Lebron Would Have Averaged 40 10 10 if Game played at Robertsons Pace

Discussion in 'Sports & Training' started by prinse3, Feb 24, 2009.

  1. prinse3

    prinse3

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    Here is the article from Neil Pane of Basketball-Reference, one of the best stats sites on the net. courtesy of truehoop. Very interesting to read.

    • Wow. Wow. Wow. 40.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and 10 assists per game. According to Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference, that's what LeBron James would be averaging if he played at the same pace (possessions per 48 minutes) that Oscar Robertson did in 1962 when he became the only person ever to average a triple double. Paine writes: "1962, if you recall, was not only the year Oscar averaged a triple-double, but also the season Wilt Chamberlain did all sorts of ludicrous things, like scoring 100 points in a game and averaging 50.4 per. He also averaged 26 rebounds a night; Bill Russell averaged 24. The stat-stuffing that went on that year truly boggles the mind. ... Okay, so you've all seen Wilt and Oscar's numbers from 1962, but have you ever sat down and looked at the league averages that year? In '62, the average team took 107.7 shots per game. By comparison, this year the average team takes 80.2 FGA/G. If we use a regression to estimate turnovers & offensive rebounds, the league pace factor for 1962 was 125.5 possessions/48 minutes, whereas this year it's 91.7. Oscar's Royals averaged 124.7 poss/48, while Wilt's Warriors put up a staggering 129.7 (the highest mark in the league). On the other hand, the 2009 Cavs are averaging a mere 89.2 poss/48. It turns out that the simplest explanation for the crazy statistical feats of 1961-62 (and the early sixties in general) is just that the league was playing at a much faster tempo in those days, with more possessions affording players more opportunities to amass gaudy counting statistics. Let's say LeBron '09 could switch paces (note that I didn't say "places", which is another argument entirely) with Oscar '62 ... That means we would have to scale down the Big O's per-game numbers by multiplying them by .715, giving Robertson a far more reasonable line of 22.0 PPG, 8.9 RPG, & 8.1 APG -- which are still really good numbers, to be sure, but not as crazy as they looked at the breakneck pace of '62. By contrast, we have to multiply LBJ's stats by a factor of 1.4 if we want to see what they would look like if he played at a 1962-style pace. The results: 40.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG, & 10.0 APG!! As you can see, those 35.5 extra possessions per game really make a huge difference when comparing the two players' stats. So, no, LeBron probably will never average an Oscar-esque triple-double in today's NBA ... but it's more a consequence of the league's pace than any failing on his part. Just like we wouldn't say a .400 hitter in the 1894 NL (league BA: .309) was as impressive as Ted Williams hitting .406 in the 1941 AL (league BA: .266), basketball fans should keep in mind that the league's pace factor has gone down steadily since its inception, and with those fewer possessions come fewer chances to put up monster stat totals. This isn't meant to denigrate Oscar and Wilt in any way, but it does mean that their eye-popping stats from back then are, in reality, not quite as impressive as they appear at first glance."
     
  2. longrange3ball

    longrange3ball

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    i bet a good number of NBA players, not just LBJ, would have increased stats playing at Robertson's pace.

    nevertheless, interesting.
     
  3. prinse3

    prinse3

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    ^yah i agree, i just found the article interesting. 107 shots a game! thats outrageous. I think baylor also put up ludicrous numbers that year
     
  4. tmoney85

    tmoney85

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    LOL

    DH would probably avg 40 rebounds, 13 block shots. Kobe would avg 45, 8 and 8. CP3 would avg 30 assists a game. Kwame would avg 15 turnovers a game.

    Thus, this article is dumb.
     
  5. jville819

    jville819

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    Mike would avg 60 7 7 in this lame $%@ era of NBA we're in.


    This is pointless
     
  6. tmoney85

    tmoney85

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    more like 60 9 9 and rodman= 52 rebounds a game... and 15 technicals a game.
     
  7. prinse3

    prinse3

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    im not talking about the era...... im talkin about the pace.. The article is not dumb Neil Payne would tear you to shreds in a hoops debate. Hes one of themost respected analysts in the league today. More than 15 teams use his services.

    I was simply showing an interesting article that pointed out how much faster the pace of the game was back in the day. did you know they put up 107 shotscompared to 80 before that? no. So if ur not interested keep it moving, but i posted this for the stats geeks
     
  8. dontsteponmyshoes

    dontsteponmyshoes

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    i hate IFs
     
  9. RyGuy45

    RyGuy45

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    Bill Simmons wrote about this a few years ago concerning Oscar. Cannot ever take away from the guy averaging a triple double, and if it was so easy everyonewould be doing it, but that year Oscar won it:

    NBA Rebounds Per Game:

    25.7 - Chamberlain
    23.6 - Russell
    19.0 - Bellamy
    18.7 - Pettit
    18.6 - Baylor

    A total of 15 players averaged over 10 RPG for the year as well.

    A different time back then....

    Still, only one to do it.
     
  10. stoneyjax

    stoneyjax

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    [​IMG]Chamberlain averaging 50 & 26 thats ridicolous ... but no one wasclose to his size in those days
     
  11. sheryaryo

    sheryaryo

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    true that
     
  12. amishpimp27

    amishpimp27

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  13. shuges

    shuges

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    Interesting...

    It's not even an "IF" article. The author is just pointing out the differences in the 2 eras. Putting things in perspective if you will.

    And what RyGuy added, further backs it up.
     
  14. theyoungestgun

    theyoungestgun

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    putting things in perspective only for one player.. means in other words he's biased. because all the superstars from today would have increased number,like everyone already mentioned.
     
  15. jepeh21

    jepeh21

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    i wonder how many rebounds per game rodman would have averaged
     
  16. prinse3

    prinse3

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    ^ wrong. He uses lebron as the example, because his stats are the most dominant thereby helping prove his point better. He knows everyones stats improve, butdo anyones go to 40 10 and 10... no
     
  17. RyGuy45

    RyGuy45

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    The other interesting part though is that there were only 8 or 9 teams in the league I believe.

    You can take that different ways.
     
  18. kingjames216

    kingjames216

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    You really got to think about talent back then is no where near the talent of the NBA today,so as its a great artical but I highlllllllyyyyyy dought OscarRobinson and Wilt would even come close to the numbers they put up in the NBA today.
     
  19. crossisom

    crossisom

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    So LeBron is top ten alltime then? [​IMG]I'm just being a butthole, he needs a ring and a few more years at his current level ofplay.
     
  20. durden7

    durden7

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    The thing is that he has to keep up his numbers AT that pace. Its like running one mile in 4 minutes and thinking youll run 10 miles in 40 minutes. Tooooomany variables in this article.
     
  21. nychiphophippo

    nychiphophippo

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    why are dudes here trying to argue [​IMG]

    i guess defenses were trash back then that so many shots were being put up.
     
  22. smedroc

    smedroc

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    the Suns probably get off that many shots a game...and that was influenced by D'antoni's system.

    hmmmm....i think what he's trying to say is Bron is going NY in 2010.
     
  23. chris paul 3

    chris paul 3

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    [​IMG]
     
  24. clutchshooter

    clutchshooter

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    if if if if if if if if ifififififififififififififififififififififififififififififififififififififififififif.

    NO.
     
  25. holdenmichael

    holdenmichael Administrator

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