The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

[keel252]

In the Chinese league where guys who can't make/barely can make an NBA roster anymore put up ridiculous numbers (Marbury, McGrady, Jianlin, etc) 18 6 and 6 isn't that impressive. He also had one of the lower fg percentages on his team, so there's that as well. 

That's not to say he won't be a good player in the league, just don't agree with the notion he's bursting with potential, 2nd best prospect and teams will regret not taking him and what not. 

This is the prime example of regular joes so out of touch when it come to sport and how good professionals are.

 

[jpzx]

Rashad Vaughn and Aaron White.

 

[finallyfamous]

Id be lying if I said I didnt want DMC on the Knicks badly.

Melo + Boogie winning a ring together under Phil Jackson... the ultimate "**** you George Karl"   

That team wouldn't even make the ECF

 

[the gr8est]

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasnt Mudiay limited to minutes restrictions as well due to China's only 2 Americans on the court at the same time rule?

Mudiay has serious star potential. I agree wholeheartedly with JRS take and would be thrilled if he is a Knick. Has the game and swagger to run NYC for years to come. He was also my favorite prospect heading into the season and I will not devalue him just because he chose to avoid the corrupt as **** NCAA. If anything, I like him more for that.

But I am also a strong believer in letting Phil build the team the way he wants/needs to. This is the main reason I like Russell more. I see Russell not only being an extraordinary all-around prospect, but also the kind of player who can fit naturally in the triangle while also being one of the best PGs in the league for years to come. But head to head, in a vaccum, I dont have much of a preference in the 2. And if we do draft Mudiay, there is no reason why Phil/Fisher couldnt make it work. Similar to with Melo, if they cant make it work, it's really on them.

You gotta be able to adapt to make it in the league. I am strongly against bringing Phil here just to completely abandon the offensive principles that won him 11 championships, but there are definite ways to make it work around Mudiay, and letting Mudiay get out on the fast break (with Melo at the 4).

As Phil even says himself, "The triangle is what happens when all else fails." Or some **** like that. 

 

 

[carver]

 

 

[worldbeefreeg]

McD's game is not evidence of anything

And actually, letting Michael iso and Kobe/Shaq run Pick n Roll is what happens when all else fails.

 

[carver]

it's da explosion b.. not the competition

 

[pmatic]

Is Kristaps Porzingis more Dirk Nowitzki or Darko Milicic?

As he tries to solidify his position in Thursday's NBA draft, Latvian forward Kristaps Porzingis isn't just battling the other prospects expected to go in the top five. He's also battling the ghosts of past European draft picks whose legacies can be used to cast Porzingis' future in either a positive or negative light, depending on your point of view.

To Porzingis believers, like Insider draft analyst Chad Ford, his game is similar to European stars Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki. To doubters, Porzingis is in the line of the failed lottery picks who followed Gasol and Nowitzki stateside, like overhyped Darko Milicic and recent washout Jan Vesely.

Which path will Porzingis take? A deeper look at the history of international prospects can't provide the answer, but can offer some necessary context.

A Brief History of International Prospects

A quick analysis of drafts from 1995 to 2011 -- ruling out classes that have not yet played four years in the league -- shows that international picks have actually performed slightly better than NCAA prospects. Accounting for where they were drafted and the overall quality of that year's draft pool, players drafted from overseas have performed 0.13 wins above replacement player (WARP) per season worse than expected, by my metric. College players have been 0.18 WARP worse than expected per season. Both of these numbers are negative because the other group, players drafted directly out of high school, dramatically outperformed expectations by 1.2 WARP per season.

Looking at the past two decades as a whole, however, hides a lot of variation. Let's say we were considering international prospects before the 2003 draft; 22 players were drafted from abroad to come immediately to the league from 1995-2003 -- about when the league shifted from drafting veteran international stars to younger prospects. Again, based on where they were drafted and the draft pool, we'd have expected those players to produce about 33 WARP per season. Instead, they totaled 60 per season, nearly doubling expectations. In addition to Gasol and Nowitzki, international players like Tony Parker (taken 28th in 2001) and Zydrunas Ilgauskas (20th in 1996) have proved to be great values.

The NBA took notice. In fact, it appears in hindsight that the league over-corrected. Check out the number of international players who did not play NCAA basketball drafted each year over the last two decades.

In 2003, nearly a third of the players drafted were international prospects -- 19 in all, still a record total. That included seven first-round picks, 10 of the first 35 selections, and the No. 2 overall pick, Milicic. Of them, 10 arrived in the league immediately. Based on where they were selected in an otherwise strong draft that included future stars LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade, those international players could have been expected to provide 22 WARP per season. Instead, they totaled just seven per season, with Milicic disappointing, while players like Zarko Cabarkapa and Zoran Planinic were out of the league before their rookie contracts were complete.

Since then, the track record for players drafted from abroad has been mixed, though overall somewhat negative. Again, not counting stash prospects, who may never come to the league, the 37 international players drafted from 2004 to 2011 averaged 0.6 fewer WARP per season than expected. Of the lottery picks in this group, only American Brandon Jennings (who played in Italy rather than attend college) outperformed expectations, with Vesely, 2006 No. 1 pick Andrea Bargnani and Yi Jianlian all falling far short.

On the plus side, teams have performed better outside the lottery, landing Nicolas Batum and Goran Dragic in the late first round and second, respectively. And more recently, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert look like the two best players so far from the 2013 draft.

Were International Busts Predictable?

Here's the good news for Porzingis. At least by my projections, he looks like a better prospect than the international players who failed before him. I've projected most draft picks since 2006 who played in Europe. Here's how the youngest players in this group compare in terms of projected rookie winning percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) based on translated European stats and age as of the draft.

Generally speaking, NBA potential is a function of age (younger being better) and current ability level. So the ideal draft pick would be in the upper left of this chart. Ricky Rubio of the Minnesota Timberwolves, the youngest of these prospects when drafted and also among the most effective, had the best WARP projection of the group.

Vesely and Bismack Biyombo, drafted a pick later in 2011, projected as two of the weaker players in this group at the time they came to the NBA. While that was hardly a guarantee of failure -- particularly for Biyombo, based on his listed age -- it makes them very different prospects than Porzingis, who has been effective in a high-level European league before age 20.

The group of players who have been as good as Porzingis at a similar age is small: Bargnani, Rubio, Danilo Gallinari, Nikola Mirotic, Lucas Nogueira and 2014 draft picks Clint Capela, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. While Bargnani didn't live up to expectations, he has been a starter throughout his career. Same for Gallinari and Rubio, and Mirotic was one of the league's top reserves as a rookie. The others haven't played enough to determine their future either way, though Capela and Nurkic are off to good starts.

The American Porzingis

Once upon a time, UCLA forward Jason Kapono joked during the draft process that he'd have been a first-round pick if he had headed to Europe and changed his name to "Vladimir Kaponovich." Naturally, Kapono said that in 2003, at the height of the NBA's international mania. Now, the effect might run the opposite direction, at least for top picks. So let's pretend that instead of signing with Sevilla last summer, Porzingis had shortened his name to Kris and turned up at Duke as an incoming freshman. Based on the translations of ACB and NCAA stats to their NBA equivalents, I estimate Porzingis would have averaged 16.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in Jahlil Okafor's 30 minutes per game -- similar to Okafor's actual averages of 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and an identical 1.9 blocks per game.

If Porzingis had starred on national TV throughout the NCAA tournament, it's hard to imagine he'd be facing the same kind of scrutiny leading up to the draft. Porzingis can score on his opponents, but the ghosts of past European prospects are harder to beat.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...ries-darko-milicic-other-european-stereotypes

 

[jpzx]

Kurt Helin @basketballtalk 1m
Report: Warriors wiling to trade No. 30 pick, but no more, to dump David Lee dlvr.it/BJQZkj

Kevin Pelton @kpelton 3m
Considering Kristaps Porzingis in the context of past international prospects: es.pn/1J2xLXs (In)

Steve Bulpitt @SteveBHoop 2m
Ainge says he thinks there'll be a lot of movement on draft day: "Stay tuned." Says he's trying to move up w/both 1st round picks.

David Locke @Lockedonsports 1m
DRAFT FACT - From 1997 to 2012 - Picks 11-30
0% All-Pro
3% all-star
21% starter
25% rotation player
51% non impact player

Kevin Pelton @kpelton 1m
Joined @NateDuncanNBA's pod to preview the draft and discuss my projections in detail: bit.ly/1JgKNDA

 

[nick.]

that Too Many Cooks video had me dying for no reason

 

[jpzx]

Breaking

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

View media item 1595668

 

[nick.]

@Deftronic: On everything I love, I literally just seen Jahlil Okafor throw up into a steel Grate on the sidewalk in Manhattan

 

[pmatic]

Sporting News Mock Draft: http://www.sportingnews.com/nba-draft/2015/mock-draft

Chris Mannix's SI Mock Draft: http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nb...-kristaps-porzingis-rj-hunter-emmanuel-mudiay

 

[pmatic]

Draft Buzz: Possible landing spots for Sacramento's DeMarcus Cousins

To see what could be ahead for the Sacramento Kings, we must look at how this franchise got to this level of dysfunction.

To review (and be patient, there is a lot to review when assessing the Kings):

In December 2013, the Kings acquired Rudy Gay from Toronto in an effort to complement DeMarcus Cousins with a capable wing scorer. A year later, with the Kings off to an encouraging 11-13 start while Cousins was bedridden with viral meningitis, they fired coach Michael Malone and replaced him with assistant Tyrone Corbin. The reason? Owner Vivek Ranadive wanted to play faster, despite the fact that the team's best player, Cousins, was a plodding, low-post scorer.

The GM who begrudgingly executed the move, Pete D'Alessandro, subsequently hired George Karl, with whom he worked in Denver. After a season in which Cousins made his first All-Star team, he told the Washington Post of the Kings' turmoil: "It's been a circus, man. It's been a complete circus."

Two months ago, D'Alessandro was stripped of his decision-making power and replaced by Vlade Divac, who is now calling the shots. Earlier this month, D'Alessandro returned to Denver in a front-office role. Oh, and Malone is now the Nuggets' head coach.

Now, two days before a draft in which the Kings hold the sixth pick, they are floating trade proposals as though the world is ending. "They have everyone on the table," a rival executive told CBSSports.com Tuesday. "Everyone."

Everyone includes Gay, the player the previous regime acquired to placate Cousins, and if Karl gets his wish, Cousins, himself. To which Cousins deftly responded on Twitter with a hot-fire emoji depicting a snake between blades of grass.

Ranadive and Divac continue to insist that Cousins is not available, which runs counter to Karl's comment in April that he's "never had one player that I have said was untradeable." And while rival executives are dubious that anything of substance has changed on the Karl-Cousins front -- beyond a well-placed leak that led to this pre-draft maelstrom -- it's never too early to consider the potential landing spots for the combustible but talented 24-year-old.

Cousins' agent, Dan Fegan, would like to steer his client to the Lakers, who can offer Julius Randle and this year's No. 2 pick -- though rival teams doubt the Kings would send Cousins to a division rival. The Knicks are another team on Cousins' list, but all the Knicks have to offer is the fourth pick (which, bear in mind, can't officially be dealt until the Knicks use it, since their 2016 first-rounder already has been traded).

The team that can offer the most in terms of future assets for Cousins is the Boston Celtics, who've long had their eye on the Sacramento situation for that very reason. The Celtics have the 16th and 28th picks in Thursday night's draft, plus a slew of future firsts -- as many as six in the next two drafts and eight in the next three, depending on how the protections play out.

Here is the confusing part: Karl has signaled no interest in a full-on youth movement. He is chasing Don Nelson on the career wins list and wants to win now with veteran players. So why not keep your best players, add Emmanuel Mudiay or Willie Cauley-Stein to the mix with the sixth pick, and move on? One thing is certain: After missing on the eighth overall pick last year (Nik Stauskas, who is already on the trading block), the Kings need to get this offseason right for once.

For now, emojis are popping up all over, the circus music is playing and the Kings are the undisputed rulers of dysfunction.

Shakeup at the top? League sources say the Sixers want D'Angelo Russell and are willing to trade up from the No. 3 spot to get him. It would create an interesting opportunity for the Lakers, who could still get Jahlil Okafor and extract a future pick in the process. Among others, the Sixers control the Lakers' 2016 first-round pick, which is top-3 protected.

Porzingis Project? While the Knicks may be hesitant to go with Latvian 7-footer Kristaps Porzingis with the fourth pick, given their infamous selection of Frederic Weis in 1999, a rival executive who has scouted him extensively disputed the notion that he's a long-term project. "He's the real deal," the executive said. "He's ready to go right now."

Point guard for Pistons? If Emmanuel Mudiay falls to the Pistons at No. 8, they might be inclined to take him and let Reggie Jackson walk as a free agent. "They're not 100 percent sold on Reggie," a league source said. Detroit also likes Justise Winslow and Mario Hezonja at that spot, sources said, though Hezonja isn't expected to get past the Magic at No. 5.

Wisconsin wild card. Wisconsin's Sam Dekker is the wild card in the late lottery, with league sources pegging him anywhere from 10th (Miami) to 17th (Milwaukee). If the 6-9 forward is on the board when the Bucks pick, there will be tremendous pressure to take the local star from Madison -- especially with the Bucks trying to build community and political excitement for a new downtown arena. Milwaukee native Kevon Looney of UCLA also could fit the bill.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/writer...z-possible-landing-spots-for-demarcus-cousins

 

[ValarMorghulis]

Soon

 

[bishopstrongbow]

I want RJ Hunter for the Bulls.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

It wouldn't shock me to see Hunter go late lottery

 

[jpzx]

Take it for what it's worth:

Sheridan:

If the Lakers do not deal the second pick, it sounds like they prefer Ohio State guard D’Angelo Russell to Duke center Jahlil Okafor. However, if the Lakers deal the pick, it is likely it will be to a team wanting to jump the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks and snag Okafor.

There is a growing feeling that the top three picks in some order will be Karl-Anthony Towns, Russell and Okafor, meaning the Knicks will be frozen out from the players they covet most. Several sources have indicated the Knicks would like to draft Russell or Okafor, but if both are gone, then Phil Jackson will look to make a deal. Should the Knicks trade down, potential targets are Trey Lyles, Justise Winslow and Sam Dekker.

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

So this Karl/DMC thing, one has to go, right?


No way these 2 get along day 1 of TC.

 

[carver]

Lakers know how badly Philly wants Russell. They just trying to squeeze out a little extra and still get their guy at 3.

Karl needs to go asap.

 

[hypebeast5]

it's da explosion b.. not the competition

Word b, from Physical standpoints, Muddiay = Wall, while Russell = MCW in my eyes

 

[ballinsam23]

Cant wait for BOS and their 1000 "assets" project to fail miserably.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

**** making a deal take Mudiay damn it.

 

[essential1]

Posted by pmatic in the Lakers thread

League sources say the Sixers want D'Angelo Russell and are willing to trade up from the No. 3 spot to get him. It would create an interesting opportunity for the Lakers, who could still get Jahlil Okafor and extract a future pick in the process. Among others, the Sixers control the Lakers' 2016 first-round pick, which is top-3 protected.

If Hinkie did this, time to pull the plug Sixers..

 

[Arthur Shelby]

D'Angelo Russell


Kid has dismissed the Rich Man Jeremy Lamb comp he use to get