- 7,992
- 14,629
- Joined
- Feb 7, 2010
Nike x Sacai Collaboration Thread -SACAI X NIKE MAGMASCAPE PACK
- Thread in 'Nike' Thread starter Started by Arthur Shelby,
- Start date
- 23,469
- 30,404
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2013
its too good of a month in terms of releases for me to cry hard about this one lol
- 2,606
- 2,951
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2012
I really wanted the black/white pair. They look amazing to me.
If anyone wants to trade their 11.5 sacai’s for a 11.5 Veneer hit me up
If anyone wants to trade their 11.5 sacai’s for a 11.5 Veneer hit me up
- 870
- 222
- Joined
- Nov 22, 2012
really wanted to get these for my wife. looks like resell market for me.
- 1,138
- 1,954
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2013
First cncpts raffle win.... more red than fuscha
- 775
- 704
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2012
How is Nike going to put incorrect info on their own shoe 
Everywhere ive seen it’s clearly red other than the app lol
Everywhere ive seen it’s clearly red other than the app lol
- 1,138
- 1,954
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2013
I think it woulda looked better if it was fuschaHow is Nike going to put incorrect info on their own shoe
- 21,575
- 10,193
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2007
is there any sizing consensus yet on these? Normal Nike sizing?
Excited to see more on foot shot of these.
Excited to see more on foot shot of these.
- 870
- 222
- Joined
- Nov 22, 2012
I've been hearing tss or half size down since they are a bit chunky.
- 5,502
- 13,444
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2017
Wow, my brother won the black pair on SNKRS (size 11) and so did my friend (9.5).
Meanwhile, I overslept and missed my opportunity! Ughhh! And I was feeling very optimistic because I’ve made 3-4 purchases on SNKRS/NIKE in November.
Meanwhile, I overslept and missed my opportunity! Ughhh! And I was feeling very optimistic because I’ve made 3-4 purchases on SNKRS/NIKE in November.
- 1,901
- 976
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2007
Man It's been such a heck of a freaking week.. I also got the blacks TOO! After missing out on ALLL Sacais last year I am more than happy
- 10,843
- 16,016
- Joined
- Jun 25, 2013
Has that been proven tho? Thought it was always random.
- 23,469
- 30,404
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2013
to a certain extent, but it doesn't hurt to log some activity on your snkrs app by interacting and purchasing stuff. I have 2 other accounts that hasn't bought anything since 2018 and I have not hit anything on those accounts without activity. Not saying its proven but I had another account that was the same and I made a GR purchase on it few months ago and have hit 2 decent releases on it ever since.
- 11,300
- 29,974
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2017
definitely false. I copped a few pairs on SNKRS this month and got two Ls this morning
- 11,300
- 29,974
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2017
First cncpts raffle win.... more red than fuscha
They made these in a size 18?
- 10,843
- 16,016
- Joined
- Jun 25, 2013
My same reaction when I saw lbj in red octobers.
*they come in that size????
- 32,832
- 24,892
- Joined
- Sep 23, 2012
Had no idea these dropped today 
this week has been crazy with everything releasing
this week has been crazy with everything releasing
- 5,502
- 13,444
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2017
- 5,502
- 13,444
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2017
Nothing is proven, no. And no matter what, it still boils down to luck. It is still mostly random. Mostly.
But your ODDS may (may) increase with purchases. This is the theory I’m most confident in. It makes the most logical sense and anecdotally I’ve experienced it.
Supposedly your ODDS are also better if you’re a new account. I understand the logic and have heard second-hand anecdotal evidence as well.
I have seen zero evidence that how fast or slow you enter the LEO or Draw has an effect on your odds. None. I’m 99.99% sure this is hogwash, it doesn’t even make sense.
I haven’t seen evidence that how much you interact with the app (likes/favorites/shares/polls/watch videos) makes any difference.
Your payment method doesn’t affect your odds. However, it affects the likelihood of payment decline so I recommend PayPal or Apple Pay. Credit cards get declined (fraud protection) often.
The bottom line is that demand is way higher than supply. So, no matter what, our odds are extremely low. It’s mostly random. Whether you’re a user getting zero preference, so your odds are say 1/1000. Or you’re a new user getting better odds of let’s say 1/500. Odds are you’re still taking that L. Once you accept that, it becomes a bit less frustrating. It is still very frustrating, but at least you’re not confused too.
- 11,300
- 29,974
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2017
That’s not how probabilities work.
I know how probabilities work. How often you use the app or buy stuff has zero impact on how likely you are to hit on any sneaker. I know people who's girlfriends hit on exclusive access for limited shoes and didn't buy 1 thing on SNKRS their whole life. And I know people who purchase a bunch of GR **** on SNKRS and Nike.com and hit on one raffle or limited sneaker every year or two. So there is no formula that gets you more kicks
- 384
- 720
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2017
Thank you Concepts. 
- 5,502
- 13,444
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2017
You clearly don’t know how probabilities work. No one is talking about “gives you” more shoes. No one is talking about sure-fire, automatic wins. That’s not how it works. We’re talking about odds. You can have 1/2 odds and lose. You can have 1/2,000,000 odds and win. The winning and losing doesn’t change the fact that one person had better odds.ODDS. Probability. Chance.
Also, your friend getting early access without making a single purchase matches the theory that Nike is currently favoring new users. Which makes sense - give them a W, get them hooked. Obviously these are just theories. Your personal example certainly doesn’t negate anything, you’re just 1 person. We’re dealing with hundreds of thousands of accounts.
- 11,300
- 29,974
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2017
I said nothing about the people getting exclusive access being new accounts. I said they never purchased anything. They made accounts to enter raffles for my friends and never won or purchased anything and would randomly get exclusive access months later.
And you're explaining odds by saying you can win more with less odds. Uhhh ok? So if you have 1/100,000 odds to win a raffle or limited launch by purchasing more and someone purchases less often and has 1/500,000 odds to win shouldn't you have more limited wins than someone who buys less?
- 10,843
- 16,016
- Joined
- Jun 25, 2013
Guess it's mission accomplished if ndc was just testing yall..
- 5,502
- 13,444
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2017
Fair enough on your point about your friend. Again, it’s still mostly random.
No, when dealing with such low probability and a small amount of accounts there isn’t a “should have more wins.” If you look across ALL Snkrs accounts then yes you may see that. But when you’re comparing a small amount of accounts amongst friends then no. Unless you’re analyzing over 2000 accounts (I pulled that number out of thin air to give a general idea) then your data or observations aren’t statistically significant.
