The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

[osh kosh bosh]

Neither of those guys are better than (healthy) dwight
It's not that theyre being phased out, it's just theres not many of them anymore like you said. Now when 1 comes around and if he stays injury free, he's gonna be a problem for years and years to come.

No they are being phased out.

The rule changes have made it tougher to post up.

 

[ValarMorghulis]

I think it's more teams following the trend that focuses on spacing the floor having driving and shooting lanes as primary offense.

That's why I think it's really important New York gets him. He would be outstanding in the Triangle.


Block post-ups are obsolete, it's now mid post is the target *shrugs*

 

[durantula]

Neither of those guys are better than (healthy) dwight
It's not that theyre being phased out, it's just theres not many of them anymore like you said. Now when 1 comes around and if he stays injury free, he's gonna be a problem for years and years to come.

No they are being phased out.

The rule changes have made it tougher to post up.

Man what? Theyre just not around like that anymore. Every year tho the grizz are always a problem because they have the bigs that can bang down low and have post games.

I think it's more teams following the trend that focuses on spacing the floor having driving and shooting lanes as primary offense.

That's why I think it's really important New York gets him. He would be outstanding in the Triangle.

I agree that damn near all teams are following that trend, but again they're is hardly anyone good enough anymore that is worth playing on the block and clogging the paint.

 

[awwsome]

Pace and space is everything in the L, just look at all the top teams.

 

[durantula]

Memphis has the 3rd best record in the league...

 

[wavycrocket]

Curious as to why people don't think Okafor can develop a reliable 15 footer? Him being so advanced in the post at an early age is hurting the perception of him.

Being able to score in the post is ALWAYS an advantage. The Bulls, Grizzlies, Clippers, Spurs, Blazers, Cavs, Rockets and Hawks all have bigs that can post. Jahlil Okafor won't hinder spacing at all, and he has a soft touch.

If DMC and Blake can develop their jumpers, why can't Jahlil?

 

[awwsome]

Memphis has the 3rd best record in the league...

Just interested, who was the 1st and 2nd and 4th and 5th.....


Good try using an outlier to justify, Memphis been getting torn apart by pace and space teams this season as well and get eliminated by one in the playoffs every year.

 

[dacomeup]

Memphis has the 3rd best record in the league...

And Marc Gasol, there best player, is not a typical back to the basket 80s-90s center. 

I don't mean Harden as a carbon copy for Russell, but speaking re: potential. Agreed on his finishing needing to get better. Shooting and passing is really good. I think better finishing will come with some strength for a 19 year old kid. 

 

[champcruthik]

I'll still probably lean towards Russell over Jah.

That's a bold proclamation, and I'm on the cusp of co-signing. I've floated Russell over Jah in my mind over and over, but Okafor's rare offensive skill-set at accelerated development is awfully tempting. It makes incredible sense for my Sixers. Let's say they land the #2 pick, Towns goes first, you can't really select Jah without trading Noel or Embiid. Sixers need starting guards in the worst way, and I prefer Russell over Mudiay in a big way.

Memphis has the 3rd best record in the league...

Nobody likes defensive-minded squads more than me, but that grinding style and hard-earned possessions won't bring a title in all likelihood. It wouldn't surprise me if the Grizz won their opening series and were knocked out the next.

Interesting to see the playoff success Milwaukee has this season and Utah the next. Philly and Orlando are both building defensively conscious bases.

Curious as to why people don't think Okafor can develop a reliable 15 footer?

Jah can and probably will. My personal reason for taking Towns definitively first overall is that the gap between him and Okafor defensively is far wider than the offensive advantage Jah currently enjoys in college.

 

[mr marcus]

 

Phil better not have been one of them

@IAmDPick People that traveled to watch Mario Hezonja in flesh are calling Barcelona "clowns".

@IAmDPick Pacers, Pelicans, Spurs, Knicks, Lakers, Kings, Hawks, Nets and Memphis -- were all in Espana for Mario Hezonja.

@IAmDPick Barcelona attempts to hide Mario Hezonja with DNPs are increasing his NBA stock, a source said.

gotta love the ACB

 

[durantula]

Memphis has the 3rd best record in the league...

Just interested, who was the 1st and 2nd and 4th and 5th.....


Good try using an outlier to justify, Memphis been getting torn apart by pace and space teams this season as well and get eliminated by one in the playoffs every year.

GS Hawks... It's no surprise gs always gets dropped after an injury to a big. But ya I mean if you wanna argue regular season...be my guest

Nobody is using an outlier. They are the only team who can qualify because they have 2 very good post players and they go through them in the playoffs. Last year they got eliminated by okc after zbo got suspended. Or have you forgotten?

The go through the bigs isnt being "phased out" There's just very few bigs who have the size/skill that you can actaully go through anymore.

Memphis has the 3rd best record in the league...

And Marc Gasol, there best player, is not a typical back to the basket 80s-90s center. 


I don't mean Harden as a carbon copy for Russell, but speaking re: potential. Agreed on his finishing needing to get better. Shooting and passing is really good. I think better finishing will come with some strength for a 19 year old kid. 

Come playoff time that team goes as far as zbo takes them.

 

[awwsome]

^^^^


You have no idea what you're talking about fam, Grizz get knocked out EVERY YEAR by a pace and space team, not just last year.


2011 - OKC
2012 - LAC
2013 - SAS (Sweep)
2014 - OKC


All pace + space.

GS goes down after an injury to a big? That's because of lack of rim protection, not a post up option.


7 of the 8 playoff teams in the West? Pace and space.

Top 4 East teams? Pace and space

Every NBA champion in the last 5 years? You guessed it.

Stop tryna be contrarian when you're wrong.

 

[User 15002]

No they are being phased out.

The rule changes have made it tougher to post up.

Tim Duncan

 

[durantula]

1.) LOL at you treating okc, a team with the best scorer the NBA has seen since MJ years as a "pace and space team". No they're a team that relies 100% on superstars. They also had nobody who can post, youre not gonna clog the paint with Perkins. And Zbo got suspended last year, dont forget.
2.) Im going to need you to describe pace and space, because Blake and deandre jordan arent spacing anything.
3.) The spurs are a pace and space team, I'll give you that. Outside of them having arguably a top 3 coach of all time, they also have the best PF of all time, who is more than a very reliable post option for crying out loud.

Convenient how you leave out years 06, 08-10.

Again, back to my point. The bigs arent being "phased out", they just dont come around like they used to. This year we have Okafor who barring injury will be just fine, and KAT if (big if) he pans out are going to be serious threats for many years to come.

 

[Brownstone]

Putting the James Harden comp on Russell is completely unfair to him. He's nowhere near the athlete James is and won't be able to get to the rim as easily in the L which he feeds on.

I do think he'll be a better shooter and passer out the gate.

I'm struggling to think of an accurate comp for him

Athletically I would put them as equals coming out.

I would take him 3rd no doubt.

 

[pmatic]

To be fair, spacing has been the most valuable commodity in the NBA since about 2011.

 

[ValarMorghulis]

No they are being phased out.

The rule changes have made it tougher to post up.

Tim Duncan

Mid post.

Especially later in his career.

He literally put the mid post on the map and his face up jumper is legendary.

 

[awwsome]

To be fair, spacing has been the most valuable commodity in the NBA since about 2011.

I'm convinced a lot of these guys look at games without watching, anybody who says spacing is not the most important thing in an NBA team is out their minds.

 

[pmatic]

Justise Winslow Is Not Fair

Jahlil Okafor is 6-foot-11 and 270 pounds. He has catcher’s mitts for hands, and a Barkley-size ***. His footwork has the polish of a 10-year pro, and he’s quick enough to explode into spin moves around defenders and finish with either hand. On a college basketball floor, Okafor looks like a varsity player surrounded by eighth graders. And all of that is why it’s amazing that watching Duke right now means blurting out, “Forget about Okafor, what about THAT GUY?”

That guy is Justise Winslow.

He isn’t bigger than everyone else on the court, he’s barely polished, and it doesn’t matter. He’s the guy you can’t stop watching. I talked about him in the NBA draft notes last week, but before the Final Four picks up again this weekend, I think we need to go a little deeper here.
First of all, Winslow is the reason Duke is in the Final Four. We know that, right? In the Sweet 16, he delivered the knockout punch (21 points, 10 rebounds) when Utah was threatening to make a comeback in the second half. On Sunday it was the same thing. Gonzaga had a chance to tie the game at 53, with just under five minutes left. But Kyle Wiltjer missed a layup for the tie, and then Winslow went to work.

He attacked the rim and got fouled, draining two free throws. On the next possession, Tyus Jones missed a 3, but Winslow got the rebound and drew a foul on the putback. Two more free throws. Next possession: Winslow grabbed the board on defense, jab-stepped into the defense on the other end, and drained a 3. Seven straight points meant a two-point lead turned into nine. The game was pretty much over at that point.



It’s not a knock on the other Blue Devils to say that Winslow is the reason Duke is in the Final Four. Okafor is great, and even when he’s not dominating, he demands so much attention that it frees up his teammates. Tyus Jones is one of the most fearless freshman point guards I’ve ever seen, and he just destroyed Kevin Pangos on Sunday. Even role players like Matt Jones have stepped up.

But Winslow is the piece that’s been missing from Duke teams the past few years. Even as Coach K modernized his recruiting to add more superstars, he hasn’t had anybody with this kind of edge. Austin Rivers was fine and Jabari Parker was fun, but they didn’t bully people into submission. Okafor’s post game is beautiful, but nothing about him ever feels brutal. With Winslow, it’s different.

He overpowers big men for rebounds. His blocks demoralize people on defense. He careens through the lane in transition. The whole thing just looks exhausting for anyone stuck defending him. It’s like teams spend entire games guarding everyone else on the floor, and then look up and say, “We have to deal with THIS?”

Now he’s even hitting jumpers. He shot 40 percent from 3 during the regular season, and he is 7-12 from beyond the arc in the tournament. That jumper could make his NBA future a lot more interesting. And that’s the other part of this conversation.

There are two ways to look at Winslow’s NBA future. You can definitely make the case that he’s a top-three pick. On Monday, our college hoops savant Mark Titus wanted to know why he couldn’t go no. 1.

The question makes sense. Okafor has been considered for the no. 1 pick all year, but Winslow has been better all tournament. He has fewer questions marks than his All-American teammate and just as much as upside. As the NBA places more and more value on defense, Winslow is a guy who can guard anyone on the perimeter. Within a few years in the NBA, he could be one of the best all-around wings in the league. He’s raw as a scorer, but his shooting form is fine — unlike, say, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s — and in addition to dominating people in transition, there’s no reason to think he can’t turn into a dependable 3-point shooter. He is a future Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard. He could definitely be one of the best players on a playoff team.

I think I’m on the other side of the “top pick” debate, though. Part of this selfish. I don’t want to see Winslow shackled with the expectations that come with going that high. He would be more fun as a secondary star than a franchise savior (who can’t totally dribble yet).

No matter how great he’s looked over the past few weeks, the NBA will be a tough adjustment. He will still have an athletic advantage over almost everyone, but it won’t be as dramatic as it’s been the past few weeks. Even if he eventually settles into the Kawhi role, he won’t be overpowering teams by himself. There’s an outside chance that he improves every piece of his offense and keeps his outer-space athleticism — in other words, he turns into Russell Westbrook as a small forward — but predicting a Westbrook trajectory is as ridiculous as calling someone the next Jordan.

The real question is what you want from a top-three pick. Do you play it safe and go with a guy who could definitely be the second- or third-best player on a title team? Or do you gamble and hope for someone who could carry a team one day? Winslow should be awesome in the NBA, but fitting that second criterion is probably a stretch.

His handle is still pretty balky, and his scoring in the half court never looks completely natural. Some of that will get better, but will it ever add up to a player who’s taking over the fourth quarter of playoff games? The best scorers are born, not developed. That’s why I would still take someone like D’Angelo Russell before Winslow. The NBA may value defense now more than ever, but drafting for defense might not be the smartest play. Offense will always be more valuable. You can find a Trevor Ariza or Corey Brewer every single year. Finding James Harden happens once a decade.

All of that is beside the point this week, though. In college, this weekend, this is the dude:



Last week, I wrote that the best thing I can say about Winslow is that every time he steps on the court, I’m worried he’s going to hurt someone. That isn’t true anymore. I’ve despised Duke with all my heart for my entire life. And the best thing I can say about Justise Winslow is that he had me rooting for Duke to make the Final Four this weekend. Watching this is too much fun.

He just turned 19, and we’re seeing him grow into his game in real time. Every month, he’s gotten a little bit better. March was the meanest display yet. Now it’s April, and we’re still going.

As complicated as the NBA question gets, college is simple. Winslow is being unleashed on guys who are half as strong and nowhere near as explosive. How do you stop a grizzly bear?

I have no idea. That’s Michigan State’s problem now.

Everybody else can just watch him eat.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/244834/

 

[durantula]

To be fair, spacing has been the most valuable commodity in the NBA since about 2011.

It has 100%. Especially when near 100% of the top players in the NBA are perimeter players or extremely athletic PF's.

What I'm trying to get across is that the guys who could be a top player in the NBA who excel in "back to the basket" basketball aren't being phased out, they just simply don't come around anywhere near the rate that they used to. Since 2007, there have been only 2 bigs who have dominated to the point where they were a top prospect, Greg Oden and Cousins. That's it! We have 3 now in the last 2 years, 1 in Okafor who is most likely a sure thing, and 2 possibly in Embiid and KAT.

 

[awwsome]

Winslow.


Was high on him since HS but he's really stepped his game and is making himself more money every time he steps on the floor.

 

[pmatic]

To be fair, spacing has been the most valuable commodity in the NBA since about 2011.

It has 100%. Especially when near 100% of the top players in the NBA are perimeter players or extremely athletic PF's.

What I'm trying to get across is that the guys who could be a top player in the NBA who excel in "back to the basket" basketball aren't being phased out, they just simply don't come around anywhere near the rate that they used to. Since 2007, there have been only 2 bigs who have dominated to the point where they were a top prospect, Greg Oden and Cousins. That's it! We have 3 now in the last 2 years, 1 in Okafor who is most likely a sure thing, and 2 possibly in Embiid and KAT.

I'm not sure where I would handicap it, but there is validity to both sides of the argument. I'll also add Griffin, Kanter, Robinson too. Not the greatest list, I know.

 

[User 15002]

Mid post.

Especially later in his career.

He literally put the mid post on the map and his face up jumper is legendary.

That is what I think Towns can be. He has a great looking shot. Cal doesn't let him stray from the paint too much so we don't see it.

 

[durantula]

To be fair, spacing has been the most valuable commodity in the NBA since about 2011.

It has 100%. Especially when near 100% of the top players in the NBA are perimeter players or extremely athletic PF's.

What I'm trying to get across is that the guys who could be a top player in the NBA who excel in "back to the basket" basketball aren't being phased out, they just simply don't come around anywhere near the rate that they used to. Since 2007, there have been only 2 bigs who have dominated to the point where they were a top prospect, Greg Oden and Cousins. That's it! We have 3 now in the last 2 years, 1 in Okafor who is most likely a sure thing, and 2 possibly in Embiid and KAT.

I'm not sure where I would handicap it, but there is validity to both sides of the argument. I'll also add Griffin, Kanter, Robinson too. Not the greatest list, I know.

My bad I meant traditional "back to basket" type bigs, shouldve specified lol. Both griffin and robinson were athletic monsters and Idk how kenter was seen coming out because he never played in college lol

 

[pmatic]

RHJ:

Hollis-Jefferson needs a jump shot

To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

WARP projection: 0.7 (52nd among players in top 100)
Comparables: Devin Ebanks (96., Julian Wright (95.1), Marcus E. Williams (94.4), DeMar DeRozan (94.2)
Strengths: FTA%, Rebound%, TO%
Weaknesses: Usage, Shooting, PF%

The analytics perspective

View media item 1474142
Because he made just eight 3-pointers in two seasons at Arizona, Hollis-Jefferson has one of the lowest shooting scores (which combines 3P%, 3PA/Min and FT%) among the wing players in my college database.

That list illustrates the task in front of Hollis-Jefferson. If he can learn to shoot, he has the ability to develop into a valuable 3-and-D player like Ariza or Carroll.

If not, he'll have to be an elite defender just to stick in the league, as Ebanks (whose .794 shooting rating was marginally better) and Wright were unable to do.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

Hollis-Jefferson was a great high school player and was a very good college player at Arizona. Now, the question is: Can he become a good NBA player at the small forward position? At 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds, Hollis-Jefferson has the size of an NBA wing player.

But the issue is that he played during his Wildcats career like a power forward. This season, he made 67 percent of his baskets at the rim. And he attempted 200 free throws. At times, his strength and athleticism overpowered opponents.

Unfortunately, in the NBA, he is unlikely to be as effective in the paint as he was in college. Hollis-Jefferson made just 33 percent of his 2-point jump shots and just 6 of his 31 attempts behind the arc. That becomes problematic because when NBA opponents can play off one perimeter offensive player, it "shrinks the floor" in defending the opponent's best players. It is an issue that NBA teams will weigh heavily.

Hollis-Jefferson's ballhandling is good but not elite. While he is an effective straight-line driver, he is not elusive enough with his dribble to play in isolation situations. Hollis-Jefferson's strengths are on the defensive end. Because of his above-average athleticism, 7-foot wingspan and over-the-top intensity, he has a chance to be a very good NBA wing defensive stopper. He's the same size as former Kentucky star and current Hornets small forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who would be a good role model for him.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front-office perspective

Hollis-Jefferson was a top-rated prospect out of high school and has been on NBA radar screens since going to Arizona. When Brandon Ashley went down last season and Hollis-Jefferson took over a big role on the offense, his strong play raised his draft stock into the mid-first round. Hollis-Jefferson decided to stay another year at Arizona, hoping to move his stock into the lottery.

Alas, like a number of heralded freshmen, he saw his draft stock slide this season. While he's produced slight upticks in points per game, rebounds per game, steals per game and shooting percentage, they weren't dramatic. His lack of improvement on his 3-point shot was the biggest source of his stock slide.

Still, Hollis-Jefferson has value in the NBA. He's an elite defender who can guard multiple positions on the floor. He's also an excellent athlete who finishes above the rim. He's also an unselfish leader who is willing to do the dirty work that so many coaches love. If he ever develops a passable jump shot, he has star potential in the NBA. His draft range is 18 to 25 right now, but he might be undervalued.

-- Chad Ford

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...ondae-hollis-jefferson-draft-stock-pro-future