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2024 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
- Start date
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If Sharpe receiving word he already locked into the top 10 then it would be no reason to play at this point if I was him…But this ain’t a surprise tho, I thought this info came out months ago that he was gon chill at UK for a while and enter the draft
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It’s official 
this draft now has a great top 5
this draft now has a great top 5
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It’s though right - if you love the game you wanna get out there ASAP - hope he’s insured regardless
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Last edited:
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Why Auburn's Jabari Smith might be the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft, and who might select him
The debate surrounding who will become the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft is growing louder -- and the pool of potential candidates is growing deeper. Since the day the 2021-22 college basketball season tipped off on Nov. 9, much of the conversation has been centered around Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren and Duke's Paolo Banchero, talk that only intensified when the duo performed well in a head-to-head meeting in Las Vegas on Nov. 26.
But a third talented freshman prospect has entered the chat, and it's 6-foot-10, 220-pound power forward Jabari Smith of Auburn, who has powered the Tigers to the No. 1 overall seed in Joe Lunardi's latest NCAA tournament Bracketology projection, and whose popularity among NBA talent evaluators has increased since the start of the season. What are the skills that have allowed Smith (15.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG entering Saturday's meeting with No. 12 Kentucky) to become a candidate for the No. 1 pick? Which potential NBA lottery teams might be in the market for a player of Smith's distinctive skill set? Who is Smith's comp at the next level, what's his ceiling and what's his floor? NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz considered all of these questions ahead of Saturday's matchup:
What are Jabari Smith's chances of becoming the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft? How realistic is that prospect? What are NBA people saying about that?
Smith has a very good chance of being the No. 1 pick based on what he has shown so far and especially the platform he'll have as the season moves on. He is the best player on arguably the best team in college basketball, playing in an SEC loaded with NBA prospects and Top 25-caliber teams, which should provide him ample opportunity to solidify him position at the top of the draft.
NBA teams sound absolutely enamored with his talent, with several high-level executives telling us in recent weeks that he has moved to the top of their draft boards. He'll have plenty more opportunities to convince those who haven't yet taken the plunge, with remaining games against Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and others, along with the SEC and NCAA tournaments.
Some of his No. 1 chances will also depend on how his formidable competitors -- Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero -- play over the next two-plus months, as well as who is drafting at the top. The gap between the players is small, if not nonexistent, with different NBA teams placing any of the three at the top, or ranked third, and opinions shifting as the year has progressed and based on whatever performance executives took in last.
While on paper you could make the case that Smith, Holmgren and Banchero are all power forward prospects, in reality, they play very different roles, have sharply contrasting strengths and weaknesses, and won't be equally appealing to the same teams given existing rosters and what teams value in terms of style of play. That means how the pingpong balls fall in the NBA draft lottery in mid-May will have a significant influence on how things evolve.
Holmgren in particular is not the easiest scout for teams, executives say, as he's tucked away in the fairly weak WCC and is not a featured option on an experienced team led by a national player of the year candidate, fellow big man and team cornerstone Drew Timme. After a good but not great showing in Gonzaga's out-of-conference schedule, including pedestrian games against Texas and Texas Tech, Holmgren will need to show up in a major way in the NCAA tournament to alleviate concerns about his frail frame, perceived lack of alpha-style mentality offensively, and the fact that he's a full year older than Smith, in order to bolster his case as the No. 1 pick.
Playing in an uncharacteristically weak ACC, which is currently projected to receive just one more at-large bid than the WCC, Banchero will be similarly scrutinized closely in the NCAA tournament for his defense, rebounding and ability to play winning basketball on both ends of the floor.
In short, there's a lot left to play for still and you could make a credible case for any of those three at the top. -- Jonathan Givony
What makes Smith so intriguing to NBA teams?
Smith has two foundational pillars that set him apart from the rest of the prospects in the top three: He's an elite shooter, and he has the footwork to be a multipositional one-on-one defender. Not a bad start in an NBA that values 3s and defensive versatility more than ever.
There's an argument to be made that Smith is actually the most well-rounded shooter in this draft. At just 18 years old, he's one of only three players in our top 100 shooting over 43% from 3 on at least five attempts per game. He's the only player in the entire NCAA with those marks who stands 6-10 or taller. In fact, no other player over the past 20 years, according to the extensive DraftExpress database, has shot it at that clip, with that volume, at that height. If you lower the height filter to at least 6-8, snipers like Doug McDermott, Kyle Korver, Cam Johnson and Duncan Robinson pop up. So is it time to start considering Smith that caliber of shooter? As you can see by the Synergy Sports shot chart below, he's different stylistically in terms of where and how he gets his shots, but the answer is yes.
Smith is already automatic on one of the NBA's most important shots: the corner 3. Small sample, but he's currently 7-for-14 from the corners, with a relatively quick release and simple mechanics without many moving parts. That, combined with the fact that he can defend point guards to power forwards, will allow him to play as a jumbo wing in the NBA.
For a better look at his stellar footwork, balance and perimeter defense, check out the highlight below. Defensive stats are tricky, but opponents have scored just 6 points on 18 isolation possessions against Smith this season.
In addition to the corners, Smith can also pick and pop above the break, where he's 32-for-76 (42%), including over 50% from the left wing. So, "6-10, 3-and-D forward" is his absolute floor. Then add in the fact that he can make pull-up 3s from NBA range, create space with step-backs in either direction, rise up in midrange areas, and knock down turnarounds over either shoulder, and you're talking about the ceiling of a potential No. 1 scoring option.
As Jonathan outlined, Smith isn't exactly going to break his man down off the bounce to power his way to the paint for poster dunks. But he's more than comfortable pushing the ball himself in transition, pulling up from 28 feet with ease, and converting the type of difficult pull-ups you see from NBA stars (he's made 19 off-the-dribble jumpers in 18 games). With all that in mind, there's an argument to be made that Smith has both the highest floor and the highest ceiling in the draft. -- Mike Schmitz
Which teams that we expect to see in the 2022 lottery could most benefit from Smith's skills, and what will his impact be at the next level in Year 1?
Which teams likely drafting in the top 5 could benefit from a confident, 6-10 sharpshooter who can knock down jumpers from everywhere while defending his position? The short answer is all of them, but I'm enamored with two potential landing spots: Detroit and Oklahoma City.
Smith is exactly what Cade Cunningham is yearning for in a second star. According to NBA.com, the Pistons rank third in the NBA in percentage of 3-pointers that are assisted, meaning they have people to create open 3s, they just don't have anyone who can make them -- they're tied (with the Thunder) for last place in 3-point percentage. Smith's shooting would give Cunningham the pick-and-pop threat he's missing, especially with Jerami Grant potentially on the way out, while allowing Cunningham to take a back seat as an off-ball threat on Smith midpost isolations.
Smith could also be the third star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey need in OKC, which would benefit all parties involved as the Thunder are thin up front and short on floor spacers. Because he's not a great passer at this stage of his career, playing alongside gifted playmakers like Giddey and Gilgeous-Alexander (and Cunningham, for that matter) would be ideal for the Auburn forward, allowing him to ease into the NBA without too much pressure to create all the offense.
How quickly will Smith have an impact? He'll stay on the floor because of the shooting and the fact that he's at least physically capable of defending on the perimeter at 6-10, 220 with a 7-1 wingspan. As Jonathan outlined, he's already the best player on arguably the best team in the country at 18, which suggests he'll be ready to contribute from day one.
With that said, he's not the most naturally physical like Banchero, who could ultimately be the favorite to win Rookie of the Year depending on where he lands. The game does move a bit too fast for Smith on both ends and he's not overly long or strong, so I wouldn't expect him to be an All-Star in Year 1 or impact the game in every facet like an Evan Mobley has. But he'll surely be one of the top scorers among rookies thanks to that versatile shooting stroke at 6-10, with the defensive chops and competitiveness to earn the trust of his head coach. -- Mike Schmitz
What are the concerns NBA teams have and what will evaluators be watching most closely the next two months-plus?
Smith doesn't turn 19 until mid-May, so it shouldn't be surprising to anyone that he lacks strength and has struggled playing through physicality at times on both ends of the floor. He ranks last among college big men in our top 100 in rebounding percentage, rebounding similarly to guard prospects such as Johnny Davis. Smith's numbers look even worse in games against high-major competition. He often stands and watches loose balls carom off the glass, rarely putting a body on opponents as shots go up, and has had similar issues in pick-and-roll coverages, being a step slow with his reaction time and not fighting through screens effectively.
For as skilled and exciting a prospect as he is offensively, Smith has also struggled generating efficient offense for himself and others, especially inside the arc where he has shot just 48%. Smith lacks a degree of strength and explosiveness as a finisher around the basket, ranking 333rd in the country in made dunks this season, per Bart Torvik, and is too reliant on the type of contested 2-point jumpers that even high-level NBA players struggle to convert at a high rate. On the season, Smith is hitting just 38% of his non-layup/dunk attempts, per Torvik, with those shots consisting of 70% of his 2-point attempts. His assist-to-turnover ratio has been poor against quality competition as well. As the season moves on, scouts will want to see Smith's game slow down for him, better decision-making as a passer and perhaps a toning down of his at-times overly ambitious shot selection, of which he seemingly makes just enough to convince him to continue to take an extremely high degree of difficult attempts.
For a prospect of Smith's caliber, these are more nitpicks than fatal flaws, as many of his issues will be solved by adding strength, experience and polish as his career moves on. The fact that he's highly competitive, exceptionally skilled, as well as young and reportedly highly coachable, makes it easy to see him improving rapidly over the next few years. It will be interesting to see how Smith handles the length and physicality of Kentucky on Saturday, as that's exactly the type of long-armed, experienced frontcourt NBA teams will use to evaluate where Smith stands at this stage of his development. -- Jonathan Givony
Who is Smith's comp in the NBA? What is his ceiling / floor in terms of what type of player(s) Smith can become?
I think it's important to get a little more nuanced with comparisons than usual, especially when we're talking about potential No. 1 picks like Smith. So, let's use multiple players to break down elements of Smith's game and then come back for some big-picture projections.
In terms of his shot profile, Smith has some Michael Porter Jr. in his game -- a shot-making forward who can play the 3 or 4 and gets a lot of his offense by way of elevating over top of smaller opponents for jump shots (almost 70% of his attempts right now). Like Porter, Smith can shoot the ball on the move, potentially even off screens down the road because of his high release and comfort making shots from all angles, rarely needing perfect balance. Similar to MPJ's play alongside Nikola Jokic, Smith would thrive next to a center who can handle and pass, activating the 18-year-old's movement shooting out of handoffs and big-to-big combination screens.
Smith isn't as bouncy as a healthy Porter is, and the Nuggets forward is a little bit more wing-like than the Auburn star, playing 74% of his minutes at the 3 last season. As Smith told us in the Bahamas, power forward will likely be his most used and advantageous position in the NBA. With that said, Porter faced similar questions about his ability to get by his defender in the NBA and handle contact, as he played the very upright style we see from Smith as well. Both guys live off tough shots yet are more than capable because of their size and touch.
With his big hands and a high release, there are also glimpses of a 6-10 Kawhi Leonard in Smith's midpost game, one that features left- and right-shoulder turnarounds, step-backs, and even rip-throughs to draw fouls. They have some stylistic similarities with their approach out of triple-threat situations, in their footwork on midrange pull-ups, and the somewhat flat trajectory of their shots. You see shades of Jayson Tatum in the midpost as well. Smith's stats aren't too far off from Tatum's freshman year stats at Duke, and both are highly skilled with great midrange games and the ability to make highly contested shots. Smith isn't as smooth with the ball as Tatum was at that stage, but the two forwards thrive off isolation buckets. On the flip side, Smith isn't the rugged, physical rebounder or downhill driver that Leonard was in college, even if he's 3 inches taller and far more advanced on offense at the same stage. He doesn't quite project as the same level of stopper that Leonard became.
As far as defense is concerned, Smith is a much better defender than Porter and Tatum. On the defensive end, Smith has Jonathan Isaac-like feet guarding the perimeter. Like the 6-11 Isaac, he plays with great activity and energy on the perimeter, showing the ability to slide with point guards, check wings and even play some small-ball 5 in a pinch. When healthy, Isaac is the superior rim protector, a more engaged off-ball defender and a more ambitious rebounder than Smith. But you can expect that type of sit-and-slide defense and switch ability from Smith.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is another name you hear often linked to Smith. The comparison has some merit as both are tall, floor-spacing forwards who can guard on the perimeter, yet leave much to be desired in the rebounding and passing departments. Jackson, however, is considerably longer (7-5 wingspan), with a far bigger frame and real rim-protection chops (5.5 blocks per 40 minutes at Michigan State), which is an area Smith struggles at right now, giving up too many shots at the rim and not quite having the frame or length to play as much 5 as Jackson.
Another name that merits comparison to Smith is Pascal Siakam, though at 18 Siakam was still searching for a prep school and had a much different path, having to make it as a defender first then evolve his offensive skill. Smith is a better shooter now than Siakam ever was and will be. But in terms of a scoring forward who can get his own shot, push in transition and defend the perimeter, there are some similarities. A taller De'Andre Hunter is a "worst case" comparison that could be made as well, given his stout on-ball defense and shooting.
So what does all that mean? Is Smith a more durable, better defending, less bouncy Michael Porter Jr.? Is he a less physical, taller, more naturally skilled Kawhi Leonard? Is he a less polished, power forward version of Jayson Tatum? Is he a 4/3 version of Jaren Jackson Jr.? Is he prime Siakam with a better jumper? He has elements of all those players, which is certainly a good sign for the Auburn forward. I see his floor as an immediate NBA starter who makes one or two All-Star Games during his career. As for his ceiling? An All-Star by Year 3 and eventual All-NBA player with the type of game that will allow him to play with other stars and eventually compete for championships. -- Mike Schmitz
The debate surrounding who will become the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft is growing louder -- and the pool of potential candidates is growing deeper. Since the day the 2021-22 college basketball season tipped off on Nov. 9, much of the conversation has been centered around Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren and Duke's Paolo Banchero, talk that only intensified when the duo performed well in a head-to-head meeting in Las Vegas on Nov. 26.
But a third talented freshman prospect has entered the chat, and it's 6-foot-10, 220-pound power forward Jabari Smith of Auburn, who has powered the Tigers to the No. 1 overall seed in Joe Lunardi's latest NCAA tournament Bracketology projection, and whose popularity among NBA talent evaluators has increased since the start of the season. What are the skills that have allowed Smith (15.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG entering Saturday's meeting with No. 12 Kentucky) to become a candidate for the No. 1 pick? Which potential NBA lottery teams might be in the market for a player of Smith's distinctive skill set? Who is Smith's comp at the next level, what's his ceiling and what's his floor? NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz considered all of these questions ahead of Saturday's matchup:
What are Jabari Smith's chances of becoming the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft? How realistic is that prospect? What are NBA people saying about that?
Smith has a very good chance of being the No. 1 pick based on what he has shown so far and especially the platform he'll have as the season moves on. He is the best player on arguably the best team in college basketball, playing in an SEC loaded with NBA prospects and Top 25-caliber teams, which should provide him ample opportunity to solidify him position at the top of the draft.
NBA teams sound absolutely enamored with his talent, with several high-level executives telling us in recent weeks that he has moved to the top of their draft boards. He'll have plenty more opportunities to convince those who haven't yet taken the plunge, with remaining games against Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and others, along with the SEC and NCAA tournaments.
Some of his No. 1 chances will also depend on how his formidable competitors -- Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero -- play over the next two-plus months, as well as who is drafting at the top. The gap between the players is small, if not nonexistent, with different NBA teams placing any of the three at the top, or ranked third, and opinions shifting as the year has progressed and based on whatever performance executives took in last.
While on paper you could make the case that Smith, Holmgren and Banchero are all power forward prospects, in reality, they play very different roles, have sharply contrasting strengths and weaknesses, and won't be equally appealing to the same teams given existing rosters and what teams value in terms of style of play. That means how the pingpong balls fall in the NBA draft lottery in mid-May will have a significant influence on how things evolve.
Holmgren in particular is not the easiest scout for teams, executives say, as he's tucked away in the fairly weak WCC and is not a featured option on an experienced team led by a national player of the year candidate, fellow big man and team cornerstone Drew Timme. After a good but not great showing in Gonzaga's out-of-conference schedule, including pedestrian games against Texas and Texas Tech, Holmgren will need to show up in a major way in the NCAA tournament to alleviate concerns about his frail frame, perceived lack of alpha-style mentality offensively, and the fact that he's a full year older than Smith, in order to bolster his case as the No. 1 pick.
Playing in an uncharacteristically weak ACC, which is currently projected to receive just one more at-large bid than the WCC, Banchero will be similarly scrutinized closely in the NCAA tournament for his defense, rebounding and ability to play winning basketball on both ends of the floor.
In short, there's a lot left to play for still and you could make a credible case for any of those three at the top. -- Jonathan Givony
What makes Smith so intriguing to NBA teams?
Smith has two foundational pillars that set him apart from the rest of the prospects in the top three: He's an elite shooter, and he has the footwork to be a multipositional one-on-one defender. Not a bad start in an NBA that values 3s and defensive versatility more than ever.
There's an argument to be made that Smith is actually the most well-rounded shooter in this draft. At just 18 years old, he's one of only three players in our top 100 shooting over 43% from 3 on at least five attempts per game. He's the only player in the entire NCAA with those marks who stands 6-10 or taller. In fact, no other player over the past 20 years, according to the extensive DraftExpress database, has shot it at that clip, with that volume, at that height. If you lower the height filter to at least 6-8, snipers like Doug McDermott, Kyle Korver, Cam Johnson and Duncan Robinson pop up. So is it time to start considering Smith that caliber of shooter? As you can see by the Synergy Sports shot chart below, he's different stylistically in terms of where and how he gets his shots, but the answer is yes.
Smith is already automatic on one of the NBA's most important shots: the corner 3. Small sample, but he's currently 7-for-14 from the corners, with a relatively quick release and simple mechanics without many moving parts. That, combined with the fact that he can defend point guards to power forwards, will allow him to play as a jumbo wing in the NBA.
For a better look at his stellar footwork, balance and perimeter defense, check out the highlight below. Defensive stats are tricky, but opponents have scored just 6 points on 18 isolation possessions against Smith this season.
In addition to the corners, Smith can also pick and pop above the break, where he's 32-for-76 (42%), including over 50% from the left wing. So, "6-10, 3-and-D forward" is his absolute floor. Then add in the fact that he can make pull-up 3s from NBA range, create space with step-backs in either direction, rise up in midrange areas, and knock down turnarounds over either shoulder, and you're talking about the ceiling of a potential No. 1 scoring option.
As Jonathan outlined, Smith isn't exactly going to break his man down off the bounce to power his way to the paint for poster dunks. But he's more than comfortable pushing the ball himself in transition, pulling up from 28 feet with ease, and converting the type of difficult pull-ups you see from NBA stars (he's made 19 off-the-dribble jumpers in 18 games). With all that in mind, there's an argument to be made that Smith has both the highest floor and the highest ceiling in the draft. -- Mike Schmitz
Which teams that we expect to see in the 2022 lottery could most benefit from Smith's skills, and what will his impact be at the next level in Year 1?
Which teams likely drafting in the top 5 could benefit from a confident, 6-10 sharpshooter who can knock down jumpers from everywhere while defending his position? The short answer is all of them, but I'm enamored with two potential landing spots: Detroit and Oklahoma City.
Smith is exactly what Cade Cunningham is yearning for in a second star. According to NBA.com, the Pistons rank third in the NBA in percentage of 3-pointers that are assisted, meaning they have people to create open 3s, they just don't have anyone who can make them -- they're tied (with the Thunder) for last place in 3-point percentage. Smith's shooting would give Cunningham the pick-and-pop threat he's missing, especially with Jerami Grant potentially on the way out, while allowing Cunningham to take a back seat as an off-ball threat on Smith midpost isolations.
Smith could also be the third star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey need in OKC, which would benefit all parties involved as the Thunder are thin up front and short on floor spacers. Because he's not a great passer at this stage of his career, playing alongside gifted playmakers like Giddey and Gilgeous-Alexander (and Cunningham, for that matter) would be ideal for the Auburn forward, allowing him to ease into the NBA without too much pressure to create all the offense.
How quickly will Smith have an impact? He'll stay on the floor because of the shooting and the fact that he's at least physically capable of defending on the perimeter at 6-10, 220 with a 7-1 wingspan. As Jonathan outlined, he's already the best player on arguably the best team in the country at 18, which suggests he'll be ready to contribute from day one.
With that said, he's not the most naturally physical like Banchero, who could ultimately be the favorite to win Rookie of the Year depending on where he lands. The game does move a bit too fast for Smith on both ends and he's not overly long or strong, so I wouldn't expect him to be an All-Star in Year 1 or impact the game in every facet like an Evan Mobley has. But he'll surely be one of the top scorers among rookies thanks to that versatile shooting stroke at 6-10, with the defensive chops and competitiveness to earn the trust of his head coach. -- Mike Schmitz
What are the concerns NBA teams have and what will evaluators be watching most closely the next two months-plus?
Smith doesn't turn 19 until mid-May, so it shouldn't be surprising to anyone that he lacks strength and has struggled playing through physicality at times on both ends of the floor. He ranks last among college big men in our top 100 in rebounding percentage, rebounding similarly to guard prospects such as Johnny Davis. Smith's numbers look even worse in games against high-major competition. He often stands and watches loose balls carom off the glass, rarely putting a body on opponents as shots go up, and has had similar issues in pick-and-roll coverages, being a step slow with his reaction time and not fighting through screens effectively.
For as skilled and exciting a prospect as he is offensively, Smith has also struggled generating efficient offense for himself and others, especially inside the arc where he has shot just 48%. Smith lacks a degree of strength and explosiveness as a finisher around the basket, ranking 333rd in the country in made dunks this season, per Bart Torvik, and is too reliant on the type of contested 2-point jumpers that even high-level NBA players struggle to convert at a high rate. On the season, Smith is hitting just 38% of his non-layup/dunk attempts, per Torvik, with those shots consisting of 70% of his 2-point attempts. His assist-to-turnover ratio has been poor against quality competition as well. As the season moves on, scouts will want to see Smith's game slow down for him, better decision-making as a passer and perhaps a toning down of his at-times overly ambitious shot selection, of which he seemingly makes just enough to convince him to continue to take an extremely high degree of difficult attempts.
For a prospect of Smith's caliber, these are more nitpicks than fatal flaws, as many of his issues will be solved by adding strength, experience and polish as his career moves on. The fact that he's highly competitive, exceptionally skilled, as well as young and reportedly highly coachable, makes it easy to see him improving rapidly over the next few years. It will be interesting to see how Smith handles the length and physicality of Kentucky on Saturday, as that's exactly the type of long-armed, experienced frontcourt NBA teams will use to evaluate where Smith stands at this stage of his development. -- Jonathan Givony
Who is Smith's comp in the NBA? What is his ceiling / floor in terms of what type of player(s) Smith can become?
I think it's important to get a little more nuanced with comparisons than usual, especially when we're talking about potential No. 1 picks like Smith. So, let's use multiple players to break down elements of Smith's game and then come back for some big-picture projections.
In terms of his shot profile, Smith has some Michael Porter Jr. in his game -- a shot-making forward who can play the 3 or 4 and gets a lot of his offense by way of elevating over top of smaller opponents for jump shots (almost 70% of his attempts right now). Like Porter, Smith can shoot the ball on the move, potentially even off screens down the road because of his high release and comfort making shots from all angles, rarely needing perfect balance. Similar to MPJ's play alongside Nikola Jokic, Smith would thrive next to a center who can handle and pass, activating the 18-year-old's movement shooting out of handoffs and big-to-big combination screens.
Smith isn't as bouncy as a healthy Porter is, and the Nuggets forward is a little bit more wing-like than the Auburn star, playing 74% of his minutes at the 3 last season. As Smith told us in the Bahamas, power forward will likely be his most used and advantageous position in the NBA. With that said, Porter faced similar questions about his ability to get by his defender in the NBA and handle contact, as he played the very upright style we see from Smith as well. Both guys live off tough shots yet are more than capable because of their size and touch.
With his big hands and a high release, there are also glimpses of a 6-10 Kawhi Leonard in Smith's midpost game, one that features left- and right-shoulder turnarounds, step-backs, and even rip-throughs to draw fouls. They have some stylistic similarities with their approach out of triple-threat situations, in their footwork on midrange pull-ups, and the somewhat flat trajectory of their shots. You see shades of Jayson Tatum in the midpost as well. Smith's stats aren't too far off from Tatum's freshman year stats at Duke, and both are highly skilled with great midrange games and the ability to make highly contested shots. Smith isn't as smooth with the ball as Tatum was at that stage, but the two forwards thrive off isolation buckets. On the flip side, Smith isn't the rugged, physical rebounder or downhill driver that Leonard was in college, even if he's 3 inches taller and far more advanced on offense at the same stage. He doesn't quite project as the same level of stopper that Leonard became.
As far as defense is concerned, Smith is a much better defender than Porter and Tatum. On the defensive end, Smith has Jonathan Isaac-like feet guarding the perimeter. Like the 6-11 Isaac, he plays with great activity and energy on the perimeter, showing the ability to slide with point guards, check wings and even play some small-ball 5 in a pinch. When healthy, Isaac is the superior rim protector, a more engaged off-ball defender and a more ambitious rebounder than Smith. But you can expect that type of sit-and-slide defense and switch ability from Smith.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is another name you hear often linked to Smith. The comparison has some merit as both are tall, floor-spacing forwards who can guard on the perimeter, yet leave much to be desired in the rebounding and passing departments. Jackson, however, is considerably longer (7-5 wingspan), with a far bigger frame and real rim-protection chops (5.5 blocks per 40 minutes at Michigan State), which is an area Smith struggles at right now, giving up too many shots at the rim and not quite having the frame or length to play as much 5 as Jackson.
Another name that merits comparison to Smith is Pascal Siakam, though at 18 Siakam was still searching for a prep school and had a much different path, having to make it as a defender first then evolve his offensive skill. Smith is a better shooter now than Siakam ever was and will be. But in terms of a scoring forward who can get his own shot, push in transition and defend the perimeter, there are some similarities. A taller De'Andre Hunter is a "worst case" comparison that could be made as well, given his stout on-ball defense and shooting.
So what does all that mean? Is Smith a more durable, better defending, less bouncy Michael Porter Jr.? Is he a less physical, taller, more naturally skilled Kawhi Leonard? Is he a less polished, power forward version of Jayson Tatum? Is he a 4/3 version of Jaren Jackson Jr.? Is he prime Siakam with a better jumper? He has elements of all those players, which is certainly a good sign for the Auburn forward. I see his floor as an immediate NBA starter who makes one or two All-Star Games during his career. As for his ceiling? An All-Star by Year 3 and eventual All-NBA player with the type of game that will allow him to play with other stars and eventually compete for championships. -- Mike Schmitz
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Can Jaren Jackson do this, honest question
Dude impressed me on defensive side at first, the offense is just becoming something that folks are kind of projecting pretty highly... which is fine
Dude impressed me on defensive side at first, the offense is just becoming something that folks are kind of projecting pretty highly... which is fine
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I like his game, but I dont like Jabari's shooting mechanics at all. Thats a shot that gets blocked at the next level.
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idk about that but I'm sure he can clean up his shot some
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He's 6'10". He's not getting blocked out there.
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With elevation and a decently high release point
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His 3pt shot is blockable. Looks like he releases with his palm almost. Im sure they'll sharpen it, whoever drafts him.
Reminds me of a smaller Evan Mobley.
Reminds me of a smaller Evan Mobley.
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JJJ shoots off his chest. Smith will be fine
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JJJ has range. Like he’ll pull up from 2-3 feet behind the arc.
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How many 4s shoot contested 3s? Most of the time you’re popping or spotting up
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That's what's so unique about Smith. Someone that tall with those ball skills and footwork making contested shots is weird to process
But also to your post, this is why I'm tempering my offensive ceiling/carryability of him as the #1 of a team. If he ends up as #2ish option with either elite or just below elite defense I'm great with that outcome
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A whole lot more now. Also the traditional 4 is really not around anymore.
Smith we’ll be ok, idk about #1 pick worthy. There is nothing elite offensively there. Solid all around player. Maybe a #2-3 option on a playoff team.
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What would you say Banchero is elite at?
I think Smith could be elite defensively, he just needs to gain about 10 lbs. Someone like him with offense to boot to me is definitely worthy case for #1 pick. Especially when you look at the other guys in the running. I think all 3 guys have solid cases for being #1 btw
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Traditional 4 is back.
Mobley
Giannis
AD
Collins
JJJ
Zion.
Julius and KP whether you like them or not.
2 of the top 3 picks going to be playing the 4. You’ll still see athletic 3s playing the 4 but yeah PFs are back. Not posting up like 20 years ago but more so a hybrid.
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Mainly just been watching Smith since he stock shot up. Didn’t really watch Banchero outside some random highlights. Top 5 seem like all solid players that can come in contribute right away.
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Breh. How you gonna say someone isn't the #1 pick without watching the other prospects lol
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Idk when I think traditional 4 I think of the Duncan, Gasol, KG etc. Back to the basket guys, post up guys, a 3 here and there. Youre right about Mobley, it’s why I liked him so much. Old school game with new school skills. AD too.
Idk about the rest though. They rather shoot than be in the paint. Smith does fill that traditional 4 category though.
Idk about the rest though. They rather shoot than be in the paint. Smith does fill that traditional 4 category though.
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When I think #1 I think of consensus #1. Better than the rest. Franchise changing player. Didn’t hear any of that about this draft.
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I mean I hear you, I'm just saying, not every draft class is built the same. Therefore you kinda need to survey the candidates to fairly assess
Not every draft has a franchise changing player
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
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Banchero is much more advanced and versatile offensively than Jabari. All Jabari does is jab step which no one bites on, and pulls up a contested jumper. He’s an elite shooter so it’s been working for him, but Banchero definitely is more versatile offensively.
