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May 27, 2009
[font=times new roman, times, serif]Matchup Problems[/font]
Why the Magic Gives the Cavs Fits
by Bradford Doolittle
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The NBA headlines Tuesday morning advertised a Mo Williams "guarantee" regarding the Cavaliers' chances of fending off the stout challenge being offered up by the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference finals. Because of that, the side story to last night's classic Game Four was about how Williams had to eat his words.
This was so overblown. The headlines were cooked. The line of questioning that led to Williams' comments was obviously intended to goad Williams into making a guarantee. You're not going to get a player on a 66-win team to say that he expects to lose. Not in a playoff series. What was he supposed to say? I was watching the wires last night at the paper I toil at, and the story about how Williams couldn't back up his "boast" moved at the same time as the game story. Some AP dude in Orlando had the story ready to send as soon as he could press "Enter" with his greedy little fingers.
Anyway...back to basketball. Williams was right about one thing: Cleveland is the best team in the NBA. They proved that over their first 90 games this season, of which they won 74. The Cavs' led the league in wins, point differential and had the top power rating in the NBA at 65.3, according to my world-famous formula. Seven of the eight previous teams with power ratings that high since the ABA-NBA merger have won the NBA title, with the 2007 Mavericks as the only exception.
Being the best team doesn't guarantee anything, as I'm sure even Williams would attest today. What's become apparent is that Cleveland is just not the same team against Orlando. All the numbers that follow were cooked up prior to last night's game.
In the first half of Game Four, it looked like the Cavs might have figured a few things out. For the game, the Cavs' offensive efficiency was 111.6. But the Magic, as we all witnessed, hit 17 three-pointers, posted a 61% eFG and a 113.6 offensive efficiency. Any progress that Clevland made on the offensive end was eradicated by worsening issues on the other end of the floor.Code:GP PACE oEFF dEFF nEFFvNBA 87 86.5 115.8 103.8 12.0vORL 6 88.3 106.2 114.9 -8.7
It's rather amazing. The Cavaliers have been nearly 21 points per 100 possessions worse against the Magic than against the other 28 teams in the NBA. They've scored 9.6 fewer points and allowed 11.1 more points per 100 possessions, so you can't isolate the problems to the offensive or defensive end. To put it bluntly, Orlando has kicked Cleveland's tail just about every way it can be kicked.
How can this be? Can quirky matchups really explain this kind of swing? Let's do a quick Four Factors analysis to see if we can isolate some sort of cause and effect.
The differences are across the board. The Cavs shoot worse and are much, much worse at defending shots. They don't get as many offensive rebounds, but do a good job of keeping Orlando off the offensive glass. They don't commit as many turnovers, nor do they force as many. They don't get to the line nearly as often against Orlando and they put the Magic on the charity stripe more than other opponents.Code:CLE CLE CLE CLE | OPP OPP OPP OPP eFG% oREB% TO% FTM/FGA | eFG% oREB% TO% FTM/FGAvNBA .521 .285 .139 .244 | .461 .253 .153 .224vORL .470 .219 .125 .203 | .551 .206 .138 .243
Cleveland's shooting numbers, for and against, are what really jabs you in the eye. So let's examine that area at the player level to see what's what. We'll leave aside the Cavaliers' defensive issues for the time being. Here are Cleveland's stats, split into the six games against the Magic (before last night) and the 87 games against everybody else.
Two columns need explanation. TPA% is the percentage of field-goal attempt that have come behind the three-point arc. The last column (%SH) represents an estimate of team shooting possessions used, with shooting possessions calculated as FGA + (.44 * FTA). LeBron James is taking 7% more of Cleveland's shots against Orlando than in other games. However, the rest of the %SH figures for the Cavaliers' primary rotation players are largely unchanged. So James' extra shots are coming at the expense of end-of-the-bench players that haven't seen much, if any, court action against the Magic. The end result is that Cleveland's shot distribution is largely unchanged against Orlando.Code:Player FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA eFG% TPA% FT/FGA %SHL.James_NBA 841 1697 142 414 651 841 .537 .244 .384 27%L.James_ORL 75 155 11 31 56 72 .519 .200 .361 34%------------------------------------------------------------------------S.Pavlovic_NBA 118 270 47 115 26 56 .524 .426 .096 4%S.Pavlovic_ORL 8 25 3 10 0 1 .380 .400 .000 5%------------------------------------------------------------------------D.West_NBA 317 688 95 237 115 137 .530 .344 .167 10%D.West_ORL 19 46 6 19 4 5 .478 .413 .087 9%------------------------------------------------------------------------M.Williams_NBA 554 1183 197 458 213 237 .552 .387 .180 17%M.Williams_ORL 34 98 12 40 14 18 .408 .408 .143 19%------------------------------------------------------------------------Z.Ilgauskas_NBA 371 784 17 46 147 190 .484 .059 .188 11%Z.Ilgauskas_ORL 21 56 0 6 7 8 .375 .107 .125 11%------------------------------------------------------------------------A.Varejao_NBA 276 521 0 2 159 255 .530 .004 .305 8%A.Varejao_ORL 21 39 0 0 8 13 .538 .000 .205 8%------------------------------------------------------------------------J.Smith_NBA 168 353 5 10 79 107 .483 .028 .224 5%J.Smith_ORL 10 29 1 2 3 4 .362 .069 .103 6%------------------------------------------------------------------------B.Wallace_NBA 70 155 0 0 27 68 .452 .000 .174 2%B.Wallace_ORL 3 6 0 0 0 0 .500 .000 .000 1%------------------------------------------------------------------------D.Gibson_NBA 91 241 40 129 38 51 .461 .535 .158 3%D.Gibson_ORL 0 1 0 1 0 0 .000 1.000 .000 0%------------------------------------------------------------------------Cavs_NBA 3186 6771 684 1764 1654 2191 .521 .261 .244 7735.0Cavs_ORL 211 493 41 123 100 132 .470 .249 .203 551.1
What has changed is the success of those shots. James' eFG% is down against Orlando (.537 to .519), but that's not what is killing the Cavs. The Cleveland guards are all suffering at the hands of Orlando's long perimeter defenders, with Mo Williams suffering the biggest drop by far (.552 to .40. For the most part, Williams has been defended by Rafer Alston, which doesn't present a size disadvantage. He was also bumped around by Anthony Johnson in Game Three, which left Williams with a nasty shiner above one of his eyes. Still, one knock against Cleveland's pair of combo guards that have played so well this season is that they are undersized as a tandem. Williams' shooting woes aren't really a product of that possible deficiency.
Williams' counterpart, Delonte West, has had to contend mostly with Courtney Lee, while Mickael Pietrus, J.J. Redick and Hedo Turkoglu have mixed in from time to time. So size has been more of an issue for West, but his eFG% hasn't dropped as much as Williams' has against Orlando (.530 to .47
In fact, pretty much all of the Cavs have seen a drop in their foul-drawing rate against Orlando, albeit to a lesser degree than West's tumble. The Magic led the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, while posting the fourth-lowest defensive foul rate in the NBA. Dwight Howard gets most of the credit for this. He is so adept at closing down the lane that opposing teams are forced into more perimeter shots. Howard is always waiting back there to seal off any penetration and because of that, the perimeter shots are more tightly defended. On top of that, those defenders, other than Alston, represent one of the tallest lineups in the league. Orlando's defenders aren't just long--they're mobile. They are able to execute this scheme without an excess of fouling.
What can Cleveland do? Not much, really. Mike Brown can't ask for much more from LeBron James. West likely can't go off the dribble much more than he has because of the aforementioned talents of Mr. Howard. The key is Williams. Even if Alston is pinching him on the circle, he's got to find a way to make a higher percentage of his shots. Williams is the primary support to James on the offensive end. He's the second-leading scorer and the only other Cavalier on the roster consistently capable of getting his own shot. He's proven capable of making contested shots in the past, so if the Cavs are going to win this series, Williams is going to have to make shots with a guy in his face. That's really the only way Cleveland is going to be able to get the points that have been so hard to come by against the Magic this season. He showed signs of snapping out of his funk in Game Four...then didn't score after the third quarter.
Another thing that would help is if Zydrunas Ilgauskas can be a more effective mid-range jump shooter. Other than his forays into the post, he's tended to plant himself outside of the three-point circle in one of the corners in the current series. Howard won't follow him out there, but if Ilgauskas can go back to hitting the 15-18 footers that he's so adept at, then perhaps Howard will have to move out of the lane. Howard is exceptionally quick at recovering, of course, but as long as Ilgauskas is shooting a .375 eFG%, it's easier for Howard to cheat back towards the middle and discourage any would-be penetrators.
Offensively, Cleveland would do well to field a small lineup with James at the four position. However, the small lineup presents issues at the defensive end. Ilgauskas is not adept at defending Howard on the pick-and-roll. That's the role that Anderson Varejao fills. However, Varejao can't hit the jump shots that might help soften up the middle of Orlando's defense. It's a heck of a problem for Brown and there are no easy answers. He's opted to play Ilgauskas alongside Varejao most of the time. That hasn't worked defensively, either, so I think it may be time to cut Varejao's minutes and go small. That would at least help to cover up Orlando's perimeter barrage. It might also allow Howard to go off for 40 points, but nothing Brown has tried defensively so far has worked and a smaller lineup would work better on offense.
Based on what Cleveland has done against Orlando to date, the Cavaliers turned out to be the real underdogs in this series. Even if Williams and Ilgauskas start converting their jump shots, we haven't covered the Cavs' problems defending Orlando. Cleveland is far from out of the series, but they are in trouble. Brown is the newly-minted coach of the year and it'll be fascinating to see how he counteracts the matchup problems that Stan Van Gundy throws his way. Brown's ability to adapt will go a long way towards determining if the James Epoch has any chance of starting this season.
