How to explain a 70% SNKRS win rate??

AJ5Fan4ever · Sep 28, 2024

Hey guys. Second post here. I've been using the SNKRS app since early 2024 - I only go for stuff that has the chance to make profit on resell because I do everything I can to get by, I only resell off of things I get directly from manufacturer just because I don't have the time to seek out deals on ebay or thrift stores or wtv. I've entered a total of 10 raffles in my history as a human, only on snkrs, in the past year. so I'd barely even call it reselling. Honestly, it's more of an excuse to handle some cool sneakers and make 20 bucks on the side now and then.

Out of those ten raffles, here is my w/L rate, in no specific order

2024 year of the dragon af1 (GR, not china only release): W (the only shoe I've kept as personal)
Dunk low philly: L
rtfkt dunk: L
Stussy long sleeve knit: W
Stussy UV top: W
Stussy Ld1000 (bright green): w
WNBA desert camo AJ3: W
Kobe 4 gold medal: w
para-noise 3.0 AF1: W
verdy sb dunk: L

total w/l rate:
7/10

some ppl go months or even years without hitting, so is this weird? idk lol

I know there are a lot of conspiracy theories abt snkrs, so here are some facts about me:

Live in LA
pay with a debit card only, same one every time
buy different sizes depending on the shoe
no social media except for youtube and this I guess, I also browse sneaker subreddits but have no account. Ive made 3 gaming edits on my yt, and regularly view sneaker content, but I use a different email for my yt acc and my nike acc.
Never bought anything from nike website befofe using snkrs, still don't unless it is off snkrs. I do browse their website a lot though, and I am signed in whenever i do.
Ive bought three things from a nike outlet, probably totaling like 250 bucks. some dunks, some forces, and some joggers.
I've gotten exclusive access 3 times but didn't use any of them because I didnt get the notification :frown:

i only have one account and i do everything from my phone
I average 5 min a day on the snkrs app
i turn on notifications for the shoes i go for

thats all i can think to list. Sneaker raffle sages of nike talk, do i just have killer luck or does nike love me? please enlighten me.

EDIT: just took the L on the travis scott aj1 medium olives. W/L rate is now 63.6%

frenchbreadbuilds · Oct 8, 2024

the biggest factors that will contribute to your win rate are your size and desriability of the release. you have a 70% win rate but the bulk of things you won are at or below retail on the the ressell market after fees. which correlates to demand being low. You lost on everything that had high demand.

And you said you went after a variety of sizes but my guess that your wins were probably for sizes that were lower than a size 10. That pretty much explains your win rate.

AJ5Fan4ever · Oct 9, 2024

frenchbreadbuilds said:
the biggest factors that will contribute to your win rate are your size and desriability of the release. you have a 70% win rate but the bulk of things you won are at or below retail on the the ressell market after fees. which correlates to demand being low. You lost on everything that had high demand.

And you said you went after a variety of sizes but my guess that your wins were probably for sizes that were lower than a size 10. That pretty much explains your win rate.

nope. All sizes 11 and higher, except for the year of the dragon af1s which I got in my size, 10.5. I won the Kobe gold medals (size 12) and the para-noise af1s (12.5), which both sold out immediately and are going for a decent amount above retail.

frenchbreadbuilds · Oct 10, 2024

AJ5Fan4ever said:
nope. All sizes 11 and higher, except for the year of the dragon af1s which I got in my size, 10.5. I won the Kobe gold medals (size 12) and the para-noise af1s (12.5), which both sold out immediately and are going for a decent amount above retail.

My bad I orginally read year of the dragon AJ1

These retailed for $135

These retailed for $200

Were they released via draw? All draws sell out after the timer i know for sure there were restocks of the dragon AF1 and went on sale at some retailers. Based on the size info you provided though, id say then you wins are more explained by demand not the size. as a size 11-11.5 id say that you had a successful year for the things you went after, but the only "lucky" W would have been the Kobe's and those arent currently reselling for a ton. if you adjusted you stats based on "hyped"/hard to get releases Kobes, philly dunks, rtfkt dunks, verdy dunks, and the travis medium olives your win rate on things with resell value your win rate would be 20%. Which is where alot of us in the larger size ranges are with SNKRS as well.