Advanced Statistics vol. NBA

Originally Posted by abovelegit1

I'll paraphrase:



Offensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal offense) / (marginal points per win). Marginal offense is equal to (points produced) - 0.92 * (league points per possession) * (offensive possessions). Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)).

Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win).
Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)).

Wins Shares as a whole is just a sum of offensive and defensive win shares.
Click to expand...
I'm back in this thread.

Thanks for the help.  You gave me the formula which I'm trying to understand..  I still don't, my head hurts.

But most importantly, what is the formula trying to determine?  What's his significance? 

I'm not entirely understanding the purpose of the formula. 
 
Originally Posted by abovelegit1

I'll paraphrase:



Offensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal offense) / (marginal points per win). Marginal offense is equal to (points produced) - 0.92 * (league points per possession) * (offensive possessions). Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)).

Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win).
Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)).

Wins Shares as a whole is just a sum of offensive and defensive win shares.
Click to expand...
I'm back in this thread.

Thanks for the help.  You gave me the formula which I'm trying to understand..  I still don't, my head hurts.

But most importantly, what is the formula trying to determine?  What's his significance? 

I'm not entirely understanding the purpose of the formula. 
 
some stats dont tell the true story no matter how much they try. at the end of the day the eye test is the best. dont believe the hype.
 
some stats dont tell the true story no matter how much they try. at the end of the day the eye test is the best. dont believe the hype.
 
Originally Posted by amel223

Originally Posted by abovelegit1

I'll paraphrase:



Offensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal offense) / (marginal points per win). Marginal offense is equal to (points produced) - 0.92 * (league points per possession) * (offensive possessions). Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)).

Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win).
Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)).

Wins Shares as a whole is just a sum of offensive and defensive win shares.
Click to expand...
I'm back in this thread.

Thanks for the help.  You gave me the formula which I'm trying to understand..  I still don't, my head hurts.

But most importantly, what is the formula trying to determine?  What's his significance? 

I'm not entirely understanding the purpose of the formula. 
Click to expand...
It's attempting to determine how many wins a player contributes to his team, one of the biggest issues stats have is finding a way to make it easy to understand the way it impacts a team performance.

So rather than saying Lebron James PER is  14.5 points higher than Mo Willaims and people not know what the #!@* that means or what that has to do with basketball, you can say LBJ was worth 8 more wins than Mo.
[h2][/h2]
[h2]Does This Work?[/h2]
Because this metric is designed to estimate a player's contribution interms of wins, it makes sense to see if the sum of player Win Shares for aparticular team closely matches the team win total. For the 2008-09Cavaliers the sum of player Win Shares is 67.9, while the team win totalis 66, an error of 66 - 67.9 = -1.9 wins. For the 1964-65 Royals the sumof player Win Shares is 43.5, while the team total is 48, an error of 48 -43.5 = 4.5 wins. These errors are actually close to the "typical" error;looking at all NBA teams since the 1962-63 season (the last season we havecomplete player splits), the average absolute error is 2.74 wins and theroot mean squared error is 3.41 wins.

cc
Click to expand...
 
Originally Posted by amel223

Originally Posted by abovelegit1

I'll paraphrase:



Offensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal offense) / (marginal points per win). Marginal offense is equal to (points produced) - 0.92 * (league points per possession) * (offensive possessions). Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)).

Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win).
Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)).

Wins Shares as a whole is just a sum of offensive and defensive win shares.
Click to expand...
I'm back in this thread.

Thanks for the help.  You gave me the formula which I'm trying to understand..  I still don't, my head hurts.

But most importantly, what is the formula trying to determine?  What's his significance? 

I'm not entirely understanding the purpose of the formula. 
Click to expand...
It's attempting to determine how many wins a player contributes to his team, one of the biggest issues stats have is finding a way to make it easy to understand the way it impacts a team performance.

So rather than saying Lebron James PER is  14.5 points higher than Mo Willaims and people not know what the #!@* that means or what that has to do with basketball, you can say LBJ was worth 8 more wins than Mo.
[h2][/h2]
[h2]Does This Work?[/h2]
Because this metric is designed to estimate a player's contribution interms of wins, it makes sense to see if the sum of player Win Shares for aparticular team closely matches the team win total. For the 2008-09Cavaliers the sum of player Win Shares is 67.9, while the team win totalis 66, an error of 66 - 67.9 = -1.9 wins. For the 1964-65 Royals the sumof player Win Shares is 43.5, while the team total is 48, an error of 48 -43.5 = 4.5 wins. These errors are actually close to the "typical" error;looking at all NBA teams since the 1962-63 season (the last season we havecomplete player splits), the average absolute error is 2.74 wins and theroot mean squared error is 3.41 wins.

cc
Click to expand...
 
Can someone direct me to somewhere that I can find who has seen the biggest jumps in 3PT% (NBA)?
 
dcallamerican said:
Can someone direct me to somewhere that I can find who has seen the biggest jumps in 3PT% (NBA)?
Click to expand...

Scraped together some data real quick from the nba site.

Only included players who attempted at least 50 3pointers in this season and last season, and appeared in at least 40 games this season and last season. Here's top 50 players with the largest improvement in 3p%
upload_2018-3-3_15-47-52.png
 
Watch "Michael Jordan’s fadeaway was efficient, beautiful and unguardable | Signature Shots" on YouTube
 
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