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Poll Results: How Many Games Do You Project The Lakers Will Win This Season?

 
  • 8% (4)
    15-20
  • 8% (4)
    21-25
  • 31% (14)
    26-30
  • 17% (8)
    31-35
  • 6% (3)
    36-40
  • 4% (2)
    41-45
  • 0% (0)
    46-50
  • 0% (0)
    51-55
  • 0% (0)
    56-73
  • 22% (10)
    They Will Break the NBA Record with 74+ Wins
45 Total Votes  
post #9091 of 21988
Kidd & Marion

Then said dump Kobe or he leaves in 2004.
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post #9092 of 21988
Thread Starter 
LAKERS - CHARGERS
COLE WORLD
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COLE WORLD
post #9093 of 21988
Today is D'Angelo's 20th Birthday.

*Plays How Does It Feel*
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post #9094 of 21988
Highly interested in how Whiteside plays against the Warriors tonight.
post #9095 of 21988
thrown out in the 3rd laugh.gif
An army of sheep led by a lion is better than an army of lions led by a sheep.
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post #9096 of 21988
Good read on Simmons vs. Ingram
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)

Is Ben Simmons still the No. 1 pick?


Chad Ford: We're nearing the end of the college basketball season. LSU's Ben Simmons has sat atop the Big Board since I published the first one in July. Eight months later, he still looks like the favorite among NBA scouts and executives to be the No. 1 pick.
But he does have competition. Duke's Brandon Ingram has been improving all season, and his combination of elite size and scoring ability at small forward is highly attractive to NBA teams. Factor in Simmons' shooting woes and LSU's struggles to make the NCAA tournament and we might have a legit two-man race for the No. 1 pick.
What do the stats say, Kevin? How close are these two in your projections?

Kevin Pelton: There was a stretch of a few weeks where Ingram had the better WARP projection, before the recent shooting slump that has seen him make just 34.0 percent of his 2-point attempts in February.
However, that's largely because of the nature of my projection system. As we've discussed in the past, it's designed to adjust for fluky, outlier performance that won't likely continue in the NBA.

Because that's tied to positional averages, my projections don't believe anyone can truly be as good at both rebounding and playmaking as Simmons has been this season. As he continues to prove his performance is no fluke, Simmons' projection will improve with the same level of play.
When we look at unadjusted stats on Sports-Reference.com, the difference between Simmons and Ingram in terms of production becomes much wider. Simmons has the sixth-best score among freshmen in box plus-minus (a form of statistical plus-minus akin to what helps inform ESPN's real plus-minus) in the Sports-Reference.com database back through 2010-11, behind Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Cody Zeller. By contrast, Ingram's BPM ranks 51st among freshmen over that span -- very good, certainly, but not elite.
Whose skills are more unique: Ingram's or Simmons'?

Pelton: Are there reasons scouts believe that Ingram can close that gap in the NBA?

Ford: I think in January, when Ingram was shooting the ball at a much higher clip, the thinking was this: The way the league is evolving, Ingram's shooting ability at his size might trump Simmons' passing and rebounding skills.
In a league where the Warriors are flirting with the best record ever, having an elite shooter, especially a 6-foot-10 one like Ingram, is a rare and valuable commodity. However, I think they might be underestimating just how gifted Simmons really is. Ingram projects as a good shooter. Simmons projects as an elite rebounder and passer.
Can we estimate the relative worth of these skills in a forward?
Pelton: That's tough because there's not really a big sample to draw from in terms of elite rebounding and passing, is there?
Before applying the regression factor, Simmons' LSU stats translate to an NBA equivalent of a rebound rate near 15 percent and an assist rate near six per 100 plays. There's precisely one NBA player who can meet both of those standards this season: Joakim Noah. Draymond Green (14.5 percent rebound rate) and Blake Griffin (13.5 percent) are close.
This is sort of making the argument for Simmons, right?
I think one factor that works in Simmons' favor is the growing value the NBA puts on passing out of big men, with Green as a primary example. The playmaking 4, as popularized by ESPN's Zach Lowe, has become nearly as important as the stretch 4.
To me, the biggest opportunity for offenses in the game today is when a guard gets trapped on the pick-and-roll and throws to the screener, who then has to make a play with a man advantage (there are four offensive players involved and just three defenders). When executed properly, this tends to lead to dunks and wide-open corner 3s.
Nobody is better at this than Green. Well, guess who Simmons' best comparison is via SCHOENE? Draymond Green, and nobody else is particularly close.
Who are comparisons for Ingram and Simmons?

Pelton: I know they have very different body types and motors, but have you heard anyone else draw the Green comparison?

Ford: Yes. And I believe this is why the overwhelming majority of NBA folks think Simmons will be the No. 1 pick. What if Green were 6-foot-10 and athletic? Players that perform like Simmons rarely have his size and athletic abilities.
That said, how much will his lack of shooting affect Simmons' ceiling in the NBA? Green was a career 36 percent 3-point shooter in college and has shot 34 percent in the NBA. Simmons won't even take midrange jumpers right now. Would Green be as effective if he lacked a serviceable jumper?
And if a bigger, more athletic Draymond Green is the best current comp for Simmons, what about Ingram? Rick Pitino compared Ingram to Kevin Durant last week (before Louisville held him to three baskets and forced 10 turnovers from Ingram). That's seems overly optimistic, though.
Last time we discussed Ingram, I felt like Paul George was a better comp. I still like that one. You were leaning toward Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Where do you see him now?
Pelton: Well, I think Blake Griffin is an interesting example in that regard. He was an even worse free throw shooter than Simmons in college and early in his NBA career before developing into a solid midrange shooter, albeit not a 3-point threat.
Griffin's shooting isn't really an issue when the ball is in his hands, but we've seen the last couple of years how much better Chris Paul-DeAndre Jordan pick-and-rolls work with a spacer at power forward rather than Griffin.
As Griffin's example shows, shooting is not a fixed thing. The same is true of Green, who made two 3-pointers in 17 attempts his first two seasons at Michigan State before making 89 as an upperclassmen. A lot of Simmons' future will be tied to how much he can develop as a shooter.
That same question also applies to Ingram, despite his success beyond the arc. He looms as one of the most interesting test cases yet for my research finding that college free throw percentage predicts NBA 3-point percentage as well as college 3-point percentage.
As good a 3-point shooter as he has been (40.8 percent), Ingram has only been marginally better at the foul line than Simmons (67.5 percent to 67.2 percent). Ingram's attempted more 3s than free throws, so this isn't exactly Justise Winslow hitting 41.8 percent of 3s in a smaller sample (110 attempts) last year at Duke. Still, 3-point percentage tends to be volatile over hundreds of attempts and Ingram may just be riding a hot streak beyond the arc.
Ingram's statistical similarity to George has declined as the season has gone on, and I do think the 3-point ability he has shown distinguishes him from Antetokounmpo.
Intriguingly, SCHOENE now favors another Milwaukee wing: Khris Middleton. Ingram is much bigger than Middleton, but I remember how much Middleton reminded me of Durant when I first saw him play in college. And a "rich man's Middleton" is probably fairer to Ingram as a comparison than players as good as Durant and George.
Can Ingram still pass Simmons?

Pelton: Let's wrap up by posing this question: What could Ingram do the rest of the season to jump Simmons on draft boards?

Ford: It will be interesting. LSU is unlikely to play in the NCAA tournament unless they win the SEC tourney. In other words, Simmons' run is almost over, and it's shown.
His lackluster game on Saturday drew a ton of criticism. Some are raising questions about his competitiveness and the poor performance of his team. But the large majority of NBA folks I speak with think that's nonsense.
He had poor body language in a game where he was taken out of the starting lineup for academic reasons. It happens. Overall, scouts rate his character very highly. It's a selling point, not a detraction, for those who have done their homework.
Nevertheless, it creates an opening for Ingram. If he gets hot in the NCAA tournament -- especially if he starts hitting 3s and Duke can return to the Final Four -- the drumbeat for Ingram to go No. 1 will be loud.
While scouts swear the tournament doesn't really affect their scouting reports, there is plenty of evidence to say that it does. We always underestimate the power of psychology in the draft.
I know you won't be swayed by any of that, Kevin. Your model doesn't weigh the tournament any differently than the rest of the season. So, from an analytics standpoint, is Simmons the clear No. 1 regardless of how the next few weeks play out? Or is this a real two-man horse race for the No. 1 pick?
Pelton: I don't know about the clear No. 1. As I said when we started, their NBA projections aren't that different because of the regression factor.
Still, the challenge for Ingram from a statistical standpoint is that his strongest current skill -- 3-point shooting -- is also the one that's most likely to regress. We don't often see players have a "hot streak" in terms of rebounds, steals and blocks, but those are the skills where Ingram really has room to improve his projection.
So I'd be surprised if Ingram ends up surpassing Simmons in my projections.
post #9097 of 21988
Good stuff.

Just get 1 or 2, I don't really even care which one it is. Just add another blue chipper and I'm cool.

If we land #3, it'll hurt, but it's still better than handing it over to the 76ers. We'll make it work.

If it's #4, ****
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post #9098 of 21988
Right now its a 2 man race, hopefully in the NCAA Tournament some player makes a name for himself to make that number 3 pick (If we get it) much more appealing, and at that point i'm sure we can pick that player or entertain offers for the number 3.

I'm hoping we get 1 obviously, I don't know who to pick, but that's a good problem to have.
post #9099 of 21988
I'm not a big fan of him/them, but, they could certainly represent a change, and adjustment of the current culture.....

IF

We land Ingram at 2

Bring on Thibbs

And sign Whiteside and Batum.....

Whiteside/Black/Upshaw???
Randle/Nance
Batum/Ingram/Brown
Clarkson/Lou
DLo/#32 (GP2?)

There's some defensive talent on the roster, on top of a defensive teacher. Still youth and upside, Whiteside and Batum will both be 27 when the season begins. Lou will be the old guy at 30, and I'd be fine with moving him, but if not, I can handle him for a year or so. (trade bait for later)

IF, we kept Lou, we could also use #32 elsewhere. Cuz DLo/Clarkson/Lou can all swing between the 1 and the 2, and Brown/Batum could swing to SG if needed. So 32 could be another big, if need be. (or if Upshaw is still not ready - likely)


I prefer Horford, but, if Thibs came, Whiteside might be a better fit, younger, less wear and tear, etc. My fear would be, who on the court keeps him right? Lou/Batum would be the "vets" and he isn't liable to listen to either of them. That worries me a little, but......I could be sold on him. We need 2-3 bodies to help change things, and preferably, defenders. Thibs/Ingram/Batum/Whiteside in one offseason could be a solid infusion of defense.

I like Batum no matter what, with Horford, with Whiteside, or with DeRozan, whoever, I like Batum's fit here no matter what. He could also help Ingram over the next year or two, then slide over as Ingram starts to impose his will.

We'll see.
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post #9100 of 21988
If it's anything other than 1 or 2, trade the pick. The talent dropoff is really that bad. You gotta think Philly is going to try and break up this big man monopoly they have, Noel would be ideal.
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post #9101 of 21988
If it's 3. I'd trade back for Buddy Hield. Assuming he stays 2nd half of the lottery. Which seems likely because he's a senior.

He probably should be # 3, but because he's 22, it drops him a lot.

Still think when the lottery happens, we'll be 4th
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post #9102 of 21988
Quote:
I prefer Horford, but, if Thibs came, Whiteside might be a better fit, younger, less wear and tear, etc. My fear would be, who on the court keeps him right? Lou/Batum would be the "vets" and he isn't liable to listen to either of them. That worries me a little, but......I could be sold on him. We need 2-3 bodies to help change things, and preferably, defenders. Thibs/Ingram/Batum/Whiteside in one offseason could be a solid infusion of defense.

Artest as an assistant maybe?
post #9103 of 21988
I believe we've already guaranteed MWP a job with the team in some capacity after the season.
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post #9104 of 21988
before the lottery, pick, swaggy and randle for boogie nerd.gif do it mitch nerd.gif

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superbowl 31, 32, 50 champions

 

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post #9105 of 21988
Quote:
Originally Posted by franc View Post

before the lottery, pick, swaggy and randle for boogie nerd.gif do it mitch nerd.gif

I like this.
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post #9106 of 21988
Umm don't think you can trade a pick that you don't yet have. It would have to be after the lottery and probably the draft as well and the 1st week of FA to get more salary.
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post #9107 of 21988
Hoping we don't land Whiteside, young and talented as hell but he's not right in the head. Pat Riley runs a tight ship in South Beach and the Heat are a veteran team with HoF leaders and this dude stays testing their patience every other day. If he's like this right now, can't imagine how he'd be under a new coach, a weaker FO, young and impressionable teammates, and a fat contract. Bynum was a young and talented malcontent too but we had a roster that could absorb his shenanigans. Phil, Kobe, Fish, Pau, and LO to an extent, not to mention Jerry Buss was still on hand up until 2011-12. We all saw yobo Bynum with Mike Brown. No need to even talk about Philly. I can see the appeal but I just can't trust him on a deal that pretty much makes him an Alpha on a squad full of pups.
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post #9108 of 21988
Quote:
Originally Posted by Essential1 View Post

If it's 3. I'd trade back for Buddy Hield. Assuming he stays 2nd half of the lottery. Which seems likely because he's a senior.

He probably should be # 3, but because he's 22, it drops him a lot.

Still think when the lottery happens, we'll be 4th

We don't see eye to eye very often but I actually like this a lot.

Even if someone reaches and gets Hield before us we can take a guy like Denzel who will come it and be NBA ready right away.
An army of sheep led by a lion is better than an army of lions led by a sheep.
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post #9109 of 21988
Quote:
Originally Posted by leemelone View Post

Quote:
I prefer Horford, but, if Thibs came, Whiteside might be a better fit, younger, less wear and tear, etc. My fear would be, who on the court keeps him right? Lou/Batum would be the "vets" and he isn't liable to listen to either of them. That worries me a little, but......I could be sold on him. We need 2-3 bodies to help change things, and preferably, defenders. Thibs/Ingram/Batum/Whiteside in one offseason could be a solid infusion of defense.

Artest as an assistant maybe?

I know there's been a lot of improvement over time, but still, to think, Ron Artest, Mentor......... laugh.gif

Yes, I could see it, but no, I wouldn't reaaaallllly want to see it.

It would just be so much easier with Horford, but if we can't get him, and Whiteside is willing to sign here, then I guess I can live with it, and hope Ron (or whoever else) can keep him straight.

I probably wouldn't sleep very well, but I'll live.
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post #9110 of 21988
Quote:
Originally Posted by cleansneaksonly21 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Essential1 View Post

If it's 3. I'd trade back for Buddy Hield. Assuming he stays 2nd half of the lottery. Which seems likely because he's a senior.

He probably should be # 3, but because he's 22, it drops him a lot.

Still think when the lottery happens, we'll be 4th

We don't see eye to eye very often but I actually like this a lot.

Even if someone reaches and gets Hield before us we can take a guy like Denzel who will come it and be NBA ready right away.

We don't see eye to eye often? That disappoints me.

Denzel is another guy I like. My issue with him is that while he does sooooo much well on offense. He's bad defensively. But he's definitely a guy I think that makes an immediate impact first year.
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post #9111 of 21988
Well damn Whiteside.
post #9112 of 21988
Quote:
Originally Posted by PMatic View Post

Well damn Whiteside.

Meh we should pass...









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post #9113 of 21988
This is just unwatchable. 15-4 and there is stil 8:30 seconds left in the first quarter.

This starting 5 can't guard ANYBODY.

Obviously Kobes old self isn't helping. But neither are the young fellas who just get blown by or get stuck on a pick every time.

Just frustrating. Can't wait until the offseason.
post #9114 of 21988
welp.

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post #9115 of 21988
Russell playing well tonight.

Pushing the pace. And able to downshift gears really quickly.
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post #9116 of 21988
Randle's tunnel vision. mean.gif

He had Clarkson wide open.
post #9117 of 21988
DLo pimp.gif
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post #9118 of 21988
Some of y'all condoning trading this dude sick.gifmean.gif

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post #9119 of 21988
Double double Randle

Clarkson 28-6 with 6 3's.

DLo 22-8

And another L. pimp.gif


Just keep workin young fellas.
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post #9120 of 21988
Exclusively defensive minded players and coach this offseason.
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