The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

Depends on where Booker lands, 6-5 and great shooting always has a chance if he can defend.
 
I have faith in Archie eventually becoming something, but yeah, nothing beats leaving early to rot on a bench.
 
Majority of the players in any draft aren't gon be stars n best case is they become solid role players/contributors ...might as well get drafted in the 1st round when you can
 
Pelton tackled the issue today:
Raising draft age limit would hurt NBA

On Monday night in Indianapolis, Duke's Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow will try to win a national championship in what almost certainly will be their final NCAA game before becoming lottery picks in the 2015 NBA draft.

If commissioner Adam Silver had his way, however, both Okafor and Winslow would return to school to try to repeat or avenge their loss.

The NBA's age limit figures to be a contentious part of the next collective bargaining agreement negotiations between the league and its players (either side can opt out of the CBA to renegotiate, and potentially initiate a work stoppage, in summer 2017).

Since taking office, Silver has made no secret of his desire to expand the current "one-and-done" arrangement and keep American players from entering the draft until two years after their high school graduation. New National Basketball Players Association president Michele Roberts has pushed back on a possible change, telling espnW.com she's "completely against it."

The age limit has been analyzed in many ways, including in my study last year that suggested players develop faster by entering the NBA rather than returning for their sophomore season. But I'm not sure anyone has addressed the question of whether it would be better for the league's talent pool to keep players in college another year, a scenario my wins above replacement player (WARP) ratings are uniquely suited to answer.

One-and-done track record

The 2006 draft was the first with the age limit in place, but because they feared a possible two-year rule, a record nine players were drafted out of high school in 2005, neutering the 2006 rookie crop. One-and-done began in earnest in 2007, when Kevin Durant (Texas) and Greg Oden (Ohio State) dominated college basketball en route to becoming the first two picks.

Since then, an average of eight freshmen per year have been drafted and made NBA rosters. Year-by-year, here's how they've performed as a group:

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The big takeaway here are the WARP totals, which get to the fundamental question of whether one-and-done rookies are adding to the NBA's talent pool. WARP compares these rookies to replacement level, the type of performance we'd expect from the minor league talents who would fill their spots on NBA rosters.

In six of the eight years, one-and-done players have contributed at an above-replacement level -- three of those double-digit WARP -- and on average they've produced 5.6 wins per year the league otherwise would not have had. (Naturally, there would still be the same number of wins, but the talent level would be lower.)

More intriguing than the overall totals is the distribution of their performance compared to all NBA players during the same span. While there are one-and-done rookies who rate worse than replacement level taking up roster spots because teams anticipate they will eventually develop into quality players, the same is true of the league as a whole because most players in the NBA rate near replacement level:

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Meanwhile, preventing American players from entering the NBA until two years after high school would have robbed the league of four of the seven rookie-of-the-year winners in the one-and-done era, and a handful of players who were immediate contributors. Here are the rookie WARP leaders among one-and-done players:

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It's hard to imagine the NBA being a better league without these players around for their rookie seasons.

The NBA can point to the recent trend of one-and-done players struggling the past two seasons, when they have collectively contributed at a below-replacement level. At this point, that seems more like a fluke than a trend. The 2013-14 rookie class was historically poor as a group, regardless of experience level, and has improved dramatically this season. Both years also were hit by a series of injuries to prominent rookies such as Jabari Parker and Julius Randle, and while it's tempting to blame it on young players not being ready for the rigors of the NBA schedule, no such effect was evident in previous years.

By the time CBA negotiations begin in earnest during the 2016-17 season, we'll have another year's worth of data to consider. My expectation is that the crop of 2015 freshmen, led by Okafor, Winslow, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns and Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, will reverse the recent pattern and perform at an above-replacement level next season. In that case, it will be more challenging to argue that the level of play in the NBA would be better with a higher age limit.
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Ford & Pelton:
Debating Dekker vs. Winslow

The NCAA final is Monday night, and while NBA scouts didn't get to see the matchup they wanted between likely top two picks Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns, the consolation prize is pretty good. They do get to see the two hottest names in the NCAA tournament -- Duke's Justise Winslow and Wisconsin's Sam Dekker -- go head-to-head.

Q: Which wing has the better NBA future: Winslow or Dekker?

Ford: I really like both players -- a lot. Both are worthy of lottery picks in my opinion. However, I think Winslow is the better prospect. He's at No. 6 in my Top 100 and has been in the top 10 most of the year. Dekker is good too. He has moved up to No. 13 in our updated Top 100, and I think he has a great shot in the lottery.

Kevin? I think you have a pretty different take.

Pelton: You might be surprised. I'm not as down on Winslow as my statistical projections. Even with his great run, Winslow still hasn't cracked the top 30 in projected WARP. However, when you break it down Winslow has really had three different seasons: nonconference play, when he was OK but unspectacular; a stretch early in ACC competition where he played ineffectively through multiple minor injuries; and the past 20 games, where he has emerged as a possible top-five pick.

Really, it's hard to tell statistically that these stat lines come from the same player:

View media item 1480000

If we do consider those three different prospects, Winslow's WARP projection is 1.3 from nonconference play (which would rank 35th among prospects in the top 100), 0.8 from the stretch where he dealt with injuries (49th) and 2.3 over the past 19 games (13th, but just behind fellow potential top-five picks Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis).

I'm not sure we should completely discount the Winslow we saw over the first couple of months. In general, it's not a good idea to throw out data unless it's clearly flawed -- such as Winslow's obviously aberrant performance while battling injuries. But this does give statistical backup for what scouts are seeing in Winslow, and frankly anyone who has watched him during the NCAA tournament.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but at this point Dekker might be a touch overrated. For the first time, he's actually higher on your board than mine (15th) since his big NCAA tournament has been built largely on unsustainably hot shooting that hasn't improved his projection. So I would pick Winslow.

Q: What are Winslow's strengths and weaknesses as a pro?

Ford: I think Winslow has several advantages over Dekker that make him the better pro prospect. He has an NBA body and elite athletic ability. Dekker is a very good athlete, but he's not a Justise Winslow-type athlete. Winslow is both incredibly quick and an explosive leaper. I think he plays with one of the best motors in college basketball. He goes all out on every play. He's a good rebounder for his position. He has the ability to be an elite defender who can guard 2s, 3s, and 4s. He's also proved to be a good 3-point shooter when he gets his feet set under him.

The downsides for Winslow primarily center on his total lack of a midrange game. He's shooting 26 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season according to hoop-math.com. That's really, really ugly, though that number has improved quite a bit over the past month. He's also a poor free throw shooter. He can be turnover-prone. And if he's a 3 he's slightly undersized for his position, though his 6-foot-10 wingspan makes up for some of it.

What do the numbers say, Kevin?

Pelton: Remarkably, over the course of the season, Winslow doesn't score as in the top or bottom quarter of incoming NBA small forwards in any key stat. Again, that's different over the second half of the season. His steal rate in particular (3.1 percent of opponents' plays) is elite, and his 56.0 percent 2-point shooting in that span is also very good for a wing.

The biggest concern I see in Winslow's stats is his 64.4 percent free throw shooting. He has been good but not great at the charity stripe since getting healthy (72.0 percent). As I noted recently when projecting R.J. Hunter, free throw percentage is actually a better predictor of NBA 3-point shooting than college 3-point percentage because the samples are usually so small. So don't expect Winslow's 41.7 percent accuracy to carry over.

Q: What are Dekker's strengths and weaknesses as a pro?

Ford: He's got great size for his position. He's 6-9 and can play the 2, 3 and 4. He's incredibly tough and scrappy. He's a very good athlete with quickness and explosion at the rim. When he's keyed in, he can be very aggressive and score from anywhere on the floor. He's especially effective scoring at the rim (shooting a very impressive 75 percent) and while he's a streaky 3-point shooter, he clearly has the range. His super-low turnover rate is also really impressive.

On the downside, Dekker can disappear for stretches and even entire games. The hyperaggressive Dekker we've seen for most of the NCAA tournament (he did disappear in the middle of the Kentucky game before coming on strong at the end) isn't always the Dekker we've seen this season. And while he has been nailing 3s in the tournament, coming into the tournament, he was shooting just a shade above 30 percent for the season.

Pelton: That's a pretty good summary. Dekker's turnover-free play is a secret strength, one reason the numbers have always been so effusive even when he wasn't making 3s. Dekker is also a high-percentage 2-point shooter: 63.8 percent this season. The lack of aggression is reflected in Dekker's poor free throw rate. One other weakness I'd note is Dekker's steal rate is a touch low for a perimeter player -- though nowhere near a red flag.

Q: Who are the comps for Winslow and Dekker?

Ford: A couple of comps come to mind for Winslow. I keep hearing James Harden, but I don't see that at all. I think he plays with the energy, toughness and has the intangibles of a Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Remember MKG helped UK win a title playing sidekick to Anthony Davis with many saying it was he, not Davis, who was the most important player on that Kentucky team. He ended up going No. 2 overall in a very good draft and one can argue he's the most important player (ESPN's real-plus minus would say the best) on the Hornets at the ripe old age of 21. Winslow plays essentially the same function next to Okafor. But he's a better shooter and has a better body.

I think I like the Kawhi Leonard comp even better. Leonard was a little bigger and a little more established, but I think both could have a similar impact on both ends.

As for Dekker, I keep hearing Gordon Hayward and Keith Van Horn, because, as you know, there's an unwritten rule that all white players have to be compared to other white players. But the two guys who remind me the most of Dekker are Luol Deng and Jeff Green. What do your numbers say, Kevin? I admit I'm horrible at finding comps. Both guys are pretty unique.

Pelton: Here's a scary but true fact: Over the second half of the season, Winslow has posted both steal and block rates better than Kidd-Gilchrist and Leonard did as freshmen. That should speak to his potential. I see the Harden comparison, but only in terms of how they handle the ball, not overall style of play. Similar to Harden, Winslow likes to Eurostep in the open court and has the same habit of carrying the ball with it exposed to defenders, inviting them to foul him.

Leonard does score quite close to Winslow's second half (Kidd-Gilchrist, oddly, is more similar to the overall season). But in either case, the No. 1 comp is Thaddeus Young. If Winslow is Young on offense and Kidd-Gilchrist on defense, that's a valuable player.

SCHOENE isn't much help with Dekker. His best comp by a large margin is James Anderson, the Oklahoma State wing who evolved into a one-dimensional 3-point specialist before falling out of the NBA. I can't say I see Dekker following the same path. Hayward actually scores as reasonably similar, though he's a much better shooter than Dekker. A subjective comp I've been using is Harrison Barnes in terms of a wing with size, but Barnes also shoots it better. Dekker might just be one of a kind.

Q: Who do you have winning the national title?

Ford: I had Kentucky. Obviously that's out. So I'm going with Wisconsin. I think it will be a very good game and very, very close, but I just love the way Wisconsin is playing right now. They have so much confidence and swagger.

Pelton: I'm going Duke. Like Winslow, the Blue Devils have made a stunning in-season transition, developing into an elite defense after struggling so badly that Coach K was forced to the zone for extended stretches. Both teams are determined to take away opponent 3-point attempts, and between Winslow's slashing and Okafor's ability to score one-on-one in the post, I think Duke is more equipped to win without making 3s. The Blue Devils made just three triples in blowing out Michigan State and two against Utah in the regional semifinal.
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http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2015/in...ating-sam-dekker-vs-justise-winslow-nba-draft
 
Hoping for a good matchup between Okafor &Kaminsky tonight.

Does Kam shoot up the boards to a top 5-7 pick if he has a great game?
 
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Osh Kosh Bosh said:
 
NickFolarin said:
Archie Goodwin
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getting paid millions of dollars, I think he made the right choice.
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I don't think he did. Losing Nerlens Noel & playing with Ryan Harrow hurt his stock, because Goodwin tried to carry the load, and at times did too much. If he stayed another year, he would have had a better supporting cast and could have showed consistency and been a potential lottery pick. Zach LaVine went 13th in the draft; I believe Archie could have went before him. 

At this point of his career, after his rookie deal is over, Archie may get a 1-year "show me" deal with another team. If he fails to impress, he realistically my be out the league soon. 
 
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wildKYcat said:
Archie Goodwin? lol... did you ever see Archie shoot a basketball in college?
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That is exactly what my point was; he was flawed. Having better players around you, hides your flaws to a certain degree. He averaged 11 shots a game.... Doing To Much!
 
NickFolarin said:
I don't think he did. Losing Nerlens Noel & playing with Ryan Harrow hurt his stock, because Goodwin tried to carry the load, and at times did too much. If he stayed another year, he would have had a better supporting cast and could have showed consistency and been a potential lottery pick. Zach LaVine went 13th in the draft; I believe Archie could have went before him. 

At this point of his career, after his rookie deal is over, Archie may get a 1-year "show me" deal with another team. If he fails to impress, he realistically my be out the league soon. 
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Or he could have gotten injured, tore his ACL, played worse, gotten benched for the Harrisons. ect ect and end up a second rounder.



You are operating under the fallacy that college prepares you for the NBA. It's doesn't, the NBA is a completely different game with complete different rules, with way better players and coaches.

The limits on practice time, the worse coaching, you are significantly better of on an NBA roster, with millions of dollar in your pocket and access to great coaching and facilities.

The only thing that would be different about Archie's career is he would have less money.


The only thing that matters is being a first round pick.
 
just for argument's sake, if college doesn't prepare you or make you better, why were guys in the past staying for 1-3 years before going pro?
 
I have to disagree with you.

Great College coaches have fully adapted to prep kids for what to expect from an NBA "job"

The sheer amount of hours in college in/at practice-film-weight room-meetings(how to handle the media) all are SIGNIFICANT preparation for the pressures of the NBA.

I really think this is invaluable for these 18-19 y/o kids who have no idea how to handle the expectations from the real world/media/organizations.


I went to a big athletic program university (Texas) and had a class with Durant/D.James/Abrams and basically half the football team, they definitely aren't spending ANY time in class and book learning :lol:


If you look strictly on-court of course COMPLETELY different games. NBA >>>> NCAA

And... for the most part you can learn on the fly in the NBA but... some guys just aren't ready for it.

I love the 1-year rule. I think it has helped.
 
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and I won't get into it but the "wayyyyy better coaches in the NBA" is completely false.

Byron Scott/Kevin McHale/Ty Corbin/Derek Fisher and a multitude of other coaches would like to have a word :lol:
 
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i wouldnt lump Fish in with those people. Fisher's actually done a decent job this year. He just has a team full of scrubs. Not even Pop would have those bums doing well.
 
JohnnyRedStorm said:
just for argument's sake, if college doesn't prepare you or make you better, why were guys in the past staying for 1-3 years before going pro?
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Because scouting wasn't as crazy and intense as it is today. Way bigger risk to stay these days.
 
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