sized bigs and he doesn't really have an offensive game besides shooting.

 

[ValarMorghulis]

360 draft profiles from ESPN:

Turner is high risk, high reward

Turner isn't quite at that level as a prospect. His 2-point percentage (51.3 percent) was low for a college big man, and his poor steal rate (10 in 755 minutes) is also a bit of a red flag. Whatever team drafts Turner shouldn't expect immediate contributions, but in time he figures to develop into a unique big man with the ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor with his outside shooting. It's hard to find many college comparisons for that combination.

The scouting perspective

Fran Fraschilla: While Myles Turner is likely to fall somewhere in the NBA draft lottery, he will need to make major adjustments to his game that will take time. Because of his age, lack of strength and his body type, the physicality of the NBA will be a major issue early in his career.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_360profile_jarellmartin

Is this not my original point???

I said "fill the holes in their games" never about draft stock.

 

[ValarMorghulis]

Myles Turner, if he goes back to school and improves and dominates, would be a Top 3-5 pick in that god awful draft class.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

D League needs to be better used as a minor league.

Would kill the NCAA product even more but it would be the best thing for real prospects.

NBA is in bed with the NCAA for some reason so it won't happen.

whole game is messed up. kids should be allowed to sign endorsement deals in college and get paid off their name. i'd almost rather they take away the 1 year rule and instead if a kid gets drafted out of high school, he must spend at least 1 year in the d-league to refine his skills and what not.

 

[frshstunna]

Myles Turner, if he goes back to school and improves and dominates, would be a Top 3-5 pick in that god awful draft class.

Naw Texas looking shaky next year, dont even have a coach right now (they are talking to Shaka tho)..team results can affect draft stock too

 

[pmatic]

Turner would make sense with Orlando (could be their version of Ibaka) , but that's probably too big of a risk. Year 4 of the rebuild next season and they got to show more progress.

 

[awwsome]

I'm going WCS no question if I'm the Magic, he fits too well.

 

[Vincent Van Goat]

Vuch and WCS would be 

 compliment each other as well

Don't see the point in getting anyone else for where they'll be picking

 

[awwsome]

Exactly, WCS would turn them into a great defensive team and a better offensive team because they could hide Vucevic on the weaker big saving him energy for offense.



The Weeknd in the PnR with Vuc and WCS with Oladipo on the wing and Harris in the corner. :x

 

[req81]

I remember Poythress was supposed to go lottery [emoji]128514[/emoji][emoji]128514[/emoji]

 

[pmatic]

CBS Sports updated Big Board:

1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. Jahlil Okafor
3. Emmanuel Mudiay
4. D'Angelo Russell
5. Justise Winslow

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/prospect-rankings

 

[pmatic]

Tjarks:

Karl-Anthony Towns As A Specter Of The Past Or A Vision Of The Future

When it came to size and speed, Notre Dame didn’t have much of a chance of matching up with Kentucky in their Elite Eight game on Saturday. John Calipari’s team played two 7’0 for almost the entire game and didn’t start anyone under 6’6. Mike Brey’s team had only one guy above 6’7 in their rotation and their best shot-blocker and rebounder was a 6’5 wing whom they played at PF. If they let Kentucky dictate the terms of the game, they would have been run out of the gym. Instead, they executed Brey’s Giant Killer game-plan almost perfectly, narrowly losing a 68-66 thriller that came down to the final seconds.

Kentucky is an NBA team upfront with three starters - Karl Towns (7’0 250), Willie-Cauley Stein (7’0 240) and Trey Lyles (6’10 235) - projected to go in the lottery and two reserves - Dakari Johnson (7’0 255) and Marcus Lee (6’9 225) - who could end up going in the first round. It’s almost impossible to score 1-on-1 against the Wildcats, as their historic defense has propelled them to a 38-0 record and a chance at immortality. With Cauley-Stein on the perimeter and Towns on the block, they have an elite 7’0 defender at both layers of the defense. They make each other better - Towns' ability to protect the rim gives Cauley-Stein the freedom to roam so far from the basket while Cauley-Stein’s suffocating brand of perimeter D makes it easier for Towns to clean up any penetration that gets through.

They have so much size, length and athleticism that you cannot score on them with the inefficient offenses that most NCAA teams run. The only way to score on an NBA team is to run NBA offense, which is precisely what Notre Dame did on Saturday. They spread the floor, they ran multiple pick-and-rolls, they moved the ball and they knocked down open 3’s. Notre Dame vs. Kentucky was a 2015 version of Tim Duncan’s Spurs vs. the Seven Seconds or Less Suns.

Notre Dame plays archetypal 4-out basketball under Brey, with two guards who can shoot 3’s and alternate as primary ball-handlers (Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson), a stretch 4 who can shoot and put the ball on the floor (Pat Connaughton) and a 5 who can set screens and roll to the rim (Zach Auguste). Kentucky was able to corral them when they played isolation basketball, but when they were running pick-and-rolls and moving the ball, they were getting open shots on almost every possession. Even when they weren’t scoring, the Notre Dame guards were forcing the Kentucky big men to rotate over, leaving Auguste wide open under the basket for putbacks.

The game was a textbook example of what a spread offense can do to even the best defenses. At the same time, it also showed the underlying weakness of most spread teams - the big men who can spread the floor on offense with their three-point shooting ability usually don’t have the size to hold up on the other end of the floor. That was certainly the case on Saturday, as Notre Dame had no answer inside for Towns, who scored 25 points on 10-13 shooting and scored almost every time he touched the ball in the second half.

The wrinkle that Brey added to the game was an absolute refusal to double the block, daring the Kentucky big men to beat 1-on-1 defense. What he didn’t want to happen was for Towns to get the Wildcats' shooters into the game. He was going to make the Kentucky big men earn their baskets rather than bail them out by giving them an easy pass to someone spotting up on the three-point line. In essence, Brey was running the numbers, gambling that over the course of the game the expected PPP of Notre Dame screen/rolls would be higher than the PPP of Kentucky post ups.

Brett Koromenos outlined the reasons for why coaches shouldn’t be so quick to double the post in a recent series of articles on RealGM. The basic idea is that it is hard to score in the post against a determined defender who is dug in on the block, regardless of the disparity in size. The reason post play is effective is not because scoring with your back to the basket is the most efficient way to run offense but because all those interior baskets force the defense to collapse, which opens up wide open 3’s.

The logic for staying at home on shooters is sound, but it’s hard to maintain your nerve as a coach when you are watching a guy like Towns dominate so easily around the basket. By the middle of the 2nd half, Towns had measured up Auguste and realized he could score over the top of him almost anytime he wanted. Kentucky abandoned almost all pretense of a half-court offense in order to throw the ball into him in the block. However, while Towns was an offensive machine on one end, Notre Dame was able to match him basket for basket on the other. Auguste finished the game with numbers almost identical to Towns - 20 points and 9 rebounds on 10-13 shooting.

Notre Dame came up short but they put together a pretty convincing case for why an underdog would want to play 4-out basketball against a bigger team. The Irish will have one guy drafted in the first round - Grant - and two more who have a shot to make the league down the road - Jackson and Auguste. If they had pulled off the upset, it would have been one of the biggest in the history of the NCAA Tournament. It would be hard to fault Calipari for job he has done this season, but if the ball bounces the other way a few times on Saturday, plenty of questions would have been coming his way.

The most obvious question is whether a post-up offense would have been the best way to maximize the talents of everyone on the Kentucky roster. For as great as Towns is on the block, he’s even better on the move, where he can maximize his quickness and ball-handling ability. If you let him play in as much space as Auguste has as a small-ball 5, there’s no telling how many points he could have scored on the undersized Notre Dame front-line. Spread the floor with multiple shooters, have Towns diving to the basket and let him pick apart the opposing defense.

Going forward, the biggest question NBA teams will have with Towns is whether to utilize him in post-ups or pick-and-rolls. What makes him such a great prospect is it can work either way. He has the perimeter game to play as a PF with a more traditional C, which would give him a huge edge in size against the vast majority of players he would face at the next level. He can also function as a small-ball C, where he would have a dramatic edge in speed and athleticism against his opponents. Towns is the best of both worlds for a spread coach - the skill to spread the floor on the offense and the size and speed to protect the rim on defense.

A lot will be determined by the composition of the roster of the team that drafts him. If he ends up playing with Joel Embiid in Philly or DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento, he will be the PF part of a Twin Towers configuration. If he winds up playing with Julius Randle in Los Angeles, he will be a small-ball C for a team that should want to spread the floor and push the pace as much as possible.

Over the course of his career, it will ultimately come down to the philosophical bent of his coach and front office. Do they want to control tempo, pound the ball into the paint and try to wear out smaller teams at the front of the rim? Or do they want to speed up the game, spread the floor and try to wear out bigger teams along the three-point line? There’s no right answer - only the reality that a system can only be as good as the players running it.

Post-ups or pick-and-rolls? Karl Towns can either be a specter of the past or a vision of the future.

http://basketball.realgm.com/articl...Specter-Of-The-Past-Or-A-Vision-Of-The-Future

 

[pmatic]

Another 360 profile:

Is Hunter the next Klay Thompson?

To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Georgia State' s R.J. Hunter.

WARP Projection: 2.6 (seventh among players in the top 100)
Comparables: Chris Johnson (94.4), Marcus Thornton (92.1), Damian Lillard (90.7), James Anderson (90.7)
Strengths: Shooting, Steal%, Block%, TO%, PF%
Weaknesses: None

The analytics perspective

The concern about Hunter will surely center on an alleged shooting specialist making just 30.5 percent of his 3-pointers during his final college season. However, there's plenty of reason to believe that mark isn't indicative of Hunter's actual shooting ability.

If you're looking to predict how well a player will shoot 3s in the NBA, it turns out college 3-point percentage isn't the best predictor. In fact, it barely even helps the prediction at all, which instead relies on free throw percentage and the percentage of a player's attempts that come from 3-point range. Hunter scores high on both of those measures; he has made 88 percent of his free throws the past two seasons and took more than half his shots from beyond the arc. Based on those facts, we'd guess he'll develop into a 39 percent career 3-point shooter in the NBA -- second to Florida's Michael Frazier II among players in Chad Ford's top 100.

Even with the poor shooting, Hunter rated as one of the most valuable players in college basketball because of his well-rounded contributions. There is reason to be skeptical of his high steal and block rates, since Hunter played primarily in a zone defense against much smaller wings. Still, his combination of size and shooting ability is rare and valuable.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

Coming off a good run in the NCAA tournament by Georgia State, Hunter is probably picking a good time to leave for the NBA. The junior has had three productive seasons for the Panthers and his heroic last three minutes versus Baylor remain fresh in the minds of many people.

In reality, NBA teams have already scouted Hunter thoroughly and know his strengths and weaknesses well. For me, Hunter's strengths start with his positional size for a shooting guard and his deep, albeit inconsistent shooting range. In addition, he moves well off screens to create shooting opportunities and has good footwork, both with and without the ball.

Hunter's footwork allows him to get in position to catch and shoot quickly. With the ball, he has an excellent rock-step move to free himself from defenders.

One negative that stands out is his 31 percent 3-point shooting this season and pedestrian 35 percent shooting on 2-point jump shots in non-transition situations. It's clear that Hunter has the "green light" in the Panthers' offense and that led to him taking a lot of low-percentage shots all season. In contrast, Hunter made 38 percent of his 453 attempts in his first two college seasons.

The question of competition in the Sun Belt Conference might be an issue, but Hunter has played against a number of high-level teams during his career. In five games versus teams that participated in the NCAA or NIT this season, he averaged 15.7 points on 38 percent shooting -- 30 percent behind the arc -- while attempting 16 shots a game.

Hunter, by NBA standards, has average athletic ability, speed and quickness. It will affect him on the defensive end of the floor initially. And, while his shot selection this season can be questioned, he will be surrounded by better players at the NBA level where he can focus on his one perceived strength: his ability to shoot the basketball.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front office perspective

Is Hunter an elite shooter or just a high-volume shooter? That's the question every GM and scout that I've spoken to is asking. For two seasons, Hunter drew interest from NBA teams as a Klay Thompson-like shooting guard who can handle the ball, play the passing lanes and shoot with unlimited range. He exhibited a high basketball IQ and this summer at the LeBron Camp, many scouts felt he was one of the two or three best NBA prospects there

The problem for Hunter is that he had a horrible 3-point shooting slump as a junior. Hunter took a whopping 262 3s this season, but made just 80 of them -- a 31 percent clip. That's not the mark of the next Klay Thompson.

The question is: Did he suddenly forget how to shoot? (He shot nearly 40 percent from 3-point territory as a sophomore with the same volume of shots.) Or is there something else going on? As you analyze the tape, it's clear that Hunter had to settle for tougher and tougher shots as a junior as defenses keyed in to stop him every night. He won't draw nearly the same defensive attention at the NBA level, which means scouts are hoping that he's closer to 40 percent than 30 percent at the next level. If he is, he's worthy of a late lottery pick. If he isn't, then the late first round seems more appropriate. Right now the scouts and GMs I have spoken with have him going between No. 13 and No. 20, but much of his stock will likely depend on how he shoots the ball in workouts. If he regains his stock there, his going 13-15 sounds about right. If he struggles, he could fall into the late 20s or out of the first round.

-- Chad Ford

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...ure?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_NBADraft360RJHunter

 

[pmatic]

Ford's latest stock report:

Stock Watch: Towns edging Okafor

March Madness is still rolling. Another weekend and another slate of awesome games gave NBA folks more fodder for their scouting notebooks. With a plethora of NBA prospects playing in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight (we had 18 players in our Top 30 make it to the Sweet 16, and 12 to the Elite Eight) there were a lot of epic matchups to take in.

Here's the latest feedback from NBA GMs on a number of top prospects, including a new No. 1 pick in our Top 100 for the first time this year.

Players in our Top 30

The Kentucky Kids

Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Fr.
Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Jr.
Trey Lyles, F, Fr.
Devin Booker, SG, Fr.
Andrew Harrison, G, So.

What a difference one game made for Towns. After a miserable one-point outing in 13 minutes against West Virginia -- that had folks seriously questioning why Towns was being mentioned as a potential No. 1 pick -- the freshman center saved Kentucky's season against Notre Dame, scoring a career-high 25 points on 10-for-13 shooting in 25 minutes (17 points on 8-for-8 shooting in the second half) to go with 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and a block. Towns scored more field goals than the rest of Kentucky's starting five combined. This was Towns' signature game and the one scouts will be referring to when they make their case to GMs that he should go No. 1 ahead of Duke's Jahlil Okafor. That case was made by scouts to me this weekend and for the first time this season. As a result, Towns has ascended to No. 1 on our Top 100. Now every scout in the NBA is praying that UK and Duke meet in the championship game so that Towns and Okafor get to battle it out on the floor to help settle who will be the top pick in the draft.

Cauley-Stein continues to be quiet offensively, but on defense he continues to amaze. He made two crazy great plays at the end of the game against Notre Dame to help the Wildcats seal the victory, including a blocked shot on a Jerian Grant 3-pointer with 38 seconds left and then staying with Grant the length of the floor to make sure his last-second shot to win the game from the corner was contested. There are very few 7-footers in the world who can switch like that and keep pace with Grant, one of the more athletic guards in the country.

Lyles continues to make his push into the late lottery as well. He scored 14 points and grabbed seven boards against West Virginia, and had nine points and five rebounds against Notre Dame. What especially intrigues scouts is Lyles' footwork and skill in the post. He's been playing out of position at small forward all season for the Wildcats, and scouts believe the post will be his home in the pros. Those little glimpses of his play there are what keep him in the discussion for the late lottery.

Booker broke out of his monthlong shooting slump over the weekend, shooting 9-for-14 from the field and 4-for-8 from 3. His stock has been a little dinged the past month and these two solid performances help a bit, but he could use a big Final Four.

The push for Andrew Harrison back in the Top 30 took a little bit of a hit this weekend after two fairly unimpressive performances. He averaged as many turnovers as assists in games against West Virginia and Notre Dame, and shot just 2-for-8 from the field. On the plus side, his two made free throws with six seconds left gave the Wildcats the win on Saturday.

Jahlil Okafor, C, Fr., Duke

Prior to the weekend, Okafor had been No. 1 all season in our Top 100. However, his grip has been slipping for a while and, on Sunday, I moved him to No. 2 after extensive feedback from scouts this weekend. Okafor is still No. 1 on many NBA boards, but I believe he's no longer No. 1 on the majority of them. This weekend he had just six points and eight rebounds against Utah on Friday and clearly struggled with the length of Utah freshman Jakob Poeltl. On Sunday, he struggled a bit with the size and strength of Gonzaga big man Przemek Karnowski, scoring just nine points on 4-for-10 shooting.

The bigger issue, however, is Okafor's continued mediocre defensive play. He doesn't play with the urgency of other elite players on the floor and it's scaring NBA teams a bit. He's clearly the most polished offensive big man to come along in a while. But will he have the motor and toughness to do the job on both ends?

"I think in a head-to-head matchup, Towns could defend Okafor, but I don't think Okafor could defend Towns," said an NBA scout. "As good as Okafor is offensively, head-to-head, I think Towns would come out ahead."

Scouts and GMs are praying that next Monday they'll get to find out for themselves.

Justise Winslow, G/F, Fr., Duke
Stanley Johnson, G/F, Fr., Arizona

Winslow continues to pull ahead of a loaded wing pack that includes Johnson, Kelly Oubre and Mario Hezonja. After they essentially stood neck-and-neck for most of the season, Winslow's strong play in March has put him firmly in the lead among the top wing prospects in the draft. If he nails his workouts, he should be the first wing off the board on draft night.

Winslow continued to show why he's an elite prospect in this year's draft. Next to Sam Dekker, he might be having the best tournament of anyone in our Top 30. I moved him up to No. 6 on our Top 100 last week and it still feels too low. He had a dominant game against Utah, scoring 21 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and shooting 3-for-4 from beyond the arc. On Sunday, he hurt his ankle early in the Gonzaga game and wasn't quite the same, but still managed to score 16 points, grab five rebounds and hit a couple of 3s. He was everywhere at the end of the game and it often feels like Winslow, not Okafor, is the most important player on Duke's roster. Some scouts think he could be another Kawhi Leonard in the NBA. Others see a young Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Either way, he's clearly the No. 1-ranked wing in the Top 100 and I'd be surprised if that changes before the draft.

Johnson was solid but far from great in Arizona's games against Xavier and Wisconsin. He had 12 points, six rebounds and a pair of 3s against Xavier in a win, but was plagued by foul trouble the entire game against Wisconsin and finished with just six points and three turnovers. He also shot just 2-for-6 from 3-point range over the weekend. At this point, scouts who are sold on Johnson won't be dissuaded by a few mediocre games, while the ones who aren't sold have a little more ammunition to add to the arsenal. He's projected to go in the six-to-12 range, but I think it's closer to the latter part of that forecast.

On a side note, a ton of NBA scouts went to Spain this week to see Hezonja's FC Barcelona play Kristaps Porzingis' Sevilla. Hezonja played just six minutes and had zero points. He's essentially fallen from a starter to a bit role player for Barcelona the past month -- not because of his play, but more likely because Barcelona is hoping to hurt his draft stock a little so that he'll return for another season. Meanwhile, Porzingis had 18 points on 8-for-18 shooting.

Kevon Looney, F, Fr., UCLA

Looney had another solid game in the tournament, posting 9 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal and a block in a loss to Gonzaga. He still has lacked assertiveness since suffering the facial fracture in the Pac-12 tournament and, overall, he just isn't the same player we've seen most of the season. Scouts are willing to let most of it pass. It's his length, skill set and toughness they are after. But it wouldn't hurt Looney to return to school for his sophomore season. He could add strength, continue to work on his perimeter game and be a top-five pick in 2016. As it stands, he's probably in the seven-to-12 range.

Frank Kaminsky, C, Sr., Wisconsin
Sam Dekker, F, Jr., Wisconsin
Nigel Hayes, F, So., Wisconsin

The Badgers' big three continue to have a great tournament, and scouts are drooling to see them match up against Kentucky on Saturday.

Kaminsky continues to show his unique versatility for a 7-footer. Not only can he rebound, protect the rim and shoot the 3, but he's very skilled at catching the ball on the high post and creating for himself off the dribble. He had two outstanding games against North Carolina and Arizona, going for 19 points and eight boards against the Tar Heels while posting 29 points and six rebounds against the Wildcats. NBA scouts tend to be leery of seniors, especially ones who aren't explosive athletes, but Kaminsky has won most of them over. He should be a lottery pick and could go as high as No. 9 or 10. Scouts can't wait to see him matched up head-to-head with Towns and/or Cauley-Stein on Saturday.

No one has helped himself in the tournament more than Dekker. After a 20-point game against Coastal Carolina and a 17-point outing against Oregon, he took it to another level against North Carolina and Arizona. Facing two very good defenders in UNC's J.P. Tokoto and Arizona's Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Dekker scored 23 points and grabbed 10 boards against the Tar Heels and added 27 points and five boards against Arizona. He's been doing everything for the Badgers, but what really has scouts excited is his shooting: He's shot 13-for-27 from 3-point range in the tournament. When Dekker is nailing jump shots and playing with the swagger he has this tournament, he looks like a lottery pick. He's been as high as No. 18 on our Big Board and as low as 25, but with his strong play over the past month he's now in the late teens. A big game against Kentucky on Saturday could push him even higher.

Hayes continues to draw interest in the first round, though his play was uneven against both North Carolina and Arizona. He had 12 points and six rebounds versus the Tar Heels, but shot just 3-for-10 from the field and 0-for-4 from 3. He had 9 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists versus Arizona while going 2-for-4 from deep. What's clear is that 3-point shooting is going to be a key to Hayes' draft position. Most scouts believe he's too undersized to be a 4 in the NBA. They want to see that perimeter game. He reminds me a bit of a young Draymond Green.

Jerian Grant, PG, Sr., Notre Dame

Grant played every minute for Notre Dame in this tournament, a whopping 165 minutes in four games. While he didn't have a breakout game and struggled with his shooting stroke (he went 2-for-8 from 3 and just 7-for-24 from the field this weekend), he showed off his hypercompetitiveness, an advanced feel for the pick-and-roll game, hit a couple of big shots and had 17 assists to just three turnovers this weekend, outplaying both Andrew Harrison and Tyler Ulis. Grant's play likely secured the senior a place as a top-20 pick in this year's draft.

Jakob Poeltl, C, Fr. Utah
Delon Wright, PG, Sr., Utah

Poeltl continues to see his draft stock rise following another strong performance, this time against potential No. 1 pick Jahlil Okafor. Poeltl had 10 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks in 27 minutes. Those aren't huge numbers, but his defense on Okafor drew praise from scouts. Okafor finished the game with a career-low six points and much of that was attributed to Poeltl's length. The Utes center strengthened his case dramatically for being taken in the late lottery to mid-first round. He's been ranked in the teens since December on our Big Board, and if he stays in the draft, that's exactly where he's likely to be picked.

Wright again struggled offensively, shooting just 4-for-13 from the field. He did have six assists, just two turnovers and three steals, but he didn't help himself the past couple of weeks and might have even hurt his stock a little. As a senior, scouts expected a steadier presence than what Wright delivered the past three games.

Montrezl Harrell, PF, Jr., Louisville
Terry Rozier, PG, So., Louisville

Harrell was terrific against North Carolina State, scoring 24 points, grabbing seven rebounds and shooting 9-for-12 from the field. When he's filled with energy and passion, he's a handful on both ends of the court. He got off to a great start against Michigan State, going 6-for-7 from the field and leading Louisville to an eight-point first-half lead. But he fell apart in the second half, going 0-for-5 from the field while looking like he was out of gas. It wasn't the way Harrell wanted to end his career or the last impression he wanted to leave for NBA scouts. His stock has taken some minor hits in recent weeks. After looking like a lock to land somewhere in the teens, he's now slipped into the 20s on our Big Board. Of course, that positioning depends on whether every underclassman decides to declare for the draft.

Rozier also had a solid game against North Carolina State, scoring 17 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. His toughness and athleticism are the major appeal and they were on full display in both games. However, against Michigan State, the biggest knock against Rozier reared its ugly head: shot selection. He shot just 6-for-23 from the field and many of the shots he took were ugly ones -- the type that coaches never want their point guards taking. With so many teams concerned that Rozier still hasn't shown command of the point guard position, Sunday's performance didn't help. Like Harrell, he's probably going in the late teens to early 20s if he declares, but his last impression this season wasn't a good one.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, So., Arizona

Hollis-Jefferson had a rough game against Xavier, scoring five points and shooting just 1-for-4 from the field. He was better offensively versus Wisconsin, scoring 17 points and grabbing eight boards, but eventually fouled out and didn't have the same dominating defensive presence he's brought in the past. Hollis-Jefferson's season is now over and it will be interesting to see if he decides to declare for the draft. Scouts love his defense but are very worried about his ability to score in the NBA. Does he return for his junior season and work hard all summer on his jumper, or does he declare now and settle for a pick somewhere in the 17-to-25 range?

Tyus Jones, PG, Fr., Duke

Jones has been solid in the tournament and was especially effective against Gonzaga on Sunday, scoring 15 points, making six assists and committing zero turnovers. His lack of elite size and athleticism limits his ceiling, but few point guards possess his basketball IQ or steadiness.

Domantas Sabonis, PF, Fr., Gonzaga

Sabonis continued to show why scouts think he could be a first-round pick in the draft this year if he declared. Sabonis had 12 points and eight rebounds off the bench in 21 minutes versus UCLA, followed by nine points and four rebounds against Duke. He's big, active, mobile and is one of the best rebounders, per minute, in college basketball. The fact that he could be a draft-and-stash candidate also helps his chances of going somewhere in the 20s if he decides to declare for the 2015 draft.

Other prospects of note

Cameron Payne, PG, So., Murray State

Payne wasn't playing in the Big Dance, but he got several nationally televised games in the NIT and shined for Murray State. Payne had 14 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds against UTEP in the opening round, 20 points and seven assists against Tulsa in just 25 minutes (while shooting 5-for-8 from 3), and 23 points and six assists in a loss to Old Dominion in the NIT quarterfinals.

Payne is a hot name right now among NBA scouts, and for good reason: He sees the floor as well as any point guard in the draft, has a terrific assist-to-turnover ratio, and has become a much improved shooter. He needs to get stronger, but several scouts believe he's the third-best point guard in the draft right now behind Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell. We moved him up to No. 30 last week in our Top 100 update and we've moved him up a few more spots to No. 23 in this week's rank. If he declares, he should be a first-round lock.

Zach Auguste, F/C, Jr. Notre Dame

Auguste had the breakout game of his career against Kentucky on Saturday, scoring 20 points, grabbing nine rebounds and essentially doing just about whatever he wanted in the paint against UK's vaunted frontcourt of Cauley-Stein and Towns. He had a great tournament overall, posting 15 points and six rebounds against Wichita State; seven points and 13 boards against Butler; and 25 points and five rebounds versus Northeastern. He has size, athleticism and can explode near the rim, but his lack of elite rebounding and shot-blocking skills probably means he's more of a second-round pick should he decide to forgo his senior season at Notre Dame.

Justin Jackson, F, Fr., North Carolina

Jackson had another terrific tourney game against Wisconsin on Thursday, scoring 16 points and shooting 3-for-3 from behind the arc. Jackson dramatically improved his 3-point shot in the months of February and March. Pair that with a creative floater and great length for his position, and he's an interesting prospect. He's not a great athlete and needs to get stronger, but he's the best NBA prospect on the Tar Heels and would likely sneak into the first round if he declared for the draft.

Fred VanVleet, PG, Jr., Wichita State

If VanVleet, as Kevin Pelton noted, were two or three inches taller, we'd probably be talking about him as a lottery pick. Few, if any, point guards in the draft have his feel for the game. He was terrific, once again, against Notre Dame, with 25 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and no turnovers. With strong games against Indiana, Kansas and Notre Dame he proved he can play with the elite teams in college basketball. But at 5-foot-11, is he tall enough to excel in the NBA?

Jalen Reynolds, PF, So., Xavier

Reynolds is built like an NBA power forward, has pro-level athleticism and is coming off two big games against Georgia State and Arizona in which he looked the part of a potential NBA player, slamming home dunk after dunk against the competition. But he's already a 22-year-old sophomore and his offensive game is still a major work in progress. Plus, he's very foul prone. He might be tempted to declare after such a great tournament, but he's a late second-round pick at best.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...15-ncaa-tournament-stock-watch-2015-nba-draft

 

[pmatic]

Will Rozier's game translate?

To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Terry Rozier.

WARP Projection: 1.0 (42nd among top 100)
Comps: Ben Gordon (95.4), Jared Cunningham (94.5), Patrick Mills (93.5), Jordan Crawford (92.9)
Strengths: Rebound%, TO%
Weaknesses: 2P%, FTA%, Assist%

The analytics perspective

Rozier's ability to get to the basket is tantalizing, but there are plenty of red flags in his Louisville statistics. While Rozier took more than a quarter of his shots near the basket, per Hoop-Math.com, he made them at an unimpressive 55.0 percent clip. As a result, Rozier made just 44.7 percent of his 2-pointers overall. And he wasn't much better outside the arc, shooting 30.6 percent from 3-point range this season and 33.5 percent in his two-year career. The only thing keeping Rozier's true shooting percentage on the right side of .500 was his five free throw attempts per game, which he made at a healthy 77.2 percent rate.

The question marks about Rozier's ability to score efficiently would be one thing if he were driving and dishing, but that's not really the case. He averaged just 3.4 assists per 40 minutes while splitting ballhandling responsibilities with Chris Jones before Jones' dismissal from the team. That's barely more than Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky (3.2). Rozier may be more effective in the wide-open NBA game, and he has the potential to be a capable on-ball defender with his pressure, but his stock appears too high at this point.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

At 6-foot-2 and armed with a nearly 6-foot-7 wingspan, Rozier is an explosive NBA-level athlete and that gives him a good starting point for his potential NBA career. But, his point guard skill level is low and must be improved on for him to excite his future employers.

First of all, his ability to make shots at the NBA level will be, at least initially, problematic. This season, he made a shade over 50 percent of his shots at the rim in the half court. (By comparison, Arizona's T.J. McConnell made 67 percent of his shots at the rim this season.)

From the perimeter, Rozier made only 40 percent of his 2-point jump shots and a below-average 31 percent from behind the arc. That inability to not keep NBA defenses honest with his outside shooting will shrink the floor for his future teammates.

In Rick Pitino's offensive system, Rozier was involved in screen-and-roll situations a lot. On 26 percent of his possessions for the Cardinals, he created a below-average .74 points per possession. Interestingly, in 43 "late clock" opportunities this season -- plays with the ball in his hands and the shot clock under five seconds -- he had an Effective Field Goal Rate of only 33.7 percent, according to hoop-math.com.

It is on the defensive end where Rozier can use his speed and athleticism to his advantage. While he will be polishing up his offensive skills early in his career, he may be able to contribute immediately on the other end of the court.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front office perspective

Rozier played backup to Russ Smith as a freshman and got just minimal draft buzz despite a strong performance coming off the bench. However, he had a coming out party this summer at the LeBron James and Adidas Nations camps, and scouts immediately expected him to be in play as a potential late lottery to mid-first round pick.

Rozier lived up to expectations -- sort of. He had a much bigger role in the Louisville offense as a sophomore and put up terrific scoring numbers. He's strong, athletic and plays with great intensity on both ends of the floor. When he's good, he certainly looked the part of a lottery pick -- a sort of Kyle Lowry-type player.

However, his weaknesses were also exposed with more playing time. He's prone to poor shot selection, was an inconsistent 3-point shooter, and while he can pass the ball, he struggled at times to get Louisville's offense flowing. His natural instinct is to score and he often did that at the expense of his teammates. Rozier's weaknesses were on full display in Louisville's loss to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. He shot 6-for-23 from the field and many of those shots weren't good ones.

Still, players with his toughness, athleticism, speed and drive don't come along every day. If he improves his decision-making and keeps working on his jump shot, he could be a very good pro -- he has all the physical tools. Look for him to go in the 20 to 35 range.

-- Chad Ford

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...o-future?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_360DraftRozier

 

[bigmike23]

 

Is Kevon Looney a lottery pick?

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Question: Is UCLA's Kevon Looney really a top 10 pick in this year's draft? Is he really ready for the NBA?

Ford: You really have to divorce those two questions from each other. NBA readiness is part of the draft equation, but it isn't the draft equation. Too many people look at box scores or see a player have an unimpressive game and dismiss them as NBA prospects. That especially happens with young players who aren't physically ready to dominate college, let alone the pros.

Scouts have consistently ranked him in the top 10 all season. He's gone as high as No. 5 on our Big Board and currently is No. 7. If he declares for the draft (a big if), I think he'll go somewhere in the 6-to-12 range.

Where do the numbers have him ranked Kevin? Is he worthy of a lottery pick?

Pelton: I have him ranked 22nd in projected WARP, but that sounds worse than it is. There's a logjam in the late teens in early 20s of players with WARP projections right around 2.0 (Looney is at 2.0 on the dot). That typically puts players in the third tier of my projections and suggests a player who's likely to become a quality starter. Because there's so little separation, when Looney's rank on Chad's big board is factored in, Looney ranks ninth in the consensus draft projection I recently introduced.

As for readiness, he does project slightly better than replacement level next season. Given the recent history of one-and-done prospects outside the top five, however, I wouldn't be stunned if he ends up taking something of a redshirt year.

Question: What are Looney's strengths and weaknesses?

Ford: Scouts love Looney despite the fact he's raw in several areas.

He has great size for his position, has a freaky wingspan and is a good athlete for someone his size, so he checks all the boxes when it comes to size and athleticism. Looney also possesses NBA skills. He's very good on the offensive boards thanks to his pterodactyl-like wingspan and can step out and shoot. He led the country in double-doubles for a freshman, nearly averaged a double-double for the season and shot 43 percent from 3 this season.

And despite his slim frame, he's much tougher than he looks. When Kentucky beat down UCLA in Chicago, he was the only UCLA player out there still fighting. He's playing the role of power forward at UCLA, but he has small forward skills, as well. He can handle the ball and see the floor. Scouts got to see that whenever they showed up at UCLA practice. There's more to his game than he shows.

On the downside, his midrange game is a work in progress. He shot just 24 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season. He needs to get stronger and more assertive as an offensive player. He's definitely a work in progress and might need time to develop at the next level. But it's not like he had a terrible freshman season by any means.

Kevin, what do the numbers say about his strengths and weaknesses?

Pelton: Comparing Looney to combo forwards, rebounding is naturally a strength. Surprisingly, that wouldn't be the case if we considered Looney a pure power forward. His double-doubles overstate his rebounding ability a little bit. His steal rate is also good for a frontcourt player, and Looney rarely turned the ball over.

Looney's only statistical weakness relative to combo forwards was his low usage rate. His 2-point percentage also is a bit of a concern. Because of the poor percentage on 2-point jumpers you mentioned, he made just 47.7 percent of his 2-pointers overall. That's poor for an NBA prospect who played primarily on the interior.

Question: Who does Looney compare to as an NBA player?

Ford: I've heard a lot of scouts compare him to a young Lamar Odom. I see that potential as a long, versatile forward who can do lots of different things on the court. Noah Vonleh, who went No. 9 in last year's draft, is another comp -- though Vonleh was more of a traditional power forward.

Pelton: The closest comparisons at the same age in my database are almost entirely perimeter-oriented combo forwards: Thaddeus Young, Maurice Harkless, Marvin Williams and Rudy Gay score better than 95 in terms of similarity. The other interesting name is Kawhi Leonard. Leonard was a year older when he entered the NBA, and has a slightly lower similarity score (93.6) in large part because he'd showed more perimeter skills. Leonard was a better free throw shooter, handed out more assists and created more offense. But their other stats are reasonably similar.

The danger of mentioning Leonard is that he nailed the conversion to small forward faster than anyone could have possibly imagined, developing into a capable 3-point shooter during the lockout before his rookie season. That's an unfair standard for any prospect. But it does speak to Looney's potential.
 

agree with most of this. I don't see how you could compare him to Kawhi leonard or Lamar odom tho

Booker should get another year of schooling in, having said that, he'll go pro.

Booker stock won't get higher by staying, he should go.

he is this years james young

im on board of towns over Okafor

 

[osh kosh bosh]

If you're looking to predict how well a player will shoot 3s in the NBA, it turns out college 3-point percentage isn't the best predictor. which instead relies on free throw percentage and the percentage of a player's attempts that come from 3-point range.

as I tried to explain to you who thought Zach Lavine would be a 40% shooter from 3 in the pros.

 

[durantula]

I don't see how anyone goes towns over okafor. AT ALL

 

[pacificnorsewst]

LaVine got range though.

 

[dacomeup]

I don't see how anyone goes towns over okafor. AT ALL

His ceiling is higher on both ends of the floor.

I think you're doing Booker a disservice by comparing him to Young. We all knew Young wasn't good all year long.

 

[wavycrocket]

His ceiling is higher on both ends of the floor.

I think you're doing Booker a disservice by comparing him to Young. We all knew Young wasn't good all year long.

Defensive ceiling yes. Offensive ceiling no. We get caught up in what Okafor already is, and view him as a finished product..that we don't realize he's 19 and has plenty of room to add to his game. He's showed some great touch out to the foul line extended in, as well as good passing, ball handling and finishing ability. Few Centers can put the ball thru their legs a few times, cross over and get past bigs from the foul line or perimeter. Okafor has shown that. He's also shown that he can dribble out of doubles and push the ball some when needed. His huge hands and handling ability are overlooked.

Towns does have some intruiging offensive potential with his Ft shooting, touch and passing ability...but Okafor has a high ceiling offensively as well, and his defensive woes are overblown.

 

[durantula]

I don't see how anyone goes towns over okafor. AT ALL

His ceiling is higher on both ends of the floor.

I think you're doing Booker a disservice by comparing him to Young. We all knew Young wasn't good all year long.

Man what... Okafors offense is significantly better than towns at this point. No shot of him having a higher ceiling on the offensive side.

 

[nick.]

Okafor can play in the NBA tomorrow and average 15 & 5. 6' 11" 275 lbs, has every post move in the book, can beat you with his size or quickness, excellent footwork...oh, and he's only 19. :x

also, i agree with his defensive issues being exaggerated. it's looked average during the tournament

can't go wrong with Towns or Okafor...hope one of them is a Knick

 

[ValarMorghulis]

Are Weight issues a legitimate concern for Jahlil?