The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

[pacificnorsewst]

wrong thread

 

[keel252]

no way Booker gets past the Hornets.

 

[pmatic]

Towns making case for No. 1

Duke's Jahlil Okafor has been penciled in as the projected top pick in this summer's NBA Draft for some time.

And the freshman phenom hasn't done much to dissuade that notion this season, averaging 17.9 points and 9.4 rebounds per game while shooting 66.1 percent from the field for the 24-3 Blue Devils this season as a major national player of the year candidate.

But the play of fellow freshman, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns, especially of late, has suggested that the gap between Okafor and everyone else may not be as big as originally thought.

Both ESPN and Draft Express project Okafor and Towns to go 1-2 overall but as Draft Express' Jonathan Givony told CatsPause.com, it's not definitive.

"If I were an NBA team and I got No. 1 and needed a big guy, it's not cut and dry at this point," Givony said.

"There is going to be a case made for either guy. It just depends on what you already have and what style of play you're looking to implement. I think over the next 4-6 weeks depending on how they finish out, how far they go, there's definitely a discussion. I'd be happy to have either one, honestly."

The main argument for Okafor over Towns as the No. 1 pick has centered around the idea that Okafor is more-ready made for NBA success while Towns is more of a 3-5 year investment.

"It's not just based on what they are," Givony said, "but also what they will be down the road."

But it's also Towns' versatility defensively as one of the anchors of the nation's best defense that is also putting him in the conversation.

"There's something to be said for what Towns brings to the table. He's the much better defender, much more of a rim protector and more mobile stepping out on the pick and roll. Okafor struggles with that. He plays below the rim and that's not ideal."

Kentucky coach John Calipari has stated on numerous occasions this season that by the end of the year, he wants Towns playing and looking like the best big man in the country.

Over the past several weeks, Towns is starting to resemble that remark.

In his last six games, Towns is averaging 12.8 points 8.7 rebounds, 2.5 blocks and 1.7 assists in just 23.7 minutes while shooting 63.8 percent from the floor and 94.4 percent from the free throw line.

But the numbers alone don't tell the full story between Okafor and Towns. Okafor averages over 10 more minutes per game than Towns and is the No. 1 offensive option for the Blue Devils while Towns is one of seven Wildcats that average between 11.0 and 7.5 points per game.

A side-by-side look at Towns' numbers extrapolated out to Okafor's 30.9 minutes per game:

Okafor: 17.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.5 blocks, 2.7 TOs, 66.1 FG%, 54.8 FT%
Towns: 14.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 3.6 blocks, 2.0 TOs, 54.5 FG%, 78.8 FT%

247Sports Director of Basketball Scouting Jerry Meyer says Towns projects to be a better NBA prospect and is "perfectly suited for the NBA game" on both ends of the floor.

"The NBA wants big men who defensively can protect the rim and defend the pick and roll/pop. Offensively the NBA wants big men who can draw the opposing big man out of a rim-protecting position," Meyer said. "Towns is the perfect candidate to do both."

On the flip side, Meyer has concerns over how well Okafor's game translates to the NBA level.

"Okafor is a tremendous college player but the questions are his defensive ability and his shooting range," Meyer said. "He is a poor free throw shooter and typically that isn’t a good sign for future development of a jumpshot. He also is more of a Kevin Love type defender than a rim protector. His passing ability is well documented, but I wouldn’t say it is better than Towns’."

Meanwhile, Towns' offensive skill set more closely resembles what NBA scouts and general managers are looking for in the post-modern game.

"He has impressive length by NBA standards, can score over NBA length in the post and can stretch the floor with his shooting ability," Meyer said. "He is an "outside his area" rebounder and on top of all this, he is a proficient ball handler and tremendous passer."

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Artic...e-conversation-for-No-1-overall-pick-35814347

 

[dacomeup]

I'd hate for my #1 overall pick to be described as a Kevin Love type defender.

 

[nick.]

can't go wrong with either imo

 

[pmatic]

View media item 1416987View media item 1416988View media item 1416994

 

[nick.]

that left wing :x

 

[pmatic]

 

[pmatic]

Ford's Stock Report 2/24:

Stock Watch: Towns on the rise

We are down to the final weeks of conference play, and it's been interesting to see which prospects started the season hot but then faded, and which prospects started slow but are peaking at the right time.

Although scouts tend to take a holistic view of the season -- everything matters -- it is true that they are looking for progress as the season goes on, and players peaking now (especially in March) leave stronger impressions heading into the draft.

After speaking with a number of GMs and scouts, here's a look at several players who are peaking as the season winds down:

Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Fr., Kentucky

Slowly but surely, Towns continues to make a serious case for the No. 1 pick. Kentucky's platoon system and a number of blowouts have limited his minutes and artificially lowered his stats. Still, he has put up some huge games lately: 19 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks against Florida; 12 points, 13 rebounds and 2 blocks against LSU; and 19 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in 21 minutes against Auburn. In his past six games, Towns is averaging 13 points, 9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 24 minutes per game, while shooting 64 percent from the field. He has also made 17 of 18 free throws -- a key stat for a big man.

From an analytics standpoint, Towns has caught Jahlil Okafor and even surpassed him in some systems, including Kevin Pelton's. Towns is a little bigger than Okafor, more athletic, a better defender and a better shot-blocker, but can Towns make the case that he's the better long-term prospect? I've spoken to some general managers over the past week who are starting to think he might be. In short, with the rise of Towns and D'Angelo Russell, Okafor's grip on the No. 1 pick isn't nearly as tight as it was a month ago.

Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Jr., Kentucky

Cauley-Stein's season numbers (9.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) certainly don't scream top-10 pick -- especially for a junior. Kevin Pelton's Statistical Big Board doesn't have him in the top 30. But scouts are seeing something very different. Cauley-Stein's unique combination of athleticism and size makes him a potential dominant defensive force who can defend multiple positions on the floor. We already knew he was an amazing finisher in transition and off lobs. Until recently, the rest of his offensive repertoire was a major work in progress, but Cauley-Stein has been surprising scouts lately by showing off a midrange jump shot in limited quantities. This season, 37 percent of the shots Cauley-Stein takes are 2-point jumpers, and he's shooting a respectable 35 percent this season. That number has been going up all season. If Cauley-Stein can figure out any semblance of a 10-foot jumper, he has the chance to be great.

Christian Wood, PF, So., UNLV

UNLV's season has been a mess, but Wood has quietly put together a terrific sophomore year. He's had some especially impressive performances lately. In the past two weeks, he had 27 points, 19 rebounds and 7 blocks against Fresno State, and 31 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks against Air Force. Five of Wood's past seven performances have been double-doubles, and he's been averaging 4 blocks in his past six games. Although his shot selection leaves a lot to be desired and he needs to add strength, Wood's combination of size, athleticism, rebounding and shot-blocking is getting him serious consideration as a mid-to-late first-round pick.

Jarell Martin, PF, So., LSU

Martin was considered one of the top 10 players in the high school class of 2013 but quickly faded in the draft discussion after a less-than-dominant freshman year (thanks in large part to some early-season injuries). His strong play of late, however, has scouts talking again. Martin had 21 points and 11 rebounds against a Kentucky front line that sports four potential first-round picks. He followed it up 10 days later (on Saturday) with a 28-point, 13-rebound performance against Florida. Martin hasn't proved to be the shooter he was pegged to be out of high school (30 percent on 3s and 34 percent on 2-point jumpers). But he's been a strong finisher at the rim and a solid rebounder.

Isaac Copeland, F, Fr., Georgetown

Copeland had had a pretty quiet freshman season -- until he was inserted into the starting lineup three games ago. Since then, he's been terrific: 20 points, eight rebounds and 3-for-4 from beyond the arc versus Seton Hall; 12 and 9 with two assists and three blocks against St. John's; and 12 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists Saturday versus DePaul. Copeland was one of the best high school players in the country last season, and some scouts think he'll follow in the footsteps of Otto Porter and become a lottery pick down the road. Copeland is long and athletic, and he can play both forward positions, shoot the 3, handle the ball and block shots. He's one of the more versatile prospects in the draft. Although it's unlikely he'll declare this year (he needs to add strength and consistency), if he finishes with a flurry, he'll be tempted. He has first-round talent.

Gary Payton II, PG, Jr. Oregon State

His father's nickname in the NBA was "The Glove," and the son is showing the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Kevin Pelton has been high on Payton all season, and scouts are slowly starting to come around. Payton is averaging 3 steals per game and an impressive 1.3 blocks per game. In the past couple of weeks, he had seven blocks and four steals (Saturday against Colorado), six steals against USC, and five steals against Washington. He also dropped 24 points against Colorado, 24 against UCLA and 17 against Washington. Payton's lack of assists has raised some issues among scouts who question whether he's a "true" point guard, but he has slowly won over many scouts who are now conceding that he's an intriguing, potential first-rounder if he declares.

Cameron Payne, PG, So., Murray State

Murray State is in the midst of a 22-game win streak, and Payne is the engine behind the Racers' success. He is drawing praise from scouts as one of the most intelligent point guards in the draft. Payne isn't the strongest or most athletic point guard in the draft, but he is quick, is shooting the ball much better as a sophomore, and has a very advanced feel for the game. He probably isn't a first-round pick right now, but some teams are taking a very close look. As Kevin Pelton pointed out two weeks ago, Payne is a favorite of the analytics crowd.

Ford's Big Board 2/24:
View media item 1418412View media item 1418420View media item 1418422

 

[al3xis]

Leave Isaac alone. He's not good.

 

[pmatic]

Don't kill the messenger.

 

[Vincent Van Goat]

This page kills my browser for some reason 

Towns making a case for #1 isn't surprising, he seems like he has all the tools AND is a defensive minded player. His feel for the game is what intrigues me most, very organic feel to him if that makes sense. Much like I see in Okafor

 

[frshstunna]

I wouldn't take towns over okafor but one thing I do like is how towns has been getting better as the season goes along, which is a good sign

 

[champcruthik]

I wouldn't take towns over okafor but one thing I do like is how towns has been getting better as the season goes along

Towns has a considerable edge defensively, potential rim protector. More athletic with a higher ceiling, he's my choice first overall.

 

[User 15002]

I'll preface this with I'm a UK homer.

With that out of the way, look at the frame of both Towns and Okafor. One needs to tone up some, the other has quite a bit of room to fill out. Projecting forward a few years where is the ceiling for each of them?

Factors to consider:

• Physical maturity
• Basketball IQ
• Athleticism
• Skill
• Body type
• Effort

Who has the edge in each of these now and who project to have the higher ceiling in each of these going into the near future?

 

[wavycrocket]

Funny thing about Towns is this is the best shape he's been in. Dude had a terrible physique in HS, and if you read most of the scouting reports a year or so ago, that was one of the concerns. Okafar is in good shape too this year. He can def tone up too. But that will co

I also don't think Towns higher ceiling than Okafor. They're the same age and I think pretty similar athletically. Towns is just more raw than Okafor so it looks like he has a higher ceiling.

We all want skilled players, but when they are skilled..we view them as having low ceilings to their potential. Like last year what people were sayig about Bari. Towns has some stretch big potential though, and showed a solid handle and good vision in HS. Okafor on the other hand is sooooo advanced with his post skill set, and could add a lot to his game.

 

[champcruthik]

They're the same age and I think pretty similar athletically.

I strongly disagree that Jah is on the same plane as Towns athletically.

 

[pmatic]

A noteworthy discussion:

Jahlil Okafor: Centerpiece or Flawed Star?

At this point in the college basketball season, everyone has had a glimpse of Jahlil Okafor. I thought enough of him to declare in mid-December that he had no peers to challenge him. Watching him tear teams to shreds from the post has continued to be a joy as he’s progressed into conference play.

And yet, I have worries when I watch him play that I can’t seem to shake.

There’s no doubting Okafor’s post brilliance, his arsenal of moves and counter-moves combined with immaculate footwork. He shows touch and finesse usually equated with smaller players, hitting bank shots and crafty layups with ease. And his passing is perhaps his most jarring skill; his hawk-like floor vision allows him to turn double teams against his opponent by consistently finding the open man and resetting his position.

Defensively is another ballgame. Whether you’re beholden to stats or “the eye test”, things aren’t pretty for Okafor on the other end.

@VJL_bball
Okafor's top NCAA stat-comps O/D separately:
Off: S. O’Neal 92, G. Oden 07, Z. Randolph 01
Def: M. Doleac 96, M. Doleac 97, S. Pollard 95

The numbers reflect what becomes obvious when you watch Okafor. He’s dominant, near transcendent at putting points on the board, and a sieve of equal proportion at his own hoop. It’s jarring to see the feet producing dance moves in the post melt into an abomination defending the pick-and-roll.

This would be more acceptable if Okafor was a plus-value rim protector, but that isn’t always the case, whether due to awareness, effort level or base skills. Some important tools are there — his wingspan has measured in between 7-foot-5 and 7-foot-6 at various events — and he’s feasted on a variety of mid-majors and small-ish ACC teams this season. That opportunity won’t present itself in the NBA, and battles with grown men will demand full extraction of his toolbox.

Draft Express did an excellent video breakdown that highlights the things I’m talking about:






Okafor’s defensive question marks beg this question: What can we count on him to be at the next level?

Player comparisons at this stage are nearly impossible given the stat profiles highlighted by Vashro above. What does a player with Shaq’s offensive output and Pollard’s defensive stoutness top out as? Can he be the guy to anchor a franchise for 10-plus years?

The answer is yes and no. Okafor’s skillset and production suggest that he’ll be a difference maker on one end of the court. Knowing that, many teams will be happy to ignore specific concerns with the hope they can put pieces around him to supplement strengths and hide weaknesses.

That philosophy comes with the caveat that Okafor’s flaws are some of the hardest to overcome in the league’s current setup. The pick-and-roll boom has put a premium on ball-handlers who can attack and distribute out of P&R sets, and big men who can either protect the rim or stop those guards from turning the corner. Against lesser competition, Okafor has struggled at the latter and been inconsistently focused at the former.

It’s not necessarily easy to hide those faults, and most of the league’s best teams this season — the Hawks, Warriors and Grizzlies to name a few — have a big man who anchors their defense first and foremost. Heck, you could go through the West’s top nine teams and point to a rim-protecting/shot-blocking type. Dwight Howard, Tyson Chandler, and on and on until you reach Anthony Davis’ ninth-place Pelicans.

Having parted with Chandler, the Knicks morphed from casual punchline to tragicomedy. The Kings have struggled to build around DeMarcus Cousins despite eye-popping box score numbers, due in part to Cousins’ intermittent focus on that end. Nikola Vucevic has far exceeded expectations in Orlando, yet the Magic have floundered in a season expected to produce a big jump.

I believe it’s possible to build a team around a one-dimensional big — and the “bad” teams mentioned have problems far beyond their bigs — but it ups the degree of difficulty. The Hornets were one of the league’s nice stories last season after Big Al Jefferson’s arrival spurned them to a playoff berth. They accounted for Jefferson’s lacking foot speed by slowing the game down and prioritizing ball safety, registering the league’s lowest turnover percentage. The issue with slower, low-risk basketball is the margin for error, and a three-point drop in offensive rating has Charlotte 10 games under .500 despite improving in several other areas.

Okafor’s passing ability combined with post prowess gives him the leg up on other offensive-focused bigs coming out of college. There will always be value in the ability to create offense from the post, whether it’s finding the open shooter out of double teams or bullying single coverage. Consider things like the Stats LLC developed “gravity score” — which measures how players draw coverage off the ball — and ponder the inverse for a moment. Okafor may be a black hole in the rosiest interpretation of the word, sucking so much attention from his supporting cast that it turns into a shooting gallery. If anyone is going to win with the four-out offense Orlando rode to the Finals in 2009, an Okafor-led squad might be it.

Unfortunately, Orlando Dwight isn’t there to cover for things on the other end. We haven’t yet come close to seeing Okafor’s ceiling, but given the way the NBA has headed, it’s fair to wonder whether it will be enough.

Discuss.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Funny thing about Towns is this is the best shape he's been in. Dude had a terrible physique in HS, and if you read most of the scouting reports a year or so ago, that was one of the concerns. Okafar is in good shape too this year. He can def tone up too. But that will co

I also don't think Towns higher ceiling than Okafor. They're the same age and I think pretty similar athletically. Towns is just more raw than Okafor so it looks like he has a higher ceiling.

We all want skilled players, but when they are skilled..we view them as having low ceilings to their potential. Like last year what people were sayig about Bari. Towns has some stretch big potential though, and showed a solid handle and good vision in HS. Okafor on the other hand is sooooo advanced with his post skill set, and could add a lot to his game.

I have no idea what you have been watching but it's certainly not Towns-Okafor game tape.

1. Towns and Okafor aren't in the same timezone athletically. Okafor is a below the rim guy and Karl Towns got his arm top of the square. Jahlil is plodding in a way that towns isn't.

2. Average athletes tend to have lower ceilings than above average to elite ones. Just the way this works. Okafor isn MAYBe average for a C and probabaly a couple notches below.

Dangelo Russel isn't some freak athlete you don't see anyone saying he has a low ceiling becuase he's still above avearge. It's easier to teach some one to shoot/dribble than it is to make the jump high/run faster.

3. No. Karl Town had a fine physique in high school, it's Okafor who was pretty fat physically. Towns was kid a who grew fast so he was still sort adjusting to his body but it got better as he got older as expected.

Okafor ceiling is lower, I don't really know how anyone can delude themselves into thinking otherwise.

 

[wavycrocket]

I have no idea what you have been watching but it's certainly not Towns-Okafor game tape.

1. Towns and Okafor aren't in the same timezone athletically. Okafor is a below the rim guy and Karl Towns got his arm top of the square. Jahlil is plodding in a way that towns isn't.

2. Average athletes tend to have lower ceilings than above average to elite ones. Just the way this works. Okafor isn MAYBe average for a C and probabaly a couple notches below.

Dangelo Russel isn't some freak athlete you don't see anyone saying he has a low ceiling becuase he's still above avearge. It's easier to teach some one to shoot/dribble than it is to make the jump high/run faster.

3. No. Karl Town had a fine physique in high school, it's Okafor who was pretty fat physically. Towns was kid a who grew fast so he was still sort adjusting to his body but it got better as he got older as expected.

Okafor ceiling is lower, I don't really know how anyone can delude themselves into thinking otherwise.

Not even. Watch some Towns tape in HS. Dude was definitley out of shape and EVERY scouting service questioned his explosiveness. He's long and has good defensice instincts. From draftexpress:  

"He's not terribly explosive at this stage of his physical development, and probably won't ever be considered a freakish athlete, so he'll have to keep adding strength and experience to play the center position his size and average lateral quickness likely makes him best suited for long-term, at least on this end of the floor."

From DraftExpress.comhttp://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz3SpBQhGSE
http://www.draftexpress.com. 

Towns is an above average athlete, and okafor is an average one. For their respective positions.

 

[User 15002]

Not every adolescent can be judged the same. Some of us were totally different from 16 to 18. I grew 10" the summer going into my senior year. Towns is a huge human being, but he is just now becoming an adult physically.

Look at the photos. Okafor was shaving two years ago and Towns has a baby face...lol.

 

[Vincent Van Goat]

There's no way Towns has a lower ceiling that Okafor but at the same time ceilings are somewhat overrated. Projecting who will most likely have a better pro career, I would say it's pretty close right now

If Okafor played any semblance of defense it'd be no contest, but that's not the case

I wish we could have seen Towns on any other team so we could see him in a different role

 

[JD617]

Regarding Okafor:

@AcrossTheCourt: The comparisons to Al Jefferson make me hesitant. And his DRB% is like Bosh in college and BLK% like Love's. Hm.

 

[Vincent Van Goat]

I get why Al Jefferson comes to mind with Okafor, but was/is Al Jefferson the passer Okafor is? I feel like Okafor's timing with his passes, and his court awareness is generally higher or will be higher than Big Al

 

[JD617]

True. He's a much better passer. Big Al was/is a black hole.