http://upsidemotor.com/2015/02/18/nba-mock-draft-2015-okafor-towns-russell-mudiay/
http://www.sbnation.com/college-bas...ein-karl-towns-florida-joakim-noah-al-horford
If I need a pure shooter in this class, R.J. Hunter's my guy. I'd take him as high as the #18 to #22 range. I don't agree with Upside & Motor that Booker is the better shooter. Hunter's efficiency is down this year but that's partially attributed to added attention from opposing defenses. Although the benefit is he's learning to pass better. Decent defender but not a world-class athlete, with mediocre lateral movement.
I strongly share your sentiment, and we rarely agree.
This is true. He's directly from the Morey school of thought, stockpile assets regardless of positional jam.
He's done film breakdowns for Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns already. If anyone is interested, I can post those too.Tyus Jones thrives in big moments
If not for the focus on his 6-foot-11 teammate Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones would be having an All-American freshman season. It may take the big guy leaving for the NBA to appreciate how good Jones is now and will be in the future.
The 6-1 Jones, who won a Minnesota State 4A title in high school and three FIBA gold medals as part of USA Basketball, is the ultimate winner with a nearly complete college point guard package. In fact, the word best used to describe him is "poised."
Playing as a freshman at Duke is challenging enough because of the bull's-eye that the Blue Devils play with versus every opponent on the schedule. But while being a freshman point guard for Mike Krzyzewski comes with its own set of challenges, it's clear he has met his coach's high standards.
Jones, in fact, has been at his best in Duke's biggest games this season. Against the Blue Devils' six ranked opponents, he is averaging 15.3 points on 55 percent shooting from the floor and 47 percent behind the arc. Plus, in those six games, he has posted an impressive 29-to-4 assist-to-turnover mark.
The first thing that jumps out about Jones' game is his great vision and pinpoint passing ability. He makes long "lay it out front" passes in transition effortlessly. In the half court, he moves the ball instinctively to the correct teammate without it sticking in his own hands.
When I watch point guards on tape, I like to rewind the play a few times to see what the player is "seeing" when he begins to make a play. I try to notice the point on the tape that he realizes his teammate is open. This is where Jones excels because he is always thinking one move ahead of the defense.
This play is a perfect example. Watch how Jones finds Justise Winslow on this game-tying pass late in Duke's win at No. 2 Virginia. He knows that Winslow is open under the basket before the pass out from Okafor even hits his hands.
Not blessed with extraordinary quickness, Jones knows how to change speeds to keep defenders at bay. His ability to go from slow to fast allows him to beat defenders to the lane off the dribble.
Although Jones is involved in the pick-and-roll only 14 percent of the time on offensive possessions, he is in the top 2 percent of efficiency in college basketball, according to Synergy Sports Technology.
In this pick-and-roll play against Florida State, watch how Jones uses his quickness to split the Seminoles' trap with a quick change-of-direction dribble into the paint. At the same time, he spots teammate Marshall Plumlee behind the defense on the weak side and drops off a pass that leads to an easy dunk.
Although Jones is shooting only 52 percent at the rim in the half court, he has the potential for a proficient "floater game" because he has a good shooting touch and good body balance. This is a must for a point guard of Jones' stature.
By comparison, here is a cross-section of some of the top point guards in college basketball and their ability to make shots at the rim, according to hoop-math.com.
View media item 1408235
Watch how Jones gets by 6-5 Virginia freshman Devon Hall, changes speeds and gets to the basket. Jones is very good at using the backboard to "deaden his shot" because the quicker he gets to the rim, the softer the shot must become while he is on the move.
Jones has proved to be a very good outside shooter. He is shooting 40 percent from the 3-point line and is shooting 46 percent in half-court possessions. As impressive is that his combination of poise and shooting ability make him seemingly impervious to pressure.
This late-game "dagger" 3-point shot at Virginia put the Blue Devils up six and shut the door on the Cavaliers' chance to win the game.
There are areas where Jones can certainly improve. He is not an explosive athlete, so versus top-level defenders he does not get into the lane as easily off the dribble without the use of ball screens.
That same lack of elite foot speed challenges him as a defender. Numerous times this season he has struggled to keep the ball in front of him. While he is not Duke's only culprit in that area, it is a reason why Krzyzewski has used a zone more this season than in any previous campaign I can remember.
In guarding Virginia's London Perrantes, watch how flat-footed Jones is as Perrantes turns the corner and drives to the basket. Jones is upright and not in position athletically to recover and get in front of the ball.
This lack of elite athleticism will be problematic at the NBA level if Jones cannot compensate. Some tout him as a one-and-done to enter the NBA draft, but I am not sure that is the wise move.
In Jones' favor are his age and physical maturity, as he does not turn 19 years old until May. Combine that with all the outstanding qualities he possesses at the moment and he'll have NBA opportunities in the future. I believe, however, that at the moment, he's on the fringe of the first round of the NBA draft.
More importantly, Jones' freshman season has been a huge success. There have been some outstanding freshman point guards at Duke under Coach K, beginning with current Harvard coach Tommy Amaker. The names are now familiar: Hurley, Jay-Will, Wojo and Kyrie. It's fair to say that, two-thirds of the way through the Blue Devils' 2014-15 season, Jones is a name that belongs on that list.
Wiz dropped the ball trading Clarky last draft. He'll have a better NBA career than Grant when it's all said and done.
Karl-Anthony TownsFilm Session: Duke center Jahlil Okafor
Players such as Duke’s Jahlil Okafor don’t come around college basketball very often. In fact, unlike in the days of Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon and even Tim Duncan, they don’t stay very long, either.
So enjoy watching this 6-foot-11 freshman now before he leaves for the NBA draft in June. He will be the No. 1 pick.
I’ve watched Okafor since after his freshman year at Chicago’s Whitney Young High School. I worked with him at the LeBron James Skills Academy and saw him dominate international competition at the FIBA Under-19 World Championship in Prague before his senior year.
What makes Okafor so special is that he knows who he is as a player. Blessed with a unique combination of great agility, soft hands, keen timing and fundamentally sound footwork, he operates almost exclusively in the low post. This is his playground, even though he could operate on the perimeter effectively if he chose.
I’ve tried to watch every offensive possession of Okafor’s freshman season, and I have come away impressed as a coach. He is shooting 68 percent from inside the arc, with most of those shots coming at the rim. I can’t remember, in the past decade or more, a freshman who has more back-to-the-basket polish than he does. In fact, according to Synergy, since 2006-07 only six major-conference players have scored at least 250 points on post-ups. Okafor is poised to join this group.
Let’s look closer at Okafor’s game and break down some of the things he does exceptionally well as a post player.
1. Catch and Look Middle
In the low post, Okafor almost always catches and looks middle. By doing this, he gets to read 95 percent of the floor.
When he looks over his inside shoulder, Okafor can locate where his own defender is. If the defender is on the high side, Okafor can spin baseline easily because of his uncanny footwork. And if the defender plays behind, Okafor will work the ball off the dribble to the middle of the lane, where he can use his jump hook.
By looking to the middle of the floor, Okafor can locate the help-side defense in anticipation of double-teams, along with the guards who will “drop and dig” on the basketball. It’s not unlike a quarterback reading defensive coverages to pick up a blitz. And finally, when Okafor looks to the middle, he can locate his teammates spotting up or cutting to the basket.
Here against UConn, Okafor sees that Huskies defender Phillip Nolan is playing erect, limiting his lateral quickness, and that the help-side defender is hugging his own man. So Okafor spins to the basket somewhat unimpeded and dunks.
Here in Duke’s win at Wisconsin, Okafor catches and looks middle again, and when Badgers defender Nigel Hayes stops his spin move to the baseline, Okafor stays patient. See how he uses his dribble to play back to the middle before spinning again to the baseline and scoring.
By the way, Okafor, unlike a lot of young post players, is equally adept at posting on either block and over either shoulder with excellent effectiveness. This keeps teams from treating him like a one-armed bandit and forcing him to a weak hand.
Hall of Fame coach John Chaney used to say: “The middle is 'we,' the baseline is 'me.' " In other words, if you look to the middle, you can do more for your team and yourself. That epitomizes the effectiveness of Okafor in the low post.
2. Play off the lane
Okafor also operates well just off the lane in the low post, where he can face up to make a quick move or back into the post off the dribble.
I always had a rule for feeding the low post. We tried to pass from the wing below the foul line extended. If you drew a direct line from the passer to the low-post player to the basket, you could see that the pass took the post player to the basket if the defender played on the top side, or would put the post in a position to catch the ball in the lane.
In this sequence, notice how Quinn Cook -- the passer -- is set up in a direct line with Okafor and the basket. This allows the big man to catch the ball as deep as he possibly can. In this case, Okafor catches the pass with one foot in the paint. This allows him to turn and shoot at close range over his smaller defender.
If we fed the low post from above the foul line extended, that entry pass from the wing on a straight line would take the post player off the lane. That was not an optimum play for me as a coach because, for most college post players without an offensive repertoire, that would render them ineffective.
Fortunately, when the Blue Devils feed Okafor above the foul line extended on a pass that takes him off the lane in this sequence, it still puts him at an advantage. He has the shooting touch to make shots straight on or off the backboard from 10 feet. And he is mobile enough to drive to his left and his right and then spin off pressure when necessary.
3. Play the high-low game
In Duke's recent game versus Wake Forest, Demon Deacons coach Danny Manning (a pretty good college post player in his own right) had 6-9, 255-pound Devin Thomas trap Okafor as soon as he caught the ball in the low post. This good, hard double-team took away his ability to be patient and survey the floor and forced him into two early turnovers.
Interestingly, in Duke's loss at NC State on Sunday, Okafor struggled on a number of double-teams the Wolfpack sent his way early, but then quickly adjusted. He made a couple of quick post moves before the trap arrived. Then he passed to the opposite side of the floor or to fellow freshman Justise Winslow cutting. Finally, Okafor dribbled out of the trap to the perimeter, eliminated it, and then adroitly dribbled himself back inside to a one-on-one opportunity.
One of the ways to neutralize a post-to-post double-team -- and the only time I advocated a pass from above the foul line extended -- is to feed the ball from the high post, where the other defender has a greater distance to cover in order to trap. In the Blue Devils' case, they play the high-low game effectively, which allows Okafor to get two feet in the deep paint so he can utilize his offensive skills one-on-one.
Watch how Winslow and Okafor play high-low.
Okafor ends up sealing his man away from the basket to create room for a lob pass over the top of the defender. And Winslow’s defender is unable to get inside the double-team in time.
4. Broken plays
Because Okafor is so agile and fundamentally sound for his size, he can turn broken plays into points almost effortlessly. What are broken plays? These are plays that happen in a game that have very little to do with organized offense.
So, for example, when Okafor runs the floor, he can catch sometimes inaccurate passes on the move, gather himself with balance, and make soft touch shots. In addition, he is a terrific putback finisher on offensive rebound opportunities. Balls fall awkwardly into his hands and he’s not unprepared. Finally, he understands the geography around the basket and can contort his body and score even when he looks to be out of position.
Conclusion
The biggest challenge that awaits Okafor the rest of the season, in my opinion, will not be physical but rather cerebral. He is a dominant player on the college level and will require maximum attention from every opponent on Duke’s schedule.
Where he will continue to improve is in his already outstanding basketball acumen. Okafor faces a test of wits with some of the best coaches in the game in the ACC for the next two months. So he will need to be able to recognize the different defensive schemes designed specifically to stop him.
But don’t worry. He is a quick study, and it’s going to be fun to watch him grow up before our eyes before we say goodbye to him at the end of this college basketball season.
Film Session: Karl-Anthony Towns
The NBA draft has become a baseball draft.
Because of the relative youth of recent drafts, very few players per year can step into an NBA lineup and contribute immediately. Similar to MLB, more and more selections are based on long-term (three-to-five year) projections.
Which brings me to Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns. The 7-foot, 250-pound freshman with a 7-foot-3 wingspan will be one of the top three players selected on June 25. And although the 19-year-old is not as advanced as fellow Wildcat Anthony Davis was at the same stage, he is the basketball equivalent of a five-tool guy, with a nice combination of skill, size, athleticism, youth and a "give a damn" meter than runs high.
However, unlike Duke's Jahlil Okafor, he is not the focal point of Kentucky's team even if he is its best NBA prospect. To compare, Okafor has had 15 games of eight attempts or more for the Blue Devils while Towns had not had even one game with more than eight field goal attempts.
The first subtle attribute that jumps out to me about Towns is that he is an alert player on both ends of the floor. Watch him closely for 10 minutes of any game and you'll notice that he has a good feel. Something I see as a coach is that rebounds he can't grab initially, he'll tip to himself.
On the defensive end, he is proving to be -- because of his considerable length, timing and instincts -- a prolific shot-blocker. In fact, his block rate, according to kenpom.com, is a robust 14 percent, fifth-best in the country. In Tuesday's win against Vanderbilt, he blocked seven shots in just 18 minutes.
In this recent win over Missouri at home, look at Towns' extension on these blocked shots. He is at the TOP of the square on the board when he rejects the second shot. This takes outstanding timing, a product of his athletic ability. This is what I would describe as "rim protection."
He also possesses good lateral quickness for a player his size which, combined with his basketball I.Q., allows him to effectively defend screen-and-roll and isolation plays. With so much of the college game starting to be influenced by the NBA's screen-and-roll and one-on-one concepts, finding a young big man who can defend away from the basket is critical.
See how Towns jumps out to hedge on the screen-and-roll, switches onto the ball and keeps an Eastern Kentucky guard in front of him. He "walls off the basket," staying between the ball and the basket until the offensive player has to pass the ball back out.
The first time I studied Towns closely was when he was a 16-year-old high school player from New Jersey, who because of his mother's Dominican roots, was playing for John Calipari and the Dominican Republic national team in 2012. Just failing to qualify for the London Olympics, the team was taking on Team USA in an exhibition game in Las Vegas.
Despite Towns' massive size even then, he had all the mannerisms of a normal 16-year-old. And at that time, he was spending an inordinate amount of time playing on the perimeter and eschewing physical play around the basket. When I asked him about that, he told me he worked on his outside game as an antidote to being double- and triple-teamed and picking up cheap fouls in his high school games. It made perfect sense.
And Towns still has a unique ability to stretch a defense with his outside shooting although he's attempted only seven 3-point shots this season. It hasn't needed to be part of his offensive arsenal, but it is a capable weapon he is likely to show off during his NBA career. One NBA scout told me he watched Towns make 13 straight college 3-point shots before a recent Kentucky game.
Towns has shown terrific offensive agility in the open floor. In the Wildcats' win at Louisville, he had an open-court move and finish that was ridiculous. Look at him handle the ball at mid-court and finish with a swooping move to the basket.
Most importantly to Towns' future development is that he has begun to embrace physical contact in the paint. He works hard for position and has all the attributes that will make him an outstanding low-post scorer, including a soft shooting touch that, along with his size, translates well to the painted area.
Right now, for obvious reasons -- he is a righty -- he turns to his left to shoot a right-handed jump hook almost exclusively. Check out his release point on both of these jump hook shots against Louisville.
And while his right-hand jump hook over his left shoulder is his go-to move, he possesses an increasingly deft shooting touch with his left hand, as well. He utilizes it here in this game versus Ole Miss.
I used the baseball analogy earlier, in part, because I believe college basketball at its highest levels is the equivalent of Double-A baseball right now. More and more top players are leaving for the NBA early and the talent level, in my opinion, has been diluted. So starring at this level is no guarantee of future stardom in the NBA. (Look at how many first-round picks last June are not yet contributing for their teams.)
I've tried to watch Towns closely and I have talked with him and to people close to him. The sense is he loves the game, is very coachable and is willing to work hard to improve. It's the same sense I get about him from NBA people who are following him carefully.
Towns is a young player with the long-term potential to be a professional star, but he will arrive in the NBA as still relatively raw and physically immature (however with immense talent). He may not yet have the polish that Okafor possesses, but automatically thinking the Duke big man will be better five to 10 years from now is premature.
Stanley JohnsonRussell is draft's most skilled player
Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell is the most skilled player in June's NBA draft.
Barring an injury, the No. 1 pick has been established. It will be Duke big man Jahlil Okafor. Look for Russell (who turns 19 on Feb. 23) to make a strong case to be selected next.
At 6-foot-5 and armed with a 6-9 wingspan, Russell has a unique ability to control a college basketball game with his scoring, passing, basketball intelligence and leadership. But most impressive is that he already possesses the poise and countenance of a 10-year NBA veteran.
Virtually everything the left-handed Russell has accomplished for Ohio State this season has been done with great efficiency. In fact, he makes spectacular plays look simple, and simple plays, from a coach's perspective, look spectacular.
Let's start with his passing. Although Russell is the leading freshman scorer in the country at 19.4 points per game, it is his incredible vision and confidence to throw passes into tight spots that impress me the most, and he is averaging 5.2 assists a contest.
Great passers find teammates who often don't even realize that they are open. A perfect example of this creativity is this one-hand bounce pass against Northwestern. Watch how Russell waits for Sam Thompson to clear the screen before delivering this perfect pass with great wrist strength. To me, this is the "pass of the year" in college basketball.
This full-court bounce pass to Thompson at home versus Michigan is another example of Russell's vision and passing touch. It's a perfect example of making a spectacular play look routine.
As Hall of Fame coach Pete Carril used to say: "The quality of your shots is directly related to the quality of your passes." Russell exemplifies this trait.
In addition to his passing, Russell is a prolific scorer and an outstanding shooter with NBA range. He has what I call an effortless shooting stroke with great economy of movement. More than halfway through the Buckeyes' season, he is shooting 44.6 percent from the 3-point line.
But most impressive is his accuracy from behind the arc on the move in the open court. He has been just as accurate in transition as he has been in the half court. In fact, he is shooting 46 percent in fast-break situations.
On nearly back-to-back possessions versus Maryland, Russell's ability to stop and pop off the dribble demonstrates a difficult shot to master for a young player. But as you see below, he makes it look easy.
Russell uses his dribble in the half court to create the separation needed to get his jump shot. Here, down the stretch against Northwestern, he drives left, gets the Wildcats' defender to fall down and then raises up to hit a clutch jump shot.
He is not a "one-armed bandit," but his tendency as a young player is to drive right to a pull-up jump shot or drive to his strong side to get to the rim or shoot his pull-up jump shot as well. But he is further along in the development of his weak hand than most NBA prospects at his age.
Needless to say, in easier to perfect catch-and-shoot situations from behind the 3-point line, Russell is just as accurate.
If there are areas of concern for Russell's long-term future, one is major and the other is minor, in my opinion.
First, his athleticism is not at an elite NBA level -- and may never be. Some NBA teams may be scared off by that. Russell is a tall and rangy guard, but he will need to find a way to defend the dynamic athletes in NBA backcourts. Staying in front of quick point guards and guarding big, physical shooting guards will be his greatest challenge early in his career.
Fortunately, his youth comes with the likely potential of physical long-term development. Time is on his side.
Here is an example of some components of Russell's athletic ability. After the anticipation of stealing this pass versus Michigan on the baseline, he is able to weave his way through the defense and finish at the other end of the court. It's certainly not Russell Westbrook-esque, but good enough in my opinion.
The other interesting, but minor, area of concern for Russell is not necessarily his fault. Ohio State is not a heavy screen-and-roll team and has put the ball in Russell's hands in ball screens on only 18.6 percent of his possessions. Compare that with a number of the better college point guards in the country, and you'll see that figure is low.
Four of the six players on the following list are coached by former NBA players or coaches, so they are well versed in screen-and-roll basketball.
Screen-and-roll basketball is about creating indecision at the point of a ball screen and then putting stress on the entire defense. Russell, as a freshman, does not yet have the repetitions in the screen-and-roll game to have mastered its nuances. But given his passing, ballhandling, basketball acumen, size and shooting ability, the indication is that he will be very good in this area.
When I watched Ohio State practice in late December, I was struck by Russell's maturity and by the way he directed the practice as a player. He was in complete control without the need to show he was. That leadership style, given his basketball talent and age, is an intangible that is hard to master.
Russell is a star shooting through college. He likely is off to the NBA after this season, in part because his production has already surpassed his promise.
Myles TurnerStanley Johnson's NBA upside
Arizona small forward Stanley Johnson is a bully on the basketball court. And the former No. 7-ranked high school player in the Class of 2014 has been since his freshman year at Mater Dei High School.
The 6-foot-7, 245-pound freshman -- who has been compared to Ron Artest, Kawhi Leonard and, yes, even LeBron James because of his size and strength -- is the Wildcats' leading scorer (14.7 points per game) and rebounder (6.. The big question is: Can he continue his physical dominance at the NBA level? He is highly likely to leave for the NBA draft after his only season in Tucson. Let's have a look.
Film session
Similar to every other potential lottery pick, Johnson has a lot of strengths and some areas of his game that need improvement. But one of the huge advantages he has is that he will have played his entire freshman season as an 18-year-old, not turning 19 until May 29. The recent history of success for teenagers being selected in the lottery is high, and there's some upside remaining here.
At the NBA level, Johnson will be an average athlete for the small forward position. He does not have great lateral quickness, affecting him as a perimeter defender, and being an average two-footed jumper has led to being a 34 percent shooter at the rim in half-court situations, according to hoop-math.com.
What does stand out to me about Johnson is his high energy level. He has always been an aggressive, attacking player.
In transition, Johnson is dangerous. For his size, he is a very good ball handler in the open court. Watch how effortlessly and quickly he changes direction with the ball versus San Diego State in the Maui Invitational. He finishes at the other end with a nice scoop shot.
In the half court, Johnson's aggressiveness sometimes gets him in trouble. Early in the season, he was running over defenders in the lane because he tends to play out of control in traffic. Not surprisingly for a freshman, he has more turnovers than assists.
Arizona coach Sean Miller set up a late-game play for him in the Wildcats' 66-63 overtime win over Gonzaga at home in December. Watch how he spins out of control and travels before he attempts to shoot over the Zags' Domantas Sabonis and Przemek Karnowski deep in the lane. He has to recognize that, because of college rules, the lane can be packed with bodies.
A major part of Johnson's success is that that his aggressiveness manifests itself in a lot of trips to the foul line. He is drawing 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes, according to kenpom.com. That has turned into 134 free throw attempts so far this season.
Johnson is also grabbing more than two offensive rebounds per game, which he is turning into scoring chances. Against a very tough San Diego State team, watch him look like he is shot out of a cannon as he crashes the offensive glass from the perimeter. He shows some very good "second jump" ability, although he winds up not finishing the play.
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Where Johnson has shown improvement is in his outside shooting. He's making 39 percent of his 3-point attempts (although he's only 8-for-24 in Pac-12 play) and is hitting nearly 50 percent of his 2-point jump shots, according to hoop-math.com.
Some have questioned his shooting stroke, but I see nothing in it that can't be corrected. First of all, his form is compact and has few moving parts, making it easily repeatable. And when he finishes with a high follow-through, the arc of his shot improves his accuracy.
Watch his shot preparation before he catches the pass from T.J. McConnell, and how effortless his follow-through is on this 3-point shot.
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At the NBA level, he'll eventually learn that spot-up shooting will become a strength. And I would love to see him trust his one-dribble or two-dribble pull-up jump shot because finishing at the rim early in his career will be a challenge.
One area where Johnson can take advantage of his strength in the NBA would be in developing a post-up game a la the Blazers' 6-5 shooting guard Wesley Matthews. Because Arizona has a plethora of players who clog the lane on offense, Johnson has been used in post-up situations in less than four percent of his offensive possessions, according to Synergy.
Perimeter defense will present another challenge for Johnson.
First, there have been many possessions in Arizona's half-court defense this season in which Johnson has had a lack of concentration with regard to team defense. While it has been an issue, it is a very common occurrence with young players. It is something he can work to improve if he wants to play in the NBA.
The more important concern to me is lateral foot speed, which will affect his ability to defend dynamic NBA small forward athletes.
Watch how Stanford's Anthony Brown curls off a pin-down screen but Johnson is never able to get back in front of him. His effort level at the start of the play gets him in trouble, as well. That will change with maturity and experience.
Luckily for Johnson in his one season at Arizona under Miller, he is getting a defensive tutorial. Once he gets to the NBA and recognizes how critical it will be for him, he will embrace the chance to improve defensively.
I've been around Johnson at various all-star camps, talked with him and have talked with people who have coached him and know him well. He has a couple of major favorable intangibles.
First, he is a proven winner. He is the only player ever to win four straight upper-division state titles in California, and his teams went 135-5 in his high school career. He's also won three FIBA gold medals for USA Basketball.
Secondly, he is a gym rat and worker. He will have soaked up a season's worth of great coaching under Miller and the staff at Arizona. That type of coaching will continue in the NBA. So the weaknesses that I have pointed out will be worked on and improved. Given his age, his ceiling is very high.
Film Session: Myles Turner
The 2015 NBA draft lottery will feature some of the nation's premier freshmen big men, and Texas' 6-foot-11 center Myles Turner no doubt belongs in that group. Though he was less hyped in high school compared to fellow first-year college big men Jahlil Okafor (ESPN's No. 1-rated player) and Karl-Anthony Towns (No. 9) due to a broken ankle, Turner earned the No. 2 overall ranking and signed with Texas over Kansas.
Similar to Towns at Kentucky, Turner is sharing minutes on a crowded and talented front line. But after watching a lot of games both in person and on film, it's clear to me that he has the most long-term potential of the Longhorns' post players.
The most impressive aspects of Turner's game are his shooting touch, his length and his age. He won't even turn 19 until March 24. Unfortunately, Texas will not reap the benefits of his vast potential, because he will be long gone from Austin before that happens.
For his size, Turner shoots the basketball better than average from post-ups off the lane, in the midrange and behind the college 3-point arc. His current 88.6 percent free throw shooting is an indication of his soft touch.
Because Turner has a high release point on his shot, coupled with his long frame, he has a turnaround shot in the low post that has become his weapon of choice. He also has developed an ability to pivot quickly and square up in the air while pivoting that is very, very hard to defend.
In this game at Iowa State, notice how quickly and efficiently Turner gets his shot off.
Because of Turner's lack of strength right now, he is more comfortable playing from 10 feet away from the basket as opposed to banging bodies inside.
Turner has good footwork in the low post for a young big man. He uses "the Sikma move" (so named for former NBA star Jack Sikma), which allows him to pivot away from his defender inside and create the separation needed to get his shot off. I've also seen him use a Dirk Nowitzki fadeaway shot that, with practice, will be a nice "bread-and-butter" move some day.
After hitting a turnaround jump shot versus Iowa State, watch how quickly he spins off the Cyclones' defender who is anticipating another jump shot.
Turner also has the potential to become a very good face-up shooter for his size. His 35 percent 3-point shooting percentage is pedestrian at the moment, but his inconsistency is mainly attributable to his lack of strength and repetitions. But I like his shooting form because it's compact and repetitive, can be repeated and honed and he has that high release point.
Here is a good example of Turner's shooting stroke as he hits a corner 3-point shot against West Virginia. Notice how high his release point is on his shot.
Defensively, while not an explosive athlete and jumper, he possesses very good timing around the basket. Coupled with his 7-foot-4 wing span, this has turned him into a very good college shot-blocker. His 12.6 block rate is currently the 14th-best in the country.
For a young post player, he is rarely baited by shot fakes and stays on his feet until the offensive player leaves the floor. Here are two plays where Turner exhibits his excellent shot-blocking ability. Watch as he's the second player to leave the floor.
While Turner is likely to fall somewhere in the NBA draft lottery, he will need to make major adjustments to his game that will take time. Because of his age, lack of strength and his body type, the physicality of the NBA will be a major issue early in his career.
Similar sentiments were made about former Longhorns and current NBA star LaMarcus Aldridge when he was in Austin. Aldridge benefited, both physically and mentally, however, from his second year at Texas before being selected as the No. 2 pick in the 2006 NBA draft. Turner will not likely get that opportunity to improve the same way.
NBA scouts I have talked to describe Turner to me as a "high hips" guy in the post, meaning his narrow base will make him easy to move off the lane. Ideally, he will be able, at some point in his career, to add the necessary 25 pounds or so that will enable him to battle inside. All indications are that he is a diligent worker in the Texas weight room.
Another area of concern for Turner is his average lateral quickness for an NBA big man. This will particularly affect him in defending pick-and-roll plays versus NBA point guards, who are arguably the most explosive athletes in the league right now.
While Turner has played better lately, overall he has had inconsistent results against the 13 power conference opponents he has faced. In December against Kentucky's massive front line, and in front of scouts from every NBA team, he had a 6-point, 5-rebound performance on 1-of-5 shooting before fouling out.
Overall, in roughly 24 minutes against Texas' best opponents, he has averaged 9.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.5 blocked shots. And he is shooting 37 percent from the field and nearly 29 percent behind the arc.
If there is a saving grace, offensively, it is his outstanding free throw shooting.
Because the NBA draft has become a "projection draft," and not one that usually fills immediate needs for teams, Turner will still end up in the lottery, in my opinion. But like so many young players coming into the NBA, his chance to impact a good team or help a poor team improve will be a work in progress.
It would be ideal for Turner's development that he stays one more season in college and become the Longhorns' go-to guy as a sophomore. But, given the nature of basketball today, that's very unlikely to happen.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports...cHale_sees__good_potential__in_McDaniels.html
Thats what i was thinking with the MCW trade...Sixers gotta be going after Mudiay or Russell, doubt they wanna take another big man
